U.S. Election '08: Race to the Conventions

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Originally Posted by Banquo's Ghost

A question, if I may.

At this stage of the primary contest, do voters take into account the possible permutations for Vice-president?

For example, I would suggest that this is an important question in relation to Senator McCain's candidacy. The possibility that a man of 71 might die in office has to be taken seriously, surely. (I know his mother is pretty sprightly, but men tend to die before women - and his father died at 70). Thus whoever is considered for his v-p may stand a very good chance of succeeding to the presidency. Vote McCain, get Huckabee is not a prospect that is likely to appeal to the people who seem to be keen on the former.

Do people take this into account? Do the candidates?

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The short answer is no.

Now for the long answer. If the primaries are close the possiblity of the second place candidate being the vice president nominee becomes possible, especially if the primary candidate does not have the necessary delegates to capture the nomination outright. This is the back room deals that often happen prior to the conventions in the old days, and rumors of what happened in West Virginia for the Republicans this year. If McCain does not capture enough delegates prior to the convention - Hucklebee will most likely be a vice president candidate because of his staying in the race. If McCain capture enough votes then the party gets to decide who they believe is the best possible support to McCain's Bid. My feeling is that Hucklebee will most likely be the vice-presidental candidate because of this reason - that he will help capture states that McCain would not win on his own.

Primarily the convention and the party leaders look to a vice candidate that will help the presidental candidate capture states that he might not be able to do by himself.

A McCain/Huckabee ticket would be truly frightening.... :sweatdrop:

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Originally Posted by Xiahou

A McCain/Huckabee ticket would be truly frightening.... :sweatdrop:

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To me also. I thought Condi would have been a decent choice, it would clip the wings of those who tried to equate the G.O.P. with racism.

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Originally Posted by Xiahou

A McCain/Huckabee ticket would be truly frightening.... :sweatdrop:

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Then are you voting for the democrate candidate if this happens?

:oops:

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Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff

To me also. I thought Condi would have been a decent choice, it would clip the wings of those who tried to equate the G.O.P. with racism.

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From what I've heard/seen from Condi, I think she'd make a strong presidential candidate. Too bad she didn't run.

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Originally Posted by Redleg

Then are you voting for the democrate candidate if this happens?

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Probably not, but I wouldn't be voting GOP either.

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Originally Posted by Xiahou

Probably not, but I wouldn't be voting GOP either.

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For a third viable party. How much America needs one with the choices we have for President, Senator, and Representive in our Federal Government.

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Originally Posted by Redleg

For a third viable party. How much America needs one with the choices we have for President, Senator, and Representive in our Federal Government.

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If more people started thinking that voting for a third party could be a good choice, and stopped thinking that it was throwing their vote away, then a vote for a third party would matter.

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Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff

To me also. I thought Condi would have been a decent choice, it would clip the wings of those who tried to equate the G.O.P. with racism.

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It would also play well with the whole National Security thing that McCain would have to run on.

She (C. Rice) has said that her 'dream job' was Commissioner of the Nat'l Football League, and that this gov't gig was just a stepping-stone to that end.:laugh4:

GWB has said similar things about being baseball commissioner.

Condi would be a strong ticket-mate for any Repub candidate. We The People don't get much say in the selection, tho'. That task gets the old-time 'smokey back room' treatment.

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Originally Posted by KukriKhan

Condi would be a strong ticket-mate for any Repub candidate. We The People don't get much say in the selection, tho'. That task gets the old-time 'smokey back room' treatment.

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That's not entirely a bad thing. :yes:

A McCain/Rice ticket would be formidable, formidable. Excellent idea.

Meanwhile, Obama takes Maine with a 15% margin, echoing the last four contests. But for my money the funniest bit buried in the reporting:

Earlier, the Hillary Clinton "visibility rally" outside the Siegal Center [in Richmond, VA] got off to a bad start. A rental truck carrying the campaign signs struck a BMW driven by an Obama supporter, causing considerable damage.

"This just makes us even stronger Obama supporters," said Rich Garries of Hampton Roads, as he looked at his car.

Why do Hillary supporters hate fine Bavarian automobiles?

I would like to say that i participated today in the Maine caucus, for the town of Orono. We had a record turnout, and the overall vote was almost 3 to 1 for Obama. I saw him speak at the Bangor rally yesterday and i have to say he is the real deal, and has me sold.

I also got elected as a state delegate for my precinct, so I am representing a part of my campus in May at our state convention. I can't wait, it's going to be a blast. It feels good to know that i'm doing my part and my voice will be heard.

Congratulations on being selected, Tristrem. Should be interesting to see it from the inside.

Interesting first-hand accounts coming from Maine ...

I drove for two hours yesterday to Bangor with my sister and daughter to see Barack speak in Maine. I figured it would be interesting to see a candidate speak, when Maine is typically forgotten. We made the mistake of getting there about an hour before the doors opened to the Bangor Auditorium, as the population of the city had increased by a third for his speech. We waited in the longest line I had ever seen in my life for almost two hours. We met some wonderful people, many younger and surprisingly many quite a bit older.

After all of that waiting, we were only a few hundred feet from the auditorium when we were told that the main room had filled to capacity as well as the overflow room. Just when we were ready to turn back, we were told that Barack would speak to us outside, and would do so FIRST.

So imagine a scene like the stump speeches only read about in books, people jostling on snowbanks, climbing fences, trees, even each other in the calm cold that was Maine yesterday to hear and see Barack, for only a few minutes. And did he deliver. There was excitement, there was hope, and there were specifics. Talk of new ways to use our old industrial centers, dead and forgotten by the establishment. Talk of help with college tuition. Talk of thinking about our children and grandchildren first.

He then spent time talking to and shaking hands with the crowd before going in. I could not believe this was happening. No crowd control, no checking of bags, Barack in a potentially dangerous setting with no way for Secret Service to cover him. And he did it without hesitation.

Anyone who will do this in a state with a population likely to vote for Hillary, a tiny, white, poor, lost in the back woods near Canada population, and for those foolish enough to show up "late", is someone who clearly gives a damn. He was comfortable with a chaotic situation, worked it to his advantage on the fly, and did it with grace and aplomb.

Hillary speaks of worries about Barack being a likable guy, same as George Bush. She's right, and also dead wrong. Likable they both can be, yes. But George Bush is the man who drinks you under the table, then drives you all home and thusly off a cliff. Barack is the guy you follow into battle, ready to do what needs to be done to save a country in danger.

This life-long Independent is ready to sign on to the Democratic party, participate in today's caucus, and follow this leader all the way to November and beyond. I exhort everyone else here to consider the same.

I also did not get in the building yesterday. We left at 2:00 because we were only 15 minutes away. It took over an hour to just get off the highway. It was quite the spectacle. I was one of those guys standing on the fence jostling for position just to see him. He gave a great 10 minute speech for us. He was very inspiring, and really makes you feel like you can make a difference. It was worth the wait just to get a glimse of him.


ya i told my parents back home that i was a delegate for part of the university, and my mom told me she volenteered to be an alternate delegate for my home town. I have to say it is awesome to know I will be seeing how this whole election process works from the inside. Words can't describe how excited i am


interesting though, there were over 10,000 people at his rally, and only 1700 at hillary's which was on campus

Looks like the Huck also took Louisiana. Cui bono?

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Originally Posted by Lemur

Looks like the Huck also took Louisiana. Cui bono?

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I hope Huckabee gets the nomination- then I won't have to agonize over whether or not I should vote for McCain against whichever Democrat wins. :2thumbsup:

Of course, a Huckabee VP nomination would have the same effect I guess. :shrug:

Advanced poll-smoking. Like many Orgahs, I have been dismayed at how useless the polls have been for the Democratic race. On the Republican side they've been pretty good, but attempting to get a grip on the Dem primary has felt like trying to box a cloud.

Finally, some young math whiz has waded through the demographics and come up with a model that matches observed reality. Take a look for yourselves. Yes, it's a blogger at Kos, but I'm willing to forgive him, considering the amount of effort and time he must have put into this analysis.

If you're at all interested in the outcome of the Dem primary, I suggest you give it a read.

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Originally Posted by KukriKhan

Condi would be a strong ticket-mate for any Repub candidate. We The People don't get much say in the selection, tho'. That task gets the old-time 'smokey back room' treatment.

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I don't know about this. Strategy wise Condi Rice as a running mate has the potential to open up some seriously large holes for the Democrats to exploit. Rice would be a very good selection for the VP nod and a McCain/Rice ticket would be a solid team and an easy sell in a different time and during a different election year. However McCain is faced with the task of persuading moderates and undecided voters that he is not a Neo-Con and not a standard bearer for the Bush administration. Come the general election McCain must follow the example of Al Gore in 2000 and downplay his professional association with the fellow currently sitting in the White House. With Rice on the ticket McCain runs the serious risk of constantly having to fend off questions and accusations that he is going to be nothing more than four more years of GW Bush. Yes, that is a weak sauce argument to anyone with half a brain but the sheeple will eat it up (take note of the rabid anti-Bush fanaticism emanating from the mouths of plebs these last 8 years). McCain must find himself a running mate present who is an easy sell to undecided moderates.

Last but not least, given the double standard that applies to anything conservatives do that encroaches territory claimed by 'progressives' and liberals you can bet your bottom dollar that the media, the Democrats and the Obama campaign would use a Condi Rice VP nod as an attempt to 'pander' to the black and liberal vote (even though the Republicans almost always lose the lion's share of the former).

Despite the grumblings emanating from core conservatives and evangelicals McCain will get a huge turnout by conservatives because once again, they will be confronted with the prospect of two serious liberals in the form of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. The political stripes of the former are unquestionable, the latter puts up a good smokescreen but anyone who is familiar with his core beliefs and and knows he is cut from the same ideological sheet as Bill Clinton, Gore or Kerry.

Obama wins a Grammy.

Yes, I'm serious. :inquisitive:

Spino, you know I love you, but man, you've got a jaundiced, cynical, backwards-looking view on race relations, which is too damn bad, since there have been so many encouraging developments in the last few years.

• President Bush has appointed one of the most diverse cabinets in the history of the U.S.A., a point for which he gets very little credit.
• Secretary Rice has served as both the National Security Advisor and Secretary of State. If you were to suggest that a black woman could do such a thing forty years ago, you would have been laughed out of the room.
• Senator Obama is very close to gaining the Democratic nomination for President, and has done so largely by running a campaign that explicitly does not pander to black victimhood. Given the rhetoric of '80s and '90s black representatives such as Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, this is a welcome reversal.

And all of this adds up to nothing for you. It's all about "pandering" to the black and liberal vote, it's all about the "sheeple." It's all about the same hard-coded limits that you can't or won't see shifting.

The race equation is changing. Time to notice, friend.

On a completely different note, since Clinton is the last person in the race whom I oppose (besides Huckster, but he ain't serious, is he?), here are some examples of her leadership:

Clinton as Manager:

Over the last seven years, Clinton had raised $175 million for her reelection and her presidential campaign. But Solis Doyle didn't tell Clinton that there was next to no cash on hand until after the New Hampshire primary.

"We were lying about money," a source said. "The cash on hand was nothing."

In turn, Clinton didn't tell Solis Doyle that she was lending her own money to keep the campaign afloat. Solis Doyle found out third-hand. And when she asked Clinton about it, the senator told her she couldn't understand how the campaign had gotten to such a point.

Clinton as Manager Part Deux:

[T]he Obama campaign arguably had more reason than the Clinton campaign to focus on the earliest contests and slight the later ones. Obama, after all, was coming from behind. He had to win some of the early contests. If he had lost every state through Super Tuesday, it would have been all over for him. He therefore had a pretty strong reason to put everything he had into those states, and hope that whatever momentum he got would carry him through in places like Maine and Nebraska. Clinton, by contrast, only had to anticipate that Obama might win enough states to keep going to know that she had to focus on the post-Super Tuesday states. She has a lot less excuse for making this misjudgment than Obama did. But she made it, and he did not. That tells me something.

Obama has so far run a better campaign than Hillary and is very likely to be the next Dem nominee. That doesn't endear him to me a single bit, but I have to acknowldge that he's been playing his cards right. I'm still voting for Mac though. Mac should take ROmney as his veep to appease the right wing, then let loose all of the attack pit-bulls and send them against Obama.

I wouldn't want to see Romney as V.P.

I want him to stay far away from this impending train wreck. There is no way the G.O.P. is going to keep the white house this year unless something major happens with the Dem nominee.

Romney is a leader, he needs to run on his own steam.

Good piece on McCain (from Mr. Liberal Fascism himself):

But that raises an interesting and remarkably undiscussed question for McCain's detractors: Who are you really mad at? [...]

Conservatives supported Bush in 2000 for numerous reasons, including the fact that he seemed the best candidate to win back the White House. But one reason for his success in winning conservative support was that he just seemed like "one of us." He carried himself like a conservative. He spoke like a conservative. He was an evangelical Christian and pro-life Texan, who reassured much of the base by telegraphing that he was on the right side of the culture wars. As political positioning, this was brilliant stuff. Aesthetically, he played to the hearts of the right while politically he promised to be something of a centrist, almost Clintonian, president without the seedy soft-core porn baggage. [...]

But substantively, the differences between McCainism and Bushism are very narrow, and the question of who is more conservative is more open than many on the right are comfortable asking. Hence, projection and guilt might explain at least some of the venom toward McCain. A lot of powerful emotions can be conjured by the sentiment: "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."

I think he's being more than a little unfair to McCain, but he asks some good questions.

Just put my two cents into the equation. Not too many people at the polling station, but a steady trickle nonetheless. First time in a while that the VA primary meant anything. Campaigning was light this week, got phone calls from the McCain folks, Obama had quite a few radio spots, looked like Hillary had more TV commercials. Not too much roadside pollution, mainly Paul placards.

CNN is calling Virginia for Obama with 0% reporting. He must have won really big.

If Hillary doesn't get both Ohio and Texas with a decent lead she's sunk.

ya, their calling it 61% to 38% for obama right now

Option #1 Clinton wins big in TX etc., holds the superdelgates and ekes out a narrow win on the first ballot. She then picks Richardson as VPnom.

Result = McCain victory in close fought election, maybe as close as 2002.


Option #2 Clinton wins on superdelegates in convention, takes obama as running mate to keep enough superdelegates to win.

Result = anybody's guess


Option #3 Obama wins on 2nd plus convention ballot as delegates of all stripes bolt the Clinton candidacy. Obama takes Richardson or "neutral" dem as VPnom

Result = narrow win for Obama


Option #4 Obama wins on first round in convention with some superdelegates bolting Clinton for him.

Result = solid win for Obama


I consider this last option most likely.

http://www.vajoe.com/candidate_calculator.htm

This is a pretty good one. For some reason I got 94% with Huckabee even though I dislike him thoroughly. I got 89.9% with Mitt.

It doesn't tell you where you differ, just that you differ.

I can't seem to get the link to work, or I'd give it a try. :sweatdrop:

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Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff

http://www.vajoe.com/candidate_calculator.htm

This is a pretty good one. For some reason I got 94% with Huckabee even though I dislike him thoroughly. I got 89.9% with Mitt.

It doesn't tell you where you differ, just that you differ.

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