Mashaei-gate OR "What is going on in Iran?"

Well, the title has it all folks. For those of you that have not closely followed the state of Iranian politics throughout the last couple of months, something funky has been going down in Tehran, and it don't look good.

A short summary of the state of Iranian politics since the presidential elections of 2009:

June/July 2009: supposedly wins the elections; opponents Mousavi and Karroubi reject this; sparks widespread protests
July 2009: After several weeks of protests, Ahmadinejad seems to have settled down into his position as president
July 17: Ahmadinejad names Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei as the First Vice President of Iran. Rahim-Mashaei's appointment sparks protests from hardliner clergymen
July 24: Rahim-Mashaei finally resigns as First Vice President. Ahmadinejad then names him Chief of Staff, making him one of the most powerful men in Iran
April 2011: Rahim-Mashaei resigns (forced to resign?) as Chief of Staff

So who is this Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei character? A quick glance at Wikipedia tells us he is something of a deviant in conversative Iranian society; he has said several things that the hardliner Islamic clergy would likely not agree with, such as:

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No nation in the world is our enemy, Iran is a friend of the nation in the United States and in Israel, and this is an honor. We view the American nation as one with the greatest nations of the world.

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and

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The era of Islamism has come to an end. We had an Islamic revolution in 1979. But the era of Islamism is finished.

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Apart from that, he was a member of the Revolutionary Guard during the eight-year Iran-Iraq and was one of Ahmadinejad's comrades and closest personal friends during that war. His daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son. In general, he appears to be a pretty interesting character who seems to have more in common with Ataturk than with Khomeini.

Regardless, Mashaei appears to have a huge influence on Ahmadinejad, likely responsible for the sacking of two ministers of intelligence. Quoting from an article by Robert Fisk, who is currently reporting from Tehran (bolded by me):

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Originally Posted by Robert Fisk for The Independent, 28/06/'11

Another opponent remarked: "People began to ask Ahmadinejad to get rid of Rahim Mashaee; even the 'marja', the highest Shia religious authority, asked him to. We thought Ahmadinejad would give way. But he didn't. Anyone in the cabinet who criticised Rahim-Mashaee got fired. They would criticise him one day – and the next day they didn't have a job. So in Iran today, some people say that Rahim-Mashaee has cast some kind of spell over Ahmadinejad – that he has captured Ahmadinejad's mind. It's unusual for anyone to resist all this pressure."

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Khamenei continued to publically support the president, but was said to be deeply angered by his behaviour. More trouble arose when Ahmadinejad decided to fire his new intelligence minister, Heydar Moslehi, less than two months ago after he too, criticised Rahim Mashaee. Infuriated, Ayatollah Khamenei wrote another letter, this time directly to Moslehi, saying that he "needs to continue in his post". His dismissal was never officially revealed and Moslehi has been re-instated.

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(Full link: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion...d-2303671.html)


And now, three of Mashaei's closest allies have been arrested on allegations of corruption. What is going on in the shadowy backrooms in Tehran and Qom? What was Ahmadinejad's purpose in repeatedly angering Ayatollah Khamenei? Was it out of loyalty to his friend, Mashaei? Did he want to move away from the religious establishment as a reaction to the constant secularisation of the Iranian society? Or is there a more sinister reason, and is Mashaei something of a Rasputin, who seeks to take Iran in a stranglehold?

Who knows. But what I do know is that Iran is once again a place of great interest. We should probably stay tuned for more.

I enjoy the coming of the Fatawh

So he is reinstated?

We all know how the opposition dealt with Rasputin but if he is popular with the people that might topple the hard-liners.

I think they may be hanging on by a thread but brutal repression can make a difference

I think this is a shrewd power play. Ahmadinejad is a risk taker, a populist, and at his core, an egoist. Although his election was only secured through the intervention of the Ayatollah and his religious army, I think he sensed widespread dissatisfaction with the old order and a growing weakness in their power and influence. He's using Mashaei to challenge that waning power with the ultimate goal of reversing the relationship between the president and the Ayatollah, making the religious hardliners dependent on his patronage to maintain their unique position in society against shifting public opinion.

It's a bold move, but not completely unexpected coming from Ahmadinejad. His vision for Iran has always exceeded that of the Ayatollah. He may have just outmaneuvered him as well. Could Khomeni really fire his handpicked president? What if he won't go? Who does the military ultimately answer to in Iran? And how much authoritarian intervention will the Iranian people take before they are back on the streets, especially considering Ahmadinejad's popularity with the rural conservatives that prop up the religious regime?

Both men need each other, but who needs who more? I think at this critical juncture in both Iran and the region - where long established authoritarian regimes are being challenged like never before - the Ayatollah may actually need the cover of legitimacy the presidency offers more than the Ahmadinejad needs his camel gestapo. We'll see...

Reading the article by Fisk there it comes across the other way round if you ask me PJ, the religious elite have had enough of Ahmadinejad so there cutting him down to size so he cannot earmark any kind of successor. (he cant run in 2013) If Kahmenei does not intervene he might transfer his popularity to someone else and undermine the Ayatollah's powerbase.

I predict Ahmadinejad will miracle of miracles have a Pauline conversion or he is gone by the end of the year, some economic scandal will be fed to the media and game set and match Khamenei.