Hi Corona (maybe)
:rolleyes:
Printable View
Hi Corona (maybe)
:rolleyes:
They were discussing Universal Income on the news yesterday.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Looks like government paying wages
Corona Hi? I wish, but my favorite alcoholic beverage is in short supply, at the moment~;)
Look, the R "Naught" statistic clearly shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is more infectious than the flu. If you can get through the "geek speak", this particular analysis illustrates it well:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...144-4/fulltext
Granted this looking at travel restrictions and not social distancing, but the theory of reducing the number of contacts is still viable, IMHO.Quote:
Combining a mathematical model with multiple datasets, we found that the median daily Rt of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan probably varied between 1·6 and 2·6 in January, 2020, before travel restrictions were introduced. We also estimated that transmission declined by around half in the 2 weeks spanning the introduction of restrictions.
Taking that together with Bruce Alyward's (Assistant Director-General of the WHO) comments in the joint WHO-China study released near the end of February, that:
A recommendation for social distancing as far back as the end of February.Quote:
Conduct multi-sector scenario planning and simulations for the deployment of even more stringent measures to interrupt transmission chains as needed (e.g. the suspension of large-scale gatherings and the closure of schools and workplaces).
So...the alternatives are what....?:shrug:
More deaths.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
As I said previously, many of the older folk in the UK would prefer that because they come from a generation that accepts the death of elderly people from pneumonia, as opposed to dementia, as normal.
ACIN and Monty have been demanding Socialism and this virus is giving it to them: the state pays the wages of people not working, the start nationalises private businesses, cancellation of elections for "the public good" along with suppression of the right to free assembly and free association. The draconian measures taken by the UK Government is the prime cause of the current panic buying, the first result of which has already been a massive reduction in choice as supermarkets move to stack shelves with a single type of toilet paper instead of 20, the next step there is rationing, followed by state control of production.
The US has not experienced this before because it has never really needed to move to a "war footing" like Europe.
It's going to get a lot worse, if sickness disrupts food production then there will be real rationing, which means stretching limited food supplies so that everybody has something, that means a black market...
Now, excuse me, I need to take the drugz.
A team from Sky News visited the hospitals in Cremona and Bergamo, two of the worst hit towns in Italy. Two videos (particular the second video) show what the physical reality behind the statistics is like: hospitals filled up with people suffering from severe pneumonia.
The video of army trucks carrying coffins with the dead is also from Bergamo, where the local crematorium apparently can't keep up with the pace that people currently are dying at in the city:
Quote:
The crematorium of Bergamo, working at full capacity, 24 hours a day, can cremate 25 dead", said a spokesperson for the local authority.
"It is clear that it could not stand up to the numbers of the past few days."
Coffins are now being taken to crematoriums in Modena, Acqui Terme, Domodossola, Parma, Piacenza and several other cities.
Once the bodies have been cremated, the ashes will be brought back to Bergamo.
Despite your claim that "many of the older folk prefer death" as an out from dementia (like all elderly people are going to suffer dementia at some point:rolleyes:), that's a pretty cavalier attitude from someone in their early 30's. Feeling bullet-proof because your age-group is not suffering the majority of the deaths from COVID-19(for the moment, at least)?Quote:
More deaths.
Not saying Socialism is the answer, either. And despite the fact that draconian measures have brought the spread of the virus in China almost to a halt, I would not have wanted to be on that lock-down to where I might get shot for leaving my home.
I think you have a rather cavalier attitude to the shutdown of civil society and suspension of democracy - take a look at what's happening in Israel right now. I'm not suggesting that elderly people *want* death I'm communicating what many of them have told me, they are far more stoical about it than than Generation-X and the Millennials.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
I don't think that I do, but I'm sure that's open to debate:shrug: I'm saying that I'm willing to accept a short-term (several weeks?) shut-down if it means getting ahead of this virus instead of always reacting to it. Now it may well be that a single mother living from pay-check to pay-check might vehemently disagree, or a business that has to shutter its' doors-permanently-might also disagree, but the alternative, as you put it, "more deaths", is unacceptable to me.Quote:
I think you have a rather cavalier attitude to the shutdown of civil society and suspension of democracy
So if "more deaths" is an acceptable alternative to you, where do you stop? Just how many deaths are you willing to accept as payment for your social rights?
The UK Government is already planning for this to last a minimum of 12 weeks whilst our scientists are warning it could be 12-18 months. That assumes there is a vaccine by then, if ever, because this is the same family of viruses that causes the Common Cold. The strength of the restrictions will probably vary in that time but this is a circumstance of months and possibly years, not weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Suicides rates are about to skyrocket - as is domestic abuse and homicide - how many more of those deaths are you willing to stomach?
I wouldn't presume to be able to predict the future---otherwise I'd be in a far more comfortable place than sitting in front of my computer typing this. This thread has been characterized as panic porn for calling this pandemic dire circumstances for humanity. I disagreed with that....until now. Months? Years? That's panic porn, IMHO. What leads you to think that the UK, or any other Western society is going to take advantage of the situation and go all Chairman Mao on its' population?Quote:
but this is a circumstance of months and possibly years, not weeks.
You still didn't answer my question. How many deaths are an acceptable payment for your "social rights?"Quote:
Suicides rates are about to skyrocket - as is domestic abuse and homicide - how many more of those deaths are you willing to stomach?
I'll answer yours---the number of deaths from suicides, homicides, and other forms of social violence will certainly go up. The longer mobility is restricted, the more there will be. I'm not a sociologist, nor a statistician, so I can't give a body count. However.....I do know that if SARS-CoV-2 is left to run rampant in the name of "social rights", the body count will absolutely dwarf those who die from societal violence.
I'm not talking about some sinister plot, I'm talking about what's happening right now and it being normalised after it's been in place for 18 months. That's the time-frame we're being given here, 3 months of lock down minimum and 12-18 months of at least moderate social distancing.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
The difference between "mitigation" and "suppression" in the UK is pegged at roughly 230,000 lives, mostly elderly, how many extra suicides and battered young mothers is that worth to you? It's not a 1:1 equivalency, either, because death by disease is a natural part of life.Quote:
You still didn't answer my question. How many deaths are an acceptable payment for your "social rights?"
I'll answer yours---the number of deaths from suicides, homicides, and other forms of social violence will certainly go up. The longer mobility is restricted, the more there will be. I'm not a sociologist, nor a statistician, so I can't give a body count. However.....I do know that if SARS-CoV-2 is left to run rampant in the name of "social rights", the body count will absolutely dwarf those who die from societal violence.
The Great Smog of London resulted in an estimated 4,000 deaths, with upper estimates counting the final total at 10,000. That led to societal changes. You want 230,000 deaths to be something we accept?Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
The smog was man-made.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
https://i.imgur.com/nKFCi8X.jpg
Just because one individual's family members have a fatalistic outlook does not indicate something essential about a generation, who themselves have known widespread lethal infectious disease except perhaps in their distant childhoods.
For those concerned, taking responsive and responsible emergency measures is not socialism, any more than contesting a military invasion is socialism. Now, the structural evils of American society highlighted by the epidemic and our response to it make as good a case for socialism as any, but that's distinct from effective emergency relief. Only Randian psychos could stand athwart the latter.
Americans didn't experience WW2 the way the UK did because we got richer and stronger and more prosperous as the war wound on. But the comparison is futile in terms of experience, because a pandemic is not actually like a war beyond the need for a strong collective response. We are living through an economic deep freeze; neither Americans nor Europeans have ever experienced anything like this in living memory.
And while smog was manmade, all social responses and government policies are also manmade. We are always burdened with decisions.
Look, this is out of our hands. In a month's time we will, as I keep emphasizing, have a more visceral experience of the costs of both blanket suppression and high caseload, tens of thousands of deaths, hospital overrun. We're going to be revisiting the data as it is updated. No one should act as though our course of action has been set for the remainder of the month, let alone the remainder of the year.
But there is no substitute for mass testing. If we can test millions of people, at that point we no longer require massive quarantines to flatten the peak. We can isolate positive cases and break transmission to the point where infection slows to a manageable trickle, with increasing surefootedness as asymptomatic or recovered individuals can freely return to normal life en masse. If we can't get capacity to test millions, we're blind and have few options.
New York City hospitals are already reportedly on the verge of being overwhelmed, and the peak is an estimated ~40 days away. Having so few hospitals, doctors, and nurses per capita compared to other rich countries is really biting us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
And deliberately not following a course known to be effective is not a similarly artificial decision? China have got it down to zero local transmissions for several days in a row. Other countries have similarly got the numbers down. We know what works.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Yo, this is straight up disgusting. "my life is worth more than yours old man cause you are supposed to die by now from your fragile body."Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Talking about battered young mothers as some sympathy card while simultaneously downplaying the pain that older patients go through of having 5-10 days of their life choked by limited breathing capacity and slow death.
Get your head out of your ass.
I'm absolutely speechless:jawdrop:Quote:
The difference between "mitigation" and "suppression" in the UK is pegged at roughly 230,000 lives, mostly elderly, how many extra suicides and battered young mothers is that worth to you? It's not a 1:1 equivalency, either, because death by disease is a natural part of life.
Cummings was the political driver behind Brexit and Johnson's election ("Get Brexit done"). And now he's the driver behind the UK's medical policy on a pandemic.Quote:
Dominic Cummings, the prime minister's senior aide, became convinced that Britain would be better able to resist a lethal second wave of the disease next winter if Whitty's prediction that 60% to 80% of the population became infected was right and Britain developed "herd immunity".
Mostly elderly, but when dealing with such large number of deceased, a significant number of children are likely to lose at least one of their parents (to be clear, it has already happened at least once).Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
This report on 3200 dead from COVID-19 in Italy found that 36 of the deceased (about 2%) were between the ages of 30-49; and 9 individuals in this group (0.28% of the 3200) were between the ages of 30-39. The proportion of younger people may go up as time passes; it could be that younger individuals on average have a more drawn out progression of the disease before they die, given that they otherwise may be of better health.
250,000 lives saved would therefore likely, at the minimum, include 700 people aged 30-39, and another 2,100 people aged 40-49.
Those are the deaths, but another issue is the potential for a permanently weakened health. 96.5% of the deceased in the Italian report had acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). If any of those who survive COVID-19 also acquire this syndrome, this is part of what they risk:
All of this also needs to be factored in for the cost analysis.Quote:
Breathing problems. Many people with ARDS recover most of their lung function within several months to two years, but others may have breathing problems for the rest of their lives. Even people who do well usually have shortness of breath and fatigue and may need supplemental oxygen at home for a few months.
Problems with memory and thinking clearly. Sedatives and low levels of oxygen in the blood can lead to memory loss and cognitive problems after ARDS. In some cases, the effects may lessen over time, but in others, the damage may be permanent.
Suicide numbers could go up, but it is not obvious that they will skyrocket. This is a national crisis as much as a personal one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Notably, suicide rates appear to be lower while countries are at war. This could to an extent be linked to lower unemployment rates, which currently are trending starkly in the opposite direction.
I saw that, too. Just found this Bloomberg article with some more details, including for the larger area:Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
‘Tipping Point’ at New York Area Hospitals as Virus Cases MountQuote:
“This is the tipping point,” said Anne Goldman, vice president for non-education members at the United Federation of Teachers, which represents some health care workers. “We’re pretty much saturated with critically ill.”
[...]
In New Jersey, Holy Name Hospital has admitted 60 confirmed or suspected Covid-19 patients. The 321-bed facility in Teaneck is creating dozens of special new rooms.
[...]
Seventeen staff members have tested positive, including one who’s “very sick,” Jarrett said. Holy Name’s chief executive officer, Michael Maron, learned Friday that he tested positive.
[...]
Goldman, who is also a nurse, says that Elmhurst Hospital and NYU’s Brooklyn campus are seeing their intensive care units filled with a share of patients under 40 years old they had not anticipated.
“It’s not who we were expecting,” she says.
Over half of all Covid-19 patients in New York are between 18 and 49, the state says.
The swell is pushing out patients with other serious conditions, Goldman says. Cancer patients are having chemo treatments postponed, and wait times for treatment of even severe injuries, such as broken limbs, are spiking.
China will shoot you in the head if you disobey the Government - are you advocating that here? Singapore just enacts corporal punishment, we do not have that kind of society. Italy has started to see numbers fall but only once the population was sufficiently terrified of the disease, a week ago Italians were flouting restrictions just like Brits are now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
In any case, both China and Singapore are still seeing cases coming into the country, which means that they need to keep restrictions in place for the foreseable future - it's like keeping your hand on a saucepan lid to stop the pan boiling over - as soon as you let go the lid come flying off and all the steam comes out.
Not remotely what I said. In case you missed the hint I'm currently self isolating after developing a Dry Cough yesterday, today the cough isn't too bad but I have a sore throat, am dehydrated and am starting to feel a fever coming on. After writing this I'm moving my PhD research to the university's shared cloud storage and writing a letter to a colleague with my username and password authorising her to retrieve the research in the event of my death.Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
No, I am absolutely not joking - I'm working on the principle I have something like a 1 in 800 to 1 in 200 chance of not surviving this, which is pretty lousy odds, really.
Now, my point is this: Shutting down civil society for 12-18 months, which is what is now being subtly explained to the British public, will cause long-term damage to a lot of people. Mostly children who's development will be stunted, and will probably end up with health problems later in life from being overweight. Then there are the people with depression who will be deprived of stimulus, that group is at high risk of suicide but even if they don't become suicidal they can become dependent on anti-depressants or just plat out stop being able to look after themselves. Then there are the elderly whom you are so worried about despite poring scorn on them a week ago - many of them will die alone and afraid from a completely unrelated condition, having never caught the virus.
You are still only looking ahead weeks - I'm looking 6, 12, 18 months down the line - I'm thinking about the teenagers who don't get to have those early relationships and silly first kisses and the grandparents who pass away from heart attack or stroke before even seeing their grandchildren for the first time.
You're just looking at a raw number of people who might not die because they didn't catch a disease - you're not looking at the overall calculation and you're not appreciating that this is the calculation governments are making that calculation. They're looking at the degree of social distancing they enact and they're projecting how many extra suicides it will cause, how much social unrest, how much economic damage, and they're weighing that up against a number of lives they might save, and they ARE asking how many of those people are elderly and how many would live for five more years if they don't get Corvid-19.
So, respectfully, remove your own head from your own fundament - you are doing exactly what I am doing, weighing some lives against others, one type of suffering against another type of suffering.
You really need to post your sources.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
The figures reported are:Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Do nothing: 500,000 dead.
Mitigation (plan before Monday): 250,000 dead
Suppression (what we are doing now, shut down society until further notice): 20,000 dead.
As I said to the others - how many lives are you willing to ruin to save that many people? If a million children have developmental problems later in life due to being locked up for 18 months is that acceptable? An extra 10,000 suicides of people in their early 20's? 2 million cases of PTSD?
It's a two sided equation, it's not just "how much are you willing to pay for your freedom" it's "how many lives are you willing to destroy on each side before you feel the scales are balanced." The longer we follow the suppression strategy the worse it gets. 12 month brings us to next March, which means (for example) the 2020 University Cohort don't actually physically go to University in September. 18 months takes us to the following September - those students are currently 17 and can't drink. Normally they would come to University at 18, go out to pubs, clubs etc. and then have calmed down by their second year and started buckling down for their degrees - which is fine because your first year doesn't count towards your grade. If they don't go to Uni next year and have online courses then they'll arrive at the start of their second year, go crazy, and all under-perform in their exams. That entire cohort will have degree results significantly worse as a result - which will follow them for life. The 2021 Cohort will have missed all of their final year of school and many may not apply at all, meaning they might never go to university.
This is just one example of the potential long-term impact.
Now, I'm not suggesting the UK sacrifice 250,000 people for the sake of the other 66 million, but I'm pointing out that there are very serious long-term consequences to the policies of social isolation that Western Democratic Governments are enacting. So maybe think a bit more critically and don't be so enthusiastic to give away all your rights and privileges.
The source was the Sunday Times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Taiwan: population 23 million
Taiwan: 169 coronavirus cases
Do you still want to go ahead with Brexit now that we've seen what happens when people anticipate shortages? We don't currently have supply issues; the issue is with the consumer. We are due to reduce EU imports by 95% at the end of the year if nothing is done. Still sounds good?Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
If you read personal accounts (NOT from virologists or other scientists) of people from Hubei Province, things were draconian in nature....but not that draconian (and yes, it doesn't mean things couldn't get that far). The Chinese accepted their scientists word that breaking the contagion chains was the method to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and they bought in. Temperature checked when you left your dwelling; temperature checked when you used public transportation; temperature checked when you got to your destination; and the same on the journey home (hell, temperature checked BEFORE you got your temperature checked, probably:stare:)Quote:
China will shoot you in the head if you disobey the Government - are you advocating that here?
The fact that they are finding those cases in the first place means they are aggressively monitoring incoming travelers. Anyone found to be infected is quarantined. Will that catch 100%? Probably not, but sooner or later someone will come up with a test that shows a +/- result much quicker than is now available.Quote:
In any case, both China and Singapore are still seeing cases coming into the country
Sorry to hear that. Stay as well as you can be. The odds (at the moment) are still in your favor.Quote:
No, I am absolutely not joking - I'm working on the principle I have something like a 1 in 800 to 1 in 200 chance of not surviving this, which is pretty lousy odds, really.
12-18 months of complete shutdown is over-reaction, IMHO. However, the biggest hole in your argument is the very methodology your are bitching about. Breaking the contamination chain is THE paramount factor in containing this virus. Numero-uno. It trumps every other factor. How is this done? Just look around the world to see what others have done.Quote:
Now, my point is this: Shutting down civil society for 12-18 months, which is what is now being subtly explained to the British public, will cause long-term damage to a lot of people.
1. Testing, testing, and testing on top of your testing. Knowing WHERE the virus has spread to allows you to organize containment. That's what the situation in S. Korea has shown. When you find a "hotspot" beginning to emerge, comes the next part.
2. Isolate the area in question to the fullest extent you can. That's what China did. And if you look at their current situation, that strategy worked (for the moment). And for a case failure, look at Italy.
Restrictions of your "civil liberties" via cancellation of events, bans on air travel, and in the worst case scenarios, severe lock-downs on personal travels, actually will SHORTEN the severity of the outbreak. Repeat, at the expense of some short-term inconvenience, the long-term situation will be much better. That's a trade-off that I'm personally willing to make.
None of that shit matters if they are dead. That dog doesn't hunt, in my world.:inquisitive:Quote:
As I said to the others - how many lives are you willing to ruin to save that many people? If a million children have developmental problems later in life due to being locked up for 18 months is that acceptable? An extra 10,000 suicides of people in their early 20's? 2 million cases of PTSD?
Brexit question importance = 0%Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
China doesn't have to shoot people in the head because the people already know they will be shot for disobedience. By contrast, in the UK when the Government asks people to limit social contact everyone goes to the beach. Together.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
This is a fair point, but no Western country has the inclination on infrastructure for this - remember the Right to Privacy? Most Democratic countries have rules that inhibit the state, to an extent, from tracking individuals as they go about their daily lives. China does not - it follows you everywhere.Quote:
The fact that they are finding those cases in the first place means they are aggressively monitoring incoming travelers. Anyone found to be infected is quarantined. Will that catch 100%? Probably not, but sooner or later someone will come up with a test that shows a +/- result much quicker than is now available.
My research is the only part of me that matters, though I would not want to upset my parents by dying - especially if they can't come to the funeral.Quote:
Sorry to hear that. Stay as well as you can be. The odds (at the moment) are still in your favor.
OK, so you think 12-18 months is OTT. How long will you put up with it, 3, 6? If after three months restrictions are eased and cases spike? Expereince with the Spanish Flu shows quite clearly that these sorts of control measures are only effective whilst they remain in place. You can't full eradicate the virus so as soon as the measures are lifted it flairs back up. The epidemic ends only two ways.Quote:
12-18 months of complete shutdown is over-reaction, IMHO. However, the biggest hole in your argument is the very methodology your are bitching about. Breaking the contamination chain is THE paramount factor in containing this virus. Numero-uno. It trumps every other factor. How is this done? Just look around the world to see what others have done.
1. It burns itself out.
2. You find an effective vaccine.
Watch South Korea and China over the next few months - my prediction is that they will lose control as soon as restrictions are eased.Quote:
1. Testing, testing, and testing on top of your testing. Knowing WHERE the virus has spread to allows you to organize containment. That's what the situation in S. Korea has shown. When you find a "hotspot" beginning to emerge, comes the next part.
2. Isolate the area in question to the fullest extent you can. That's what China did. And if you look at their current situation, that strategy worked (for the moment). And for a case failure, look at Italy.
Restrictions of your "civil liberties" via cancellation of events, bans on air travel, and in the worst case scenarios, severe lock-downs on personal travels, actually will SHORTEN the severity of the outbreak. Repeat, at the expense of some short-term inconvenience, the long-term situation will be much better. That's a trade-off that I'm personally willing to make.
The majority of the people Corvid-19 will kill would have died within 5-10 years in any case, the people with PTSD, developmental problems etc. are unlikely to die of Corvid-19. That's the thing - there's very little overlap of the two groups.Quote:
None of that shit matters if they are dead. That dog doesn't hunt, in my world.:inquisitive:
1.5 million people in the UK are not going to be isolate, no human contact, for at least 12 weeks. It's on day two and it's pretty rough, I can tell you, not seeing another human being.
People need to eat, you know. We are due to lose 95% of our importing capacity from the EU at the end of the year. Do you want us to do something about it, or do you want to ignore it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Very recent experience (current and ongoing in fact) shows that people anticipating shortages will strip the shelves bare, leaving nothing for those who can't get there in time (like NHS staff). This is with no current problems with the supply chain. When there will be problems with the supply chain, is this going to get better? How long do you want this state of affairs to go on for?Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Whilst all this hysteria about Covid-19 is going on, please do make sure to take good care of yourselves. Unfortunately someone I know just passed away with sepsis. I don't know the full story, but I heard they were resistant in getting help. So please, reach out and let people know, and if you are really unwell do get treatment asap.
So far, that hasn't been the case in China, which is the only example we have to work off of currently.Quote:
You can't full eradicate the virus so as soon as the measures are lifted it flairs back up
And you base this prediction on........:shrug:Quote:
my prediction is that they will lose control as soon as restrictions are eased
There is no epidemiological evidence that would support that statement. You have absolutely no idea who's going to become infected and who is not. What we do know is that if you break the contagion chain, less people will be exposed, and therefore less people get infected.Quote:
The majority of the people Corvid-19 will kill would have died within 5-10 years in any case, the people with PTSD, developmental problems etc. are unlikely to die of Corvid-19. That's the thing - there's very little overlap of the two groups.
And again, this "I don't really give a shit how many old folks will die, cuz' they're just Walking Dead anyways" spiel is not only twisting potential fatalities to suit your whims (elderly people who were going to die soon anyway, as opposed to "millions of PTSD kids"), it's just another form of racism, AFAIAC, that we're going to start seeing more of; whether that be Asians, Iranians, Italians, or the elderly (ie the "Boomer Remover slur currently in vogue here in the US).
That's not how it works. In order to contract SARS-CoV-2, you have to ingest respiratory fluids from an infected host; either directly from being coughed/sneezed upon (or as a corollary, inhale infected aerosol), or by touching a surface laden with viable virus, and then touching your face. The epidemiologists have more or less determined 3m (or 6ft) is a safe enough distancing to cut your chances of inhaling infected aerosol drastically. Nothing I have read to date says no human contact, period.Quote:
1.5 million people in the UK are not going to be isolate, no human contact, for at least 12 weeks
This is not the H1N1 of 1918 (and by many accounts it should be called the Stars and Stripes Flu, because it likely started here in the US, or at the very least, spread to Europe by all the troops we were sending there), and there were little to no containment protocols in place at that time.Quote:
Expereince with the Spanish Flu shows quite clearly that these sorts of control measures are only effective whilst they remain in place
It is interesting to note how two cities in America fared drastically different during that outbreak:
https://www.wsls.com/features/2020/0...more-opposite/
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/...785692bb5.html
Quote:
In early October, city health commissioner Dr. Max C. Starkloff ordered the closure of schools, movie theaters, saloons, sporting events and other public gathering spots. Churches were told to suspend Sunday services. At the time, with nearly 800,000 residents, St. Louis was among the top 10 largest American cities.
Quote:
“In an epidemic, somebody has to have the authority to make those kinds of decisions that infringe on people’s rights,” said Pamela Walker, who was the city’s health director from 2007 to 2015. “He had been health director for long enough to know his city and how people interacted. He also had the public’s trust.”
Quote:
With the flu continuing its rampage, Starkloff imposed a stricter quarantine in November, closing down all businesses with few exceptions including banks, newspapers, embalmers and coffin makers, according to Post-Dispatch archives.
It was true for 1918, and it's true now. Quarantine works....but the key is trust. Trust that the people in charge know what they're doing (or in China, trust or else....), which is why we here in the States are in for far more pain than has been endured so far....our leadership sucks.Quote:
Thanks to the quarantine, St. Louis’ death rate was lowest among the 10 biggest cities at the time. In Philadelphia, where bodies piled up on sidewalks when the morgues overflowed, the death rate was nearly twice as high.
The current panic is not just about shortages - it's about fear of disease and fear of quarantine. Principally it is about being pulled out of your house on a stretcher or in a body bag covered in your own faeces.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Papers I have read comparing this to the flu pandemic, noting that cities which lifted restrictions saw flareups - because people brought the disease in. The comparison between 1918 US and the modern world is relevant because it's easier to travel from the US to Australia today than it was from East to west back then.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Now, first off, gonna point this out - stop swearing - it's not helpful and all it does is antagonise me.Quote:
There is no epidemiological evidence that would support that statement. You have absolutely no idea who's going to become infected and who is not. What we do know is that if you break the contagion chain, less people will be exposed, and therefore less people get infected.
And again, this "I don't really give a shit how many old folks will die, cuz' they're just Walking Dead anyways" spiel is not only twisting potential fatalities to suit your whims (elderly people who were going to die soon anyway, as opposed to "millions of PTSD kids"), it's just another form of racism, AFAIAC, that we're going to start seeing more of; whether that be Asians, Iranians, Italians, or the elderly (ie the "Boomer Remover slur currently in vogue here in the US).
Corvid-19 kills the old and infirm, children are the least affected, to date no child had died of the disease. So, your public health equation here is older people with comorbid conditions that make them high risk dying from Corvid-19 vs the young living with PTSD or developmental problems. You need to model how many "PTSD Kids" you're going to end up with, their long-term burden on the health system and compare that to the deaths from Corvid-19, and the after-affects of that.
That's public policy - right now you and your emotional well-being are deemed less valuable than the physical well-being of your grandfather. In the short-term that's a good trade, but the longer you make that call the worse the trade it. Also - you need to ask if Pops wants you to make that trade - in the UK the answer has been an emphatic "no" from the Oxygen and Zimmer-frame brigade.
This may well be a case of "Better Dead than Red" but it's more likely just a more pragmatic and less narcissistic attitude to death accompanied by a recognition that we've all got to go some time and Pops is gonna go first, so he's gonna live life whilst he can.
Meanwhile, his Millennial grandchildren wring their hands over how to cope with his death.
"Do not leave your home for any reason, do not have visitors" is the message. Don't shoot the messenger.Quote:
That's not how it works. In order to contract SARS-CoV-2, you have to ingest respiratory fluids from an infected host; either directly from being coughed/sneezed upon (or as a corollary, inhale infected aerosol), or by touching a surface laden with viable virus, and then touching your face. The epidemiologists have more or less determined 3m (or 6ft) is a safe enough distancing to cut your chances of inhaling infected aerosol drastically. Nothing I have read to date says no human contact, period.
Spanish Flu ran from 1918 to 1922 - how long do you plan to keep this quarantine going? Bear in mind, you can't quarantine Africa and South America because the Third World can't survive like that - and actually we'd all starve if they tried.Quote:
It was true for 1918, and it's true now. Quarantine works....but the key is trust. Trust that the people in charge know what they're doing (or in China, trust or else....), which is why we here in the States are in for far more pain than has been endured so far....our leadership sucks.
A complete a total lockdown for three months might clear it from the UK, but inevitably a private plane would land at a private airstrip and it would all start over, or refugees would come over in a boat. For Continental Europe or the US? Forget it.
Quote:
Papers I have read comparing this to the flu pandemic, noting that cities which lifted restrictions saw flareups - because people brought the disease in. The comparison between 1918 US and the modern world is relevant because it's easier to travel from the US to Australia today than it was from East to west back then.
Comparisons to the 1918 H1N1 outbreak only go so far. Different times, different medical practices, etc. But certain things hold true in both cases---quarantine worked then, and it works now. Break the contagion chains.Quote:
Corvid-19 kills the old and infirm, children are the least affected, to date no child had died of the disease. So, your public health equation here is older people with comorbid conditions that make them high risk dying from Corvid-19 vs the young living with PTSD or developmental problems.
We better hope that all the little genetic permutations SARS-CoV-2 is conducting as we speak, doesn't result in something far more deadly as happened in the fall of 1918 with H1N1.
You need to check the facts on the no child has died statement. Though still rare, it has happened. and the recent trend in NYC is showing an alarming trend: (from the link posted earlier by Viking)
More infections, more chances to die.Quote:
Over half of all Covid-19 patients in New York are between 18 and 49, the state says.
And this:
https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...ction-covid-19
Quote:
“We do know that children tend to have more mild infection, have more mild disease, but we have seen [at least one child] die from this infection,” Maria Van Kerkhove, the Covid-19 technical lead at the World Health Organization, said in a press conference on March 16. “We can’t say universally that it’s mild in children, so it’s important that we protect children as a vulnerable population.”
So the risk is very low that children die from SARS-CoV-2, but if they get sick enough, they could die from something else.Quote:
Right now, the data on Covid-19’s effects on the young are sparse, but recent studies show that even with children, some groups are more vulnerable than others depending on age and health conditions. Some children with Covid-19 can still experience serious lung disease. Kids with simultaneous respiratory infections can be more vulnerable to Covid-19. Infants without mature immune systems can get sick from the virus. Yet compared to adults, Covid-19 appears to be less severe in most kids.
I don't swear often, but I consider your logic concerning letting the elderly die so some unknown number of children don't suffer from PTSD, offensive, and being 67, that antagonizes me. Hence the harsher language.Quote:
Now, first off, gonna point this out - stop swearing - it's not helpful and all it does is antagonise me.
The kind of talk I'm referring to....Quote:
This may well be a case of "Better Dead than Red" but it's more likely just a more pragmatic and less narcissistic attitude to death accompanied by a recognition that we've all got to go some time and Pops is gonna go first, so he's gonna live life whilst he can.
That's only if you have already contracted the virus. Sensible, no?Quote:
"Do not leave your home for any reason, do not have visitors" is the message. Don't shoot the messenger.
After a 3 month quarantine, if you require ALL arriving passengers to be tested and sequestered for a period of time, the chance for re-infection is slim to none. If a quicker test becomes available, like the genetic code tracer being tested, sequestering time can be reduced or eliminated.Quote:
A complete a total lockdown for three months might clear it from the UK, but inevitably a private plane would land at a private airstrip and it would all start over, or refugees would come over in a boat. For Continental Europe or the US? Forget it.
To be precise, it appears that one 14-year-old boy died in China from the disease. It might be worth mentioning that a 12-year-old girl with "no pre-existing conditions" is currently on a ventilator in the US (source for both), and that an 18-year-old has died of the disease in England.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
No idea idea how this disease compares to the flu in terms of severity for those under 18, would be interesting to see; we might not have enough data available yet.
And yet you are ok with a much bigger death toll than effective measures would cut it down to.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Having looked around for commentary on the supermarket shortages, which affect 100% of adults, the cited reason isn't what you describe. The reason for shortages is to stock up in case of lockdown, and carrying on from that, to buy while they can find them.
Again, people need to eat. How do you propose to feed the nation? There are shortages in the retailers when the supplies aren't an issue. How do you propose to feed the nation when supplies are an issue? Assurances made last year that warnings were exaggerated and that the nation will find a way through have been proven to be wrong; the supply chain has not been cut, and the situation warned about has already happened. The nation has not found a way through. The problem is there. How do you propose to solve it? Or how do you propose to alleviate it?
NB. these are not rhetorical questions. If I ask a question, I intend to have an answer myself. The question is, what is your answer?
Britain is famously rabies-free. All incoming pets have to be quarantined. The process has proven to be effective.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
In China, people are subjected to a series of tests, presumably each of longer duration. They've got the final test down to 4 hours or something similar. The video I posted describes the process.
Apparently this crisis has moved into the deep end of politics - using emergency powers and suspending Habeas Corpus.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...avirus-970935/
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-powers-140023
The discussion going on here right now is pretty dumb.
1. If we hold out for two months, cases dip during the summer, and spike again in the fall, then already we will have bought ourselves a great deal of time to ramp up necessary production, install necessary testing infrastructure and healthcare capacity, and hold down the overall mortality rate. A million dead spread over a year, even with some spikes, is better than a single tidal wave that contributes to millions of excess deaths.
2. Last I heard, people aged 20-50 are going to be infected at similar rates, and those infections - while less serious overall - still entail tens of millions of younger people hospitalized, killing and harming other younger people with COVID-19 due to overrun, killing and harming other younger people due to all the other health problems and emergencies going unaddressed - to say nothing of the tens of millions of other younger people living with weeks of mild-to-moderate walking pneumonia, sure to be the most hellish experience of their lives, many of them coming out with permanent organ damage.
And also, what the fuck is anyone on about wrt human contact. You can talk 6 feet apart, or video chat. This is the 21st century.
Edit: A point about N95 mask production, there is a bottleneck in production due to the little-known complexity of the design and needed equipment. A machine to produce melt-blown fabric for the mask filters, without which you may as well wear a bandana, costs millions of dollars and takes half a year to manufacture.
Oh will you just stop banging on about Brexit, it's no longer relevant.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
My answer is, based on the Italian experience this will sort itself out - in fact to an extent it already is. before I got sick I saw tinned tomatoes in Sainsbury's and lots of bog roll in Waitrose.
Anyway - I already said, a while back, that if this carries on they'll move to rationing. You'll download an app on your smartphone, load it up with credit and use that to pay the supermarket instead of money. The App will track how much bog roll you buy and if you buy it every day you'll get cut off.
I stand corrected, although two death, one with underlying conditions, out of 200,000 cases is still a very low incidence.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
Something to point out is that the US and the UK are both suffering an obesity epidemic and whilst I wouldn't suggest that this alone will kill you irrc the majority of Americans are now overweight, which means they're unfit. That's going to reduce your positive outcomes.
Speaking of positive outcomes, whilst I'm not suffering too badly yet I really need to get some sleep.
If we could just have one justified OK Boomer moment, this is the very essence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bgCCXSrwHA
1. To what extent? From the comments I've seen so far, it's not sorting itself out. Toilet roll and sanitiser are notoriously missing from the shelves. So is pasta, and other basics. From my own experience, something is present on the shelves, but what it is varies from day to day. The above listed is never present though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
2. How long do you want rationing to go on for?
3. Does everyone operate via phone apps? What happens to those who don't work that way?
Our supply chains are currently intact and we are already seeing empty shelves, contrary to assurances that we will find a way through. And you still want to add breaking the supply chain on top of that.
Oh, and this isn't about Brexit. This is about supplies. This is about feeding the nation.
I have to perfectly honest, and I am sorry if this is derailing the conversation or appearing insensitive, but I am shocked that being alone bothers people so much. I never understood the fear, really. I am not talking about vulnerable people like the old and those with mental issues, since those people have special needs. I spent quite a bit of time alone when I was younger and I continue to be more alone than the average person. I can't say I am a purely solitary person, but I can find plenty to do that doesn't involve other people. Books, games, drawing, taking a walk in the city cemetery, working in my workshop, working on my project car....
If the goal is purely isolation and not necessarily avoiding social contact, you can add old-school forums like this one to the mix. I also think that solitary contemplation is extremely important for maintaining a healthy state of mind. I can't imagine being overloaded with an endless mess of worries and not taking the time to process things.
Also, this isn't against those who must face isolation for over a month, or those with money concerns.
I have been at odds with several others here concerning the right of governments to limit their citizens civil liberties in order to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. I support the need for containment methods even as far as a short-term lock-down, in order to break the chains of contagion.
During the course of these conversations I have been asked where my limit was; just how far was too far. Well, some of these methods are going too far:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...-power/608560/
Quote:
On Friday, the Hungarian government sent a bill to Parliament that will give dictatorial powers to the prime minister, Viktor Orbán, in the name of the “emergency.” For an indefinite period of time, he will be able to ignore whichever laws he wishes, without consulting legislators; elections and referenda are to be suspended. Breaking of quarantine will become a crime, punishable by a prison sentence. The spread of false information or other information that causes “disturbance” or “unrest” will also be a crime, also punishable by a prison sentence. It is unclear who will define false: The language is vague enough that it could include almost any criticism of the government’s public-health policy.
Quote:
A similarly abrupt transition is taking place in Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu—still prime minister despite having lost a recent election—has enacted an emergency decree that allows him to postpone the start of his own criminal trial and that prevents the newly elected Israeli Parliament, in which the opposition has a majority, from convening. He has also given himself huge new powers of surveillance without any oversight. Institutions and tactics normally used to track terrorists will now be used to monitor quarantine compliance, follow average citizens’ activity and movement, and keep track of their temperatures and health status.
Too far. Fortunately for Americans, such a request to suspend "habeus corpus" will never make its' way past Congress, but in other countries with more authoritarian governments, such new sweeping requests are likely to see little resistance.Quote:
The Department of Justice [here in the US], Politico has reported, has already asked Congress for powers to detain Americans without trial, even though such powers are not remotely necessary. Those lawmakers who resist these and similar measures to come should prepare to be accused of endangering their constituents’ lives.
So for me, this is too far.
The War On Terror has shredded habeus corpus for years. And just as the USA hasn't declared war but just happens to end up in wars, they'll just use different terminology to achieve the same thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
~:smoking:
Point taken. Trump is certainly the type of leader that will try to take advantage of any opportunity to accumulate more power. 9/11 was more like Pearl Harbor; an attack on US soil that had the effect (more temporary for 9/11) of creating a unified effort.Quote:
The War On Terror has shredded habeus corpus for years
Don't know if that kind of sentiment is present on this occasion. Won't stop them from trying.....
For you this still seems to be about Brexit. The Loo roll situation is already getting sorted, and you can still find soap, although it's in short supply. potatoes and greens are becoming a bit difficult at Supermarkets but local grocers are still stocked. Pasta and hand sanitiser are the only things really out of supply.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
You wanted a solution, I offered you one, the alternative is paper ration books - which might also happen. Bearing in mind the elderly aren't allowed to leave their houses their inability to work their smartphones might be a moot point. Supermarkets are being re-stocked every day, it's only the continued panic which is emptying shelves. The panic is, fundamentally, about a fear of disease, fear of quarantine, and not a fear of shortages. This is completely different to Brexit.
Different people are affected by isolation differently, for you this may be no issue, for me it's a bit problem - I haven't seen any of my family or my dear friends in three weeks when normally I would expect to see most of them every week. You also have to consider that many people live alone, or in house-shares like me, and are not with their families. If you are parents locked up with your children in your house with a garden it's completely different to if you are a single person living on your own in a block of flats.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrossLOPER
How this affects you, your circumstances, your personal psychology, will dictate how you see the measures being taken.
I already referenced Israel, didn't I?Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
In France you can be arrested for leaving your house without a write from the gendarmes - this is for two weeks right now, but that will probably be extended.
Also, watch Poland.
And.....?Quote:
I already referenced Israel, didn't I?
In France you can be arrested for leaving your house without a write from the gendarmes - this is for two weeks right now, but that will probably be extended.
Also, watch Poland.
In personality theory, there is a facet of extraversion/introversion called sociability.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrossLOPER
Those who score high on that trait prefer to be around other people either all or most of the time (depending how high their score is), and the more people they are around at the same time, the better.
For those who score low, it's the opposite: they prefer to be on their own most or all of the time, and they prefer smaller groups to larger ones.
Most people score somewhere in between and are fine with both spending a lot of time on their own and a lot of time socializing.
Bottom line: people have very different personalities.
And Collectivism is undermining Liberal Democracy. The Lefties will try to consign this to "a few bad apples" but it's just the thin end of the wedge. The longer this goes on the more desperate people and politicians become and the more of our democratic principles will be sacrificed for what are, ultimately, only a small fraction of our population.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Predictably, those who warn against this are demonised for "sacrificing" the casualties of an epidemic, as though they were wielding the scythe rather than nature herself.
There are three choices, as I see it:Quote:
The longer this goes on the more desperate people and politicians become and the more of our democratic principles will be sacrificed for what are, ultimately, only a small fraction of our population
1. Do nothing. Let the firestorm rage across the planet until it burns itself out (likely millions die); pay or coerce healthy survivors to become "blood bags" for the rest of society (Mad Max, anyone?)
2. Temporary (length will vary) suspension of any kind of gathering that puts more than 5-10 people in close proximity; only essential services open like grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, etc. (tens of thousands die)
3. Martial law. Nobody goes anywhere without law enforcement approval; spot checks required for infection, no travel what-so-ever in or out of metropolitan areas. (likely deaths can be limited to 4 figures).
Take your pick and deal with it. I'm absolutely tired of hearing about this "small fraction" of our society, or it's mainly the old, blah, blah, blah. Do your homework and decide for yourself what's the best course of action. For me, history has shown that quarantines work. They've worked in the past, sometimes with dramatic results (as in the Tale of Two Cities links I posted earlier), and they work now, as evidenced by the results achieved in China.
My state here in the US is going on a 3-week lock-down effective midnite tonight. We've cases sky-rocket in the last 5 days (as predicted by current epidemiological maps); some of that is due to a large increase in the amount of testing, and and unknown amount of that increase can be attributed to the ho-hum attitude displayed by some segments of our populace in disregarding social-distancing. Now it's law for the next 3 weeks...keep your ass at home unless you need supplies (which I've already been doing the last two weeks).
No Mas about this crap from me.~:smoking:
It's nowhere near that simple. Run the actual numbers, in the UK the death toll from "do nothing" is reckoned at 500,000 out of 66.44 million over 12 months. Roughly 1500 people die a day in the UK, so we're looking at an 80% increase over 12 months, although the peak will be much worse than that. The real danger here is not the Coronavirus, it's the stress on the healthcare system where everybody who doesn't have coronavirus getting pushed outQuote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
These big, round, neat numbers are of course really only vague guesses.
Weren't you advocating rationing earlier? That measure has never been taken outside war, except for the period following WWII when much of the world was in ruins. If you hate collectivism so much, why are you advocating the most collectivist of all measures? Surely you'd want to look at non-collectivist ways of mitigating shortages. Such as removing barriers to trade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
My point which you seem to consistently duck under is that we're experiencing shortages at the user end despite there being no shortages at the supplier end. Once we experience shortages at the supplier end (we are due to reduce imports from the EU by 95% at the end of the year), how is this going to improve? We've seen that the users will not sort things out themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
BTW, if someone has multiple phones and thus multiple IDs, what's to stop them from using your app multiple times to get around rationing? Are you relying on people to play fair, despite abundant evidence that people have not been playing fair?
No, I was advocating calm but predicting rationing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
You are still making this about Bexit, Hungary just become a tyrannical dictatorship - stop talking about Brexit. It's not important.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
It's not about Brexit similarly to how The 1918 flu wasn't about WWI.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
I just want to make a little announcement from our side - please, stay safe, stay in your house, comment on the Org all you like (you're all welcome here 24/7) but just stay safe and be protected!
The Org is here, we're more than happy to host you while you pass the idle time in quarantine / isolation but above all, stay safe you and your families!
:bow:
A large part of our diet is imported, with food imports coming mainly from the EU. Our truck drivers currently make 30,000 journeys per year to and from EU countries. After we leave, on current conditions, this will be cut to 1,500. A reduction of 95%. How is this not important?Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
In the current event, even with the 30,000 journeys to and from the EU, our supermarket shelves empty at the first anticipation of shortages. How is this going to get better when there are actual shortages in supply?
Watching the movie Contagion today was a bad idea. Good film though.
GOOD NEWS: New York has ramped up its testing capacity from 1,000 people a day 10 days ago to 16,000 a day. (78,000 cumulative tests)
Monkey Paw: That makes us the COVID-19 epicenter of the United States. Over half of the confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases have been discovered in New York. As of Monday, cases in the state account for 58 percent of cases nationwide, and including 33 percent of the U.S. deaths from the disease.
"Predictably, those who warn against this are demonised for "sacrificing" the casualties of an epidemic, as though they were wielding the scythe rather than nature herself."
I have to highlight this because it is such a profound typifying statement of conservative philosophy.
Disease, poverty, hierarchy - to a conservative all of these are merely natural, immutable characteristics of life. Liberals and leftists understand them as properly political and policy outcomes.
We've heard this story before.Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
I did happen to just read this fairly relevant piece about how life in authoritarian countries is largely similar to life in liberal democracies - people just have different expectations about legitimate political behavior.
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/201...-fascism-trump
Now, China is already authoritarian, so they don't need the help. Reportedly they are beginning to loosen restrictions once again, and all the most recent new cases have been arrivals into the country.
Let's see how successful they are in guarding against reinfection through normal commerce.
Well, no, because the Spanish Flue was a direct consequence of the upheaval of WW1 - as much as Pannonian might like to claim otherwise Brexit has not caused Corvid-19.Quote:
Originally Posted by CrossLOPER
UK in virtual lockdown: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52012432
For at least three weeks but I'm betting at least three month and I'm expecting six months to a year.
Possibly not as stringent right now but it's telling the Government wanted this Bill on a two-year renewal, not six months, initially.
Do you remember what Bush's plans for the DoD were before 9/11?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
No, nobody does - same thing.
Now move on because we might all be dead in six months and this discussion is pointless.
https://i.imgur.com/jm83yrU.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/CVPYfue.jpg
Re: recent Trump news, and maybe relevant to the local Org discourse:
https://i.imgur.com/tOH9C1v.jpg
A certain member is straight Fox-Newsified at this point.
https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/s...45135129346050
Conservatives, pre-coronavirus: "Stalin and Mao were monsters for letting people die in order to advance their economic agendas."
Conservatives, now: "A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic."
I mean, the economy is going to be in dire straits either way. This guy just makes me shake my head honestly. It's too late to go back on what they've already decided, then you just exacerbate the situation. Texas decided to sit in the middle of doing something or doing nothing, luckily some of the larger counties are locking down, which is promising albeit later than ideal. Our entire government seems like a train wreck.
At worst 1% of us may be dead in 6 months, which is acceptable to some.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
You've been complaining about lack of human contact, which you deem to be unacceptably damaging to our society according to your imaginations of domestic beatings and suicides. But food supply isn't so important that you want it looked at, despite there being daily evidence that we do not cope.
I never claimed it, so don't admire that strawman too much. I'm talking about food supply, which this crisis has shown to be an issue even when the supply chain is intact. Common sense would suggest that, if you can't cope when the supply chain is working, you're going to cope even worse when it is broken.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
Better watch something by Quentin Quarantino.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hooahguy
Hunters has a good Tarantino vibe.
But I am tempted to buy Contagion for the funsies...
On the other hand, making sweeping negative statements about other groups is probably something most people can get behind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Given the 7 or so millennia of human history that supports your statement, it is practically a cliche.Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking
[Removed]
This is abusive language and is not healthy. I urge you to reach out for real counseling with a licensed therapist which is still possible over the internet or phone during these times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
You are being intentionally dense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
WWI was a factor in the spread, but isn't directly related to the disease or the condition of preparedness of the world for an outbreak. Brexit makes it more difficult to restrain/ease the current outbreak because new supply lines have not been established.
Do you need to see a therapist every week, or are you just upset you can't meet with people for a while? If it is the latter, you need to really calm down. You can skype or discord or whatever. Actually, you can skype or discord with a therapist, so I don't really see the issue, unless your therapist really wants an excuse for a vacation right now. If that is the case, your therapist kind of sucks and hates making money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus
A small announcement from the moderation team - we are very aware of the comments made earlier. As per the rules of the Org and obviously our gentleman's agreement with every single patron, the well-being of EVERY Org patron is the utmost importance for us.
This is not something we take lightly. And we are looking carefully at every single post especially in delicate topics, like this one.
There are those who feel particularly distressed or depressed at living with the conditions imposed by the pandemic response. To the extent they were satisfied with their pre-crisis lives, they can hold to that feeling as a lodestar. And definitely don't personalize global politics, both because it is unlikely a narrow perspective will offer insight or sound guidance, and because it will just feel like the whole world is conspiring against you and that's a scary and awful feeling.
Some great COVID-19 resources I've come across.
NYT Graph of Coronavirus Deaths over Time by US State and Country - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...y-country.html
Crude Polemical Three-Month US Fatality Projections According to Degree of Response - https://covidactnow.org/
For example:
Attachment 23445
Attachment 23446
Finally, finally, I found a database tracking all US COVID-19 testing! https://covidtracking.com/data/
Still amazing that we haven't caught up with South Korea, and that New York continues to maintain 25%+ of cumulative testing.
[Correction: South Korea has slowed testing dramatically in the last couple weeks, so with ~360K tests conducted the US has exceeded SK's current count of ~350K]
It goes well beyond the abstract moral and empirical qualities of his position.Quote:
Originally Posted by Csargo
This is a wealthy and politically powerful man, almost literally telling us "Some of you may die, but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make." It's the profligate general commending the valorous sacrifices of the army man on behalf of the nation while sending his army forward after a nugatory objective. His risk compared to the rest of his age cohort is small, and he is certainly not speaking for himself in any meaningful way when advancing putative tradeoffs between the wellbeing of elderly populations and the continence of the economy.
(Regarding which, see yet again:)
Quote:
The choice is not
a) everyone stays home, economy hurt
or
b) everyone goes out again, economy fine
it's
a) everyone stays home, economy hurt
or
b) everyone goes out again, millions die, hospitals collapse, social chaos, economy hurt just as bad if not worse
It's not the men who have the political connections, the money, the priority of healthcare, the advantage and opportunity for having achieved higher baseline health who would be worst affected as part of the equation on the weighing of competing interests. It's the poor, the black, the Latino, the rural...
We should not begin to pretend that these rascals should even potentially be humored until they have displayed documentation refusing all but palliative medical treatment in the event of illness.
ATTENTION AMERICANS
Here is a resource that collects reports on grocery store crowding, availability of product, senior hours, etc.
https://survey123.arcgis.com/share/e...iIkR1oiZ0_kK2k
https://htorpey.maps.arcgis.com/apps...b71a8c74cc18b1
Unfortunately, it's not currently helpful because there's almost no user base. But in general, crisis or not, tools like this hopefully become the SOP of the cybernetic future.
The new party line: https://www.esquire.com/news-politic...people-stocks/
Good satire: I regret that I have but one grandparent to give for my countryQuote:
Originally Posted by Umberto Eco
Quote:
“No one reached out to me and said, as a senior citizen, ‘Are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’ And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in. … I just think there’s lots of grandparents out there in this country like me.”
— Dan Patrick, lieutenant governor of Texas
“We have to go back to work much sooner than people thought.”
— President Trump, who wants the country “up and raring to go by Easter”
YOURCOUNTRYSTOCK MARKETNEEDS YOU! IS ASKING YOU TO GIVE YOURSELF, NEEDLESSLY AND TO NO ULTIMATE LONG-TERM BENEFIT!
Brave boomers, hardy millennials, Gen X, Gen Z, rise to the call! Will you make the ultimate sacrifice so that Donald Trump’s chain hotels will not have to remain closed for more than 14 days? Will you lay down your precious life, against expert medical advice, for literally no reason at all?
No death is too unnecessary, no gain too small.
Ask yourself whether your so-called reason for not volunteering your life in the hope that Donald Trump’s branded properties will not lose another day’s income is not instead a selfish excuse! Is your not getting to share the world with your grandchildren so great a prize that Donald Trump should be forced to be marginally worse off for a brief time? Think of all the money he has given up already to be president, which, he assured us, is LOTS — even when you remember what he gained back through emoluments!
Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic
Dare you not requite his sacrifice with all you have to give? This is rude and selfish of you, to say that your life is worth more than someone’s money. And I am not speaking of the money of people who need to go to work to feed their families, who are being devastated by this, who might be helped with a spreading of the social safety net. I am speaking of something greater. I am speaking of the stocks!
AD
We have the ability to support the individuals and businesses who would suffer from a shutdown of the length medically necessary to stem the virus, but why bother? When instead we can toss aside precious, irreplaceable human beings? Now is not the time for sensible measures. Think about what a good idea World War I was! Think of the stirring music and the posters! Is now any less the time for a senseless, massive loss of human life that will ultimately devastate the country far more than a failure to return to work for the months required? We cannot put a price on what will be lost — so how much could it possibly be worth?
Doctors, why do you hesitate to fling in your lot? Is the single mask you have been issued not sufficient? Do you not know that there is MONEY somewhere, dwindling? I would suggest that you plaster dollar bills to your face, but they are all needed to bolster the Businessmen in this difficult time. Yes, you have a family, but is the family LEGAL TENDER? Then why do you fear that you might never see it again?
What joy are people? What is so precious in being alive, a human being with the ability to experience this maddening and brilliant world, when you know that somewhere, the Dow is going down instead of up? The chance to make it go up instead of down — even for a flicker of a moment — is that not worth everything? What makes life worth living? I am pretty sure it is not “possessing any connection whatsoever to other human beings”; or else the president has been doing it very wrong.
Here is your chance to serve! And there is still a place in the line for the people who did not ask to be volunteered — but you must help them! You can sacrifice them, too, by your decision, because this disease conveniently does not understand who is stepping up and who is not.
Just as we do not make any attempt to regulate traffic so that people do not perish needlessly in car accidents, just as when buildings are aflame we do not keep people from congregating inside them, so, too, must we now rush back to normalcy, at an unthinkable cost, to no purpose whatsoever.
We’ll have the country open by Easter! Think what more glorious fate there could possibly be than to die for nothing at all!
A day in the life of a hero:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/24/211929...twitter-thread
Aesop wrote it first: Trump quietly seeks allies' coronavirus help even as he insists 'a lot is being done'
Wow. This clip of Trump at his presser should probably be training material for resident psychiatrists.Quote:
The US has reached out to South Korea and other nations for help in getting enough supplies to fight the coronavirus pandemic in a sharp counterpoint to President Donald Trump's narrative that the domestic response is enough to combat the crisis.
Seoul's Blue House issued a statement describing a Tuesday call between Trump and President Moon Jae-In that focused on the outbreak. Trump used the conversation to ask Moon if South Korea could provide medical equipment to the United States, the Blue House said. A White House readout of the same call made no mention of Trump's appeal.
The White House request to South Korea appears to be just one of several it has made to allies and other countries for equipment to fight the novel coronavirus. Foreign Policy magazine reported that the State Department sent US ambassadors in eastern Europe and Eurasia to ask their hosts to "ramp up exports and production of life-saving medical equipment and protective gear for the United States."
[...]
The Pentagon has expressed its thanks to South Korea for supplying coronavirus tests for US military use until American testing equipment arrived on the peninsula. On Tuesday, the Blue House said that South Korea was once again happy to come to Washington's aid.
According to the Blue House, Moon responded to Trump's request for equipment by saying, "If there's spare in the country, (we) will support as much as possible," and telling Trump that FDA approval might be needed for the medical equipment. According to the statement, Trump said he would take action so any South Korean exports could be approved immediately.
https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1242231879488716800
And while raving about the beautiful vision of packed churches on Easter Day, he said the quiet part yet again.
Quote:
"They had things in there that were terrible — windmills all over the place ... windmills that kill the birds and ruin the real estate, right?" Trump said.
Washington must focus on "the workers," the president said. "Workers first."
Trump said in his second interview on Fox that he wasn't concerned about the costs associated with what could be a $2 trillion stimulus package, because he considered that to be an investment.
"It's not really spending, because a lot of it is helping companies" through loans, he said. "It's loaded to save corporations," he said, specifically mentioning Boeing.
Always remember, this is what they believe. For a parallel example, look at what Baba Yaga has to say about coronavirus (hint: take a close look at her cite).
More on the Republican party line, literally lol:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
No conscience. But a bill appears set to pass today.
A study challenging the approach taken by the Imperial College. Author suggests the global pandemic may be at a more advanced stage than is typically thought, with the current testing regime everywhere massively underreporting the true scope of contagion. If anything, these controversies are a reminder of how fast this has hit us and how little we know for certain. No antibody test for prior infection has yet been developed to my knowledge, for example.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...lf-of-u-k.html
Gotta love this tweet:
Almost fell out of my chair laughing~DQuote:
Inability to smell and/or taste is a symptom of Covid-19. Inability to read a simple chart is a symptom of being Ann Coulter.
No ability to think for themselves and post something original, either:clown:Quote:
No conscience
With the United States now claiming the third highest number of SARS-CoV-2 cases identified, the situation is pretty much like a "bullet train" heading across the nation. This woman's situation is being repeated over and over again:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52019509
Quote:
Frustrated and even more ill, Dr Bahorik calls the Department of Health. Despite exhibiting symptoms, and given her age and previous spells of pneumonia, they were inflexible. On protesting, a nurse suggests she speak to her congressman. She calls the office of Senator Bob Casey, where she is advised to contact the Department of Health.
Quote:
After several terrible days of sickness, Dr Bahorik hears of eight coronavirus testing sites in the neighbouring county of Lehigh Valley. It is an hour's drive and she is feeling weak but goes to the test centre in Macungie, Pennsylvania. Once again she is told that because she had not travelled to a high risk country or been in known contact with someone with coronavirus, she cannot have a test. Having once been a doctor in the US Army Reserve, Dr Bahorik contacts her Veterans Affairs hospital. They later tell her that they do not have Covid-19 testing kits. By this stage, Dr Bahorik's chest pain and coughing has worsened.
And yet, our Fearless Leader gets on the TV saying how "beautiful" it would be to see churches full for Easter Sunday.Quote:
"They keep reporting that there are so few cases in my county, but they are not testing," Dr Bahorik tells me. "I feel like I've done as much as I can, but that the system has beaten me down," she says. "I almost feel like I'm a lone voice screaming, 'Open your eyes, we have to do something about this!'"
Yep. Fear porn. Whelp....if churches fill for Easter Sunday in two and a half weeks......be very afraid if you live in the US.:shame:
Testing based on coming into contact with someone who's been tested positive is stupid, considering everything we know there's probably tens of thousands of people infected without even knowing if not more than that.