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The Final US Election Thread
Well the election is finally upon us… errr… you… and as such this will be the final election day/night thread that Kukri has asked me to open. I’ve been following the election very closely, especially the tactics and polling, so I feel I can offer some analysis of what to expect on election night. There is also a lot of polling data collected below for those who want it (I only included the most important states). I’ve put up the polling not just for the President but also for the most competitive Senate races and the likely house results.
The first map I thought I would create is where I believe the race currently stands – both based on polling and a gut feeling. Yellow is a toss-up. After that I shall run through the various likely scenarios based on this map.
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...ssUpStates.jpg
Where I believe the race is.
Simply put, the simplest way for Obama to win this election is to win the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. This puts him at 273 Electoral Votes, needing 270 for victory.
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...amaEasyWin.jpg
Obama’s simplest route to victory – Kerry + IA + CO + NM
However, Obama is not just winning in those three states (Though he is winning all of them); he is also winning in many other states according to the polls. As such I thought it would be worth putting together a ‘best case’ scenario for the Obama campaign that shows what a map where Obama wins in an absolute landslide would be.
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...aLandslide.jpg
An Obama landslide – not likely but still imaginable.
Of course there are many, many middle ground options – such as losing Colorado while winning Virginia. Obama has a solid lead in many EVs and as such there are a lot of routes open to victory for him.
So what does McCain have to do to win? You can see a basic idea here and a more complex one here. In essence the two maps below show the likely results:
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...McCainwin1.jpg
McCain win 1
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...McCainwin2.jpg
McCain win 2
Note that in map 1 Nevada is absolutely crucial because if it flipped to Obama there would be an electoral college tie and as such Obama would win the Presidency after a vote from the Democratic House. Map 2 seems slightly more plausible because it relies on fewer things going McCain’s way – he can still afford to lose a few EVs along the way and he only has to flip 1 states while holding onto the Toss-ups (Examples might include losing Missouri or Indiana, which puts McCain on 270, just enough to scrape in).
Just a small note on the Popular Vote – I think it will be hard to determine what will happen with this. While I believe Obama will win it by 4 or 5 points it may be hard to tell what will happen on the west coast. An early call of the race (Which seems likely if Obama does in fact win both Virginia and North Carolina) may dampen turnout in California, which will probably knock off a lot of Obama’s votes.
So here is the Presidential polling data from numerous sources for several states (As of when I posted this – they will probably change on the morning of the election – I’ll do a polling update then). Intrade is an election betting site – and it has been fairly stable and has remained with the other polling sources fairly closely most of the year. If anyone wants me to look at any other state and give my view on what will happen, feel free and I’ll get right onto it. The same goes for the Senate races.
The four Senate races down the bottom are the most competitive this year and all will be interesting on election night (especially the three-way race in Minnesota where the Libertarian is polling in double digits). If the winner of the Georgia race is below 50%, which is entirely possible given that the Libertarian is in mid single digits, then it goes to a run-off later on – that race would attract millions of dollars on both sides. The Democrats are almost guaranteed to win 55 seats, with 2 Democratic-leaning Independents as well. Winning any 3 of the below will give the Democrats a filibuster-proof majority.
The House numbers are just something I tagged onto the end for anyone who is interested. Cook Political Report and CQ Politics don’t just use polling numbers; they also look at how well a politician matches their district politically. I really don’t know enough about most of the House stuff to be able to comment on it with any authority.
Important States
Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Popular Vote
Key Senate Races
Alaska
Incumbent – Stevens (R)
Challenger – Begich (D)
Note that Stevens has recently been indicted and as such he is unlikely to hold onto his seat.
Georgia
Incumbent – Chambliss (R)
Challenger – Martin (D)
Kentucky
Incumbent – McConnell (R)
Challenger – Lunsford (D)
Minnesota
Incumbent – Coleman (R)
Challenger – Franken (D), Barkley (L)
House Results
Currently 236 D – 198 R
Pollster.com
Democrats – 245
Republicans – 166
Toss Up – 24
Real Clear Politics
Democrats – 236
Republicans – 173
Toss Up – 26
CQ Politics – Very reputable
Democrats – 241
Republicans – 168
Toss Up – 26
Cook Political Report – Also reputable
Democrats – 238
Republicans – 161
Toss Up – 35
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
A couple of small towns in New Hampshire opened their polls just minutes after midnight, their time, therefore:
this thread is now Open For Business. Thank you CountArach for the OP.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Yes good op, love reading the various polls and stuff, so CA which of your potential results do you think most likely ?
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Wow, really great work there CA.
I think tonight is going to be like an Obama landslide, but not as much
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Nicely done Arach -- a balanced analysis where you've outlined all the key variables. Well done. My thoughts just after the nominations were decided was more or less a slight variant on your Obama case 1 win.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
If we keep giving CA all of this love he's going to be unlivable. Please, stop appreciating and thanking and being civil. CountArch, I hear, um, your model is off by seven points! Yeah, you heard me! You been served!
(In all seriousness, your OP is jaw-droppingly fine, and you deserve to count coup and reap kudos.)
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
So, can anyone report on the lines? My agency is getting out of work 2 hours early for voting, but from what I'm hearing I'm bringing a book and expecting to be in line for a long time.
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I think, on this day, we must all stop and pay homage to the great rock anthem of old:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SM0WIP7eMYs
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TinCow
So, can anyone report on the lines? My agency is getting out of work 2 hours early for voting, but from what I'm hearing I'm bringing a book and expecting to be in line for a long time.
I'll be heading to the polls in about an hour - mid-morning to hopefully avoid the longer lines. I'll be bringing a book, a drink and a small snack in case it goes too long - and I'm debating about a sleeping bag. :laugh4:
My wish for this election is a clean election with no major controversies. This country doesn't need another election like 2000. May the winner possess the wisdom required by these times and may he surround himself with the best people, regardless of their party affiliation. And may the severe divisiveness of the past several years turn to a mere dislike. :laugh4:
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Nice one GH :beam:
The dixville notch results are in:
Obama: 17
McCain: 10
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
I'll add my thanks to CA for a thorough and detailed opening post. Excellent work!
Things look quite extraordinary from potential turn-out point of view. Some commentators I've seen are predicting a possible 85% turn-out - with a more likely figure being 65%. This is just wonderful - people inspired to vote, willing to stand in long queues for hours to exercise their franchise.
After all my fears of voter apathy in Western democracies, it looks like the United States are going to prove me wrong again!
EDIT: According to the Beeb, Dixville Notch, New Hampshire went 15-6 to Obama. It was Hart's Location that went 17-10.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Do you have any stats about the oregon senate race?
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Well, there's one obvious reason for the high voter turnout. Free food alert:
Quote:
Free Scoop on Election Day at Ben and Jerry's
Come to participating scoop shops on November 4th from 5-8pm, and you'll get a free scoop of ice cream.
Free Doughnuts on Election Day at Krispy Kreme
Krispy Kreme will be giving out free star-shaped doughnuts with red, white, and blue sprinkles to anyone coming in with an "I Voted" sticker. "While voters may not always agree on the best candidate, voters can agree on one thing: Celebrating one of America's most coveted constitutional rights can be oh-so sweet," the company said in an announcement of the giveaway.
Free Coffee on Election Day at Starbucks
Voters who cast their ballots this Election Day could score more than a sense of civic pride. Starbucks Corp. is offering a free tall-size brewed coffee Tuesday to voters across the nation. All they need is a proof of voting or, in some cases, their own honest word.
Chick-fil-A
Go into one of their locally-owned franchises today (and perhaps tomorrow) and get a free chicken sandwich. I’m not sure just how many of their stores are planning the giveaway, but in some you show your sticker and in some you bring in one of your Presidential yard signs in exchange for a sandwich (intended to help clean up the inevitable trash left over on November 5) and in some you just show up. Check your local franchise.
[edit]More freebies.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
I'm sure someone mentioned this in the earlier thread, but apparently, every election since 1937 when the Washington Redskins won the home game before the election, the incumbent party stayed in power. If they lost, so did the incumbent.
Steelers 23 - Redskins 6. :balloon:
Just sayin'. :bounce:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Good luck today America in exercising your right to vote.
To be honest due to the media here in the UK we're really kept in the dark over the elections, I personally find the news coverage of it dumbed down and not really presenting any facts.
We've been told of an Obama win but just talking to a McCain supporter the mood seems really good in the republican camp.
The world shall be watching these results with much held breath indeed.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Banquo i thought that one went wrong in the '04 election, infact didn't most of the conicidences in elections point to a kerry win in '04 ?
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Tbil:
Yes, most of the undecideds are breaking towards McCain today, which has McCain teamers hopeful. The problem for the GOP is that McCain needs 2/3s+ among the undecideds to win enough states and must steal at least one state that's leaning Obama as of this weekend (a TALL order, though not impossible). Obama, to win, has only to hold what is already leaning towards him in the polls Or upset McCain in one mid-size state like NC or AZ.
LINE REPORT (please note, inherently anecdotal data)
Polling line was longer than I have seen it. Ever. Any election in VA or the one I voted in TX.
Compared to the line I experienced at the same time of day for the last Congressional election, I would estimate interest is AT LEAST a full order of magnitude greater. VA will set a record for total votes and total percentage of those eligible actually voting. They'll probably have to go back to 1792 to find an election that turned out a higher percentage of eligible Virginians.
More under 25 year of age types by far than I am used to seeing were in line, somewhat more persons of African descent. Both of these anecdotal points -- especially coming from VA 1st where I live -- suggest Obama will win the VA vote handily and that Warner will defeat Gilmour for the Senate slot being vacated by Warner by an even greater margin. Whittman probably retains his HoR seat -- the VA 1st is quite conservative.
This district will show wins for a McCain and Whittman for the GOP and Warner for the Dems (narrowly). But the GOP margins will, I am estimating, be much lower than in other years. Commonwealth-wide, that bodes poorly for the GOP.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LittleGrizzly
Banquo i thought that one went wrong in the '04 election, infact didn't most of the conicidences in elections point to a kerry win in '04 ?
Yes, looks like you are right. The 'Skins last home game before the 2004 election was hosting the Green Bay Packers who beat them 28-14.
That's what I get for trusting euro-journalists. They probably meant the soccer redskins. :embarassed:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
Polling line was longer than I have seen it. Ever. Any election in VA or the one I voted in TX.
Two of my co-workers voted before work, one in VA and one in DC. The DC person showed up to the polling place at 6:40am (for a 7:00am opening) and there were 100 people in front of her. However, she was finished by 7:30am. The VA person waited about 1.5 hours to vote. Washington Post is reporting lines over 3.5 hours in some places.
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I got in line at 10:30am and it took me about 50 minutes to complete the whole process. Not bad. Of 2200 people in my precinct, about 1/4 have voted (600) with only six voting machines. Here's a picture of the outside line at my polling place (fire company):
https://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h...online2008.jpg
There are actually two lines split alphabetically, though those standing in the parking lot probably aren't aware of it yet. The line inside the building was about 2/3 the length of the outside line. This was at 11:30am. A worker at the fire hall said the line this morning extended out to about where I was standing to take the picture. I don't envy those who will be voting after work. Long lines and there is a chance of showers later today.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
D'oh! Two posts in this thread and I've forgotten to thank CA for his awesome election coverage. Very well done! ~:pat: and :bow:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TinCow
So, can anyone report on the lines? My agency is getting out of work 2 hours early for voting, but from what I'm hearing I'm bringing a book and expecting to be in line for a long time.
Lines are almost entirely nonexistent at my polling place. I have never stood in a line for more than ten minutes, I live in a relatively quiet neighborhood and there's just never been a huge crush to vote on election days at any particular time. But, I went this morning before work, and out of the two machines they had to accept the ballots (we use paper/inkblot voting and then you have to feed it into an automatic accepter) broke. So, I was in line for a good hour and a half. Nothing compared to the stories you hear about 3, 5, 8 hour waits in hotly contested districts in Ohio or Florida-- but still, that was a multiplied increase and I had never, never been there when all of the little voting booths were totally full ... they were today.
I am sure, if you are used to lines at your location, they will be worse than usual. So don't wait until 6:30pm after work to vote if you live in such a district.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Great Work, CA. Nice posts so far.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Koga No Goshi
...(we use paper/inkblot voting and then you have to feed it into an automatic accepter)...
Ditto here. The voting booth in a suitcase. :laugh4: We only have one scanner though.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Regardless of whether this is a Republican or Democratic year, the way McCain has run his campaign is inexcusable.
I really hope he wins, though. Reinstatement of the assault weapons ban is going to mess me up. :sweatdrop:
BTW, good job CA. :bow:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
I waited 5 minutes to vote.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
PanzerJaeger
Regardless of whether this is a Republican or Democratic year, the way McCain has run his campaign is inexcusable.
Holy crap, what makes you say that?
I'm surprised.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Koga No Goshi
Holy crap, what makes you say that?
I'm surprised.
1. Picking Palin
2. Flip-flopping on experience
3. Not being the McCain we saw in 2000
4. Not hitting Obama on tangible things
5. Allowing his supporters to be painted as idiots who thought Obama was terrorist socialist.
6. Picking Palin
All reasons in the end I couldnt vote for the man
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gregoshi
I got in line at 10:30am and it took me about 50 minutes to complete the whole process. Not bad. Of 2200 people in my precinct, about 1/4 have voted (600) with only six voting machines. Here's a picture of the outside line at my polling place (fire company):
https://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h...online2008.jpg
There are actually two lines split alphabetically, though those standing in the parking lot probably aren't aware of it yet. The line inside the building was about 2/3 the length of the outside line. This was at 11:30am. A worker at the fire hall said the line this morning extended out to about where I was standing to take the picture. I don't envy those who will be voting after work. Long lines and there is a chance of showers later today.
This can not happen in Bulgaria :no: :no: In my country it is like there is a disease in the places where people vote. (weird way to protest against the politicians, I know)
Useless comments from Stephen Asen expected after the Election day is over... :medievalcheers:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Strike For The South
1. Picking Palin
2. Flip-flopping on experience
3. Not being the McCain we saw in 2000
4. Not hitting Obama on tangible things
5. Allowing his supporters to be painted as idiots who thought Obama was terrorist socialist.
6. Picking Palin
I'm surprised because in the election thread we went one and a half hundred pages on things like:
1. "Obama's VP pick was just as bad/worse."
2. "Obama flip flops on everything, you can't trust him."
3. "Obama pretends to be for working people but he's really going to tax them out of existence."
4. "Obama's campaign and supporters are just as personal and attack just as low below the belt."
5. What? Weren't like the last 10-15 pages of the election thread people condemning Obama as a socialist? It seems like a lot of McCain supporters really believe that, and not just the idiot ones.
6. "The media just wasn't nice to her."
I don't disagree with your objective assessment of McCain's campaign, and yes Strike I know that you are non partisan in this race (though I wouldn't say you're totally politically neutral either, but close enough compared to a diehard McCain or diehard Obama supporter), I am just surprised to see people um... "confessing it", at this late hour?
I know there have been some early detractors on the Republican side of how McCain has run is campaign. But there have equally been many posters defending it or eviscerating Obama's as just as bad or worse in every single respect right up until the final page of the election thread. So I'm in a bit of shock.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Koga No Goshi
I'm surprised because in the election thread we went one and a half hundred pages on things like:
1. "Obama's VP pick was just as bad/worse."
2. "Obama flip flops on everything, you can't trust him."
3. "Obama pretends to be for working people but he's really going to tax them out of existence."
4. "Obama's campaign and supporters are just as personal and attack just as low below the belt."
5. What? Weren't like the last 10-15 pages of the election thread people condemning Obama as a socialist? It seems like a lot of McCain supporters really believe that, and not just the idiot ones.
6. "The media just wasn't nice to her."
I don't disagree with your objective assessment of McCain's campaign, and yes Strike I know that you are non partisan in this race (though I wouldn't say you're totally politically neutral either, but close enough compared to a diehard McCain or diehard Obama supporter), I am just surprised to see people um... "confessing it", at this late hour?
I know there have been some early detractors on the Republican side of how McCain has run is campaign. But there have equally been many posters defending it or eviscerating Obama's as just as bad or worse in every single respect right up until the final page of the election thread. So I'm in a bit of shock.
1. Biden may be the ultimate politician but he certainly has a better mind than Palin and much more experience in foreign policy
2. True but McCain ran on trust and he destroyed that buy selling out for votes
3. Ummmm I would've voted for McCain 2000 but the 08 verison is a shell of the former man.
4. Not so much There really haven't been many attacks on McCain and Palin is like a Biden without the big words to cover her mess
5. He has very socialistic tendencies but painting him as Marx only turns the independents off and gives Obama ammo
6. Picking Palin
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Just gonna do a lil WOOOOOP, before my hopes can get dashed.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
OBAMA!
though i really dont have a clue, the UK has had such hype on the american elections, when it isnt even anything to do with us, its makes headlines day in and out, shows the obssession with the U.S, theres even american programs about the politics there starting, im sure non of you americans went go gordan brown when tony blair was kicked from downing street, thats if you even no who they are, the first being a fool, the latter being a liar, the UK is ran by a group of pigs and dumbasses
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AW: The Final US Election Thread
Wow! Those poll lines look long. Makes me proud to be participating in the election, though I did it with the far more convenient absentee ballot.
Sadly I didn't participate in the last two elections though I could have, feel real shame for it too.
I'll just be happy for the campaigning to be over. Way to too many months I've been hearing about these guys.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
http://news.bbc.co.uk/
haha just look here .co.uk you notice and the headline is....:laugh4:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Black Panthers are intimidating voters in Philadelphia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neGbKHyGuHU
Whoops. Someone beat me to it.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
man, they sure want him to win.....
wonder what will happen if obama doenst win....
*looks back at the race riots in the 60's*
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Crazed Rabbit, DA, Drudge has posted more stories since that one. I expect you to copy and paste in a timely manner, friends.
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First off - thanks for the kind words guys, I'm just very passionate about this election :bow:
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LittleGrizzly
Yes good op, love reading the various polls and stuff, so CA which of your potential results do you think most likely ?
My tip is that Obama will win IA, CO, NM, NV, VA, FL and OH. So it would look like this:
https://i141.photobucket.com/albums/...elyresults.jpg
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lemur
If we keep giving CA all of this love he's going to be unlivable. Please, stop appreciating and thanking and being civil. CountArch, I hear, um, your model is off by seven points! Yeah, you heard me! You been served!
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
*Faints*
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lord Winter
Do you have any stats about the oregon senate race?
Smith (R) was winning for most of the year, but the race has broken in Merkley's favour and he is now winning about 47-42. FiveThirtyEight has the race with 92% chance of Merkley winning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Crazed Rabbit
Gah, any spots for updated results?
Here at CNN.
In other news: Ten reasons to ignore exit polls
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lemur
Crazed Rabbit, DA, Drudge has posted more stories since that one. I expect you to copy and paste in a timely manner, friends.
I didn't get it from Drudge. Try to keep up.
Anyway, here's an article from an anti-NRA, anti-free market capitalism author about how Obama's coal hating will hurt the poor:
Quote:
Obama isn't cutting taxes for the poor, because they don't pay any.
Instead, he's planning to make it so expensive to generate electricity that only the rich can afford to use their appliances whenever they want.
Why? It's all in the name of Obama's True Belief in Global Warming. He says it himself -- he'll take coal off the table as an "ideological matter." Even if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, he's opposed to pursuing it.
He wants to put a huge penalty on companies that emit carbon -- which means that starting up new coal-powered electrical plants will be prohibitively expensive. In Obama's own words, "It will bankrupt them."
"Cap and trade" plans have already been tried, and they don't work -- they cost too much, and people find ways to get around them. But Obama promises us that he'll take that failed idea and be "as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else's" plan.
In other words, if it doesn't work, let's do more of it!
This is Obama the New Puritan. We've found his real religion: Political and Environmental Correctness.
CR
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
hooahguy
I'm glad at least one of our Drudge readers can do this in a timely manner, as requested.
CR, only two places carried that story earlier today, Fox and Drudge. So which is your source?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Crazed Rabbit
You don't really know who OSC is, do you? And why are you still posting slam pieces when by this time the majority of Orgahs will have already voted? The election is ending, and you're still grinding on.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
hooahguy
Of course they are prepared for civil unrest... why wouldn't they be? I don't see how that is relevant.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
nah, im not a drudge reader- i just went there b/c you sparked my interest....
:laugh4:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Lemur - I found it on a blog that linked to that election journal site.
And my description of OSC is completely accurate - from your link:
Quote:
Card identifies himself as a Democrat because he is pro-gun control/anti-National Rifle Association, highly critical of free-market capitalism, and because he believes that the Republican party in the South continues to tolerate racism. Card encapsulated his views thus:[12]
“ Maybe the Democrats will even accept the idea that sometimes the people don't want to create your utopian vision (especially when your track record is disastrous and your "utopias" keep looking like hell)... The Democratic Party ought to be standing as the bulwark of the little guy against big money and rapacious free-market capitalism, here and abroad. After all, the Republicans seem to be dominated by their own group of insane utopians—when they're not making huggy-huggy with all those leftover racists from the segregationist past.
Was it misleading? Maybe. :beam:
Anyways, Palin was cleared of ethics violations by the state personnel board:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081104/D9480AK83.html
Quote:
Report clears Palin in Alaska's Troopergate probe
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) - This time, Gov. Sarah Palin can claim vindication against allegations that she abused her power in office by firing her public safety commissioner.
Palin - running mate of Republican presidential candidate John McCain - violated no ethics laws, according to a report released by the state personnel board on the eve of Election Day. An earlier, separate investigation by the Legislature found that Palin had abused her office.
"There is no probable cause to believe that the governor, or any other state official, violated the Alaska Executive Ethics Act in connection with these matters," the personnel board's report said.
CR
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Crazed Rabbit
too bad that came out too late...
EDIT: seems as if i just contradicted myself: earlier i said i wouldnt visit these forums..... ah well....
:laugh4: :wall:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Aries777777
...the UK is ran by a group of pigs and dumbasses
You got pigs, we got elephants, otherwise little difference. ~D
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What TV stations are everyone watching? I have the choice between CNN and Faux...
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
to quote Winston Churchill:
"i like pigs. dogs look up to us, cats look down on us. pigs treat us as equals."
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CountArach
What TV stations are everyone watching? I have the choice between CNN and Faux...
dont own a tv.....
:beam:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
I'm avoiding the media until later tonight. The last thing I need to see is a bunch of talking heads and their lame "experts" bloviating on the unknowable in order to fill air time.
I say boycott the media until tonight.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
I'm with Lemur. I probably won't tune in until 8pm. I'll probably go with CNN for my election coverage.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Anyway, here's an article from an anti-NRA, anti-free market capitalism
You missed out McCain supporter, he's also a member of the global warming is a lie religion, hardly an unbiased source..
Real intellectuals are skeptical and look for evidence before they embrace an idea; global warming, like the rest of the dogmas of the extreme Left, are believed without proof, by faith alone
For the New Puritans, Global Warming is the vengeful god that must be placated. Our economy is the sacrifice to that deity. In the name of Global Warming, we must destroy our quality of life -- and, like sales tax, it will hurt the poorest people first and most.
He does seem above the partisan bickering of most... but anyway it should be obvious to anyone reading the article that he is every bit the rabid partisan attack dog, that rush or the other guy are.... onto the actual claims of the article (the bits inbetween all the attacks)
Instead, he's planning to make it so expensive to generate electricity that only the rich can afford to use their appliances whenever they want.
So is this a stated policy position, i think not, many poor britons have still managed to have electricity and we are probably infront of america in our weaning off fossil fuels, so 1 claim 1 lie so far....
• Enact a Windfall Profits Tax to Provide a $1,000 Emergency Energy Rebate to American Families
One of obama's stated positions... poor americans everywhere will have a grands worth of energy...
He says it himself -- he'll take coal off the table as an "ideological matter." Even if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, he's opposed to pursuing it.
From barackobama.com, does this guy just make stuff up off the top of his head or is there a place where mccain supporters collect all these lies... im not even going to bother with the rest of the article, the fact that someone like me can debunk the crap he wrote so easily means he really isn't worth reading..
•
Develop and Deploy Clean Coal Technology. Carbon capture and storage technologies hold
enormous potential to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as we power our economy with
domestically produced and secure energy. As a U.S. Senator, Obama has worked tirelessly to
ensure that clean coal technology becomes commercialized. An Obama administration will
provide incentives to accelerate private sector investment in commercial scale zero‐carbon coal
facilities. In order to maximize the speed with which we advance this critical technology, Barack
Obama and Joe Biden will instruct DOE to enter into public private partnerships to develop 5
“irst‐of‐a‐kind”commercial scale coal‐fired plants with carbon capture and sequestration.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
How do absentee ballots work in the USA? I don't believe that there are any electors representing voters living abroad, so do they just tally your vote in the state you were born in? Lived in last?
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Evil_Maniac From Mars
How do absentee ballots work in the USA? I don't believe that there are any electors representing voters living abroad, so do they just tally your vote in the state you were born in? Lived in last?
From the people I have talked to it is all about where you last were registered to vote.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
A useful tool I just found. This map on Pollster.com will update each time a news network calls the race for a candidate.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Voting was incredibly painless for me. Even with registering on-site, I was still done inside a half-hour. I live in a more typically suburban area, however, so I probably beat the rush.
I'm not even considering turning on the TV until later this evening. Doing so anytime before 7-8:00 would be a waste of time.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
What time should i start watching the news ?
Basically i want there to be a rough idea before i start watching... rather than time filling... time in GMT please...
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
In GMT? Midnight maybe. I know I'm staying up all night to watch the results come in.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LittleGrizzly
What time should i start watching the news ?
Basically i want there to be a rough idea before i start watching... rather than time filling... time in GMT please...
Indiana polls close in an hour and a half, and then the other states start coming in an hour or so after that.
EDIT: here you go LG:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...Key-times.html
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Evil_Maniac From Mars
How do absentee ballots work in the USA? I don't believe that there are any electors representing voters living abroad, so do they just tally your vote in the state you were born in? Lived in last?
EMFM, you get a ballot for the location where you are registered to vote, so you vote for the same national, state and local races as if you were at home and going to your polling place. That's how I voted when I was away at uni as I was registered at home, not at uni.
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Re : Re: The Final US Election Thread
Gah! Why oh why do the Americans have elections in the middle of the night? Can't they just organise them during the day like us civilised Europeans!? Now I'll have to go to bed later without knowing the result.
Oh well. I think I'll get up half an hour earlier tomorrow morning to catch up on the results over breakfast.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Crazed Rabbit
That is simply outrageous. What on earth is he thinking!?
Let's look on it from the upside. Whatever the outcome, this election has shown that it is possible for a Black man of ambition and intellect to become anything, including president.
Some Blacks may think that Obama is finally going to solve their rent problems. Or, as in the case of this man, at last make him king of the hood. On the contrary. I think our nightstick wielding brownshirt will soon discover that Obama just blew away his excuses.
Obama is not his saviour. Obama is a scathing indictimtment to him. Obama is the floodlight that lightens up that big 'I am an imbecile' sign on this punk's forehead. Some Black men make it to president. Others can't find it in themselves to get a job or go to college and would rather waste their lives intimimidating others on the streets. Fine. Obama shows, that this is a matter of personal choice and merit, not a matter of circumstance.
I think we may see a paradigm shift in race rethoric in America after today. And indeed elsewehere. Even after seemingly having gotten used to it over the last year, (If elected) a Black man as the most powerful man on the planet is an earthquake. It will send shockwaves through how we conceive of society, of America, and of race relations. Whether as a positively as a rolemodel, or negatively as an indictment, the discourse of excuses will change to one of less tolerance of excuses.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Wow, some people get started early. Normally you'd wait until an election had been ratified before demanding: Impeach Barack Obama.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lemur
Wow, some people get started early. Normally you'd wait until an election had been ratified before demanding:
Impeach Barack Obama.
wow........
*shakes head*
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Here's some fun stuff from Phildadelphia. Two men dressed in Black Panther uniforms appointed themselves as "guards" of a polling place- one of them was brandishing a nightstick.
Here's some coverage on FNC where they interview the poll watcher who called the police and had the armed man removed- his compatriot was allowed to remain.
-The first link is a cell phone video of the two men, the second is an interview with a GOP poll watcher who recounts what he saw/heard.
So... what were they thinking? :dizzy2:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Lemur's disease Xiahou. CR beat you to it.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CountArach
Lemur's disease Xiahou. CR beat you to it.
Ah, I found it. Way to stay on the breaking news CR- found out about it hours before I. :bow:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Looks like Obama's implementing his "civilian defense force" early. Looks like our American elections will be resembling African ones. Change....
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Devastatin Dave
Looks like Obama's implementing his "civilian defense force" early. Looks like our American elections will be resembling African ones. Change....
Do you have any evidence that Obama or the Obama campaign is tied to these incidents?
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Looks like Obama's implementing his "civilian defense force" early. Looks like our American elections will be resembling African ones. Change....
ohh come of it dave, Obama's looking good for the win why the hell would he do something like this ?
Edit: thanks for the times CA, 1am or 2am looks like a good time to call it a night, i would love to stay up all night and watch the elections but unfortunatly i have university tomorrow.... depending on my level of excitement i may very well stay up.... BBC starts coverage at 11.45, ill probably start watching from then...
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
I voted early about a week ago at our Student Union. Tuesday's are busy class-wise for me. Got a 3 hour econ class tonight from 5:30 to 8:30 or so, so I probably won't be watching any news until the 9:00 Stewart/Colbert mega-bash. :mellow:
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Re: Re : Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Louis VI the Fat
-- quotation on black panther intimidation thingee --
That is simply outrageous. What on earth is he thinking!?
Some days I am prouder of my country than others. Today I am quite proud. My candidate of choice (well, the one I was left with) is likely to go down in defeat. This happens to a big chunk of us yanks every 4 years. So how do we react?
The major "problems" receiving national media attention are one idiot at a Philadelphia polling place, long lines because there are so many people desirous of voting, and wet ballots not running through the optical scanners in VA or NC.
Think about that folks, and compare those "problems" to many of the elections you read about. Could it run this smoothly in Haiti? How many elections can you think of wherein a REAL decision was being made in a relatively close race where there were fewer problems?
On January 20th, many of us will compound this by watching a rather imperial president calmly watch himself shrived of authority and look on as his successor takes that power from him. He will congratulate his successor, and fade into history (for good or for ill). And then, in the weeks following, most of us who were disappointed in the results of this contest will treat tonight's winner with honor and respect and genuinely hope that his efforts yield success for us all.
There are times I am exceedingly proud of my country.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Devastatin Dave
Looks like Obama's implementing his "civilian defense force" early. Looks like our American elections will be resembling African ones. Change....
Oh my Dave, I hope your not being serious. :oops::help:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Counting has started in Kentucky. McCain is up about 60% to 38%, but very early days there (Obama can't win it realistically anyway).
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
McCain is up about 60% to 38%
On what bush had or on what the polls thought he would have ?
Is there any reasons Kentucky would be different from other states or could this be showing a late swing towards mccain ?
Edit: your my expert for the next 20 minutes until BBC coverage starts.. :wink:
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
On what bush had or on what the polls thought he would have ?
I mean he is leading 60-38.
Quote:
Is there any reasons Kentucky would be different from other states or could this be showing a late swing towards mccain ?
Nah, way too early to tell.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CountArach
Counting has started in Kentucky.
[Lemur sticks fingers in ears and yells "La la la la la I can't hear you"]
[Lemur will continue in this manner until much later in the evening]
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lemur
[Lemur sticks fingers in ears and yells "La la la la la I can't hear you"]
[Lemur will continue in this manner until much later in the evening]
Haha, fine I won't talk about the preliminary results in Indiana.
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Re: The Final US Election Thread
I voted after work this afternoon about 5 pm. I was #306 in a small rural district and only had 2 people in front of me. I didn't realize one could take their under voting age children into the booth with you to show them 'democracy in action' or I would have stopped at home and picked up junior first. We're still using old lever machines circa 1953:
https://img.photobucket.com/albums/v...otemachine.jpg
