Hearthstone Mafia [Concluded]

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Originally Posted by Dp101

I sort of like this post, a decent amount.

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Dp, you might not be able to answer until after daystart, but what about this post did you like?

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Good post and good reaction. You seem townish. A Mafia GH would likely not have jumped into this very weird post of mine, but avoided it. What else. Monty seems interested.+town. Manasi similarly, but could also be a confused scum player. Town for now. Csargo and Logic, no reaction. Scum? Connection? DP101 also sensing oddity of the post. Seems good. But, El Barto, talking about me, but not to me. Do i sense a suggestion for others pointing at my post, while not committing really. Best vote by far now: Unvote and Vote: El Barto

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Originally Posted by Csargo

There was no point in reacting, you've basically condensed down what has happened so far, which is basically nothing, and made it into a list. I don't think there's much to say really.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Ok. Thank you for the answer. :yes:

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I don't think this is particularly partner-y from Csargo and Kage, it seems like Kage is doing his own thing, Csargo sort of shades it, and Kage goes "ok thanks for noticing but I'm not done yet, thanks for the extra data point in the meantime." I feel like, were Kage and Csargo paired, this conversation either wouldn't have taken place or it would have a greatly altered form.

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Originally Posted by Sooh

Manasi, I don't know if you read the flip posts at all, but I'm literally mod confirmed IC.

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Yeah I didn’t know that I posted shade on you I was also quite drunk lmao.

Think most people would be able to tell I’m incredibly far out of my mafia range right now. It could be as easy as Dp/Csargo or something but if Dp flips town I’m gonna fuckin’ go guns blazing at Kage.

Those posts weren’t shit don’t be mean :(

Manasi, here's what I articulated about Kage in Chess (ignore the fact that I was mafia in that game, it was still a legitimate read):

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

I'm most confident with my read on Kage, probably due to the whole "we've been playing together for 11 years thing". :tongue: Kage as scum, while he can certainly get down in the trenches when he needs to, tends to default more to the "consensus builder" type where he skates by, is friendly with everyone, and then cuts your throat at night. Town Kage says what's on his mind and I think there's a marked less concern for his own survival. I actually think he's lynched more as town than as mafia.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

There's like. A 25% chance that I switch it up to Dp and make it go 2/2/2.

Maybe.

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Originally Posted by Csargo

Vote:Dp101

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Originally Posted by Zack

Official Tally as of #125

3 El Barto (Montmorency, Kagemusha, GeneralHankerchief)

2 Montmorency (Dp101/Snerk, Manasi)
2 Dp101 (Logic, Csargo)

1 Manasi (El Barto)

Not Voting: Sooh

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So... this is looking pretty good for Dp. I had just articulated the fact that I could move to Dp, I'm very well known for vote shifts around EOD... and Csargo goes after Dp, putting him in danger. This was both my and Csargo's final posts before EOD, so if I had pulled a CHAOS CHAOS CHAOS then Csargo would have lost a buddy.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Why did you think Barto was scum?

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Originally Posted by Csargo

I mean there was never any reason to vote Barto imo, I have no idea wth happened here.

feels $ sudo man...

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Who do you think looks bad on his wagon then?

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Originally Posted by Csargo

All of them. Monty is probably more suspicious to me than GH/Kage, but it's pretty close. Probably should have voted him over Dp101, but mistakes were made.

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Here's a Manasi/Csargo exchange from the start of N1. I wouldn't go as far to say it's partnery, but it's definitely not "not partnery".

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Originally Posted by Csargo

Unfortunate, and here I thought this was a game of discourse, but apparently it's a game of vague statements that are indecipherable.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

This is generally the impression I get from the thread overall btw. Honestly only people I feel confident townreading are Csargo and Manasi.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Hi Dp101! What do you base your confidence about Csargo and Manasi?

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Both are obviously engaged with the game and feel like they are genuinely interested in solving the game, rather than just going through the motions.

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Csargo/Dp/Kage.

I'm basically not commenting on this stuff at this point, just dumping it for reference.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

DP can you do me a favor and read Kage's posts for me and tell me what you think? There isn't really a lot there so it should be easy.

Need more reads itt and less random stuff.

Funny coming from me, isn't it?

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Originally Posted by Dp101

I mean I think his posting style is bizarre and I don’t understand it, but that’s been true any time I’ve played with him, so not really sure if I know how to read him.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

I did some legwork during last day phase. It just did not bear fruit at least yet. Did you not understand what i tried to achieve, which i explained to GH already. As you suggest that there is lot of beef to work with. I am all ears. (Btw i hate posting with cell as im couple hundred km from home.)

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Is this the legwork you were referring to?

When I look at this it just comes across as summary and rhetorical questions that nobody ever answered. How is that actual work? Especially if you haven't yielded anything from it?

Is the only reason you voted on Barto because he didn't directly address you? That's what it's seeming.

You and GH both decided your lynch based on a POE.

You had the following:

Town: Manasi, Monty, GH

Mafia: Csargo, Logic

Which left a POE of Barto and Sooh (who has addressed you // you have made no effort to respond to)

Although she has a town read on you for "being intense" or whatever, that in no case would have much of a tell on her own alignment.

I just don't understand why you made the decision that you did when it seemed like Barto was at least interacting well with other people and someone like Sooh fluffed and posted ever so sporadically (no offense Sooh, think you're > rand town but I would have voted you over Barto if given the choice).

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Manasi's looked good in this game re: tone and pushes and whatnot, but she probably has the worst associatives.

So let's summarize the above.

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My track bought us one phase of time. We have six living players, five once I'm killed, one of whom is mafia. We have two chances to get this right. Assuming I'm dead, we'll have Sooh, Logic, Kage, Manasi, and Dp alive. In a perfect world, we can clear three of these people and the game will be locked.

Sooh is mechanically clear. That's one.

Logic, I think, is clear. I think he's out of his scum range, though I would like to see him continue posting and not just coast off this. There's a possibility he may have been able to change his meta between Chess and now, but everything in that Pizza iso says that's just not who Logic is as a person, so I think it's more likely we're just seeing town!Logic here. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but he also deserves to win the game if this is the case. So that's two.

The third is harder and I can't do it with confidence, so I leave it to you guys.

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Dp101 has been generally unimpressive all game, which I think he'd freely admit to. I just want to see more from him. There are two things in his favor: First, the fact that Csargo voted him late on D1 when I was threatening to also do so, which would have put Dp in the outright lead. Second, this post, which was his initial reaction to seeing my claim. If he's mafia there, the "if you're lying, I'm coming after you tomorrow" is unnecessary and well done - to me it smacks of good townie paranoia. However, the more I think about it, I'm turning around theories in my head of Dp giving Csargo the OK to bus him there on D1 especially if he realizes that he won't be able to contribute much and it would hold up well throughout the game. So as much as I'd like to, I can't clear Dp for Csargo's treatment of him there.

Manasi has had really good tone throughout the game, bringing energy and drive to move the game forward. It's a big mark in her favor for sure. However, as I discussed in an earlier post, she has the worst associatives of the Big Three. Kage and Csargo were mutually scumreading each other to some extent, and Csargo also has that Dp vote near EOD1 that I just talked about. In a game of this size and this activity level, where we're all friends, if you roll mafia with somebody would you try to bus them or would you want to work with them, keep each other alive, and laugh as the town shoots itself in the foot? In addition, I think Manasi's subtly been twisting some of the facts in this game to suit her narrative: for example shading my EOD1 process when I clearly laid it out in a POE here, or saying how Csargo didn't really push on Kage here when literally the post right before that one was her quoting Csargo's reads list where he had Kage at the very bottom.

Kage has probably been the biggest point of contention throughout the entire game. A lot of people have been pushing him for generally strange posting from the very start, which, yeah, that very first summary of his wasn't good, and his process to solve the game hasn't been particularly easy to follow. That said, I think he has pretty good associatives. Both Csargo and a likely partner went after Kage over the course of the game, and - as Kage has been quick to point out - he was really the only one suspicious of Csargo before I came out with my track result. Here is where he first outlined these suspicions. Csargo immediately fired back, but the argument didn't really go anywhere and quickly dissipated. The thing that makes me pause is both that, and the fact that Kage never actually made a case on Csargo, like he did on Manasi. Kage is a very good scum player and thrives in this kind of environment, so I wouldn't put it past him to cast some low-level suspicion on his buddy while still making sure the main focus stayed elsewhere.

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So that's where I'm at. This is probably going to be my last post, and it's going to come down to the rest of you guys to get this right. You're going to have to talk it out and interact with each other. All three candidates have pluses and minuses, and hopefully I've done a decent job of laying them out.

It's been fun, all. Happy Easter and good luck. :bow:

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Dp, you might not be able to answer until after daystart, but what about this post did you like?

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The Kage read, mostly. Felt like mafia would just make the read and move on, not talk about how odd it was.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Think most people would be able to tell I’m incredibly far out of my mafia range right now. It could be as easy as Dp/Csargo or something but if Dp flips town I’m gonna fuckin’ go guns blazing at Kage.

Those posts weren’t shit don’t be mean :(

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Agree fully, I have no idea what kage is doing, this feels completely different to past games, making me decently confident in him not being town.

Not quoting because mobile, but I find it weird how in GH’s big wall on everyone my posts with actual analysis in them are ignored, and instead the only post that gets picked up is barely 2 sentences. Probably nothing, but, there’s a tiny part of me that feels like the possibility of GH fpsing and bussing is not out of the question.

End of Night 2


GeneralHankerchief was killed.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

He was mafia!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

:laugh4:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Should the competitive community ban Nat Pagle?

What's sad is that back then, Blizzard nerfed a card that was going to nerf itself as time went on.

https://i.imgur.com/B2GZQ5E.png

:fishing:

GeneralHankerchief, you are Nat Pagle.

:7scubadiver:

The purpose of Nat Pagle is to gain a draw advantage over your opponent while acting as a wall. He is fairly hard to kill early game (turn 2) and, throughout the game, can give a large advantage to the player who controls him. If used well he can be buffed and will be a great resource all game long. This card also works exceptionally well after being stealthed in a rogue deck.

You are the Town Odd-Night Tracker.

On odd nights (Night 1, 3, 5, etc.), track another player to see whom they visit, if anyone.

You win when both of the mafia are eliminated.

Good luck, have fun, read the rules, PM me with any questions.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Nerf History!

• Patch 1.0.0.4944 (2014-03-11): Now reads: At the start of your turn, you have a 50% chance to draw an extra card. Previously read: At the end of your turn, you have a 50% chance to draw a card.
• Patch 1.0.0.3388 (2013-06-22): Now has 4 Health, down from 5.^[2]

Living Players: 5
@Dp101
@Kagemusha
@Logic
@Manasi
@Sooh

It is now Day Three.

Voting ends in:

You can post now.

Well, honestly not sure where to go from here. Logic is probably clear, I trust Manasi, sooh is IC so I guess Kage is all I have? Going to wait a bit for others to weigh in first, before I vote anyone.

GH is right to want to put more pressure on me. If I am mafia, I will crack. I think Chess was my only Org mafia game, but Pizza and GH were not wrong about my mafia tells. If you think I've gotten leagues better in the span of one game, I'm flattered, but I don't think anyone can change their performance level that much, that quickly.

Just don't spend all your time examining me. Statistically, you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting the last mafia by guesswork alone.

I'll have more to add on Monday, but right now I feel like Dp is a touch worse than Kage, and Manasi feels very town to me.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Not quoting because mobile, but I find it weird how in GH’s big wall on everyone my posts with actual analysis in them are ignored, and instead the only post that gets picked up is barely 2 sentences. Probably nothing, but, there’s a tiny part of me that feels like the possibility of GH fpsing and bussing is not out of the question.

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Bussing?

He's a flipped villager dude.

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Originally Posted by Logic

GH is right to want to put more pressure on me. If I am mafia, I will crack. I think Chess was my only Org mafia game, but Pizza and GH were not wrong about my mafia tells. If you think I've gotten leagues better in the span of one game, I'm flattered, but I don't think anyone can change their performance level that much, that quickly.

Just don't spend all your time examining me. Statistically, you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting the last mafia by guesswork alone.

I'll have more to add on Monday, but right now I feel like Dp is a touch worse than Kage, and Manasi feels very town to me.

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Yep, that's basically where I am. Feel bad that the game is locked in my head but I'll try to keep an open mind and reevaluate.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Bussing?

He's a flipped villager dude.

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He was not flipped at the time of that post.

Sooh, what's your order of preference?

Assuming for a second that we get it wrong today, the remaining mafia has the best chance to kill you tonight, because then tomorrow it is LYLO with 3 people that are not cleared. That's not a position I want to be in tomorrow: I think I have a 0% town record at LYLO.

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Originally Posted by Zack

Day One, Final Tally

:skull: 3 El Barto (Montmorency, Kagemusha, GeneralHankerchief)

2 Montmorency (Dp101/Snerk, Manasi)
2 Dp101 (Logic, Csargo)

1 Manasi (El Barto)

Not Voting: Sooh

Do not post!

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Originally Posted by Zack

d2 Final Tally

3 Csargo (Dp101, GH, Kage)

1 Dp101 (Logic)

Not Voting: Csargo, Manasi, Sooh

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Vote: Kage

I don't see the remaining mafia NOT bussing in an outed scenario, which leads me to believe that Manasi is less likely than DP or Kage. EOD votes on D1 lead me to believe that the wagon was not all Town, and that leaves Kage. The reasoning isn't airtight, but GH came to this conclusion before me. He also shaded Dp quite a bit, so I am not confident on this, but I think Kage is the more likely mafia here.

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Originally Posted by Logic

Vote: Kage

I don't see the remaining mafia NOT bussing in an outed scenario, which leads me to believe that Manasi is less likely than DP or Kage. EOD votes on D1 lead me to believe that the wagon was not all Town, and that leaves Kage. The reasoning isn't airtight, but GH came to this conclusion before me. He also shaded Dp quite a bit, so I am not confident on this, but I think Kage is the more likely mafia here.

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Yeah the mafia had to bus. They're not in the two confirmed people off wagon and it's not in AFK me.

I don't think you'd end up on a random wagon when someone's outted as mafia either.

I think the POE of Kage/Dp is solid so you're fine in LYLO.

If you're mafia you've already won ecks dee.

THAT BEING SAID, mafia probably hops onto the wagon after the claim as opposed to before the claim.

Right?

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Logic, I'm willing to entertain the notion that Kage could be mafia, but not the one that I'm his partner for obvious reasons. Could you present a feasible alternative?

Csargo, you're given a gun with one shot. Who do you kill?

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Originally Posted by Csargo

Kage I think at this point.

My PoE is something like this atm:

Csargo
Sooh
Logic
Manasi
Dp101/GH
Kage

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This does not look good for Manasi or me. This is well before Csargo was outed, but even if I was mostly clear, I don't think I'd put my partner at the bottom or second from bottom of a suspicion list.

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Originally Posted by Logic

Responding to Manasi's query. I'm not convinced that Kage did a whole lot of legwork in the day-phase, but maybe I'm missing the forest for the trees. I saw one attempt to ferret out mafia that didn't work all that well, and Kage agrees that his plan didn't return any positive results.

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During my ISO of Kage, I said the above, and Csargo followed with this:

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Originally Posted by Csargo

I'd put [GH] higher than Dp101 purely because I can get a better read on [GH] going forward than I can Dp101.

I feel fairly good about Logic currently, because his most recent stuff is pretty inline with what I remember from other games. I had him way lower initially, but his current engagement/posts have been excellent imo.

Manasi feels good at this point.

I think I'm usually pretty good at reading you, but that's probably wrong. You going along with the Barto vote so easily sort of put me off a bit. Nothing you've done since has raised my read of you all that much.

Dp101 is sort of meh hard to gauge with so little coming out from him.

Kage's summary post was odd to me, but that seems to be par for the course for D1 lists. Thought the Barto push was weird, I clearly wasn't a fan.

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Originally Posted by Logic

Responding to Manasi's query. I'm not convinced that Kage did a whole lot of legwork in the day-phase, but maybe I'm missing the forest for the trees. I saw one attempt to ferret out mafia that didn't work all that well, and Kage agrees that his plan didn't return any positive results.

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I think Logic's quote sums up my thoughts on Kage pretty well.

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When there are only 2 wolves, is the best play to shade your partner, when only two other people have a strong read on him? This is making me second guess my Kage vote, and look at Manasi a little bit more. Sooh, Dp, your thoughts on this?

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Originally Posted by Logic

This does not look good for Manasi or me. This is well before Csargo was outed, but even if I was mostly clear, I don't think I'd put my partner at the bottom or second from bottom of a suspicion list.
During my ISO of Kage, I said the above, and Csargo followed with this:

When there are only 2 wolves, is the best play to shade your partner, when only two other people have a strong read on him? This is making me second guess my Kage vote, and look at Manasi a little bit more. Sooh, Dp, your thoughts on this?

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Don't go down this road.

I'm probably objectively the worst looking when it comes to interactions with Csargo, but you know as much as anyone on this game that this is probably the most engaged/involved I've been in a game on this site. I don't know if you think that would speak to my town equity or mafia equity, but I think it's something to be noted and used for a read as opposed to just my interactions with one of my friends while the thread was deceased.

Previous ISO here

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Thank you for the ISO Logic. Like i said earlier if you are scum. You are playing extremely well. Your process seems very good, but conclusion is wrong. You build a case against me based on connection with GH, which you seem to be doubting very much in your Iso. So you seem to be arriving into wrong conclusion with genuine thought process, unlike Manasi who seems to be trying to use momentum in order to push who she wants to be lynched. I want to hear from the only confirmed townie aka Sooh before pushing what i have in mind.

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He's not wrong about me possibly coming to the wrong conclusions; I do it all the time, and had Sooh and Monty on my scum shortlist. But here, if Kage is Village, he is looking only at Manasi.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Good job GH! So my hunch about Csarco was right while i was wrong about Barto. I still havent lost it.Vote:Csargo

If Csargo flips scum we definetely have sometihng to work with.:2thumbsup:

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Reaction to GH's outing Csargo. This could be faked just as easily as be genuine. I'm calling this null.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Vote Csargo. GH has claimed to be some sort of tracker/ detective and painted Csargo scum. Its the absolutely best we have so far. If Csargo does not flip scum. We will lynch GH next.

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Since the end of my previous ISO, this is the only time Kage mentions or talks to Dp. I think this is telling, and it looks scummy.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

I am staunch believer of the KISS principle. If you have the most simple answer to a dilemma use it. Only if the solution is not working, find more complicated one. At this point lynching Csargo should be a no brainer. The mathematics are on the town side. No matter if GH was pulling a straight forward stupid stunt as a scum now and fake claiming a role. The town would still get a scum and afterwards the numbers would be at towns side.

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Not entirely wrong, but not completely true either.
Hypothetical: If GH had been scum pulling a 1-for-1 trade, then we would have lynched a "clear" town!Csargo, nabbed scum!GH today with no real discussion to progress the game, and still be at lylo tomorrow. Maybe this is a derp!Kage, but I find this wolfish.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Good thinking GH.When you come through, which i believe as i dont see you as bad scum player and this what you are doing is essentially suicide if Csargo comes out town. If that is indeed the case im looking at two people. Logic, whom Csargo seemed to act in concert day one and Manasi, who is either lazy or scum.

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Manasi bears more investigation, but off the top of my head, I don't read her game as lazy. Still not even glancing at Dp.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

GH. Look at the day 1 Logic and compare to the rest of the game. Day 1 he is bantering with Csargo, easy stuff for mafia and also voting DP with Csargo which does not lead to a lynch. After that Logic´s game is solid. Doing Iso´s and being very analythical. Between Manasi and Logic, at this point i would go with Manasi, but there is a dent at Logic, which should be pursued.

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Not entirely consistent: as of this ISO, he says I am doing really well if I am scum, but he switches gears a little bit on me. Still tunneling Manasi. But, is there a reason you aren't so much as looking at Dp?

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

And this is exactly what you have been doing the entire game. Evading and not answering anything. Please do elaboarete to my question before. I would really appreciate that.:yes:

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More Shading/tunneling Manasi.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Then share those reads.

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Manasi responds about GH pushing her and Csargo (her town read.) Not much to say about that without doing Manasi's complete ISO.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Ok. Thank you very much Manasi for that insight. Im now going to leave the keyboard and go play some pool with friends and have a go at being day time drunken, while not being at bar for more then 6 months. If i post something even more strange tonight compared to my usual. Its booze talking. Im a happy man. :bow:

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So, Kage signs out for the night to attend to RL stuff. His next 3 are in quick succession.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Im hung over and not feeling too much for posting anything. But i say that both posts above this one of mine are **** posts. You cant discredit me both ways do it or dont. I found Csargo and i found you as well.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Sorry three posts above mine are **** posts and that is what they are.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Vote: Manasi

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All the posts he is referring to belong to Manasi, and he ends with a vote at night. I am beginning to see what he was saying of Manasi, so her ISO is next on my list. DP, you get a reprieve for the moment; you've moved up a slot because I am now questioning my Manasi read.

If Kage is a villager, he is tunneling on Manasi, perhaps unfairly so. If Kage is Mafia, forcing a mislynch on Manasi today might be his best path to victory.

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Originally Posted by Logic

Sooh, what's your order of preference?

Assuming for a second that we get it wrong today, the remaining mafia has the best chance to kill you tonight, because then tomorrow it is LYLO with 3 people that are not cleared. That's not a position I want to be in tomorrow: I think I have a 0% town record at LYLO.

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I'd really like for this not to come down to me. That being said I've been a lazy bum all day and should probably look into things a bit more. 340 posts and 4 players to look into, so way less than that. I think I can come up with that wim. I'll get started.

I don't really think this is scum!Manasi. She's nothing like how I remember her previous scum game. I also don't think Manasi would place her partner here in her reads list
vv

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Originally Posted by Manasi

I think that we're kind of similar in terms of reads. I think that DP and Logic are probably my top towns.

Main difference is that I think all of the scum are in Sooh, yourself, Monty, and Kage.

Csargo is posting well, I agree, so I'd give him a town read for that.

I still haven't shook the tinfoil that wolves can just put it effort and be better than most of the town so I don't know how confident I'm gonna be going through the rest of the game at all, but that's where I am.

Why "clear" Kage for the lynch but push Barto who was obviously having more fun than like ~most of the thread?

I know you said you can probably figure his alignment out etc, but can't you also do that for Barto? I feel like his alignment isn't that hard to place.

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I know she gave that piece of self-meta herself, but it just reads a bit strange to me. Why would she single him out like that?

I feel like she's been appealing to me quite a lot this game though (mainly because I haven't been posting and generally not helped anyone at all). I am not sure if scum Manasi does that after I nailed her to the wall in her last scum game here. I would think that scum!Manasi would be happy I wasn't in the thread tbh.

Then again I know you're a good player and probably very capable of fooling me, but I'm not willing to lynch you today, and I'm assuming that I'll die N3, so I'll leave that problem to somebody else.

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Originally Posted by Logic

I gotta say, I am "thanking" Csargo more than I thought I would have. I'm going to guess it is based upon our having a similar sense of humor.

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I find this and subsequent posts by the two of them very unlikely for mafia partners to make in the thread.

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Originally Posted by Logic

Very vague buckets:

Townish
Logic - Myself, naturally I am going to say I am town.
Manasi - seems townier than usual, and I usually suspect Manasi early and often.
Sooh - Feels natural; I can detect no hidden agenda.

Nullish
Csargo - Right now, I'm wearing blinders on him.
Kagemusha - "Bating" for reaction sounds good, but it's also I might do in a followup game if I were scum.

Scumish
El Barto - Slightly confused by the 848% earlier, but I'm assuming it was a typo not something sinister. His coded flavor-text may be what is pinging my scum-dar, but I can't identify why he feels less than genuine this early.
Monty - Seeing his last game has made me super wary of him, and he is in my "usual suspects" bucket until proven otherwise.
GeneralHankerchief - Too little content to base anything on. But I could see a "chaos³" GH this early.
Snerk/Dp101 - Snerk/Dp101 have given little to go on, but I can't find a real reason to vote elsewhere yet.

---

Null-reading a partner isn't unheard of though.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Logic

Wait; Innocent Child? That doesn't seem to fit with the Hearthstone theme at all. I'm not mechanically clearing Sooh just yet.

---

This is adorable and kind of derp clearing.

Not really feeling a Logic lynch today either. We'll see after I've read the two last.

Snerk basically only voted jokes when he was around, so I'm going to discount that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dp101

This is generally the impression I get from the thread overall btw. Honestly only people I feel confident townreading are Csargo and Manasi.

---

Could be a partner post I guess. He was responding to a Csargo post at the time though, so I'm unsure.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dp101

This post is odd and wolfy, imo. Once I recall voting format I might put one here.

---

Why was that Kage post odd and wolfy?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dp101

Welp, lolme. Ignore everything I just said in my last post. Vote: Csargo

If you lied about this, I'm coming for your head tomorrow.

---

With the level of reaction that was given to GH's suss post of Dp I'm not sure I buy him just trusting GH at face value here. I know I didn't.

The subsequent spew finding effort also seems to me at least to be a flailing attempt to find two more mislynches in a very small pool (myself and GH were already clear, so he sussed first Manasi and then Logic).

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dp101

Moar attempted spew-reading attempts, since I never do this and need to get better at it, and the play is imo clearer if GH is lying so I see more value in trying to catch the scum after Csargo:

The logic read feels somewhat like providing support to a scumbuddy who has improved dramatically and trying to push that point into people's heads. If logic was town here, I feel like scum!csargo would be focussing on lacklustre prior actions rather than trying to paint a picture of improvement.

Vague Manasi read is *noted*, but not sure exactly what it means.

Tries to discredit kage via logic, in a way that strikes me as honestly weird regardless of alignment. Leaving aside the part where it's honestly fairly wrong, I'm not sure what incentive there is as either alignment to make this push based off of logic's. This would make town!logic somewhat more likely, but it's also possible that this is a wolf-team coordinating somewhat clumsily to push a mislynch (although why they wouldn't go on me is a mystery to me).

---

I just added one of the posts I think is an example of flailing.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dp101

Well, honestly not sure where to go from here. Logic is probably clear, I trust Manasi, sooh is IC so I guess Kage is all I have? Going to wait a bit for others to weigh in first, before I vote anyone.

---

And this is where that whole read is ???

If Dp is scum here he knows he has to find two mislynches to win. He has one listed, though I guess the next logical (lol) thing to do is to go for the "probably clear" person next.

Idk, Dp, enlighten me perhaps?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sooh

This is adorable and kind of derp clearing.

Not really feeling a Logic lynch today either. We'll see after I've read the two last.

---

Logic is never cleared unless derp-cleared.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Ok. Lets see.

Barto, votes DP101 for no reason, DP101 is not in the game at least yet. Then votes: Manasi

Logic , votes El Barto for "joke" reasons, Then votes Snerk for "genetic" reasons.

Monty , votes No Lynch.

Sooh, votes Snerk for having too much fun.

Snerk, votes Monty for not being all business.

Csargo, votes Sooh for Zelda reasons.

Tally:
Snerk 2 votes
Manasi 1 votes
El Barto 1 votes
Monty 1 votes
Sooh 1 votes
No Lynch 1 votes

Conclusion. Completely and utterly nothing as of yet. Vote: GH. Because i want to hear from you. It has been far too long. :yes:

---

This post was weird, and I said so at the time. Generally speaking I think that people who try to jumpstart a game into serious mode often are wolves, just because they don't want to be accused later on in the game for not taking things seriously. Then again, that's a generic read which has nothing to do with Kage, and while I haven't played with him a lot I think he tends to be pushed for generic tells and be mislynched because of them quite a lot, so I'm going to file it under NAI.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Sorry Barto. Back to the drawing board. Logic, What are you basing that theory?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Hi Dp101! What do you base your confidence about Csargo and Manasi?

---

I like the specific digging of those two posts. They weren't "What are your reads and why?" (though he did have one of those as well), but indicated that he wanted to dig a bit deeper.

I dunno. I think I like Kage here.

I think I am probably leaning towards a Dp lynch today if nothing changed.

If I'm wrong I still don't think it's Manasi, but Kage and Logic are sort of a toss-up for me after that.

Still got more than 24h though, so I'm going to hold off on my vote for a bit and see if anything changes.

Manasi has got a lot to parse through, so she gets a truncated version of an ISO. He is Day and Night 1.

Manasi ISO

DAY 1

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

First!!!!!! Wowowowowoww Manasi goat

---

Null

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Damn this is a lot slower than I anticipated. Inclined to vote Monty but I just landed an hour ago and have like 9 hours of class starting soon (tm).

I’m gonna die today.

---

25 player posts and 18ish hours into the game, and this is Manasi's second post. I play on the Org becasue most games move slower than anything on MU, so I'm not sure what she is expecting at this point. I can't help but wonder why she is commenting on this at this point if she doesn't have time to do a cursory read.
[-] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

I think Kage posting that random wall was like.

Bizarre.

It was a lot of recap that didn't come to anything which I don't blame given the lack of any content but it also seemed like a pretty weirdly misplaced cliffs post.

---

Kage's wall doesn't look that weird to me, as it looks like something I would do. But consensus seems to be that it is an odd thing to do, albeit within Kage's town meta.
[+] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Sooh whatcha thinking?

I think I have more reads now than I usually do in any game on MU lmao.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

GH's one post is also pretty underwhelming.

This is rough.

---

Here she has more reads than MU, but still says this is rough in back to back posts. ~:confused:
[-] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

This isn't a good post how dare you do this.

---

Responding to Monty with a joke. Null

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

In what world does that give you a read on him?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Vote: Montmorency

---

Back-to-back posts. Responding to GH changing his vote from Monty to Barto.

Barto lynched.


NIGHT 1

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

POSTCOUNT READS NotLikeThis

GH wyd bro El Barto wasn't mafia there feelsgrossman

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Why did you think Barto was scum?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

If I say I want to kill GH he's gonna go postal.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

But I wanna kill GH.

---

Triple back-to-back. If it weren't for the fact that GH later claims tracker, I might call this telegraphing. I feel like Scum Manasi likes to gloat and drop clues.
[-] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Monty calling me lock town is :sleeping:

---

~:confused::undecided: This looks like the gloating Scum!Manasi I mentioned.
[-] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Who do you think looks bad on his wagon then?

---

Responding to Csargo. Csargo shaded everyone on the wagon, claiming Monty looked worse than GH and Kage.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Even suggesting you'd take my read on Barto as anything seriously is kinda funny, you'd typically just brush it off.

I think that your scum read on him was baseless, think he was being more relevant than most people and there were infinitely scummier people.

---

Responds to GH's "postal" picture. This doesn't look much like a town response to me. This looks like "I was right about Barto, and you weren't."
[-] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

You're asking a lot of questions and not making a lot of statements.

Can you change that for me?

So far from what I can tell you see myself/GH town and like, a bunch of random null reads as your scum?

I feel like there's enough in this thread to get to a point where you're past those level 1 reads that you had earlier yesterday.

Give me something.

---

Responding to Kage, who is talking about her and Csargo to Dp. Manasi makes a fair point about Kage asking a bunch of questions without saying much otherwise.
[+] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

That probably suggests you're going to live to the next day phase lmao

---

Csargo mentions he doesn't feel confident about living, and this is Manasi's response.
[-] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Does GH try and control things when there's already a solid mislynch set up and a bunch of villagers not posting? Don't think he'd out himself/his scum meta if he doesn't have to.

Why do you think he's more towny?

What other reads do you have?

---

Replying to Sooh, about Scum!GH taking direct control of things. Her comment's read like she knows GH better than nsooh does, or at leasts understands Scum!GH's process better. But her follow-up questions don't look like town!Manasi probing; they looks like wolf!Manasi probing for weaknesses to exploit.
[-]town points.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Probably nothing because your question was pretty dumb.

---

Replying to Monty, who was responding to Csargo. I thought it was funny at first, but seeing the root is Scum!Csargo, this looks less normal. I'm not willing to give this comment a lean just yet.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

DP can you do me a favor and read Kage's posts for me and tell me what you think? There isn't really a lot there so it should be easy.

Need more reads itt and less random stuff.

Funny coming from me, isn't it?

---

Replying to Dp. Not sure what she is getting to here.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

See, this is the worst part.

In a thread with such little activity and posting and reads, all mafia really needs to do is post anything worth a shit and they're probably close to cleared.

(In writing this post I mean to say that I'm super townreading Logic but I don't know if I should be.)

---

If scum, this was a really good job of pocketing me. I should be more careful with these types of posts.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

I was pretty hype for this game (still kinda am) and nobody else is. Every site is either full of thousands of posts or just 14 of mine.

Feelsbadman.

---

The end of 7 back-to-back posts. I get her frustration at the end, and if it were not Manasi, I would wonder if someone posting 7 times in quick succession was a sign of someone trying to steer the conversation.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Is this the legwork you were referring to?

When I look at this it just comes across as summary and rhetorical questions that nobody ever answered. How is that actual work? Especially if you haven't yielded anything from it?

Is the only reason you voted on Barto because he didn't directly address you? That's what it's seeming.

You and GH both decided your lynch based on a POE.

You had the following:

Town: Manasi, Monty, GH

Mafia: Csargo, Logic

Which left a POE of Barto and Sooh (who has addressed you // you have made no effort to respond to)

Although she has a town read on you for "being intense" or whatever, that in no case would have much of a tell on her own alignment.

I just don't understand why you made the decision that you did when it seemed like Barto was at least interacting well with other people and someone like Sooh fluffed and posted ever so sporadically (no offense Sooh, think you're > rand town but I would have voted you over Barto if given the choice).

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

* In reading all of this I also wasn't able to figure out what you were trying to achieve.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

HOW DO I CLEAR THIS FUCKIN MULTIQUOTE

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

I think that we're kind of similar in terms of reads. I think that DP and Logic are probably my top towns.

Main difference is that I think all of the scum are in Sooh, yourself, Monty, and Kage.

Csargo is posting well, I agree, so I'd give him a town read for that.

I still haven't shook the tinfoil that wolves can just put it effort and be better than most of the town so I don't know how confident I'm gonna be going through the rest of the game at all, but that's where I am.

Why "clear" Kage for the lynch but push Barto who was obviously having more fun than like ~most of the thread?

I know you said you can probably figure his alignment out etc, but can't you also do that for Barto? I feel like his alignment isn't that hard to place.

---

4 more back-to-back posts

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

If I don't die N1 I might go crazy if this thread tempo keeps up.

@mafia

---

This is something I swear I've seen Manasi do as Mafia. I don't recall this happening when she is town.
[-] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Hi nice to meet you I'm Manasi.

---

Joke response to Kage's query about aggressiveness. Null

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Hm, I just realized that I didn't put Dp in the post I wrote for Kage.

Whatever.

Sorry Dp.

---

Why would you? You are responding to Kage, not DP. How is DP concerned with a question that Kage asked of you?
[-] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

GH help him psychoanalyze me.

I love talking about myself but this is 2deep4me.

---

This doesn't seem like something a mafia would do. I read this as "tell them my secrets, GH."
[+] town points

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Meh. He's at least trying a little bit and relating to the frustration that I'm feeling I think.

I don't know how you can brush someone off after just one post.

Does not compuuuuuuute.

---

I misread this post initially. It's about GH "clearing" Monty based on the "no Lynch" vote Monty played. I like this; this seems like a townie reaction.
[+] town points

EON1: Monty Killed. Sooh cleared.

So, based on her D1 & N1, I'm pulling Manasi from my "likely townie" list. I'll finish her ISO later tonight. For those that want to pick up where I left off, post #222 where she laughs and bolds Kage's name is her first post of D2.

1 Kagemusha (Logic)

Not Voting: @Dp101, @Manasi, @Sooh

Not Posting: @Kagemusha

Voting ends in:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Logic

Manasi has got a lot to parse through, so she gets a truncated version of an ISO. He is Day and Night 1.

Manasi ISO

DAY 1

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Null
25 player posts and 18ish hours into the game, and this is Manasi's second post. I play on the Org becasue most games move slower than anything on MU, so I'm not sure what she is expecting at this point. I can't help but wonder why she is commenting on this at this point if she doesn't have time to do a cursory read.
[-] town points
Kage's wall doesn't look that weird to me, as it looks like something I would do. But consensus seems to be that it is an odd thing to do, albeit within Kage's town meta.
[+] town points

Here she has more reads than MU, but still says this is rough in back to back posts. ~:confused:
[-] town points

Responding to Monty with a joke. Null


Back-to-back posts. Responding to GH changing his vote from Monty to Barto.

Barto lynched.


NIGHT 1

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Triple back-to-back. If it weren't for the fact that GH later claims tracker, I might call this telegraphing. I feel like Scum Manasi likes to gloat and drop clues.
[-] town points

~:confused::undecided: This looks like the gloating Scum!Manasi I mentioned.
[-] town points

Responding to Csargo. Csargo shaded everyone on the wagon, claiming Monty looked worse than GH and Kage.

Responds to GH's "postal" picture. This doesn't look much like a town response to me. This looks like "I was right about Barto, and you weren't."
[-] town points

Responding to Kage, who is talking about her and Csargo to Dp. Manasi makes a fair point about Kage asking a bunch of questions without saying much otherwise.
[+] town points

Csargo mentions he doesn't feel confident about living, and this is Manasi's response.
[-] town points

Replying to Sooh, about Scum!GH taking direct control of things. Her comment's read like she knows GH better than nsooh does, or at leasts understands Scum!GH's process better. But her follow-up questions don't look like town!Manasi probing; they looks like wolf!Manasi probing for weaknesses to exploit.
[-]town points.

Replying to Monty, who was responding to Csargo. I thought it was funny at first, but seeing the root is Scum!Csargo, this looks less normal. I'm not willing to give this comment a lean just yet.

Replying to Dp. Not sure what she is getting to here.
If scum, this was a really good job of pocketing me. I should be more careful with these types of posts.

The end of 7 back-to-back posts. I get her frustration at the end, and if it were not Manasi, I would wonder if someone posting 7 times in quick succession was a sign of someone trying to steer the conversation.






4 more back-to-back posts

This is something I swear I've seen Manasi do as Mafia. I don't recall this happening when she is town.
[-] town points

Joke response to Kage's query about aggressiveness. Null

Why would you? You are responding to Kage, not DP. How is DP concerned with a question that Kage asked of you?
[-] town points

This doesn't seem like something a mafia would do. I read this as "tell them my secrets, GH."
[+] town points
I misread this post initially. It's about GH "clearing" Monty based on the "no Lynch" vote Monty played. I like this; this seems like a townie reaction.
[+] town points

EON1: Monty Killed. Sooh cleared.

So, based on her D1 & N1, I'm pulling Manasi from my "likely townie" list. I'll finish her ISO later tonight. For those that want to pick up where I left off, post #222 where she laughs and bolds Kage's name is her first post of D2.

---

For what it's worth I got my sites all messed up and that was my attempt at a vote until I saw the votecount and I cried.

Also you need to make a decision because it seems like today's the day where everyone is locking in their POE.

And you don't seem to be getting to one. Scumreading three people when you have two lynches is nagl but I hope you figure it out in the next 21 hours.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Also you need to make a decision because it seems like today's the day where everyone is locking in their POE.

And you don't seem to be getting to one. Scumreading three people when you have two lynches is nagl but I hope you figure it out in the next 21 hours.

---

You're not wrong there, but I am going through my process. Can you say the same? Because it doesn't look that way to me.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sooh

Snerk basically only voted jokes when he was around, so I'm going to discount that.



Could be a partner post I guess. He was responding to a Csargo post at the time though, so I'm unsure.



Why was that Kage post odd and wolfy?



With the level of reaction that was given to GH's suss post of Dp I'm not sure I buy him just trusting GH at face value here. I know I didn't.

The subsequent spew finding effort also seems to me at least to be a flailing attempt to find two more mislynches in a very small pool (myself and GH were already clear, so he sussed first Manasi and then Logic).

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I just added one of the posts I think is an example of flailing.



And this is where that whole read is ???

If Dp is scum here he knows he has to find two mislynches to win. He has one listed, though I guess the next logical (lol) thing to do is to go for the "probably clear" person next.

Idk, Dp, enlighten me perhaps?

---

The reason I found that earlier kage post wolfy was because of how it seemed like a complete, maybe-deliberate misinterpretation of how manasi was acting/feeling. It was clearly just frustration with software not working the way she expected it to, but Kage turned it around into manasi being aggressive generally, when she had displayed no such tendencies up to that point. I really feel like it was a stretch, enough so that it's suspicious.

I really don't get why you call my attempts at finding spew "flailing for mislynches". Like, you say that it's scummy, but what about it makes you think that I can't have been trying to do that analysis as town? Just my later uncertainty, which is present in literally every game that I've played?

Manasi ISO, part 2

Day 2: Monty killed, Sooh revealed

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Hahahahahahahaha.

Kage

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Two of my scum reads flipped town.

Cya.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

I scumread Kage before Logic even

ugh

---

Right after Monty and Sooh's alignments were revealed. I gotta say, this looks more like a towny perspective than a mafia one.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

This seems like exactly what you're doing in continuing to wait for Sooh lmao.

---

Still pressuring Kage. Consistant, at least.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Please go look back at the game where the three of us were scum together and compare.

This is a weird read for you to have, especially paired with coming to the conclusion that we're scum together.

---

Responding to GH before his claim/reveal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Yeah give me a second. I've been really busy and tried posting last night on mobile but the site loaded horribly for me so I just went to sleep.

---

Responding to Kage about being evasive. This looks like another evasive answer to avoid the question for a moment.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

I've absolutely been developing my own reads moreso than most people in the thread at this point, and if that's something you can't see then I'm not sure what to tell you. I haven't evaded anything besides the questions in posts I literally haven't read yet lmao

---

Not wrong about reads.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

So I'm put in this shitty spot where both myself and my town read are being pushed by the supposed tracker. If Csargo is scum, fine, that's fair. I didn't super lock clear him anyway. Reading both of our posts and concluding that we are potentially partners, though, is laughable. GH should know better than it. Again, it's fine since we're killing him today but I need you all to re-evaluate on me tomorrow.

Csargo's posting yesterday and last night would have been good enough to warrant a clear read from a lot of people tbh. Wifom alert, but I'm pretty sure if my scum partner gave me a reason to lock them away as town in my reads I would grab it and run.


Rest coming.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

I also don't think a low impact IC dies over a tracker that could get another wolf.

Just my 0.02 at a post that stuck out strangely.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

So then by the start of Day 3, both Csargo and GH will be dead and we can actually evaluate the game without him spewing that Kage's town and I'm mafia.

Good stuff.




Re: Dp, I could easily be getting bamboozled. I still think he's townier than Kage whose only real stance has been [probably] attempting to pocket GH. If GH even tried to verbalize why he thought Kage was town besides "Oh I just feel it really hard," I'd be a lot more inclined to listen or try to understand. From my perspective, though, I'm getting really pretty exclusively by two guys who are just back and forth town reading each other and could definitely be mafia together (barring the claim which is probably self resolving).

Tinfoil is partners bussing through claim but I think if they just continued on they'd have won just as easily.

Scratch that tinfoil.

Everything is fine.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Logic is spewed town by every side of this game.

Nobody's wanted to push there.

/shrug

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Csargo

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Logic, I'm willing to entertain the notion that Kage could be mafia, but not the one that I'm his partner for obvious reasons. Could you present a feasible alternative?

Csargo, you're given a gun with one shot. Who do you kill?

---

Kage I think at this point.

My PoE is something like this atm:

Csargo
Sooh
Logic
Manasi
Dp101/GH
Kage

---

Does Csargo put his partner Dp this low in the POE?

---

Noted for future reference.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Not everyone has pushed on Kage fwiw.

Csargo didn't really actually push at all. It's just been myself and Logic.

Half the game.

Math checks out.

---

Perhaps I'm being unually thick, but I don't know what "half the game" Manasi is referencing here. Half the players? Half play time? Care to clarift, @Manasi?

Double-Sooh posts, for reference:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sooh

Personally I feel like this Manasi is miles away from scum-Manasi in that previous game.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sooh

Csargo, what do you think?

---

Csargo "thanks" the latter post, which I first thought was something, but this was after his outing by GH. So looking for partner associations there is null or wifom at best, and aggravating for those solving at worst.

EOD 2: Csargo lynched with GH, Kage, and DP on wagon.
Manasi attempts to vote Kage but is not counted, Logic Votes DP, while Csargo, and Sooh are not voting.

NIGHT 2

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Good shit.

Still waiting for GH to do something even close to what he did to read Logic for Kage.

Too many people to lynch with too many question marks.

Dp/Sooh pls do something this is driving me a little insane.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Like I'm glad he's come around to Logic being town but I think he (GH) is still going to tell y'all to push on me in the coming days which is the objectively incorrect play.

I don't know if Sooh is ever this much of a non-factor, but I wouldn't be surprised?

I am a little bleh about Dp's activity being so low.

The only thing in Kage's favor was the activity and how he was actually like urging me to post even though all of my reads were already ITT?

I don't fucking know town just needs to posttttttt.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

I'll be at home doing date of birth things for the majority of the day tomorrow, but I should be looking through thread during down time.

Should be around.

It'll be fine.

---

Triple post by Manasi

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Yeah I didn’t know that I posted shade on you I was also quite drunk lmao.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Manasi

Think most people would be able to tell I’m incredibly far out of my mafia range right now. It could be as easy as Dp/Csargo or something but if Dp flips town I’m gonna fuckin’ go guns blazing at Kage.

Those posts weren’t shit don’t be mean :(

---

EON1: GH is killed.

DAY 3

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Bussing?

He's a flipped villager dude.

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This looks like a possible derp-clear, maybe a drunk/hungover post.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Yep, that's basically where I am. Feel bad that the game is locked in my head but I'll try to keep an open mind and reevaluate.

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OK, maybe I was too harsh on Manasi earlier when I said it didn't look like she was following her process.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Yeah the mafia had to bus. They're not in the two confirmed people off wagon and it's not in AFK me.

I don't think you'd end up on a random wagon when someone's outted as mafia either.

I think the POE of Kage/Dp is solid so you're fine in LYLO.

If you're mafia you've already won ecks dee.

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Responding to me and my (still currently valid) vote on Kage.
But, bussing is a much more likely scenario than being off-wagon or not voting (in Manasi's case, invalid voting.) This seems to point more in favor of Kage/DP than Manasi, and D1 voting all 3 were on flipped villagers that were reasonably competing wagons (as was I, for sake of full disclosure.)

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Originally Posted by Manasi

THAT BEING SAID, mafia probably hops onto the wagon after the claim as opposed to before the claim.

Right?

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Manasi's attempted vote for Kage was almost immediately after the day opened, and it looks like she made no attempt to change after the claim. This post looks like it is drawing attention to Manasi's voting record, and I am not liking this.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Don't go down this road.

I'm probably objectively the worst looking when it comes to interactions with Csargo, but you know as much as anyone on this game that this is probably the most engaged/involved I've been in a game on this site. I don't know if you think that would speak to my town equity or mafia equity, but I think it's something to be noted and used for a read as opposed to just my interactions with one of my friends while the thread was deceased.

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This is the post I think most needs to be addressed. She's responding to me where I point out the GH interaction with Csargo and who Csargo would kill if he had a one-shot gun. The part that I find problematic is that Manasi also quoted Csargo's post and came to similar conclusions earlier, but now is telling me to not go looking at this further? That reads weird.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

For what it's worth I got my sites all messed up and that was my attempt at a vote until I saw the votecount and I cried.

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Could be legitimate, but I read this as more like manipulation of emotions; an attempt to gain our sympathy.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Also you need to make a decision because it seems like today's the day where everyone is locking in their POE.

And you don't seem to be getting to one. Scumreading three people when you have two lynches is nagl but I hope you figure it out in the next 21 hours.

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Absolutely right. I'm not in the best position to be an authority, but each ISO has little things sticking out, and yours seems to have the most thus far. I may not end on you today, as I still have to go through Dp before day-end. But right now, I am leaning you.

@Kage: Stop tunnelling Manasi for a moment. Who is the remaining Mafia?

Is GH ever this grossly wrong on Kage? Is it even worth looking st game history? I wanna park my vote there until he comes back and posts but I feel kinda bad doing so.

Wow, this is rather sad.
Tempted to vote Kage just because he isn't around. 0 posting this late in the game is not good.

I wanna give Kagemusha the benefit of the doubt just because of GH's read but when his last like 5 posts are just about killing me I don't know what I'm supposed to think.
@Kagemusha anyyyyything you wanna say? I don't know who's getting lynched btwn you or Dp but it's definitely one of you from what it SEEMS LIKE.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Catching up, this post worries me, a lot.


I find this level of aggression from you extremely... unsettling. You are expecting me to be completely pure in tone, and also somehow think that I can get that even while not being fully in thread? Like, imo, the main thing that good tone stems from is being extremely in-sync with how the thread is feeling, and that's near-impossible to have while not being around that much. I agree that my participation here has been spotty at best, and I did not anticipate being quite this rusty when I returned to the game. Honestly the "let's throw DP under the bus 100% with complete certainty and expect him to do things that he can't/doesn't (such as have good tone while not being around)" feels extremely reminiscent of my last org game with you as scum.

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This is post GH claim, pre-reveal. I read this as more likely town, but it could be a reaction to having his buddy outed.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Welp, lolme. Ignore everything I just said in my last post. Vote: Csargo

If you lied about this, I'm coming for your head tomorrow.

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And then he addresses the claim in the next post. Derp clear, or attempt to fake a derp-clear?
I read this as a little less likely to be genuine.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

I feel like this is... probably something that's said more towards a wolf than a villager? Like, it feels like Csargo was internally going "ok, time to talk about a consensus town, this shouldn't be too hard", and then thought he could get away with saying a fair amount of vague good-sounding things that are similar to what others have said, relying on the fact that people are mostly already agreeing as a way to get out of having to fake too much work. If Manasi was scum with csargo here, I'd expect either a. continuing the "I can't really read manasi" thing throughout the post rather than trying to construct a townread that might link them together, or b. having more specific reasons to give the townread rather than just going with the flow. To expand on the latter option, if I thought I was fairly secure and had an opportunity to talk about a scumbuddy who was doing well, I'd emphasise what has been getting them townread as hard as I can, in order to try and support them more and hopefully promote us as a towncore. Instead, there's this weird non-specific read.

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DP Points out a post by Csargo. Csargo calls Manasi town by gut after being pressed a bit by GH about Manasi and Kage. DP thinks this implicates Manasi moreso than anyone else. I am not sure where this places DP just yet, but this looks noteworthy to me.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Yeah, sorry, trying to lay stuff out now.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Moar attempted spew-reading attempts, since I never do this and need to get better at it, and the play is imo clearer if GH is lying so I see more value in trying to catch the scum after Csargo:

The logic read feels somewhat like providing support to a scumbuddy who has improved dramatically and trying to push that point into people's heads. If logic was town here, I feel like scum!csargo would be focussing on lacklustre prior actions rather than trying to paint a picture of improvement.

Vague Manasi read is *noted*, but not sure exactly what it means.

Tries to discredit kage via logic, in a way that strikes me as honestly weird regardless of alignment. Leaving aside the part where it's honestly fairly wrong, I'm not sure what incentive there is as either alignment to make this push based off of logic's. This would make town!logic somewhat more likely, but it's also possible that this is a wolf-team coordinating somewhat clumsily to push a mislynch (although why they wouldn't go on me is a mystery to me).

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This looks pretty good, and adds credibility to scum!Manasi theory, but mostly by adding another assenting voice. The post by Csargo he is quoteing is of more value, I think.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Someone talk to me pls I know it's not the best hour but idk what I'm doing.

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This makes Dp sound desperate. I had placed his skill higher than apparently he does, so if he's faking, this is pretty good, performance-wise. I'm thinking he is better than this, but everyone has their own doubts. I've gone back and forth on my reads throughout, so I can't say I blame him. This post of Dp is immediately followed by Kage's "Vote Csargo" which I could be a point against Dp.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Yeah, that’s the other thing. Even besides the potential post-flip associations, this has been the towniest Manasi I’ve seen in forever, and honestly the most interest I’ve ever seen her have in solving.

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At the time I saw this post, I liked it a lot. I'm not the only person that saw this as Manasi's towniest game ever (Sooh and now Dp have agreed as much.) but going back through Manasi's posts had me doubting that. Here, DP is quoting Sooh, and could be parroting what at the time, I believe had already been said by Sooh, GH, and myself.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

I’m honestly shocked that you think I know what I’m doing. Maybe I haven’t brought it up here much, but my personal opinion of my towngame is that it’s complete garbage. Like, I have never had any amount of confidence in my town game, and if you think this seems not like me (and, especially, not like me enough to vote me over a track result then I just don’t understand you.

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This is where Dp calls into question his own skill. I don't think this is a town response. I read this like:
scum!Dp: "Oh, I was wrong? Well, I'm not very good."
Town!Dp: "I win by luck as town, mostly."

And granted, while I am putting words into his mouth, I don't like either answer.

But a second reading occurs to me as a type this:
Dp readily admits that his TOWN game is garbage. His omission of his scum game makes me take some town points from him.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

I didn’t read it as condescending, I just think it shows a fundamental lack of understanding of how I view the game and myself.

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Self-shading again. I think he is trying to tell us to not read too much into his reads. I do agree, I don't understand how he views the game, because I've not committed to memory whataver anecdote would clue me in on how he does perceive the game.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Doesn’t matter, we got it right anyway! Thx Gh

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Easy to fake, but could be genuine.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

The Kage read, mostly. Felt like mafia would just make the read and move on, not talk about how odd it was.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Agree fully, I have no idea what kage is doing, this feels completely different to past games, making me decently confident in him not being town.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Not quoting because mobile, but I find it weird how in GH’s big wall on everyone my posts with actual analysis in them are ignored, and instead the only post that gets picked up is barely 2 sentences. Probably nothing, but, there’s a tiny part of me that feels like the possibility of GH fpsing and bussing is not out of the question.

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EON2: GH is killed

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Well, honestly not sure where to go from here. Logic is probably clear, I trust Manasi, sooh is IC so I guess Kage is all I have? Going to wait a bit for others to weigh in first, before I vote anyone.

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First post of the day. Not voting, but leaning Kage before anyone else; same as where Manasi and I seem to be at the moment.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

He was not flipped at the time of that post.

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Responding to Manasi's derp-comment.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

The reason I found that earlier kage post wolfy was because of how it seemed like a complete, maybe-deliberate misinterpretation of how manasi was acting/feeling. It was clearly just frustration with software not working the way she expected it to, but Kage turned it around into manasi being aggressive generally, when she had displayed no such tendencies up to that point. I really feel like it was a stretch, enough so that it's suspicious.

I really don't get why you call my attempts at finding spew "flailing for mislynches". Like, you say that it's scummy, but what about it makes you think that I can't have been trying to do that analysis as town? Just my later uncertainty, which is present in literally every game that I've played?

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Responding to Sooh, last post as of #362.
This could be acting, and that is how I am reading this right now. So unless someone makes a GH-Chess level play, my vote remains on Kagemusha.

Also, Kage still has yet to post this phase. Anyone want to discuss that?

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Originally Posted by Logic

Also, Kage still has yet to post this phase. Anyone want to discuss that?

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That's why I kind of want to vote him. I don't like him checking out like that. I don't particularly want dead weight in F3 if we mislynch today.

I also think that if I was scum in this game I would probably be tryharding more than 0 posting.

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Originally Posted by Sooh

Wow, this is rather sad.
Tempted to vote Kage just because he isn't around. 0 posting this late in the game is not good.

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DP's one post was that it's probably Kage.

Can't tell what Logic is thinking.

Kage's 0 posting.

It's a toss up right now which is great.

Manasi, are you around? How do you think the last scum would be working this round?

Heh you sniped me

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Originally Posted by Sooh

That's why I kind of want to vote him. I don't like him checking out like that. I don't particularly want dead weight in F3 if we mislynch today.

I also think that if I was scum in this game I would probably be tryharding more than 0 posting.

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Well the only one putting in more than 3% effort is Logic right now so no matter what a mafia is basically 0-1 posting.

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Originally Posted by Sooh

Manasi, are you around? How do you think the last scum would be working this round?

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Dunno, the two people in my POE aren't posting at all so maybe they've given up because the game is locked.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

DP's one post was that it's probably Kage.

Can't tell what Logic is thinking.

Kage's 0 posting.

It's a toss up right now which is great.

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I'm presently thinking that Kage > Dp > Manasi.

The problem with my process is to doubt EVERYTHING. I've tried to adopt a "If I am wrong, how am I wrong?" worldview in my general life, but when applied to this game, it can cause game-paralysis over a failure to trust in anything, including myself. Maybe that is what Dp is thinking as well.

One thing I am fairly sure of: Zack is chuckling to himself.

I'm just scared Logic is that one scum who feels victory is near and braves it out.

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Originally Posted by Sooh

I'm just scared Logic is that one scum who feels victory is near and braves it out.

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I'm pretty sure I've posted it before but if he's scum he's already won.

People didn't actually play the game so if he's scum playing like this then he deserves the win anyway.

We don't have the resources to tinfoil.

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Originally Posted by Zack

1 Kagemusha (Logic)

Not Voting: @Dp101, @Manasi, @Sooh

Not Posting: @Kagemusha

Voting ends in:

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I think the tally is still just logic voting kage?

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Originally Posted by Manasi

I'm pretty sure I've posted it before but if he's scum he's already won.

People didn't actually play the game so if he's scum playing like this then he deserves the win anyway.

We don't have the resources to tinfoil.

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I guess not. You want Kage? or Dp?

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Originally Posted by Zack

I think the tally is still just logic voting kage?

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Unless I missed something, I concur.

Great. 15 mins to EOD and I don't know where I want to vote.

I kind of think the last two lynches need to be Logic and Dp, but lolme.

Vote: Kagemusha

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Originally Posted by Sooh

Great. 15 mins to EOD and I don't know where I want to vote.

I kind of think the last two lynches need to be Logic and Dp, but lolme.

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Logic?

Do you mean Kage or are you actually tinfoiling this hard?

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Originally Posted by Logic

One thing I am fairly sure of: Zack is chuckling to himself.

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I prefer to think he's chortling.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Logic?

Do you mean Kage or are you actually tinfoiling this hard?

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I am tinfoiling yes.

If it's not Kage, who's next IYO?

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Originally Posted by Sooh

I am tinfoiling yes.

If it's not Kage, who's next IYO?

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Dp. I've said it approximately 82 times.

Ok. I'll give you both your Kage lynch. If that doesn't end the game, GL in F3.

Hope the game just ends here glgl.

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Originally Posted by Sooh

Ok. I'll give you both your Kage lynch. If that doesn't end the game, GL in F3.

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Good fight for a logic lynch I commend the effort put in from all parties.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Good fight for a logic lynch I commend the effort put in from all parties.

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What do you mean??

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Originally Posted by Sooh

What do you mean??

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Nothing tbh.

Kage was lynched, he was the last wolf.

gg

We did it reddit.

Thanks for hosting, Zack :smitten:

That was anticlimactic lol.

GG guys.

I WIN! I WIN I WIN I WIN!

Erm, well, good game, good team effort, etc.

Yeah thanks for hosting Zack was fun.

I'm not going to lie, I'm super :daisy: salty over this game.

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Originally Posted by Csargo

I'm not going to lie, I'm super :daisy: salty over this game.

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Is this because Sooh didn't do an ISO of your posts again?

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Originally Posted by Csargo

Yeah thanks for hosting Zack was fun.

I'm not going to lie, I'm super :daisy: salty over this game.

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What are the odds of being tracked correctly the way you were? That was pretty awesome by GH and pretty unfortunate for you <3

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Originally Posted by Sooh

What are the odds of being tracked correctly the way you were? That was pretty awesome by GH and pretty unfortunate for you <3

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I doubt it's entirely about the track, but yeah.

If GH doesn't track Csargo I'm probably never voting on him at all.

I didn't vote o him when GH claimed anyway but that's besides the point.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

I doubt it's entirely about the track, but yeah.

If GH doesn't track Csargo I'm probably never voting on him at all.

I didn't vote o him when GH claimed anyway but that's besides the point.

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:rolleyes: