Quote:
Political scientists Amir Fairdosi and Jon Ragowski found that black Democratic candidates significantly increase turnout of black voters across the ideological spectrum — the candidate’s presence alone is associated with a 5.4 percent increase in turnout probability. Numerous studies, such as one from University of North Carolina professor Christopher Clark and another from Yale University economist Ebonya Washington, show that state black executive and legislative candidates mobilize disengaged black voters, making them 22 percent more likely to vote and raise turnout 2.3 percentage points for every black congressional or gubernatorial Democrat on the ballot.
Recent elections, including 2018, when Gillum and Abrams ran, suggest similar outcomes. Black voter participation rates in presidential elections were at historic highs in 2008 and 2012, when Obama was at the top of the ticket. Further, black female candidates receive even higher levels of support from black women, an especially important bloc given the outsize role of black women in electoral organizing, participation and Democratic support.
The achievable turnout advantage offered by a black running mate may only be on the margins, but that is often where elections are won. Though Clinton received close to 3 million more votes in 2016, Trump’s victory was decided as a result of less than 80,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In these states, the black population centers of Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee are all represented by black legislators.
