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Sorry guys I'm writing from my phone now. Am on my way home and I hope to have the writeup up in about 30 mins
Hunt for The Fox
Night 4!
A murmur was going through the crowd when they had finally caught a scumbag in one of their attempts at justice. Even the mayor let out a sigh of relief before sending everyone to their homes: "Remember, we don't know for sure that there are no murderers left. Let's be careful and stay alive."
That's exactly what the man had planned, walking home from the center square to his small house, smiling after a good day. He was even whistling a tune when he suddenly noticed a figure walking towards him. The grim face made him nervous but the little alley was narrow and there was no way to evade the man. They both stopped and the guy didn't say a word while he pulled a crowbar out of his mantle. A grin on his face he prepared to strike but then a shot was heard.
Both men stared at each other until our innocent friend felt a sharp pain in his chest. He grabbed the area of his shirt and felt his warm blood on his own fingers. Staring in disbelief he fell to his knees and breathed his last breaths. The crowbar killer looked back for a moment and then quickly took off, straight away from the shooter. In the morning only the shot body was found and it didn't take long for his friends to step forward and identify...
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
It is now DAY 5!
Voting closes [s]tomorrow, Sunday, Midnight CET / 6 P.M. US Eastern. Votes after the deadline will not be counted, unless there is a tie. If there's a tie the first vote to break it after the deadline decides.
It's a shortened phase, sorry for the writeup being late. If you feel you need more time let me know and I'll see about extending. Sorry again :bow:
:whip: WOG Warning: - :whip:
If you don't vote during today's phase you are eligible for the WOG/replacement.
Alive:
Riedquat
Visorslash
Gaius Scribonius Curio
CountArach
The Outsider
Lynched:
Montmorency
Darth Feather
rickinator9
Nightbringer
Killed:
El Barto
Chaotix
Ishmael
dcmort93
Jarema
edse
autolycus
MakrellB-Wing
I'm going to post something more substantial soon but to state the obvious - we need to lynch a scum today or we lose. My only advice would be not to lynch Visorslash unless we are absolutely surw. The lack of a crowbar kill on the first night means that someone probably missed a phase and Visorslash was the only one who posted during that night phase. Thus of the two killers still around he is only likely to be the gun killer. He is the statistically least likely to be a killer.
3:1:1 (I think?)
What are the odds. In any case, 2/4 ain't bad odds so I'll take a look at our prospective suspects soon.
This is by no means an exhaustive analysis, but with a 1/3 of the day gone it is worth beginning the discussion proper.
Visorslash has been involved in the lynch of two mafiosi, Nightbringer and edse, and almost tried to lynch Chaotix day one. As CA states is statistically the least likely as he probably cannot be mafia, but could be the SK. Hasn't been especially helpful with his comments, but is not the most suspicious...
CountArach has been under sustained pressure from day 3 onwards, and has not done anything especially wrong imo. Has attempted to engage in reasoned discussion. Again, not at the top of my list.
The Outsider has been lively, and has been content to follow others, though I cannot necessarily fault him for that as a relatively new player.
What concerns me is the ease with which Riedquat has breezed through to this point. His posts have had enough in them to demonstrate involvement in the game, but lack substance. He managed to slip through one day phase without commenting (D3), and followed the rising bandwagon on two others (D2, D4). At no point has he been subjected to any pressure, and as such:
Vote: Riedquat
Okay I've read back through the thread and looked at some posts and my list of suspects is at two: Riedquat and Gaius. I'll go through Gaius first.
I would first like to point out his most recent post where he states the following:
This is a perfectly valid observation and I will get to that below when discussing Riedquat. What concerns me however is exactly how applicable this same argument is to Gaius himself. He has received one vote so far (from B-Wing on day 4) and never was really placed under close scrutiny. That's not a fault of his own, but it does show that he really hasn't been sticking his neck out. In fact if you look back over his posts he really hasn't done a lot to get noticed at all. Here are a couple of examples:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaius Scribonius Curio
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaius Scribonius Curio
In the first one it was clear that someone was going to be bandwagonned and rather than voting for the person coming second (rickinator) to avoid the overwhelming bandwagon he decides to go and vote for someone with no votes on him at all. This isn't useful and it doesn't do much for anyone. He notes his opposition but doesn't do the one thing in his power to stop it. As for the second case it is interesting that he abstained from voting and then, having gone back and re-read the thread (he claims) he votes for Nightbringer, who was already under scrutiny and had a vote for myself - from there it snowballed into the bandwagon that got Nightbringer killed. None of his suggestions in that case were new evidence.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaius Scribonius Curio
Okay, so much for Gaius. Now for Reidquat. Looking back over the earlier parts of the game it is remarkable to see how erratic Reidquat was. Here is his first vote for Darth Feather:
So he clearly understands what the argument again Darth Feather was - he broke the tie on Montmorency which saved the guilty Chaotix. Yet the next day:Quote:
Originally Posted by Riedquat
People were voting for the three of us for the exact same reason - we either directly or indirectly contributed to Chaotix living. He also throws out some brief suspicion on Visorslash there without actually exploring it. And then the next day:Quote:
Originally Posted by Riedquat
So here we have a vote for Nightbringer that is a bandwagon and also once again shows that he understands why the voting on the previous day was occurring. Also he then complains about the lack of conversation without actually providing any. This doesn't help the town but it does make him look deceptively like he is helping. And then when B-Wing does actually contribute something we get:Quote:
Originally Posted by Riedquat
So talking is suddenly a bad thing, yet that directly contradicts what he was saying on the previous day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Riedquat
So with the erratic voting, the feigned ignorance over the reasons for these votes which allow him to hide in bandwagons and finally an inconsistent view on whether conversation is good I will Vote: Riedquat. Note that I also think Gaius needs to address the issues I raised here.
You call for me to address these points, and so I shall. I see three points:Quote:
Originally Posted by CountArach
1) Not sticking my neck out enough.
2) Voting for Riedquat rather than Darth Feather/Rickinator.
3) Voting for Nightbringer after thinking about it rather than immediately.
The most obvious response to all of these points is that this fits my usual profile. I am not usually overly vocal. I will use the evidence available to make my points, but you won’t see huge game-changing posts, incorporating huge sections of analysis. I will make a case, but it won’t necessarily be overwhelming. In fact I am far more likely to speak out on behalf on someone rather than speak out against someone – see here and here – which, in my opinion, is sticking my neck out. So much for point 1.
In the specific case of avoiding the bandwagon, I am on the record as being opposed to them in most instances, particularly early in games, when they are usually ill-directed. In those instances, I won’t just vote for the person in second-place, I will vote for someone that I think is a likely suspect: the intent isn’t to elevate the next random person, the intent is to bring to the attention of the town someone who I find suspicious, or worthy of attention. In other words, I didn’t act as I did to promote another candidate: I acted to draw attention to the fact that it was a bandwagon and that early bandwagons are a bad idea. Again, par for the course for me.
Finally, I abstained initially as I was unsure how the evidence pieced together (and too busy to reread the thread immediately). Then, the phase was extended, allowing me to think some more. When I had had a chance to properly compose my thoughts, I deemed Nightbringer the best candidate. It was hardly a roiling bandwagon which I heartily jumped on. You made a decent case, Nightbringer’s response was problematic. My reasoning, which, as you correctly noted, does not add anything particularly novel, was a direct response to Nightbringer’s obfuscation.
As you accurately note, it is not my fault that no one has pressured me. I don’t have any further evidence to support my defence other than an appeal to my previous record: these points raised by you could be raised against me in any other given game. :bow:
Thanks for addressing those things. Can someone else vouch for Gaius based on his previous games?
Vote: Count Arach it is unlikely that Gaius is mafia. Possible serial killer.
Either one has to die today or else we almost certainly lose. Why do you think I am one or the other?Quote:
Originally Posted by Visorslash
Actually, the funny thing is, I'm going to reverse that.
Unvote; Vote: Gaius
Reasoning in a minute.
I think the previous day is a good indicator of who we can expect to be scum.
Count decided to go straight for NB and that means you're likely to be serial killer if you're a killer. With night going straight for you, it exemplifies that.
However, that isn't the only piece of information we have with us. Both players are thinkers. Both players went for the replacement. That to my mind discounts Outsider as SK or mafia then again is the outsider (nb late vote) a gambit or a 'bus? Up to others to decide,
I should throw out some terrible meta and suggest that Gaius thanked pizza's delayed update post in the rumble and he did so here, so he's scum. :laugh4:
In any case, I dislike Gaius's cautiousness and I think at this stage you need a vote on the field and cautiousness is tool of scum when it comes to first votes on final days.
Gaius isn't mafia. But he may be the SK. I don't think the outsider is scum.
This leaves to me, three choices. Gaius, scumquat, Count. All three good choices and good reasons for all of them in my opinion. If I get this wrong then so be it, but scumquat and gaius are likely candidates to me.
@TheLastDays
Can we have an extension please.
EDIT: oh bloody hell. Completely missed that gaius voted. In that case, I'm happy with a scumquat lynch.
So in summary:
CA: could be SK
Outsider: probably isn't SK or Mafia, but could be
...
Curio is guilty?
:dizzy2:
Edit: I see now...
OK - a response: I may be 'cautious' but I did take it upon myself to start the discussion today with a reasoned vote.
Why do you need an extension?
Unvote; Vote: Ried 'Scum' quat
Guys, let me know via PM if you think an extension is necessary. I'm sorry that my last writeup was late and it should be possible for everyone to weigh in on any given day phase so I'm thinking about pushing the deadlline for 24 hours
Tally:
Riedquat: 3 (Gaius Scribonius Curio, CountArach, Visorslash)
Not voting: Riedquat, The Outsider
Actually nevermind to PM me, since two players have not been able to respond at all yet and the day phase would be halfway over and The Ousider mentioned internet problemsI hereby extend the phase by 24 hours:scratch that
Personally I think it is fine as is. The problem is that there are only 5 people alive and because there is a dead-only QT any dead people aren't really allowed to take part any more.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLastDays
Me wondering what nerve touched B-wing for both killers going after him... just to discover now both killers voting for same person... poor townquat, I think everybody here can rule out The Outsider as scum right?
I was going to make a multi quoting post answering some concerns, but I'm really pissed off with the forum bringing quotes from nowhere... I better desist! I'm angered!! And sadly here we have an Election's day so I will be busy, not having a clue who of you are the two remaining scum don't help me, so... Vote: CountArach
:bow:
Ok, sorry for the jumping around but the general consensus (both in thred and via PM) seems to be that no extension is needed, so the round will end today at Midnight CEST / 6 P.M. US Eastern!
Hunt for The Fox
End of Day 5!
The day began with more accusations because obviously this nightmare wasn't over yet. At least one of those killers was still around and everyone was bent on finding him. A major suspect was soon found and most of the voters united against him, pressuring him more and more as the day continued. He remained quiet though, not saying much at all as if he knew that nothing could ever happen to him.
Smiling he already awaited them at the end of the day when they approached him to present their final verdict: "You are guilty and you will have to die."
"Oh, really?", he almost seemed amused as he looked from face to face, "Try, if you must". With that he pulled a gun out of his jacket and a fierce expression filled his eyes as he pointed it at the man closest to him. "You stay back and leave me alone. I will not die, not here, not by the hands of filth like yourselves."
A man shook his head: "We are too many, just accept it." BANG! The guy gave a warning shot into the air but the townspeople kept advancing. BANG! Another shot, this time into the ground, not far from the feet of one man who approached with a baseball bat. It stopped them for a moment as the killer was backed into a wall, looking like a caged, injured animal ready to strike. A few moments later one of the volunteer executioners stepped forward.
BOOM! Another shot, but this one was much louder and everyone looked around confused as the killer slumped back against a wall. The mayor stepped forward, a shotgun in his hand, looking down at the body that slowly slid down to the ground he kicked the other's gun away with his foot and watched with satisfaction as the life left the body in front of him. He turned around: "Alright, let's hope that this was it. It feels good to finally know for sure that we were right about..."
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Final Tally:
Riedquat: 3 (Gaius Scribonius Curio, CountArach, Visorslash)
CountArach: 1 (Riedquat)
Not voting: The Outsider
It is now NIGHT 5!
Orders due tomorrow, Monday, Midnight CET / 6 P.M. US Eastern.
Alive:
Visorslash
Gaius Scribonius Curio
CountArach
The Outsider
Lynched:
Montmorency
Darth Feather
rickinator9
Nightbringer
Riedquat
Killed:
El Barto
Chaotix
Ishmael
dcmort93
Jarema
edse
autolycus
MakrellB-Wing
Huzzah now to kill the crowbar one.
How would you do that? :inquisitive:Quote:
Originally Posted by CountArach
Hey guys, I am back for the time being but not quite sure how long the internet will survive. I am glad to see that you have managed to take down another scum. Do you guys have any idea about who might be guilty? I would like to vote before loosing my connection again.
fos: the OutsiderQuickly?Quote:
Originally Posted by Riedquat
Good luck trying! ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by El Barto
is that supposed to hint something that we domt know?Quote:
Originally Posted by Riedquat