Getting Hot Part 2: The Golden Rule
Not that Golden Rule, which governs things at the interpersonal level, I mean the one world governments operate under... "He who has the gold makes the rules!"
China has decided to claim the East China Sea and now the South China sea as sovereign internal bodies of water/zones of control.
http://www.reuters.com/article/south...0UI1ZX20160105
Beyond the untold petroleum reserves and other natural resourcesdown there, they'll also be asserting control over trillions of dollars of international shipping which travels through that region, as well as effectively turn the Phillipines and Malaysia into vassal states while ruining the economies of Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and possibly Japan. Taiwan can kiss independence goodbye. Meanwhile the US seems strangely placid, almost like we owe the aggresive Chinese authorities something... Oh wait, we do!!!
Does anybody have a feel-good 'behind-the-scenes' analysis that points to a way out of this except for China getting greedier and greedier until the other nations in the region figure they have nothing left to lose and unite against them in open warfare?
I know, a bit glum on my part, but y'all do know that Japan modified their post-war constitution late last year to 1) remove size restrictions on its armed forces and 2) allow for forward operations of a non-defensive nature, right?
Re: Getting Hot Part 2: The Golden Rule
Another lynchpin of the regional balancing strategy that will only be possible to judge thoroughly in hindsight. Remember that there isn't much the US can do without escalating the (political) conflict and forcing it to the top of the world's attention. Besides the obvious drawbacks, such moves will only heighten the social impulses within China that encourage its government to take nationalist or irredentist stances, namely the long-term social destabilization of the nation and concomitant major policy shifts in the organization of the economy.
Ultimately, I don't see any information that we have a plausible medium-term alternative to shoring up the Pacific Rim cordon from Korea to Indochina along with the usual backroom stuff that must go on with China. Of course, Russia sees all this and it is why they currently prefer to cultivate new energy deals with Japan over China: the negotiations are more on-level and safer, Japan is much less of a political and economic competitor (than China), and they serve to weaken Japan's relationship with the United States insofar as they further energy and commodities trade from Russia to (perennially resource-poor) Japan. And certainly, having the world's largest economies preoccupied over a relatively-irrelevant (to Russia) territory is just fine with Putin, who has his sights set on the coming race for the Arctic zone.
Taiwan would basically be OK with Hong-Kongization and has been for years. The CCP isn't rushing here as they have time on their hands.
Re: Getting Hot Part 2: The Golden Rule
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Montmorency
Taiwan would basically be OK with Hong-Kongization and has been for years. The CCP isn't rushing here as they have time on their hands.
As it was originally laid out back in the 90's, sure, but I was under the impression that they are getting more and more hands-on in Hong Kong and that the local population has been becoming less enamored of their "special status". Am I incorrect in that? Would Taiwan still be okay with becoming "special status", if 'terms and conditions subject to change, without notice"?
Re: Getting Hot Part 2: The Golden Rule
Part of the Hong Kong situation is that locals have grown to resent the increasing presence of mainlanders (as individuals or corporations) in their workforce, business world, and intelligentsia. However, this was inevitable, just as with LA and New York becoming nexuses for American migrants as well as for strivers from across the world. While the Party will tend to bring Hong Kong's internal policies more in line with their broad plans (for instance, Xi Jinping has been centralizing power from regions across China during his office), Hong Kong is a relatively profitable and consolidated entity, as well as a good test case for whatever trend the party might want to investigate at a given moment, so there isn't much impetus to radically transform the governance or economy of the region. Sure, maybe mainlanders and mainland business will continue become a stronger lobby as they become a larger proportion of the population or gain more control of property and enterprise, but that's more of a sociological question.
One contentious issue over (quasi-)reunification for Taiwan would be what happens with the Taiwanese military; the United States has some interest in that aspect too given its history with military aid to Taiwan. However, even the Pentagon hawks have come to terms with Taiwan Finlandizing as a minimum in the future (apologies for all the coarse political coinages).
Re: Getting Hot Part 2: The Golden Rule
Sorry, Finlandizing? Not familiar with that term.
Re: Getting Hot Part 2: The Golden Rule
A stronger country influencing a weaker country. The weaker country retains its independence and political system but basically refrains from doing anything contrary to the interests of the stronger country.
Examples are Soviet Union and Finland (hence the name) and USA and many Latin and South American countries.
Re: Getting Hot Part 2: The Golden Rule
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Don Corleone
As it was originally laid out back in the 90's, sure, but I was under the impression that they are getting more and more hands-on in Hong Kong and that the local population has been becoming less enamored of their "special status". Am I incorrect in that? Would Taiwan still be okay with becoming "special status", if 'terms and conditions subject to change, without notice"?
The governance of Hong Kong has been pretty much unchanged since 1997, with the impetus for change coming from democrats. The main beef Hong Kong has with mainland China is, as Montmorency says, xenophobia on the part of Hong Kongers. After looking down on the mainland for generations, they don't appreciate having mainlanders visit on level terms.
Re: Getting Hot Part 2: The Golden Rule
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pannonian
The governance of Hong Kong has been pretty much unchanged since 1997, with the impetus for change coming from democrats. The main beef Hong Kong has with mainland China is, as Montmorency says, xenophobia on the part of Hong Kongers. After looking down on the mainland for generations, they don't appreciate having mainlanders visit on level terms.
Hell of a way to whitewash a situation.
Care to explain the location of the missing booksellers for instance? Or is your information not nuanced enough to know the real turmoil in yellow umbrella HK?
