Mafia IV: Night of the Living Mafia [Concluded]

Quote:

---

possible but i doubt he would be since he was a mafia member in the last mafia and would need the luck of the Irish to be selected again

---

This line of thinking is fallacious. He had the same chance of being selected as mafia for this game as any of us.

At the moment, I'm undecided on Kommodus. He does have a history of coming up with good mafia finding tools, but perhaps he's just playing off this? And two rounds of data wouldn't seem to be enough for a concrete conclusion. Mind you, if he was in the Mafia, I'm not sure what good killing Masy would do beyond wasting a lynch and killing an innocent-something which doesn't seem worth drawing attention to yourself for.

I'll sit on the fence for now.

i know he had as much chance as any of us but i still find it hard to believe someone would be lucky enough to land mafia twice in a row (thats 1/40 ish chance) hence why i dont think he is - for now at least

that said he is doing a very good job of making everyone suspect him

Ah, yes, but he has already been the mafia in one game-the probability of that event is one.

To use a coin toss analogy, the fact you throw five heads in a row doesn't mean heads is any less likely to come up on the next throw.

The law of averages, one great big lie.

Edit, I also don't like the fact that Sasaki said:

Quote:

---

The discussion I've been generating is invaluable to the town and I'm sure I can provide some usefull insight as well. You'll get neither if you lynch me.

---

Suspicious...


And BKS, remember me being the detective isn't the only reason for killing me if Sasaki is mafia. He can also easily frame someone, since he thinks I'm going ahead with this plan he can also kill off someone who's actively trying to find the mafia with the perfect alibi.

After that round, I planned to pm Sasaki saying I'd lost faith in him, which hopefully would have lead him to the conclusion that as the Detective I had investigated him and realised my mistake, in which case I might have died that round.

Like I said, I'm not convinced of Sasaki's guilt, but I think he's a risk. The only choice I think the townsfolk have is whether or not to allow him to live for a bit. I think leaving him alive till the end is not an option.

you win - guess it was a good thing i went into programming and not probability :idea2:

:sigh: People are right, if Kommodus were mafia he'd have little reason to want to become the center of attention, if he wanted to kill people he'd just do it at night.

Unvote: Kommodus
Vote: Masy


Because I'd like to see if Kommodus really has a great new system.

The Reenkster sees no argument of sufficient value to cast a doubt beyond reasonable excuses.

He abstains, courteously... :bow:

Though I have various other suspicious - almost all fully based on the posts of people. (or the non-posts of people.. people who are not posting at all)
my vote for Masy stands.

However, Kommodus, I'd much appreciate to know this 'reasoning' you're using to identify the mafia. If you don't tell next round, I don't think we'll bangwagon again.

I'm voting Masy,I too am quite curious as to Kommodus' new methode - and am going to trust him, this round that is...

:balloon2:

I'll Vote:Masy as well. I already had suspicions of him and Kommodus's method in Mafia II was quite effective.

If we lynch who he suggests and the game isn't over then we can just lynch him. Getting two people executed wouldn't be worth getting yourself executed, not at this stage. I think if he was mafia he would have pulled this out in the late game and explained his method.

Alright, I have a bit of time to think about it, and I'm willing to give Kommodus the benefit of the doubt. I Vote: Masy.

As Sasaki says, we can always lynch Kommodus later on.

Eh? Are we all forgetting about Sasaki? What if Kommodus is his partner and just trying to take the heat off?

Crazed Rabbit

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Big King Sanctaphrax

As Sasaki says, we can always lynch Kommodus later on.

---

Right. But we shouldn't make the 'Lynch if they stay alive for too long'-list too big. Sasaki is on it as well ;) :P

Sasaki, I know you've had your suspicions of Masy before.. but hey! this does look like bandwagoning! would be the first time from your side I think. Susupicious. since Masy will be fried (executed, anyway) anyway it's safe to vote for him, to proove to be a 'good boy villager' however If I'd take that as evidence you all need to be lynched lol.:laugh4:

hmmz.. it's funny I just write what comes to mind and it ends weird at times.:laugh4: :embarassed: :book:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

Eh? Are we all forgetting about Sasaki? What if Kommodus is his partner and just trying to take the heat off?

---

That's what I warned/told Silver about/for.. something might come up, and Sasaki might stay alive. We better shoudln't let him alive next round..

Somehow the Myrdraal/Sasaki thing is just too much to be just a coincidence. I'm not willing to take the risk, so here's my vote.

Vote: Sasaki Kojiro

*rises from the grave*

YOU MAFIA PUNKS!!!!!!!11111

*drops dead*

Happy Happy. Joy Joy!:laugh4: :laugh4: :2thumbsup: :2thumbsup:

Vote:Dutch_guy

Reason: Random Happiness #666

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AggonyDuck

Somehow the Myrdraal/Sasaki thing is just too much to be just a coincidence. I'm not willing to take the risk, so here's my vote.

Vote: Sasaki Kojiro

---

"Somehow"? How do you determine whether it was coincidence or not? Or are you just wagoning?

Are you avoiding giving your opinion on Kommodus's method?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by UltraWar

Happy Happy. Joy Joy!:laugh4: :laugh4: :2thumbsup: :2thumbsup:

Vote:Dutch_guy

Reason: Random Happiness #666

---

Why a random vote? That's no good for the town.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

Eh? Are we all forgetting about Sasaki? What if Kommodus is his partner and just trying to take the heat off?

Crazed Rabbit

---

If he is then he just revealed himself as the 2nd mafioso and the town wins.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Drisos

Right. But we shouldn't make the 'Lynch if they stay alive for too long'-list too big. Sasaki is on it as well ;) :P

Sasaki, I know you've had your suspicions of Masy before.. but hey! this does look like bandwagoning! would be the first time from your side I think. Susupicious. since Masy will be fried (executed, anyway) anyway it's safe to vote for him, to proove to be a 'good boy villager' however If I'd take that as evidence you all need to be lynched lol.:laugh4:

hmmz.. it's funny I just write what comes to mind and it ends weird at times.:laugh4: :embarassed: :book:

---

Look at it this way. Kommodus will have to reveal his method eventually, presumably he will when threatened with lynch or when we won't lynch his 2nd suspect without hearing the method. If the method makes sense and we can all see how it works to find mafia we'll lynch the 2nd guy and win the game. If the game isn't over after we've lynched his two suspects and his method seems fabricated then we've found one of the mafia. Either way we win.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Drisos

That's what I warned/told Silver about/for.. something might come up, and Sasaki might stay alive. We better shoudln't let him alive next round..

---

On the contrary, discussion is valuable for the town so you should leave me alive whether I'm mafia or not. There's no risk in leaving me until there's like 9 people left.

After reviewing the thread...

VOTE:MASY

I think as a general rule the town should be suspicious of anyone who doesn't respond to argument made towards them or a question posed to them. Obviously innocents do this as well (tiberius) but it would be too easy for the mafia to wiggle out of questioning this way.

I'm choosing to believe Kommodus ... for now. If he were mafia, it would be insane to put forward a candidate for lynching this early in the game. Even if he's wrong, I think his motives are clean.

Vote: Masy

After reading the last page, im still suspicious of Sasaki, even though he seems to have done a stirling job taking the heat off himself.

Quote:

---

I think as a general rule the town should be suspicious of anyone who doesn't respond to argument made towards them or a question posed to them. Obviously innocents do this as well (tiberius) but it would be too easy for the mafia to wiggle out of questioning this way.

---

Posts like this just make me even more suspicious. The type of person you have described here Sasaki is the complete opposite of yourself. Again just another post taking the attention away from you.

Of course after the evidence/accusations given in the last page by Myrd, and SR, this is exactly the type of tactic a Mafioso would use to draw attention away from himself.

I apologize now if im wrong and you are a innocent villager, perhaps i havent read into this game well enough, but im tired from work and i have food to devour.

Vote:Sasaki Kojiro

~:snowman:

Vote: Ultrawar

The use of Osmium seems like the sort of thing he'd cook up, also, while voting, he's making no sensible argument, nor is he useful to the town.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Divine Wind

After reading the last page, im still suspicious of Sasaki, even though he seems to have done a stirling job taking the heat off himself.



Posts like this just make me even more suspicious. The type of person you have described here Sasaki is the complete opposite of yourself. Again just another post taking the attention away from you.

---

Hey, I can't help that! But replying to accusations doesn't prove me to be innocent, neither does not replying prove you to be guilty. I didn't say that. But the town can't make a judgement on you without a reply, so the town should encourage people to make reply's.

Town being lazy is the last thing we want.

Quote:

---

Of course after the evidence/accusations given in the last page by Myrd, and SR, this is exactly the type of tactic a Mafioso would use to draw attention away from himself.

I apologize now if im wrong and you are a innocent villager, perhaps i havent read into this game well enough, but im tired from work and i have food to devour.

Vote:Sasaki Kojiro

~:snowman:

---

Do I really seem to be drawing attention away from myself? Only in the sense that I am trying to shine the light on others. The town must examine more than one person a turn to be succesful. We've been too one track this turn. People are voting for masy based on Kommodus's analysis but none of them seem to have looked up Masy's posts and considered whether they shine a light on anything. I have and shall post my thoughts, but I'm curious to see if anyone else will. Even with Kommodus's method we shouldn't be lazy.

Quote:

---

Vote: Masy

Due to the 'wrong' posting times at the first round, and suspicious posting.

---

Can you explain what you mean?

Quote:

---

Wow, the townspeople are really working hard to be as clever as possible in this game. I feel sorry for the Mafia.

Silver and Myrdraal, that's a clever trap you set for 'ol Sasaki. You definitely get an "A" for effort - I've never seen someone work so hard to find the mafia, in just about every game. However, if I properly understand the sequence of PM's that went back and forth, I have to say I think you're making a mistake. Killing Myrdraal would not be a logical course for Sasaki, were he truly guilty.

No, my friends, the guilty party here is Masy. How do I know, you ask? You probably won't like my answer. You may remember how, at the end of Mafia III, I said that if I had really been a villager, I'd have looked for a new method of analysis, rather than using my tired, old, and easily-defeated spreadsheet from Mafia II.

Well, that's what I've been working on, and it's yielded results, with greater speed and reliability than my older methods. Unfortunately, as in Mafia II, I can't reveal it at this time. Why, you ask? Once again, because knowledge of it would help the mafia defeat it.

However, I am very confident of this: Masy is in the mafia. Do the town a favor and take 'im down.

Masy, oh Masy the Mafioso, please do not take this personally. Having been a mobster previously, I know it can be a difficult burden to bear, and I have respect for all who must wear the mantle. I hope you've enjoyed your time in the Cosa Nostra, and a part of me wishes it'd lasted longer, as I know you do. You had a tremendous challenge before you.

Vote: Masy

---

Ehm, perhaps its just me, but haven't you just said (and I paraphrase): "Masy is guilty. Because I think he is." Fine. It's the early stages, and some people have better reasoning than others, but I am surprised that I have suddenly been bandwagoned by a large number of individuals. Perhaps if i'm executed you'll take a look at these bandwagoners more closely - from my limited experience of silvers game it seems that the mafia hide behind other voters (I voted discovery1, and he got jumped on by GH (Godfather) etc)


Edit- oh yeah, Vote: Reenk Roink, cos he always abstains.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sir Moody

this leads me to Byzantine Mercenary - not only did he jump the gun he did so jumping onto a (possibly) certain bandwagon - highly Suspicious

Vote Byzantine Mercenary

---

well actually i voted late on the previous lynching as i had been away for a day or too and missed the execution post when i was catching up.

as for who to lynch, not giving a clear reason for masy is odd but i dont think Kommodus would do that without good reason, i guess i will provisionally vote for him for the time being, im starting to think that the very fact that Sasaki's constant posting gets everyone so suspicious of him means that it would be daft to persue such a strategy as the mafia and so that he is unlikey to be mafia

so i vote masy

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masy

Perhaps if i'm executed you'll take a look at these bandwagoners more closely - from my limited experience of silvers game it seems that the mafia hide behind other voters (I voted discovery1, and he got jumped on by GH (Godfather) etc)

---

well with all the targetting of bandwaggoners i would say that is it no longer such a good strategy for the mafia

Why are people voting for Masy? He has only made one substantial post in this thread besides signing up.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masy

Here’s my take on the game so far: I don’t think Drisos’ post has much significance, it seems as if me and him were put under suspicion for being the only people to make some comments at the start of the game. His comments were a bit suss, but I don’t think it’s enough to warrant a vote. Voting on basis of osmium? I did a google search for heaviest metal and got osmium and iridium as my results. I believe these little things are just placed to keep us guessing. As for Destroyer of Hope, I know why people would see his post as bit odd, but I understand why he’s done it; he isn’t sure of who to vote for, and doesn’t want to incur any anger, so votes for someone who seemingly wants to go (I did the same myself in SR’s Godfather, I voted for Ultrawar when he voted for himself) Kage could be using some reverse psychology, but I don’t think a Mafioso could be that transparent. Nevertheless, he is my main lead at this point, purely for the oddness of his post (why sign up for a game and then want to leave in the first round?). So i Vote: Kagemusha

---

None of what he said warrants suspicion as he actually dedicates most of his post to defending other players. Not a mafia trait in my opinion. It would have been in the interest of a mafia to let Kage stay in the game. Having said this… I am out of arguments, and don’t go and say that this is suspicious. Having been a mafia doesn’t actually help with your credibility. Sasaki has made some good arguments but people are wary of him. I don’t expect people following my lead as they did in ‘Gotta have more mafia’. Even I feel that Kommodus’ new method is bogus.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

Why are people voting for Masy? He has only made one substantial post in this thread besides signing up. None of what he said warrants suspicion as he actually dedicates most of his post to defending other players. Not a mafia trait in my opinion. It would have been in the interest of a mafia to let Kage stay in the game. Having said this… I am out of arguments, and don’t go and say that this is suspicious. Having been a mafia doesn’t actually help with your credibility. Sasaki has made some good arguments but people are wary of him. I don’t expect people following my lead as they did in ‘Gotta have more mafia’. Even I feel that Kommodus’ new method is bogus.

---

No, I think defending other players would be a good mafia strategy (make friends, people less likely to vote you). I don't feel we can judge Kommodus's new method until we know what it is. He won't reveal it now but I feel we should make him reveal it before the next lynch. If it's a good method we've hit jackpot for the town really, and if it's bad there's a good chance that Kommodus is mafia trying a dangerous ploy.