Graffiti Mafia [Concluded]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Husar

3. Kommodus does not mention any of his "methods" and calls Reenk suspicious.

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:inquisitive: Um, no I didn't. Can you point out where?

I included Reenk in my list of people whose writing styles might be said to match one of the styles used here. (He made a similar list and included me in it; I guess that's a judgement call.) I then immediately said that I didn't think kill descriptions were particularly reliable as evidence.

As for my methods, well, they take a bit longer than one round to acquire the necessary data. You do the math.

As for why I want no lynch, I already gave my reasons. On the other hand, it has been shown that accusing people for the purpose of generating discussion can be quite effective in drawing out the guilty, so I understand why not everyone will go along with me.

Vote:Proletariat

Midday vote count:

No-lynch 4 (Kommodus,JimBob, AggonyDuck, Ituralde)
GeneralH 3 (ultrawar, Reenk Roink,Csar)
Proletariat 3 (Sir Moody, Sir Boo, Warluster)
Sir Moody 2 (GeneralH, Proletariat)
Dutch_guy 1 (Al Khalifah)

Abstain 1 (Masy)

Vote: Reenk
We need more information from our townies than obscure pictograms- fun though they are. Also, the colorful writing style of the first kill makes me think of Reenk- he's known for his roleplaying and themes from prior games. Do I know he's mafia? Of course I dont, but we've got to start looking somewhere and he's my strongest suspicion atm.

not much voting going on...

Vote: No Lynch :laugh4:

Vote: No lynch

I'm not convinced of anything yet.

Hmmm. As usual, nothing definitive has emerged in round 1 (well nothing that is definitive in the moment, retrospection may teach us more).

25 survive.

Disco and his three moles.
3 Masons.
1 Soothsayer -- not exclusive with the above roles, so can't count it.
1+ "hidden" roles.

Of the 24 names in play, three are bad'uns, 3 are good'uns (though the number may be less now), and 1 or more are unknown quantities. The good guy/bad guy ratio is a tie. In fact, since the opening murders generated a better than 15% chance for the mafia to kill at least 1 of the Masons, it could be argued that the chances of lynching a mafia randomly are greater than the chances of lynching a townie.

Consider the perfect mafia scenario:

27 - 2 murdered = 25 (where we are now)
1 lynch yields 24

24 - 2 murdered = 22
1 lynch yields 21

21 - 2 murdered = 19
1 lynch yields 18

18 - 2 murdered = 16
1 lynched = 15

15 - 2 murdered = 13
1 lynched = 12

12 - 2 murdered = 10
1 lynched = 9

9 - 2 murdered = 7 [mafia win with 4-3 control]

EDIT: Note that 1 "no lynch" creates a 4-4 tie at this round, not a townie win. We'd have to forgoe 2 lynches to add a round. And that's forgoing pressure on the mafia too.


However, against the risk of decreasing our numbers further, 1 mafia kill will result in a halving of the murder rate. With this size of a field, a longer killing process will be incompatible with likely mafia victory.

So, with the chances of a random slightly more likely to get a mafioso than not [and no worse than equal even if all 3 masons live and breathe] than I think that "No Lynch" is not the best vote.

I'll VOTE: ABSTAIN for now -- but one of us should go.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sir Boo

After looking up the last mafia game Proletariat was in she did indeed spend most of the time making very few posts until she was killed. However in this mafia she seems to be behaving completely differently. By making a vast number of posts. For now, unless more evidence appears I will be voting...

Vote Proletariat

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Not true in the slightest, and Sir Moody has made the same claim.

The last mafia game I was in, I actually was mafia and kage exposed me in the first round, and I was killed quickly. The game before that, I gave Csar a run for his money in spamming the game thread.

My vote stays on Sir Moody, for pointing out a non-existent change in my gaming habits. Have to wonder about Boo now too, being an obvious bandwagoneer.

Vote: everyone but me.

Umpa lump dopedi do,
they are all out to get you

The townspeople discussed all day. Accusations were made and unmade. But in the end the town decided that the best course of action would be to lynch no one.

No-lynch 6 (Kommodus,JimBob, AggonyDuck, Ituralde,Sigurd,Husar)
GeneralH 3 (ultrawar, Reenk Roink,Csar)
Proletariat 3 (Sir Moody, Sir Boo, Warluster)
Sir Moody 2 (GeneralH, Proletariat)
Dutch_guy 1 (Al Khalifah)
Reenk Roink 1 (Xiahou)
EveryoneButMe 1 (discovery1)*

Abstain 2 (Masy,Seamus Fermanagh)
Not Voting 7 (Dutch_guy, Don Corleone,Husar, doc_bean, Peasant Phill Ignoramus, Divine Wind)


*I can find no record of this person in the game. Please see me about this.
***

Current status:

Killed (2):

Caius Flaminius
Kagemusha

Lynched(0):

Alive: (25):

discovery1
GeneralHankerchief
Proletariat
Dutch_Guy
Jimbob
Don Corleone
Seamus Fermanagh
Warluster
Xiahou
AggonyDuck
Sir Moody
Peasant Phill
Sigurd Fafnesbane
Ituralde
Husar
doc_bean
Reenk Roink
Kommodus
Sir Boo
Ultrawar
Al Khalifah
Ignoramus
Divine Wind
Masy
Csar

pm's please

damn, I'm to late to vote. Oh well no harm done. It wouldn't have mattered anyway as I couldn't have changed the result.

Is that the first time a town has ever been so stupid as to not lynch anyone? True, the chances of us killing one of the mafia are slim. But now two more villagers are guarenteed to die. Whereas if we had taken the risk and struck lucky, only one villager would die and we could then deduce who the other mafia were.

As it is, I'm annoyed that I've missed the vote again.

Just a side note, the mafia are making a statement killing off Kagemusha first up. Everyone knows of Kage's curse on the mafia, and it could be that the mafia are two veterens who are hoping to prove the curse wrong by winning with Kage dead.

Quote:

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Not true in the slightest, and Sir Moody has made the same claim.

The last mafia game I was in, I actually was mafia and kage exposed me in the first round, and I was killed quickly. The game before that, I gave Csar a run for his money in spamming the game thread.

My vote stays on Sir Moody, for pointing out a non-existent change in my gaming habits. Have to wonder about Boo now too, being an obvious bandwagoneer.

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Really? lets see shall we:

Mafia V
User Name Posts Sasaki Kojiro 175 Csar 120 Reenk Roink 76 Seamus Fermanagh 66 GeneralHankerchief 65 Kommodus 38 Husar 36 Craterus 30 Kagemusha 29 Crazed Rabbit 28 doc_bean 27 Xiahou 24 Dutch_guy 22 Sigurd Fafnesbane 19 Banquo's Ghost 19 AggonyDuck 17 Proletariat 16 discovery1 15 Don Corleone 15 Ignoramus 14 Silver Rusher 13 Pannonian 12 theRTWGuru 11 God's Grace 8 Masy 8 Destroyer of Hope 7 Zalmoxis 7 Divine Wind 6 Drisos 4 Hepcat 3 Sir Moody 3 Evil_Maniac From Mars 2 Myrddraal 1 UltraWar 1
so thats 16 out of 900+ posts (mine are low as i died in the first freaking round)

then we move onto
Rise of the Mob
User Name Posts Sasaki Kojiro 90 Reenk Roink 57 Csar 54 Don Corleone 50 Kagemusha 41 Sir Moody 38 Seamus Fermanagh 24 Peasant Phill 20 GeneralHankerchief 17 Xiahou 17 Sigurd Fafnesbane 15 Husar 13 discovery1 12 Hepcat 12 Dutch_guy 11 JimBob 8 Proletariat 8 Kommodus 7 Masy 6 UltraWar 5 Ignoramus 3 Silver Rusher 1 theRTWGuru 1 Warluster 1 Crazed Rabbit 1
out of 500+ posts you score - 8

the trend continues through out all the games you are invovled in - its highly unlike your past games to be throwing accusations around and generally playing like sasaki in the first round... that doesnt meen you are a mafia - it does meen you are playing differently...

I suspect given the patterns of killings - in that they took out one of our best mafia hunters - and the fact that the Godfather was allowed to choose his mafioso, I believe that at least 2 out of the 3 mafia will be experienced players and that at least one of these will have been a skilled mafioso before.

No lynch last round I don't think helped but perhaps the mafia will show their hand this round.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ignoramus

Whereas if we had taken the risk and struck lucky, only one villager would die and we could then deduce who the other mafia were.

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Just keep in mind that the reduction from two kills to one is not a valid prove that we have just lynched a Mafia. As stated in the rules the Mafia may choose not to kill. This means that they can just kill one guy after a lynching to convince us that the guy we just lynched was Mafia, maybe even discrediting the lyncheds claims for being a Stonemason or the soothsayer.
So don't read too much into a reduced number of Mafia kills, especially during the final stages of the game.

Well this was fast one for me.Another early death .I hope that the Masons will have some real powers to clear the mafia scum on the face of the earth. I will be remaining in the game even now that im dead since i didnt have any special role so my death wasnt a big blow for the town. Becouse the mafia was handpicked by Disco, i would think we are facing a combination of 1-2 experienced players and then some newbie who will remain under the radar. After reading the first round posts.Im not ready to point out yet finger towards anyone.

I would also remind folks that Disco, in picking his team, is aware of:

1. lurker advantages/disadvantages

2. who are the "lightning rods" of any mafia game

3. the value of communication that cannot be tracked (not nec on this forum)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ituralde

Just keep in mind that the reduction from two kills to one is not a valid prove that we have just lynched a Mafia. As stated in the rules the Mafia may choose not to kill. This means that they can just kill one guy after a lynching to convince us that the guy we just lynched was Mafia, maybe even discrediting the lyncheds claims for being a Stonemason or the soothsayer.
So don't read too much into a reduced number of Mafia kills, especially during the final stages of the game.

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In terms of the remaining number of mafia, you are quite correct. However, any reduction in the number of kills increases the number of lynchings that all mafia have to survive.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Many People

Vote: No Lynch

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:wall: :no: :shame:

Meh, too late.

Gah!

Why is everyone suddenly so sure that not lynching anyone was the wrong decision? Many valid arguments in favor of that decision were posted.

Let me ask you this: when has the town ever successfully lynched a Mafioso in the first round? We almost certainly would've only managed to take out an innocent person. Worst-case, we could've taken out a pro-town role.

Information was gathered, and hopefully this round the masons will be able to give us something useful, since apparently they have that ability. (The first message, if indeed it came from the masons, didn't contain any clues.)

Seamus posted the only valid argument in favor of lynching someone. In fact, I had already calculated his "perfect mafia scenario" and got the same results. I was originally going to argue in favor of lynching someone until I realized how unlikely that perfect scenario would be. (Also I counted the soothsayer among the pro-town roles, while he didn't.)

And BTW, if you don't like the decision but were too late to show up and change it, then here's my suggestion: show up and participate! More discussion does make a townie win more likely.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kommodus

And BTW, if you don't like the decision but were too late to show up and change it, then here's my suggestion: show up and participate! More discussion does make a townie win more likely.

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This is a paramount point -- and remember, fellow townies, we do not have Sasaki around to throw stuff into the game (love him or not, he does get things going).

Kommo:

The thing that bothers me most about the "No Lynch" is that we almost have to do it again in round 2 or round 3, otherwise the 1st round slowed us down without saving enough lives to add another round of discussion onto the end. Not Lynching in a two murder game must be done twice to affect gameplay (though not, of course, discussion).

Sigurd Fafnesbane was sleeping, dreaming of flowers and faeries like all good townspeople should. But at the front door, all was not well.

"ARE YOU SURE THIS IS THE RIGHT HOUSE, FLUFFY?" a man in a siut of armour was saying to his lizard. Fluffy looked at him in in an alarmed way.

"OH, CURSE ME ONLY BEING ALLOWED TO TALK IN CAPITOL LETTERS! CURSE CURSE CURSE!" the man started screaming, waking Sigurd up and causing him to look outside.

"oh gods, not that!" Sigurd thought, seeing the man in the suit of armour adn his lizard.

"any fate is worse than that" he thought and jupmed out the window to his death. Only itwas a short fall, and he only layed on the ground hurt.

The man in the suit of armour walked over to Sigurd.

"FEAR MY WRATH, VARLET" he said and stabbed Sigurd in the stomach with his sword.

"ANOTHER ONE DOWN, FLUFFY." the two walked away.

***

The town awoke to another dead body and another message on the wall:

Quote:

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''Townies, fear not for we are doing our best to rid you of this evil ! Feel free to call these numbers, anytime:
0800 2664 6662368 or, if that line is busy 0800 9275 87837. We are here to help, we must work together !''

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Next to this message is another message:

Quote:

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German guard of the German faith
Dream liberator of lebanon
The poles gave him wings
All gave him guilding.
And none use him now

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***

Killed (3):

Caius Flaminius
Kagemusha
Sigurd Fafnesbane

Lynched(0):

Alive: (24):

discovery1
GeneralHankerchief
Proletariat
Dutch_Guy
Jimbob
Don Corleone
Seamus Fermanagh
Warluster
Xiahou
AggonyDuck
Sir Moody
Peasant Phill
Ituralde
Husar
doc_bean
Reenk Roink
Kommodus
Sir Boo
Ultrawar
Al Khalifah
Ignoramus
Divine Wind
Masy
Csar

***

Let the voting begin!

I'll be travelling cross country tomorrow, don't know when I'll be able to check in, this will probably be a long lynching round.

Well only one kill. My guess is a mafioso missed his kill or used a special ability to write one of those graffiti messages.

Vote:Husar

Why do you wonder over such things Csar?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warluster

Why do you wonder over such things Csar?

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Well there's two graffiti's one must be a mafioso's.

Ok guys just to give you all some statitistics in the lynching...

There is 23 Lynchable people left----

Therefore there is 3 Mafia Mebers left = 13% Chance of Lynching

Therefore there is 4 Pro-Townine Roles = 17% Chance of Lynching

Therefore there is 16 Townies = 70% Chance of Lynching

(These proballilities have been rounded up/down)

This may seem quite bleak but i do still believe that lynching is the best option in round 2, now that we have some leads to go on...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sir Boo

Ok guys just to give you all some statitistics in the lynching...

There is 23 Lynchable people left----

Therefore there is 3 Mafia Mebers left = 13% Chance of Lynching

Therefore there is 4 Pro-Townine Roles = 17% Chance of Lynching

Therefore there is 16 Townies = 70% Chance of Lynching

(These proballilities have been rounded up/down)

This may seem quite bleak but i do still believe that lynching is the best option in round 2, now that we have some leads to go on...

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Lynch Husar.

Quote:

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German guard of the German faith
Dream liberator of lebanon
The poles gave him wings
All gave him guilding.
And none use him now

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two messages of wich only one is in the same style of the last. And it points without a doubt a finger towards Husar.
Are we entirely sure that a pro-towny left this message?

Hear me out
There are 3 mafiosi that can kill 2 townies each night. So one is sitting idly while two others do the killing. Isn't it possible that lazy number 3 twice sprayed the grafitti and that the 1 kill/2 grafitti last night was a diversion so we would think that the rhyme was authentic?
You have to admit that if the maffia tried to fool us with the that other message, it did a crappy job. To crappy maybe.

So for now:
Vote: Abstain
Let's see what you all think.