Things heating up...(Kosovo)

It seems that February might be D-Month for Kosovo. Most regional politicians have stated the the Kosovo Parliament declare independance during this month (http://en.rian.ru/world/20080204/98356616.html).

Although this is not certain, since there hadn't been any strong voices of support from the US or EU save the usual rhetorics how that could be the only solution that they've been repeating for some time now, there is a strong possibility that Kosovo might declare independence unilateraly, and wait for recognition from individual countries, rather than UN as a whole.

Most EU countries support Kosovo independance, but the "union" is not "united" completely. Some countries, like Romania, Spain and Slovakia have already stated that they are against it, among others. Greece is also not too keen on this scenario, as it deals with Albanian nationalism in it's territory, albeit in a more mild form. EU is about to send a police and justice mission to Kosovo, which is seen as a prelude for independence by the prime minister, Kostunica and his DSS party. Kostunica threatened that Serbia won't sign pre-agreement for membership in the EU if it sends the mission (which is quite a precedent in itself - an eastern European country saying we won't join if you do this, usually it was the other way around :laugh4:). The problem is that Kostunica is in coallition with Tadic's DS party which is ready to sign the agreement with EU no matter what happens with the mission.

If Kosovo do proclaim its independence after the arrival of EU mission, still there is a question what will be Serbia's response. All three top politicians in Serbia - Kostunica (DSS party), Tadic (DS) and Nikolic (SRS), are against independance, but their positions differ when it comes to response. Tadic likely won't do anything to jeopardize EU membership, so his response would be probably "ok, let's move on"... Kostunica is likely to oppose it stronly by political means, and Nikolic would do likewise. If Kosovo declares independance it could happen that DSS breaks of with DS and instead form a goverment with SRS (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/...ews/Serbia.php). Military response is out of the question in any scenario since there is no public support for it, and Serbia's military is in no shape to actively threaten anything.

Political response probably means blocking Kosovo in all international and European institutions Serbia is a member of. That by itself wouldn't mean too much, but Russia has expressed that it, too, would block Kosovo everywhere and that it would reconsider it's position on self-proclaimed independent regions in the future (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080204/98319651.htmlhtml).

As the title says, things are heating up. What's going to happen and what should happen? Are we looking at another Cyprus? Is this finally formally relegating UN to the status of impotent organization? Will Kosovo be able to exist if it's blocked by several countries in the region? Is this finally show EU double standards since it's position on the ex-yu conflict was supposed to be the same?

An experct from the speech by Lord Owen at the council of Europe in 1992:

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The London Conference laid down that the Tito map was sacrosanct unless changed by mutual agreement I have yet to see any sign of change in that map by mutual agreement. Let us take that map as our point of reference in the negotiations. If we do that, we accept that the peoples of different nations will live in different countries — that Serbs will live in Croatia, Serbs and Croats will live in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Albanians will live in Serbia and Montenegro, and that Muslims and Hungarians will live in Serbia and Montenegro.

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I think Serbia should call Russian soldiers for something like Peaceful Mission.
Russia will never leave Serbia and help holding Kosovo with Serbia. Of course officially it will be neutral country which help people of Kosovo, while EU is not able to do anything (like we can see on Czad example).

On the other hand EU is so scared about gas, that they will do nothing exept yelling for a 2 or 3 weeks. Albania won't do anything because they are scared of Russians too.

There is one problem - when Russian soldiers are arriving into one place, they don't like leaving it. So you should have been prepared for a long neighbourhood.

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

As the title says, things are heating up. What's going to happen and what should happen? Are we looking at another Cyprus? Is this finally formally relegating UN to the status of impotent organization? Will Kosovo be able to exist if it's blocked by several countries in the region? Is this finally show EU double standards since it's position on the ex-yu conflict was supposed to be the same?

An experct from the speech by Lord Owen at the council of Europe in 1992:

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The United Nations has shown itself to be falling into the imptent stage for several years, I dont think Kosovo will cause it to be ruled as a formal status. To much potential still exists for the United Nations if they can pull their collective heads out of their rear-ends.

Now the interesting position is what will the European Union do in regards to an independence declaration by Kosovo.

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Originally Posted by Redleg

The United Nations has shown itself to be falling into the imptent stage for several years, I dont think Kosovo will cause it to be ruled as a formal status. To much potential still exists for the United Nations if they can pull their collective heads out of their rear-ends.

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I'd have thought that certain countries would be glad that there is no imminent danger of the UN becoming the government of the world.

i would laugh out loud if russia announced a peace-keeping mission to the serb dominated north of kosovo, after which Serbia encourages the absent kosovar serbs to return, and then quietly annexes the north of kosovo in a year or two's time.

Serbia did not annex anything - Kosovo was and is part of Serbia.

i know, and i understand, but the reality is that kosovo IS about to declare independance, much as i am unhappy with it as i support the principle of the sovereign nation state.

i would laugh if serbia worked with russia and cooked up a plan that allowed them to retain as much of kosovo as possible, it would be one in the eye for the EU, and somewhat less painful a result for serbia.

I feel sorry for Serbia - it's like New England seceeding from the US or Rome from Italy - as Kosovo contains all their history and it's where their kings were crowned.

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Originally Posted by Redleg

Now the interesting position is what will the European Union do in regards to an independence declaration by Kosovo.

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That will be interesting indeed. EU still can't recognize Kosovo as a single political entity, it has to be done by individual countries within the EU. At least five member countries have explicitly stated that they won't recognize Kosovo under any circumnstance, and many other member states aren't too keen on it too, but the Big Three (Germany, France, UK) are ready to recognize it. UK has been pushing for independent Kosovo for quite some time now. I'm not sure why, since they could potentialy end up in the similar situation, but that's another point. France and Germany weren't so thrilled by the idea, but I'm guessing they don't consider Kosovo so important that they want to cross the US.
What is a suprise for me, is that Slovenia, which is now holding council presidency, is so fervently in favour of independence. Serbia was the biggest market for their products in ex-Yu, and Slovenia had undertaken serious and expensive steps to increase its share in the Serbian market in the last decade. This is gonna seriously affect Serbian-Slovenian relationship

Serbian foreign affairs minister announced that there are about 100 countries in the world that won't recognize independent Kosovo. How accurate is his assesment, I can't say, but it is clear that countries are very divided on how should this be handled. There is a good chance that Kosovo ends up as a black spot in Europe, pretty much cut off by many of it's neighbours.

Also it is interesting to say that the idea of joining EU is becoming less and less popular in Serbia. Around the year 2000, when Milosevic lost the elections, more than 85% of the population was in favour of joining EU. Now it's between 69% and 72%. But 75% of the population said that it wasn't ready to trade Kosovo for EU membership...

What the heck is the point of splitting up anyway? Serbia is not going to vapourize.

One thing I do not get is why in the world would EU be so eager to split Serbia. Why create yet another muslim state in Europe? Isn't Albania enough along with Bosnia? Plus, Albanians already have a country, why would they need two?

Kosovar independence is an all-around bad idea that will come back to bite Europe.

What I find interesting is it is the first time in Europe from the end of WW2 that a country will be created by an act of war…

I agree with previous posts. We can't agree on giving Kosovo Albanians only because they emigrated there and then had 10 children for each. If they want their own state, they should go to Albania.

At the moment Albanians from Kosovo are probably biggest enemies of stabilisation on Balkans. Don't you remember 2002 when they tried to invade Macedonia?

Well that is the bugbear of democracy, majority rule. So if the majority want to go they can. Now if it does democratically declare independence the only political method left to keep it part of Serbia is war.

So under the same principle northern part of Kosovo, where Serbs are a majority, can secede from Kosovo? And is there going to be an end to that? Or are borders gonna be changed every couple of decades when ethnic structure changes in some areas?

Don't you think that could encourage ethnic cleansing? Clean the area of undesirable ethinc groups and claim it as your own by majority of voices...

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Originally Posted by KrooK

I agree with previous posts. We can't agree on giving Kosovo Albanians only because they emigrated there and then had 10 children for each. If they want their own state, they should go to Albania.

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I agree with KrooK? :inquisitive:

Well, we can safely say the world will end any second now. ~:)

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Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars

I agree with KrooK? :inquisitive:

Well, we can safely say the world will end any second now. ~:)

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Hmm...

He does have point under that blatant attack against Kosovans, If Albania is already there, why not go there? It really will end up become a cycle of idiocy, when will Wessex gain indepenence from England or something?

In fact having the northern Kosovan Serbs secede from Kosovo would be very funny.

I think it would be wise of the EU to think about relations with Russia before making decisions on Kosovo.

Also IMHO all the stufffrom the media is really, really Kosovan orientated. I mean it's like they never did anything bad either.

“Don't you remember 2002 when they tried to invade Macedonia?” They didn’t.
They live here, and are a huge minority (Gostivar, Tetovo going up to South to Ohrid).

“Well that is the bugbear of democracy, majority rule. So if the majority want to go they can. Now if it does democratically declare independence the only political method left to keep it part of Serbia is war.” Well, these very democratic rules didn’t apply for the Serbs in Croatia (Knin, Vukovar) and Bosnia (Doboj, Derventa, etc) where they represented 90 to 95 % of the population and were bombed to stay in Recognised Countries.
And it won’t apply to the Serbs of Kosovo…

So basically democracy is NOT for the Serbs…:inquisitive:

“We can't agree on giving Kosovo Albanians only because they emigrated there and then had 10 children for each”: Absolute Serbian Extremist (and Macedonian, Croatian and Bosnian) propaganda. Albanians are nice people (I worked with them), mostly educated, speaking few languages, and nationalists as all the others. So, yes they have their dream of a great Albania and played their cards very well. However, no need of this kind of ….

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Originally Posted by Bopa the Magyar

Hmm...

He does have point under that blatant attack against Kosovans, If Albania is already there, why not go there? It really will end up become a cycle of idiocy, when will Wessex gain indepenence from England or something?

In fact having the northern Kosovan Serbs secede from Kosovo would be very funny.

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agreed, this is wha i alluded to above. :D

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Absolute Serbian Extremist (and Macedonian, Croatian and Bosnian) propaganda. Albanians are nice people (I worked with them), mostly educated, speaking few languages, and nationalists as all the others. So, yes they have their dream of a great Albania and played their cards very well. However, no need of this kind of ….

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Yep - add slave traders, prostitutes, mafia, drug dealers and rest. Ahh and of course smugglers of everything. That kind of dreams are always being finished into sea of blood. Great Germany, Great Ukraine, Great Bulgaria, Great France.
What did they end?

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They didn’t.
They live here, and are a huge minority (Gostivar, Tetovo going up to South to Ohrid).

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They were about 1/6 of citizens of Macedonia. After leaving Kosovo their number increases to 1/3. Then they demand majority changes into Macedonia, and when democratically elected government did not agreed, they tried to take control over Macedonia. Luckily a bit earlier Macedonians stopped then next to capital Skopje.

“add slave traders, prostitutes, mafia, drug dealers and rest”: Yep, they have their mafia. Not the only one… However to put all a population in the same bag is too far to push…
That could be said for every nation…:laugh4:

“They were about 1/6 of citizens of Macedonia.” Where did you pick your figures? Even if I don’t think they are not near 50% of the Macedonian population they represent probably 40 %. And in some towns they are the majority…
The problem is in Macedonia, like in Kosovo, the Albanians always refused to participate in a census, which allow them to play on that after (like the 2 millions in Kosovo which is just a imaginary figure).
However, it is still untrue to pretend:
1: Albanians invaded Macedonia (they lived here for centuries)
2: They demand majority change after NATO campaign.
They demanded a fair part of post in police, administration etc, based on ethnicity. They wanted Albanians recognised as a second official language and others kind of things.
It is true that some of their leaders believed that the West will give to them what it gave to the Kosovars but it failed for several reasons…

“Luckily a bit earlier Macedonians stopped then next to capital Skopje.” Albanians are living in Skopje…
They were “stopped” at a Petrol Station, burned probably for other reason that political…
What the Macedonians you are speaking about? The Serbian minority, the Turks, the Egyptians (yes they are some people claiming to be Egyptians and they base their claim on an Isis representation), the Bulgarians etc. And all these minorities are fed-up of the rows between Albanians and Macedonians…
The “war” in Macedonia was more riots than something else; the aim was to initiate a NATO intervention, as the Albanians Nationalists succeeded to do in Kosovo. You have to remember that all these leaders were taught in a Communist regime, where the political game is the goal to reach… And they are good at it. You probably have some in Poland…

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

agreed, this is wha i alluded to above. :D

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That's actually what ex prime minister of Serbia suggested. The minute after Kosovo "declares" independence, northern Serbian municipalities should do the same, using the exact same text with exactly the same arguments, just switching positions of the words "albanians" and "serbs".

I assume that N. Kosovo would then opt for annexation with Serbia making it a really stupid circle for them do to the Albanians of Kosovo.

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

That's actually what ex prime minister of Serbia suggested. The minute after Kosovo "declares" independence, northern Serbian municipalities should do the same, using the exact same text with exactly the same arguments, just switching positions of the words "albanians" and "serbs".

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I would be delighted if the Serbs, with Russian backing, marched into northern Kosovo on February the 18th and annexed a portion of the newly 'independent' Kosovo to an area not in excess of the pre-2000 Kosovar-Serb population as a proportion of the total population.

I, as a British Atlanticist, would cheers the Serbs and the Russians on, because a post-sovereign Nation State is not going to be a pretty place for the rest of us in the decades to come.

Kosovo is Serbian national territory, and should remain so, but in the absence of this option Serbia should look after its Serbs in what will otherwise become forign territory.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

I would be delighted if the Serbs, with Russian backing, marched into northern Kosovo on February the 18th and annexed a portion of the newly 'independent' Kosovo to an area not in excess of the pre-2000 Kosovar-Serb population as a proportion of the total population.

I, as a British Atlanticist, would cheers the Serbs and the Russians on, because a post-sovereign Nation State is not going to be a pretty place for the rest of us in the decades to come.

Kosovo is Serbian national territory, and should remain so, but in the absence of this option Serbia should look after its Serbs in what will otherwise become forign territory.

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I agree.

To be honest, I'd be relieved if the Sami people took a piece of northern Norway and declared independence, as long as it means no more Sami-TV on the state channel. :2thumbsup:

If Kosovo should not be split up because the Kosovo-Albanians could go to Albania, then the US should merge with the UK again. :2thumbsup:

The dumb part about the split-up, is that it only delay a problem, the Serbs will not dissapear.

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Kosovo is Serbian national territory, and should remain so, but in the absence of this option Serbia should look after its Serbs in what will otherwise become forign territory.

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Where the albanians make up the majority, no one cares about "Serbian national territory", whatever that is supposed to be good for.

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Originally Posted by Viking

The dumb part about the split-up, is that it only delay a problem, the Serbs will not dissapear.

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Actually, they've beeb disappearing at a steady pace for quite awhile now. People tend to try and stay where they were born, where their house is and where their friends and family are, but I guess there is a limit of how many times you can see your kids going to school in an armoured bus, with bars on the windows and with military escort...

In Pristina there was about 40,000 Serbs, now there are only several hundreds, most of them now living together in a few apartment buildings under KFOR guard, kids playing football in the halls because they can't go outside. Anyone interested in a documentary - part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4, part 5, part 6

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Originally Posted by Viking

Where the albanians make up the majority, no one cares about "Serbian national territory", whatever that is supposed to be good for.

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??? :dizzy2:

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Originally Posted by Sarmatian

Actually, they've beeb disappearing at a steady pace for quite awhile now. People tend to try and stay where they were born, where their house is and where their friends and family are, but I guess there is a limit of how many times you can see your kids going to school in an armoured bus, with bars on the windows and with military escort...

In Pristina there was about 40,000 Serbs, now there are only several hundreds, most of them now living together in a few apartment buildings under KFOR guard, kids playing football in the halls because they can't go outside. Anyone interested in a documentary - part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4, part 5, part 6

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They'll still be found in Serbia.

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??? :dizzy2:

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It's the people who lives on the lands that really matters. A state is there to serve, not to control for the purpose of controlling.

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Originally Posted by KrooK

Yep - add slave traders, prostitutes, mafia, drug dealers and rest. Ahh and of course smugglers of everything.

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To someone from western europe, those words can be used to describe any country/group east of germany and austria, like poles, the baltic, the entire balkan, russians etc. I find it funny when they use those words on each other...

It's like a dumpster really; to someone outside the dumpster, it seems pointless to find the cleanest place in the dumpster, it's a dump anyway.

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Originally Posted by Viking

To be honest, I'd be relieved if the Sami people took a piece of northern Norway and declared independence, as long as it means no more Sami-TV on the state channel. :2thumbsup:

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I say we put a huge wall on Dovre, with a one-way road through it - anyone dumb enough to go north won't be allowed back.