I believe their reffering to Bethesda Maryland. ~;)Quote:
WooHoo, the Welsh win.
(Bethesda is a village in Wales)
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I believe their reffering to Bethesda Maryland. ~;)Quote:
WooHoo, the Welsh win.
(Bethesda is a village in Wales)
nah, it's Wales.
After all our language is known as "the language of heaven": evidence that God's on our side, we win.
YAY!
(I just like the idea of a small slate quarrying settlement in Wales winning if there were a nuclear war, don't bring reality to my attention)
China has already won....
All mostly sceptical rubbish. The Chinese enonomy is likely to crash soon due to over-growth.
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Originally Posted by derF
Dude, Economies grow for 4-5% and they overheat ( if thats what you mean by ' overgrowth' cause i still havent seen a country complaining about growing ) and then there is inflation and all that...however this happens fast...within a year or two, no more...
...Part of the Chinese economic miracle is that they manage to run on 9% ( official ) and 12-13% ( unofficial ) growth rates for more than a decade now and they manage to keep their economy from overheating or slowing down.
You cant just claim something like that without looking at the data first...
How many Raptors do you currently have? 5? 10? ~;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Gelatinous Cube
And it´s pretty good to know that some of you don´t have a key to fire nukes. Have you ever heard about fallout? Throwing some ICBMs on China could contaminate the whole world... ~:handball:
Ignoring the fact that a) China's entire economy relies on trade with the US, and b) any neighbours to China aren't going to miss the opportunity to annex part of China whilst it gets slaughtered by the US.
They don't have to. The pilots and crews will be killed off before the war starts. They only smuggle in a few hundred thousands "illegal workers" and start the executions. I don't think they have any problems with you flying the US figthers..... ~;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Gelatinous Cube
Is this what you call persecution complex?
China is growing and will propably keep on growing. They will be the biggest economy and the biggest military power. They do not have to attack the US to reach this goal. Once they are number one Taiwan will be theirs again.
The question is how will the West, how will the US react? I think if China comes close the US will try to start an arms race. If they feel the economic problems they will look for a military solution. Not a direct attack, but trying to cut off resources ... .
The article shows how much some Americans are already unsettled.
There is an artivcle in Newsweek (May 9th, 2005). They say that China's military budget rises by 10 percent per year. 'But it is still spending a fraction of what America does, at most 10 percent of the Pentagon's annual bill.'
I think China is rapidly modernizing its military,but not for a war against US.Chinas military equipment is mostly pretty much from 70`s.Ofcourse they are trying to modernize it.
The problem with US China relations is Taiwan.I dont believe that China´s ultimate goal is somekind of Crusade against US.Their purpose is to conguer back what they consider the rebellious province of Taiwan.So if the China and US want to avoid an war over Taiwan,they should really sit down and start negotiating somekind of compromise in that matter.I dont believe that an conflict between them is inevitable. :bow:
Raptor Shmaptor! Even if we took on China's air force with our conventional fleet of F-14s, F-15s, F-16s and F/A-18s we'd mop the floor with them. I'll go one step further and say that even if China's entire air force was comprised entirely of state of the art post-Cold War Russian aerospace technology our pilots, training and tactics would ulitmately prove superior. As Chuck Yeager said during the Korean War, "It's the man, not the machine." In Korea the Mig-15 compared favorably to the F-86 and was superior in terms of firepower, speed and climbing ability. Both aircraft were extremely capable fighters. And yet the butcher's bill at war's end saw the F-86's kill ratio around 10-1!Quote:
Originally Posted by Gelatinous Cube
Quote:
Originally Posted by BDC
Nope, not even close...the US just want to think of it this way. China is an FDI recipient from all around the world...
...and btw...if 2 countries are tied in such a trade dependence then its not that ones economy depends on the other, they are mutually dependent.
AND CAN WE STOP THIS 'ATTACK CHINA' NONSENCE PLEASE?
THANK YOU!
Do China have any reason to feel threatened by US ? Is there any US plans to invade China ? Of course not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Franconicus
So why do China build up their armed forces ? With no threat ahead of them, what do they need their troops for ?
Do you see the logic here ?
~:grouphug:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gelatinous Cube
I am rather curious about what the rest of the West would do if China started to misbehave.
I know what too many people would want (I’ll give you a hint, it starts with liberals and ends with the following), let me see if this rings a bell:
1935 Germany repudiates the treaty of Versailles and begins to re-arm (…humm…)
1936 Germany expands into the Rhineland, while the French and British do nothing (…Taiwan?)
1938 Germany waltzes into Vienna. The west sits (Korea?)
1938 Germany stars interfering Czechoslovakia and we get ‘Peace in our time’. Ain’t it grand!
1939 Germany marches into Czechoslovakia…(SW Asia?)
September 1st, 1939…I don’t really think I need to elaborate on that one do I?
I don’t know about you guys…but there is no way China would ever start a war! I mean…that would mean the US would have to blockade them and then…well…how on earth would they ever get their Champagne, or new Simpsons’s episodes or …whatever it is Britain exports… Geesh…it is a good thing we have our liberals to tell us that the alligator…erm…China…is just hungry for a little while. So long as we keep feeding him, I’m sure he won’t eat me!
Right…?
Azi
Sorry buddy...as much as I don't like China...they have managed to get us by the short hairs.
Like the money situation...aren't we in debt to them?
Azi
Wow, some of you guys are really paranoid... as though the Chinese were already poised to come into your houses at night en masse and wreck up the place......
:bow:
To be honest, I don't understand the money thing myself. But yes...as soon as China realizes it has no course short of nukes around the USN and USAF...we'll see...we'll see ~;)
All kidding aside, China does scare me. But Roark, you are a heckuva lot closer than I am!
Azi
Haha... Perhaps.
Oh, you meant this guy -----> ~:eek:
He appears to be trying to hypnotise me...
Yup yup...just ignore the snake sitting the living room...it is just there because it wants to enjoy the TV. It has no desires to eat anything you have. Such as a pet...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/china_usa...NlYwMlJVRPUCUl
And may I be so bold as to throw the bull**** flag on this one?
Meh...Germany's rearmament in the 30s did not lead to anything bad did it?Quote:
"The Chinese government attaches great importance to IPR (intellectual property rights) protection and will step up measures in this regard," he [State Councillor Tang] said.
Azi
China would never do anything. Japan would greet them with open arms, a handshake and a new model of electronic goods to buy if China would only finally unite with its wayward rebellious province of Taiwan. ~:cool:
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Originally Posted by rasoforos
There was no reason to expect China couldn't grow like this. They had to make up for the Cultural Revolution and decades of its aftermath. In otherwords, the bar was so low that introducing some capitalistic reforms was guarranteed to be stunningly successful. It's a lot more impressive to grow from 1 to 100 than from 10 to 100, but in both instances the end result is the same: 100.
Growth rate numbers mean little, as long as there is continuing demand. And there is great demand for access to China's vast CHEAP labor pool and enormous population. It isn't inexhaustible, and that labor is eventually going to become more expensive.
Will a big bubble and big recession happen? Probably, but there must be some structural reasons for it, not just growth rate greater than X for Y years. (I have no idea when either.) Bubbles and collapses happen when the expectations far exceed the future demand. I've not been paying close attention to economists predicting doom and gloom for the Chinese economy--the articles I've read so far have not been compelling. Some analyst out there will be the canary and give the warning...and probably a bond analyst, and few will pay him/her much heed until they are looking back for clues later to what went wrong.
Nope. I'm fairly safe saying that America is in no debt to any country other than to itself, our 3 Trillion Dollar Deficit isn't borrowed from other countries, it's borrowed from us! So when the Government decides it needs an SDI system they don't ask China for the money! They just reach into our own pockets and take it, in the form of back taxes and revenue. And Because we don't have enough money to pay for it they sort of give us a shoddy IOU like a Mafia drug dealer would give his landlord, of course we're pissed, but we know there is nothing that we can do about it. The Clinton administration did however return the favor in the 90s, and then the Bush adminstration put us as far back in debt as if a culmination of every American Presidency were put together and multiplied by three.Quote:
Originally Posted by Azi Tohak
That is not correct. The deficit is over $7.7 trillion and will soon hit $8 trillion. $4.6 trillion of the debt is in treasury securities. These are held by many, including foreign nations, corporations, etc. So this debt is very real. The "intergovernmental transfers" (such as dipping into the SS funds) is the additional $3.1 trillion. As such it is less "real." It is equivalent to a company underfunding a pension fund...except with the govt there is no safety net for the pensioners if it fails.
Really the debt is not to ourselves, but borrowing from our children and grandchildren. It is theft from the younger generations. Each generation sticks it to the one below, damned irresponsible. So much for seniors lecturing kids about financial responsibility, eh?
True. If we take Sollow growth model, and also relevant sigma convergence theories and data, into account then china is indeed far away from its equilibrium and thus grow fast.Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Harvest
However, such high and consistent growth is rather miraculous. There are over a hundred nations which are way below their potential equilibrium and they do not grow adequately to support either Sollow or convergence. The reason is almost always bad economic management.
My point is that China has managed to realise its potential to grow and has done so very succesfully and in a highly consistent and organised way. Due to its natural resources and population this has been a herculean task and they did damn well. Most countries never do.
As a result I believe they will continue doing so unless something really unexpected happens.
True, growth rates on their own mean little. But when a country doubles in economy every 5-6 years then its a special case.Quote:
Growth rate numbers mean little, as long as there is continuing demand. And there is great demand for access to China's vast CHEAP labor pool and enormous population. It isn't inexhaustible, and that labor is eventually going to become more expensive.
As you said China has hordes of cheap labour force that gave it an initial competitive advantage. But lets not fool ourselves, China is take really good measures to make sure the rising income and wage levels will not affect its growth and future economic robustness.
First of all is growing in 3 different layers. East is highly industrial and is rapidly becoming a 3rd sector financial and services centre. The central zone is industrialising and finally the west is still underdeveloped and a source of cheap labour ( the average income is about 10 times smaller in the west than in the east). This means that:
a) they will have sufficient cheap labour for the decades to come
b) they are becoming less and less dependent on cheap labour. Through FDI they have accumulated vast technological knowledge and process know-how, they have developed strong services sectors and financial centres that have overshadowed european and american ones ( Shanghai for example ).
So yes, China USED TO , produce cheap labour goods and to a large extend it still does. But it now also produces high-tech goods and provides a vast array of financial services at a very competitive way. When China reaches its growth potential, it will do show as a very technologically develop country.
In conclusion, the structure of the Chinese regime has allowed them to design and realise very-long-term plans and they will face minimal structural problem as their economy passed from rural to industrialised to services based.
I am an economist who has specialised in International Economics actually ~DQuote:
Will a big bubble and big recession happen? Probably, but there must be some structural reasons for it, not just growth rate greater than X for Y years. (I have no idea when either.) Bubbles and collapses happen when the expectations far exceed the future demand. I've not been paying close attention to economists predicting doom and gloom for the Chinese economy--the articles I've read so far have not been compelling. Some analyst out there will be the canary and give the warning...and probably a bond analyst, and few will pay him/her much heed until they are looking back for clues later to what went wrong.
Of course bubbles and collapses happen and more often than not noone has predicted the external shock that causes a collapse untill its too late. So noone will come and give you a 100% chance that something will or will not happen. Just take a look at growth expectations and you ll see that economists get the wrong more often than BBC get the weather wrong :)
However, atm you will not find many independent and unbiased economists you will predict doom for China. Chinese economists havent made many mistakes for the past decade or so and frankly its very dificult to stagnate an economy thats its growing at a consistant 9-12% ( unlike an economy that grows at this percentage for only a year or two...then you almost always expect a negative growth correction ). Moreover if they keep protecting their economy from overheating as well as they do ( and U.S economists should take some lessons here...) they will do just fine.
I wont stake my name into an oppinion that the Chinese economy might not collapse, any economy can collapse. But I wouldnt bet on it.
P.S: Has anyone noticed how many Chinese men and women study Economics and Business in the UK at the moment? While I was studying for my masters half of the students were chinese, they are really preparing their people for the future.
Note to conservative U.S guys looking for the next 'bad guy' : Chinese people a) They are humans like you and me, not some sort of demon
b) They are very polite kind and friendly
c) Believe it or not...they do not talk about war all day, nor do they talk about attacking the US and turning it communist...maybe some conservatives should do the same for a change
P.S 2: What scares me is that IF China succeeds in becoming a Developed country then it will be the only country who used communism to achieve so. In essence a new form or communism and for a change a SUCCESFULL one. Proletariate dictatoship that allows the development of long-term plans of gradual development and free-market-conditions untill a developed free market economy emerges. Lets face it, it will change a lot of textbooks and it will affect the people's idea on how to get non-developing-economies into the right track.
It will also mean, us , economically right wing people, will have to say we were wrong for the first time. :bow: Time will tell
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Originally Posted by Red Harvest
I have to agree to this. People shouldnt forget that budget and trade deficits are ran at a cost. Noone seems to care about how suicidical US economic policy has been and how the country becomes indebted against foreign countries and institutions. It will come back like a boomerang if nothing is done to correct the problem.
I sometimes think how irrational it is that the current U.S administration is currently financing wars with money it is constantly borrowing from foreign countries ( which on their vast majority oppose the waR)...thats world economics for you :charge:
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Originally Posted by Gelatinous Cube
Here we are, talking about attacking them because they are growing and we come and accuse them for racism? :dizzy2:
Yes they are not angels, but they are people like you and me, and we are not angels either. :)
Whoopee! Thank you Red Harvest. I don't know enough about the money situation to articulate my fears. It is the bonds thing that has me worried.
But rasoforos
You could say the same thing about us Midwesterners (well, reverse #3). But we are not rampant racists like they are, no matter what you might have heard on the BBC. Our chinese grad student is not exactly well liked (the vast majority of our grad students are Taiwanese or Indian) but he is the most racist person I have ever met. Far more so than 'Billy-Bob' the Kansas hick. Maybe he is just a bad apple, but I have assurances, from him, his friends and family back home think the same things.Quote:
Note to conservative U.S guys looking for the next 'bad guy' : Chinese people a) They are humans like you and me, not some sort of demon
b) They are very polite kind and friendly
c) Believe it or not...they do not talk about war all day, nor do they talk about attacking the US and turning it communist...maybe some conservatives should do the same for a change
Azi
A few years ago there were riots in China because some black people were allowed to study there.
and 20 years ago there were some riots in the us as well, and 50 years ago some 6 mio jews had a shower...
racism exist everywhere, we can only try to be tolerant and tell people they are wrong