The incredible evil plot of the evil beersalesmen [Concluded]

Vote: Proletariat

One post so far, and that was a Bandwagon.

Check the replies total.

I have 6 posts, the same amount as you, Count.

Fair enough then.

Unvote: Proletariat

This is going downhill fast.

Vote: GH

he wasnt supposed to live last round. and we seriously need to lynch someone

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Originally Posted by Beefy187

Vote: GH

he wasnt supposed to live last round. and we seriously need to lynch someone

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Nice reasoning.:wall:

Ichigo is correct here, Beefy.

GH is not acting/posting unusually at all. The only unusual thing is that the mafia hasn't killed him already and he's still active 3 rounds in -- our dear founder gets "deaded" all too quickly in most games.:cheesy: This isn't conclusive, of course, but I think Sasaki was correct when he said that GH just doesn't "feel" mafia. I would not want a lynch on GH without more proof.

My choice for lurker mafia -- if I hadn't succumbed to the evil of "H" -- would be Roadkill. Shlin is voting regularly, and a mafia lurker would miss votes or vote irrelevancies -- say like RK's first round abstain and 2nd round absence -- and try not to go on record so much. Prole is usually a low-count poster. In fact, it is only when her post count rises above 2 per page (at 40 per page) that I begin to see her as having an active role. Gal actually has a life, so she's not in the Gameroom 24-7.

So what's the deal RK? You're not just skating under the radar, you're denying any and all forms of information to evaluate you. Care to comment?

if u say so
Unvote:GH Vote:Roadkill

thanks for your advice Seamus

At least, use your own reasoning.

Vote:Beefy182

Bandwagon + no own reasoning.

Unvote: Warmaster Horus
Vote: RoadKill

Half a "prodding" vote, half a "save my skin" vote.

Seamus has made the most sense here, if GH was innocent, he'dve been killed by now.

Unvote: GH
Vote: Roadkill

its not a bandwagon if i was the first one to vote

and we need to start lynching someone if we really want to win.

btw its 187 not 182

Alright then.

Unvote:prole
Vote:Roadkill

Bandwagon hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

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Originally Posted by Ichigo

Alright then.

Unvote:prole
Vote:Roadkill

Bandwagon hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

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Why not? ~;)

Vote: Roadkill

Bandwaggoning won't help anybody. It's the guaranteed way to lynch a towniee very quickly.

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Originally Posted by Omanes Alexandrapolites

Bandwaggoning won't help anybody. It's the guaranteed way to lynch a towniee very quickly.

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Then what do you think Omanes? I'de like to hear what you have to say.

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Seamus has made the most sense here, if GH was innocent, he'dve been killed by now.

Unvote: GH
Vote: Roadkill

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Uhh, I'm sorry? From what I understand, your first sentence more or less marks GH as mafia, and then you unvote him?

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Originally Posted by Warmaster Horus

Uhh, I'm sorry? From what I understand, your first sentence more or less marks GH as mafia, and then you unvote him?

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Yeah I know I thought that was weird https://i211.photobucket.com/albums/...Texas-Flag.gif

One more post till 1000 Congrats!

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Originally Posted by Proletariat

Seamus has made the most sense here, if GH was innocent, he'dve been killed by now.

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I agree with Warmaster on his comment.
However, Prole got it right. GH is one of the prime candidates for this lynch.

I too respect the advice of Seamus as he is one of our best Mafia catchers.
He uses some of the same parameters that Kommodus uses in his tools.

I think we should put GH up again together with Roadkill as candidates for this lynch.
Roadkill should be heard though. :shame:

Unvote
Vote GH

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Seamus has made the most sense here, if GH was innocent, he'dve been killed by now.

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By Prole's reasoning GH must be mafia, and so therefore he must be lynched!

Day 3 has ended, Night 4 starts

"Well well people, you finally made up your mind about who to lynch. It took some time but you'll get there eventually. Roadkill, come forward."
"He isn't here."
"What do you mean he isn't here?"
"Well he hasn't voted he's still at home."
"All, to the house of Roadkill!!!"
The angry mob marched out of the pub and onto Roadkills house, when Roadkill saw them coming he grabbed his stuff and ran out the backdoor, he jumped 12 fences and ran through multiple fields before he looked back. He never saw that no-one bothered to follow him.

Tally:
Roadkill 5 (Tran, Ichigo, GH, Prole, Beefy)
GH 2 (Shlin, WM)
Beefy 1 (Caius)
Not voting 6 (Andres, Xdeathfire, Sasaki, Omanes, CA, Khaan, Twilightblade Roadkill)

WoG bait: Xdeathfire, Twilighblade (Tran saved himself)

It's night, send your pm's, a little more participation in the thread would be nice.

Well, finally a lynch. Perhaps not the best choice, but a lynch all the same.
Now, I'd like to ask Prole why did you unvote GH after saying that he was mafia?

Sorry, about my lack of participation here, seems like summer vacation is even busier than school, but I'll try to be more active.

Also, that previous lynch seemed like a really fast bandwagon. You should at least give someone a chance to say something or to see if they were even on the forums recently before bandwagoning on him. His last post on the forums was before day 3 has started, 2 days ago so he might just be busy in real life.

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Originally Posted by Xdeathfire

His last post on the forums was before day 3 has started, 2 days ago so he might just be busy in real life.

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Indeed. A simple click on his name and the option "find more posts by Roadkill" would have revealed that.

A pity nobody took the effort to do this before he got lynched...

Sorry guys, I'm gonna be a bit sparse arond here. Mu internet got capped at Dial-up speed because I broke the Download limit (No it wasn't Pr0n, don't even say it). I may still be here, but less often.

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Originally Posted by Warmaster Horus

Now, I'd like to ask Prole why did you unvote GH after saying that he was mafia?

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I said Seamus changed my mind. What he said about GH makes more sense than accusing GH of being mafia for a deadline-voting snafu. If I was mafia, I'd be trying very hard to get him or Sasaki lynched because of how well they play this game. Do you still think GH is scum, Warmaster?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Proletariat

I said Seamus changed my mind. What he said about GH makes more sense than accusing GH of being mafia for a deadline-voting snafu. If I was mafia, I'd be trying very hard to get him or Sasaki lynched because of how well they play this game. Do you still think GH is scum, Warmaster?

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Seamus has made the most sense here, if GH was innocent, he'dve been killed by now.

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:inquisitive:

Come on guys, I got a job. I basiclly spend my whole day working at an amusment park, from 12pm - 10pm, and i usualyl come back extremely tired, but one word of advice you guys made a bad lynch, and i would be concerned about seamus, I can tell hes pushing eveyr spec of suspicion on someone else, but you guys dont need to believe me.

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Originally Posted by RoadKill

Come on guys, I got a job. I basiclly spend my whole day working at an amusment park, from 12pm - 10pm, and i usualyl come back extremely tired, but one word of advice you guys made a bad lynch, and i would be concerned about seamus, I can tell hes pushing eveyr spec of suspicion on someone else, but you guys dont need to believe me.

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Seamus was killed I believe.

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Originally Posted by Omanes Alexandrapolites

Bandwaggoning won't help anybody. It's the guaranteed way to lynch a towniee very quickly.

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So, as a mafia-hunting strategy you would prefer…

1) Waiting for the detective to find a Mafioso and then reveal same? Of course, the detective has to live long enough and avoid being discredited. We also might be waiting a good while as the detective checks each name in turn.

2) Waiting for a Mafioso to declare her or himself or make an obvious and conclusive gaffe that reveals their identity? I’ll admit it does happen. I’ll even admit it happens more frequently than blue moons…but only just.


Bad Answer. There will virtually NEVER be conclusive evidence against anyone in the early or mid-game (all the analytical tools used only work over time), so by your rationale the town would NEVER lynch and would almost certainly lose therefore – unless the detective (if any) gets lucky AND lives to tell of it.


Band-wagoning is the ONLY proven strategy for hunting mafia. People, forced to defend themselves from such wagons, provide responses that in detail and tone are distinctive. It is this detail, and inconsistencies between earlier responses and later responses, that allow us to catch Mafiosi. Without the pressure of being lynched, most folk will just toss out a few thoughts or questions – and provide little or no evidence for later analysis.

It is also necessary to narrow the field of potential mafia so that the focus of suspicion can turn up the heat on the narrowed field. If nobody gets lynched, it takes a long time to narrow this field and the mafia who have all of the advantage. As Sigurd noted, it is occasionally to the town’s advantage to slow down the lynching in the end-game – so that the mafia doesn’t get the win too quickly – but in the early game you should thin out the crowd. You don't win the breach without a forlorn hope taking the chop for the rest of you -- thus too in mafia gaming.

This will always appear to be yielding a mafia runaway in the early phases, but as most Mafiosi would confirm, the real thorny part of their plots begins around day 5….unless no lynches have occurred, in which case you are effectively giving them an extra night or two for killing – which by the way means you actually have saved NOBODY, but have guaranteed that ONLY the innocent will die with zero chance of a dead mafioso.

Example: 25 players including 3 mafia (with 2 kills) and 1 detective (with 1 search).

3 rounds with no lynches leave: 19 players including 3 mafia and more than 1 chance in 4 that the detective has died. There is a 20% chance that one Mafioso has been investigated by the detective.

3 round with lynches leave: 16 players with about a 10% chance of one dead mafia, about a 30% chance of a dead detective (assuming no reveal). The chance that a mafioso was spotted remains the same.

SASAKI IS RIGHT! Bandwagons rock! SASAKI IS RIGHT!