Rumour Control ie the bailout/nonbailout of the Irish republic

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Gaelic is no longer an interesting conversation partner. He does not represent a sovereign country anymore. So let's rather discuss the terms under which Britain can resume control over paddystan again.

I propose we consider it in the context of the inevitable demise of Belgium. How about the UK gets Ireland, France gets to assume control over Flanders, and we satisfy any German demands by offering them Greece?

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Ha ha mwah ha ha the Euro is doomed the longer we stay inside it and you know it, EU governemts are :daisy: themselves that potentially FF wont accept the bailout a potential timebomb for Spain/Portugal/Greece/Italy.

When the Irish government says it's fully funded there not lying you know hence every finance minister is coming to Dublin to basically threaten/cajole/plead with our government to take the bailout to save the rest of the PIIGS(Greece/Portugal check there statements if you still havent figured it out yet)

You need to get serious about the fact the Euro is a political and not an economic construction since that means sensible economic policy is not followed this will just happen again and again and again. No one here actually wants the bailout we would actually prefer to just cut and work hard at sorting our own economy, but we are not heartless we talking about a possible once off full complete bailout of our banks to satisfy the :daisy: bond traders in order to help the bond rates cool for the other and far larger PIIGS.

I predict if Ireland takes EFSF money the bond markets will not be satisfied and will move to the next target, far better to take a strictly IMF bailout that avoids the EFSF(it cant be used for banks anyway). The markets have been sceptical about it's implementation since the beginning anyway they believe if EFSF is invoked it will just lead to a race of the PIIGS to get it eventually Germany calls a halt by devaluing all the debt and transferring ownership of distressed banks to bondholders.

The last thing we need is more government debt and why should Germany give us money anyway I say let the IMF run BOI, AIB, and Anglo into the ground ordinary depositers money is safe up to 100 grand anyway.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Gaelic is no longer an interesting conversation partner. He does not represent a sovereign country anymore. So let's rather discuss the terms under which Britain can resume control over paddystan again.

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Wait, wait, wait a minute. Does this mean I will have to start giving money to the IRA again? :inquisitive:

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Originally Posted by rory_20_uk

France also needs to do more about those small principalities on its border who do little more than provide tax havens for companies and individuals. Invade the lot, it should only take a weekend.

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Like... Sark?

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I've no idea why Germany would want Greece. I've little idea why anyone would want Greece.

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Same reason why anyone would want certain parts France or Italy: nice weather, landscape, and has some cultural heritage. Exact same reason why no-one wants Northern Scotland, Alaska or other such places by choice: too wet/cold/forsaken.

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Belgium could be divided amongst France, the Netherlands and Germany.

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No it couldn't. Belgians have a “can't live with you, can't live without you” type or relationship with the other Belgians. Before you know it they'll be flying Belgian flags in the former Belgian regions, speak French or German in Flanders, and Dutch or German in Wallonia, and French or Dutch in that little part which is basically Germany. They'll insist they really need 3 languages to communicate anything. And they'll withhold the chocolate and beer.

At that point the French will have to reconsider all their national stereotypes and Nord-Pas-de-Calais may no longer suffice for “promoting” people out of the way.

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Originally Posted by drone

Wait, wait, wait a minute. Does this mean I will have to start giving money to the IRA again? :inquisitive:

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Yes. Already they are leaving for your shores again!


Irish history:

400 St Patrick. Ireland saves Christianity.
400-1848 Nothing
1848-1916 Potatoes, famine, mass emigration
1916-1995 Civil Wars, bombs
1995-2010 Happiness! Loadsa money, a second home for every Irishman. Ireland to live happily ever after!
2010 As if. Dream on. Destitution for the Irish again. Emigration. Bankruptcy.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Yes. Already they are leaving for your shores again!


Irish history:

400 St Patrick. Ireland saves Christianity.
400-1848 Nothing
1848-1916 Potatoes, famine, mass emigration
1916-1995 Civil Wars, bombs
1995-2010 Happiness! Loadsa money, a second home for every Irishman. Ireland to live happily ever after!
2010 As if. Dream on. Destitution for the Irish again. Emigration. Bankruptcy.

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2010 Christine Lagarde pleading/begging/threatening us to take the koolade to save the Euro(as if it will work we both know it's a sham)

2011 the D-mark is reissued due to an new government in Germany every agrees it was all a big mistake to have currency union without political union.

2012 and beyond everyone on the org cops it has little effect on there day to day lives and we get back to real life pcgaming.

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Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy

agrees it was all a big mistake to have currency union without political union.

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Exactly, that is why a political union is needed.

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Originally Posted by Beskar

Exactly, that is why a political union is needed.............

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.............. for those who want it!

quick, let's have a referendum in Britain so we can say "YES!" straight away, good idea huh?


oh, wait............:oops:

We could keep having referendums sponsored by the EU every, say, 6 months. The "no" campaign would run out of money soon enough and they might get the right, sorry, the "yes" vote at some point due to voter fatigue or just random change then we could stop having them.

~:smoking:

well Beskar would be happy, wouldn't that be good enough?

@ Louis if this bailout goes ahead in the EFSF form it wont work and the nightmare of the Neo-Liberal public service model you keep talking about as a conspiracy will actually happen to France.

The bond traders are not afraid of losing money on this deal in fact they stand to lose only if they debt is revalued, thats why they got so stroppy on Irelands bond rate thats why there threatening Portugal/Italy/Spain and Greece. There demanding full payment for something that has not happened yet, effectively were being had bailing out massive positions in effectively worthless paper.

There high fiving each other in those hedge funds all week just take a look at the bank shares in Ireland they actually went UP :dizzy2: no Irish person bought them thats for sure.

this is not the fault of 'predatory' hedge-funds either, it is the fault of creating an unworkable monetary-union for ridiculous political-dreams.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

this is not the fault of 'predatory' hedge-funds either, it is the fault of creating an unworkable monetary-union for ridiculous political-dreams.

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That may be what got us here but that is not what is forcing the bailouts all over the place, they know that the EU is too embarrassed to actually revalue the Euro or the government debt.

It's the first real crisis in the Eurozone so they piled in knowing full well countries like Ireland would cut services etc while France and Germany would demand the euro be maintained it was never going to work and they were right.

You could argue that they are simply taking advantage of a good position and that pig headedness is holding us in the matrix of an untenable position.

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Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy

That may be what got us here but that is not what is forcing the bailouts all over the place, they know that the EU is too embarrassed to actually revalue the Euro or the government debt.

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granted, sounds like the solution is to collectively accept political union, with all that entails, or admit the failure of a ridiculous political ideology and return to the EEC; a cooperative and harmonious free trade area.

rumpey pumpey talking about the survival of the EU makes me laugh, not my EU, hasn't been since it lost the extra "E" in EEC.

i don't want his political union.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

granted, sounds like the solution is to collectively accept political union, with all that entails, or admit the failure of a ridiculous political ideology and return to the EEC; a cooperative and harmonious free trade area.

rumpey pumpey talking about the survival of the EU makes me laugh, not my EU, hasn't been since it lost the extra "E" in EEC.

i don't want his political union.

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Did you watch Newsnight tonight I'm now more convinced than ever the Euro will go the way of the ERM maybe not yet but I cannot see it lasting past 2020 at the maximum. Mostly I think there just annoyed they will have to listen to the likes of Farage and co laughing at them with "I told you so" but the market will eventually force the issue on them just like 1992 on UK and Ireland trying to peg to D-mark.

I admit that it will be painful to junk it but not half as painful as going through this again.

I admit now here that the Euro was a massive mistake for Ireland when allied to light touch banking regulation and with a young population who needed capital to open a business buy a home etc etc.

We were doing grand until the dotcom crash and the 9-11 attack no problems for our economy we were always in the black but slowly like a virus easy credit for our banks became a drug. Anglo Irish Bank will go down in the history of this country like An Gorta Mor(the famine) Sean Fitzpatrick is basically the ultimate evil gilded age robber baron and his supposed success made other banks foolishly follow him.

reintroduce the punt, and peg it to sterling, we'll bail irelands banks out.

It is what I would do but the ECB cannot allow it to happen as first there all out of a job and second they are just unable to frame this in economic terms. Listen to the quotes all week it is all rubbish about the EU being in a survival crisis it's bunkum pure and simple.

We basically went into the Euro out of a fear we might be left behind a Eurozone that powered ahead, plenty economists warned this might happen but the debate was really framed by the political elite as a case of in or out of Europe.

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Originally Posted by rory_20_uk

France also needs to do more about those small principalities on its border who do little more than provide tax havens for companies and individuals. Invade the lot, it should only take a weekend.

I've no idea why Germany would want Greece. I've little idea why anyone would want Greece. Belgium could be divided amongst France, the Netherlands and Germany.

The UK doesn't want Ireland, as it's full of the Irish. Cromwell did his best, but sadly a few of the buggers weren't hunted down. Vermin are difficult to exterminate... The best solution would be a bilateral treaty with free trade and a currency ratio. I don't think that anything more than that would sit well with either side.

~:smoking:

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Ahh, and so it begins. I like European wars; we can drink alcohol when we're not on duty. :barrel:

:laugh4:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Yes. Already they are leaving for your shores again!


Irish history:

400 St Patrick. Ireland saves Christianity.
400-1848 Nothing
1848-1916 Potatoes, famine, mass emigration
1916-1995 Civil Wars, bombs
1995-2010 Happiness! Loadsa money, a second home for every Irishman. Ireland to live happily ever after!
2010 As if. Dream on. Destitution for the Irish again. Emigration. Bankruptcy.

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Louis: if we ever meet, drinks are on me.

Just to be clear: I'm not laughing at Ireland's misfortune. :no:

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Originally Posted by Vladimir

Ahh, and so it begins. I like European wars; we can drink alcohol when we're not on duty. :barrel:

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It'll be over before christmas :yes: at least thats what the elite will tell us.

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Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy

I admit now here that the Euro was a massive mistake for Ireland when allied to light touch banking regulation and with a young population who needed capital to open a business buy a home etc etc.

We were doing grand until the dotcom crash and the 9-11 attack no problems for our economy we were always in the black

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No Ireland was not doing grand. Like Greece, Ireland refused to levy taxes. That works for a brief while, but one can't base a sustainable economy on such a dreamland.

Ireland should accept an EU bailout and the Thatcherite discipline that it will bring with it. It is not so bad, it is only Europe's mighty Teutonic centre imposing its stern discipline on Europe's periphery - which is the whole point of the Euro. It is God's punishment for us foolishly having stopped Germany's previous attempts at European overlordship:

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the Germans knew something like this was going to happen. Indeed it was supposed to happen. The whole point of the euro with its strict anti-inflationary rules was to ram through economic reform in the soft underbelly of Europe. Any country that has the same currency as Germany is going to have to perform to a similar standard of efficiency. Bloated public payrolls, stupid subsidies for uncompetitive industries, underinvestment in science, technology and education, corruption, tax exemption for the professional classes etc – you can't afford that kind of laissez-faire unless you periodically devaluate your currency.

Since no government on the Mediterranean rim was willing to take the political risk that Margaret Thatcher undertook in order to make Britain competitive again, the euro was introduced; the euro was supposed to be for southern Europe what Maggie's TINA – "there is no alternative" – was for Britain. And so it has turned out. Ask the Greeks. And the Irish, the Portuguese, the Spanish and the Italians. (Well, not the Italians. They're too busy watching the antics of the dirty old man who poses as prime minister. But they're going to have to switch off the TV some time.)

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

No Ireland was not doing grand. Like Greece, Ireland refused to levy taxes. That works for a brief while, but one can't base a sustainable economy on such a dreamland.

Ireland should accept an EU bailout and the Thatcherite discipline that it will bring with it. It is not so bad, it is only Europe's mighty Teutonic centre imposing its stern discipline on Europe's periphery - which is the whole point of the Euro. It is God's punishment for us foolishly having stopped Germany's previous attempts at European overlordship:

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Louis your obsessed with corporation tax no part of this crisis came from low-tax on Ireland's real economy it came from a collapse in house prices and an overextended banking system fueled by an unsustainable property boom. We have a tax here called Stamp Duty when you buy a house it is really big and it cannot be borrowed against it must be up front by the buyer. Our government used stamp duty to fund the public sector increases here and through it this tax was our downfall as the government had pots of cash to bribe electorates and none of us not even yourself had copped the potential timebomb.

What we should have had was a stricter banking regulator and that is about the height of it, even now the whole debate here is framed by how the banks and government conspired to keep the property boom going to win elections.

You can indeed run our economy on low tax what we cannot do is borrow foreign money forever and expect French style public services to last when it's based on a property tax. If we try to tax big to fund public services it will fail were too small we cannot and do not need to give in to a fictitious idea that we can run an economy on other peoples money that includes taxes as well as German bond cash.

The way to stop this happening again is to reintroduce rates on property you own to discourage large scale investment by the populace.

To have stronger regulation of casino and highstreet banks they basically codded us since reagan with light touch financialism.

To discourage long term loans ie mortgages with short term capital loans (yes they borrowed for long term with short term money)

There is no need to raise tax on business at all when people here pay no water charges or no carbon tax they pay no rates etc there is plenty scope to raise tax just the right ones.

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Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy

It is what I would do but the ECB cannot allow it to happen as first there all out of a job and second they are just unable to frame this in economic terms. Listen to the quotes all week it is all rubbish about the EU being in a survival crisis it's bunkum pure and simple.

We basically went into the Euro out of a fear we might be left behind a Eurozone that powered ahead, plenty economists warned this might happen but the debate was really framed by the political elite as a case of in or out of Europe.

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bunkum it might be, but its up to ireland whether it chooses to accept it, or act in its own interest instead.

plenty of economists thought that thatchers cuts in the 80's would stall the economy too.............

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

No Ireland was not doing grand. Like Greece, Ireland refused to levy taxes. That works for a brief while, but one can't base a sustainable economy on such a dreamland.

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absurdity! the fact that ireland's economy was working on a fixed exchange rate that followed the euro's titan, germany, rather than one that was correctly valued for ireland had nothing to do with it? nor too that the interest rate again centred around what was right and appropriate for germany, rather than the peripheral nations? come on Louis, there's a brain in there that can come up with much more than witty and vapid platitudes.

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economist on ireland's bail-out:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/charl...and_and_euro_0

interestingly, austria are now threatening ireland as well as greece with non payment of bail-out funds. how's that european solidarity coming along, eh?

The deal is done were just haggling over price now, as I predicted the money will be in the form of a loan to the banks which the government can draw on in a nuclear situation as a buffer should they need it. This is the best way forward the Government takes on no more debt the banks have ability to weather any loss which should take the heat out of the bond market now. The pressure should ease on sovereign debt next week when the deal is announced and Portugal/Spain and Greece can breathe a little easier.

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RTE News Central Bank Governor expects loan offer

Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan has said he expects talks between the IMF, ECB and European Commission will result in a loan being offered to Ireland.

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Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Governor of the Central Bank Patrick Honohan has said he expects that talks between the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, which begin in Dublin today, will result in a loan being offered to Ireland.
Opposition leaders have welcomed the clarity of his remarks.
The representatives of the IMF, the ECB and the Commission will discuss Ireland's four-year budgetary plan and the restructuring of the banking sector.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Honohan said the negotiations were not about a bailout, but would lead to a loan of tens of billions to Ireland, and that the Government would have to accept it.
'The intention is and the expectation is, on their part and personally on my part, that negotiations or discussions will be effective and a loan will be made available and drawn down as necessary,' Professor Honohan said.
He said he did not see the visit as a 'worrisome' event or something that would lead to a change in the Government's direction on the economy.
The Governor also said the IMF and ECB would not bring a big technical team to Dublin if they were not sure that a plan could be designed and agreed for the Irish economy.
Professor Honohan said the interest rate charged on any loans from the IMF/ECB will be roughly in line with previous IMF loans, but says the issue is complicated.
On the banks, he said the huge amounts of money put into them already have not yet generated sufficient confidence on international markets.
He said the banks will use any IMF/ECB money as contingent funding which can be shown to international investors but does not have to be used. The funds can be used as a buffer and come back out when they are not needed, as happened in the US in 2008.
Professor Honohan said there have been substantial outflows of deposits from the banks since April as large investment funds and institutions, which had invested in the Irish banks at the height of the economic boom and when the country had an AAA rating, decided to pull out when we lost that rating.
But he pointed out that all this was replaced by borrowings from the ECB. He said the banks have the facilities to deal with these outflows of money.
This afternoon, Taoiseach Brian Cowen said the Central Bank Governor is entitled to give his view of the outcome of talks with European officials and the IMF.
However, he said his responsibility is to get the best possible outcome for the country and taxpayers.
He denied he was talking in riddles and says he is discharging his job responsibly.
EC president says no pressure on Ireland
President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso has said the Commission was not putting pressure on Ireland to resort to EU financial help, but added that it must act speedily due to a very specific problem in the banking sector.
The Taoiseach again insisted that the Government was not involved in negotiations on a bailout.
Today's talks follow two days of discussions in Brussels involving eurozone and EU finance ministers on a way forward for Ireland.
While the Government had attempted to draw a distinction between emergency aid for the banks and for the State, it is being reported this morning that there is now a reluctant acceptance that any funding for the banks will have to be drawn by the State.
A further priority will be to preserve Ireland's 12.5% corporation tax. But already there is pressure on that front with the Austrian finance minister saying there needed to be talks with the Irish Government about the issue.
However, Minister for Enterprise, Trade & Innovation Batt O'Keeffe has again insisted that Ireland's corporate tax rate is not an issue for consultation or negotiation as part of the talks with IMF and EU officials.
Meanwhile, Seán Power, Fianna Fáil TD for Kildare South, has said the Government failed the people by its inability to explain the current financial and economic situation.
Mr Power told the Dáil last night that a game of semantics was being played in the past week, which he said was a poor one for the Government.
He claimed ministers had treated people as if they could not understand the complexities of the financial situation that we are in

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RTE News Contingency fund a desirable outcome: Lenihan

Brian Lenihan has told the Dáil that if a substantial contingency fund arose from talks with the IMF and the EU it would be a 'very desirable outcome' - but he said they were not at that point yet.

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Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The Minister for Finance has told the Dáil that if a substantial contingency fund arose from talks with the IMF and the European Union it would be a 'very desirable outcome' - but he said they were not at that point yet.
Brian Lenihan also said that if the Government had been reticent in public comment about contact with our European partners and the International Monetary Fund, it had been to protect the taxpayer.
He said it was the job of the Government to protect the taxpayer and that is what it is doing.
He said our problems did not relate to budgetary matters but they were problems of a structural nature in the banking sector.
The minister said the IMF, ECB and the European Commission were here to look at what shape a financial package might take and there was no question of loading an unspecified burden on the taxpayer.
He again defended the bank guarantee saying the governor had defended it this morning and the European finance ministers have agreed it was the correct strategy at the time.
The minister has moved to reassure the public that all deposits in Irish banks are 'safe and secure'.
Mr Lenihan began his contribution on the banking crisis by saying there had been misinformed, inaccurate and misleading comments about the guarantee.
He said it had been extended by a vote of the House yesterday.
Fine Gael's Finance Spokesman described the Government's banking strategy as 'disastrous' and accused it of pursuing it in the teeth of opposition.
Michael Noonan said the Government was an embarrassment to the Irish people and the Governor of the Central Bank felt the onus to come out and explain to the Irish people what was happening.
He called for those who lent recklessly to share the burden of the cost of the banking woes.
He said we now had an answer to the New York Times' editorial question - 'Could a bank bring down a country?'.
Deputy Noonan welcomed the minister's clarification on the banking guarantee, saying he had been contacted by constituents asking him if they should open sterling accounts and move their money.
He accused the minister of moving his position on negotiations with holders of senior debt saying the minister initially indicated legal advice had informed him that they could not be negotiated with.
That position was now changing, he said.

I imagine the only two banks who will draw on this fund IF worst came to the worst would be Anglo Irish Bank and Allied Irish Bank. However the new financial regulator Mathew Elderfield already ordered extra capital requirements in all Irish banks ages ago so I expect the fund may never get used. This merely happened because no one believed AIB, BOI and Anglo figures and when this deal is inked there will be no need to worry as the traders are guaranteed payment.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

interestingly, austria are now threatening ireland as well as greece with non payment of bail-out funds. how's that european solidarity coming along, eh?

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Yes, I can fully relate to that.

Greece and Ireland refuse to levy taxes. Instead, they spend spend spend on the wave of a strong Euro. Then their dreamland collapses. Rather than face up to it, politicians cling on and on to illusory hopes of finding some sort of solution. They can afford to do this, because they realise that the European safety net is always there. Only when each and every other internal, face-saving possiblity has been exhausted, only then, do the Irish and Greek politicians agree with a bail-out.

Meanwhile, the bills pile on for the European taxpayer, who apparantly just has to sit there while the eventual bill rises every day because of Irish pigheadedness.

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Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy

The deal is done were just haggling over price now

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Yes, thank you Dublin.

That took Dublin only a full week of wasting everybody's time. And everybody else's tax money.

I do want my ten quid if the deal is finalised today.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Ten quid says you'll have a bailout before the end of the week.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Yes, I can fully relate to that.

Greece and Ireland refuse to levy taxes. Instead, they spend spend spend on the wave of a strong Euro. Then their dreamland collapses. Rather than face up to it, politicians cling on and on to illusory hopes of finding some sort of solution. They can afford to do this, because they realise that the European safety net is always there. Only when each and every other internal, face-saving possiblity has been exhausted, only then, do the Irish and Greek politicians agree with a bail-out.

Meanwhile, the bills pile on for the European taxpayer, who apparantly just has to sit there while the eventual bill rises every day because of Irish pigheadedness.

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rubbish.

ireland doesn't have a sovereign debt crisis, it has a bank crisis.

This thread needs more discussion on cheese.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Yes, I can fully relate to that.

Greece and Ireland refuse to levy taxes. Instead, they spend spend spend on the wave of a strong Euro. Then their dreamland collapses. Rather than face up to it, politicians cling on and on to illusory hopes of finding some sort of solution. They can afford to do this, because they realise that the European safety net is always there. Only when each and every other internal, face-saving possiblity has been exhausted, only then, do the Irish and Greek politicians agree with a bail-out.

Meanwhile, the bills pile on for the European taxpayer, who apparantly just has to sit there while the eventual bill rises every day because of Irish pigheadedness.

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Hmph. Mr. "I Love The Welfare State" is against welfare for states.

You've really got a sore spot over countries that don't buy into France's high tax scheme, huh?

CR

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Gaelic is no longer an interesting conversation partner. He does not represent a sovereign country anymore. So let's rather discuss the terms under which Britain can resume control over paddystan again.

I propose we consider it in the context of the inevitable demise of Belgium. How about the UK gets Ireland, France gets to assume control over Flanders, and we satisfy any German demands by offering them Greece?

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Surely Ireland should be returned to Nordic countries like is just and rightful. :P Afterall only reason we are in the EU is to pay for the bancrupcies of the Western and Southern prodigals.

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Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

Hmph. Mr. "I Love The Welfare State" is against welfare for states.

You've really got a sore spot over countries that don't buy into France's high tax scheme, huh?

CR

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ironically, he is a giant flying advert for why a federal european union can never work, and the more he blindly protests about the inequities of others in failing to meet the european 'standard' the more obvious it is to everyone else that IT just ain't gonna work! :D

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Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

Hmph. Mr. "I Love The Welfare State" is against welfare for states.

You've really got a sore spot over countries that don't buy into France's high tax scheme, huh?

CR

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The United States has a higher corporate tax burden than France. :beam:

Strong, assertive governments make for happy, wealthy capitalist countries. North America and the European continent have sustainalbe taxation rates. These countries are undermined by the predatory tax havens which seem to be the norm in the entire Atlantic, from Bermuda and the Cayman Islands to Ireland, Isle of Man and Guernsey. Even the UK can't choose between being a responsible taxation country or a predatory one.


Japan - 40%
Canada - 36%
USA - 35%
France/Germany - 33.33%
UK - 28%
African hellholes - 28% to12.5%
Ireland - 12.5%