-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ishmael
I don't think that's really intended as a detective claim, although JHT can feel free to confirm that.
Anyway, what is the case on Visor? I get the feeling that I'm missing something here.
It's an "I used my ability on him and got a guilty result" claim. I don't know what the ability is, I could be a Bar Tender looking for the guy who stole a bottle of bacardi from behind the bar.
But I'm probably some form of cop.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
johnhughthom
I don't know what the ability is, I could be a Bar Tender looking for the guy who stole a bottle of bacardi from behind the bar.
No, you can't ~:)
List of possible roles is included in first post
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
johnhughthom
It's an "I used my ability on him and got a guilty result" claim. I don't know what the ability is, I could be a Bar Tender looking for the guy who stole a bottle of bacardi from behind the bar.
But I'm probably some form of cop.
Huh. Well, in that case unvote: vote, Visorslash. Sure JHT could be an insane/paranoid cop, but this still gives us a better than otherwise chance of lynching scum.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ishmael
Huh. Well, in that case unvote: vote, Visorslash. Sure JHT could be an insane/paranoid cop, but this still gives us a better than otherwise chance of lynching scum.
No, it doesn't. We know it can't be Naive Cop, and I don't know what the Macho Cop does, but assuming Sane Cop is the only one that gives the correct answer, Visor has a one in four shot of being mafia.
How many mafia are in this game? Two? Three? Five?
With so many power roles in the town's hands, I'd have to say at least 3, perhaps more. In which case, there being 13 living players left, we have about a one in four shot of hitting mafia if we lynch at random.
The only thing that could make it worth it to lynch Visorslash solely because of the scan result would be getting some extra insight as to what JHT's role is. But then again, if he's right about Visorslash, he probably won't live to scan again. If he's not, his role is almost useless until we figure it out, but he might still get killed just because of the risk of him being a paranoid cop.
That said, I might vote for Visor anyway. We have enough votes to lynch him though. I'll leave my vote open in case I see someone pull a scummy move and we ought to change the lynch.
Vote: Abstain
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
I can assure you that JHT is a paranoid or insane cop.
Atheotes is a much better lynch then me.
EDIT: Macho cops can't be protected.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
he probably won't live to scan again.
As an outed cop who can't even be trusted to influence the lynch with his scans, he will not live long anyway.
Lynch the both of them.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
With the first post I thought John was joking lol
Atheotes did lynch Monty, but imo the latter is to blame, for putting his usual "networky, know it all" aura, which townies so love to lynch...
Visor did joke vote on D1, but so does everybody else pretty much: in any other game, I'd vote Visor, but here we could've town powers working against itself...
Vote: Chaotix
He should know how Monty plays, but still worked on the town's paranoia and he has been in his "helpful townie" persona, which he lately picked up as mafia (see for example the "nobody is hosting" game), keeping distance even with this runaway wagon...
Of all people he's the one trying the hardest to keep it cool...
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Chaotix
No, it doesn't. We know it can't be Naive Cop, and I don't know what the Macho Cop does, but assuming Sane Cop is the only one that gives the correct answer, Visor has a one in four shot of being mafia.
If the macho cop is as Visor says, then JHT has a 3/5 chance of getting the right answer:
If target is mafia: Sane, Macho, Paranoid are correct.
If target is town: Sane, Macho and Naive are correct.
Assuming for the sake of argument that there are 3 scum roles, that gives us a 3/5 probability of Visorslash being scum, versus a 3/13 chance of lynching scum if we lynch randomly.
That said, now that I've typed this I've realised there's the possibility that JHT is a lying mafioso, in which case he can just plead insanity and get away with it. But that seems a bit of a high-risk play by mafia for D2, and I think I'm willing to risk it.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Arjos
With the first post I thought John was joking lol
Atheotes did lynch Monty, but imo the latter is to blame, for putting his usual "networky, know it all" aura, which townies so love to lynch...
Visor did joke vote on D1, but so does everybody else pretty much: in any other game, I'd vote Visor, but here we could've town powers working against itself...
Vote: Chaotix
He should know how Monty plays, but still worked on the town's paranoia and he has been in his "helpful townie" persona, which he lately picked up as mafia (see for example the "nobody is hosting" game), keeping distance even with this runaway wagon...
Of all people he's the one trying the hardest to keep it cool...
Oh, please. I am the definition of cool.
Nobody can make me sweat.
Not even a little.
I do know how Monty plays. It's just that he was practically asking to be lynched, and when someone does that you just gotta lynch them because if you don't and they turn out to be mafia, then everyone feels like an idiot.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ishmael
If the macho cop is as Visor says, then JHT has a 3/5 chance of getting the right answer:
If target is mafia: Sane, Macho, Paranoid are correct.
If target is town: Sane, Macho and Naive are correct.
Assuming for the sake of argument that there are 3 scum roles, that gives us a 3/5 probability of Visorslash being scum, versus a 3/13 chance of lynching scum if we lynch randomly.
That said, now that I've typed this I've realised there's the possibility that JHT is a lying mafioso, in which case he can just plead insanity and get away with it. But that seems a bit of a high-risk play by mafia for D2, and I think I'm willing to risk it.
If Macho Cop gives the correct answer too, that's pretty much all I need. It's actually 75% instead of 60%, because there's a 0% chance that JHT is a Naive Cop - he couldn't get a guilty result if that was the case.
Unvote, Vote: Visorslash
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Funny maths.
Sane, Macho, Paranoid, Insane. The last two are worthless: 50%.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Montmorency
Funny maths.
Sane, Macho, Paranoid, Insane. The last two are worthless: 50%.
Gah. Yes, you are correct. Paranoid does not actually give useful results (but Insane does if you can figure it out).
Still, 50% is good chances, low risk.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Montmorency
Funny maths.
Sane, Macho, Paranoid, Insane. The last two are worthless: 50%.
Not true. If you scan a happen to scan a mafioso as a paranoid detective (and, importantly, you don't know you're paranoid), then you're still correct. It doesn't matter that you're right for the wrong reasons, only that you're right.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
I will say what is macho policeman in this game (if he is here...).
Macho policeman: gets correct results of scans; if he is protected, his scanning ability does not work for this night (protection acts additionally as a roleblocking at him)
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jarema
No, you can't ~:)
List of possible roles is included in first post
:laugh4:
Love your deadpan posting style, Jarema. :yes:
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
What do we want to look at? We want to know the probability of Visor being scum based on the result.
There are 4 possible roles, and two always give a valid result.
A third - insane - gives an opposite result, so a guilty result would indicate a 0% chance.
The fourth - paranoid - always gives the same result, so we'll take your figure for random and give it a 3/13 chance.
So 1.00*.25 + 1.00*.25 + .23*.25 = .5575 = about 56% chance.
Happy?
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ishmael
Not true. If you scan a happen to scan a mafioso as a paranoid detective (and, importantly, you don't know you're paranoid), then you're still correct. It doesn't matter that you're right for the wrong reasons, only that you're right.
For our purposes, if JHT is a Paranoid Cop then his result on Visorslash has no bearing on whether or not he's mafia. Whereas Sane and Macho mean for sure that he's mafia, and Insane means the opposite. So technically the chances for Visorslash being mafia come out to 50% + (25% * 3/13). But that is so close to 50% that it would be annoying to insinuate it's a significant difference, especially after all those other times that my math was wrong and I was corrected.
EDIT: Pirate Ninja Robot Zombie'd.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Stop turning mafia into maths!
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Chaotix
EDIT: Pirate Ninja Robot Zombie'd.
Hey! Stop cross-promoting!
It looks like you guys are correct on that, but it of course still gives us a much better than random chance of catching scum if we lynch Visor.
Also JHT, don't you know that maths is fun? :beam:
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
I agree with the Visorslash lynch
Vote:Visorslash
John's results are still better than lynching randomly IMO.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Tally:
Visorslash: johnhughtom, Edse, Zaccino, Atheotes, Ishmael, BSmith, Chaotix, Memnon,
Atheotes: Visorslash,
Zaccino: The King
Chaotix: Arjos
Not voting: Robbiecon, Daveshack
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Visorslash was lynched!
Night 2 begins.
Living:
1. DaveShack
2. Edse
3. Chaotix
4. BSmith
5. Robbiecon
6. Memnon
7. Arjos
8.
9. Ishmael
10. The King
11. Atheotes
12. classical hero replaced by johnhughtom
13.
14.
15. Zaccino
Dead:
Montmorency: town, cop. Lynched day 1.
Nightbringer: town, jailkeeper. Killed night 1.
Visorslash: mafia, informant. Lynched day 2.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Fancy that John was right ^^
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Fancy that, John is gonna die... :laugh4:
Unless a clever townie has figured out a protection ability they can use on me.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Ugh, I still have no clue, just the number...
Still imo Visor got bussed today and I have my few suspects...
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
At the beginning of day, two bodies were found.
Day 3 begins.
Living:
1. DaveShack
2. Edse
3. Chaotix
4. BSmith
5. Robbiecon
6. Memnon
7. Arjos
8.
9. Ishmael
10.
11.
12. classical hero replaced by johnhughtom
13.
14.
15. Zaccino
Dead:
Montmorency: town, cop. Lynched day 1.
Nightbringer: town, jailkeeper. Killed night 1.
Visorslash: mafia, informant. Lynched day 2.
The King: town, curious guy. Killed night 2
Atheotes: town, doctor. Killed night 2
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
:juggle2:
Any results for me?
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
Vote: Memnon
Two persons visited johnhughtom last night, atheotes and Memnon.
-
Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')
I am the Monkey. I receive a result that some random person is innocent.
My two innocents returned are Memnon and edse.
I will provisionally Vote: DaveShack, as I need to vote to prevent being WOG'd. If john gets a result, I'll follow that.
