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It's shameful how Trump has just thrown the Kurds to the wolves (ie Turkey) with no warning whatsoever after all the sacrifices they've made to defeat Daesh. If events in Afrin are any indication we can expect to see forced displacement and ethnic cleansing once Turkey invades. Not to mention the Syrian militias backed by Turkey have done a piss poor job of governing the areas they control and many have ties to Jihadists, so I wouldn't be surprised if this move inadvertently allows Daesh to revitalize and make a comeback. The YPG will probably turn to terrorism out of desperation as well, as they've done in Afrin. All in all it's a horrible situation for the people of Northern Syria who've enjoyed relative peace until now. The only way out is for them to cede everything to the Syrian government, which is a pretty raw deal considering that Assad is a tyrant who treated the Kurds horribly in the past.
Not just Trump the whole West looks away from the misery of the Kurds.
Why on EARTH should the West get involved in these frankly tribal / ethnic spats? Their demands are mainly zero-sum.
Giving them money / supplies enables them to kill each other better
Sending humanitarian aid achieves pretty much the same thing.
Sending in troops ends up with not only costing a fortune but getting the hatred from both sides - as well as the likely terrorist - sorry freedom fighter - attacks.
In conclusion, the only thing each faction in the region wants from the west is the ability to beat the others.
~:smoking:
Absolutily right of course
Local non-Kurdish rulers treating the Kurds horribly is a pretty common experience for the governments in that region. Arguably, it is one of the few long-term policy goals that they have shared and continue to share.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuuvi
US governments have always been haphazard in their treatment of the Kurds, always deeming Kurdish needs secondary to the appeasement of Turkey or stability in Syria and Iraq. You can add in Bush 41's famous gaffe where he implied we would support a rebellion effort which the Kurd's took for a promise and not rhetoric and got quite a few Kurds dead for their trouble.
Oh, and you can add in Trump's depth of experience with international affairs (:rolleyes:) and geopolitics into the mix.
Rampant cynicism always seems too dystopian to me....except when speaking of the Middle East.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Normally I'm anti-intervention, not only because it just makes things worse as you say but also because I don't believe the US or any other country actually has good intentions when they start messing around abroad. However in this case the US was already there, and now they are pulling out without warning right when Turkey is threatening an invasion, totally leaving the SDF out to dry.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Also, the SDF/YPG's political program, Democratic Confederalism, explicitly rejects nationalism and there are Arabs and Assyrians within the SDF and the autonomous administration. I know some analysts claim they're a token presence and it's just propaganda, but I've been following the situation in North Syria for a while and I believe the Kurds' attempts to work with the other ethnic groups in the region is genuine, it's just that there's a lot of mistrust between them that has to be overcome.
I understand the German Foriegn Minister has tweeted that America's action is "deeply irresponsible".
If he is aware of the great ocean of irony that sits beneath the statement, he's doing a stellar job of hiding it!
Banking on the USA staying the course is a severe case of hope over reality. At best, some of the survivors might be airlifted away from their homes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuuvi
The Kurds want a homeland. But no country in the region wants them to have one. Unless the West goes all 19/20th Century and gifts them someone else's land and then pays indefinitely for the upkeep and protection what hope does it have?
Before the USA starts trying to understand thousands of years of geopolitical reality in the Middle East, perhaps they could start to sort out the "mistrust" the Native Americans have and start giving them back more land that they said is theirs.
~:smoking:
A bit rich coming from an Englishman.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
In the wake of such an abrupt skirting of our commitments, the least we could do is bring our most visible supporters over here. Trump won't do that because of his racism, but it would be the moral thing to do.
I'm not the one implying that for the want of some trust they'd all be bestest buddies. When we were taking land from the people who took land from the previous people we did it since we were stronger, not some divine right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strike For The South
I think it is beyond the will of the West to sort out the mess since there is no will for the levels of slaughter, repression and destruction of cultures to get stable borders.
~:smoking:
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I never said it was the US's job to sort out relations between Kurds and Arabs. I just think they shouldn't abandon the SDF so soon before some measure of peace and stability has been achieved.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
And again, the SDF are not nationalists or separatists. Their stated goal is a federal system of government for Syria where all the ethnic components would have their own autonomy.
And I imagine the surrounding countries view this as a first step towards unifying the Kurdish lands. Iran and Turkey have no desire to see this happening.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuuvi
~:smoking:
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This is an aside, but I did not take you as a Huawei fan, @rory_20_uk
It is quite interesting indeed when SDF and Assad forces are the only ones fighting ISIS together at Hajin, with US air support, while Turkey prepares to invade the SDF controlled areas at Northern Syria. Meantime US secretary of Defense Mattis resigns after Trumps decisions concerning withdrawals from both Syria and Afghanistan. Now Afghanistan i can somewhat understand to a degree, but if US withdraws from Syria.It will mean that Russian backed Assad regime is going nowhere and my bet is that next problems will rise between Syrian government and Turkey.
An amusing analogy I saw was the difference between leaving through the front door and leaving through an upper-story window.
Of the ~2500 troops stationed in Syria, Trump says 400 will remain, and most of the rest will be "going to different parts of the world", such as Iraq.
(Maybe Venezuela lol? -Ed.)
Abandoning the Kurds will go down as a great shame. If we are not going to help them there, we should at least help them get here. That won't happen because Trump, but it should.
A report was published by the Rojava Information Center on the system of government being implemented in the Kurdish controlled areas of Syria and their system seems to be pretty interesting and unique compared to other types of government around the word.
Despite the Turkish invasion and the deal with Russia and Assad which allowed regime troops to move into SDF areas this system is still being implemented and Assad has not taken full control of North and East Syria yet. The Kurds still hope to reach some sort of agreement with the Syrian regime that would allow the Autonomous Administration and the SDF to continue to govern the areas they control, but negotiations are at a standstill because neither side refuses to budge.
Over the past 10 days, the SAA has undergone an Afghan-style collapse worse than anything else in the civil war. With well over 300 pieces of heavy armor documented lost, almost all captured, so far - following on a few thousand lost in the 2010s, largely irreplaceable - the SAA has arguably suffered the worst military defeat of the century. At no time have even the Russians in Ukraine suffered such catastrophes, either relatively or absolutely. Assad's family has reportedly evacuated. The Wagner Group was long ago politely evicted from Syria, and Russia's military presence is basically just a security element for its naval base. Things could get really awful again. Best case would be for the people of Latakia, Tartus, and Damascus spontaneously round up and execute or exile all the Assadists once and for all, while offering stiff enough resistance to the Islamists to bottle them back up in the north, and conclude an agreement on governance with the AANES.
I hope this discourages Russia's allies from starting invasions of their own in the other regions.
At least the signs seem to point at the HTS trying to be somewhat moderate in how they will govern. Islamic, yes, but not ISIS or Taliban either and at least for now the minorities apart from the Kurds look fairly safe to stay in Syria.