Oh yeah, Sorry about that Crazed. Your certainly no liar.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
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Oh yeah, Sorry about that Crazed. Your certainly no liar.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
Well, I'm glad that the CR thing was a bit of a "false-flag" effort. It certainly didn't add up for me.
Kommo is now spotlighting me, and others are adding in their thoughts. Hmmm.
Last time I was in the lynching spotlight I launched into a voluminous defense. This was ignored in favor of my death, in that game it was assumed that Sasaki and I were in cahoots and that all of my posts were just "white noise" to confuse.
I'll try it more simply.
I do piggy-back on other's efforts with my analytical stabs. Often some other's comment will jar my thinking and spool things up. I built on points thrown out by others in CN to suggest going back to the Kagemusha vote and played of Sasaki's analysis/stabs in Silver's game. It's not abberant for me here.
I have voted: disco, Divwind, B-Ghost, Zalmoxis, abstain, Masy, Reenk.
If Zalmoxis is my "callous wagoning" effort, you are scraping for clues that are -- I submit -- not there. I try to vote for someone where a shred of evidence suggests their guilt or where their lurker status means they provide little to the town. Feel free to read over my votes and check.
I am not a mafioso -- and I'm not built for mafiosa.:beam:
Seamus, to summarize the reasons why I suspect you, it comes down to this:
You and I have minds that are akin to one another. We both prefer numerical analysis, where possible, to subjective analysis. We tend to distrust such subjective thinking, which ample evidence has shown to be oft-unreliable.
And when I read your comments, it occurs to me that you're doing pretty much precisely what I would do - nay, what I did - when I was a mafioso. From withholding truly insightful comments, to relying a bit too much on the comments of others, to acting rather confused, to even occasionally defending a player when you have nothing to lose by doing so - it's all there. Now you wager your life on a simple defense, knowing that vigorous defenses often get a player lynched. This doesn't actually mean much - it certainly is logical - but once again it's precisely what I did in Mafia III.
If you go back and check, you'll notice it didn't work for me back then. Time will tell if it works for you here.
Seamus, your voting record will not prove you innocent lol. You, who pay so much attention to voting records, would hardly be condemned by your own. From the kills it looks to me it looks like the mafia were trying to set up the lurkers, and you went after the lurkers.
Also note, you put the lynch vote on Reenk after much hemming and hawing. If he was detective you would have wanted to lynch him without appearing to eager. I know I was all "he's a mafiosoooooo!!11" at the time, but you have to consider my strategy. I considered his claim untrustworthy and thus his investigations useless. I figured we could learn far more from watching for people either trying to save him (his fellow mafia if he was mafia) or trying to lynch him (the mafia if he was detective). You'll recall Cosa Nuova where Sigurd picked up on Xiahou because of the way he voted during the reveal. There's a decent chance Reenk was detective, and that would certainly implicate you.
Hmm... I'm slightly displeased that CR is getting off, but Seamus is the one that cast the deciding vote, so not a bad tradeoff! :2thumbsup:
By the way, Sasaki is the worst thing that the villagers have to worry about. Look how quickly he jumps from me to CR to Seamus. Who knows who it will be next?
Sasaki made no good argument against me.
At least Kommodus tracked my behavior change (I change behaviors every couple games by the way... first there is the List, then the fan club, then courteous abstention, then voting again...etc...) and Seamus made a good point about not coming clean completely (though I thought that I gave enough info in the reveal, the post is so long, plus I gave info immediately when asked...which was natural, and not planned).
Look at Sasaki's caprice: "There's a decent chance Reenk was detective"
:rolleyes:
By the way, my Source is Kommo of course, and there is one little tidbit I'm hiding from all of you still. Perhaps I will enlighten you soon...
On the contrary Reenk, I explained my reasoning in post #724.
You on the other hand seem in going after people just because they wanted you lynched, even when they've been proven innocent. This isn't going to help us.
In game reasons aside, it was an obligatory meta-game tactic to lynch you. Now mafia will be more hesitant about making false claims, and the real detectives will be more careful so they don't fudge it up completely. How exactly did revealing 4 people as innocent who then got killed the next two nights help us? If you'd revealed the next day there could be two people alive now who were confirmed innocent, maybe 3 since we probably wouldn't have lynched you. Maybe you'd have had another chance at investigating a mafia. You should take my persecution of you as a compliment since I'm basically saying I think you're smarter than this and wouldn't have screwed it up.
This is because you are still blinded to some of the realities Sasaki...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Perhaps things will be more clear if I inform you all of all that I know...if I choose to do so...
Please remember to actually vote, people.
Looking at the extremely short list of players remaining, it's apparent that if there was really a detective alive at this point, he would reveal. There's no point in staying hidden any longer.
This means that either Reenk Roink was truly the detective, or the real detective was killed earlier. As I said before, I saw no real problems with Reenk's reveal.
Regardless, we should be trying to identify the remaining mafia, rather than speculating on whether Reenk was innocent or not.
Agreed, I just wanted it out there as a reminder. I was after lurkers as a reminder. I think Kommo has me read pretty well -- it's just discouraging that the very things I emphasize in play make me suspect in the endgame.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Actually, going back over it ("hemming and hawing") on the tenor and pace of his reveal/defense, I came down hard on Reenk. Like you say, his investigations are pointless because I read him as mafioso not as townie. If he was the detective, then I deserve to be lynched for taking him out. By the way, good point on the meta-level of forcing quality reveals upon future detectives.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Oh, you came down hard alright, you only hesitated because you didn't want your lynch vote on Reenk to be seen as suspicious.
btw, who are you going to vote for this round? You must have some suspects.
There's like 2 hours left, we may need an extension.
Well, considering there have been zero actual votes that is a distinct possibility. :wall:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Or I may just Wrath of God everyone.
You yourself know how pivotal my innocence or guilt is when determining the Mafia... :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kommodus
Well it's too important a round not to really. Perhaps another 24 hours or till say 6 votes are in.Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
Xiahou and CR joined me in voting for Zalmoxis, who we now presume innocent. In fact all three of us voted for Reenk last time as well. Both of them voted against Reenk in round #1.
Dutch_Guy has voted for only one named individual -- Divine Wind -- and only in the runoff. Divine Wind is a likely innocent as well. That's a hole lot of lurkin' goin; on. Mafia hiding in plain sight? Hard to say.
Don Corleone missed a lot of votes early, and has actively voted only to lynch Kagemusha (doing so twice). Early absence speaks against an active role, but later voting behavior reads possible mafia.
Craterus hasn't voted actively a lot so far; but that's fairly typical for him. Again, hiding in plain sight possible, but hard to establish.
Iggy has also been a bit hit-or-miss. This is inconclusive.
So, since I do not suspect myself of trying to lynch "detective" Reenk, I would cast my suspicions towards Don C, X-man, or Rabbitt more or less in that order. So, I'll start with
Vote: Don C
Uh... would some else please vote?! Otherwise Seamus' one vote will carry the decision... :dizzy2:
Seamus is known for his condemning votes...
As someone who was reacently eaten by children.:gah2: I think Seamus is voting for the mafioso.
nah, don is innocent.
Okay, just a heads-up:
I will be going offline to do some reformatting on the comp. This could take anywhere from a few hours to over a day. When I do manage to get back on, the voting will be finished.
So far we only have one vote. If you don't want that person to be executed then you better get on and vote, as I could be back anytime.
Well, I'm known to abstain a lot, and not vote that often - as I simply wish to vote with some preferably conclusive evidence on the table.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Knowing myself to be innocent, it leaves Iggy , Don, Craterus, Xiahou, CR and Seamus. Don and Iggy I'd like to think as innocent. Iggy hasn't been active at all, and could very well be WoGed soon (not quite Mafioso behavior), and Don hasn't been active enough to actually make a profile (of some sort) of, same with Xiahou for that matter.
As for Seamus,
A tough one, especially after taking Kommudus' post(s) into account. The man does have a point, but then again, you are the most active still breathing participant left. Would that be a wise mafia strategem ? It could be so, but it doesn't have to be.
As for CR...
After Sasaki pounced on him he reacted in a solid, townie-esque way.
As for Craterus,
I still don't quite understand his accusation against me, some posts back now, as I find it quite hard to believe GH made the suspected slip-up. It seems to me like he was actually searching, forcing, a way to lynch someone, which had to be me - an innocent townie.
And that, is why I'm voting Craterus this round, this vote is also used as a way to force a tie breaker. As I'd like to hear the other participants out, and I don't believe Don's a mafioso.
:balloon2:
I know what I read and, to be honest, I think it's the best case out there. Hard for me to prove, but it's the one thing that I've seen and have had a good feeling about.
Vote: Dutch_guy
That's pretty suspicious. If your mafioso then your not doing a good job of defending yourself or your a townie and your doing a crappy job of defending yourself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Craterus
I think your a mafioso.
Vote for Seamus
Sorry it bothered you so Mr. "Pinkerton"....not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reenk Roink
Still, someone else should toss in a vote. First past the post with my vote only seems a little "off."
Edit: note to self, read WHOLE thread before making stupid post.
As much as Seamus and CR should die for their slander, I say vote to censor Sasaki for the rest of the game...
Let's hold another vote, separate from the lynch vote. All participants allowed, dead or alive, Mafia or villager. ~:grouphug:
Together we can stop Sasaki! :2thumbsup:
I'm afraid I gotta go with Seamus. He's very much an end-game player. He really picks apart every post in the last few rounds. This game though, just enough to get get by. Maybe GF2 is still on the brain, I dunno. He could be mafia two games in a row...
Vote: Seamus
Btw, sorry I was off all day. VERY, VERY, VERY busy day at work.:whip:
...Uh...Don...I wasn't mafia in GF2. That was Silver's "dream sequence" false ending. So it's 0 games in a row. I drew detective in my first ever game and then a whole lot of yadda.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Corleone
Thanks for the compliment on the end-game stuff though. I do try to make things add up.
Why did you mruder me in Csar's game?
Seamus just doesn't ring true. He has said repeatedly during this game that he respects my judgement and he's asked for Kommodus's input several times. Yet when we both accuse him he isn't surprised. If he were innocent he would be quite shocked, like Crazed Rabbit. Instead we get this:
Quote:
Kommo is now spotlighting me, and others are adding in their thoughts. Hmmm.
I agree. He does seem to have been acting out of character this game when it's all laid out. I certainly don't suspect CR at all... I'm up in the air on Don, and a few others, but I feel confident enough to:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Vote: Seamus
Vote: Seamus.
Of course, now that noone suspects me, I'll die next round. Such is my fate, I suppose.
Crazed Rabbit
Let me phone the Wanax and congratulate him! :2thumbsup: :balloon2: :balloon: :balloon3: :balloon2: :balloon: :balloon3: :balloon2: :balloon: :balloon3: :balloon2: :balloon: :balloon3:
No, you're still suspicious that you said that. Plus the fact that you and Xiahou have voted synonymously at least 3 rounds and maybe more... Eh? Wanax...Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
EDIT: Eureka! I got it. After giving ambiguous and cryptic messages because I felt that I could trust no one, I think I've found our one-two team.
CR and Xiahou have the backgrounds to be the bible killer and the Wanax (who posted a book called "Discourse to an Infidel Mathematician") in their kills.
Look at the other votes guys: Dutch_guy and Craterus are retaliation voting essentially, same with Don and Seamus. But CR and Xiahou are voting together, extremely odd in the dog eat last rounds of the Game. You know what to do villagers!
I think he's onto something...
Unvote: Dutch_guy
Vote: Xiahou
They've both kept quiet and evaded suspicion for most of the game.
Plus, come to think of it, those bible messages do fit the profile(s). So yes, I'm unvoting Craterus, and voting Xiahou. Let's see what for reaction we get then.
Vote Xiahou
:balloon2:
Fascinating :book:
Well fellow villagers, I have closely examined the thread and the evidence is even more damning! CR and Xiahou are like siamese twins. Aside from the three rounds already mentioned, here is the other stuff:
Round 2: CR abstained, while Xiahou didn't vote
Both didn't vote in the tiebreaker.
They were probably wanting to lay low after the first round where I called them out.
Round 3: CR and Xiahou both voted for Zal. In what would be a recurring pattern, their posts were very close together, deliberations being one after another...
Round 4: Xiahou voted for Csar, in his long attempt to get him lynched. CR layed low again, taking an on again off again approach.
Round 5: CR voted disco. Separated by only one post, Xiahou voted for Csar again (in his attempt to get him lynched since last round) but get this, he said: "disco seems like a reasonable choice".
And you know Round 6 and 7.
Coincidence? I think not...
******************************************
Now, if you'll remember villagers, the 4 people I named innocent were killed withing 2 rounds. CR apparently put a lot on this pattern.
He said "Of course, now that noone suspects me, I'll die next round. Such is my fate, I suppose"
Now, this is a pretty good strategy, claiming innocent like that and saying that he would die next round. Good to draw attention away after getting rid of any possibility of losing.
******************************************
Now, I have been in correspondence with Kommo, though I wasn't exactly sure he trusted me, so I also held back from him, and gave him ambiguous and odd statements.
He wanted me to investigate Igno and Seamus in that order, but I was lynched.
He also thought Dutch_guy a suspect.
After he went on Seamus, he told me that Igno had dropped from his list, and Seamus was the prime suspect. I concurred for his reasons, but now I see this turn of events, and I must reevaluate everything.
My suspect list:
Primes: (CR & Xiahou)
Possibles: (Seamus, Igno)
Innocents: (Dg, Craterus)
Enigma: (Don C)
We MUST lynch one or the other of this team NOW!
If I am right, and there is quite a possibility that I am, then leaving both alive this round seals the deal. However, we still have a chance to lynch Seamus (also suspicious) next round.
The call is yours, and you know what is the best choice...
Hard to believe.
I'm not creative enough to be the Wanax and I certainly wouldn't look up bible passages to post with my kills. CR as mafia? Maybe, but he came up looking pretty solid after Sasaki attempted flushing him out.
I'd suggest we stick to Seamus- his normally analytical behavior has been lacking this game. Certainly lynching me would be a wasted round that we can ill afford at this point- I for one, would like to see the town win this game. If you lynch me you'd better hope we previously lynched a mafioso- if not, they're going to walk away with it.
Oh, I never said anything about letting Seamus off the hook. He is definitely with you two in the top 3 suspect list.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiahou
This is our scenario:
There is some pretty convincing evidence that you two are a tandem mafia.
There is some pretty convincing evidence that Seamus is a mafia.
Now, both cases are plausible. I would think that the connection between you and CR is stronger than the change in Seamus's behavior, but it really doesn't matter.
The fact is, the villagers have two options:
1) Kill Seamus.
If he is a mafia, he dies, and unless his partner is still alive (and super sneaky) the villagers win!
If you and CR are the mafia, the villagers automatically lose, having 1 lynch to deal with two mafia.
2) Kill Xiahou or CR.
If you are mafia, well, that's one down and one to go for the villagers win!
If you are not mafia, then the villagers have one more round to lynch Seamus or whoever else they find is mafia.
The better option is clear.
This is the kind of stuff that goes against ya...Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiahou
Acting together doesn't seem a plausible mafia strategy to me. I've partnered with Xiahou and we made sure not to partner too much, and Crazed didn't work in tandem with Kage in mini-mafia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reenk Roink
Also if you want tandem, Seamus and Xiahou both went after lurkers in a pretty big way. All three voted for you.
You've got this all wrongQuote:
The fact is, the villagers have two options:
1) Kill Seamus.
If he is a mafia, he dies, and unless his partner is still alive (and super sneaky) the villagers win!
If you and CR are the mafia, the villagers automatically lose, having 1 lynch to deal with two mafia.
2) Kill Xiahou or CR.
If you are mafia, well, that's one down and one to go for the villagers win!
If you are not mafia, then the villagers have one more round to lynch Seamus or whoever else they find is mafia.
The better option is clear.
1) Lynch Seamus
a) He was mafia, other mafia already lynched, town wins
b) He isn't mafia, one mafia already lynched, one more try
c) He was mafia, other mafia still alive, one more try
d) He isn't mafia, two mafia alive, town loses
2) Lynch Xiahou or CR
a) They are mafia. One two lynch
b) They aren't mafia, two other mafia alive, town loses
c) They aren't mafia, one other mafia alive, one two lynch town loses
You didn't find CR's response genuine?Quote:
This is the kind of stuff that goes against ya...
Um, exactly why it's popped up only recently, although there has been tacit support between both of them in the middle. It's ingenious, play it low at the start and middle, and then come out together in the end. The fact that Seamus is getting owned by this tandem is what is suspicious.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Yes Sasaki, I didn't put every possible situation up there, only the plausible ones. By the way, you forgot: Seamus is actually the host, never play Mafia again and Crazed Rabbit is the detective... :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Fact is, it is much more likely that CR and Xiahou are the mafia than Seamus, and we don't have a partner for Seamus anyway...
Therefore, we lynch one of them now, and decide on the other or Seamus next round...
No. The fact that you do says a lot...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
CR/X-man: what up? I wrote off Don's vote as an anomaly with all the dead whispering, but sheesh guys!
Well, I am certain I shouldn't be the target, so though I suspect Xiahou less than I do Don C, I'll
Unvote: Don C
Vote: Xiahou.
I freely acknowledge that this is partly to try to survive a mafia game. I've been killed in every one so far otherwise.
The "case" against me, so far, rests on a lot of subjective interpretation. I have supposedly deviated from my normal posting style. My analysis has been said to lack a "punch line." The Voting Records are supposedly crafted to "prove my innocence."
I have heard this in every game so far!
Sasaki took me to task in GF2 for not posting long posts in the early game. His baseline for comparison, my first game (CN) in which I was a silly townie until being promoted to detective later in the game. As the detective, I dumped a lot of stuff in the water in order to prepare my reveal -- and then more to defend that reveal from the town doctor who preferred me as bait instead of a live detective.
I've been told that all the voting records are crafted to make me look good. Unlike George Will, I don't edit them down to make a point. The votes are a tool to look back and match up with current trends for comparison. Where I fit the bill of "suspect" you'll see my name listed along with the others who fit those criteria.
I've had a few insightful comments, mostly picking up on the musings of others and turning them a bit for a different angle. I lacked insight with all but one or two -- out of many tries, across 4 games now. Usually, their insightfulness is only discernible during the wrap-up anyway.
If you take the time to go back across all of my games, you'll find that it's the same bloke doing the postings and the variations wouldn't get past 1 SD.
Okay Sasaki, you've poked at CR and now you've poked at me. Look for the next one on your hit parade!:beam:
I think we've done for one mafioso and that unwrapping an "enigma" will cure the second. Self defense sends me in another direction, alas.
The case against you is still there though... :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Don't think you've gotten away yet. I'm a keeping my eye on you as well. You're just less of a threat than the duo, and we must act against them now, so we can deliberate at leisure who is the real mafia and be victorious!
Look, there are 7 people left. 2 people voting together is what we call a coincidence. I notice you haven't jumped all over Dutch_guy and Craterus.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reenk Roink
Why were yours the most plausible?Quote:
Yes Sasaki, I didn't put every possible situation up there, only the plausible ones. By the way, you forgot: Seamus is actually the host, never play Mafia again and Crazed Rabbit is the detective... :rolleyes:
No, there probably innocent. And I do have a partner for Seamus.Quote:
Fact is, it is much more likely that CR and Xiahou are the mafia than Seamus, and we don't have a partner for Seamus anyway...
Apparently you're the only one who doesn't then. Anyone can stick bible references in a kill, assuming the mafia are even writing that kill.Quote:
No. The fact that you do says a lot...
Since I don't have one, that'll be a fun surprise!:laugh4:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
[QUOTE=Seamus Fermanagh]
Mine always do. This is the same subjective interpretation you've been putting your trust in, remember?Quote:
The "case" against me, so far, rests on a lot of subjective interpretation. I have supposedly deviated from my normal posting style. My analysis has been said to lack a "punch line." The Voting Records are supposedly crafted to "prove my innocence."
Also, Kommodus's method is Objective. Numerical.
Was for lurking.Quote:
I have heard this in every game so far!
Sasaki took me to task in GF2 for not posting long posts in the early game.
You evoked them in defense of your innocence, it was pointed out that they showed no such thing.Quote:
I've been told that all the voting records are crafted to make me look good. Unlike George Will, I don't edit them down to make a point. The votes are a tool to look back and match up with current trends for comparison. Where I fit the bill of "suspect" you'll see my name listed along with the others who fit those criteria.
The fact that it took you this long to think of this possibility points to your guilt.Quote:
Okay Sasaki, you've poked at CR and now you've poked at me. Look for the next one on your hit parade!:beam:
Voting together consistently the whole game is what we in this part of the country call a "pretty big coincidence". Just like how it was just a pretty big coincidence that OSU's coach decided not to vote in the final BCS vote... :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
As for Dg and Craterus, considering they were at each other's throats for half the game and it took some PM mediation to patch up their differences and face the common threat, yeah, I'm not too suspicious.
Read the thread...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
:rolleyes4: :laugh4:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
It's amazing how your caprice is...
Who is Seamus' partner though? He is a prime suspect, and we need to know...
If your notion of everyone is you and CR and Xiahou and me, then yes...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
By the way, you sure assumed I wrote the kills when you went hysterical on me... :rolleyes:
You just ruined an above average (for you on your scale of course) cross with this. How on earth does that follow? What new axioms allow you to proceed with that line of argument?! :dizzy2:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
I'm pretty sure he's talking about you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reenk Roink
It certainly would have instantly occured to me had I been in that situation and innocent. Sigurd and I jump on Crazed with no evidence to see his reaction, and then Kommodus and I jump on Seamus with little evidence. You'd think he'd think of it sooner.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reenk Roink
I'll tell you some other time.Quote:
:rolleyes4: :laugh4:
It's amazing how your caprice is...
Who is Seamus' partner though? He is a prime suspect, and we need to know...
Aw, man, are you still upset about that? It was far too important to just let you slide by. Of course I went after you full throttle. Sure it's obvious now that you were the detective, but it would have been bade gameplay to leave you alive. At the time I gave you 50/50. I'm sure you've learned your lesson though. For what it's worth I apologize. Learn from Banquo though, he took it with a sense of humor.Quote:
By the way, you sure assumed I wrote the kills when you went hysterical on me... :rolleyes:
BTW, Seamus, if you really thought Don was guilty then his vote wouldn't be an anomaly now would it? It would be trying to start a wagon to get you lynched.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
If you were innocent you would be just as interested in finding the mafia as you would in saving your own skin, because lynching one innocent is the same as lynching another. But you don't try to convince us of Don's guilt, you just defend yourself.
Also, did you forget this little thing from that pm a while ago?
Quote:
Actually, I'm surprised that Don C hasn't got whacked. I never posted about it -- let sleeping dogs lie -- but his absence pretty well confirms he's neither mafia nor a detective. Thought he'd be dead by now.
I'm on briefly, so I'll make this short.
Obviously there is a tie vote. We need that tie to be broken (either by Ignoramus or one of this six).
I don't want to do a dead vote yet. If it's not broken I'll think of something else...
EDIT: Woot, this now has more posts than Mafia III. :medievalcheers:
Reenk, did you not admit after one game that you were playing a 'bad villager'? It seems you just want to get back at those who voted to lynch you.
As for you 'evidence' of me and Xiahou's conniving - we voted on the same person once. Is that conclusive of anything? And is that every different from comparisons of everyone else's voting records?
Why Seamus - he's come up with no suspects after all this time - very similar to when Kommodus, who shares his analytical approach, was Mafia in mafia III. His defense does not seem to be very townie-esque.
Crazed Rabbit
Congrats GH. Would be more but I opted to send a ton of pm's instead.Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
~:cheers:
Sasaki, the argument you are making here is stretching the use of a syllogism... This is how I'm seeing it:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
1) It took "long" (i.e an undefined period of time) for Seamus to think of possibility X.
2) One would think that a person would think of possibility X sooner than the "long" (undefined period of time) while he did.
C) Seamus is guilty.
Not only is premise 2 extremely weak itself (the person could be stupid, slow, or thought of the possibility and not post it), but even if we accept it (which I don't), the conclusion simply does not follow.
PM me and Kommodus. Give good reasons too...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Sasaki, I am not upset about you pushing to lynch me (I'm more upset with CR, Seamus, and Xiahou for that). That should be clear with my joke "permaexclusalisted" status. What I am upset with is the way you go about interrogating people with terrible reasons. You start bandwagons, cause divisiveness, and all in all, hamper the villagers. Now, I'm not saying that you never get it right, but your getting it right is more due to the fact that you go after so many people and have better chances...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Um.. yes Mafia III, and I made sure to drop that... :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
You voted on the same person 4 times. Please look at an earlier post for the "coincidence" of your votes and give me an example of a pair with voting records as similar as yours.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
This really means nothing. You use labels like "townie-esque" without defining them clearly. This argument is as good as "abstaining courteously is the perfect cover for the Mafia". We simply don't know what you mean...Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
Now please listen, I certainly have my suspicions on Seamus, but the fact is, that we have one more round to get Seamus, but must act this round to get your tandem.
I tell ya what, Vote: Xiahou, and you will have a bit more credibility in my eyes...
Of course it doesn't follow, I'm not concluding he's mafia from that. I'm concluding it from lot's of things.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reenk Roink
Kommodus knows all about it :pQuote:
PM me and Kommodus. Give good reasons too...
Ah ok. Well that's my method in a nutshell. Most of my wagons have terrible reasons and I'm not ashamed to admit it ("CR is mafia. Lynch him" anyone? :D ). But it works and I'm a firm believer in it. Consider this: The mafia won all 4 of my games, as well as Mafia I where I was not playing. Now I admit my wildness causes mass confusion, I confuse myself all the time, but from confusion comes knowledge. And yeah, I'm wrong as often as I'm right, but at least I'm right eh?Quote:
Sasaki, I am not upset about you pushing to lynch me (I'm more upset with CR, Seamus, and Xiahou for that). That should be clear with my joke "permaexclusalisted" status. What I am upset with is the way you go about interrogating people with terrible reasons. You start bandwagons, cause divisiveness, and all in all, hamper the villagers. Now, I'm not saying that you never get it right, but your getting it right is more due to the fact that you go after so many people and have better chances...
Glad to here that was a joke I thought I'd actually upset you :bow:
Well, that's certainly an...interesting...strategy. Still, I just want to point out that GH's Mafia games are the toughest for the Mafia to win, because of the setup. No special roles besides the Mafia and the Detective make it much simpler. The only one that the Mafia won was the first one (with the least people and no detectives). The fact that the Mafia actually got this far with 31 people is quite amazing, but I'm resolved to steal their thunder. :yes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
:bow:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro
Four times? Are you counting abstaining as voting for the same person?Quote:
You voted on the same person 4 times. Please look at an earlier post for the "coincidence" of your votes and give me an example of a pair with voting records as similar as yours.
You insult my intelligence if you think I would play so foolishly. You cite a few rare instances of us posting near the same time as guilt. Do you think I'm some noob who would post so near to a mafia partner?Quote:
Well fellow villagers, I have closely examined the thread and the evidence is even more damning! CR and Xiahou are like siamese twins. Aside from the three rounds already mentioned, here is the other stuff:
Round 2: CR abstained, while Xiahou didn't vote
Both didn't vote in the tiebreaker.
They were probably wanting to lay low after the first round where I called them out.
Round 3: CR and Xiahou both voted for Zal. In what would be a recurring pattern, their posts were very close together, deliberations being one after another...
Round 4: Xiahou voted for Csar, in his long attempt to get him lynched. CR layed low again, taking an on again off again approach.
Round 5: CR voted disco. Separated by only one post, Xiahou voted for Csar again (in his attempt to get him lynched since last round) but get this, he said: "disco seems like a reasonable choice".
And you know Round 6 and 7.
If seamus is one of two mafia left and we don't kill him, we lose. We don't really have one more round to get him if we lynch Xiahou - you insist he and I are a team and will urge my lynching if Xiahou gets lynched and I'm still alive. With your plan the town loses. It's pretty clear both Seamus and Xiahou aren't mafia, so lynching both of them gives mafia the win.Quote:
Now please listen, I certainly have my suspicions on Seamus, but the fact is, that we have one more round to get Seamus, but must act this round to get your tandem.
Maybe he's mafia, but I think Seamus is more likely to be mafia, and I'm sticking with that.Quote:
I tell ya what, Vote: Xiahou, and you will have a bit more credibility in my eyes...
Crazed Rabbit
The voting records' there...Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
It's not my intention to insult intelligence. It's my intention to snuff out Mafia. There is a clear pattern here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
One, I have no evidence of Seamus' partner. If Seamus is mafia, his partner is:Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
1) Dead
2) Alive
2 is a tough one, because there is no lead as to who it could be. The partner has done an excellent job of not being noticed with Seamus, and at this stage of the game, that's unlikely.
Here's the problem, I think Seamus or CR/Xiahou are the Mafia. I happen to think that latter is more likely, and their situation is more dangerous. It's odd that you would maintain your vote on Seamus while not thinking that he is a Mafia though... :inquisitive:Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
Awesome! The late-game explosion of discussion has arrived. :idea2:
Anyway, with regards to Sasaki's strategy, it may be a bit annoying but it does work. By posting and accusing a lot, Sasaki creates discussion, which ample proof has shown to be beneficial to the town. Sure, he's wrong a lot, and he's started more than his share of witch-hunts, but what counts in the end is whether or not the mafia were caught, not how many innocents were lynched in the process.
So Reenk and Sasaki, I think you guys should back off from each other bit. Reenk, if you're really the detective, that would mean you guys are on the same team. You may have different tactics but you're working for the same goal. Eh?
Regarding Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou... hm. I've gotta admit, I'm disinclined to believe that the two mafiosi would work together in such a blatant fashion (though it is true that no one brought it up until now). It's a tough choice for sure, but I'm not going for it. Maybe I've been fooled, to my great shame and embarrassment (:shame: ), but that's my decision.
Nobody ever listened to me about anything in this game. I always had the best intentions, truly reflected on my conclusions, but I was always ignored. :no: :shame: :disappointed:
It's lonely work, this private eye stuff...
:flybye:
Dont take it so seriously Reenk.~:) This game is all about arguing about theories.Theories,not people.:smash:Quote:
Originally Posted by Reenk Roink
I meant they are not both mafia, at the same time. Either one may be, but I believe Seamus to be more likely.Quote:
Here's the problem, I think Seamus or CR/Xiahou are the Mafia. I happen to think that latter is more likely, and their situation is more dangerous. It's odd that you would maintain your vote on Seamus while not thinking that he is a Mafia though...
If I were mafia, I would do everything possible not to associate myself with the other mafioso - like I did in Mini-mafia, were noone suspected a link between me and Kage. I think the pattern you see is just a result of your bitterness that I voted to lynch you.Quote:
It's not my intention to insult intelligence. It's my intention to snuff out Mafia. There is a clear pattern here.
Crazed Rabbit
This is past arguing.
Lines of opposition have solidified and the dead scream for me to join them, certain of my guilt.
Nothing I can say/post/refer to will alter that stance, all will be reinterpreted to trumpet my guilt.
All I can say is, go back over it from the start and read it through -- I don't think my message is inconsistent, but then again, I am the one writing it, so what do I know.
^^cop out
Ignoramus Ignoramus where are yoouuuu??
Someone email Ignoramus.
Suspicious Reasons for voting:
1) Seamus has had a behavior change from past games.
2) Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou have been voting extremely similarly.
The defenses:
Both weak.
Who should be lynched this round:
Since we don't have a name for Seamus' partner yet (Sasaki and Kommodus are holding back on their suspect), it is more plausible that he is dead rather than alive, as in this late stage of the game, a partner would certainly surface (as in the Crazed Rabbit/Xiahou case). Thus, with two lynches left, it would certainly be more prudent to lynch Xiahou, and deliberate on Seamus/Crazed Rabbit next round.
:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit
Don't even begin to flatter yourself.
If you can show me that patterns like the one between you and Xiahou are common, that'll be enough to convince me. Problem is, you cannot...
I just realized: Kagemusha was killed last night. This means that this round will be the mafia's undoing.
You can't escape it Seamus IT'S THE CURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRSE!!!! ~:eek:
Would the mafia seriously leave killing Kage till the end for fear of the curse?
How long has this curse been around?
Ever since Kage (as a mafioso) won Mafia I, whenever he has been killed in subsequent mafia games (my games only, oddly enough), things have started to go terribly wrong for the mafia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Craterus
I noticed this after Mafia IV when Kage was executed in the first round and the next two people executed were both mafiosi.
Hmm. And this should bother a mafioso enough not to kill them until the end?
Did Seamus play in Mafia III and IV? What about Xiahou?
I'm guessing Crazed Rabbit did. I think I remember him in the first 2 mafia games.
Seamus and Xiahou did not. Rabbit did.
Here's my reasoning Craterus:
I know I am innocent, and so there cannot be a CR/Xiahou mafia. That means if Xiahou is mafia he is the only one. Whereas if Seamus is mafia, he probably has his partner left. So if Seamus is mafia, then we need to kill him this round and his partner next round. But if Xiahou is mafia, then we can execute Seamus this round and Xiahou the next and still win.
Crazed Rabbit
Why is that directed at me? I'm not leading the case against you. ~:confused: (My vendetta is against Dutch_guy. ~;p)
And, at the moment, my vote is for Xiahou.
EDIT6: Let's assume the Mafia are aware of the curse. By killing Kage, complacency has clearly set in. I thought this game was beyond the town's reach, and clearly so does the Mafia.
Don't think this actually adds anything to the discussion though.:embarassed:
Crazed Rabbit's argument is modeled after mine, but there is stretching of the syllogism present in his version.
You see, my premise is that if Seamus is the mafia, it is more likely that he is alone than not (the partner is dead). To support this premise, I pointed to the fact that we do not have any clue as to who his partner could be*, and that is odd, because in the endgame, if his partner was alive, we would likely have seen a connection (like in Xiahou and Crazed Rabbit).
Crazed Rabbit is holding that Seamus' partner is probably left. He however, gives no reason as to why that is, and the premise is weak.
*One of my sources has recently told me of a possible partner of Seamus. I hold that while certainly possible, it is not plausible, and I have been given no reasons as the why this partner was named yet.
Another thing about Crazed Rabbit's argument, is that his premises are much more dogmatic than mine. He oddly claims that if Xiahou is the mafia, then he is the only one (again, no reason given). I claimed that if Seamus was the mafia, it is more likely that Seamus is alone than not (giving reasons as to why this is).
My argument on the whole is much more believable.
By the way, I'm sure Seamus knows he's innocent as well... :rolleyes:
Craterus, I doubt the mafia took the curse into consideration when choosing to kill Kage. They killed him because he was one of Reenk's named innocents.
You can break the tie Craterus...vote for Seamus.
Because...Quote:
Originally Posted by Craterus
Quote:
And, at the moment, my vote is for Xiahou.
If Xiahou is mafia, then either me or don are his fellow associates or noone at all. I know I am innocent and I'm pretty sure right now that don is. Simple logic. I'm not sure about Seamus's supporters (those voting for Xiahou or not voting).Quote:
Another thing about Crazed Rabbit's argument, is that his premises are much more dogmatic than mine. He oddly claims that if Xiahou is the mafia, then he is the only one (again, no reason given). I claimed that if Seamus was the mafia, it is more likely that Seamus is alone than not (giving reasons as to why this is).
Your whole case rests on some percieved pattern between me and Xiahou that is primarily a figment of your imagination.
Crazed Rabbit
Also, Reenk, when Crazed Rabbit was the Serial Killer in my game, he was attacked quite strongly but did not swear he was innocent, even though he got lynched. Conversely, everytime he has sworn he was innocent, he has been innocent.
Okay, I've made my decision.
Voting will continue until the tie is broken.