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Well, either mafia pair is Pizza and General, in which case we already lost because town can't unify (seems unlikely, but whatever, anything is possible) or Atheotes is mafia. Right now, Vote: Atheotes because on balance his behaviour surrounding the claims feels too odd to be town.
Anyways, thanks for confirming yourself as pizza's scum partner. There is no hope for the town. If i am the most vocal townie town is doomed.Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
what is it that you are finding odd? I claimed a role to get myself targeted by the scum so that we did not lose the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dp101
Remember, all scum have cover roles.
Assume i am scum and try to explain happened on the night of no kill.
Easy. Riedquat wasn't lying and successfully protected Pelican.Quote:
Originally Posted by atheotes
The switching and such strike me as weird. Your cases have also been a little odd. However, I just realised that Pizza still hasn't posted his role pm. Since this is the last day, Pizza, could you please post your PM to confirm the validity of your results?
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
from the point of view that i am scum. I am asking Dp101 and the other townies to look at my posts in conjunction with the actual situation and what happened.
I threw the spanner in the works for the scum team. otherwise game would have ended there.
By switching you mean the votes? my cases are bound to be not solid. I am town and i dont have any other information other than what is in the thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dp101
Good point abt pizza's role pm though. lets see.
You asked me to elaborate on this, so I'll indulge you.Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
6 people still alive.
Al Sipsclar
Askthepizzaguy
atheotes
Dp101
GeneralHankerchief
Pelican
Pelican is cleared by virtue of Riedquat protecting him and then Riedquat being nightkilled - i.e. Riedquat was in opposition to the mafia.
ATPG is not 100% lock clear but a town-aligned tracker makes sense with what's been confirmed about the setup and his theories make sense at this stage in the game.
Dp101... isn't mafia. End of discussion.
And then there's me.
This leaves us with two scum remaining: atheotes, and Al Sipsclar.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that Pizza is a mafioso. But I'd put money on atheotes and Al Sipsclar being some variation of Walt and Igner (Mom's two unaccounted-for sons), and the game concluding upon their deaths.
I'm not sure what the two have to do with each other. If you're scum, you're lying about your role and have no protection ability whatsoever. This leaves us with Riedquat protecting Fry/Pelican.Quote:
Originally Posted by atheotes
My role PM again. I claimed it probably 3 or 4 phases ago at this point.
The first time I posted it, I had adblocker on, so the image didn't post when I went to copy n paste it. IMGUR is filtered out by adblock plus for firefox.
If you recall, I breadcrumbed that I was a tracker on night 1, and also knew where Winston Hughes went, and he flipped townie. I've been tracking people.
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
I'm turning in early. I woke up earlier than usual this morning and I'm falling asleep at the keyboard.
I'll check for other questions before school tomorrow and can be here for several hours when I get home tomorrow.
@Pelican
ping ping.
Pizza, when you get back, sorry to keep requesting more clarification than should be necessary, but how is this an uncledynamite situation with Athotes? What is it about him specifically narrowing down his list of allowed mafia to me and Al that makes him obvscum?
Hi pals, really sorry for all of the silence on my end, but this is the first spare moment I've had in days that I can reasonably devote to this game. And even this has to be brief. Based on what I can glean from a very cursory skim of the thread, I'll go ahead and vote for vote: Al Sipsclar; Don't want to go Pizza after Monty's flip and out of the remaining candidates, I feel he has been most suspicious throughout the game. I'm glad to see that there's still tomorrow for me to be around and change my vote if need be, but that participation may be limited to just a half hour or so around the EoD, unfortunately. Really sorry, I know players like me who sign up for a game and can't commit the necessary time later on are a major pain in the shiny metal ass (RIP my good friend Bender :cry:), but I really am trying my best with the situation I find myself in.
It was half that and half another thing. Let me grab the post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dp101
Tally as of post 3164:
Lynch votes
3 votes: atheotes (GeneralHankerchief, Askthepizzaguy, Dp101)
1 votes: Al Sipsclar (Pelican)
Voting history:Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
I'll walk you through my thoughts as they occurred.
1. "I did not see that coming! Pizza is town?"Quote:
Originally Posted by atheotes
This reaction, even if there weren't already serious problems with atheotes for most of the game (stuff I highlighted in orange and red in an earlier analysis post) smacked of a mafioso being caught with their pants down after the expected mislynch target didn't go through and a scum died instead.
Why would I simply be town after all that suspicion just because Monty flipped wolf? Especially if you're atheotes and you figure if you voted incorrectly, that would have been game. Which he says immediately afterward:
2. "GH and Al sips is the scum team? But they could have lynched pizza with their votes."
Right. And he also has GH as one of his top suspects for the past several rounds at this point. Monty's flip should not have suddenly thrown all the suspicion on me and also Generalhankerchief into doubt. In fact, he specifically avoids saying whether or not he even still suspects GH or Al, which allows him to reverse course on either one, depending on which one looks like they'd be willing to mislynch tomorrow. Leaving options on the table.
So up to here, it's gross because I know he's wrong about half of the scum team minimum, and he also hard defended Montmorency as town in the previous phase on a day that was a potential lynch or lose. But this isn't the point.
continuing to the next post.
Immediately after the hard reset of his suspects list and keeping me in it, and after suspecting Generalhankerchief for a while, now Generalhankerchief is town just because of Monty's flip. GH and Monty had a fairly buddy buddy relationship all game. The sudden drop of suspicion on GH, how it vanishes here, implies that he now does have GH as specifically a town slot.Quote:
Originally Posted by atheotes
So he's thinking that GH and himself are town, and he has Pelican as town. There's one left. He also specifically mentions that he would only protect inside Riedquat and Generalhankerchief. (Red flag: He is giving himself an out when Riedquat dies, he can claim to have been protecting GH instead. He can't do that unless he marks GH down as town after suspecting him for ages)
Then he says "Pizza can track Al Sips again".
That suggestion reveals that he thinks I can be town. If I am town and atheotes is town, there was a town-on-town vote at lynch or lose. So why didn't I get lynched?
Remember, he says this in the same breath as he suggests that GH is simply just a townie now. So in the same post, he first establishes that GH is probably the town jailkeeper, and that it would be a good idea to jailkeep DP, which doesn't make a lot of sense because dp is a claimed vanilla townie and supposedly a potential mislynch target since we have no data on him at all. Why not jailkeep Askthepizzaguy if you believe I am scum? or Al Sipsclar? So that Riedquat can do his thing unmolested.
So the thought process is exactly this:
(a) generalhankerchief is town after that mislynch, and my suspicions on him are gone. (b) pizza and al sipsclar are scum candidates (c) Riedquat is still not a suspect (d) Pelican is town and should be protected (e) Pizza can track Al Sipsclar.
^They literally happen one after the other, boom boom boom.
What tracking data is he expecting to get from me? What scum team is he thinking of if he suggests that GH can be town and pizza can be town in the same breath?
What town team is he thinking of?
He's got a moment where he suggests GH and Askthepizzaguy and Pelican are all townies. In one post, in one connected thought.
That leaves Al Sipsclar and dp101. A team which is impossible.
Examine it and see what happens when you highlight those names in blue and neutral:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
There are three scumbags left, based on the lylo warning.
If you are giving Pizza tracking suggestions, you think there's a chance he's town after saying that GH is town. And he's marked Pelican down as town as well. That's three.
Where's the last townie?
If you put it anywhere besides dp101 or Al Sipsclar, you're landing it on atheotes. But a dp101 and Al Sipsclar team is impossible, because of this:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Dp and Al Sipsclar were both here at deadline to switch, and there was a town-on-town vote, according to what atheotes is suggesting. ^This would have been the final vote count if dp and Al were both scum.
However, you can have Askthepizzaguy as a potential townie and GH as a potential townie at the same time, with Pelican, with 2 slots left to color in, like this:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
All you have to do is color atheotes' name in red, and one of Al Sipsclar or dp101 in as town. Then the count works. And then you have 4 townies other than atheotes, which is what makes that math work.
That is how pizza can possibly be a townie and avoid being mislynched yesterday. A position that would be very difficult for atheotes to justify otherwise.
Granted, he said he still had me as scum, but then in the same breath he suggested GH and Pelican were town, he gave me tracking orders.
You don't suddenly just forget which of us you have as town. You literally cannot have both GH and Askthepizzaguy as town if you're atheotes, while also having Pelican as town. Because then the game would be over.
The only way that works is if you think there are 4 townies in the game besides yourself.
Look, I'm the kind of guy that turns his opinion on a dime. I get having GH as scummy in one post and then town in the next. They could even be 1 minute apart. It can happen.
I have even seen someone have a player as scummy at the start of their post, and townie by the end of it, after talking themself through it. That's also possible, albeit rarely.
But you don't have Askthepizzaguy as scum and town in the same post, in the same connected thought. There's no tracking data that's worth a damn for me to give if I am scum. I can invent anything I want.
However, there is a purpose to asking me to track Al Sipsclar: If you are running out of ways to block and kill the powers that threaten you.
If you have to block GH, and kill one of Reidquat or Askthepizzaguy, but you leave the other alive, give him a suggestion that always causes him to miss what happened. Ask him to track Al Sipsclar, then roleblock and kill. That way, both crimes go undetected.
It wasn't a momentary lapse in concentration either:
If he's planning on killing Riedquat, the scan is worthless. He could then claim "why would I ask Riedquat to scan me if I'm scum?" which, although that shouldn't fool people, I've seen it happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by atheotes
But point blank, he's got neither Riedquat or Pelican as scum suspects here.
Then he tells GH to jailkeep dp101. Which doesn't make a lot of sense, especially if he thinks that there's any possibility his "1 shot" bulletproof power actually was the reason for the no death the night prior, instead of suggesting it was possibly Riedquat's doing. If he knows he's town, and he has no active powers left, and that he might have been targeted for death, he should be asking to be jailkept, himself. But nevermind, that's a minor quibble.
He now suggests that he will have a protect on himself as a possibility, as well as possibly GH or possibly Riedquat. Which means that he could kill either one. He could decide to block Riedquat and kill Generalhankerchief IF GH is jailkeeping dp101. That gives him options.
He's giving me tracking instructions.
He's giving me tracking instructions for the second time, with enough time in between for me to post several times.
He is asking for Riedquat to scan himself, which gives him absolutely no information.
He's telling GH to block someone besides himself.
He's telling me to track someone besides himself.
The block or track should both be clearing for atheotes if he was town, if they were successful. Instead, he goes with the one information role which is getting murdered that night, and also, would tell him absolutely nothing he didn't already know about himself if he were town.
The two roles which survived the night were asked not to look at him. The one role he did ask to look at him, he should have been asking to look at dp101, who was the other person that Riedquat claimed to have not scanned yet, and thus, would be the only useful piece of data for atheotes IF Riedquat had survived.
But he's telegraphing the fact that he's about to kill Riedquat here.
And my tracking data wouldn't have seen anything if I followed that instruction.
And it wouldn't have told us anything if we listened to atheotes' previous suggestions for night actions, either. He keeps giving us suggestions that conveniently don't solve the game, and telegraphing our actions to the scum team (if he were townie) which is ill advised. Scum can counter such courses of action if they can predict them exactly.
Such as making sure I'm looking the wrong way.
But the point:
Again, he suggests the possibility that I am town with Generalhankerchief and Pelican.
That's twice in one night, while giving bullshit order suggestions that solve nothing.
If you know there are 4 townies alive in the game, you could mark all three of us as townies and still have room for 1. But that's only if you're not trying to solve the game.
If you were trying to solve the game, you'd also have yourself as a townie, and see that a dp101 and Al Sipsclar team is literally impossible due to the vote count.
And thus, you would have a different or more concrete pair of suspects, or a different and more concrete townie trio.
Why this is analogous to UncleDynamite:
In that game, UD defended the people I was accusing, without accusing me, and even marking me down as a town read.
The problem was, he was also defending his mafia partner, for obvious reasons. And he had one suspect.
But there were two scums alive, and the only way all of those other people could be town, is if the one slot remaining was scum. His slot.
From atheotes' perspective, there is a way that GH and I and Pelican can be town. And that's if you don't have atheotes as town.
How atheotes can forget that he's town as town? He can't. It's never happened.
But, I've seen a scumbag white knight too many townies and accuse themself of being scum by process of elimination before, by marking off too many townies at once.
It doesn't happen often, but it does happen if you're more focused on making sure your kill goes through that night, and giving instructions that solve nothing to the town, while telegraphing which role out of the three is going to be murdered.
Or it happens if you're simply trying to protect your scum partner from a townie's accusations, but feel you'd lose a direct confrontation with said townie, so you mark them down as scum. You also want to discredit that townie by defending the other townies he's attacking, so they side with you. Suddenly, you lose count of how many townies you're supposed to have, and accidentally put one too many.
If atheotes is solving the game and has any theory in his head, then at any time, he cannot come up with an Al Sips and dp101 scum team.
But those suggested actions, repeated, suggest that exact team. Without saying it outright. Because it's wrong and he does in fact need one of your votes today.
It's not a team he's ever going to push, because he doesn't believe it is a real team either. He discounted it above. And it's obviously incorrect.
But it's the only team that remains if you believe atheotes' suggested night actions are legitimate and come from a town mindset:
Reidquat not scum. Pelican town. GH town. Himself town. Pizza town. Leaves Al and dp, a team that shouldn't ever exist in any villager's brain, after they point out such a team is impossible.Quote:
Originally Posted by atheotes
This was the post he made just a few posts prior:
He's already proven he knows that team (GH and Al Sips) is impossible, but the same logic holds true for dp101 and Al Sipsclar. In fact, any 2 of the Montmorency voters.Quote:
Originally Posted by atheotes
But he accidentally suggests such a team moments later, proving he's not solving, but manipulating the outcome of the night phase as his primary motivation.
He couldn't make such a suggestion unless he has 4 townies in play other than himself.
The only way that happens is when you forget to include yourself in your list of townies.
Holy crap, thanks for the extensive writeup. I understand things a lot better now, and I feel I understand mafia thinking a lot better now, and might actually become a decent townie one day. I realise that most of the above probably doesn't matter because if I trust you on that then I also trust your scan, which proves his guilt anyway.
NETAQuote:
Or it happens if you're simply trying to protect your scum partner from a townie's accusations, but feel you'd lose a direct confrontation with said townie, so you mark them down as scum.
What UD did in that game. Should read "town", was typing too fast.
Look at the timestamps between these two posts:
Quote:
Originally Posted by atheotes
His mistake immediately occurs to me because I am solving the game. This is not something that I had to even ponder for more than a moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
All of those thoughts I just described in the above post (which takes a long time to type) occurred the instant I saw atheotes' post. A couple happened later on, but the main thrust of it, the live townie miscount, all happened just then, and the reasons behind it, and the cited example of where I've seen a scum doing it before.
GH is correct, I can't fake certain thought processes. I've been off the mark for most of the game, but I've given thought processes that made sense and explained them.
I do this because people need to know WHY I was incorrect if I was incorrect. And also so that if I am incorrect, someone can tell me why before the lynch actually happens. Then I can reverse.
Examples: suspicion on GH immediately reversed when I saw that claim. Jailkeeper is someone the mafia would have to roleblock or kill every single night for the rest of the game if he's town. And if he's scum, that will be found out when he's still alive at LYLO, usually.
Suspicion on Winston Hughes: Nonexistent the entire game. Never saw his original soft claim, suspected him precisely because I thought he claimed at night, which you shouldn't do if you're an investigative role or role with any active ability, unless you're also giving out information you're afraid will be lost.
As soon as it was pointed out he had claimed before that, the suspicion vanished again.
I could walk you through my suspicions and town leans on every single person I've talked about this entire game. Especially any reversals.
Ask me anything about any individual person.
Note also that he declared that it wasn't LYLO today, because Riedquat got shot.
Again, that can only be the case if you think there are 4 townies alive who aren't yourself.
2 scums and 4 other townies is not lylo, because if you include yourself, that's a final 7.
Final 6 means if there are 2 scums and 4 other townies, you are one of the scums.
Because final 6 does not occur very much on this board due to a lack of vigilantes, it's understandable that atheotes could forget the dynamics of LYLO and suggest in a taunting fashion that since Riedquat died, town can "afford to mislynch" atheotes, so therefore bluffing that town will get pizza tomorrow if atheotes is lynched incorrectly today.
But he made the same mistake again, forgetting to include himself as townie.
You don't need tracking data to catch atheotes here. The thread is often times far more conclusive than claims, especially in a non-spreadsheet solve game with host-provided fake role PMs given to the scums.
You must examine the in-thread stuff. But I know GH is lock clear now, and that atheotes is not scumming with GH. I also know at least one of Al Sips and dp101 are townies. Pelican could be scum if he had a role that falsely scanned as Fry, but if anyone had a godfather power it was probably Montmorency based on flipping Mom, so I'm not in favor of that theory.
You know, on balance, even if I am wrong and you are mafia and Atheotes is innocent, I would be absolutely furious with myself if I lost via lynching a claimed tracker with the info needed for us to win (or at least continue the current game state). My vote will stay where it is.
At one point, Montmorency was the top poster in this game, with twice as many posts as me. Note how his activity level declined as his motivation was no longer to townclear himself, since many people including myself had done so. Once a lot of people had him as town, he was focused on getting mislynches, and his focus became quite narrow, so that he could avoid looking more wrong than townies. His activity level dipped. Cuthillius passed him and dp101 passed him.
It's one of the reasons why a drop in activity levels are a tell for the really active posters- they can get town points for themselves, but once that happens, town is likely voting for one another, and that means the scums have to do less in order to win. And then, you avoid accusing too many people, and skate by on your being town-read. dp, your levels kept climbing. So did Cuth's, until he died. Monty only died last phase and he's far behind the leaders.
Just something to note for future reference. It's harder to sustain an early townie-looking game, and then also explain why you're never murdered and your suspects keep flipping town. If your suspect is someone that you can accuse for several rounds in a row, even better. There's no data in the thread showing how you're wrong.
So, no two sane scums could be outside of Pizza's wagon yesterday. Two scums outside Pizza's wagon could be possible only if Pizza himself were to be scum (and Monty and Pizza created two competing wagons for themselves just for kicks), or if the second scum was AWOL.
Vote: atheotes
not voting - @atheotes
Voting ends in:
Tally as of post 3173:
Lynch votes
4 votes: atheotes (GeneralHankerchief, Askthepizzaguy, Dp101, Al Sipsclar)
1 votes: Al Sipsclar (Pelican)
Voting history:Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Out of GH, Dp, PP, and myself, I seem to be the most likely last scum. However, that contradicts my role PM (I had to re-read it, just to be sure I didn't overlook it, :laugh4:), so this is really interesting. Probably also means I'm going to survive until final four, being the scum's last chance to unify town against itself. This is why lurkers should be lynched early.
A thought: What if Fry is mafia? Would that make sense given what we know about Riedquat's role and the balance of the game?
We know he's a neutral role because that was confirmed to us upon Riedquat's death. But most of his actions are town-favored: protections, scanning, etc. This would counteract itself nicely if Riedquat's primary objective is a mafioso in disguise.
OTOH, this would mean Riedquat has two contradictory goals: Keep robots (town) alive, and keep Fry (mafia) alive. Which is impossible to do given the parameters of the game. So I guess not then.
Yeah, I was wondering that too. Like you, I think it's probably just paranoia, but we must consider it. Still feels a bit like a potential bastard role to me though if it works that way.
Given Riedquat's stated victory conditions I don't see how it makes sense. It is physically impossible to satisfy both of his conditions (save robots/save Fry) if the two of them are on opposite sides.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dp101
I had Pelican as lock town, moved him out of it for a couple minutes when I was thinking the previous post through, and put him back in the lock town category upon completion of the thought.
Unless a secret provision of Riedquat's role was that of a cult leader or something. But IIRC there aren't cults in this game as per the OP.
Not thinking about that. Pelican's safe, if I'm wrong then oh well.
I keep running the scenarios through my head, and every time it comes back atheotes/Al Sipsclar as the final two. I just can't see any other combination.
I'm me. Pelican is lock clear. That leaves us with four.
Dp101 has been super townie all game and is not displaying any sort of behavior I associate with mafia whatsoever, particularly not in their second game ever.
Pizza is always a possibility, but we've verged on a LYLO on more than one occasion that was avoidable. His behavior makes no sense if you're trying to win now, and while Pizza is absolutely the type who tries to score style points on occasion, he's not the type to do so one mislynch away from victory.
It has to be atheotes and Al Sipsclar by process of elimination.