Mafia VI: Night of the Day of the Dawn of the Return of the Mafia [Concluded]

Kommodus, you've already posted your analyses of me, Andres, CountArach, Crazed Rabbit and Sasaki. Would it be unreasonable to ask you for your analyses of the remaining players? I'm particularly interested in Reenk and yourself. Reenk because he's consistently targeted a single player in the game and lurked a bit, much like his pattern in M5 where he was scum. You because you've already noted that we shouldn't just take your word for granted, so giving your own analysis of yourself would let us see if you're missing anything out. I'd also like the other 4 players named, if they want to spare the time, to explain Kommodus' analyses of them.

Ungh. We villagers don't seem to be doing very well. I'll work on the requested analysis later on this evening, but I'm afraid that once again I don't have as much time as I'd like to devote to it... I'm sorry if this seems half-hearted. In all honesty, it is. :shame:

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

Kommodus, you've already posted your analyses of me, Andres, CountArach, Crazed Rabbit and Sasaki. Would it be unreasonable to ask you for your analyses of the remaining players? I'm particularly interested in Reenk and yourself. Reenk because he's consistently targeted a single player in the game and lurked a bit, much like his pattern in M5 where he was scum. You because you've already noted that we shouldn't just take your word for granted, so giving your own analysis of yourself would let us see if you're missing anything out. I'd also like the other 4 players named, if they want to spare the time, to explain Kommodus' analyses of them.

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I missed one round of voting in this game, though I did post that round. Hardly qualifies as "lurking". In Mafia V, I never targeted a single player. I was on another player each round. Please, when you're going to draw suspicion on people, come with real facts...

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Originally Posted by Reenk Roink

I missed one round of voting in this game, though I did post that round. Hardly qualifies as "lurking". In Mafia V, I never targeted a single player. I was on another player each round. Please, when you're going to draw suspicion on people, come with real facts...

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I seem to recall Disco in Mafia IV :rolleyes: Though that got him killed.

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Originally Posted by Reenk Roink

I missed one round of voting in this game, though I did post that round. Hardly qualifies as "lurking". In Mafia V, I never targeted a single player. I was on another player each round. Please, when you're going to draw suspicion on people, come with real facts...

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There is the possibility, which you've denied, of staying out of the way after the person who voted you was killed - that was what Sigurd did with effect in the live Mafia game he played, the reasoning being to let things quieten down before making an appearance again. About targeting a single person - I recall voting for you in round 1 of M5 specifically because you kept abstaining courteously (in a continuation from your other games), a convenient way of minimising your footprint. I noted that wasn't much different from the Disco vote, except for the better disguise. I'll admit that is by no means conclusive evidence, which is why I want an analysis from Kommodus - Sasaki and Rabbit are much more obvious candidates, which anyone with half a brain can investigate for himself.

My only reservation about Rabbit is that GH hinted he was on the verge of being wogged last night, when Lucjan said he wanted to join the game. Does this mean he is not mafia? Based on normal mafia activity, but his behaviour can also be explained as an experienced player holding his nerve in a deliberate lurking strategy (like AtPG in Midgard), while doing the bare minimum to avoid GH's wrath. At the very least, I'd like his name to be considered and discussed, preferably with Rabbit himself joining the discussion.

It seems Reenk has been after Sasaki for quite a while, and now others are joining in.

Truth be told, it's always really difficult to tell the innocence of Sasaki.

Right now I'm mostly suspicious of CountArach, Sasaki, and Andres.

I'm going to Vote:CountArach because of his voting patterns and a feeling I have about him.

As for my lower than normal activity - I had two exams last week and I've got another on Thursday. Career fair tomorrow - I'm going for a sweet summer internship. So I'm a bit busy.

CR

As a heads-up to everyone, this session will be extra long, ending on Tuesday sometime around 4:00 PM GMT-5.

I guess since Sasaki decided to stop posting he's of no great help to us anymore it would seem. I won't vote him though cause I don't think he's guilty.

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I'm going to Vote:CountArach because of his voting patterns and a feeling I have about him.

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Hmmm, voting people on a "feeling" just doesn't seem right to me.

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Originally Posted by CountArach

Hmmm, voting people on a "feeling" just doesn't seem right to me.

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And your reasoning was so much better I presume?

Ok, here are the results of a hasty analysis for all remaining players.

Kagemusha

Activity level down. Post length averages about 150 characters; normally above 300. Averaging 2592 minutes between posts, which is well above normal. Activity level was also low in Mafia I when guilty, but relevance of that game is questionable.

Sasaki Kojiro

Difficult player for Holmes to read. Activity levels have varied throughout his many games; this time everything looked normal until his recent absence. Has been jumping in a little quicker than usual – average delay is 90 minutes, when it is normally over 200 minutes.

Stig

Not many games to compare. Activity levels similar to Midgard Saga; posting is a bit less frequent (average 611 minutes between posts compared to 350 previously). Post length also down a bit; 165 character average compared to about 200 baseline.

Ichigo

Statistics look very normal. Post length, as usual, averages about 200 characters. Posting interval varies but looks very close to baseline. His activity level normally appears to drop when guilty.

Pannonian

Average post length close to baseline of about 600 characters; up only slightly. Average posting interval also close to recent baseline (from Capo), which is 300-400 minutes. Jumps in much more quickly than usual – posting delay is 141 minutes compared to a baseline of 600-800 minutes. Has explained this to my satisfaction.

Crazed Rabbit

Activity level down considerably. Average post length slightly higher than usual, but not enough to raise suspicions. Statistics look very close to those set in Interficio, except for posting interval, which is very high. Semi-lurking, which is unusual. Explanation desired.

Reenk Roink

Activity level close to baseline set in games when innocent. His activity level normally goes up notably when guilty. Has never been one of my top suspects in this game.

CountArach

Post length down (90 characters compared to baseline of 126-215 in previous games). Somewhat less frequent posting also – average interval is 1122 minutes compared to 500-700 in previous games. I was suspicious of him near the beginning of the game for some reason.

ByzantineKnight

Behavior varies from game to game, but nothing jumps out numerically. Mostly short, relatively infrequent posts; comparative activity level up slightly (as compared with other players). No real indication of guilt.

AndresTheCunning

Only a few games to compare. In Capo, average post length was 722 characters, average interval was 648 minutes, average delay was 1048 minutes. In Midgard Saga, average post length was 569 characters, average interval was 321 minutes, average delay was 533 minutes. Current activity level much closer to Capo, with an average post length of 937 characters, an average interval of 994 minutes, and an average delay of 1084 minutes. Activity suggests less frequent but more well-thought-out posts. Very likely to have a role.

Dutch_guy

Statistics look very normal. Activity level typically low, both in post length and frequency. If he’s guilty he’s doing a tremendous job of looking normal.

Kommodus

Posting frequency notably lower, while average post length is a bit higher (940 characters) than normal (500-900 characters). Activity level was up in Graffiti Mafia when guilty. Has claimed RL to explain absence.

Ugh, I really need to go to bed.

Vote: AndresTheCunning

I think it would be a good time for the detective to reveal if he is still alive. As for now Kage explained his votes as RL, and if he's lieing well then shame on him. I'll go with Kommo on this one. Andres does seem to be acting differently from Midgard iirc.

Unvote:Kage
Vote:Andres

Also I think BK needs to speak up.

I'll go with Kommodus on this one as well. He seems to know what he is doing.

Unvote: Sasaki
Vote: AndrestheCunning

Not again :wall:

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Originally Posted by Kommodus

Only a few games to compare. In Capo, average post length was 722 characters, average interval was 648 minutes, average delay was 1048 minutes. In Midgard Saga, average post length was 569 characters, average interval was 321 minutes, average delay was 533 minutes. Current activity level much closer to Capo, with an average post length of 937 characters, an average interval of 994 minutes, and an average delay of 1084 minutes. Activity suggests less frequent but more well-thought-out posts. Very likely to have a role.

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So, you only have two games to compare to. Not very much to go on, eh? I post less frequent indeed. On purpose. Why? Because I hated the high amount of posts in the last two big mafia games. I am well aware I was one of the causes of that. So I try to post less. Add to that I have been absent several times, like I stated before. So, less opportunities to log in and post. That's another reason why I have less posts, but with more text. Check the Midgard Saga: I got lynched without posting once to defend myself because of real life.

And now I get this? Making well thought posts makes one look more suspicious :inquisitive: ? Would you prefer me to make some short, rubbish posts, where I vote for someone without giving any good reason? That would make me look less guilty?

Sorry Kommodus. This just seems very weird. I don't believe in your system. You deceived it once yourself + if I understood one of Seamus last posts correctly, it also failed at least once in a previous game. Whether you are guilty yourself or, without realising it, you are offering the mafia a nice opportunity to get a townie lynched, hiding behind your system.

Well, there are no role pm's in this game, so I can only question your system, point out the dangers of it and declare that I am innocent. Check the thread. I've made well thought posts (but apparently, that seems to be suspicious ~:confused: ), trying to detect who acts suspicious and voting accordingly. I am not the detective, so there's not much to reveal to 'prove' my innocence.

Now, for instance, I don't like how CA voted. He accepts the system without critisizing or asking questons, putting a third vote on an innocent townie:

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Originally Posted by CountArach

I'll go with Kommodus on this one as well. He seems to know what he is doing.

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Just popping up and voting for someone who is likely to get lynched, not giving any good reasons of his own :inquisitive: :stupido2: Ah, but I see, he didn't make a well thought post. So he must be innocent !

But for now, I'll stick to my vote for Sasaki however, since I want him to talk in the thread. I want useful townies to participate.

You can't compare with 2 games, and you can't compare post length and interval, how about being busier now then back then.

Unvote: Reenk Roink
Vote: Kommodus

No one seems guilty except Sasaki (as usual)...

Vote: Abstain

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Originally Posted by ByzantineKnight

No one seems guilty except Sasaki (as usual)...

Vote: Abstain

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And why don't you vote for someone who looks guilty in your opinion? :inquisitive:

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Originally Posted by Kommodus

Stig

Not many games to compare. Activity levels similar to Midgard Saga; posting is a bit less frequent (average 611 minutes between posts compared to 350 previously). Post length also down a bit; 165 character average compared to about 200 baseline.

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Stig was Jotun in Midgard :inquisitive:

So, Sasaki gets some townies lynched. Now he seems to withdraw from the thread, starting to lurk and you, Kommodus, pop up with a lenghty list of suspects and the towns' attention is drawn away from Sasaki's sudden silence (which is odd, since he doesn't restrict himself from posting in other threads). And Sasaki is difficult to analyse by your new system. How convenient.

On a side note, since your system has already failed once and you have used it once to deceive the town and obtain a mafia victory, I think it is reasonable to question it. So, do you have other reasons to suspect the main suspects on your list, besides the results of your program?

Let Kommo also compare me here with how I did in Capo till I got killed untill you say something about me.

And I think Andres has a very valid point here:

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So, Sasaki gets some townies lynched. Now he seems to withdraw from the thread, starting to lurk and you, Kommodus, pop up with a lenghty list of suspects and the towns' attention is drawn away from Sasaki's sudden silence (which is odd, since he doesn't restrict himself from posting in other threads). And Sasaki is difficult to analyse by your new system. How convenient.

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But I'm keeping it at Kommo for now, but if Sasaki posts in other threads again, but ignores this I will change my vote.

Well, to be fair to Kommo, Sasaki is the best at behaving the same regardless of role. He typically posts more than anyone else on the thread by a large margin (except for ichigo). Kommo's system is designed to twig on discrepancies in style.

The limitations are that a style change is often, but not always, a sign of an active role. Sometimes its just a player taking his game to a new level or a relatively new player still developing their style.

Sasaki's absence in this thread is unusual (is he pissed off at the gameroom?).

Kommo's analysis, at least with this last post, is trending more toward the substantive of a townie Kommodus and away from the "keep it nebulous" version he used when in a scum role.

Andres, you are taking this whole thing far too seriously (and personally). I've admitted over and over again that my system is not foolproof, that it can be deceived, etc. But you are attacking my conclusions based on faulty logic of your own... :inquisitive:

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Originally Posted by AndresTheCunning

So, you only have two games to compare to. Not very much to go on, eh?

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No, but ya gotta start somewhere...

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Originally Posted by AndresTheCunning

I post less frequent indeed. On purpose. Why? Because I hated the high amount of posts in the last two big mafia games. I am well aware I was one of the causes of that. So I try to post less. Add to that I have been absent several times, like I stated before. So, less opportunities to log in and post. That's another reason why I have less posts, but with more text. Check the Midgard Saga: I got lynched without posting once to defend myself because of real life.

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Everyone will have an explanation for changes in their posting style. Some explanations will be valid; others not so much. You've been twigged by my system because your style has changed; simple as that.

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Originally Posted by AndresTheCunning

And now I get this? Making well thought posts makes one look more suspicious :inquisitive: ? Would you prefer me to make some short, rubbish posts, where I vote for someone without giving any good reason? That would make me look less guilty?

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Sigh... Andres, there are psychological factors to consider here. The fact that you are suspicious has nothing to do directly with the fact that you are making well-thought-out posts, as you keep asserting. Is this a misunderstanding on your part, or are you trying to obfuscate?

Your behavior suggests that you are taking the game more seriously and putting more thought into it than usual. That's why you look guilty - because that's what a mafioso would do. Don't patronize me; I've been playing this game for a long time and I have some idea of what to look for.

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Originally Posted by AndresTheCunning

Sorry Kommodus. This just seems very weird. I don't believe in your system. You deceived it once yourself + if I understood one of Seamus last posts correctly, it also failed at least once in a previous game.

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Well, my system has failed before, but it's been right 3/4 times. And I haven't deceived Holmes before - the system I deceived was my first one, which was far more simplistic.

Now once again, I might be wrong. There's a fair chance of it, in fact - I really don't have a good feeling about this game; I think the mafia are doing a very good job of staying hidden. And if you are, in fact, an innocent player who's been twigged by my system, I understand why you don't believe in it. But you are IMO the best candidate for lynching at this point.

You're right - CountArach is suspicious for his own reasons. So are lots of other players, including me. But I'm not hiding behind my system - I'm using the best tools at my disposal to investigate. Everyone else should do the same.

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Kommo's analysis, at least with this last post, is trending more toward the substantive of a townie Kommodus and away from the "keep it nebulous" version he used when in a scum role.

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:laugh4: :laugh4: :laugh4:

Check out my behavior in Mafia IV and Mafia V. It doesn't get much more nebulous than that - I never posted any sort of substantive analysis in either game! Graffiti Mafia was the first game in which I made any sort of pretense at such a thing!

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Originally Posted by Kommodus

Andres, you are taking this whole thing far too seriously (and personally). I've admitted over and over again that my system is not foolproof, that it can be deceived, etc.

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You did so indeed :bow:

But it's very frustrating to get lynched when you are innocent

*Sigh*

These games carry me away sometimes, making me post in a style you won't see elsewhere from me at the Org. Maybe I take these games too serious in general :shame:

If one or several of my posts insulted you or the effort you put in developping your program 'holmes', I hereby apologize. :sorry:

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Originally Posted by Seamus

Sasaki's absence in this thread is unusual (is he pissed off at the gameroom?)

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Now, as for Sasaki, if he would be pissed of at the gameroom and doesn't want to post anymore in a big mafia game, he would have informed GH about that decision and he would have asked to WoG him or to write up his suicide in game.

C'mon Sasaki, talk :whip:

I'll even the scores to give time for Andres and Sasaki to argue their cases.

Unvote: Crazed Rabbit
Vote: Sasaki Kojiro

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Tally as of post #713

Sasaki (3) - Andres #681, Reenk #690, Pannonian #713
CountArach (1) - Rabbit #696
Andres (3) - Kommodus #701, Ichigo #702, CountArach #703
Kommodus (1) - Stig #705

Abstain (3) - Kagemusha #682, Dutch Guy #685, ByzKnight #706
Not voted (1) - Sasaki

Sorry Pan, but I'm going to untie it, Sasaki posted here in the Gameroom an hour ago, but ignored this thread.

Unvote: Kommodus
Vote: Sasaki

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Originally Posted by Stig

Sorry Pan, but I'm going to untie it, Sasaki posted here in the Gameroom an hour ago, but ignored this thread.

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And he posted in the watchtower and backroom a mere thirty minutes ago, yet again ignoring this thread - even though his life is in the balance.

What's going on here, not like Sasaki at all - both with role and role-less. :dizzy2:

:balloon2:

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Originally Posted by AndresTheCunning

You did so indeed :bow:

But it's very frustrating to get lynched when you are innocent

*Sigh*

These games carry me away sometimes, making me post in a style you won't see elsewhere from me at the Org. Maybe I take these games too serious in general :shame:

If one or several of my posts insulted you or the effort you put in developping your program 'holmes', I hereby apologize. :sorry:

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Ok, no worries then, bro. I know it can be frustrating to get lynched as an innocent townsperson. It's happened to me on quite a few occasions! :sweatdrop: And I freely admit that I don't exactly have a great feeling about my analysis or my earlier list of suspects. At this point anyone could be mafia.

Anyway, Sasaki's continued absence certainly is puzzling. I don't know what to make of it - it's definitely not like him. :inquisitive:

Grist for the mill:

Votes lodged against subsequent murderees (innocents):

Crazed Rabbit: Redleg (R1)

Ichigo: Redleg (R2)

Sasaki Kojiro: Orb (R1)


Remember, round one is the only round where mafia sorta feel safe.

I think CR is the clearest choice at the moment.

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Originally Posted by Stig

Sorry Pan, but I'm going to untie it, Sasaki posted here in the Gameroom an hour ago, but ignored this thread.

Unvote: Kommodus
Vote: Sasaki

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I think Sasaki's pissed, and the reason why is the way RR says his method's hurt the town at least that's my opnion it could be something else though. Hopefully Pannonian will come back and unvote Sasaki so we can have a tie.

Andres seems to be trying to pawn suspicion off on other players.

Voting over.

Stand by for the execution.