Mafia V: The Family Strikes Back [Concluded]

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Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

Four times? Are you counting abstaining as voting for the same person?

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The voting records' there...

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Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

You insult my intelligence if you think I would play so foolishly. You cite a few rare instances of us posting near the same time as guilt. Do you think I'm some noob who would post so near to a mafia partner?

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It's not my intention to insult intelligence. It's my intention to snuff out Mafia. There is a clear pattern here.

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Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

If seamus is one of two mafia left and we don't kill him, we lose. We don't really have one more round to get him if we lynch Xiahou - you insist he and I are a team and will urge my lynching if Xiahou gets lynched and I'm still alive. With your plan the town loses. It's pretty clear both Seamus and Xiahou aren't mafia, so lynching both of them gives mafia the win.

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One, I have no evidence of Seamus' partner. If Seamus is mafia, his partner is:

1) Dead
2) Alive

2 is a tough one, because there is no lead as to who it could be. The partner has done an excellent job of not being noticed with Seamus, and at this stage of the game, that's unlikely.

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Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

It's pretty clear both Seamus and Xiahou aren't mafia, so lynching both of them gives mafia the win.

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Here's the problem, I think Seamus or CR/Xiahou are the Mafia. I happen to think that latter is more likely, and their situation is more dangerous. It's odd that you would maintain your vote on Seamus while not thinking that he is a Mafia though... :inquisitive:

Awesome! The late-game explosion of discussion has arrived. :idea2:

Anyway, with regards to Sasaki's strategy, it may be a bit annoying but it does work. By posting and accusing a lot, Sasaki creates discussion, which ample proof has shown to be beneficial to the town. Sure, he's wrong a lot, and he's started more than his share of witch-hunts, but what counts in the end is whether or not the mafia were caught, not how many innocents were lynched in the process.

So Reenk and Sasaki, I think you guys should back off from each other bit. Reenk, if you're really the detective, that would mean you guys are on the same team. You may have different tactics but you're working for the same goal. Eh?

Regarding Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou... hm. I've gotta admit, I'm disinclined to believe that the two mafiosi would work together in such a blatant fashion (though it is true that no one brought it up until now). It's a tough choice for sure, but I'm not going for it. Maybe I've been fooled, to my great shame and embarrassment (:shame: ), but that's my decision.

Nobody ever listened to me about anything in this game. I always had the best intentions, truly reflected on my conclusions, but I was always ignored. :no: :shame: :disappointed:

It's lonely work, this private eye stuff...

:flybye:

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Originally Posted by Reenk Roink

Nobody ever listened to me about anything in this game. I always had the best intentions, truly reflected on my conclusions, but I was always ignored. :no: :shame: :disappointed:

It's lonely work, this private eye stuff...

:flybye:

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Dont take it so seriously Reenk.~:) This game is all about arguing about theories.Theories,not people.:smash:

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Here's the problem, I think Seamus or CR/Xiahou are the Mafia. I happen to think that latter is more likely, and their situation is more dangerous. It's odd that you would maintain your vote on Seamus while not thinking that he is a Mafia though...

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I meant they are not both mafia, at the same time. Either one may be, but I believe Seamus to be more likely.

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It's not my intention to insult intelligence. It's my intention to snuff out Mafia. There is a clear pattern here.

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If I were mafia, I would do everything possible not to associate myself with the other mafioso - like I did in Mini-mafia, were noone suspected a link between me and Kage. I think the pattern you see is just a result of your bitterness that I voted to lynch you.

Crazed Rabbit

This is past arguing.

Lines of opposition have solidified and the dead scream for me to join them, certain of my guilt.

Nothing I can say/post/refer to will alter that stance, all will be reinterpreted to trumpet my guilt.

All I can say is, go back over it from the start and read it through -- I don't think my message is inconsistent, but then again, I am the one writing it, so what do I know.

^^cop out



Ignoramus Ignoramus where are yoouuuu??

Someone email Ignoramus.

Suspicious Reasons for voting:

1) Seamus has had a behavior change from past games.

2) Crazed Rabbit and Xiahou have been voting extremely similarly.

The defenses:

Both weak.

Who should be lynched this round:

Since we don't have a name for Seamus' partner yet (Sasaki and Kommodus are holding back on their suspect), it is more plausible that he is dead rather than alive, as in this late stage of the game, a partner would certainly surface (as in the Crazed Rabbit/Xiahou case). Thus, with two lynches left, it would certainly be more prudent to lynch Xiahou, and deliberate on Seamus/Crazed Rabbit next round.

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Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

I think the pattern you see is just a result of your bitterness that I voted to lynch you.

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:rolleyes:

Don't even begin to flatter yourself.

If you can show me that patterns like the one between you and Xiahou are common, that'll be enough to convince me. Problem is, you cannot...

I just realized: Kagemusha was killed last night. This means that this round will be the mafia's undoing.

You can't escape it Seamus IT'S THE CURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRSE!!!! ~:eek:

Would the mafia seriously leave killing Kage till the end for fear of the curse?

How long has this curse been around?

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Originally Posted by Craterus

Would the mafia seriously leave killing Kage till the end for fear of the curse?

How long has this curse been around?

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Ever since Kage (as a mafioso) won Mafia I, whenever he has been killed in subsequent mafia games (my games only, oddly enough), things have started to go terribly wrong for the mafia.

I noticed this after Mafia IV when Kage was executed in the first round and the next two people executed were both mafiosi.

Hmm. And this should bother a mafioso enough not to kill them until the end?

Did Seamus play in Mafia III and IV? What about Xiahou?

I'm guessing Crazed Rabbit did. I think I remember him in the first 2 mafia games.

Seamus and Xiahou did not. Rabbit did.

Here's my reasoning Craterus:
I know I am innocent, and so there cannot be a CR/Xiahou mafia. That means if Xiahou is mafia he is the only one. Whereas if Seamus is mafia, he probably has his partner left. So if Seamus is mafia, then we need to kill him this round and his partner next round. But if Xiahou is mafia, then we can execute Seamus this round and Xiahou the next and still win.

Crazed Rabbit

Why is that directed at me? I'm not leading the case against you. ~:confused: (My vendetta is against Dutch_guy. ~;p)

And, at the moment, my vote is for Xiahou.

EDIT6: Let's assume the Mafia are aware of the curse. By killing Kage, complacency has clearly set in. I thought this game was beyond the town's reach, and clearly so does the Mafia.

Don't think this actually adds anything to the discussion though.:embarassed:

Crazed Rabbit's argument is modeled after mine, but there is stretching of the syllogism present in his version.

You see, my premise is that if Seamus is the mafia, it is more likely that he is alone than not (the partner is dead). To support this premise, I pointed to the fact that we do not have any clue as to who his partner could be*, and that is odd, because in the endgame, if his partner was alive, we would likely have seen a connection (like in Xiahou and Crazed Rabbit).

Crazed Rabbit is holding that Seamus' partner is probably left. He however, gives no reason as to why that is, and the premise is weak.

*One of my sources has recently told me of a possible partner of Seamus. I hold that while certainly possible, it is not plausible, and I have been given no reasons as the why this partner was named yet.

Another thing about Crazed Rabbit's argument, is that his premises are much more dogmatic than mine. He oddly claims that if Xiahou is the mafia, then he is the only one (again, no reason given). I claimed that if Seamus was the mafia, it is more likely that Seamus is alone than not (giving reasons as to why this is).

My argument on the whole is much more believable.

By the way, I'm sure Seamus knows he's innocent as well... :rolleyes:

Craterus, I doubt the mafia took the curse into consideration when choosing to kill Kage. They killed him because he was one of Reenk's named innocents.

You can break the tie Craterus...vote for Seamus.

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Originally Posted by Craterus

Why is that directed at me? I'm not leading the case against you. ~:confused: (My vendetta is against Dutch_guy. ~;p)

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Because...

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And, at the moment, my vote is for Xiahou.

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Another thing about Crazed Rabbit's argument, is that his premises are much more dogmatic than mine. He oddly claims that if Xiahou is the mafia, then he is the only one (again, no reason given). I claimed that if Seamus was the mafia, it is more likely that Seamus is alone than not (giving reasons as to why this is).

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If Xiahou is mafia, then either me or don are his fellow associates or noone at all. I know I am innocent and I'm pretty sure right now that don is. Simple logic. I'm not sure about Seamus's supporters (those voting for Xiahou or not voting).

Your whole case rests on some percieved pattern between me and Xiahou that is primarily a figment of your imagination.

Crazed Rabbit

Also, Reenk, when Crazed Rabbit was the Serial Killer in my game, he was attacked quite strongly but did not swear he was innocent, even though he got lynched. Conversely, everytime he has sworn he was innocent, he has been innocent.

Okay, I've made my decision.

Voting will continue until the tie is broken.

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Originally Posted by Reenk Roink

Who should be lynched this round:

Since we don't have a name for Seamus' partner yet (Sasaki and Kommodus are holding back on their suspect), it is more plausible that he is dead rather than alive, as in this late stage of the game, a partner would certainly surface (as in the Crazed Rabbit/Xiahou case). Thus, with two lynches left, it would certainly be more prudent to lynch Xiahou, and deliberate on Seamus/Crazed Rabbit next round.

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*sigh*
That's loonacy. You're arguing that since Seamus doesnt have a clear associate, which would be the way to play as mafia- not be associated with your partner- that his partner would have to be dead. OTOH, you're arguing that because CR and I have supposedly been voting similarly (that's never been made clear to me), we must both be mafia- even though acting in such a fashion would be very stupid for mafia to do.

Heres some thoughts:
1) If Reenk was mafia and is just trying to save his partners skin, you can afford to be "safe" and lynch me this round- just don't let him talk you into lynching CR next round.

2) If Reenk is just plain wrong and not deliberately misleading, we may still have Seamus and another mafioso left. In that case, being "safe" and lynching me will lose the game.

His suggested course of action makes no sense at all though- lynching me this round still leaves the town in the same position... You still have to accept the CR and Xiahou slate or the Seamus and unknown slate (Reenk maybe?). If the town thinks it's CR and myself, they still have no choice but to lynch CR next round or loose regardless. If you think it's Seamus, you should lynch him this round and hopefully end the game- but if he still has a living partner, you still have another round to find him.

My prediction is that if I'm lynched, Reenk will make the above argument and push to see CR lynched, defending Seamus yet again.

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Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Craterus, I doubt the mafia took the curse into consideration when choosing to kill Kage. They killed him because he was one of Reenk's named innocents.

You can break the tie Craterus...vote for Seamus.

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Quick summary of why I should vote for Seamus please.

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Originally Posted by Crazed Rabbit

Your whole case rests on some percieved pattern between me and Xiahou that is primarily a figment of your imagination.

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Figment of my imagination?

This is a figment of my imagination?

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Well fellow villagers, I have closely examined the thread and the evidence is even more damning! CR and Xiahou are like siamese twins. Aside from the three rounds already mentioned, here is the other stuff:

Round 2: CR abstained, while Xiahou didn't vote

Both didn't vote in the tiebreaker.

They were probably wanting to lay low after the first round where I called them out.

Round 3: CR and Xiahou both voted for Zal. In what would be a recurring pattern, their posts were very close together, deliberations being one after another...

Round 4: Xiahou voted for Csar, in his long attempt to get him lynched. CR layed low again, taking an on again off again approach.

Round 5: CR voted disco. Separated by only one post, Xiahou voted for Csar again (in his attempt to get him lynched since last round) but get this, he said: "disco seems like a reasonable choice".

And you know Round 6 and 7.

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Denying this connection is futile. Better that you give me examples of other people having this kind of voting pattern so I can see it as a not so rare occurrence or tell me a good alternative reason to why you both were voting so closely?

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Originally Posted by Xiahou

*sigh*
That's loonacy. You're arguing that since Seamus doesnt have a clear associate, which would be the way to play as mafia- not be associated with your partner- that his partner would have to be dead. OTOH, you're arguing that because CR and I have supposedly been voting similarly (that's never been made clear to me), we must both be mafia- even though acting in such a fashion would be very stupid for mafia to do.

Heres some thoughts:
1) If Reenk was mafia and is just trying to save his partners skin, you can afford to be "safe" and lynch me this round- just don't let him talk you into lynching CR next round.

2) If Reenk is just plain wrong and not deliberately misleading, we may still have Seamus and another mafioso left. In that case, being "safe" and lynching me will lose the game.

His suggested course of action makes no sense at all though- lynching me this round still leaves the town in the same position... You still have to accept the CR and Xiahou slate or the Seamus and unknown slate (Reenk maybe?). If the town thinks it's CR and myself, they still have no choice but to lynch CR next round or loose regardless. If you think it's Seamus, you should lynch him this round and hopefully end the game- but if he still has a living partner, you still have another round to find him.

My prediction is that if I'm lynched, Reenk will make the above argument and push to see CR lynched, defending Seamus yet again.

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Interesting theory. Now, it's odd that I'm being called into question for being a Mafia now, but it's better than the other responses.

I suppose you know how I pushed for Seamus to be lynched right until I realized that there was such an uncanny pattern between you two? Like I said, Kommodus' argument against Seamus is decent, but I just feel that my argument against you guys is better.

Now, my sources have sent me reasons as to why the previously named partner of Seamus could be guilty, and I will reflect on them, but for now, I remain convinced that you guys are more likely than Seamus to be guilty, and all things equal, it's safer to lynch one of you first. My reasoning is more than well documented above.

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Originally Posted by Craterus

Quick summary of why I should vote for Seamus please.

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Ok. Problematic because you haven't played the last few games, but Seamus has been acting different than in past games (Xiahou has been acting the same as last game. I partnered with him as mafia, I think I could recognize if he were mafia again).

I also don't know if you were around for the last couple times Kommodus used his numerical methods. He ID'd Lemur in Mafia II and Masy in Mafia IV. His current system is obviously accurate since it found out the detective (someone will act differently if they are detective just like they will if they are mafia). It's a fairly safe assumption that if he method points at Seamus this game then Seamus is mafia.

Here's Kommodus's post for reference: https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=716

Note that Duck and doc_bean both said they found Seamus strange too, and they are usually quite savvy.

Here's my post where I bring some arguments against Seamus: https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=719

And another of Kommodus's: https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=723

Also, look at the lynching of Reenk. It's obvious now that he was the detective. If you look, you can see Seamus put the lynch vote on Reenk. Then Xiahou put the third vote on. Now, if Seamus were mafia he would be eager to lynch Reenk, as would Xiahou. But there was no need for Xiahou to put that third vote on. He could have waited to see if Reenk remained in the lead. I think if he was mafia he would be cautious about voting for the detective if he didn't have to--he got caught in Cosa Nuova because of his vote for Kagemusha which Sigurd later picked up on.

This round he cast a vote for Don which didn't make much sense. Then he follows it up with this:

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CR/X-man: what up? I wrote off Don's vote as an anomaly with all the dead whispering, but sheesh guys!

Well, I am certain I shouldn't be the target, so though I suspect Xiahou less than I do Don C, I'll

Unvote: Don C
Vote: Xiahou.

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If he thought Don was guilty then his post wouldn't be an anomaly. It would be Don trying to get Seamus lynched. He slipped up here and revealed he didn't actually find Don suspicious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfvX...elated&search=

GH, can we just kill them both?

Basic disconnect here, Sasaki.

I am as close to certain that Reenk's detective reveal was bogus as it is possible to be without the benefit of having been his mafia partner. He threw out stuff that was piecemeal, defensive, and incomplete. With Reenk gone there is one mafia left. My thoughts lean towards CR or Don C, and CR's innocent claim -- and you're correct that he's so far avoided outright lies -- seemed stronger. Xiahou is only on my vote list as a defense.

Yet you are buying Reenk as a detective!?!??!:no:

If I had to bet, I'd guess that Guru was being absolutely honest when he claimed to be a detective -- not that it helped him.

Others are trying to claim that I am Reenk's mafia partner :shame: -- at least that would suggest that I was TRYING to play the game on a more subtle level. You've got me "pegged" as a mafia based on a dumb-bunny move (nothing personal CR).

Doesn't connect folks....

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

If I had to bet, I'd guess that Guru was being absolutely honest when he claimed to be a detective -- not that it helped him.

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Hahahahaha that was why you killed him then? You actually believed him? :laugh4:

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With Reenk gone there is one mafia left. My thoughts lean towards CR or Don C

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Why on earth would your thoughts lean towards CR when Reenk has been trying to get us to lynch him for the last 3 pages? Does not connect :p

What if we're barking at the completely wrong tree here? Why can't the likes of Craterus and Dutch_guy be guilty?

Anyway I believe one of the mafioso's has some degree of multiplayer experience. I base this on the assumption that the Aggony clan isn't really that well known outside the MP group and the killer knew that I'm a member of this lovely clan. (although he might have just taken a look at my profile and checked the link)

Anyway I believe Seamus is innocent. He seems to be mainly a SP player, while on the other hand Crazed Rabbit has a pretty extensive MP career in MTW/VI. ~;)

EDIT: (I believe Sasaki might be correct with it being a red herring) ~:(

If Craterus and Dutch Guy were both guilty one of them could have switched to Seamus and ended it. Either Seamus or Xiahou are mafia, that's undeniable.

I think it's pretty clear that the multiplayer bit was a red herring. Why else would they include it? The mafia doesn't just give away clues like that. They've done an excellent job confusing the town though.

Maybe you're right about it being a red herring.