Graffiti Mafia [Concluded]

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

This is true... but they might have investigated players with pro-town roles unintentionally. They come up as innocents as well do they not? What if Warluster had a pro-town role?

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The investigator(s) is/are masons as he/they wouldn't have known if someone was innocent. The masons know each other, so they wouldn't investigate a mason or they wouldn't name him as innoncent in fear him being killed. So pro-townies killed this way.

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

There is one 'aber' in this game and that is the choosing of mafiosi.
Discovery1 as Godfather chose his Mafiosi after the roles were distributed, and the likelyhood that players with a pro-town role also is a mafioso demands to be looked in to.

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That's a valid point, but I doubt it. If one of the masons is a mafia spy and all the masons know each other, wouldn't the masons be killed off by now? What's the point of using pro-town roles if the risk of losing them in the first few rounds is so great? I think Sasaki kept this possibility in mind.

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

The numbers is a rather easy encryption and most likely tells us who the masons has investigated and found innocent.

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Perhaps, but there seems to be something inconsistent about this theory.

1. We can't be sure, but past experience leads me to believe that Sasaki would not include more than one Masonic detective.

2. Sasaki is known to give detectives the results of their investigations at the same time that the results of the night's action are posted. This means that in round 1 they would have zero results to report, in round 2 they'd have one result, etc.

3. The message in the second round contained two sets of numbers, while the message in this round contained none. This seems to conflict with #1 and #2 above.

Still, we don't really know what the special abilities of the masons are, so you might still be right.

And Sigurd... a little patience, please! I've said it before: under my current method, it takes a few rounds to acquire enough data to form a good suspect list. We're only just now getting to that point. I'm at work right now and can't run an analysis, but I will when I get home.

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

Heck I'll do it for you:
Vote: Dutch_guy for lurking and naming me to be killed early - MAFIA I tell you!!!

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I always lurk, more or less, and you have been in enough mafia games to know this.

As for naming you to be killed early ? Do you even believe that yourself. you did notice that typed emoticon, didn't you ?

:balloon2:

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

There is one 'aber' in this game and that is the choosing of mafiosi.
Discovery1 as Godfather chose his Mafiosi after the roles were distributed, and the likelyhood that players with a pro-town role also is a mafioso demands to be looked in to.

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That's only the soothsayer role. The other roles were chosen from non mafia.

ugh...game complex...brain hurt...

vote: doc_bean

for not contributing anything valuable to the discussion.

Vote:Csar for same reasons as my last vote

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Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

That's only the soothsayer role. The other roles were chosen from non mafia.

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Do you mean to say that Discovery picked his henchmen before you assigned the Mason roles? but the soothsayer could be mafia? ... what about other roles? You did mention other roles.

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

Do you mean to say that Discovery picked his henchmen before you assigned the Mason roles? but the soothsayer could be mafia? ... what about other roles? You did mention other roles.

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signups closed
randomly chose disco
disco chose henchmen
randomly assigned soothsayer from all players
assigned masons+other from non-mafia

Ok, whoever orchestrated my death either has a photographic memory, or bears a grudge.

In my first ever role as mafioso, I killed someone with an osmium chain (super heavy, drowned someone in pond etc.) I can't actually remember who it was I whacked, but my recent (and unfortunate) death was with the use of osmium. Too specific a metal to be coincidental, So, 2 possibilities i have emerged with.

1) It's the person I killed many moons ago, still angry and dying for revenge (unlikely.)

2) It's someone with a consistent attention to detail, mocking me...perhaps also attempting to frame the said person that I killed so long ago.

Either way, kudos to the mafia for such an interesting and personal death :beam:

Also

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Hang the horseman
For death devours steadily
Slay him and slow
The consumption of our community

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Evidently this points to Husar (husar...hussar). I believe, had the mafia been posting this graffiti, they would not have attacked Husar twice ( I think another graffiti was aimed at him.) Anyhoo, what would the mafia have to gain by sticking to arousing suspicions of one person? Surely they would want to spread as much confusion as possible, rather than repeatedly going after only one person. I think its more likely this is a mason's post, encouraging us to kill Husar. Whether this is good enough reason to lynch him is another matter, but I honestly don't think the masons would be as obscure to keep banging on about telephone numbers. If there are any secrets hidden in these numbers, there too ruddy difficult to decipher:

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''We do not write in prose, look to the numbers. We are trying to help, and we might even have succeeded in helping an individual, but keep the discussions going !''

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Look to the numbers! Bah! If this is really a mason post (which I doubt, mafia tricksters :inquisitive: ), we are not cryptologist's on a hunt for mythical artifacts! Throw us a fricken' bone already! And if this is a mafia post, I know what your game is; get us distracted by numbers, so we are blind to your devious behavior...I'm on to you swines.

Something to think about.

Alas, it seems I shall be lynched so early in the game for an attack on Husar. Though I know the truth and all shall be revealed with time.

Vote:Husar

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Originally Posted by Ignoramus

I'm going to give my vote to Csar.

Right now my main suspects are Csar, Husar, and Caius Flaminius.

If you back further on this page, Husar ask disco if he's going to get targeted by the mafia this turn. Csar then responds with, "You already know the answer to that." Caius then says, "Seems you too."

I think that Husar and Caius Flaminius are eith both mafia or both masons. Likewise, Csar seems to be either a mason or a mafioso. As Csar seems to be the more suspicious at this point, he gets my vote.

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Tnx for the vote.But Im dead.

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Originally Posted by doc_bean

ugh...game complex...brain hurt...

vote: doc_bean

for not contributing anything valuable to the discussion.

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Amusing.

Vote: Doc_Bean

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Originally Posted by Masy

Ok, whoever orchestrated my death either has a photographic memory, or bears a grudge.

In my first ever role as mafioso, I killed someone with an osmium chain (super heavy, drowned someone in pond etc.) I can't actually remember who it was I whacked, but my recent (and unfortunate) death was with the use of osmium. Too specific a metal to be coincidental, So, 2 possibilities i have emerged with.

1) It's the person I killed many moons ago, still angry and dying for revenge (unlikely.)

2) It's someone with a consistent attention to detail, mocking me...perhaps also attempting to frame the said person that I killed so long ago.

Either way, kudos to the mafia for such an interesting and personal death :beam:

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err...
If you remember, it was your mafia buddy Disco who got nailed for the osmium. Alas he is the Godfather in this game and I think it likely that this is a 'thanks for old times buddy'.

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If you remember, it was your mafia buddy Disco who got nailed for the osmium. Alas he is the Godfather in this game and I think it likely that this is a 'thanks for old times buddy'.

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Hey, how was I to know he was doing a degree in chemistry?!?

Whatever is going on, it looks like the person who wrote the kill did a simple Wikipedia scan (as I did), cos he/she included a bunch of random snatches of scientific info. I am unsure as to why it cropped up (osmium, that is), it must have some relevance...

As it is I don't trust either of those darn messages and I am ignoring them. Better to avoid confusion and try to nail the mafia without the mason help.
Now to my vote.

Vote: Sir Moody

Something is a bit wrong in his posts. Can't exactly say what, but something just bothers me about his behaviour. Also the bad grammar in the kills. It is a very apparent frame and thus I believe it might actually be a good tool for the mafia. Why not frame yourself to appear innocent?

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Originally Posted by Masy

Hey, how was I to know he was doing a degree in chemistry?!?

Whatever is going on, it looks like the person who wrote the kill did a simple Wikipedia scan (as I did), cos he/she included a bunch of random snatches of scientific info. I am unsure as to why it cropped up (osmium, that is), it must have some relevance...

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Hehe...
*cough*IT WAS DISCO WHO WROTE THE KILL*cough*

:laugh4:

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Originally Posted by UltraWar

Vote:Csar for same reasons as my last vote

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You mean these then :

His actions are highly suspicious yet if my guess is wrong, so much for me relying on my diplomatic contacts, above and below ground

I have obviously missed a lot of highly suspicious actions...seems they weren't quite as suspicious to the rest of us so what caught your attention then ? And why did you find his actions, which were ?, so suspicious in the first place ?

Oh, and which diplomatic contacts are you referring to then ?

What do you know what the town doesn't ?

:balloon2:

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Hehe...
*cough*IT WAS DISCO WHO WROTE THE KILL*cough*

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I didn't think Disco wrote the kills, but rather he picked the mafia members and then just sat back, immune to any death of any sort?

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Originally Posted by Masy

I didn't think Disco wrote the kills, but rather he picked the mafia members and then just sat back, immune to any death of any sort?

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Come on guys.. think like a mafioso for a change...

What would you have done if you were in the position that Disco is now?
He is the Godfather.
He orders who to kill each night.
He can't be lynched.

Do you think he would risk letting his mafiosi get caught sending pm's to Sasaki?
Nah, he writes both kills every night and makes sure his mafiosi hide under the radar.. lurking somewhere in here.

That is what I would have done.

Ok guys just to give you all some updated statitistics in the lynching...

There is 20 Lynchable people left----

Therefore there is 3 Mafia Mebers left = 15% Chance of Lynching

Therefore there is 4 Pro-Townine Roles = 20% Chance of Lynching

Therefore there is 13 Townies = 65% Chance of Lynching

I will also be voting Csar for his actions. Although they may be small, seeing as no other reel suspisousness has become evident my vote must be for Csar. Unless more evidence becomes aparent...

Vote Csar

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Originally Posted by Sir Boo

Ok guys just to give you all some updated statitistics in the lynching...

There is 20 Lynchable people left----

Therefore there is 3 Mafia Mebers left = 15% Chance of Lynching

Therefore there is 4 Pro-Townine Roles = 20% Chance of Lynching

Therefore there is 13 Townies = 65% Chance of Lynching

I will also be voting Csar for his actions. Although they may be small, seeing as no other reel suspisousness has become evident my vote must be for Csar. Unless more evidence becomes aparent...

Vote Csar

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I would be so certain about that 4 Pro-Townie roles if I was you.

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

Come on guys.. think like a mafioso for a change...

What would you have done if you were in the position that Disco is now?
He is the Godfather.
He orders who to kill each night.
He can't be lynched.

Do you think he would risk letting his mafiosi get caught sending pm's to Sasaki?
Nah, he writes both kills every night and makes sure his mafiosi hide under the radar.. lurking somewhere in here.

That is what I would have done.

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I agree, however the mafia will not be completley silent. We should be looking for players who do post yet do not post very frequently and whose posts are normally impartial. For instance the mafia would want to post a small amount as to avoid "Wrath of God". However there posts would also be impartial as to draw little attension.

Although i do bellieve that at least 1 of the mafia are keeping themselves above ground... (as it would be stupid to keep them all below)

(my vote still stands)

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Come on guys.. think like a mafioso for a change...

What would you have done if you were in the position that Disco is now?
He is the Godfather.
He orders who to kill each night.
He can't be lynched.

Do you think he would risk letting his mafiosi get caught sending pm's to Sasaki?
Nah, he writes both kills every night and makes sure his mafiosi hide under the radar.. lurking somewhere in here.

That is what I would have done.

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Hey, you can't argue with logic...

Maybe your only hope is to listen to the mason's cryptic graffiti? (A pleasant thought I'm sure)

discovery1
GeneralHankerchief
Proletariat
Dutch_Guy
Jimbob
Don Corleone
Seamus Fermanagh
Xiahou
AggonyDuck
Sir Moody
Peasant Phill
Ituralde
Husar
doc_bean
Kommodus
Sir Boo
Ultrawar
Al Khalifah
Ignoramus
Divine Wind
Csar

I think you will find atleast two of your mafia in those four people if not all.

I'm going with Kommodus.

Unvote:Husar
Vote:Kommodus

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I think you will find atleast two of your mafia in those four people if not all.

I'm going with Kommodus.

Unvote:Husar
Vote:Kommodus

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You know, it's customary to give some kind of reasoning...:beam:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=192

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=265

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=194

I've never seen Csar this analytical before. Most of the time his posts are just friendly banter that don't really do much. I hope for future games' sake that he has taken a turn for the better but right now that, combined with his weird behavior when it comes to voting, makes me think that it is a poorly-executed cover-up.

Vote: Csar

Hhmm still a very confusing game. Luckely ther's a lot of discussion going on, but non that was very helpful. Some people seem to know some things and don't eventry to hide it.
Take Csar for example he repeatidly gives cryptic remarks at such a frequency that he's almost asking to be lynched. He will probably be lynched this day and he has made no action to save his skin. very strange behavior for any role. The only thing I can come up with is that he has the role of village idiot.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_Game#Optional_roles

But without other suspects:
Vote Csar

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Originally Posted by Kommodus

Perhaps, but there seems to be something inconsistent about this theory.

1. We can't be sure, but past experience leads me to believe that Sasaki would not include more than one Masonic detective.

2. Sasaki is known to give detectives the results of their investigations at the same time that the results of the night's action are posted. This means that in round 1 they would have zero results to report, in round 2 they'd have one result, etc.

3. The message in the second round contained two sets of numbers, while the message in this round contained none. This seems to conflict with #1 and #2 above.

Still, we don't really know what the special abilities of the masons are, so you might still be right.

And Sigurd... a little patience, please! I've said it before: under my current method, it takes a few rounds to acquire enough data to form a good suspect list. We're only just now getting to that point. I'm at work right now and can't run an analysis, but I will when I get home.

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Yes you might be right about the one detective in the group of masons…
Why then put two names in the message if they only had one investigation?
It could be that Peasant Phil is right; that the masons are trying to give us something to work with here the Elimination of possible Mafiosi. A hidden reveal perhaps?

It is good the first name is so darn encrypted.:wall:

We need to shift the attention to 'who to lynch…'

I am looking at Divine Wind the master of lying low, will pop up and say: “sorry but my boss is looking over my shoulder… can’t post on the org during work hours”.

If I were Godfather.. I would have picked him as the wild card. He has the perfect cover. Everyone knows he is pressed for time and will be more or less absent during a game. This is normal for him and he will not pop into the charts of Kommodus’ method. I say we lynch Devine Wind this round.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=192

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=265

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=194

I've never seen Csar this analytical before. Most of the time his posts are just friendly banter that don't really do much. I hope for future games' sake that he has taken a turn for the better but right now that, combined with his weird behavior when it comes to voting, makes me think that it is a poorly-executed cover-up.

Vote: Csar

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I assure you GH I am no threat to the town. I've just gotten smarter that's all. Playing so many games makes you a better player does it not?

I know how you play and I know how Disco plays. I picked you because of your success in other mafia games in GF2. I think it is very likely that Disco did the same.