EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

What amazes me is how few facts are being used as context in the Brexit talks. Arguments like following a result of a referendum are being talked to no end, but i am sure the normal people would be more interested in things like food price.

UK imports 51% of its food supply. From that 51%, EU countries are importing 70%. Those who support no deal. One has to wonder how much the price of food is going up?

Tariff for non EU food products are currently 9% and additional customs costs 2%. So conservative estimate would be 5% increase to food prices, while 20% of food imports would switch to non EU countries.

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

What amazes me is how few facts are being used as context in the Brexit talks. Arguments like following a result of a referendum are being talked to no end, but i am sure the normal people would be more interested in things like food price.

UK imports 51% of its food supply. From that 51%, EU countries are importing 70%. Those who support no deal. One has to wonder how much the price of food is going up?

Tariff for non EU food products are currently 9% and additional customs costs 2%. So conservative estimate would be 5% increase to food prices, while 20% of food imports would switch to non EU countries.

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Gove, one of the leading Leave figures and a current Cabinet minister, has said that no deal will see food prices rise. Do Brexit supporters address this point? I don't think I've seen any Brexiteers address the issues raised by the Haulage people either, the people whom trade is reliant on. They're usually more keen to talk about theoretical macro-economic models that the 1 in 20 pet economist touts, whilst ignoring the nuts and bolts that macro-economies consist of. Basically pushing the line that everything will be ok, whilst dismissing all concrete evidence against. The only concrete argument Brexiteers have is the 52%. Every other bit of evidence is against them.

Was talking with a friend about Brexit over sushi. Neither of us think the MPs have the balls to go through with no deal. I think the battle over May's deal is the end game. If it doesn't pass, Brexit is over.

Been a few news updates on Brexit over the last week...

The Ferry Contract
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46714984

A Furunculus Solution? Britain to join CPTPP (UK has expressed interest, they are open to it) at cost of EU trade?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/c...ing-free-trade

Labour wants Second Referendum (72%), except for Corbyn wanting an alternative
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...abour-can-back

With some big firms moving to France due to the wanting to remain within EU markets and a few more stories floating around. Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving.

Will anyone accept the Seaborne contract? It has all the hallmarks of graft, which now seems to be the reality of implemented Brexit. Government contract farmed out to a private company, without going through due process, without undertaking due diligence despite what the minister claims. The claim is patently false, because the company has no experience in doing what it's being contracted to do, has no assets at all, and has already pushed back expected delivery date. Is there any aspect of this contract that does not smell dodgy?

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Originally Posted by Beskar

Labour wants Second Referendum (72%), except for Corbyn wanting an alternative
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...abour-can-back

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I had quite a few arguments with grizzly and other Corbyn supporters. Are they still as keen on Corbyn now that he's shown his true colours on Brexit?

It seems the Seaborne website had terms and conditions copied and pasted from a pizza delivery site, although that has now been changed. However, the login is still nothing but a linked image taking you to Google. I could do a better site than that using Notepad. And the government has awarded them a 14 million GBP contract. This is Brexit, folks. Corruption and incompetence from top down to bottom. What needs to be asked is, is it the local council or figures in Parliament who are benefiting from this? Or both?

You keep talking economy, most of your trade is outside the eurozone. Eurozone Will become more expensive, that's true, but the rest Will be cheaper. It will of course have consequences but everybody knew that or should have known that the EU wants your money and won't let you out of their grasp very easily. They need your billions

Edit, very sucking autocorrect, it is so annoying

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Originally Posted by Fragony

You keep talking economy, most of your trade is outside the eurozone. Eurozone Will become more expensive, that's true, but the rest Will be cheaper. It will of course have consequences but everybody knew that or should have known that the EU wants your money and won't let you out of their grasp very easily. They need your billions

Edit, very sucking autocorrect, it is so annoying

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Still peddling the they need us more than we need them line. The head of the ERG has said that it may take up to 50 years for the benefits of Brexit to show. The government are preparing to deploy 30k troops (scaled up from 3k), and the MoD has already sent military advisers to various ministries. Meanwhile the government hands out multi-million contracts to companies without assets, and the minister evades questions on how this is being handled. Oh, and the PM postponed the promised vote because the numbers were looking good.

No material benefits envisaged even by the leaders of Brexit. The government refuses to be accountable to Parliament. The military being deployed in Britain. This is Brexit.

This is all not as easy as I though it would be, in theory it should have been but major forces are working against it. I was wrong I guess

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Originally Posted by Fragony

This is all not as easy as I though it would be, in theory it should have been but major forces are working against it. I was wrong I guess

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Can you clarify what you mean by major forces working against it. How would it have been easy in theory? What do you think of the government thinking that it needs to deploy the military in order to effect Brexit?

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

Can you clarify what you mean by major forces working against it. How would it have been easy in theory? What do you think of the government thinking that it needs to deploy the military in order to effect Brexit?

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I have no answer, maybe you were right the whole time

There's a very serious chance this Brexit will end very badly for the United Kingdom - deal or no-deal. The fact that the PM is staring down the rabbit hole on a decisive vote shows how horrible this whole thing is to be fair.

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Originally Posted by edyzmedieval

There's a very serious chance this Brexit will end very badly for the United Kingdom - deal or no-deal. The fact that the PM is staring down the rabbit hole on a decisive vote shows how horrible this whole thing is to be fair.

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May's tactic has been to delay everything and then threaten Remainers with a binary choice between her deal or no deal. To this end, she postponed what was supposed to be a pre-Christmas vote till after Christmas, making her threat even more effective. Cross-party machinations are forcing her to go through Parliament before going no deal and having to be quick about it, so she's changed tack and is now threatening Leavers with a binary choice of either her deal or no Brexit. And her transport minister is threatening riots in the street by the far right if there is no Brexit.

Every aspect of Brexit has been irrational, free of evidence and heavy on doctrine, inconsistent to the point of hypocrisy, and just plain stupid. See the future of EU thread where Furunculus urged me to read a think tank study he'd posted, without offering me any summary or comment. When I read it and found holes within a first browse, he noted that its conclusion didn't fit my worldview, when the study itself and its methodology was immediately and obviously dodgy. I urged him to reciprocate by listening to an account by a truck driver of the realities of logistics, which he had previously dismissed without a hearing, but which is considered an expert opinion to the point where the government has formulated policy based on it. Furunculus didn't respond. Brexit is do as I say, not as I do. Brexit is a great idea, say the leaders of Brexit. As they hurriedly prepare escape routes into the EU for themselves and theirs. Do as I say, not as I do.

Ya ya ya, got some fine whine to sell us all today?

Looks like things go your way Pan's, it would be a missed chance imho but I do understand it

May had a better chance via a second referendum than through Parliament. She missed the shot badly. She got a bad hand and played it worse.

the sausage machine isn't a pretty process, granted, but i still think we'll get sausage at the end. ;)

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

the sausage machine isn't a pretty process, granted, but i still think we'll get sausage at the end. ;)

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Not all things sausage-shaped are sausages. Don't want to mistake a colon for a sausage-machine.

Decision is already made.
my point is that tonight is just another stanza in the parliamentary song and dance, this is the process.

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Originally Posted by Beskar

Not all things sausage-shaped are sausages. Don't want to mistake a colon for a sausage-machine.

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"Natural casings," Beskie, "natural casings." Certain phrasings are NOT preferred for marketing purposes.

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

Can you clarify what you mean by major forces working against it. How would it have been easy in theory? What do you think of the government thinking that it needs to deploy the military in order to effect Brexit?

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I would definitely consider reality a 'major force'

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Originally Posted by Ronin

I would definitely consider reality a 'major force'

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Liam Fox, Trade Secretary and leading Brexiter

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Originally Posted by Liam Fox

I welcome the approval of the EU-Japan economic partnership agreement yesterday, which could boost UK GDP by up to £3bn in the long run. Japan is a vocal defender of free trade and this agreement will form the basis of our new, stronger trading relationship as we leave the EU.

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Brexiters don't do reality or logic. They don't even do consistency within a single tweet.

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

...
Brexiters don't do reality or logic. They don't even do consistency within a single tweet.

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Welcome to our world. Internally inconsistent tweets are now the focus of our executive.

[vomit smiley here]

So May faces the second-biggest party defection ever (?) over the Deal, with Blair somewhat ahead in the Iraq War vote at 139 Labor defections -


(lol)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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https://www.economist.com/britain/20...for-a-drubbing

The scale of the defeat matters to more than just politics nerds (although, we admit, we are rapt). If Mrs May loses by a narrow margin—fewer than 50 votes overall, say—she might just about be able plausibly to claim that, with a few tweaks, she could get the deal through on a second attempt. The EU is unlikely to agree to any big changes. But a few warm words in the formal political declaration that accompanies the legal text of the agreement might be enough to give wavering Tory rebels a ladder to climb down, should Britain approach its planned departure day on March 29th with no deal in sight.

If, on the other hand, Mrs May loses heavily—by more than 100 votes, for the sake of argument—it is hard to see how further fiddling in Brussels could change enough minds in Parliament to get the deal through. At that point the government would have to consider stronger medicine: a general election, a second referendum or leaving with no deal at all. If she loses the vote, Mrs May must outline her plans to Parliament within three working days, by January 21st. It is looking ever more likely that Britain’s scheduled exit will be delayed. And the odds are also shortening on Britain not leaving at all.

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and subsequently survives a confidence vote falling perfectly along party lines. Lark.

https://i.imgur.com/qBbLzDr.gif

Cute gif.

May has called the other EU leaders again with the same demands as before, despite her government policy having been defeated by the largest margin in history. The other party leaders who've talked to her report the same; no change in her position. What authority does she have on this?

I've watched Parliamentary debates for the first time ever in the last 2 weeks - I never thought the UK Parliament is so entertaining!

ORDAAH!

The government has already planned for a deployment of the Army in the event of no deal. Now it's asked the Navy to help transport medicines. The Navy declined, citing the time it takes to refit ships and that it will not be ready in time for the leave date.

Increase in the navy budget, alright.

My wife is about to get £65 back from HMG. Yay!

Does anyone know what the term is when a politician lobbies a foreign government to act against their own country?