I don't actually think that N. Korea is worth it to be honest. I was under the impression that its population is almost entirely on the point of starvation, that its economy is, and has been for some time, on the point of utter collapse, and that its leader actually believes the Terminator is real and is currently the governor of California.
The thing is no one is really willing to hit N. Korea because they have nukes, which means that in nine out of ten cases any war with them will end up with Seoul becoming a glass tomb to millions of people, which is a price too high for any sane leader to even contemplate. That’s the simple fact, in today’s world of mass media the blame would shift to the leaders who began the conflict, in a democratic nation at any rate, and they would be out of office faster that you can blink. Hence morality and self-interest dictate that no one is willing to tangle with N. Korea.
The only viable situation in which I can see a war with N. Korea ever being acceptable to any leader is if N. Korea strikes first, in which case Seoul would more than likely already be a hole in the ground and pretty much everyone would dump so much military strength on N. Korea so quickly that the country would be gone in weeks if not days. In any event the cost in human lives (Not: I'm mainly referring to civilian casualties) would be so high that it would be a hollow victory at best.
The missile tests are as has been said sabre-rattling from a country that’s two steps away from collapse at the best of times and relies from hand-outs from its old ally. And much as I would like to be able to get rid of all dictatorships getting rid of this one if done by military means is something that would be a tragedy in terms of human loss on a scale not seen since WW2. With any luck the economic and diplomatic forces currently in action in the region will achieve eventually what I hope like hell will never come about by military means.
07-19-2006, 19:22
Pannonian
Re: North Korean Missle Launched at Hawaii!
Redleg, we seem to be talking about different visions of a US attack on North Korea. Read Cunobelinus' posts #62 and #65 to see what I was replying to, and the scenario I was answering. You're talking about a situation where there is reason to believe that NK will attack, and therefore the US attack will be a spoiling one, what I understand to be the international definition of pre-emption. What Cunobelinus was talking about was a situation where GW Bush thinks NK needs attacking, and does so, which would be the neocon definition of pre-emption.
If the attack on NK meets the general definition of pre-emption, it is legally a defensive war, no-one will support the North Koreans and everyone will support the Americans. If the attack meets the neocon definition but no-one else's, who will support the Americans? I'm assuming that no-one will actively support the North Koreans in either scenario.
07-19-2006, 19:51
Redleg
Re: North Korean Missle Launched at Hawaii!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Redleg, we seem to be talking about different visions of a US attack on North Korea. Read Cunobelinus' posts #62 and #65 to see what I was replying to, and the scenario I was answering.
Red them and your making an assumption about my reply that was not present. I wasn't talking about different versions of an attack - I was clearly stating why an attack will not take place until certain conditions are meet.
Quote:
You're talking about a situation where there is reason to believe that NK will attack, and therefore the US attack will be a spoiling one, what I understand to be the international definition of pre-emption.
Wrong assumption again. I am demonstrating why both of you are incorrect in your assumptions about what could happen. There are certain military conditions that must be meant before any type of attack can be conducted, most military planners place assumptions in their planning process that will enable the mission to take place. If the United States can not meet those base assumptions then an attack is not feasible. I am using some very basic assumptions - the reality of the plan is actually very complex - you can catch a unclassified version of the warplan 50-27 at globalsecurity.org to get a better understand.
Neither of you have demonstrated the necessary conditions for a viable attack to happen regardless if its a classic pre-emptive strike or the situation that you are attempting to worse case, an aggressive move to remove the nuclear threat of North Korea.
Quote:
What Cunobelinus was talking about was a situation where GW Bush thinks NK needs attacking, and does so, which would be the neocon definition of pre-emption.
And hince I entered the discussion to point out where both of you are making faulty arguements. The United States does not have the assets available to conduct such a raid on North Korea to destroy its Nuclear Sites, nor is the death star available to conduct such a mission. Your stuck on thinking of a situation that can not occur until certain conditions are present.
The tactic you are atributing to the neocons is unfortunately much older then them. It just been revamp by them for today.
Quote:
If the attack on NK meets the general definition of pre-emption, it is legally a defensive war, no-one will support the North Koreans and everyone will support the Americans. If the attack meets the neocon definition but no-one else's, who will support the Americans? I'm assuming that no-one will actively support the North Koreans in either scenario.
There will not be an attack on North Korea without South Korean support.
To conduct the envisioned neocon type pre-emptive strike requires assets to be on the ground to provide ground support to an air attack deep into North Korea to destroy Nuclear Sites. North Korea is far from defenseless with an outdated airforce - and a dated but still execellent airdefense system.
The United States does not have the assets to conduct such an operation that both of you are imaging, nor will it currently be willing to risk the assets to conduct a solo air raid into North Korea. You are attempting to paint a scenerio that does not exist in reality. Is the United States going to crap abunch of planes and pilots to replace the ones that will be lost conducting a strike into North Korea? I wonder if you understand the type of coverage that North Korea maintains with its air defense system? Have you heard about the Wire strung between Mountain Tops to prevent low flying helicopters and planes from coming flying map of the earth to aviod anti-aircraft radar? I am also willing to bet you think the neocons are basically idiots that have no ability to listen to military planners, and that military planners will allow thier forces to go on sucide missions that have limited possiblities of success?
If the real world actions concerning North Korea doesn't show you that a strike on North Korea will not happen until North Korea makes an aggressive move - such as a missile strike on Japan or South Korea or actually launches a ground attack south into Souel - then you have been fully taken in by the propaganda of the conspricacy theorists.
07-19-2006, 21:48
Pannonian
Re: North Korean Missle Launched at Hawaii!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redleg
Red them and your making an assumption about my reply that was not present. I wasn't talking about different versions of an attack - I was clearly stating why an attack will not take place until certain conditions are meet.
If the real world actions concerning North Korea doesn't show you that a strike on North Korea will not happen until North Korea makes an aggressive move - such as a missile strike on Japan or South Korea or actually launches a ground attack south into Souel - then you have been fully taken in by the propaganda of the conspricacy theorists.
Perhaps I overestimate the capabilities of the US military. As sceptical as I am about their abilities in irregular conflicts, I have been assuming that they can work near-miracles in conventional wars. IE. If the US wishes to launch an amphibious invasion of NK via Japan and bypassing SK, it can, given the will and some time to prepare.
07-19-2006, 22:38
Redleg
Re: North Korean Missle Launched at Hawaii!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Perhaps I overestimate the capabilities of the US military. As sceptical as I am about their abilities in irregular conflicts, I have been assuming that they can work near-miracles in conventional wars. IE. If the US wishes to launch an amphibious invasion of NK via Japan and bypassing SK, it can, given the will and some time to prepare.
A seaborne invasion without the support of South Korea would be extremely difficult to pull off. I personally don't think the United States has the resources to invade by sea in the way that would enable the operation to be successful. With 1.5 million men under arms in North Korea, one would have to fight a war of attrition of not only men but material. The United States could win based purely upon material and resources availiable - but the manpower requirement will exceed the ingrained will to fight on foriegn soil amount that the American people would accept.
To put a complex situation in a simple statement, One of the reasons for nuclear weapons on Japan at the end of WW2 was the belief that the causality rate would be to much for the American People to accept.
07-20-2006, 03:27
Papewaio
Re: North Korean Missle Launched at Hawaii!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Let's see if Japanese troops would be welcomed the next time there is trouble in East Timor, or other places formerly in the co-prosperity sphere.
Not including engineers like the ones in Iraq right?
The ones that were previously deployed in East Timor in 2002 right?
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
ADDITIONAL JAPANESE PKF ARRIVE; SHIP DUE THIS WEEK
More than 300 Japanese peacekeepers arrived in Dili over the weekend, joining 67 members of the Japanese Engineering Group (JEG) already in the territory. An additional 47 soldiers and two shipments of vehicles and equipment are due to arrive this week.
The 303 engineers and support troops flew into Comoro Airport on Saturday and Sunday aboard commercial aircraft. They represent the largest group of a 690-soldier Japanese Ground Self Defence Force Engineering Group, which is arriving in stages to replace departing Pakistan and Bangladesh engineers as part of the ongoing downsizing of the UN Peacekeeping Force.
A Japanese military cargo vessel, the Ohsumi, will arrive off the coast of East Timor tomorrow, 26 March, to unload vehicles, construction equipment and 47 additional peacekeepers in Suai, Dili and the Oecussi enclave over the next two weeks.
Special hovercraft will be deployed from the ship to transport the troops and equipment to shore. The Suai landing is scheduled to take place this week, Dili on 5 April and Oecussi on 9 April.
The same Japanese peacekeepers who were engineers who were publically thanked by the East Timor President in 2004 right?
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Gusmao thanks Japan's peacekeepers to East Timor
Asian Political News, March 1, 2004
TOKYO, Feb. 25 Kyodo
East Timor President Xanana Gusmao on Wednesday thanked Japan for taking part in the U.N. peacekeeping operations (PKO) in his country, saying the Japanese noncombat troops are working well together with local people, Defense Agency officials said.
Gusmao conveyed his gratitude to Defense Agency Director General Shigeru Ishiba during their meeting at the agency office in Tokyo.
The officials quoted Ishiba as saying that the United Nations has also praised the Self-Defense Forces, which is a source of great source of pride and encouragement to them.
According to the officials, Ishiba also indicated that the government will continue to cooperate in nation-building efforts in East Timor.
07-20-2006, 03:53
Redleg
Re: North Korean Missle Launched at Hawaii!
Well then there is the diplomatic and political messages being sent via proper communication channels and yes even the Media.
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said Wednesday (July 19) that North Korea's recent missile tests were wrong and could obstruct peace on the Korean Peninsula and trigger a regional arms race, according to his top security secretary.
Now I found this one interesting - especially after the current tract of discussion
China is urging Pyongyang to return to multilateral talks on its nuclear programs and resume a moratorium on missile tests. But at a press briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Jiang Yu warned against pinning all expectations on Beijing.
South Korean diplomacy hasn't fared much better. In Seoul today, North Korean officials walked out of cabinet-level talks with the South and refused its requests to discuss the missile
Then breaking news - (looks like my thought was correct)
The United States will start deploying missile interceptors at a key air force base in Japan from this summer, as part of efforts with Tokyo to deal with the threat of North Korea's missile arsenal, the Japanese Foreign Ministry said on Thursday.
07-20-2006, 11:07
Tsavong
Re: North Korean Missle Launched at Hawaii!
shorly if there was a war aganced North Korea, and the US wanted to invade wodent the best method be to some how get china involved otherwise it could be very costley for the US and its allies shorly?
