Host Diary
Pregame, Tim worried about flavor differences around the alien Third Party, and how it could confirm or disconfirm alignment. In fact no Town role started with any information about the Alien Werewolf, so spouting off about it in-thread D1 would be a great way for Mafia to draw a kill. Perfect Information Syndrome can have downsides!
Mafia: "How do you do fellow townies, catch any aliens about lately?"
Town: :confused:
Alien: :wacky:
So, SK Argon/BorgPicard decided right off the bat to paranoia-peek Tim N0, admittedly a risk in metagaming the playlist. I wonder if I will regret having larded up the SK with the N0 peek in order to facilitate this playthrough. (Though in the original rand, where Tim was Godfather, this peek could have singlehandedly won Mafia the game!)
More concern among Mafia about not having any cover or access to the vanilla role PM. I didn't anticipate angst over all of two sentences, but to be fair my rules at the time allowed paraphrasing flavor, such that some first-comers might be able to soft Marine by using such phrases as "return a hero" or "steely-eyed." The probability of forcing a mass claim was nil though, as there is too little VT verbiage to support more than a couple of presentations. At any rate, most players here might either overlook a soft attempt or become suspicious at a more overt appeal to flavor. And it is rather welcome, in my biased eyes, for the so-called informed minority to feel anxious over ignorance of just how little the majority knows.
In the end I updated the game rules by conforming to Zack's: "Don't reference role PMs or the wording of their flavor in the thread" and informing Mafia chat, "Here is another thing you know about Marines: Their goals are fairly simple and are represented well in the thread, as I quoted earlier here." Tangentially, I also realized that I should spell out, "Night begins when Twilight ends. Do not post in the thread overnight."
Given the level of extra explanation I had to offer Zelda about his cop role, I should have just skipped the headgames and called the Neighbors masons outright. But I really want the players to figure things out for themselves.
Winston Hughes, shortly before SOD1, PMed me 30 Rock Paper Scissors orders. In fact I had always intended the RPS tie-resolution system to be biased against people who weren't present at EOD - lack of orders defaults moves to Rock - but taking orders in advance also gives non- American time zones a better chance, should they take advantage of the opening. Ultimately my RPS tiebreaking system is RNG with a veneer of interactivity. If players properly read the rules, then they will realize that active players will rarely - or never - lose in ties, so wagons need to be calibrated more deliberately for effect.
------------------- Round 1
Epic Post #1: Rask: "I have travelled across the galaxy to vote my friends hollowkatt, but sadly Csargo randed woof."
Epic Post #2: Argon: "I think the wolves will kill you first for me claiming to have cop checked you as a Mason."
"I really don't have much to go on other than we don't need to worry about Tim. My cop check on him has shown me that he will be mechanically a no factor."
-- So Argon is wilding as SK
Epic Post #3: Zelda: "It looks like there's a wolf in csargo/rask"
For the first day, the posting rate hearkened back to the old Gameroom. I believe the slow launch may be associated with my decision to impose a full-day cap without EOD lift; this probably scared people into conserving their posts for later, with the side effect of dampening activity throughout the day. Whether or not the objective includes restraining hectic EODs (compared to frontloaded activity), there's clearly an interaction between present momentum and future expectations. If rerunning the game I might just set a standard, lifted, postcap of 100. Nevertheless, I did promise low volume, and low volume is not a problem as long as it's steady and everyone is participating (which was a difficulty D1). IMO the sweet spot for this type/size of game is ~25 posts an hour.
Epic Post #4: Argon: "It is nice being town cop so I can be certain of my reads. So I can assure everyone don't worry about Tim."
Jesus Christ, this is pretty much the entirety of Argon's output so far. He's basically breadcrumbing SK to the Mafia, especially for after his presumptive kill on Tim tonight. Big dick energy like he's got unlimited bulletproof, I guess. Maybe he hopes the Mafia will hit him N2 and out themselves pushing him D3 and he can clean up that night.
Epic Post #5: Argon: "I am town cop. Every night I get to choose a target and if they are mafia the message tells me. I trust the great messenger to tell the truth. So I get 100% certainty that my target is good or bad. That is why I am so confident. I get mechanic clearance unlike the the other town members who have to do things like meta reads or vote analysis."
Holy fucking shit. This is the serial killer, folks. Kill-seeking is one thing, but you he was already making a fantastic effort at that without insistently hardclaiming cop Day 1. On the other hand, Argon's play could be sheer genius if both the Town Detective and the Mafia Framer target him tonight - unbeknownst to the Serial Killer, when those conditions are met the Detective scans them town. On the other hand, if the real town cop gets pissed enough at Argon he might just push him, leading Argon to mistake him for Mafia and kill him. Habanero spicy, just please don't get ousted immediately.
Lack of activity in Neighbors chat makes me sad. I should have just made Detective and Technician masons and told them to work together.
Epic Post #6: Argon: "I feel like with Tim that if he survived n1 and n2 then we should be worried about them, but I don't think that will be the case."
Monty: Your role is the centerpiece of the game. Please don't hardclaim alien or third party.
Argon: Sounds like I can hardclaim cop on my N0 mafia peek. When Mafia and SK are hunting each other. In a game with a real cop.
Epic Post #7: Hollow: "probably the right thing is let [Argon] do whatever he's interested in doing and trust that he isn't going to spew you"
I just hope it works out.
I decide to lift all postcaps after D1 because (1) they probably aren't necessary, and (2) I want to observe what, if any, effect there is on volume. Also, I wonder if despite the lack of complaint the 8 PM ET EOD wasn't falling on the late side for too many players. I could change it to 7 PM.
One flaw of Twilight chat is that it's - see above - biased toward those who can be present around EOD. A better alternative might just be capped night chat, say 5 or 10 posts.
Epic Post #8: Argon: "Mainly because [Tim] is mafia."
This is the most open anti-wolfing I've ever seen in my Mafia career if Argon kills Tim tonight.
Epic Post #9: Hollow: "Something about Borg is giving me bad feels beyond the normal "this is LA doing LA things" I usually have when he posts."
Epic Post #10: Argon: "Okay then Tim your date is sealed."
Epic Post #11: Argon: "Oh yeah by the way I actually did n0 check you Tim. Just be aware of that."
Jesus Christ again, this was posted at the last second of Twilight. Argon is shaping up to be a true monster.
I wonder if Argon thinks Dolby or Panda are scum?
Round 1 Twilight is over and not a single person has mentioned or hinted at the third party. Awesome. Just as planned. :sneaky:
So at EOD1, the Mafia are doing almost as well as they could possibly be. It's a dream scenario for any team. Unfortunately for them, the SK is on Tim's trail... The game state might actually be shaping up the way I hoped it would, with Mafia overmatching Town and SK overmatching Mafia.
roflroflmao Tim wants to frame Argon/Borg N1 and forever. Now let's see how the Detective, Zelda, moves. On the other hand...
Epic Post #12: Tim (scumchat): "If we had a janitored kill I would slaughter Argon so fast his head would pop off like a helmet in a Madden game!!!"
Uhoh, Lewwyn the Technician thinks his Detective Neighbor Zelda is scum and wants to come at him. I should have just Masoned them. Well, if this isn't anxiety-driven...
Zelda has to scan Argon, I assume - right? As the Detective he must feel some compulsion to check someone repeatedly hardclaiming seer D1, someone who was his scum-partner just a few weeks ago. But surprisingly Zelda's prospects are Winston, Gnome, or El-A. Well, the next problem would be gaining Lewwyn's cooepration. Ultimately however, Zelda never got around to discussing his role with Lewwyn, and had to act on his own, scanning Winston. The result will be accurate, incidentally.
Borg kills Tim, achieves Prime Transformation. I'm excited to put this writeup together. Now, Mafia can easily recover here. Csargo and Vro did very well D1, and IMO it's difficult for Tim's flip to connect to either of them until endgame. By the same token, I have no indication that Argon has discerned the team composition. Well, N2 will tell.
------------------- Round 2
Without Tim, the Mafia haven't figured out that Argon is the SK. Very slow start to D2, but it may be for the best as I realized that for a few hours I had referred to the Infiltrator by their PR (Framer) in the N1 writeup fluff. Thankfully, most people probably didn't even see that, including Zelda (Detective) specifically.
Epic Post #13: Winston: "Not so much being interested in mechanics (that's not in my meta in any direction), as having actually read the host's posts and feeling like nobody else had."
Epic Post #14: Winston: "sk rand = the temptation of total joy"
Town has trouble coalescing around any proper scumreads, but Vroendal is getting some incidental pressure after Zelda seemingly spotted him: "What exactly makes you townlean vroe in that post? The way he scumread you for fairly good reasons or the way he compared himself to el? I think the former is a good list to sr someone, but it might be too focused on picturing you as scum, while being very articulate (in direct contrast to the second part of the post, where Vroe claimed that he couldn't analyze that early) to be a town post. Like my impression is that earl scumreads coming from town are way more chaotic than cleanly posting all reasons for a sr without a hint of doubt."
Epic Post #14: Dolby: "Here's a bone: I think that LA and [REDACTED] both have heightened SK potential"
I'm surprised Zelda and Lewwyn are so complacent, to the point of never even commenting on it, about Argon hardclaiming cop all game for the majority of his ISO.
Epic Post #15: Laurentus TRing Csargo and SRing c4, without knowing who died overnight, on the basis of Tim's reads.
Epic Post #16: El-Ahrairah: "How can you know that Tim is dead, but not C4? They were announced in the same post!"
Epic Post #17: Laurentus outing Csargo for inconsistency.
Epic Post #18: Laurentus: "I find it hard to imagine Tim tolerating such lazy scum."
Epic Post #19: Winston: "There's something in the write-ups that at least hints at the possibility that the sk benefits in some way from killing scum."
Epic Post #20: Winston: "The truth is, though, most serial killers don't high-post. It's just that if you're someone like me, who loves hunting scum but also likes being evil, there is a malevolent joy in playing an sk that cannot be found in any other role."
Epic Post #21: Laurentus: "Please tell me it's not in the flavour. I usually tend to skim that, lol."
As Day 2 ends, the leading townies have tended to be wrong about the entire thrust of their reads, except where shading Vro, Csargo, and Argon. Zelda and IK are the only ones really on the ball, for having outed Vro.
Days in this game seem very backloaded for activity, despite the dissociation of caps and EOD (EOD still falls under cap); The last 7 hours of day saw a posting rate of ~45/hour, nearly an order of magnitude higher than the rest of the day.
For N2, an impatient Lewwyn immediately invoked Iron Curtain, blocking the whole game. On second thought, maybe this role really is incentivized to act earlier rather than later, despite my nudges toward the latter. More concretely, N2 Iron Curtain may actually be of benefit to the SK, who was planning to use his two kills on Nanook and Garden Gnome. An extra day phase of deliberation preserves those LHF who kind of shield him, as well as offering an opportunity to ascertain the true Mafia. For their own part, N2 is when the Mafia began seriously considering attacking Argon - another respite for the SK, though the town PRs Zelda and Lewwyn were also top candidates for NK. Ultimately:
Epic Post #21: Mafiachat Csargo: "LA has a decent shot of being sk or detective imo, so that seems like a really good nk."
Zelda wants to soloscan his Neighbor Lewwyn tonight, seemingly ignoring that the reliability of the result would be a coin flip. Maybe the Iron Curtain tonight will offer his fresh opportunity to rethink and collaborate. It would be sad if mistrust effectively left the town cop useless ITG. Ideally the Detective needs to be proactive. To that end, one modification I could have introduced would be to inform the Detective when the partner's end of the scan isn't held up (to increase accountability). In other news, Zelda is now at Csargo-SK and Vro-scum, which is at least close to solving the game.
At this rate, Argon's killing nights (barring bullseyes N3) of N3 and N5 will decide the game (assume no overlap between Mafia and SK kills):
D3 - 13
N3 - 12
D4 - 9
N4 - 8
D5 - 7
N5 - 6
D6 - 3
If he survives to D6 against only 1 maf, he auto-wins as long as he retains a BP vest. It's quite plausible that Argon could avoid two or three NKs in a row, because the Town PRs will wind up claiming and Mafs will have to target them instead. So, in other words, Argon need only survive three more day phases, while hitting a maf with one of his 4 shots (or at least guiding one to the ouster).
Ironically, Argon's WIFOM strategy of trying to attract Mafia attention - which is counterable in the form of Mafia strongman - may be both preempted and reinforced by the Town PRs. At least I am successful in designing a game in which each faction can dramatically surprise the next.
On the other hand, it would also have been nice to see Mafia attack Argon and then be forced by exigency on future notes to carefully deliberate between finish him off (thus expending two factional kills and Godfather PR) or else hunt for townclear or PRs at night while trying to oust Argon by day.
On further consideration, I may have made it too easy for Mafia to beat the SK's two BPs; if the Detective is dead and flipped by the time Mafia have to make a choice, then giving up anti-cop abilities like Framer or Godfather really becomes costless. Yet I wouldn't like to simply remove the strongman unlock in the case of town cop being dead. Maybe I could simply boost the incentives to eliminate by day, by awarding Mafia not just one single linked day-kill but a separate daykill to each linked (voting) mafia.
This is going to be the easiest writeup of the game... Good luck avoiding reading this one!
------------------- Round 3
Out of the gate Argon indisputably confirms himself as non-vanilla, openly talking to Mafia.
I would definitely need to think more about how to incentivize cooperation between the town Neighbors without Masoning them, and how to get Technicians to deploy their RB more toward N3/4 on average. I mean, obviously, here part of the idea was that the Town PRs would quickly form an MIB tag-team and the Technician would feel committed to assisting with cop checks for a while. But there was always great mistrust and lack of communication between Lewwyn and Zelda.
Zelda confidently sharing his town scan on WH, without mentioning that it might not be reliable (though it was in this instance).
How did GG attract such universal suss?
Sorry Winston, but the claimed neighbors being the scum is one of the least plausible theories for requiring the scum to just out themselves in the wake of being blocked. Then again, if one could find Argon as SK - not yet approaching consensus - then maybe one could believe the scum are crazy or arrogant beyond human ken...
Interesting speculation about the relationship between Mafia and SK thoughl I considered the design element of just making SK invulnerable at night, but felt I could build into the extant design for a fairer and more fun experience.
If I really wanted this game to be bastard, I would have amplified the SK's Vengeful Ferocity such that it could not even be ousted with less than majority vote (ouster displaced onto 2nd- place candidate).
Epic Post #22: Several of Gnome's doomposts, such as "talk more about my upcoming demise? And my obituary? What do you plan on putting in that? Please be kind. I am inept but sweet.
The scumminess that you see dripping from me is an illusion. A mirage. My death might not bring you the happiness for which you dream.
Gnome voting a claimed Town PR, previously consensus TL, with demonstrable results in writeup, while herself being a consensus suspect, is one of those amusing developments a game can throw at you.
Surprised Mafia won't just outright push Borg as SK, then kill Winston (so no one remaining will be able to guess their factional interest in action).
Epic Post #23: Winston: "If you were sk, gg, who would you have killed n1?" Gnome: "Probably you"
:very cool:
Lewwyn evidently does not understand the conditions of Zelda's role, or maybe Zelda didn't convey them clearly. Zelda's results are not enhanced when another player targets the same target as Zelda with their own role; the other player, the collaborator, has to submit the same *scan* orders as Zelda.
I clarified the Detective role to Zelda - on the point of his Overmatched passive and the need for collaboration in scans - part of the failure of expected networking in the Neighborhood appears to fall on the cop's misunderstanding of the mechanics - and realized that I could also allow a special case in which the Detective and Serial Killer scan the same person, whether independently or (theoretically) as a network.
Mafia can win this, where Town radically mistrust each other, the SK has chosen to play self- outing, and the SK probably can't ascertain their identity to shoot in time.
5 hours before EOD3 and only the scum have not voted yet. lol Scum have really hung back from the voting this game.
Winston, the Visorslash vote was recorded because I didn't say you can't vote for someone outside the game (it wouldn't count toward any ouster though), whereas I specified in the rules that No Lim or Sleep was deprecated.
Epic Post #24: Hollow: "SK shoot Nanook plx"
Heh, Argon wanted to do just that N2. He really shouldn't shoot there if he wants to win though.
Gnome forgot about the default RPS settings for inactive players (R-R-R) and got herself tied in the tiebreaker, and lost the subsequent coin toss. Really she should have won, as the whole point of the RPS tibreaker mechanism is for the tied players to know that they can always beat inactive players, and for the rest of the players to know this as well, thus influencing their voting behavior in the first place.
I cut Twilight D3 by 10 minutes and I honestly shouldn't have. Still, it probably only preempted a couple of comments.
The SK got his reprieve N2, and it looks like the Mafia are forced into attacking within the claimed town PRs, but he nevertheless insists on holding steady on flipping the secondary wagons (Nanook and Panda). While this is great for Town, it is quite possibly game-ending for the SK, who has less ouster-cover and whose Mafia prey become more vulnerable. In fact, I predict Vroendal gets ousted tomorrow. Argon can still win if he survives D4 and D5, but his absolute last chance is N5. If he doesn't properly reconsider targets by then he just loses.
Vroendal wants to kill claimed RB Lewwyn because he expects the SK to kill claimed cop Zelda, though he would be wrong. Vro is unsure what happens if they Frame the SK, and the answer is nothing in particular, unless someone is scanning them simultaneously, in which case they scan town. Final orders were to kill Lewwyn - understandable - and frame HK - less understandable. If you think HK is SK, why frame him, shouldn't he scan red anyway? I wasn't sure if I ought to point this out to Mafia, as it would be a leg up to know this for sure.
Zelda scanned Nanook, again solo. Man, the Neighborhood was just a detriment to town in this run, huh? Maybe Zelda will fare better with active networking N4 now that Lewwyn is about to die. Anyway, Nanook scanned scum, which is hilarious alongside Nanook's death and reveal as town.
I've been forced the consider, how will the game end if Argon and mafia survive past LYLO (i.e. all townies are dead)? Since Argon can't kill N6 by standard rules (assuming he doesn't kill last mafia N5), the game should either end in draw or SK death/defeat. If Argon retains both BPs - in other words has never been attacked - then he should be strong enough to force a draw with either one or two mafia. If he has already been attacked at least once, he should die, though I kind of want to force a draw nevertheless if it's just him and 1 mafia.
------------------- Round 4
smh people still think there's a vig
Argon makes the Post of the Game: "That doesn't seem like town vigi flavor"
Re: Speculation about whether Nanook or Panda was killed by Mafia or vig, I mean, it's all under the single heading of a big monster, narratively in the scope of a single event...
Epic Post #25: Zelda: "Overall I am at Vroe>Csargo>Dolby with Winston only coming in the poe if Vroe is scum as a direct association. Borg prolly always 3p/vig here. Unless it's Csargo."
Zelda solving the game.
Epic Post #26: Winston: "i recall something in flavour about the [SK] gaining power from consuming bionic corpses could be the extra kill was gained from the tim kill?"
"The sk wants to chop town and kill scum. Scum want to chop the sk."
Epic Post #27: Winston: "dream f3 = hk/dolby/argon with both scum and sk still in play"
Epic Post #28: Hollow: "I just don't think wolf LA plays this game this way. SK LA might"
Laurentus fakeclaims SK to get info from Vroendal, but comes to the wrong conclusion (TRing him)! I'm not sure I can even reverse-engineer the reasoning, since the identity of Zelda's scan targets is in principle distinct from Zelda's methodology.
Epic Post #29: Winston: "This is an excellent game. No idea what the fuck's going on. Probably going to lose. Hugely enjoyable."
At night, Mafia remain completely unsure of what to do, so they Frame Dolby - though they believe Dolby has already been scanned - and kill Zelda (the claimed cop). Borg scans Laurentus and Zelda scans Csargo!!!! Hopefully he manages to organize a network with Laurentus just in time, because otherwise - I preflipped coins - his soloscan will produce the opposite result, which would have been reported publicly (Csargo = Town) upon Zelda's death that night.
Gosh, 3 hours from orders lock and Zelda is still solo on Csargo (i.e. deathscan: Csargo = Town). Now Csargo has changed kill order to HK however. This gives Town a last chance if Zelda/Laurentus can't get it together on Csargo. That is, it gives Town a chance to oust Csargo D5, or SK a shot at Csargo N5. If Csargo dies before D6 then Zelda's N6 can be Oracled if he dies then, which ideally would produce a more accurate result.
Vroendal changed the kill back to Zelda and it's settled. Town is fucked.
I mean, come on, Nanook scanned scum the same night he flipped town, how does that not scare you shitless about the reliability of solo scans?
------------------- Round 5
Zelda death =
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_PrZ-J7D3k
The second Post of the Game, by Csargo in scumchat: "I am 1000% sure people will be angry when this is over Monty."
Well, there is some hope for town: Borg gets ousted, vengeful-kills scum, remaining scum kills 2 townies, and the game ends with a classic F3 LYLO.
Epic Post #30: Argon: "With the lack of SK kills, I am assuming rb or maybe a holster. If it was rb, I am assuming by mafia and that means mafia knows who it is. If it is holster then they don't, and are probably going to be trying to kill them, because if flavor holds out, sk wins in a 1v1v1. If it was a sk holster, thanks it has allowed for mech clears of two townies."
Argon once again outing himself through PIS.
Epic Post #31: Winston: "This has reminded me of a fleeting thought I had a few days back, but didn't linger on at the time...
From the start, the scum knew there was a third party. It wasn't clear until n1 that the 3P was scum-hostile, iirc. But the image of the spider-eyed, toothy, wolfy thing being at the top of both sign-ups and game thread doesn't exactly suggest a neutral survivor role, to my eyes at least. It doesn't seem a major leap to think the scum were concerned about getting killed by the 3P. Indeed, it might explain why Tim didn't spam up the thread in his usual manner (which, full disclosure, I'm a little sad about because Tim in full-flow is a thing of beauty). And if they also had reason to suspect the existence of some kind of town investigative power (which is hardly unlikely even if they didn't have any inside knowledge), then Tim being something of an investigation magnet (takes one to know one) there would seem good reason for Tim's buddies to preemptively distance themselves."
This day will be legendary for the volume of Argon's fakeclaims. He's perhaps the only person who sees through Laurentus' shield on Vroendal though. IME being truthful as 3P is the best policy for placating town.
Winston's praise of my hosting becomes embarrassing as I know what's really happening.
Epic Post #32: Vroendal remembering that Mafia kills are not assigned.
Epic Post #33: Winston: "This game is now 19% of my total posts at the org, which after 11+ years and ~30 games is pretty insane."
Epic Post #34: Winston: "Given the complexity of the other power roles, and the fine balance of the whole situation, does Monty ever just plop a town tracker in this game? It's so crass and uninteresting."
Me feeling bad for giving Mafia crass and uninteresting abilities.
Epic Post #35: Laurentus: "Fuck this game. :wall: :dizzy2: :laugh4: "
Epic Post #36: Winston: "Hardest days to fake are the first and the last. Paranoia: unless you've worked the mechanics to make yourself seem clear Sanity: :tnt:"
Epic Post #37: Winston: "Csar with the wolfy pop-in. :sweatdrop: "
Winston struggled at times with the supposed clears on Vroendal and Csargo. No one really commented - not even Laurentus IIRC - that Csargo continued to SR Vroendal from D3/4 to the end without comment, which really was but stark distancing.
Epic Post #38: Winston: "You keep telling Laurentus what to do. That's not townie. You should be telling me what to do[...] The difference between us is that I have no interest in trying to convince you of anything, because I know you're a villain. You're acting as if I'm someone who might yet be won over[...] Your use of 'right?' and 'yeah?' betrays the fact that you've still got a mind to try and convince me. To be brutal about it, I dgaf what you think about the gamestate. Because I know you're a villain."
Winston put HK in something of a Catch-22 Day 5, where he demanded HK try to convince him of his towniness, while using those attempts to denounce HK's struggle against a foregone conclusion.
There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one's safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a scummy mind. HK was towny and could be spared. All he had to do was ask Winston; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be towny and would have to hang.
Epic Post #39: Exchange of quips between Winston and HK, #2024-8
Epic Post #40: Winston: "I think the other game where I hardclaimed miller might actually have been mountainous. :creep: "
Borg truly makes an irrevocable claim when he reveals his vengeful ouster passive, one of the key SK traits that the Mafia are explicitly informed of. Yet Vroendal's reaction this: "I kinda believe BP's claim, maybe, it's a weird one for sure. I don't mind voting for him by EoD personally, but I might switch to Dolby/HK if Lau switches. I think it's very doubtful BP's the SK at this point. Same with Winston. Lau is never the SK." Incredible to watch Mafia try to convince town not to oust outed SK. But then Csargo returns with wisdom in the chat, and Argon finally no-rescind hardclaims SK anyway.
Borg correctly tries to play off his vengeful to convince Town to maximize the probability of saving itself from Mafia, but his opaque twist on the truth, combined with all the other claims up to this point, creates a Boy Who Cried SK effect that works, on paper, only in Mafia's favor.
Epic Post #41: Laurentus: "Like, it's really best not even to think of LA's claims too hard, even, because I gave myself a moment of abject terror when I considered how him not seemingly realising that scum didn't have assigned roles could be a sign that points to being the SK. Actually, fuck it, I'm in abject terror mode again now."
Borg might actually be SK like he's always insisted? You don't say.
Epic Post #42: Laurentus: "The only reason I can think of for why the derp wouldn't work is if Vro just genuinely didn't get involved much with the decision to kill Lewwyn. Or if Lewwyn was killed for completely unrelated reasons, like just being the most unlynchable townie. Oh, god, that's actually plausible, innit? [...] But where is the WIFOM? We're at LYLO and you [Vroendal] have been remarkably not-paranoid."
More good tinfoil from Laur. Vroendal lolcatting as top town, along with Csargo dip & blending as locked town, are good pings to have here.
Epic Post #43: "Good news, Vro, given your town lean on Panda, I have come to the conclusion that you are definitely not the SK. :sweatdrop: "
Winston tore down Argon's former tracker claim, but doesn't account for the fact that Mafia should be less likely to slip with a fake role that doesn't account for facts contained in the Mafia role PM.
Borg finally no-rescind hardclaims SK, but doesn't make a solid case for how. More transparency with his language and night actions might help; spinning a fake or twisted story is usually a harder sell than the truth.
Epic Post #44: Argon: "I am screwed by the game state. I honestly don't see a way I can win"
Epic Post #45: Laurentus: "Remind me to buy you [Borg] a beer if this bullshit turns out to be true, lmao."
Really Argon had this game in the bag after N2, but three factors have sunk his chances now, with the latter perhaps being the most decisive:
1. Constantly revealing himself to the enemy
1.a. Revealing information that was printed about the SK in the Mafia role card.
2. Poor NK choices N3
3. Laurentus and Zelda inadvertently misclearing Csargo.
It's a shame, because he would definitely have killed Vroendal tonight, for an action-packed F4/F3 (depending on Mafia's shot, with F3 being a drawn-out instawin for SK). Csargo getting false-cleared in this instance wouldn't have mattered too much, since the opposite - Csargo being outed - would have removed him from SK's kill list regardless.
Epic Post #46: Apparently the Nanook and Panda kills were solely for their votes on Dolby??! Then the SK REALLY should have shot Laurentus N3.
Ultimately, Borg looks to be getting ousted with more townies sussing him for mafia than for SK, despite having himself hardclaimed SK. Amazing.
Epic Post #47: Dolby: "I'm more motivated to hope that the world isn't personally embarassing (LA actually SK, HK scum, I clowned myself on Vroe rather than Winston being falsecleared)"
Epic Post #48: Argon: "You know what screw it, enjoy your win mafia. Town has decided to throw so gg[...]
Vote: Dolby You treacherous dog. I killed all those people on your wagon and this is how you treat me? [...] I did it for you Dolby, also to make you my patsy, but mostly for you."
Epic Post #49: Argon: "It wasn't a town role that is part of my sk package. Also I do not see how people are ignoring Vro knowing that the mafia's kills are factional and me the supposed mafia not knowing that."
Epic Post #50: Laurentus: "waves Ye shoulda killed me"
Dolby piling onto Borg's wagon probably just doomed Town, because it reduces the odds of Vengeful Ferocity hitting Csargo or Vroendal. Without that vengeful shot on Mafia, town instaloses. Laurent's vote on Vro is a reversal that Vro may come to regret. And... then he switched back, forgetting that Maf and SK can't win together.
I don't understand the argument that the wagon has to be heavy because the SK and Mafia would work together to oust town otherwise; Mafia would love to oust SK (even without knowing they get bonuses for doing so)!
Epic Post #51: Dolby: "csar isn't literally always good since percentage wasn't revealed. but he's like 95% good"
Actually... that sounds about right. Just horrible game-ending luck for Town (and really for the SK as well).
Day ends with self-aware interactions between Argon and Vroendal that are about to prove very poetic.
So the wagon comes in with 5 votes. Borg dies, will flip SK, and will take down Vroendal (the Godfather and his top suspect) with him, poetically. Vengeful poetry! With 5 on the wagon there was a 40% chance of this (though at least mafs get a daykill out of it). I'm sure the reveal will hit quite hard.
Because this writeup will take so long, and because I don't want to be rushed, I nixed Twilight. I had always planned to have unrestricted private comms for LYLO, as a nod to my SK game (see "Inspirations"), and had in fact forgotten to apply it at the beginning of D5.
Massive writeup incoming, and yet much less than I planned. But it was taking too long. lol people gonna hate this.
Reading the SK role card again, I think I would remove the D3 restriction to Triple Prime/Doomsday, so that the SK could win as early as D3 rather than D6. For that kind of rare play it's worth it; this here was a standard playthrough and it's ending D6, because of the Technician's intervention.
Post of the Game #3: Dolby: "I think mafia lost purely because of a bad rand"
I'm so, so, sorry.
Yeah, I should have just GRATUITOUSLY specified the possibilities in Detective's PM to put them on notice.
Also, I should have restricted private comms to the Org PM system. I have once against underestimated IM systems (i.e. Discord).
https://discord.com/channels/8389691...69152931627050
To those who dislike the random elements in the design, I would say that the randomness is tempered by player action (except in the case of the N0, fair enough, but that was just to juice the playthrough and shouldn't appear schematically). In the case of Vengeful Ferocity, the risk starts being known to Mafia (and is manageable by behavior), then briefly increases in danger unknown to anyone but SK, and finally disappears. I suppose I would be fine allowing the SK to choose their target though (and clearly Borg would have chosen Vroendal if he could have, so it works out for us), with the caveat that randomness would have to be incorporated in the case of SK being unavailable in time or not selecting any target. For tiebreakers, the randomness can be eliminated by the participation of tied players. For the cop scan, I mean, the falsified deathscan (itself unframeable!) is an extremely rare event structurally, and is designed that way precisely to discourage the behavior - soloscanning - that could produce it... I could also see an argument for restricting public reporting of false outcomes to Godfather scans only, so that it's at least dependent on a specific role drawing cop's attention (as with Framing).
I definitely should have disallowed Discord tonight; smh at all the extra fruitless work I'm allowing Dolby to do.
In a New Game+ version of this setup I might try to make the Mafia PRs as unique and flashy as the SK and Town PRs (though hard to do while retaining the balance of the latter).
------------------- Round 6
Dolby resists hammering.
