The Kage read, mostly. Felt like mafia would just make the read and move on, not talk about how odd it was.
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Not quoting because mobile, but I find it weird how in GH’s big wall on everyone my posts with actual analysis in them are ignored, and instead the only post that gets picked up is barely 2 sentences. Probably nothing, but, there’s a tiny part of me that feels like the possibility of GH fpsing and bussing is not out of the question.
Well, honestly not sure where to go from here. Logic is probably clear, I trust Manasi, sooh is IC so I guess Kage is all I have? Going to wait a bit for others to weigh in first, before I vote anyone.
GH is right to want to put more pressure on me. If I am mafia, I will crack. I think Chess was my only Org mafia game, but Pizza and GH were not wrong about my mafia tells. If you think I've gotten leagues better in the span of one game, I'm flattered, but I don't think anyone can change their performance level that much, that quickly.
Just don't spend all your time examining me. Statistically, you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting the last mafia by guesswork alone.
I'll have more to add on Monday, but right now I feel like Dp is a touch worse than Kage, and Manasi feels very town to me.
Sooh, what's your order of preference?
Assuming for a second that we get it wrong today, the remaining mafia has the best chance to kill you tonight, because then tomorrow it is LYLO with 3 people that are not cleared. That's not a position I want to be in tomorrow: I think I have a 0% town record at LYLO.
Vote: Kage
I don't see the remaining mafia NOT bussing in an outed scenario, which leads me to believe that Manasi is less likely than DP or Kage. EOD votes on D1 lead me to believe that the wagon was not all Town, and that leaves Kage. The reasoning isn't airtight, but GH came to this conclusion before me. He also shaded Dp quite a bit, so I am not confident on this, but I think Kage is the more likely mafia here.
Yeah the mafia had to bus. They're not in the two confirmed people off wagon and it's not in AFK me.
I don't think you'd end up on a random wagon when someone's outted as mafia either.
I think the POE of Kage/Dp is solid so you're fine in LYLO.
If you're mafia you've already won ecks dee.
THAT BEING SAID, mafia probably hops onto the wagon after the claim as opposed to before the claim.
Right?
This does not look good for Manasi or me. This is well before Csargo was outed, but even if I was mostly clear, I don't think I'd put my partner at the bottom or second from bottom of a suspicion list.
During my ISO of Kage, I said the above, and Csargo followed with this:
When there are only 2 wolves, is the best play to shade your partner, when only two other people have a strong read on him? This is making me second guess my Kage vote, and look at Manasi a little bit more. Sooh, Dp, your thoughts on this?
Don't go down this road.
I'm probably objectively the worst looking when it comes to interactions with Csargo, but you know as much as anyone on this game that this is probably the most engaged/involved I've been in a game on this site. I don't know if you think that would speak to my town equity or mafia equity, but I think it's something to be noted and used for a read as opposed to just my interactions with one of my friends while the thread was deceased.
Previous ISO here
He's not wrong about me possibly coming to the wrong conclusions; I do it all the time, and had Sooh and Monty on my scum shortlist. But here, if Kage is Village, he is looking only at Manasi.
Reaction to GH's outing Csargo. This could be faked just as easily as be genuine. I'm calling this null.
Since the end of my previous ISO, this is the only time Kage mentions or talks to Dp. I think this is telling, and it looks scummy.
Not entirely wrong, but not completely true either.
Hypothetical: If GH had been scum pulling a 1-for-1 trade, then we would have lynched a "clear" town!Csargo, nabbed scum!GH today with no real discussion to progress the game, and still be at lylo tomorrow. Maybe this is a derp!Kage, but I find this wolfish.
Manasi bears more investigation, but off the top of my head, I don't read her game as lazy. Still not even glancing at Dp.
Not entirely consistent: as of this ISO, he says I am doing really well if I am scum, but he switches gears a little bit on me. Still tunneling Manasi. But, is there a reason you aren't so much as looking at Dp?
More Shading/tunneling Manasi.
Manasi responds about GH pushing her and Csargo (her town read.) Not much to say about that without doing Manasi's complete ISO.
So, Kage signs out for the night to attend to RL stuff. His next 3 are in quick succession.
All the posts he is referring to belong to Manasi, and he ends with a vote at night. I am beginning to see what he was saying of Manasi, so her ISO is next on my list. DP, you get a reprieve for the moment; you've moved up a slot because I am now questioning my Manasi read.
If Kage is a villager, he is tunneling on Manasi, perhaps unfairly so. If Kage is Mafia, forcing a mislynch on Manasi today might be his best path to victory.
I don't really think this is scum!Manasi. She's nothing like how I remember her previous scum game. I also don't think Manasi would place her partner here in her reads list
vvI know she gave that piece of self-meta herself, but it just reads a bit strange to me. Why would she single him out like that?
I feel like she's been appealing to me quite a lot this game though (mainly because I haven't been posting and generally not helped anyone at all). I am not sure if scum Manasi does that after I nailed her to the wall in her last scum game here. I would think that scum!Manasi would be happy I wasn't in the thread tbh.
Then again I know you're a good player and probably very capable of fooling me, but I'm not willing to lynch you today, and I'm assuming that I'll die N3, so I'll leave that problem to somebody else.
I find this and subsequent posts by the two of them very unlikely for mafia partners to make in the thread.
Null-reading a partner isn't unheard of though.
This is adorable and kind of derp clearing.
Not really feeling a Logic lynch today either. We'll see after I've read the two last.
Snerk basically only voted jokes when he was around, so I'm going to discount that.
Could be a partner post I guess. He was responding to a Csargo post at the time though, so I'm unsure.
Why was that Kage post odd and wolfy?
With the level of reaction that was given to GH's suss post of Dp I'm not sure I buy him just trusting GH at face value here. I know I didn't.
The subsequent spew finding effort also seems to me at least to be a flailing attempt to find two more mislynches in a very small pool (myself and GH were already clear, so he sussed first Manasi and then Logic).
I just added one of the posts I think is an example of flailing.Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
And this is where that whole read is ???
If Dp is scum here he knows he has to find two mislynches to win. He has one listed, though I guess the next logical (lol) thing to do is to go for the "probably clear" person next.
Idk, Dp, enlighten me perhaps?
This post was weird, and I said so at the time. Generally speaking I think that people who try to jumpstart a game into serious mode often are wolves, just because they don't want to be accused later on in the game for not taking things seriously. Then again, that's a generic read which has nothing to do with Kage, and while I haven't played with him a lot I think he tends to be pushed for generic tells and be mislynched because of them quite a lot, so I'm going to file it under NAI.Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
I like the specific digging of those two posts. They weren't "What are your reads and why?" (though he did have one of those as well), but indicated that he wanted to dig a bit deeper.
I dunno. I think I like Kage here.
I think I am probably leaning towards a Dp lynch today if nothing changed.
If I'm wrong I still don't think it's Manasi, but Kage and Logic are sort of a toss-up for me after that.
Still got more than 24h though, so I'm going to hold off on my vote for a bit and see if anything changes.
Manasi has got a lot to parse through, so she gets a truncated version of an ISO. He is Day and Night 1.
Manasi ISO
DAY 1Barto lynched.Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
NIGHT 1EON1: Monty Killed. Sooh cleared.Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
So, based on her D1 & N1, I'm pulling Manasi from my "likely townie" list. I'll finish her ISO later tonight. For those that want to pick up where I left off, post #222 where she laughs and bolds Kage's name is her first post of D2.
Also you need to make a decision because it seems like today's the day where everyone is locking in their POE.
And you don't seem to be getting to one. Scumreading three people when you have two lynches is nagl but I hope you figure it out in the next 21 hours.
The reason I found that earlier kage post wolfy was because of how it seemed like a complete, maybe-deliberate misinterpretation of how manasi was acting/feeling. It was clearly just frustration with software not working the way she expected it to, but Kage turned it around into manasi being aggressive generally, when she had displayed no such tendencies up to that point. I really feel like it was a stretch, enough so that it's suspicious.
I really don't get why you call my attempts at finding spew "flailing for mislynches". Like, you say that it's scummy, but what about it makes you think that I can't have been trying to do that analysis as town? Just my later uncertainty, which is present in literally every game that I've played?