Coronavirus / COVID-19

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The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable

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I get that. What I was referring to more was if COVID-19 had started in a third world country with little impact on global economy, instead of China with it's huge global footprint, would the media coverage be the same? I also think that because COVID-19 is new variation of SARS, and because of that, it will take some time for immune systems to learn how to fight it (and no vaccines to combat it, either), we tend to focus on it just for the newness of it:shrug:

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Just like we don't really care about poor people in general

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The millions of people carrying smart phones (and the businesses that make them) will certainly take notice if the current Ebola out-break in the DRC reaches the tantalum mines:sweatdrop:

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Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan

We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof.


That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.

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Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.

I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.

Ervebo sounds good too.

Mother sent me this this evening - I opined that I didn't think gargling was worth much.

Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.

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Originally Posted by Greyblades

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.

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He was referring to virus spores out in the open, not interacting within the system of a host.

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Originally Posted by Greyblades

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.

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The chain mail likely simplified at point of origin, or degraded over time.

According to this work:

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Most data were described with the endemic human coronavirus strain (HCoV-) 229E. On different types of materials it can remain infectious for from 2 hours up to 9 days. A higher temperature such as 30°C or 40°C reduced the duration of persistence of highly pathogenic MERS-CoV, TGEV and MHV. However, at 4°C persistence of TGEV and MHV can be increased to ≥ 28 days. Few comparative data obtained with SARS-CoV indicate that persistence was longer with higher inocula (Table I). In addition it was shown at room temperature that HCoV-229E persists better at 50% compared to 30% relative humidity [8].

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Hydrogen peroxide and ethanol still good disinfectants though.

Apparently 'blades' skepticism and Monty's seconding thereof are on point. 26/27 debrees Celsius would likely reduce COVID-19, but NOT eliminate. Apparently temperatures need to be 'north' of 30 to have a profound impact. Article.

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:

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Considering that the whole thing could be fabricated and that there is no way to do a background check on the author, it might be best to treat it as noise and discard it rather than analyze it.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.

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The most recent outbreak of Ebola might have killed fewer people than COVID-19 as well; 2254 registered deaths per 18 February.

Surprised no one has posted about the Wuhan-400 conspiracy theory yet.
https://fullfact.org/online/book-did...t-coronavirus/

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The most recent outbreak of Ebola might have killed fewer people than COVID-19 as well

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Maybe so but, considering the location of the outbreak, it has a chance to be very disruptive to certain areas of the global economy if it spreads to DRC's mine districts. Considering that the DRC produces 30% of the world's tantalum, and neighboring Rwanda 31%, widespread mine closures for any extended length of time, would hit the electronics industry pretty hard. Yet......

......you hardly hear about this because, IMHO, the DRC and Rwanda are relatively poor third world countries. :creep:

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.

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Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.

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Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan

Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.

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I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

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100% infection rate at 3% death rate would result in roughly 23.4 million deaths.

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

100% infection rate at 3% death rate would result in roughly 23.4 million deaths.

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Again, death rate is currently estimated at 1%, many who become infected are a-symptomatic and there's no guarantee everyone will become infected.

So...

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

Again, death rate is currently estimated at 1%, many who become infected are a-symptomatic and there's no guarantee everyone will become infected.

So...

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If you are under 40 the chance of dying is much slimmer.
The 5 deaths in Washington state are from elderly and compromised individuals.

What we should be discussing is how we respond to the growing number of epidemics which will without a doubt continue to arise.
The global population is aging and will be more susceptible to these outbreaks over time. Last time I checked only 3% of American workers work remote/from home.

How do we restructure our work and government institutions to prevent an even more dangerous virus from spreading without having to resort to large scale quarantine and a halt on production.

I'll admit I bought into the fear a little bit and just stocked up on about a month of canned goods. But I am not afraid of dying from the virus, more afraid of that loss of production.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

Hydrogen peroxide and ethanol still good disinfectants though.

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Ethanol needs high concentration to be effective.
Chlorine based cleaners also should do well.

Effectiveness for any type of disinfectant depends on concentration, time, and temperature. Just because you wiped a surface once with a damp paper towel of hydrogen peroxide doesn't mean it is suddenly free of all viruses/spores/bacteria.

The American Physical Society just cancelled its annual physics conference a day before it was scheduled to commence. Tens of thousands of attendees left hanging. One more price we pay.

Devastating thread. I REALLY hope we get a lucky break.
https://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/s...80123244580864

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Apparently 'blades' skepticism and Monty's seconding thereof are on point. 26/27 debrees Celsius would likely reduce COVID-19, but NOT eliminate. Apparently temperatures need to be 'north' of 30 to have a profound impact. Article.

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I feel smug because I read the same article but clicked through to the source material in my post.

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Originally Posted by Viking

Considering that the whole thing could be fabricated and that there is no way to do a background check on the author, it might be best to treat it as noise and discard it rather than analyze it.

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Smart.

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Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name

Ethanol needs high concentration to be effective.
Chlorine based cleaners also should do well.

Effectiveness for any type of disinfectant depends on concentration, time, and temperature. Just because you wiped a surface once with a damp paper towel of hydrogen peroxide doesn't mean it is suddenly free of all viruses/spores/bacteria.

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The study Seamus and I link referred to a benchmark of 1 minute (or 30 second, or 10 minute) contact/exposure, but as with temperature there's a geometric curve in the resilience of the virus. Even 1 minute is long. What's good for peons?

Concentrations tested reflect what is commercially available. For example, (dilute) 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or isopropyl 50%-100%.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

The study Seamus and I link referred to a benchmark of 1 minute (or 30 second, or 10 minute) contact/exposure, but as with temperature there's a geometric curve in the resilience of the virus. Even 1 minute is long. What's good for peons?

Concentrations tested reflect what is commercially available. For example, (dilute) 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or isopropyl 50%-100%.

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I'm just making a general statement building off of yours based on my experience with people who don't know the difference between disinfectants and the science behind them.
Different types of disinfectants are good for different applications. Some are good for fungi and spores while not being so great against bacteria and viruses and vice versa. You can actually see that in the studies showed.

The point about ethanol is for people who somehow think their 40% Smirnoff is going to do the trick.
Concentrations are going to be what you can get at the store, temp is going to be your house environment, what is in our control most is duration.
Isopropyl alcohol evaporates very quickly even in somewhat chilly temps, keep the surface wet for the full min.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366

BBC has a useful chart (near the bottom) of how bad this might get, assuming health services don't overload, basically only 20% will get seriously ill, only 6% will become critical and only 1-2% will die. Those numbers are not great but they're far below the figures for diseases like SARS or Ebola and surviveability goes up substantially for anyone under 80, then under 70 and again under 60. In the West this will likely hit our elderly population hard, especially those living in care-homes with other old people who will also catch and transmit the disease.

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that

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We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

- not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

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The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.

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Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name

...The point about ethanol is for people who somehow think their 40% Smirnoff is going to do the trick...

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I think part of the problem with this substance is that they are relying on ingestion...

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Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan

We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.



The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.

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So you think I do remember SARS, then?

It's like the flu, the infection rate is high because it's not that dangerous.

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Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name

If you are under 40 the chance of dying is much slimmer.
The 5 deaths in Washington state are from elderly and compromised individuals.

What we should be discussing is how we respond to the growing number of epidemics which will without a doubt continue to arise.
The global population is aging and will be more susceptible to these outbreaks over time. Last time I checked only 3% of American workers work remote/from home.

How do we restructure our work and government institutions to prevent an even more dangerous virus from spreading without having to resort to large scale quarantine and a halt on production.

I'll admit I bought into the fear a little bit and just stocked up on about a month of canned goods. But I am not afraid of dying from the virus, more afraid of that loss of production.

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Basically, we expand healthcare capacity to cope - we've been cutting back on it for too long - like everything else.

We also stop buying into the "global economy" with such enthusiasm.

There are far more catastrophic diseases like Ash Dieback currently raging through Europe.

Status report from South Korea:

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Hospitals in South Korea’s hardest hit areas were scrambling to accommodate the surge in new patients.

In Daegu, 2,300 people were waiting to be admitted to hospitals and temporary medical facilities, Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said. A 100-bed military hospital that had been handling many of the most serious cases was due to have 200 additional beds available by Thursday, he added.

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Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.


On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

Got to admit, my upcoming holiday might end up cancelled/railroaded because the main attractions are barring people from 'affected countries' which kind of spoils the whole point of going to those places.

But there is a discussion about there being two strains of the virus. One is the aggressive form and the other is the milder. It seems the aggressive one is the one dying out.

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Originally Posted by Viking

Status report from South Korea:



Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.


On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

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Given the USA generally has expensive hospitals and no safety net for ill people, I think you'll get a massive problem with isolating people since many can't afford the time off.

~:smoking:

The Telegraph is reporting that there are now two distinct strains of the virus, S and L - L is newer, more infectious and more agreesive (no word yet on if it's more deadly) where S is milder. You can catch both, which explains this "reinfection" - these people are actually catching two diseases.

Watch this clip of Trump briefed on the coronavirus, then watch the first two minutes of this video.


And all these people have always blown and always will.

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Historian Kevin Kruse points out that after Jonas Salk developed the polio vaccine, Democrats proposed distributing it for free to every child under 19. Over email, Kruse writes that Oveta Culp Hobby, a Texas millionaire and Dwight D. Eisenhower’s secretary of health, education, and welfare, fought back, calling free distribution “socialized medicine by the back door.”

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Originally Posted by Viking

Status report from South Korea:

Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.

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I'm interested to hear how North Korea is handling things. Will the population be evacuated en masse to a network of tunnels and bunkers? [Props to whoever gets the reference]

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On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

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The contemporary parlance is "big yikes."

In my city, the government has contingency plans for prison labor to dig mass graves for up to 51,000 corpses. I'm sure PVC appreciates these moments when nothing is new under the sun. :creep:

The Pharma executives - especially knowing their audience - really didn't help themselves by mentioning first in man when they were asked about time to deploy. Yes, it's a complex area and they're mainly used to dealing with other highly trained individuals. But they surely know when they are faced with Donnie Dumbo to Dumb It Down. A LOT. Start with the "it'll probably take over a year" and then perhaps mention some of the initial steps required. Not that the Donald cares of course.

But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked.

~:smoking: