Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
I enjoyed the Queen's speech today. A brief but needed reminder that we have to do what we need to do, to support those on the front lines, and remember that better days are ahead.
Wish I could hear something similar from an American leader.
There are plenty of examples of such speeches on both sides of the isle in america, the thing missing isnt wording, its a lack of trust in the speaker not to be lying through his teeth from people who align against him. Partisanship poisons everything, the royal family spend an inordinant amount of effort keeping themselves unstained from flavour of the month divisions exactly so they can do things like this and have it hold water with most everyone.
Its why I would never support replacing them with some president, why megan markel was so unacceptable in her posturing and why I am increasingly appauled when I see similar figures in the churches like the archbishop of Canterbury or the pope "marry the present" with political side taking.
04-06-2020, 05:54
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Retired Lt. Gen Russell Honore on federal procurement and emergency response practices
It just makes so much sense when the Ltg. explains how things get done. The military is an organization that is built around logistics. Whether armies in the field, or fleets at sea, no campaign can be prosecuted without understanding who needs what, and how does it get there in the best possible time. I can see legal battles coming over this when things settle down......
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quite possibly the only governor in the Union whose handling of the crisis could be called outright competent.
I'd also include Gov. Mike DeWine, GOP governor of Ohio. He declared a state of emergency on 5 March, and was one of the first governors to close schools and cancel sporting events.
Quote:
There are plenty of examples of such speeches on both sides of the isle in america
Name me one outside of Cuomo, Inslee, or DeWine that are government leaders:inquisitive: I would venture a guess that noone from Capital Hill has yet to step foot inside a major hospital to see whats actually going on in the trenches, because if they had, they'd shut the f@#$ up and get to work helping these people instead of price gouging....
04-06-2020, 07:46
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyblades
There are plenty of examples of such speeches on both sides of the isle in america, the thing missing isnt wording, its a lack of trust in the speaker not to be lying through his teeth from people who align against him. Partisanship poisons everything, the royal family spend an inordinant amount of effort keeping themselves unstained from flavour of the month divisions exactly so they can do things like this and have it hold water with most everyone.
Its why I would never support replacing them with some president, why megan markel was so unacceptable in her posturing and why I am increasingly appauled when I see similar figures in the churches like the archbishop of Canterbury or the pope "marry the present" with political side taking.
Link me examples of those American speeches you mention.
04-06-2020, 08:22
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
It just makes so much sense when the Ltg. explains how things get done. The military is an organization that is built around logistics. Whether armies in the field, or fleets at sea, no campaign can be prosecuted without understanding who needs what, and how does it get there in the best possible time. I can see legal battles coming over this when things settle down......
Cf. Lucius Aemilius Paullus Macedonicus on being praised for being able to organise Games at extremely short notice.
Name me one outside of Cuomo, Inslee, or DeWine that are government leaders:inquisitive:
Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
Link me examples of those American speeches you mention.
I went to pull up a list of speeches starting with trump and biden on the current one and previous presidents during disasters and I cannot say I was entirely correct, at least not in terms of brevity.
The sentiments of "we have to do what we need to do, to support those on the front lines, and remember that better days are ahead" is embedded in politics american and otherwise, name a president and with few exceptions I'll name at least 1 inaugeral and 3 state of the unions containing at least one of them. They are however often embedded in proposals, declarations of action, congratulation, self and otherwise and in sone cases swipes at the actions of others.
"From the beginning of time nations and people have faced unforeseen challenges including large scale and very dangerous health threats. This is the way it always was and always will be. It only matters how you respond, and we are responding with great speed and professionalism."
[...]
"If we are vigilant, and we can reduce the chance of infection, which we will, we will significantly impede the transmission of the virus. The virus will not have a chance against us. No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States. We have the best economy, the most advanced health care, and the most talented doctors, scientists, and researchers anywhere in the world. We are all in this together. We must put politics aside, stop the partisanship, and unify together as one nation and one family."
"As history has proven time and time again, Americans always rise to the challenge and overcome adversity. Our future remains brighter than anyone could imagine. Acting with compassion and love, we will heal the sick, care for those in need, help our fellow citizens, and emerge from this challenge stronger and more unified than ever before. God bless you, and God bless America. Thank you."
"As Americans, we may be physically apart, but we are truly all in this together. And you know it. Let me say something right up front. When we’ve stood as one, this nation has never ever been defeated when we’ve been together, and we’re not going to be defeated now. The pandemic of 1918, the Great Depression, two world wars, we overcame them all. And out of each crisis, we emerged stronger and we will again. This new enemy may be unseen, but we have the tools, the expertise, and most importantly the spirit to defeat it. "
[...]
"But also those who we don’t talk about much. The grocery store worker stocking the shelf, the mail and package carriers, the workers manufacturing gear we need to keep delivery trucks on the road, cooking meals to deliver, tending to our elderly loved ones. The journalists who keep us up to date and hold us accountable as leaders. The government officials working on this problem, and so many more. They’re putting all of it on the line for all of us. And we need to give them all the help they need. And now, they need help now. We need to be sure we never forget what they’ve done, because they’re doing a great deal."
"Deep in the heart of every American, I think there burns a flame. It’s an inheritance from every generation of Americans that has come before us. That’s why we have overcome every crisis we have ever faced before. It’s what makes this nation so special, why we stand apart. That flame is not going to be extinguished in this moment. If our leadership does its part, the American people will do more than their part. Because here’s the simple truth. Ordinary, hardworking Americans have never, ever, ever, ever, ever let their country down. So we need to get moving, move faster. This is the United States of America. There’s not a single thing we cannot do if we do it together. God bless you all those who are fighting this virus. May God protect you and may God protect our troops. Thank you."
Across the board, what we’ve seen is cooperation and a spirit of service. And for the first responders who are here, the police officers, the firefighters, the EMS folks, the sanitation workers who sometimes don’t get credit but have done heroic work, we are so grateful to you because you exemplify what America is all about.
[...]
And during difficult times like this, we’re reminded that we’re bound together and we have to look out for each other. And a lot of the things that seem important, the petty differences melt away, and we focus on what binds us together and that we as Americans are going to stand with each other in their hour of need.
[...]
And that spirit and sense of togetherness and looking out for one another, that's what's going to carry us through this tragedy. It's not going to be easy. There's still going to be, believe it or not, some complaints over the next several months. Not everybody is going to be satisfied.
[...]
I'm very proud of you, New York. You guys are tough. You bounce back, just as America always bounces back. The same is going to be true this time out.
"In the life of this nation, we have often been reminded that nature is an awesome force, and that all life is fragile. We are the heirs of men and women who lived through those first terrible winters at Jamestown and Plymouth “¦ who rebuilt Chicago after a great fire, and San Francisco after a great earthquake “¦ who reclaimed the prairie from the dust bowl of the 1930s. Every time, the people of this land have come back from fire, flood, and storm to build anew — and to build better than what we had before. Americans have never left our destiny to the whims of nature — and we will not start now.
"These trials have also reminded us that we are often stronger than we know — with the help of grace and one another. They remind us of a hope beyond all pain and death — a God who welcomes the lost to a house not made with hands. And they remind us that we are tied together in this life, in this nation — and that the despair of any touches us all."
[...]
And that spirit and sense of togetherness and looking out for one another, that's what's going to carry us through this tragedy. It's not going to be easy. There's still going to be, believe it or not, some complaints over the next several months. Not everybody is going to be satisfied. I have to tell you the insurance companies and some of the other private sector folks who are involved in this, we need you to show some heart and some spirit in helping people rebuild as well.
But when I hear the story of the Moores and I hear about Lieutenant Gallagher, that's what makes me confident that we're going to be able to rebuild. I'm very proud of you, New York. You guys are tough. You bounce back, just as America always bounces back. The same is going to be true this time out
A great people has been moved to defend a great nation. Terrorist attacks can shake the foundations of our biggest buildings, but they cannot touch the foundation of America. These acts shatter steel, but they cannot dent the steel of American resolve. America was targeted for attack because we're the brightest beacon for freedom and opportunity in the world. And no one will keep that light from shining. Today, our nation saw evil -- the very worst of human nature -- and we responded with the best of America. With the daring of our rescue workers, with the caring for strangers and neighbors who came to give blood and help in any way they could.
[...]
Tonight, I ask for your prayers for all those who grieve, for the children whose worlds have been shattered, for all whose sense of safety and security has been threatened. And I pray they will be comforted by a Power greater than any of us, spoken through the ages in Psalm 23:
Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil for you are with me.
This is a day when all Americans from every walk of life unite in our resolve for justice and peace. America has stood down enemies before, and we will do so this time. None of us will ever forget this day, yet we go forward to defend freedom and all that is good and just in our world.
We've grown used to wonders in this century. It's hard to dazzle us. But for 25 years the United States space program has been doing just that. We've grown used to the idea of space, and perhaps we forget that we've only just begun. We're still pioneers. They, the members of the Challenger crew, were pioneers.
And I want to say something to the schoolchildren of America who were watching the live coverage of the shuttle's takeoff. I know it is hard to understand, but sometimes painful things like this happen. It's all part of the process of exploration and discovery. It's all part of taking a chance and expanding man's horizons. The future doesn't belong to the fainthearted; it belongs to the brave. The Challenger crew was pulling us into the future, and we'll continue to follow them.
We, the citizens of America, are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and to restore its promise for all of our people.Together, we will determine the course of America and the world for years to come.We will face challenges. We will confront hardships. But we will get the job done.
[...]
Do not let anyone tell you it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America. We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again. We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the Earth from the miseries of disease, and to harness the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow. A new national pride will stir our souls, lift our sights, and heal our divisions.
It is time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget: that whether we are black or brown or white, we all bleed the same red blood of patriots, we all enjoy the same glorious freedoms, and we all salute the same great American Flag. And whether a child is born in the urban sprawl of Detroit or the windswept plains of Nebraska, they look up at the same night sky, they fill their heart with the same dreams, and they are infused with the breath of life by the same almighty Creator.
04-06-2020, 14:14
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Trump? Seriously???
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The virus will not have a chance against us. No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States.
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We are all in this together. We must put politics aside, stop the partisanship, and unify together as one nation and one family.
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Acting with compassion and love, we will heal the sick, care for those in need, help our fellow citizens
And you hold up this drivel from Trump as something equivalent to the graceful message put forth by the Queen?:inquisitive:
Biden's quote.....meh, stock response from someone running for the presidency.
As for the rest of those quotes....we are talking about the here and now. THIS disaster dwarfs all of those.
Jeez, why not quote Kennedy, FDR, and Abe Lincoln while you're at it?:juggle:
During his settlement of Greek affairs following Pydna, Paullus organised Games that had been postponed because of the conflict. Greek ambassadors praised his ability in organising such extensive Games at such short notice. He replied, if you're able to organise an army and lead it on campaign, organising something like the Olympics (or whatever it was) was easy in comparison.
04-06-2020, 14:48
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Greek ambassadors praised his ability in organising such extensive Games at such short notice. He replied, if you're able to organise an army and lead it on campaign, organising something like the Olympics (or whatever it was) was easy in comparison.
Okay:shrug:
I could think of many more current examples that address the far more complex task of getting 50 states to work together as one, like this:
More fundamentally, a spirit developed within each business enterprise to produce better than its competitors to serve the country. In his fireside chats, Roosevelt explained to the people over and over again why their productive genius had to be mobilized to win the war. Buoyed by the strong morale the president fostered, business and labor worked together to get the "E-for-excellence" citations that he spread around. It was not just producing more than your competitor, it was producing more than you did the previous quarter, and the quarter before that.
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In sum, one almost totally forgotten lesson of the war is that deep government involvement doesn't have to mean a command economy. Despite the mobilization, large segments of the economy were unaffected by the controls. No one was told where to move or work. Production for the government was still freely entered into by producers and government in a contractual arrangement; and business argued about those contracts all the time. Private property remained predominant throughout the country and still there were profits. In the World War II experience, the things we revere about capitalism the parts that spur energy, efficiency, and entrepreneurial skill were still in place. What the war did was tap that energy, not constrain it.
Obviously, Fearless Leader didn't do his history lessons in school.:shame:
04-06-2020, 16:03
Gilrandir
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyblades
Trump's inaugeral speech:
An auger is a drilling device, or drill bit, used for making holes in wood or in the ground. It usually includes a rotating helical screw blade called a 'flighting' to act as a screw conveyor to remove the drilled out material. The rotation of the blade causes the material to move out of the hole being drilled.
04-06-2020, 16:41
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Oh, but I think he got it right...:eyebrows:
I think you could describe Trump's presidency very well using terms like a 'screw conveyor' used to extract material; which in his case is $$$. And drilling holes in the ground perfectly describes how Trump is dealing with this pandemic, because there will be plenty of holes to drill after this is over, to bury the dead.
:rolleyes:
04-06-2020, 18:32
Greyblades
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Trump? Seriously???
And you hold up this drivel from Trump as something equivalent to the graceful message put forth by the Queen?:inquisitive:
Biden's quote.....meh, stock response from someone running for the presidency.
As for the rest of those quotes....we are talking about the here and now. THIS disaster dwarfs all of those.
Jeez, why not quote Kennedy, FDR, and Abe Lincoln while you're at it?:juggle:
I might as well, that was my point: the sentiment is ubiquitous in american speechmaking.
Your response also reinforces my previous point that whether the sentiment lands is reliant on the partisanship.
That the queen maintains impartiality means that her expressing the sentiment actually gets through and is appreciated by the majority of the population.
04-06-2020, 19:17
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Your response also reinforces my previous point that whether the sentiment lands is reliant on the partisanship.
I detest both Republicans and Democrats. I just detest Republicans more. I can praise GOP Gov. DeWine of Ohio without a shred of partisanship. He put the people and businesses of his state before politics, rather than toe the party line.
As to the Queen, when you watched her speak, you just KNEW she meant every word. That's what transcends politics, for me, not that she's basically just a royalty figurehead.
04-06-2020, 19:39
Seamus Fermanagh
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Effective Rhetoric, as has long been codified, requires an appeal on three levels: Pathos, Logos, and Ethos.
If I am charitable, Trump often (though not consistently) expresses the right kind of feelings (we'll get through this, we are tougher than this, etc.) So did Elizabeth II.
Charitably...okay, very charitably, Trump often (though only when prepped and not wandering ad lib) gets the logical stuff correct. But he misses and retracts etc. a lot to get there. Elizabeth kept it simple and did it in one take.
The last quality is ethos -- the appeal of ethical behavior and credibility. Elizabeth has Trump on the gravitas meter by at least a couple orders of magnitude.
Double reverse spin backwards overhead slam dunk by Windsor while Trump stands confused at the top of the key.
04-06-2020, 19:49
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Effective Rhetoric, as has long been codified, requires an appeal on three levels: Pathos, Logos, and Ethos.
If I am charitable, Trump often (though not consistently) expresses the right kind of feelings (we'll get through this, we are tougher than this, etc.) So did Elizabeth II.
Charitably...okay, very charitably, Trump often (though only when prepped and not wandering ad lib) gets the logical stuff correct. But he misses and retracts etc. a lot to get there. Eligravitaszabeth kept it simple and did it in one take.
The last quality is ethos -- the appeal of ethical behavior and credibility. Elizabeth has Trump on the gravitas meter by at least a couple orders of magnitude.
Double reverse spin backwards overhead slam dunk by Windsor while Trump stands confused at the top of the key.
She's also part of the generation that the allied nations revere as the greatest in their history. While Trump references WWII as the reasoning for some foreign policy crud or other, she was a servicewoman in it, famously pushing to serve as soon as she was old enough.
04-06-2020, 21:15
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Double reverse spin backwards overhead slam dunk by Windsor while Trump stands confused at the top of the key.
:bounce:
04-06-2020, 21:21
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Our PM is in ITU now. We're probably looking at a succession.
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
Link me examples of those American speeches you mention.
He's right, the Queen's speech comprises utterly banal, and universal, platitudes. But in politics ethos is typically not about the content of speech, but on how and when it is delivered and who delivers it. Even a stock speech can have an impact in the right context, and minimalism can be easier to get right than high-minded novelties.
But what gets me is that he singles out the pope for partisanship when the pope is conservative as they come for the general society and has basically maintained all the Church's typical practices and institutions. The sitting pope is hated by the Catholic far-right for not being the kind of reactionary to renounce the Lateran Treaty and Vatican II, redeclare integral sovereignty over the Papal States, and sufficiently terrorize the wimmenz and gays.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
I'd also include Gov. Mike DeWine, GOP governor of Ohio. He declared a state of emergency on 5 March, and was one of the first governors to close schools and cancel sporting events.
I'm not saying this as a way to denigrate Cuomo's performance in particular. There's a limit to how far and fast governors will go on a limb without federal support. Compared to Trump and some of the Republicans vying for worst response on the planet, benefiting from media connections by virtue of being NY governor and a brother to a national anchor, and a measure of gravitas and projected confidence - I don't underestimate the symbolic and communicative aspects of the job - he looks golden to a lot of viewers. To my knowledge he has been an effective administrator of NY emergency logistics. And I suppose he must have something to do with facilitating or maintaining the ongoing vast NY advantage in testing that no state remains even close to touching (though we've dropped below 20% of national cumulative tests), but I don't want to lend too much credit while I still don't know exactly how this testing gap came to be.
But, like basically everyone else in the world through February and early March, he was diffident and muddled on messaging and action out of anxiety about generating panic or economic disruption. Ultimately that has to count as an absolute mark against him and others, no matter how (or whether) they subsequently turned a corner. (Also I can't help but note his winning a hard-fought state austerity budget a few days ago, that cut Medicaid and public hospitals. Hard to swallow as someone to the left of Cuomo.)
As long as we're counting governors who have done a relatively-decent job, include California's Gavin Newsom. As I recall Florida's de Santis announced a state of emergency on March 1, right after Inslee, a moment which he subsequently squandered utterly by leaning into Trumpian cult politics and doing all that he could to let the virus run wild, including keeping the beaches open and suppressing local control of stricter lockdowns. Hawaii and California were the next to declare states of emergency, on Mar. 4. I don't know much about Hawaii's response other than their noteworthy travel restrictions on the mainland, but California did initiate significant social distancing policies right away - faster than New York.
04-07-2020, 17:37
Greyblades
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
But what gets me is that he singles out the pope for partisanship when the pope is conservative as they come for the general society and has basically maintained all the Church's typical practices and institutions. The sitting pope is hated by the Catholic far-right for not being the kind of reactionary to renounce the Lateran Treaty and Vatican II, redeclare integral sovereignty over the Papal States, and sufficiently terrorize the wimmenz and gays.
Being a catholic myself, if I meant his sad lacking in the terrorising the wammen and teh gays department I'd be calling him a heretic not a partisan... I mean he technically is a heretic but, hell, so am I.
The man took sides on issues of borders migrants, and other issues outside his remit. The gravitas of his position suffered because of it, rendering him less capable than he should be of rallying people in this trying time.
04-07-2020, 19:41
Seamus Fermanagh
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Monty:
You do realize that you are reducing the internal politics/theological debates/stance of the various factions within Mother Church rather harshly, yes? That's every bit as limited as the "Left/Right" treatment of US or UK politics.
That said, there is opposition to the generally reformist tendencies of the current occupant of the "shoes of Peter." But Catholic conservatism comes in many stripes. The anti-Lateran, anti-Vatican II, hyper-traditionalists are part of what is officially a schismatic sect called 'St. Pius X.' While efforts to reconcile the schism have been made, many adherents refuse the conditions of return. Even so, the Church has stopped short of labeling them heretical per se. Other factions within the Church want the Church to remain as separate as possible from lay authority while others want the Church to change its position on barrier contraception while adhering to traditional marriage. It is actually a melange of competing ideas.
The current Holy Father reflects this in that he is, by Church standards, quite the liberal reformer in orientation. To Western society at large, however, he would be deemed staunchly traditional on any number of issues.
Being a catholic myself, if I meant his sad lacking in the terrorising the wammen and teh gays department I'd be calling him a heretic not a partisan... I mean he technically is a heretic but, hell, so am I.
The man took sides on issues of borders migrants, and other issues outside his remit. The gravitas of his position suffered because of it, rendering him less capable than he should be of rallying people in this trying time.
As far as I am able to glean, Francis has emphasized the Christian moral imperative for welcoming migrants and refugees, which is incontrovertibly essential to ecumenical Christianity. He has not - again, to my knowledge - offered political or policy judgements, even though those would follow naturally from an expression of abstract priorities.
If the pope offering stock ChristianTM rhetoric and nice words about migrants is intolerable to you, I don't see why that's the pope's problem. Get in line with the people who despise the pope for 'keeping the faith' on abortion and contraception and not doing enough to eradicate abuse within the Church.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
The current Holy Father reflects this in that he is, by Church standards, quite the liberal reformer in orientation. To Western society at large, however, he would be deemed staunchly traditional on any number of issues.
Exactly - but most Catholics are more liberal than Francis is, so I don't see even internal grounds for reactionaries to have their day. They've already.
04-08-2020, 20:45
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Does anyone have a legitimate source on recovered South Korean COVID patients testing positive in large numbers?
Welcome more discussion of the undercount issue. By now I have a strong suspicion that even apparent "peaks" in official caseload are actually artifacts of stagnant testing capacity. If you test only x persons a day, then the growth of positive cases will be linear - on paper. From a NYC study discussing the possibility of flat NYC curve, using late-March data:
To my eye that is a perfect correlation between testing levels and reported cases + hospitalizations. This has to be the figurative tip of the incidence iceberg.
As long as testing capacity grows over time - as we have seen in the US so far - it will appear as though the rate of growth in cases is accelerating. If testing capacity is stable, growth in cases will appear stable. But this will not necessarily reflect the underlying reality. Is there a surefire way to distinguish an epidemic losing steam than a combination of (1) static testing alongside declining daily positives; (2) decreasing healthcare utilization of potential and confirmed cases.
Relevant from the chair of the NYC Council health committee:
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NYC’s “city morgue” is the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME), which luckily is the best in the world.
But they are now dealing w/ the equivalent of an ongoing 9/11. And so are hospital morgues, funeral homes & cemeteries. Every part of this system is now backed up. 2/
A typical hospital morgue might hold 15 bodies. Those are now all full. So OCME has sent out 80 refrigerated trailers to hospitals around the city. Each trailer can hold 100 bodies. These are now mostly full too. Some hospitals have had to add a 2nd or even a 3rd trailer. 3/
Grieving families report calling as many as half a dozen funeral homes and finding none that can handle their deceased loved ones. Cemeteries are not able to handle the number of burial requests and are turning most down. 4/
It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*. 5/
Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. 6/
Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic.
And still the number of bodies continues to increase. The freezers at OCME facilities in Manhattan and Brooklyn will soon be full. And then what? 8/
Insisting that all responsibility for testing be offloaded from the federal government to states and hospitals, while demanding congratulations for states and hospitals increasing their testiing capacity, is a chef's kiss. https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1247292542162546694
I'm surprised Fox News had this guy on, it's on a level with the guest they had 4 years ago who offered that Trump's blandishments to black voters were actually meant for the white suburban middle-class. https://twitter.com/LisPower1/status...33437519536129
Also surprising: the Trump admin has designated unauthorized workers to be essential workers! Of course it's actually SOP once you realize this essential status doesn't afford the unauthorized any relief or benefits today. This story is older than living memory.
The coronavirus death count in New York City, already unfathomable, is expected to surge in the coming days as officials begin including people who have been dropping dead at home without an official diagnosis.
Emergency Medical Service data first reported by Gothamist suggests the undercount of individuals who have likely died from the virus is massive. On Tuesday alone, 256 people were pronounced dead at home across the five boroughs. Until this month, about 25 people in New York City were found dead in their homes on a typical day, suggesting that most of Tuesday’s calls were related to the outbreak that has already killed over 5,400 people across the state and infected 140,386 more.
According to New York City Fire Department data obtained by The Daily Beast, first responders have reported 2,192 “dead-on-arrival” calls over the last two weeks. On average, the department handled about 453 of those calls over the same period last year.
That data also showed that the number of cardiac or respiratory arrest calls has exploded, from 20 to 30 a day at the end of March and the beginning of April in 2019, to 322 on one day in April in 2020—with more than 100 calls every day since March 28. While 30 to 50 percent of those calls ended in a death in 2019, more than 50 percent of those calls have ended in a death every day since March 22 this year, with the percentage steadily rising to 75 percent as of April 5.
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One emergency room doctor told The Daily Beast that his hospital is “aggressively sending people home.”
“Being in the hospital is not going to change their course of illness,” the physician said, indicating the hard choices medical professionals face during this pandemic.
De Blasio said that he was hopeful the virus was starting to slow after seeing indications that the city’s overwhelmed hospital system was seeing fewer admissions—until he learned that hundreds of people are dying in their homes without seeking medical care.
More than 9,400 people with the coronavirus have been reported to have died in this country as of this weekend, but hospital officials, doctors, public health experts and medical examiners say that official counts have failed to capture the true number of Americans dying in this pandemic. The undercount is a result of inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision making from one state or county to the next.
[...]
Late last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidance for how to certify coronavirus deaths, underscoring the need for uniformity and reinforcing the sense by health care workers and others that deaths have not been consistently tracked. In its guidance, the C.D.C. instructed officials to report deaths where the patient has tested positive or, in an absence of testing, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” In infectious outbreaks, public health experts say that under typical circumstances it takes months or years to compile data that is as accurate as possible on deaths.
Quote:
The federal government does not expect to produce a final tally of coronavirus deaths until 2021, when it publishes an annual compilation of the country’s leading causes of death.[...] “It is not a ‘real time’ count of Covid deaths, like what the states are currently reporting,” Jeff Lancashire, a spokesman for the National Center for Health Statistics, said.
But those who work with death certificates say they worry that relying only on those documents may leave out a significant number of cases in which coronavirus was confirmed by testing, but not written down in the section where doctors and coroners are asked to note relevant underlying diseases. Generally, certificates require an immediate cause, and encourage — but do not require — officials to take note of an underlying disease.
Then there are the many suspected cases.
Susan Perry, the funeral director from Virginia, said that she was informed by health workers and families that three recently deceased people had tested positive for the virus so that she and her staff could take necessary precautions with the bodies. Only one death certificate mentioned the virus.
“This probably happens all the time with different diseases, but this is the first time I’m paying attention to it,” Ms. Perry said. “If we don’t know the numbers, how are we going to be able to prepare ourselves and protect ourselves?”
Quote:
Experts who study mortality statistics caution that it may take months for scientists to calculate a fatality rate for coronavirus in the United States that is as accurate as possible.
Some researchers say there may never be a truly accurate, complete count of deaths. It has happened before. Experts believe that widespread news coverage in 1976 of a potential swine flu epidemic — one that never materialized — led to a rash of deaths recorded as influenza that, in years prior, would have been categorized as pneumonia.
“We’re still debating the death toll of the Spanish flu” of 1918-19, said Stéphane Helleringer, associate professor at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. “It might take a long time. It’s not just that the data is messy, but because the effects of a pandemic disease are very complex.”
I've read similar things about the situation in other states, such as Texas.
04-09-2020, 03:12
drone
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
With the egregious state of testing in the US, the death count is really the only number you can sort of trust, and with the hospitals full that will no longer be as accurate (statisticians can extrapolate). Positive tests and hospitalizations are meaningless. We only test the obviously sick or the privileged, and will never know the infected rate unless we do an antibody census to count the asymptomatic cases.
With the various state lockdowns, we should be screening at the choke points (grocery stores, essential workplaces, etc) with temperature checks followed by swab tests. Most of the country has no clue how good or bad it is.
04-09-2020, 03:15
Shaka_Khan
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
The WHO originally claimed that there was no person-to-person infection with this virus (at 5:49)...
With the egregious state of testing in the US, the death count is really the only number you can sort of trust, and with the hospitals full that will no longer be as accurate (statisticians can extrapolate). Positive tests and hospitalizations are meaningless. We only test the obviously sick or the privileged, and will never know the infected rate unless we do an antibody census to count the asymptomatic cases.
With the various state lockdowns, we should be screening at the choke points (grocery stores, essential workplaces, etc) with temperature checks followed by swab tests. Most of the country has no clue how good or bad it is.
I would have thought for tests to be worth it they'd need to be 99%+ accurate (sensitive and specific) and so far it seems a lot of them are way short of this metric.
~:smoking:
04-09-2020, 18:58
Beskar
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
I would have thought for tests to be worth it they'd need to be 99%+ accurate (sensitive and specific) and so far it seems a lot of them are way short of this metric.
People are being tested at least 3 times before it is 'confirmed', with test 1 and 2 being negative, despite a clear presentation.
04-10-2020, 03:34
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I wanted to do some original research toward a crude little validation of my hypothesis about testing masking incidence. What's a country with a putatively flat curve with a well-documented testing regime? South Korea is arguably the best representative available.
Without taking the step of registering a prediction, here is what I found.
DATE
TESTS ADDED
POSITIVES ADDED
TESTS TO-DATE
POSITIVES TO-DATE
4/9
8708
39
494711
10423
4/8
8699
53
4/7
10500
47
4/6
5571
47
Week ending 4/5
67092
654
461233
10237
4/5
6201
81
4/4
11759
94
4/3
11530
86
4/2
10196
89
4/1
10983
101
3/31
15370
125
3/30
1053
78
Week ending 3/29
62361
686
394141
9583
Week ending 3/22
63568
735
331780
8897
Week ending 3/15
79694
1028
268212
8162
Week ending 3/8
89597
3398
188518
7134
Week ending 3/1
74352
2970
98921
3736
According to my hypothesis, a testing ceiling could potentially falsely give rise to the impression of a ceiling in case growth. For example, if you test 10000 a day and identify 1000 positives among them consistently over time, it will appear as though the disease reproduction number (R0) has been suppressed to 1 or lower, which is to say that exponential growth in caseload has been decisively contained. But this testing ceiling could be misleading as these indicators alone would not allow an observer to discern between a contained outbreak and one that is growing at an increasing rate with hundreds of thousands or millions of unconfirmed true cases. In such a situation, it might be expected that growth in the testing rate (e.g. 10K > 11K > 12K daily) would produce a corresponding case growth as more true cases are uncovered.
[Caveat: I am not doing any proper statistical analysis here, only eyeballing]
In the South Korean figures above, from the beginning of March to now, we see the following overall trends:
1. A gradual decline in testing.
2. A gradual decline in new positives.
Could South Korea be falling afoul of the trap? Breaking down the trends should offer insight.
The number of tests being administered daily has dropped a lot since early March, as has the number of new positives added, which would be predicted under my hypothesis. However, the decrease in new positives has been proportionally greater than the decrease in tests performed. We can see that in the week ending March 1, there were 74352 tests conducted for 2970 positives, while there was even more testing in the week ending March 15 at 79694, yet there were only 1028 new positives - not even half as many. Comparing the week ending March 22 to the week ending March 29, testing each week was about the same at ~63K give or take; in the second week there were 98% as many tests as the first, but only 90% as many new positives. In the week ending April 5, more testing was done than in either of the two aforementioned weeks, yet fewer new positives.
In the daily figures I included for the past 11 days, testing frequency has varied dramatically. On March 30 there were 1053 tests and 78 positives, compared to 15370 tests and 125 positives on March 31. On April 6 and 7 the same amount of new positives - 47 - was added each day. This was despite there being 5571 tests reported on April 6 against 10500, nearly double, on April 7. Over the past two days, April 8-9, there has been the same amount of testing - ~8700 - with 53 and 39 new positives, respectively. That there could be so much variation in testing frequency that still produces positives clustered so closely together in magnitude, yet also following the overall downward trend, is evidence that the outbreak is resolving within the observed time period and that testing captures a representative sampling.
In the US the ratio of tests to positives has been (using Covidtracking.com and the John Hopkins map) 2,360,512 : 462,135 or 5.1. In South Korea it has been 47.5 per the latest cumulative figures (see top of table). At the beginning of March (see again table) it was 26.5. In the last day it has been 223.3. South Korea could be very bad at selecting testing subjects, or it could be identifying most of the true positives. With the latter scenario the skyrocketing ratio of tests to positives could reflect a genuine decrease in the rate of new infections.
Unless South Korea is astoundingly bad at picking people to test, and only getting worse with time, then the combination of low absolute case growth and steadily negative rate of growth we see above really does seem consistent with a contained outbreak rather than a masked one. The testing frequency, though inconsistent and by some intuition low, would therefore prove to be well above the ceiling at which true cases begin to slip under the cracks. This conclusion would also be consistent with most news reports on South Korea's relative success, and their trends can thus serve as a point of reference (or contrast) to American ones.
Addendum: Another avenue of validating the hypothesis for a country, one way or another, would be a view from the ground, i.e. hospital utilization, excess death rates, etc. I have not looked at South Korea's indicators for this exercise, but given the above I would expect them to comport with a contained outbreak.
04-10-2020, 04:32
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Denver Post on the federal government confiscating purchased supplies.
Quote:
Trump had only days before prevented Colorado Gov. Jared Polis from securing 500 ventilators from a private company, instead, taking the ventilators for the federal government. Polis sent a formal letter pleading for medical equipment, but the president took the time to make clear he was responding to a request from Gardner. We are left to believe that if Colorado didn’t have a Republican senator in office, our state would not be getting these 100 ventilators. How many ventilators would we be getting if we had a Republican governor and a second Republican senator? Would that indicate we had more Republican lives in our state worth saving for Trump and resources would start flowing? Should Utah be concerned that Sen. Mitt Romney voted to remove the president from office?
This behavior comes, of course, weeks after Trump informed states they would have to compete against one another in the procurement of medical supplies at a time of global shortages due to the coronavirus pandemic.
If the federal government turns out to be running a double-dip scam, outbidding states or outright stealing medical equipment to resell to connected private contractors who then turn around and front to the states and hospitals, that alone would be a transgression worthy of life imprisonment.
Toward the intersection of the pandemic and the electoral:
Absentee Ballots are a great way to vote for the many senior citizens, military, and others who can’t get to the polls on Election Day. These ballots are very different from 100% Mail-In Voting, which is “RIPE for FRAUD,” and shouldn’t be allowed!
“Mail-in voting is horrible. It’s corrupt,” declared President Trump earlier this week. When a reporter asked how he could reconcile that position with the fact that he had personally voted by mail in the last election, Trump replied, “Because I’m allowed to.” This perfectly circular logic — if more voters were permitted to vote by mail, they would also be “allowed to” — seemed not to satisfy him. Trump has refined his view, explaining that casting a ballot by mail is fine for members of the military and senior citizens, but is “ripe for fraud” when used by others:
Trump is not even attempting to formulate a facially neutral principle. He is simply asserting that members of the military and senior citizens — constituencies that lean Republican — can be trusted not to commit voter fraud, but that constituencies that might vote Democratic cannot. He is willing to support accommodations to allow Republican-leaning voters to vote without risking their health, but refuses to support any such accommodations for Democrats. (Trump campaign officials already confirmed this to Politico — they will allow mail voting for senior citizens, but not others.) The travesty that was Tuesday’s election in Wisconsin is his plan to win in November.
It’s not clear if Democrats have fully grasped the gravity of what Trump and his party are attempting to do. The coronavirus poses a threat to elections in general, but a special threat to urban voters, who tend to face more crowded polling stations. Republicans are very willing to take active measures — like strict voter ID, or the poll tax Florida Republicans have tried to impose — but the virus makes active measures unnecessary. Republicans have calculated that the public-health threat of the virus will suppress the urban vote for them. All they have to do is block any changes to the election system and allow nature to run its course.
That Trump has never offered any nominal commitment to neutral application of government is a kind of defense if being sardonic. We're -this- close to banana republic status.
(Grimly, Trump mentioned "when they grab thousands of mail-in ballots, and they dump it" in disparaging broadened mail-in voting. I say grim because North Carolina Republicans were discovered to have perpetrated this exact form of electoral fraud in the 2018 midterms, so egregiously that the courts vacated the election result. It's like a kiddy diddler pulling a minor into their van with the admonition that 'there are a lot of creeps out there.' :daisy: criminal scum.)
These last years have convinced me that we need to amend the Constitution to reintroduce attainder.
04-10-2020, 06:54
Shaka_Khan
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
South Korea is arguably the best representative available.
I'd also check out Taiwan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
In the South Korean figures above, from the beginning of March to now, we see the following overall trends:
1. A gradual decline in testing.
2. A gradual decline in new positives.
Could South Korea be falling afoul of the trap? Breaking down the trends should offer insight.
Interesting...
04-10-2020, 16:15
Seamus Fermanagh
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
...These last years have convinced me that we need to amend the Constitution to reintroduce attainder.
I wonder sometimes, just how much of your sociopolitical outlook revolves around the belief that any wealth is an inherent evil. Many (Most?) of the rest of your positions seem to flow from that.
"From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs" is poetic, but seldom materializes in practice and then not for long. Nor can it be effectively enforced by authority.
As I am condemned to never see government minimized and localized because of the practicalities of the economy of scale, I suspect that you are condemned to never getting the governance you think we all need -- even if you get every law or change enacted that you seek. Neither of us can remake humanity in a different image.
04-10-2020, 23:25
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
I wonder sometimes, just how much of your sociopolitical outlook revolves around the belief that any wealth is an inherent evil. Many (Most?) of the rest of your positions seem to flow from that.
"From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs" is poetic, but seldom materializes in practice and then not for long. Nor can it be effectively enforced by authority.
As I am condemned to never see government minimized and localized because of the practicalities of the economy of scale, I suspect that you are condemned to never getting the governance you think we all need -- even if you get every law or change enacted that you seek. Neither of us can remake humanity in a different image.
Wealth? WEALTH??!??!
Your comment conveys the impression that the possession of massive wealth can excuse or diminish world-historical crimes to the violation of millions. What's the relevance of someone's wealth in these circumstances, other than a reminder of the depth of their depravity - there isn't even any meaningful material standard to gain for themselves - and the stark truth that wealth translates directly to the power to avoid accountability. But most of these goons aren't even particularly wealthy, which itself is irrespective of the fact that they're not sitting around at home meticulously folding banknotes in peace.
I remind you that the Nuremberg Trials did not have any independent framework embedded in or legitimized by some system of "rule of law." Sometimes to deliver justice a bespoke mechanism suited to extraordinary circumstances is necessary. And it's abstract deontology anyway, we all know few of the principals will ever see the inside of a court, let alone a stamp of attainder.
I'm still stunned that my writing about points of political malfeasance could prompt your post, as though I were the one reducing everything to wealth inequality or class dynamics. As though someone would fundamentally need to have a different notion of just distribution of resources than you to condemn plunder and terror, rather than even the most casual shared adherence to ideals of sound government.
What an example of barking up the wrong tree. I hope by now you understand my sheer befuddlement at your post.
As for the subject of wealth per se, readthese, which is ethically a little more radical than I would subscribe to but well-put in principle.
California this week declared its independence from the federal government’s feeble efforts to fight Covid-19 — and perhaps from a bit more. The consequences for the fight against the pandemic are almost certainly positive. The implications for the brewing civil war between Trumpism and America’s budding 21st-century majority, embodied by California’s multiracial liberal electorate, are less clear.
Speaking on MSNBC, Governor Gavin Newsom said that he would use the bulk purchasing power of California “as a nation-state” to acquire the hospital supplies that the federal government has failed to provide. If all goes according to plan, Newsom said, California might even “export some of those supplies to states in need.”
“Nation-state.” “Export.”
Newsom is accomplishing a few things here, with what can only be a deliberate lack of subtlety. First and foremost, he is trying to relieve the shortage of personal protective equipment — a crisis the White House has proved incapable of remedying. Details are a little fuzzy, but Newsom, according to news reports, has organized multiple suppliers to deliver roughly 200 million masks monthly.
Second, Newsom is kicking sand in the face of President Donald Trump after Newsom’s previous flattery — the coin of the White House realm — failed to produce results. If Trump can’t manage to deliver supplies, there’s no point in Newsom continuing the charade.
Third, and this may be the most enduring effect, Newsom is sending a powerful message to both political parties. So far, the Republican Party’s war on democratic values, institutions and laws has been a largely one-sided affair, with the GOP assaulting and the Democratic Party defending. The lethal ruling this week by the U.S. Supreme Court’s Republican bloc, which required Wisconsin residents to vote in person during a pandemic that shut down polling stations, is a preview of the fall campaign. The GOP intends to restrict vote-by-mail and other legitimate enfranchisement to suppress turnout amid fear, uncertainty and disease.
At some point this civil war by other means, with the goal of enshrining GOP minority rule, will provoke a Democratic counteroffensive. Newsom, leader of the nation’s largest state, is perhaps accelerating that response, shaking Democrats out of denial and putting Republicans on notice. California, an economic behemoth whose taxpayers account for 15% of individual contributions to the U.S. Treasury, is now toning up at muscle beach.
My compliments to California and the West Coast for their recent kind gesture.
Quote:
California is loaning 500 ventilators to states like New York where the coronavirus is exacting a deeper toll, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday.
The act of generosity completes a bi-coastal aid package after both Washington and Oregon lent medical supplies to New York, which is battling the nation's worst outbreak. Ventilators from California will flow into the Strategic National Stockpile. Oregon announced Saturday it was sending 140 ventilators to New York, while Washington said Sunday it was returning more than 400 of the machines.
Imagine if all the states got together and coordinated their response, forming some type of super-organization to share supplies, personnel, and information. I wonder what they could accomplish then...
04-11-2020, 01:51
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Wealth? WEALTH??!??!
Your comment conveys the impression that the possession of massive wealth can excuse or diminish world-historical crimes to the violation of millions. What's the relevance of someone's wealth in these circumstances, other than a reminder of the depth of their depravity - there isn't even any meaningful material standard to gain for themselves - and the stark truth that wealth translates directly to the power to avoid accountability. But most of these goons aren't even particularly wealthy, which itself is irrespective of the fact that they're not sitting around at home meticulously folding banknotes in peace.
I remind you that the Nuremberg Trials did not have any independent framework embedded in or legitimized by some system of "rule of law." Sometimes to deliver justice a bespoke mechanism suited to extraordinary circumstances is necessary. And it's abstract deontology anyway, we all know few of the principals will ever see the inside of a court, let alone a stamp of attainder.
I'm still stunned that my writing about points of political malfeasance could prompt your post, as though I were the one reducing everything to wealth inequality or class dynamics. As though someone would fundamentally need to have a different notion of just distribution of resources than you to condemn plunder and terror, rather than even the most casual shared adherence to ideals of sound government.
What an example of barking up the wrong tree. I hope by now you understand my sheer befuddlement at your post.
As for the subject of wealth per se, readthese, which is ethically a little more radical than I would subscribe to but well-put in principle.
My compliments to California and the West Coast for their recent kind gesture.
Imagine if all the states got together and coordinated their response, forming some type of super-organization to share supplies, personnel, and information. I wonder what they could accomplish then...
On a similar and parallel note though, does it help to fill your posts with longer than necessary (and rarely seen) words, and emotional adjectives? During my educational years, I was taught to cut down my writings to be as concise as possible; convey the maximum of information with the minimum of verbiage.
04-11-2020, 02:47
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
On a similar and parallel note though, does it help to fill your posts with longer than necessary (and rarely seen) words, and emotional adjectives? During my educational years, I was taught to cut down my writings to be as concise as possible; convey the maximum of information with the minimum of verbiage.
Well, OK? You have your own rhetorical style, which often involves repetition and reframing for emphasis (as opposed to concision). You use formats like 'Brexit will cause this bad thing, which will lead to this other bad thing. Do Brexit supporters accept that bad thing X will lead to bad thing Y?' I have my own style, which tends to strive for including or alluding to as many relevant points as I can remember. I'm not saying one is necessarily better than the other, or that all instances are as well-put as they could be in their own right, but...
Give me an example by truncating the 270 words in my response to Seamus.
04-11-2020, 06:07
Strike For The South
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
We will not all sleep, but we all will be changed.
Economist ANNIHILATES China, ERASING it from HISTORY - Calls Coronavirus the next HOLOCAUST x10000!
04-12-2020, 05:17
Seamus Fermanagh
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Wealth? WEALTH??!??!
Your comment conveys the impression that the possession of massive wealth can excuse or diminish world-historical crimes to the violation of millions.
:inquisitive:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
...and the stark truth that wealth translates directly to the power to avoid accountability.
Numerous forms of power do this and have throughout history. Less so, though sadly only marginally, in many Western societies.
How does one negate power? Not counter it or shift it or redistribute it -- all of these have been tried, are being used and none of them answer the problem of power completely. So how does one negate it? And if successful, how does anything get done in its absence?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
I remind you that the Nuremberg Trials did not have any independent framework embedded in or legitimized by some system of "rule of law." Sometimes to deliver justice a bespoke mechanism suited to extraordinary circumstances is necessary. And it's abstract deontology anyway, we all know few of the principals will ever see the inside of a court, let alone a stamp of attainder.
Some justice was meted out at Nuremburg. Some punishment and vindictiveness as well. It was, as you note, an imperfect tool. Attainder, either in the meaning of legislative determination of guilt absent trial or the confiscation of all real property and chattels has been, historically, much abused. Was your comment (which I thought a hyperbole when I read it) prompted by justice or vindictiveness? Only you know.
As to malfeasance, everything connected to this pandemic will be under a microscope for years. If such has occurred, it will out and criminal charges can be leveled as appropriate.
As to those pumps, the stated purpose was to build up a federal "reserve" that could be deployed to hot spots in danger of being overwhelmed. Mind you, setting up such a reserve in the manner it was done and with those hot spots already appearing and clamoring for resources was poorly handled -- but I am generally readier to believe in ineptitude and ham-handed reactive efforts by government in general (and this sad sack administration in particular) than I am to assume malfeasance. Hanlon's Razor is one of my favorite tools with which to analyze organizations and organizational conflict.
The man is an asshat, a poor leader, and has begat an administration which does things sloppily at best and all too often incompetently into the bargain. I will have little trouble voting for Biden come November. Though I pity the man and what he will be wading through at first.
Paul Romer has a pandemic phase-out proposal that relies on daily testing capacity of over 20 million. In the United States. (We've only just reached 150K/day nationally.)
And here I thought 1 million daily would be a solid achievement for this country.
Reminds me of the archmair generals who estimated that if Nazi Germany had built 20000 Tiger tanks or whatever, it could have held out.
Singapore seems to have lost containment of its outbreak. Nationals returning from abroad were not adequately quarantined, and now the disease is widespread among barracks-concentrated guest workers.
Bodies in the streets of Ecuador. Official death toll 315.
Mostly, these are coming from densely-packed migrant worker accommodation.
This is the scary part about what comes next. Not only in the US, with it's huge population of undocumented immigrants, but in areas like Africa, and especially in India, which has millions of poorly-treated migrant workers (who, btw, are making a mass exodus from the big cities to rural areas, spreading the virus wherever they go).
Quote:
It [Singapore] also has one completely dominant political party and a compliant media, but Prof Dale says even with "clear, crisp messaging to a community that trusts the government" he is concerned that "the average Singaporean still isn't quite grasping the importance of their individual role".
Multiply by a magnitude of factor for the US. Which is going to make a restart that much harder.
Quote:
Reminds me of the archmair generals who estimated that if Nazi Germany had built 20000 Tiger tanks or whatever, it could have held out.
And some of the currently proposed methods of restarting economies are just as unlikely as that:
So far, America is struggling to get into the millions of tests per week. This plan requires tens of millions per day. Most experts I’ve spoken to doubt that’s realistic anytime soon, though some believe it’s possible, eventually. So far, we’ve added testing capacity largely by repurposing existing labs and platforms. To add more, we need to build more labs, more machines, more tests. And there are already shortages of reagents, swabs, and health workers.
Quote:
But even if those constraints could be overcome, how are these 22 million daily tests going to be administered? By whom? How do we enforce compliance? If you refuse to get tested, are you fined? Jailed? Cut off from government benefits? Would the Supreme Court consider a proposal like this constitutional?
A sobering outlook:
Quote:
these aren’t plans for returning to anything even approaching normal. They either envision life under a surveillance and testing state of dystopian (but perhaps necessary!) proportions, or they envision a long period of economic and public health pain, as we wrestle the disease down only to see it roar back, as seems to be happening in Singapore.
Can't keep lock-downs in place indefinitely. At some point, economies will have to be restarted. The path and methods chosen to accomplish this will determine how things will unfold.
Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic
David Yaffe-Bellany and Michael Corkery
In Wisconsin and Ohio, farmers are dumping thousands of gallons of fresh milk into lagoons and manure pits. An Idaho farmer has dug huge ditches to bury 1 million pounds of onions. And in South Florida, a region that supplies much of the Eastern half of the United States with produce, tractors are crisscrossing bean and cabbage fields, plowing perfectly ripe vegetables back into the soil...
04-12-2020, 23:01
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Do we really need to produce this much milk in the first place?
04-13-2020, 01:15
Greyblades
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Whats in a need? There was a massive, seemingly permanent demand and that has started to dry up in the coronavirus' wake, pun intended.
Only short term alternative to dumping milk is to kill the cows. You cant just turn off the milk making; you can interrupt the required pregnancy cycle for milk production but they're still going to make milk for the current offspring. If they dont get the milk removed regularly they are going to start developing infections, and what do you do with excess milk? Cant just stick it in a silo and wait for better times.
04-13-2020, 02:47
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
(Standard) eggs are now $3.50-$4 a carton. Used to be like $1.50.
As some forms (e.g. meat) of production are disrupted, food becomes more expensive. Falling incomes combined with rising food cost has typically been a recipe for riots in most times and places. Let's see how that works out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
:inquisitive:
The immediate context. I'd been posting about the colossal, civilization-shaking ineptitude, negligence, corruption, and malice of the Trump administration, the sort that led Noam Chomsky to declare Trump the most dangerous criminal in history. You quoted my sentiment regarding a mechanism to punish society's maximally-destructive actors. Under the quote you made a comment imputing a premise about the sociopolitical significance of wealth. Practically speaking, you linked the two despite them - as I pointed out - having no strict relationship to one another. That was a very strange thing for you to do. Basically it looks like me complaining that 'these crooks are a disaster' and you interjecting with 'Why are you such a Commie?' It's a non-sequitur, or if it's not a non-sequitur then you would have to be saying that criticism of Trump necessarily reduces to the belief that wealth is an inherent evil.
Either way it's disturbing. Do you get it now?
If you're interested in wealth as a separate topic though, start with the two articles I linked.
Quote:
Numerous forms of power do this and have throughout history. Less so, though sadly only marginally, in many Western societies.
How does one negate power? Not counter it or shift it or redistribute it -- all of these have been tried, are being used and none of them answer the problem of power completely. So how does one negate it? And if successful, how does anything get done in its absence?
First of all, I object to taking for granted the idea that there are no answers to the question of the distribution of power. There have been different distributions of power in this country within living memory, albeit flawed in many dimensions. I swear, there is this conservative tendency to act as though things that have been tried and succeeded are impossible, in order to justify persisting with systems that are continuously failing right now. To wit, how many thousands of years of failed conservative policies does it take? This exchange unavoidably reminds me of the other one in the Democratic primary thread, where you seemed to be saying - I still don't quite understand - that because resources are not unlimited, it is impossible to adequately prepare for disasters and crises. Even though that seems to me so obviously, demonstrably wrong at face value at all levels and forms of governance, on the personal and institutional levels, and in all places.
The deeper leftist dream of spreading power out as widely as possible has indeed never been achieved comprehensively, but the case against trying to do even what we know can be done is the circular logic of futility, that there are always budding or resurgent oligarchs and aristocrats lurking somewhere like thirsting Chaos gods. It's an argument that amounts to humanity being eschatologically-doomed by its flaws (as opposed to redeemed by its virtues), which is like, maybe, but don't take pleasure in being part of the contras, and fully accept the ramifications of syllogistically-inevitable self-destruction (as some on the alt-right do).
At the top of the thread you referenced an ideal of "local control." Many leftists do explicitly organize their ideas around that concept, but there's a more general form of the argument that every individual should have some input on the local conditions that affect their lives. I oscillate on what this should mean in practice, since time and again we have seen "local control" mean space for parochial racists, NIMBYs, and cushy insiders to run rampant over their petty fiefdoms (thiefdoms).
Maybe you'd like to talk to the anarchists. (Is this what you mean by local control?)
Quote:
Some justice was meted out at Nuremburg. Some punishment and vindictiveness as well. It was, as you note, an imperfect tool. Attainder, either in the meaning of legislative determination of guilt absent trial or the confiscation of all real property and chattels has been, historically, much abused. Was your comment (which I thought a hyperbole when I read it) prompted by justice or vindictiveness? Only you know.
If you want to have a conversation on what actual mechanisms are either abstractly desirable, or practically available, for extraordinary cases of wrongdoing, that is naturally a very complex topic and I'm not comfortable carrying on about it in this thread. There are so many considerations. It could be that the law does not capture the nature of the crimes committed, or their scope is so vast and destructive and the need for resolution so acute that no preexisting process is adequate to the task (e.g. Nuremberg).
In Trump's case it's more a matter of his insulation from all accountability. Trump ought to suffer something like attainder based on his world-historical record of carnage, but the availability of attainder to Congress would not ensure its correct application for the same reasons that Trump achieved and remains in a position to perpetrate attainder-worthy deeds.
So yes, it's basically just venting.
Quote:
As to malfeasance, everything connected to this pandemic will be under a microscope for years. If such has occurred, it will out and criminal charges can be leveled as appropriate.
Continuing the above, we are a broken society, so it will never happen on any scale. Generally, a society that produces great crimes and the criminals who do them will not in the first place have what it takes to reckon with those symptoms - without revolution. As far as I am aware that is simply a descriptive fact of life; there is no specific form of either reform or revolution that I can think to advocate for to fix that.
Another aspect to the attainder, etc. discussion is that there is probably no way to engineer legal or institutional failsafes for extraordinary social circumstances, because those circumstances will tend to overwhelm pre-existing structures. If attainder became available tomorrow it would only become another tool for bad actors to subvert and abuse, for example by trying to strip Barack Obama of US citizenship for being a Kenyan Muslim or something.
In another callback to earlier in the post: it's very common to successfully prepare for natural disasters, but I don't think there is a way to plan for fundamental social disasters, those disasters being chronic and constitutive of human actors. In these social disasters the problem itself recursively handicaps any self-correction without a disruptive force majeure. Or to paraphrase HL Mencken, maybe we get the government we deserve, good and hard. I would rephrase that to say in a degraded environment all of us are subjected to the government deserved by the worst.
Look at those who reflexively say that the President must not be criticized during a time of national emergency, for the sake of preserving norms of comity.
They are incapable of admitting that the COVID emergency supervenes on the Trump emergency. For the existence of Donald Trump, the worst man ever elevated to high office is an emergency, an ongoing and overlapping one. But how did that come about?
Trump as emergency can only unleash the devastation it does because of its enabling by the whole Republican Party, so the Trump emergency supervenes the emergency of the Republican Party, of the biggest right-wing party in the world embracing fascism. But how did that come about?
If Republican politicians represent their voters well, and Trump represents them perfectly, then these voters being (at best) political nihilists in the 19th-century sense, who revel in cruelty and mysticism to the point of willingness to die if they can take down some Others with them, then the incentives that make all the preceding possible are established upon the common Republican individual. The emergency of the Republican Party supervenes on the Republican base at the bottom of it all. But the existence of such people in such numbers is itself an emergency whose effects are magnified over time.
In the space of a single generation, Republican leaders, by Republican politicians, by Republican voters, have brought this country - and so much of the world - to its knees. How much more can we survive?
When there is such a fundamental underlying conflict, everything else follows from it, and to surmount the latter is conditional upon surmounting the root. If we were the sort of country to elect Biden-type centrists to every single political office, then we would be the most progressive and prosperous country in the world - and I admit that as a leftist.
In conclusion, there is arguably no greater human threat to the average person than the existence of the Republican base. Americans have a duty to themselves and to the world to reckon with that gutting reality.
Quote:
As to those pumps, the stated purpose was to build up a federal "reserve" that could be deployed to hot spots in danger of being overwhelmed. Mind you, setting up such a reserve in the manner it was done and with those hot spots already appearing and clamoring for resources was poorly handled -- but I am generally readier to believe in ineptitude and ham-handed reactive efforts by government in general (and this sad sack administration in particular) than I am to assume malfeasance.
Hanlon's Razor is defeated by the coexistence of incompetence and malfeasance, which are both in evidence in the administration's handling of the pandemic, and in basically every aspect of its policy agenda from Day 1. The benefit of the doubt applies only when you don't know the score, or else it's just an unconditional allowance.
04-13-2020, 06:03
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyblades
Whats in a need? There was a massive, seemingly permanent demand and that has started to dry up in the coronavirus' wake, pun intended.
Only short term alternative to dumping milk is to kill the cows. You cant just turn off the milk making; you can interrupt the required pregnancy cycle for milk production but they're still going to make milk for the current offspring. If they dont get the milk removed regularly they are going to start developing infections, and what do you do with excess milk? Cant just stick it in a silo and wait for better times.
Blades, please stop it man. Just google once before shooting from the hip.
US Dairy is one of the most regulated and controlled goods by the USDA, we have several policies mandating minimum levels of prices, production, and subsidization of milk and dairy products. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/anim...ry/policy.aspx
So again, I ask the question. Do we really need to make this much milk?
Also, you can store milk 6-12 months by pasteurizing with an ultra high temp process and then aseptically filling into a tetra-pak or similar container. https://scidoc.org/IJFS-2326-3350-09-001e.php
You could also just turn it into cheese or butter.
04-13-2020, 06:19
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
words
I'm looking at what the local Republicans are saying on FB. CUrrently holding a poll on whether they would take Bill Gates vaccine or Hydroxychlorquine.
The unproven drug is winning 228 to 24. These are the same people saying that not being allowed to go on the beach is one step away from willingly hitching a ride to a concentration camp.
Seamus says similar things that my parents say, which to me is not so much being blind to the reality but simply not willing to accept the implications it entails.
It always has to be a problem with 'both sides' or some intrinsic sin of humanity that we are facing our current problems because how can you even acknowledge living in an America where a specific segment (that you may still nominally identify with) has devolved so far underneath your nose.
04-13-2020, 10:19
Greyblades
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
Blades, please stop it man. Just google once before shooting from the hip.
Good job covering for your failure to communicate by blaming the reader for not picking up a context you made no effort to allude to. Doesnt make you look like an asshole at all.
Quote:
Also, you can store milk 6-12 months by pasteurizing with an ultra high temp process and then aseptically filling into a tetra-pak or similar container. https://scidoc.org/IJFS-2326-3350-09-001e.php
You could also just turn it into cheese or butter.
All of which requres production capacity that didnt exist when the drop in demand came. Even were the pasturisers, cheese and butter makers inclined to keep processing with little guarentee of even breaking even let alone turning a profit you would be bottlenecked by the need to process much more milk than the existing infrstructure is capable of, thats not even getting into storage of both milk waiting to be processed and the finished product.
Fortunate then that milk production can be stalled through holding off on the next cycle of insemination instead of something drastic like a culling. Less traumatic for aĺll involved to be disposing of milk than bodies.
04-13-2020, 12:24
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
but our policies have only pushed production higher and higher per year.
Probably true for more than just dairy. Certainly corn is in that category, especially with the asinine use of corn to make ethanol.
Btw, panic-buying is not restricted to the average city-dweller:
Monty is right that a longer reply on any number of issues are not germane to this particular thread. So I will opt out of such here.
As to the current pandemic, I am of the opinion that pretty much every government malf'ed this one. As with all "black swan" events, the warning signs were mis-read or ignored, the potential for a crisis of this kind was known in advance -- but the specific occurrence itself so infrequent -- that complacency set in and preparation levels were allowed to slip. So collectively nobody was prepared for when the, in retrospect clearly inevitable, crisis arrived.
This is a norm of human history and human nature (only partly answered by Santayana's advice), for we are flawed beings however good our intent and our workings are flawed as well.
Last I say on this vein in this thread. Open a political philosphy line or summat if you wish for other stuff.
I pray daily for those affected by this virus and for us all to weather this crisis as best may be. I will social distance and wear a mask to protect my family and immuno-compromised mom-in-law. I will grade my students' assignments. I will adjust to what comes and make the best of it.
04-13-2020, 16:23
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Probably true for more than just dairy. Certainly corn is in that category, especially with the asinine use of corn to make ethanol.
Btw, panic-buying is not restricted to the average city-dweller:
It has long been a common practice to turn waste food into pork. It might be worth looking at turning fresh food into shelf stable versions as well.
04-13-2020, 16:27
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
This is a norm of human history and human nature (only partly answered by Santayana's advice), for we are flawed beings however good our intent and our workings are flawed as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
I will grade my students' assignments. I will adjust to what comes and make the best of it.
Did the first come from the second? Are you going to make your students aware of their flawed workings, or are you going to adjust to what comes in front of you and make the best of it?
Advice: make a potato stamp with "Must try harder" etched in it.
04-13-2020, 17:19
Seamus Fermanagh
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Did the first come from the second? Are you going to make your students aware of their flawed workings, or are you going to adjust to what comes in front of you and make the best of it?
Advice: make a potato stamp with "Must try harder" etched in it.
Deadlines have essentially shifted to "anything that doesn't have me issuing an 'incomplete' for the course. My required live observation assignment went to livestream acceptable, etc. Conditions are as they are. My single mom students are now at home teachers, still working online like me, and trapped with their children. To not respect that would be unkind.
Generally, "try harder" is a waste of time. The ones who try hard will do so under almost any adversity. The ones who want to skate whenever possible will do so regardless. The ones who are truly trying but floundering we can help out a bit and/or refer to counselors etc. They are my clients and I am there to help them as best I may.
04-13-2020, 18:28
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Anybody else besides me see legal proceedings being brought against the USN as a result of this:
The NDAA [for fiscal year 2020] created a limited exception to the Feres Doctrine “for personal injury or death incident to the service of a member of the uniformed services that was caused by the medical malpractice of a Department of Defense health care provider,” provided that the “act or omission constituting medical malpractice occurred in a covered military medical treatment facility.” The term “Department of Defense health care provider” means “a member of the uniformed services, civilian employee of the Department of Defense, or personal services contractor of the Department [of Defense] …” while a “covered military treatment facility” includes certain military medical treatment facilities maintained by the Secretary of Defense.
Elsewhere, some governors and lawmakers have watched in disbelief as they have sought to close deals on precious supplies, only to have the federal government swoop in to preempt the arrangements. Officials in one state are so worried about this possibility that they are considering dispatching local police or even the National Guard to greet two chartered FedEx planes scheduled to arrive in the next week with millions of masks from China, according to people familiar with the planning. These people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, asked that their state not be identified to avoid flagging federal officials to their shipment.
"This is Blasphemy. This is Madness!"
:shame:
04-13-2020, 20:54
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyblades
Good job covering for your failure to communicate by blaming the reader for not picking up a context you made no effort to allude to. Doesnt make you look like an asshole at all.
When you jump in with an opinion that has zero research, you are the one putting yourself in the position to be called out. If you asked "who will be the next Labour leader" and I start talking as if it was a US style open primary with Lib Dem and Tory moderates voting, you would rightfully tell me that I have no idea what I am talking about and that the UK operates on 'one member, one vote'.
Quote:
All of which requres production capacity that didnt exist when the drop in demand came. Even were the pasturisers, cheese and butter makers inclined to keep processing with little guarentee of even breaking even let alone turning a profit you would be bottlenecked by the need to process much more milk than the existing infrstructure is capable of, thats not even getting into storage of both milk waiting to be processed and the finished product.
Fortunate then that milk production can be stalled through holding off on the next cycle of insemination instead of something drastic like a culling. Less traumatic for aĺll involved to be disposing of milk than bodies.
A few things:
1. We shouldn't have been producing this much milk anyway because the demand wasn't actually there and we have known this for decades now. Counter to original point that there was a 'constant, permanent demand'. This was incorrect. If you check the stats, there is always surplus carried over from the previous year for several years which indicates a consistent over production of product. We should have done what the UK has done recently: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/milk-pro...e-how-to-apply
2. Production machines are typically not running 24/7. This would inhibit the ability to perform proper preventative maintenance activities and increase the need for labor to operate and monitor. There is always the potential to increase output without having to buy a whole new machine by paying for the labor costs associated with the higher run rate. It's an over simplification that increased production comes from new machinery.
3. Both UK and US have programs to pay cheese and butter makers for their surplus and store it for long period in order to ensure they stay afloat during high surpluses: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/interven...ge-aid-schemes
So again, its a matter of being defiant in pushing your intuitive thought without following-up. 'They can't make a profit with such surpluses, they don't have the machines, how could they anticipate such a drop in demand.' All of these issues were tackled by farm bills in the US dating back to the 1930s and for the UK even earlier.
04-13-2020, 21:14
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I will admit now looking back I was a bit of dick in how I worded the response last night.
04-13-2020, 22:21
Pannonian
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
When you jump in with an opinion that has zero research, you are the one putting yourself in the position to be called out. If you asked "who will be the next Labour leader" and I start talking as if it was a US style open primary with Lib Dem and Tory moderates voting, you would rightfully tell me that I have no idea what I am talking about and that the UK operates on 'one member, one vote'.
A few things:
1. We shouldn't have been producing this much milk anyway because the demand wasn't actually there and we have known this for decades now. Counter to original point that there was a 'constant, permanent demand'. This was incorrect. If you check the stats, there is always surplus carried over from the previous year for several years which indicates a consistent over production of product. We should have done what the UK has done recently: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/milk-pro...e-how-to-apply
2. Production machines are typically not running 24/7. This would inhibit the ability to perform proper preventative maintenance activities and increase the need for labor to operate and monitor. There is always the potential to increase output without having to buy a whole new machine by paying for the labor costs associated with the higher run rate. It's an over simplification that increased production comes from new machinery.
3. Both UK and US have programs to pay cheese and butter makers for their surplus and store it for long period in order to ensure they stay afloat during high surpluses: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/interven...ge-aid-schemes
So again, its a matter of being defiant in pushing your intuitive thought without following-up. 'They can't make a profit with such surpluses, they don't have the machines, how could they anticipate such a drop in demand.' All of these issues were tackled by farm bills in the US dating back to the 1930s and for the UK even earlier.
Can't you blame the EU for any inefficiencies like we do here in the UK?
04-14-2020, 00:29
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pannonian
Can't you blame the EU for any inefficiencies like we do here in the UK?
I actually refrained from talking about EU and tried to focus solely on US and UK because I am not entirely sure EU agricultural policies are based on sound principles.
Not sure if you want to take the Brexit route on this topic...
EDIT: Well, let me rephrase. EU policies are very confusing to me and although I can from a high level understand the goal and method of many policies (many which the US and UK also have implemented individually), I can not wrap my head around the implementation of those policies. In particular how the EU does not pick and choose winners and losers and whether it is allowing individual states to internally compete and specialize in agriculture sub-fields.
04-14-2020, 01:02
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I for one appreciate ACIN's dairy industry knowledge, and would say it's an honor to be corrected by someone who knows their stuff.
Trump says it's true that opening up could lead to death, but: "Staying at home leads to death also. And it's very traumatic for this country. Staying at home, if you look at numbers, that leads to a different kind of death, perhaps, but it leads to death also."
Staying at home is the mindkiller, the little death that brings total obliteration.
Certified registered nurse anesthetist Derrick Smith is no stranger to the horrors of losing patients. But now, the coronavirus pandemic has pushed him into a completely different, "much more terrifying" reality.
Smith, who is predominantly treating Covid-19 patients at a hospital in New York City, revealed the tragic last words of a dying man he was about to place on a ventilator: "Who's going to pay for it?" the coronavirus patient asked Smith in between labored breaths.
A major California labor union that claimed to have discovered a stockpile of 39 million masks for health care workers fighting the coronavirus was duped in an elaborate scam uncovered by FBI investigators, according to a newspaper report Sunday.
Investigators stumbled onto the scheme while looking into whether they could intercept the masks for the Federal Emergency Management Agency under the Defense Production Act, the U.S. attorney’s office said Friday.
The federal government has been quietly seizing supplies across the country as the outbreak spreads. But in this case, there was no warehouse, and there were no masks to seize, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Also beyond satire.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Monty is right that a longer reply on any number of issues are not germane to this particular thread. So I will opt out of such here.
As to the current pandemic, I am of the opinion that pretty much every government malf'ed this one. As with all "black swan" events, the warning signs were mis-read or ignored, the potential for a crisis of this kind was known in advance -- but the specific occurrence itself so infrequent -- that complacency set in and preparation levels were allowed to slip. So collectively nobody was prepared for when the, in retrospect clearly inevitable, crisis arrived.
This is a norm of human history and human nature (only partly answered by Santayana's advice), for we are flawed beings however good our intent and our workings are flawed as well.
Last I say on this vein in this thread. Open a political philosphy line or summat if you wish for other stuff.
I pray daily for those affected by this virus and for us all to weather this crisis as best may be. I will social distance and wear a mask to protect my family and immuno-compromised mom-in-law. I will grade my students' assignments. I will adjust to what comes and make the best of it.
We can continue by PM, but here we should distinguish between material and institutional preparation, and deployment in the actual time of need. As I said in another thread (or earlier in this one), you can truly have unlimited resources, but if leadership refuses to make use of them then they are trivial. Few countries have had "good" responses to the pandemic through and through, and those that have have been clustered around past experiences with both the Chinese state and local epidemics.
But here in America, based purely on our material and institutional readiness on paper, we should have been one of the best-placed countries on Earth to contain the disease. Never forget. That we failed was not due to any shortage of money, time, expertise, planning, nor was it a function of inauspicious geography - just the opposite.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Deadlines have essentially shifted to "anything that doesn't have me issuing an 'incomplete' for the course. My required live observation assignment went to livestream acceptable, etc. Conditions are as they are. My single mom students are now at home teachers, still working online like me, and trapped with their children. To not respect that would be unkind.
Generally, "try harder" is a waste of time. The ones who try hard will do so under almost any adversity. The ones who want to skate whenever possible will do so regardless. The ones who are truly trying but floundering we can help out a bit and/or refer to counselors etc. They are my clients and I am there to help them as best I may.
Lot of professor stories on Twitter about how hard this transition has been for many students, from their financial or living arrangements to their ability to follow the coursework.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
Anybody else besides me see legal proceedings being brought against the USN as a result of this:
Mmm. Like the cruise ships, it does form a sort of ad hoc test chamber for observing the spread of the virus. I may have seen the story of a contagion on a naval vessel play out in fiction too. :sweatdrop:
"The president of the United States calls the shots," Mr Trump said during a combative press conference in which he feuded with reporters.
Quote:
But when journalists queried whether he had the authority to over-ride stay-at-home orders imposed on a state-by-state basis, Mr Trump said: "When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total. "It's total. The governors know that."
I think Fearless Leaders' actions meet the criteria of Section 1088 of the USN Regulations:
Quote:
1088. Relief of a Commanding Officer by a Subordinate.
1. It is conceivable that most unusual and extraordinary circumstances may arise in which the relief from duty of a commanding officer by a subordinate becomes necessary, either by placing the commanding officer under arrest or on the sick list. Such action shall never be taken without the approval of the Commandant of the Marine Corps or the Chief of Naval Personnel, as appropriate, or the senior officer present, except when reference to such higher authority is undoubtedly impracticable because of the delay involved or for other clearly obvious reasons. In any event, a complete report of the matter shall be made to the Commandant of the Marine Corps or the Chief of Naval Personnel, as appropriate, and the senior officer present, setting forth all facts in the case and the reasons for the action or recommendation, with particular regard to the degree of urgency involved.
2. In order that a subordinate officer, acting upon his or her own initiative, may be vindicated for relieving a commanding officer from duty, the situation must be obvious and clear, and must admit of the single conclusion that the retention of command by such commanding officer will seriously and irretrievably prejudice the public interests. The subordinate officer so acting
a. Must be next in succession to command.
b. Must be unable to refer the matter to a common superior for the reasons set forth in the preceding paragraph.
c. Must be certain that the prejudicial actions of the commanding officer are not caused by instructions unknown to him or her.
d. Must have given the matter much careful consideration, and have made such exhaustive investigation of all the circumstances as may be practicable.
e. Must be thoroughly convinced that the conclusion to relieve the commanding officer is one which a reasonable, prudent and experienced officer would regard as a necessary consequence from the facts thus determined to exist.
God I hate this stupid megalomaniac....~:mad
04-14-2020, 03:10
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
God I hate this stupid megalomaniac....~:mad
That's Dumb Criminal Bigot - sir.
How would a president nullify a lockdown? I've heard of using emergencies to declare martial law, but I'm not sure I've ever heard of - what, sending federal troops to force people out of their homes and into the workplaces and businesses? A big burly Marine looking mean on the street corner beside a flowing megaposter of Trump's face captioned with "CONSUME"?
04-14-2020, 03:28
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
How would a president nullify a lockdown?
He can't. 10th Amendment. And besides, he never instituted a national lock-down in the first place. The man has completely lost cabin pressure:dizzy2:
04-14-2020, 03:40
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai
He can't. 10th Amendment. And besides, he never instituted a national lock-down in the first place. The man has completely lost cabin pressure:dizzy2:
Right, the states are the ones who have (inconsistently) applied various social distancing or lockdown policies. But the Constitution is a piece of paper that Trump has never much feared, so I'm asking how he would physically override the governors. The only way I can imagine is literal men with guns forcing civilians out of their homes. Almost certainly a dumb and corrosive bluff.
One can never get enough of Trump's idea of political philosophy. The president has unlimited authority to do what they want, but it's not the federal government's responsibility to provide material assistance to saving American lives. A common joke over the past years has been that, previous historiography has tended to regard ancient and medieval historical works with a grain of salt where they denounce particular kings and rulers, because often the criticisms seem so hyperbolic or outlandish to modern eyes that they have to be apocryphal exaggerations or outright fabrications - right? Now we know, yeah, Caligula for sure had a horse consul.
04-14-2020, 05:38
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Almost certainly a dumb and corrosive bluff.
Actually, it's typical Fearless Leader. When he feels that the narrative is focusing on someone, or something other than himself ......(ie. the NYT article on what he knew about the outbreak):
......he does, or says something to bring that focus back to himself and tries to take control of the narrative.
Hopefully, other news sources besides CNN and MSNBC (who cut away to commercial from the propagandist-like video reel he played at Monday's "Fearless Leader Show") start cutting short their coverage altogether:pray:
04-14-2020, 06:14
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Right, the states are the ones who have (inconsistently) applied various social distancing or lockdown policies. But the Constitution is a piece of paper that Trump has never much feared, so I'm asking how he would physically override the governors. The only way I can imagine is literal men with guns forcing civilians out of their homes. Almost certainly a dumb and corrosive bluff.
If Trump were to say tomorrow that he hereby revokes all stay-at-home orders and to disobey the state governors orders, you would have a third of the country congregating and spreading the disease to the point that we would be fucked anyway. WOuldn't even matter if the rest of the country continued to follow social distancing.
04-15-2020, 04:00
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
New US map tab on John Hopkins COVID resource. Seems to be missing some data however.
Trump wants to make sure the $1200 relief checks are held back to ensure they come printed with his name.
The first tranche is supposedly out. I haven't received anything yet; we're going to need more administrative capacity. But can we have an automatic countercyclical universal income (such as Rashida Tlaib, Ro Khanna, and even - Tim Ryan! - propose) linked to unemployment rate and other indicators? $2000 a month for all adults (and $500 per child) would be swell in hard times. In a sane world it would be a sound compromise as a temporary stimulus.
Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name
If Trump were to say tomorrow that he hereby revokes all stay-at-home orders and to disobey the state governors orders, you would have a third of the country congregating and spreading the disease to the point that we would be fucked anyway. WOuldn't even matter if the rest of the country continued to follow social distancing.
De Santis already overruled counties that tried to institute stronger measures than those adopted by the state. I think other governors applied similar restrictions too (in keeping with the typical governing philosophy of state Republicans).
Trump wants to make sure the $1200 relief checks are held back to ensure they come printed with his name.
Got mine today. Good thing I have direct deposit set up!
Quote:
De Santis already overruled counties that tried to institute stronger measures than those adopted by the state. I think other governors applied similar restrictions too (in keeping with the typical governing philosophy of state Republicans).
I mean he also declared that WWE was an essential business in Florida so common sense doesnt seem to be his strong suit.
04-16-2020, 04:17
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by Hooahguy
Got mine today. Good thing I have direct deposit set up!
Yep, today here too. Sucks for the analog people.
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I mean he also declared that WWE was an essential business in Florida so common sense doesnt seem to be his strong suit.
I would look into any financial connections with the McMahons.
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South Dakota’s governor resisted ordering people to stay home. Now it has one of the nation’s largest coronavirus hot spots.
...
As governors across the country fell into line in recent weeks, South Dakota’s top elected leader stood firm: There would be no statewide order to stay home.
Such edicts to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, Gov. Kristi L. Noem said disparagingly, reflected a “herd mentality.” It was up to individuals — not government — to decide whether “to exercise their right to work, to worship and to play. Or to even stay at home.”
And besides, the first-term Republican told reporters at a briefing this month, “South Dakota is not New York City.”
But now South Dakota is home to one of the largest single coronavirus clusters anywhere in the United States, with more than 300 workers at a giant pork-processing plant falling ill. With the case numbers continuing to spike, the company was forced to announce the indefinite closure of the facility Sunday, threatening the U.S. food supply.
“A shelter-in-place order is needed now. It is needed today,” said Sioux Falls Mayor Paul TenHaken, whose city is at the center of South Dakota’s outbreak and who has had to improvise with voluntary recommendations in the absence of statewide action.
But the governor continued to resist. Instead, she used a media briefing Monday to announce trials of a drug that President Trump has repeatedly touted as a potential breakthrough in the fight against the coronavirus, despite a lack of scientific evidence.
“It’s an exciting day,” she boasted, repeatedly citing her conversations with presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner.
At least it's a small state.
EDIT: Protestors in Ohio demanding Governor DeWine lift restrictions on business operation. Yes, it does resemble that.Youknow.
That picture is terrifying for a whole bunch of reasons.
It would certainly be a tragic irony if those protests ended up being hot spots. Reminds me of that lady in Texas who said COVID-19 was a hoax and then two weeks later died from it.
04-16-2020, 06:23
Montmorency
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I've made posts, including an in-depth one, regarding the relationship of testing volume to true incidence. It turns out Nate Silver was writing about that contemporaneously, I just missed it.
BTW, New York, if not yet the country in aggregate, has the outbreak more or less under control for the moment; we've bent our local peak under the max capacity of the healthcare system (which we also did a good job in expanding). We desperately need results for serological surveys, the sooner the better. The current US CFR is 5% (640K positives/31K dead). If the true incidence has been vastly higher than what is directly measured, then we have a best-case scenario where the disease really isn't noticeable for the vast majority of the population and we can transition to targeted policies for a low attack rate. If the true incidence is 5 or 10 times higher (e.g. ~3-6 million infected so far), then prolonged quarantines are necessary to avoid a surge of tens of millions of hospitalizations, and at least a million deaths, in a short period of time.
As I mentioned in a recent post, NIH is soliciting volunteers for serological survey. What's going on in other countries? The more data the better for everyone.
In the last week, Hokkaido has recorded 135 new confirmed cases of Covid-19. Unlike the first outbreak in February, there is no evidence the virus has been re-imported from outside Japan. None of the new cases are foreigners, nor have any of those infected travelled outside Japan in the last month.
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Even now, more than three months after Japan recorded its first case, it is still only testing a tiny percentage of the population. "The major lesson to take from Hokkaido is that even if you are successful in the containment the first time around, it's difficult to isolate and maintain the containment for a long period. Unless you expand the testing capacity, it's difficult to identify community transmission and hospital transmission."
The big rush to restart the economy here by Fearless Leader and some of the state governors, is going to mirror the same results as Hokkaido, seeing as how we are not testing anywhere near what we should be.
And then you have ignorant governors like Kristi L. Noem bloviating about how S. Dakota "is not New York City". How do you like like it now, sweetheart??
Matt Seely, a spokesman for the conservative group that organized the protest warned, "If something isn't put in place soon, you'll see in the form of a protest—businesses just opening. Because, truthfully, for the $1,000 fine, most businesses could sustain that fine because they'll at least be able to make a living."
Anyone else besides me think that India is the next powder-keg waiting to explode?:
But according to Smithfield employees, their union representatives, and advocates for the immigrant community in Sioux Falls, the outbreak that led to the plant closure was avoidable. They allege early requests for personal protective equipment were ignored, that sick workers were incentivised to continue working, and that information regarding the spread of the virus was kept from them, even when they were at risk of exposing family and the broader public.
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On the same day that Helen received her results, the issue of the Smithfield plant had turned fully political. Mayor TenHaken formally requested that Governor Noem issue a shelter-in-place order for Sioux Falls' surrounding counties as well as an isolation centre. She denied both requests. Despite the steep increase in cases, Noem also continued to decline to issue a shelter-in-place order in South Dakota, specifically saying that such an order would not have prevented the Smithfield outbreak. "That is absolutely false," she said. Instead, she approved the first state test of hydroxychloroquine, a drug that President Donald Trump has frequently cited as a possible treatment for coronavirus.
Will the stupidity ever end?
:shame:
04-17-2020, 18:08
Idaho
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
I genuinely worry for you Americans. I just don't think you are culturally and economically able to manage this kind of event. You have a (quite right) mistrust of government (while being nationalistic and prone to support bombast), combined with an individualist overt culture (with a system that's designed to both reward the rich and powerful, while maintaining the pretense that it's easy to be rich and powerful).
The narrative from trump is all about externalising blame, and it seems that he will keep pushing that line. There is no soul searching, no lessons learned. No change.
I told ya Japan was in for it with their cavalier attitude to testing (or I expressed it offline).
I've seen various comments online and off, including quoted in news reports, from individuals in the US and other countries, to the effect that the subject didn't make much of the pandemic because 'if it was serious the government would be acting like it.' I think this isn't just a widespread sentiment, but a more basic psychological heuristic. The signals the authorities send to the public can be as important as any material decision. Thus the maxim to act fast and have no regrets.
Several thousand cars flooded the streets around the state Capitol in Lansing, Mich., on Wednesday to protest the governor's extended stay-at-home order. Cars jammed the streets around the Capitol building, filling the air with a cacophony of honking. People draped in American and "Don't Tread on Me" flags blared "We're Not Gonna Take It" and "God Bless The USA" out of car stereos.
A very American kind of protest protest, in a bad sense.
Yeah, India is screwed. I can only hope this pandemic weakens rather than strengthens the grip on power men like Modi and Putin have.
How you know you've lost containment: Singapore edition.
This is the part where we get Dutch angles and POV-cam of monsters bounding through the hallways of a research complex as employees howl in the background. New Zealand and Taiwan still looking golden though.
Here's an article for your interest, on how South Korea plans to maintain containment in the medium-term without freezing normal life or the economy.
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South Korea’s virus-containment strategy will build on an intensive contact tracing and testing campaign that experts say has been instrumental in uncovering webs of infections that might otherwise have gone undetected. Besides the testing kits and tracing techniques that have already been rolled out, South Korea plans to build out a “smart city” database and get quarantine violators to agree to use tracking bracelets. The database was designed to share information between cities on things like traffic and pollution. Health authorities plan to leverage that network to reduce the time it takes to find and isolate coronavirus cases. The database will be operated by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), giving epidemiological investigators real-time data feeds on patients, including their whereabouts, times spent at specific locations, CCTV footage, and credit card transactions.
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Another key to the South Korean virus containment strategy is stepping up border controls. Around half of new cases in recent weeks have been found in people arriving from overseas, according to the KCDC. Rather than outright bans, South Korea is using widespread testing and technology-enabled tracking to allow people to travel to the country. Mandatory testing and quarantines now apply to nearly all arrivals from overseas, including citizens. South Korea installed walk-through facilities this month at Seoul’s Incheon International Airport to test anyone who arrives with symptoms. Those who don’t show symptoms will also be tested within three days. All arrivals must download a government app that tracks their location and requires users to report any symptoms. Then everyone, regardless of nationality or whether they tested negative, must self-isolate for two weeks.
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Some of the long-term policies being discussed include making workplaces less crowded, and persuading Koreans that it is not a virtue to show up at work when sick, Yoon Tae-ho, director general for public health policy at the health ministry told Reuters. In a glimpse of what could become long-term practices, the KCDC last week outlined preventive measures for schools, churches and some entertainment facilities that included disinfection schedules, guidelines on how close people can be to each other and temperature checks. “Our goal is to be able to control infections in a way that our health and medical system, including personnel and sickbeds, can handle them at usual levels,” Park, the health minister, said. South Korean officials say that means keeping new cases under 50 per day, a level first reached last week. On Tuesday, South Korea reported 27 new cases. The country is also stepping up efforts to improve testing and boost resources for hospitals. Hospitals are testing all pneumonia patients, and staff at places like nursing homes and medical facilities will be regularly tested. Authorities have designated two new hospitals and are building a third to specialize in treating infectious diseases.
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“We will have to step up our daily hygiene and disease prevention standards,” Yoon said. “It will be a tedious battle, but we have to do this.”
04-17-2020, 21:23
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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I genuinely worry for you Americans. I just don't think you are culturally and economically able to manage this kind of event. You have a (quite right) mistrust of government (while being nationalistic and prone to support bombast), combined with an individualist overt culture (with a system that's designed to both reward the rich and powerful, while maintaining the pretense that it's easy to be rich and powerful).
I agree with the cultural and economic deficits in US society in regards to this pandemic. However, in looking around the world at how other countries are dealing with it, I don't see many countries doing much better. In fact, the countries that seem to be dealing with this pandemic the best, are authoritarian regimes that use police and military to enforce local edicts, and highly invasive technology to track its' population. I'm personally willing to adhere to temporary lock-down orders, even if it's enforced. I am not willing to be subjected to personally invasive tracking technology. Yet to be seen is what will happen with Germany loosening their economy a bit, Sweden's trust in its' citizens to voluntarily adhering to social distancing, and Denmark's "deep-freeze" approach to its' economy.
Cultural rift here has been happening for a very long time. Lately that's no more evident than in our politics. Blue vs. Red, Urban vs Rural, Rich vs Poor. Picking just one issue (amongst the many), the Affordable Care Act of 2010, highlights the rift quite well.
Before the law, people with significant health needs were either charged much higher premiums for coverage in the individual-insurance market, or denied coverage altogether because they had a preexisting condition. Those rules benefited healthier people buying individual coverage: Because those with greater needs were systematically excluded, insurers had to pay out fewer claims, allowing them to hold down premiums for everyone else. The ACA upended that arrangement. Through a long list of reforms, it required insurers to sell coverage at comparable prices to those with greater and lesser health needs—a policy known as “community rating.” It asked the young and healthy to pay more for coverage so that it would be affordable, and available, for older and sicker consumers.
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The widespread lockdowns now being implemented to contain the spread of the coronavirus rest on the same underlying principle. In even the most adverse scenarios, most Americans will not be seriously sickened or killed by the disease. That means the nation is now imposing costs on many people who are less likely to die of the coronavirus, in order to reduce the risk for those who are the most vulnerable.
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It’s not too surprising to see Trump and other Republicans bridle against social distancing: Their complaints fit with the right’s long-standing unease about any policy that shares risk by imposing costs broadly. The entrenched power of that belief is why Corlette is pessimistic the country will preserve widespread limits on activity while the disease remains concentrated in relatively few places. “I have zero optimism we will be able to sustain that,” she says. “It may be sustained in pockets of the country, certain states or certain cities. But it’s hard to see this nationwide for much longer. As a country, we are not great at embracing the social contract.”
That last part is what it's all about. In those places that the pandemic is lightly affecting (mainly rural America), those places want to get back to work right now, damn the torpedoes; essentially throwing more susceptible (read as the elderly and the poor) portions of our society under the bus, so-to-speak. Getting a paycheck (for the less well off) and raking in dividends (for the rich) is more important than risking infection and the possibility of death. My own personal caveat in judging the correctness of that attitude, is that my children are grown and on their own; I am a single divorcee; I own my home and truck outright; and I have no outstanding debts including credit cards. Hard to say if my attitude would be different were I 30 years younger and carrying lots of debt.:shrug:
As to our economic woes....hell, that's been going on for decades, and it's only going to get worse. The next crash is going to be worse than this one, despite how catastrophic this one is because we are repeating the very same mistakes we've made in the past.
So yes, the worry is warranted.
04-18-2020, 07:54
Idaho
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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I agree with the cultural and economic deficits in US society in regards to this pandemic. However, in looking around the world at how other countries are dealing with it, I don't see many countries doing much better.
I think almost all countries are dealing with it better - you've already got the highest death rate. And we are really only starting with this. Yes we might be approaching the middle of the actual first wave covid deaths in most countries - but the us isn't. It will open up sooner and have more waves of death. And, more significantly, I don't think it will deal as well with the really critical phase - managing the impact of the economic contraction.
04-18-2020, 09:04
a completely inoffensive name
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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Originally Posted by Idaho
I think almost all countries are dealing with it better - you've already got the highest death rate. And we are really only starting with this. Yes we might be approaching the middle of the actual first wave covid deaths in most countries - but the us isn't. It will open up sooner and have more waves of death. And, more significantly, I don't think it will deal as well with the really critical phase - managing the impact of the economic contraction.
Only time will tell. We have no idea in the long run what the numbers will be from India, Brazil, or even China (unless we assume their numbers are honest).
At the end of the day, American politicians in Congress will do what they need to maintain our hegemony and keep industry knee deep in profits. Our political dysfunction is a manifestation of the lack of a real competitor.
04-18-2020, 11:56
ReluctantSamurai
Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
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I think almost all countries are dealing with it better - you've already got the highest death rate
I would disagree with this. The US is the most populous country outside of China to be dealing with this, and I would suspect has the most number of urban areas outside of China, as well. Stands to reason there will be more total deaths. The US currently has the 9th highest # of deaths per capita. Belgium has the highest, followed by Spain, Italy, France, and then the UK. Going by just numbers, the US has almost half the per capita deaths than the UK (and btw, less than even Sweden). Does that mean we're doing twice as good a job? Hardly. The total # of deaths, IMHO, is not a good indicator of how well a country is handling the outbreak.
And we've yet to see what's going to happen in India and Africa, as well as the Soviet Union. All three are just starting to ascend the all too familiar "curve". Then there are the unmitigated disasters of Spain and Italy, and the emerging disasters in Brazil and Ecuador. So I would say the US is doing better than some, worse than others. Now if you want to bring in the supposed level of medical treatment....that's another story.
As far as dealing with the economic depression, that's yet to be seen. I don't think it's going to be pretty anywhere on this planet.:shrug:
