What To Do With Pakistan

Let's break this into nice bullets

• Pakistan has nukes
• Pakistan is key to NATO strat. in Astan
• Pakistan has given key intel in the past that has been VERY helpful

BUT

• Clearly they are at least playing both sides'
• Here and SA are where the real problems are but they of course pose their own very uniuqe set of issues

Now I don't care we violated their sovrigenty, certain perks come with being a superpower and occasionaly breaking down the door is one them.
For me #1 priority is making sure the nukes are safe and this supercedes all other concerns

We should support the civilian government in its effort to rein in the ISI in any way we can, possibly with aid restrictions.

In particular its intelligence services seems to be playing a game of counter balancing USA dollars against USA influence (which it understandably wants to substitute for Pakistani influence). And unlike the USA they have it comparatively easy: they don't need to spend billions just to stay in the game, they only need to hold out for longer and they can convert your efforts into cash.

The aid is the key card that can be played.

To give money is a dreadful idea as it'll just go missing.
To give very high tech stuff is probably a waste. Upkeep will be tough, and it'll break.
But to give a load of low(er) tech stuff will likely be used in equipping other groups.
If invested in Education, it'd be spun as Western propaganda.
So, I would say the money would be best spent on infrastructure where it goes to the Civilian government (boosting their clout) and helps things in a non-specific way.

I don't see how the nukes can be kept safe easily - but then the fall of the USSR was managed so clearly there are ways.

~:smoking:

I'm having a really hard time believing that they didn't know bin Laden was right near one of their military academies. I think we should stop giving them money. We probably don't know what they're doing with it. The most important thing is to keep the nukes in check. I'm concerned that one day Pakistan and India will go to war.

Stop aid = no routes into Afghanistan for resupply. It would probably give much more clout to the ISI, and most likely more help to our enemies.

I personally believe that some people knew that Bin Laden was there - but I doubt everyone knew. There's a good chance the Military (or ISI) didn't think that the civilian government needed to know. Records of where money go in that place are so poor, it'd be easy to give him a stipend and no-one know about it.

~:smoking:

I can't imagine anyone who was not an Al Qaida sympathiser keeping knowledge of Bin Laden's whereabouts secret. It's just too big a secret - one would imagine someone would talk. While it is bizarre that he was hiding out near Pakistan's West Point, I don't think that points to official collusion. Looking at the compound with its enormous walls (and even walled off balcony), it's quite conceivable he was genuinely hidden. I guess you don't become head of a secret terror network by being sloppy with your own security (although his courier still used a mobile). It's still rather weird, but closer to those Austrian men keeping girls locked up for years in their basements in respectable neighbourhoods than to an ISI conspiracy imo.

As to what to do with Pakistan, I don't have any simple answers. But whatever it is, I would focus on the hearts and minds of the Pakistan people. From what I understand, polls imply they are one of the most anti-American populations on the planet. Whatever government arises from that - military dictator, civilian, ISI state within a state, whatever - is going to be problematic. I don't know how to win their hearts and minds, although somehow I suspect US drone strikes will not. Supporting their emerging democracy, their legal system, their education system and their economy would be the areas I would focus on. Give their people enough legitimate outlets for their energies, that self-destructive AQ philosophies don't seem attractive.