EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

if i were germany, no, in being a regionally insular nation whith little historic cultural or linguistic reach.

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Funny.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

that is not the position that britain finds itself in, and it is beyond dispute that the regime that operates against non-EU nationals is punitive in a way that EU nationals would shudder to experience.

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You could just as well have corrected me when I took your argument for granted, because it's not even true that most migrants come from the EU: https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/

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Estimated non-EU net migration, meanwhile, is 227,000 a year—the highest level recorded since 2011. It has been almost consistently higher than EU migration for decades.

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So what exactly is your problem here? It appears that non-EU migrants have no real problems coming to the UK, there are even more of them than EU migrants.

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Originally Posted by Husar

You could just as well have corrected me when I took your argument for granted, because it's not even true that most migrants come from the EU: https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/



So what exactly is your problem here? It appears that non-EU migrants have no real problems coming to the UK, there are even more of them than EU migrants.

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you are correct, there is more RoW immigration than EU immigration, but in the years leading up to the brexit vote it was nearly 50:50:
https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
i remain perfectly comfortable in my original assertion that there was an injustice in 7% of the worlds population occupying over/nearly/slightly-less-than half the net migration, as contrasted to the other 90% of the worlds population.

lol, "no real problem"? the regime for RoR immigration [is] punative compared for that of EU citizens under freedom of movement, and it has become more punitive as a response to increased pressure from eu immigration.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

you are correct, there is more RoW immigration than EU immigration, but in the years leading up to the brexit vote it was nearly 50:50:
https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
i remain perfectly comfortable in my original assertion that there was an injustice in 7% of the worlds population occupying over/nearly/slightly-less-than half the net migration, as contrasted to the other 90% of the worlds population.

lol, "no real problem"? the regime for RoR immigration [is] punative compared for that of EU citizens under freedom of movement, and it has become more punitive as a response to increased pressure from eu immigration.

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Do you have anything to back that up? You can assert a lot and so can I, but that doesn't prove your point in any way.
It may well be that the UK government is moving against immigration, but I cannot find anything about how this is tied to EU membership. Some people claim it is, without citing any specific EU rules that would mandate this.

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Originally Posted by Husar

Do you have anything to back that up? You can assert a lot and so can I, but that doesn't prove your point in any way.
It may well be that the UK government is moving against immigration, but I cannot find anything about how this is tied to EU membership. Some people claim it is, without citing any specific EU rules that would mandate this.

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Even the EU immigration can be acted on, with various measures taken by other member countries that aren't done by the UK, eg. registering when they enter and having to leave if they don't have employment within 6 months. The four freedoms mandates freedom of movement of labour, not freedom of movement of individuals. Instead, you have the Brexit loons arguing that EU immigrants are freeloading on the welfare state and the NHS, when it's Westminster, not Brussels, that allows this.

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Originally Posted by Husar

Do you have anything to back that up? You can assert a lot and so can I, but that doesn't prove your point in any way.
It may well be that the UK government is moving against immigration, but I cannot find anything about how this is tied to EU membership. Some people claim it is, without citing any specific EU rules that would mandate this.

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i did find an authoritative source a few months back that discussed how uk public policy had responded to rising immigration in noughties, might have been here, but can't find it now. i did look.

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

Even the EU immigration can be acted on, with various measures taken by other member countries that aren't done by the UK, eg. registering when they enter and having to leave if they don't have employment within 6 months. The four freedoms mandates freedom of movement of labour, not freedom of movement of individuals. Instead, you have the Brexit loons arguing that EU immigrants are freeloading on the welfare state and the NHS, when it's Westminster, not Brussels, that allows this.

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q) and how much of this depends on a conformist social democracy that requires national id cards, to be presented throughout private life in accessing services?
a) lots

we could achieve this, certainly, but it would need finnish collectivism not british individualism.

May says the choices are clear. It is either this deal, no deal, or no brexit.

We've finally got a manifesto for Brexit. Do the Brexiteers here support it?

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

We've finally got a manifesto for Brexit. Do the Brexiteers here support it?

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I guess, I support it as people should be able to rethink it, it will probably turn out to be much harsher though, will you accept it if it does

Just for reference, because I needed that myself: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...we-know-so-far

I for one welcome our new island colony.

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

We've finally got a manifesto for Brexit. Do the Brexiteers here support it?

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Too soon to say, but my uninformed inclination is: yes.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

Too soon to say, but my uninformed inclination is: yes.

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Have you read the bits about joint decisions yet? Or the stuff about equivalence. That's rory's most cited red line well and truly crossed.

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

Have you read the bits about joint decisions yet? Or the stuff about equivalence. That's rory's most cited red line well and truly crossed.

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Actually, yes, and this is one of the motivations I mentioned to you some months back.

In short:
The peril of the Swiss governance method is that it all hangs as one agreement, subject to a unilateral guillotine if the ECJ judges that it has breached any one element of the agreement. The whole lot chopped!

I argued that this would be unacceptable.
It was threatened during the course of the negotiation, but what has been achieved is better than that:

https://twitter.com/sylviademars/sta...00734152019970

Lots of external arbitration by separate committees overseeing their discreet element of the treaty.

People have been too focussed on the single axis of sovereignty vs integration, whereas I have always been inetersted in brexit from a geopolitics perspective, and I'd argue that "power fragility" is just as important.

There will always be disputes, disputes that [could] be resolved amicably, but become fulcrums in entirely separate public policy battles.
Constantly having to look over your shoulder when contemplating public policy divergence is not 'useful' sovereignty, even if you in theory have absolute legal freedom to do as you please.

May's deal appears to have managed to unite most of the country - almost everyone dislikes the deal - the remainers want to be leading Europe, not the gimp at the end of the choke collar; the brexiteers want to be properly out and equally not the gimp at the end end of a choke collar. A true master stroke.

I've always stated that there is close to no realistic chance of a deal since one would require something that the UK and entire EU agrees with - and even getting Ireland on side is proving to be extremely difficult.

Rather than spending 2 1/2 years in getting things sorted for what would be an undoubtedly be a difficult situation of leaving with no deal, they're pretending they can get one - even saying "no deal is better than a bad deal".

Enter a drawn-out pretending-to-leave and then at a point in the future we then end up rejoining more under the banner of having control over the money we continue to have to give.

~:smoking:

If you end up rejoining or paying for access, you may actually pay more if the special rebate is gone. :clown:

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Originally Posted by Husar

If you end up rejoining or paying for access, you may actually pay more if the special rebate is gone. :clown:

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60 procent of Brittish trade is outside the EU the remaining trade becommin more expensive is not going to hurt all that much, I hope the Netherlands follow suit, not realistic currentlly, but good luck with tarrifs on the biggest harbour and second biggest food producers in the world. It will happen eventually that we leave as well, everything you eat, everything you make, will cost you a lot more. The Netherlands has good carts but nobody plays them, for now

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Originally Posted by Husar

If you end up rejoining or paying for access, you may actually pay more if the special rebate is gone. :clown:

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Absolutely. What limited trust / power / gravitas the UK might have had is pretty much gone. Any "special deals" are also probably on the line. Turncoats are occasionally useful but rarely trusted.

But then the entire process was screwed from the start - a poorly thought out referendum that was supposed to kill the issue it kicked off with simplistic questions and no real clear process of what exactly this meant leading to a lot of chaos given the vote was so close. The Brexit side did lie - frankly those that believed the lies should loose the right to vote since they are not functioning as sentient beings.

Out of this whole sad situation the only possibility of any sort of upside for the UK is if Italy goes down the pan and drags the Euro down with it.

~:smoking:

I know people for voted leave simply because of the NHS Money Bus, because they wanted to support the NHS and though since it was on the side of a bus, it was legit. :no:

When you tried to tell them otherwise, they were all "nooo it is on the side of a bus!"

That bus is also still in the news...

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Originally Posted by Beskar

I know people for voted leave simply because of the NHS Money Bus, because they wanted to support the NHS and though since it was on the side of a bus, it was legit. :no:

When you tried to tell them otherwise, they were all "nooo it is on the side of a bus!"

That bus is also still in the news...

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do you hang out with a lot of left wing people?

asking, as that never entered my mind as a motivation, or, many of the brexit supporting people I know.*

*which isn't many, as I work in the public sector, in a university town.

Funny line:

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These resignations confirm a fundamental structural problem with the whole leave prospectus: it was a fantasy, and as such incompatible with the mundane fulfilment of ministerial responsibility. Raab has come to the same conclusion that David Davis and Boris Johnson reached earlier in the year: it is easier to be on the team that accuses the prime minister of failing to deliver majestic herds of unicorns than it is to be stuck with a portfolio that requires expertise in unicorn-breeding.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

do you hang out with a lot of left wing people?
asking, as that never entered my mind as a motivation, or, many of the brexit supporting people I know.*
*which isn't many, as I work in the public sector, in a university town.

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More I am from a poor working class area. Those same people are more likely to be UKIP voters too, as some feel Nigel Farage would represent their interests as he is more down with the people and that migration is the source of woes in British society by overstretching already overstretched hospital, education, etc services. Few people I know even vote conservative, because they see it as a pride thing, in a manner of "I am above my peers, I am a conservative" type of manner even though they shoot themselves in the foot due to the policies. Then there are people who vote conservative as they are rich, so they actually would benefit from it.

Whilst the actual left-wingers I know voted for remaining within the EU. The Remainers included pretty much anyone educated and under of the age of 40.

So I am guessing the demographic I am referring to are working class people over the age of 50.

People who loved the bus include my own mother who works within the NHS, using it part of her justification as she was heavily influenced by my euro-sceptic uncle who embarked on a Brexit campaign of saving young people from themselves because we don't know what is good for us (so ignore us), for the pride of Britain type stance. Myself and all my cousins all voted remain.

personally - and i say this because have very little anecdotal evidence to share - i don't think we can ignore the fact the the vast majority have never had an emotional attachment to EUrope as a political idea.
the EU - apart from a small minority - has never stirred any passion in us, or seemed the answer to any great question. as is the case on the continent.

so, yes, you may pick up on working class labour (non) voters who liked the bus, and you my also note other demographic slices like scotland, the young, the educated, etc, but in all those case they too voted en-mass to leave as well as remain.
a third of scots
forty percent of the young
a third of people with degrees

great chunks of even those demographic slices seen as fertile ground for remain.
... and then around all those specific groups the great avalanche of middle england - who also will have voted to remain in substantial part.

but not enough. not enough passion to make up for the grit it constantly sprinkled in the gears of society.

i do think getting worked up over the bus is not helpful to disappointed remainers; it is a slogan to shout not a reason leading to understanding.

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And by way of return:

My own immediate family was split. parents and sons voting to leave.
Daughters voting to remain (i think - never really asked).

My parents being the most committed, and who am I to argue: educated professionals (teacher/nurse) who HAD ACTUALLY MOVED THEIR FAMILY ABROAD TO LIVE.
Myself with a polish wife, my brother living in istanbul with his turkish girlfriend. Both of us soft leavers.
My sisters living solidly english middle-class urban lives. Both of them soft remainers, neither with any love, just seemed practical.
Oh, and as a consequence of our parents choices, all of us have in fact lived abroad, growing up in central africa.

I can find no reason why I should besmirch any of the choices made in my family. All made for good and honest reasons, whichever choice was arrived at.

When you call yourself a "soft" Brexiter, do you mean in 2016, or now? My impression is that you've always been adamant on the ideological importance of holding Europe at arm's length.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

When you call yourself a "soft" Brexiter, do you mean in 2016, or now? My impression is that you've always been adamant on the ideological importance of holding Europe at arm's length.

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I have always been a Eurosceptic, never a ukipper.
only became a leaver after Camerons renegotiation, when Belgium demanded the exemption from ever closer union must apply only to the UK.
both obnoxious in its own right, but also the end to any hope of Britain building blocking minorities in a time of QMV, reduced vote weight, and eurozone caucusing.

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

I have always been a Eurosceptic, never a ukipper.
only became a leaver after Camerons renegotiation, when Belgium demanded the exemption from ever closer union must apply only to the UK.
both obnoxious in its own right, but also the end to any hope of Britain building blocking minorities in a time of QMV, reduced vote weight, and eurozone caucusing.

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What do you think of the role played by the backers of Putin and Trump? Are they less obnoxious in your eyes? Do you think the likes of Cambridge Analytica and Steve Bannon are good for British democracy?

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

What do you think of the role played by the backers of Putin and Trump? Are they less obnoxious in your eyes?

Do you think the likes of Cambridge Analytica and Steve Bannon are good for British democracy?

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you'll have to explain that one. In the context of brexit...?

if they broke the law, prosecute them. if they exposed weaknesses in the law, amend the law. not of any material consequence either way.

Game over it seems

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

... Do you think the likes of Cambridge Analytica and Steve Bannon are good for British democracy?

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Setting aside your more particular political question about interference, this general question is worthy of its own thread and of concern, I believe, everywhere where elections are even vaguely fair.

The mediated world in which we live is manipulatable in ways the make the Goldwater Daisy ad seem like a child's machinations. I don't think there are many in government -- and fewer than I would like in general -- thinking about the problem potential here.

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Setting aside your more particular political question about interference, this general question is worthy of its own thread and of concern, I believe, everywhere where elections are even vaguely fair.

The mediated world in which we live is manipulatable in ways the make the Goldwater Daisy ad seem like a child's machinations. I don't think there are many in government -- and fewer than I would like in general -- thinking about the problem potential here.

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This is why I absolutely loathe the soundbite by Michael Gove, one of the leading Leave campaigners: "I think this country has had enough of experts". The success and viability of liberal democracy is absolutely dependent on being able to assess the evidence at hand, going back to the C19 when the franchise was expanded at the same time as compulsory education at younger ages was introduced across the population. The average voter has never been able to understand in detail the issues at hand. It's a matter of educating them to assess which experts are offering realistic choices, and only then can they make an informed choice. Brexit, and in particular Leave, explicitly diminished the political importance of experts. But politics does not automatically equal reality. Just because you vote for something does not necessarily make it so.

Experts aren't always experts, the academic world is full of frauds and essays for hire. I also got university degrees (multiple), I do not take them serious at all I just read books