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TBH I think he can, the demographics still aren't necessarily onside in terms of old vs young but with more younger voters and less older voters in the next election, combined with Scottish Labour not encouraging people to vote Tory and with the Labour party itself not trying to launch coups every couple of years....Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
He could start to make some serious movement towards government.
Funny thing though - Corbyn still has a negative personal approval rating.
Also, looks like those who voted Labour and gave Corbyn his big swing were substantially composed of last-minuters. At present we don't know if that's Corbyn having an impact or May turning people off - she turned me off.
So, with a new leader the Tories might chip away at Corbyn's swing substantially. They'd likely only need to achieve a percentage point swing the other way to secure a majority.
Listened to an interesting programme on Radio 4, might have been any questions or any answers.
The youth vote came up and obviously talk got onto the record turnout amongst young people and then a very interesting call came in from a woman in her 30's with 2 young teenagers, 13 and 15. Apparently politics was being discussed quite regularly amongst her children and their school friends, her children had started coming home and having conversations about politics with her, Brexit was apparently the trigger for this.
More interestingly still was talk of the straw polls conducted and the results overwhelmingly favouring Corbyn. I don't know how possible it is, maybe someone can tell me but I would like May to hang on for the full 5 years or if not as long as possible. This defeat combined with Brexit actually going through is going to make the current young voters and those new ones coming through twice as determined.
TBH considering everything I can only assume that approval rating is guided much more by the older generations, personally I'd be much more interested in approval ratings of all those that vote.
Edit: I was quite upset the night of the Brexit vote but quite frankly the effects so far have incredibly positive, if we are talking trade off this is one I am willing to make.
Edit 2: Some very interesting polls on which way people would vote if the election was tomorrow, very interesting indeed.
The Tory manifesto was quite incredible, in how it seemingly sought to hit every single wrong note to piss off every demographic. The campaign, other than focusing on Corbyn, sought only to please one demographic: Brexit voters. It was based on the premise that UKIP was the gateway drug towards voting Tory. In the event, the UKIP vote evaporated as predicted, but fewer than predicted turned blue, with many returning to the red fold. With this overriding premise insufficiently correct, the Tories turned off significant numbers with their suicidal policies and May's non-appearances. Like I've said before, May's style is even more presidential than Blair ever was, except she has even less ability to carry it off, and consequently looks arrogant and out of touch. In many ways, May's campaign was the antithesis of Major in 1992.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
It should be remembered that the Tories remain in power despite all that May has done. The election has staved off hard Brexit for the time being, but the Tories are still in the driving seat.Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleGrizzly
Obviously things can change but to be honest in a short term pain long term gain kind of way that could be for the best, her or another Tory in charge for a couple of years at least. I think young people are going to be disgusted at the thinking of the party they are now in cahoots with as well.
If you're banking on young people becoming disgusted with the DUP alliance, note that most of that demographic is already voting Labour. There's not much left to gain there. Before May made a determined effort to throw these votes away, the two ends of the spectrum were solidly Labour and Tory. The crossover point is around 35. That's roughly where the centre is. What you do is retain sufficient of your core support, and push that line as far as you can, without pissing them off too much that voting for you will be anathema.Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleGrizzly
Note that next time, the Tories won't be pushing a dementia tax, starving children, or killing foxes. And it won't be May leading them.
Next time the Labour party won't be trying to oust its popular leader and brand him unelectable. The Tories will struggle to make much play with any threats of coalitions of chaos and the media is going to struggle to play the same mantra about Corbyn being unelectable and useless.
Also maybe we won't have Scottish Labour telling people to vote Labour, she knows she can't remove Corbyn so maybe she will actually get on with her job of winning Labour seats now. Imagine the difference if we had Scottish Tories pushing a Labour vote!!
Which demographic will Labour win over next time? Look up the graph of how age group is the closest correlation with how a demographic votes, how the crossover point is at 35 or thereabouts, and how this has held true for decades. Remember that Corbyn is immensely popular with Labour members. That does not equal British voters.Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleGrizzly
Everyone and their dog can see how the Tory mistakes, at least those not relating to Brexit, can be rectified next time. Don't unnecessarily piss off older voters. Don't make it easy to portray the Tories as the nasty party. Get someone in who can face an audience with questions. None of which is particularly difficult (it was far harder to come up with the perfect :daisy:storm that May did). And that addresses to upper end of the spectrum and a fair bit of the rest. And they start as the largest party by more than 50 seats.
Elections are won in the centre. The crossover point is at 35.
Because it's not about Corbyn. It's about politics with some honesty and not just spin and expediency. About social democracy and not neo liberalism. Labour could have picked a better candidate - but the others were blairites. That means spin and neo liberalism.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
If May had turned up to both TV debates and said nothing about fox hunting I reckon they Tories would have gained 10-30 seats. It is by no means clear that support for Corbyn is deep among young people so much as broad.
It's also worth remembering that all these young people voting for him would be mostly too young to remember much of Castro or Chavez, and might not have been born before the IRA ceasefire. Thus far the Tories have treated Corbyn like something of a clown, not taken him seriously.
Now they will be going for him with knives and you can knock a lot of the veneer off an English Socialist by linking him to terrorists and tin-pot South American Dictators.
Nobody's asked him why he supported Castro whilst calling for Pinochet to be arrested yet.
Corbyn is not honest. He is, at best, self-deceptive.Quote:
Originally Posted by Idaho
I would argue his popularity IS primarily personal because he has become a personal emblem of Socialism.
Yeah that is definitely the problem... the media didn't go after Corbyn hard enough... maybe the conservatives just weren't right wing enough. Double down and go again I say.
Didn't you argue earlier that Labour should double down on the youth vote? Probably because they'd be so disgusted with the DUP that the youth vote will count double next time.Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleGrizzly
The Tories did a number of extraordinarily stupid things. Jaw-dropping stuff. Yet they have 318 MPs. It wouldn't take much to correct these mistakes; just some reasonably competent political operators. Labour will re-start from a lower level, but they've already pretty much squeezed the youth vote dry. This is the high point without moving for the centre. That means persuading the 30-50 demographic.
Technically, there is still another 25% of the youth vote that could be motivated to vote labour next election...Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
just remember that not all leavers made brexit about immigration.Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleGrizzly
my problems with immigration is not about immigration per-se, it's about a failure of integration caused by multi-culturalism.
that is [our] fault, not the EU's.
my reason - and that of the majority of leavers in Ashcroft's exit polls - was sovereignty.
Technically. But they're getting older, and historically people follow the demographic trends. Historically young people also don't vote. So will there be a reversion to mean? Meanwhile, there are some very easy things that the Tories can do to regain their vote in the higher age group. Which, let's not forget, outnumbers the lower age group. The Tories nearly have a majority, and they did quite a few astonishingly stupid things in the election. If they eliminate the obvious stupidities, they can easily get back up above the majority mark.Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
It all goes back to the given wisdom that elections are won in the centre. If Labour want power, they need to look at the 30-50 demographic.
That could have been dealt with whilst still within the EU though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
Would you be ok if we cancelled Brexit, but the Westminster government tightens up on existing powers as they're entitled to do, as various EU countries do?
May already starting to brief against her rivals, warning them she knows where the skeletons are buried. I think I can do without effective government for a while while I enjoy watching this spectacle. Not as enjoyable as 1997, but more amusing.
Much of this is true, but you overlook the fact that the "centre" in British politics is never set in stone. What constitutes the broad political consensus shifts all the time. Gay rights are fringe 40 years ago. Privatising the NHS also.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
The centre is changed by defining moments and elections. I am happy with this last result as it can't help but move certain policies into the consensus/centre.
Look, will you make an effort to read my posts instead of just wheeling out pat answers?Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleGrizzly
This isn't about the Tories needing to be more "right-wing".
First off, "double down and go again" is Corbyn to Milliband, so pot kettle black there. The point I was making is that the Conservatives only made half-hearted attacks on Corbyn's record.
How much of the youth vote will come out for him once it gets wifely circulated that he was in bed with Holocaust deniers ten years ago?
Reported for obscene content. Need mind bleach.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
I think the constant smears against him is part of what turns the youth vote off the Conservatives TBH, just promise not to tell Tory HQ!Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
TBH that sovereignty largely tended to be about full control of our borders from my (limited) experience but out of interest for you personally is there a solution which includes the single market, free movement of Labour and sovereignty?Quote:
Originally Posted by Furunculus
Maybe it's simpler, Brits just don't apreciate the downright hostile tone of tbe scared cats in BrusselsQuote:
Originally Posted by LittleGrizzly
So Fragony would withdraw his leave vote in the UK if the EU were just a bit more respectful??
Does this take the form of something particular like control of over a certain set of policies?
I'll add that, in my experience, multiculturalism involving other Europeans has not been a problem. They're fairly close to us culturally, and they're willing to work to fit in. Problems mainly involve migrants from outside the EU. We can restrict migrants from selected countries outside the EU without it affecting existing EU agreements. There is quite a lot national governments can do within existing EU frameworks, which other countries do, but the UK does not.
Maybe next time Frag will vote Lib Dem or some other UK party that supports continued membership of the EU.Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleGrizzly
In bed? You mean talking to people who have crazy and unpalatable views?Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
And yet, like a true right winger, you look at the speck in your brother's eye, but fail to notice the beam in your own eye. The tories have numerous mps who come out with racist, hateful, bonkers stuff all the time. But as they are middle class white men you (and the media) don't find them problematic. The tories are in government with the DUP! THE DUP! And you don't engage with that at all? That's nothing?!
Well I can't. But you will have to wait very long for me to consider the EU anything other than hostile to me. They are because I completily disregard it's need to exist, they scream 'populists' if you are against the EU. Look the word up and why and whenQuote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian