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Can Muslim Insurgencies ever be put down permanently?
It seems that Muslim Insurgents for the most part have a zeal and tenacity that the average insurgent of a non-Muslim persuasion would not.
It seems these qualities of Muslim Insurgents make them the best there is when it comes to doing the job of being Insurgents. As re-surging later if their Insurgent Movement is put down temporarily.
Is this an accurate analysis?
Can they be "put down" permanently? No. Can they be stopped in other ways? Yes.
Remove some of those ridiculous ROEs and the American military could put an end to both insurgencies we're facing in about a month. :yes:
No you cant destroy an idea.
I'm curious on what you base this analysis on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Navaros
IMO putting down a Muslim insurgency is about as hard as putting down a non-Muslim one and that is generally quite hard, especially that permanently part (that said, it can take a century or two for the resurging to come).
As long as the idea is alive and well, there's always a risk, but ideas can be forgotten and people persuaded to not follow the idea (and depending on method, can eventually make people forget the idea).
So any insurgence can be put down, but it's not easy.
“It seems that Muslim Insurgents for the most part have a zeal and tenacity that the average insurgent of a non-Muslim persuasion would not”; Comparing to North Vietnam Communists, they still have so catch-up to do…
Both France and England occupied many Muslim Countries in the past, and broke any resistance in theses countries then occupied them during around one century without getting too much troubles… But the times were different. However, you assumption has still to be prove…
three good replies and one fruitcake one .
the 3 good replies pretty much answer the question .
:oops: Brenus replied too .........in each case the insurgencies resurfaced , and since you mention Vietnam it is worth pointing out that when France applied the lessons it learned there in Algeria they put down the insurgency quickly and completely ....but it came back very quickly and much much bigger and badder.Quote:
Both France and England occupied many Muslim Countries in the past, and broke any resistance in theses countries then occupied them during around one century without getting too much troubles
A good exampe of why the fruitcake answer is just soooooo silly .
The main reason for having a Muslim insurgency is that their perception in the Muslim World is that the Western World has no respect for Muslim traditions and thus only want to change the customs of the Muslims to fit Western ideals. The only way that the western world can even come remotely to stopping insurgencies is if this perception is stopped which would require a tremendous amount of effort and no doubt some severe revamping of current foreign policies. Given our politician's stubborness regarding the Middle East, I doubt that will happen anytime soon
“....in each case the insurgencies resurfaced”: Yep, but not as such. My point was Muslim Countries are not more (or less) resilient.
And if you considered that the Algerian conquest was over in 1857, and the beginning of the War of Independence started in 1954, that give around 100 years of peace, with no nationalist or religious insurrection.
“and since you mention Vietnam it is worth pointing out that when France applied the lessons it learned there in Algeria they put down the insurgency quickly and completely”: Yes and no. In Indochina, the French re-learn what was to fight a guerrilla war. But the Algerians never succeeded really to reach the level when the guerrilla becomes an army: The Vietminh having 5 divisions in DBP, for ex (or in Na San).
For me, a successful anti-guerrilla war was the one during the French Revolution, the Republican against the Chouans.
“but it came back very quickly and much much bigger and badder.” Not really again. But political decision was made (decolonisation and Independence recognised) so no need of more troops.
Leave their countries and they cease to exist, as they've won. But no-one will ever do that (Israel to start with).Quote:
Can Muslim Insurgencies ever be put down permanently?
As long as they think their countries are occupied they will fight, you would do the same. It's not just muslims. Would America invade (stupid example:) Norway, the Norwegians won't just say: "ah well, ok, take our country". They will fight for it, and guerilla warfare is the best as you can't lose if you do it well.
Yes, but during the years of the crusades we were marching around in plate armour, potential rebels were not. Hardly a fair game i think. This time round though they have AK's and plastic-explosives. This time we're more evenly matched.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brenus
its not about their religion. its about people wanting freedom from oppression, and that can't be defeated. as someone else said, you cant beat an idea. (unless you make concessions and let other ideas take hold).
The best examples of winning insurgencies are with the brits in N.I. It wasnt until they put away the armor and guns and stayed away from the civilians that people started getting jobs and making money and deciding that they shouldnt go blow up brits tonight because they had work in the morning.
What ???????Quote:
And if you considered that the Algerian conquest was over in 1857, and the beginning of the War of Independence started in 1954, that give around 100 years of peace, with no nationalist or religious insurrection.
Well you moved the date from 1839 to 1857 so that counts out 3 campaigns , but then it carried on in the 1860s again in the 70s and the tuareg terriroties carried on till the turn of the century , then the nationalists resurfaced in the 20's the 30's again in the 40's and the French finally gave up in the 50's ...so where is this hunderd yeas of peace you talk of ? even with mass killings and deportaion , the seizure and settlement of land , even with a very long standing reign of brutal military repression they couldn't permanently put down the locals .
Though of course the lesson there is that the brutality repression and colonisation feeds the re-emergence of insurgency instead of stopping it
For this kind of issue, binary forced choice questions suck.
You present me with one option, "put down," and its negation. Thanks a whole hill of beans.
Question construction forces a "no" answer since your phrasing implies complete removal of such an insurgency. Even historically successful counter-insurgency efforts have not been that "sweeping."
How about:
Yes, such insurgencies can be defeated.
Yes, such insurgencies can be marginalized/minimized if not completely defeated.
Yes, such insurgencies can be marginalized/minimized if not completely defeated, but most of the success must be non-military if it is to be lasting.
No, it is impossible to defeat an idea save by deploying a better idea. Military action in such a context is meaningless waste.
No, such insurgencies must be accomodated/suborned because defeat is impossible.
No, such insurgencies can only wither away from lack of interest, nothing can actually defeat them.
You can add GAH for the poll spoofers if you wish.
Who mentioned the crusades?Quote:
Originally Posted by currywurry
And why (or how) is plate armour an advantage in, say, the Middle East or southern Asia?
Pure wishful thinking. Look back at other counterinsurgencies, and you'll see that the average length is 9-10 years. Regardless of the ROEs.Quote:
Originally Posted by PanzerJager
In an insurgency the people are the terrain; harsher methods do not equate victory. Unless, of course, you're talking about killing everybody. Yup, that would end a guerrilla war, as well as everything else.
I say 'yes' you can put down insurgencies.
Prime Examples:
Native Americans.They haven't risen in rebellion ever since the Indian Wars in the 19th Century.
Philippines. We smashed their guerrilla war after years of harsh conflict in the area. However, in the end, we got more people into jobs, and when you have a family to care for with a steady income, you become less suicidal.
Insurgencies can be defeated if they commit a mistake. They aren't perfect, and an example would be in Italy. The Red Brigades (I think) killed a minister of state who was very popular. Everyone turned on the Brigades and it soon died.
Peru is an example I think.
Insurgencies can be put down, but using blunt military force is a bad way to do it.
uh, with the Indians and the Philippines we massacred entire populations to achieve victory, those standards are unacceptable today, and should have been then. We cant walk into Iraqi villages like we did in the Philippines and order "kill every boy over 11 years of age".
I said Insurgencies can be put down, and proved why.
You can destroy an insurgency.
Now if you don't go by my example, that is okay.
Also, Zak, we would probably just lock all the Sunni's into concentration camps.
Terrorism requires something like 10% tacit support minimum or it dies.
The key is to get unemployment under 10% and to increase living standards for all. If life is good people will generally go with the flow. Your average family man only picks up a gun when his friends start dieing.
we can, it would not be pleasant or very peaceful but in the end there will be no more muslims... uh muslim insurgents i meant to say.
(that was a joke srry if it offended you or any of your Islamic freinds.)
Brenus mentioned French and English occupation of Middle Eastern countries in the past, so i presume he is referencing the crusades.Quote:
Originally Posted by Slyspy
He would be referring to post-Ottoman Empire when the Middle East was divided between the British (Iraq, Egypt) and French (Palestine, Lebanon).
“Well you moved the date from 1839 to 1857 so that counts out 3 campaigns” What I was saying is the end of the conquest of Algeria is in 1857. The resistance during the conquest is as normal as in others countries…
“but then it carried on in the 1860s again in the 70s and the Tuareg territories carried on till the turn of the century , then the nationalists resurfaced in the 20's the 30's again in the 40's and the French finally gave up in the 50's ...so where is this hundred yeas of peace you talk of ?” Can you just see what happened in the same time in France itself? You will find more unrests and blood than (just think Commune de Paris or the Revolt of the Cannuts in Lyon) in the Algerian Territory.
It didn’t frighten or put in danger the French grip on Algeria (and Tunisia, Protectorate on Morocco, etc). So, yes, it was a period of peace, not complete, but no massive insurrection kind of Mahdi of Khartoum.
“even with mass killings and deportation , the seizure and settlement of land , even with a very long standing reign of brutal military repression they couldn't permanently put down the locals .” No, you can’t, but again that was a “normal” procedure at these times. Again, all the Communards, survivors of the killing were deported either in Algeria or New Caledonia, as Louise Labbe, for ex.
But the repression was so hard that it took a long time to get a viable insurrectional movement…
”Though of course the lesson there is that the brutality repression and colonisation feeds the re-emergence of insurgency instead of stopping it”: Her, I should say the lesson is before to start a war, be sure you had a plan, a goal. Algeria is a good example of what can happen when you have no idea what to do and just react to events.
“Brenus mentioned French and English occupation of Middle Eastern countries in the past, so i presume he is referencing the crusades.” No, I was referring to the Colonial empires of both countries: Sudan, India/Pakistan, Egypt etc for the English, North Africa (mainly) for the French.
First, it seems that terrorism is being lumped in with guerrilla warfare. They are not the same; and though guerrillas may employ terrorist tactics - it doesnot make a terrorist a guerrilla fighter.
Of interest:
http://www.marxists.org/reference/ar...rilla-warfare/
See Chapters one (ch01) and three specifically, though I suspect many here have read them and others will view them as to lengthy to take the time.
Distinguishing Terrorism from Guerrilla Warfare:
http://www.ornery.org/essays/2004-03-10-1.html
Can we (USA) win in Iraq, or the M-E? No., but we can be influential by employing economic insentives and diplomacy - military means are subjective and counterproductive. Can the Iraqis' win. Yes. It is more than a matter of symatics - it is a matter that only the people of a land can make it a viable nation. No amount of outside interference can change the principle that a nation is its people - not the outsiders (insurgents if you wish)- it is the people that must decide what form of leadership they want. They can be complacent and allow a military dictatorship, or organize despite secular differrences to create a viable political platform - as yet a leader has not risen there to do this (or when he has he was assassinated).
The Muslim insurgency in Iraq is being sponsored by Syria and Iran, to say nothing of Saudia Arabia interests. Can we defeat those sponsoring them, or force them to comply with our political agenda in the region? No and no. Sure we could invade theses nations - but, what would we gain? The Bushys' have proven that the more pressure (economic or military threats) we attempt against Iran or Syria, the more we bring out the nationalism of their populaces. We'ld have been better off keeping our mouths shut as to implying an "axis-of-evil" or "with us, or against us" rhetoric of confrontation. These comments might play well in Des Moines, but not on the world stage.
To acheive any goal, we must first come to terms that thes insurgents do not equate to guerrilla in warfare, but are nothing more than outside agitators that are nothing more than pawns employed by others for their own sovereign goals. Cease equating them with guerrillas that have political goals and define them as the thugs they are.
Can we defeat terrorism? Sure, as soon as the $Billionairs$ and first world governments determine that sharing the wealth with the lesser peoples and countries is advantageous. Then again, WAR is big business. So, when pigs fly.
:balloon2:
everything has its time, and then fades.
some quicker than others depending on how much of a public failure they are perceived to be.
"Death solves all problems. No man, no problem."
Ideas can be killed off quite easily, although you'll need a genocide.
What is that? Stalin?
"Muslim" insurgency? That's the key word; Muslim. The foundation of Islam is violence, so no, you can never put down "Muslim" insugency because violence is too deeply rooted in this belief system.