Interactive History IV: Manstein's Woes

This is the fourth, and possibly the most ambitious of my Interactive Histories. Because of the wealth of information we have, yet not always easily accessable it might contain several odd cases of divisions and commanders. Also certain people might not behave as they did, but I will try my best. And last, the initial scene is being played out as a hypothetical case, not a historical case.
In essence, this installment is more of a game and much less of a true "What if" than the others given the complexity of the situation.

Having followed Vykka's very good, and easy to follow Alternate History I have opted to change the rules a little. I had actually wanted to do that for a long time but I didn't know what to do. Now I do.
From now on it will be played out like Vykka's thread. First three with a tiebreaker in the first. This should correct the overhasty decisions a bit as now it isn't paramount to be first.

We start out as von Manstein at the end of his counteroffensive in 1943.

Chapter 1: The Decision
22 March 1943
Sitting in the plane towards Rastenburg you can't help but feel that you should leave the front just yet. The fighting hasn't eased up, nor has the advance stopped, your men needs you. Yet you know that within a few days the mud will finally bring a complete halt to your counteroffensive... What a splendid performance. You smile at your achievements, and this time because Hitler let you have total freedom to sucker in the Russians. Yes, it is certainly something to smile about. But you still think what would happen if the rain suddenly stopped and you were all the way back in Rastenburg, well then Hoth would show his initiative again. You put the thoughts away and begin to think of the discussion ahead.

For hours you sit and deliberate the next course of action, but there is little choice really. Two options are clear for you, you opt to call them the 'Forehand Stroke' and 'Backhand Stroke'. The 'Forehand Stroke', the less attractive in your mind, involves an attack on the base of the Kursk salient, jutting into your front. The 'Backhand Stroke' on the other hand is a deliberate version of the counteroffensive now winding down, one that very much is in your favour, but obviously will be hard to convince Hitler of.

You finally enter the waitingroom in the Wolf's Lair. It seems that Hitler is holding court today. Matters of importance is obviously stuffed into a sinlge great day for the Führer. Typical of him.
Anyway, you look around the room and notice Sper sitting with his small crowd of technicians and experts at a table, clearly confident and cooly intelligent he is a most effective 'Führer Persuader' as he is being dubbed. Further in the room you notice your old comrade and opponent, Heinz Guderian. Recently given the position of General-Inspector of Armoured Troops he is now in a postion of power, one effectively at the hight of OKW and OKH.
Sitting alone at small table with some cookies you see General der Infanterie Kurt Zeitzler, the Chief of Staff to Hitler. Also known as General Fireball for his vicious temper, something that meant he was anything but timid in front of Hitler.
The last personr of interest you see is Field Marshall Keitel Chief of OKW, whatever his position you are certain that this man is close to Hitler, so close that you wonder what he is doing out here, and talking with him is Colonel-General Jodl, Chief of Staff OKW. Those two are an interestingly close pair when it comes to Hitler.

As Hitler is occupied for the moment you all have to wait and you have some more time to think up what to say and do. Quickly you realize that having an allied with you when you are to persuade Hitler would be perfect. Assaulting Hitler from two sides often had the effect of Hitler becoming disorientated and backing down, while he was most resilient to individuals. But who should you choose to persuade? And further, you haven't made up your mind about which 'Stroke' to present to Hitler. What to do?

A1: Persuade Speer. You know him, and you like him, not as a friend but as a professional. He is intelligent and on a very good footing with Hitler. Often his very presence calms the Führer. His position as Minister of Armaments is very strong. Hitler likes statistics and Speer can present them in ample amounts, you could gain a lot of advantage from that. Too bad that the man is not of the military and has little knowledge of battles, but perhaps that is a strength as Hitler has lost a lot of trust in the generals.

A2: Persuade Guderian. His new position brings him much closer to Hitler than you, he only has to report to him. He is a sort of wildcard at the Wolf's Lair now, as he will often bring the whole place into a flying battle of words. His tactical and strategic insight would be helpful, but he is not your most staunch supporter and you have several times clashed previously, in fact you sighed with relief when he was removed from his position in 41.

A3: Persuade Zeitzler. Now here we have a kindred spirit. He will, like you, talk back to the Führer if he feels like it. He has an aggressive spirit on the field so he will most certainly be in favour of your 'Forehand Stroke'. Sadly the man has a tendency to lose himself if he is met with opposition and he laso tent to push people towards a much more staunch view of their own. Expect trench warfare in the conferenceroom with Zeitzler.

A4: Persuade Keitel and Jodl. They are intimates of Hitler, they meet with him daily and both are of the Prussian tradition. So they have managed to get clear of Hitler's opposition to that cliche. The fact that there are two of might strengthen your position much more, but you also dislike both for their lack of spine in front of Hitler. Further, both are attached to OKW the staff resposible for everything but the East Front, Hitler might jump at it if he dislikes it.

B1: Try to use the 'Forehand Stroke' as your operational agenda. By choosing it you will try to force Hitler to grant you a few weeks of rest, replacements and reinforcements, especially in tanks. Then attack somewhere in early April, at the latest in late April. True the ground will be boggy but the Russians will be equally hampered and they will be weakened from the counteroffensive.

B2: Go with the 'Backhand Stroke', where you will leave a section of the front weak for the Russians to attack. It allows you to use the entire rasputitsa as a buildup and should end up with an easy maneuvered battle, the strength of the German army. The large salient in the south, created by Army Group South is very tempting.

Take into account that all four 'allies' might have a preference to operational behaviour, so think it over.

I'd go for A1 and B2. Just seem like the most reasonable choices to me.
Speer seems to be the one who is the most trustworthy and the 'backhand stroke' seems to be the better of the two IMO. ~:)

Sure did hate the whole idea of the 'forehand' plan :furious3: , so I guess I

go with the 'backhand' with Speer and Zeitzler ~;) . No way would I go with

Jodl & Keitel- they would just turn to the side Hitler had a preference for.

I kind of forgot to mention this in the first part. Hitler has last word on the operational business. Some time soon we determine how we will persuade Hitler.

So if you want you can change your votes.

I say A2 and B2... Guderian is the best of the mentioned General's and most likely to persuade Hitler. And the second plan has its chances...

Hmmm, I don't know.While Guadarian has the experience to back it, I'm not sure that Hitler would be too keen to listen to him. Guadarian I don't think was on very good terms with Hitler.

I would go Speer also. Competent, trustworthy(at least in Adolf's eyes I think) and he doesn't know much of war so he will be easily persuaded either way.

Needless to say, backhand blow is the way to go(I think.....)

I would say A4 and B2.While Keitel and Jodl are spineless they are still ambitious.They know you and if you can sell the plan to them, they can convince Hitler that its good.While they will take all the credit you can make it work.

The Recruit
As you look around the room you begin to evaluate the candidates. At once you dismiss 'Lakeitel' and Jodl, they would end up stabbing you in the back as soon as you went before Hitler. You can't forget Hitler's comment that Keitel is as loyal "as a dog". No the 'Strutting Fool' and the 'Blustering Moron' should not go with you.
You frown at Zeitzler. A hugely competent staff soldier, but not much of an operational commander. And his often brash and aggressive ways would end up antagonizing Hitler, despite his respect for the general. That belief alone has to reeling from him.
Guderian... Ahhhh.... Good old Schneller Heinz. You are certain that he would love your Backhand Stroke, and his position would make it happen. But you realize that he would have to work with Kluge to an important degree, and they absolutely hate each other. Kluge has several times mentioned duelling, he has even asked you to be his second. Not a chance there. Besides you and Heinz are not even on friendly terms, he has often critized you and given few positive comments. You know that he admires you, and you him, but this is personal. You don't want him that close, it would be far too uncomfortable. And it has been said: "Too many cooks spoils the food." Very suitable here.
Finally you reach Speer. His non-military position has great appeal to you. This way you can bombard Hitler from not only two individuals, but from two very seperate branches of society and command. You are on the other hand not so sure about his position towards you pet operation, but if he is opposed to it you can likely convince him easily. His knowledge of military matters is simply too little for him to understand what you are talking about. Ignorance makes a great ally.

You walk over to the table. Speer looks up at you, his eyes warm and friendly, then stands up and shakes your hand. "Field Marshall, it is so nice to see you. I can't believe what you have done on the Eastern Front. The numbers are simply astounding, so many tanks, so many guns, captured and destroyed. I have estimated several months worth of effort from the Soviet Union."
"Thank you Minister Speer. It is not over yet, however it is winding down as we speak. But I'm not here for trivialities or smalltalk, we need to talk seriously now."
Speer ushers away his experts and numbercrunchers and beckons for you to sit at the table. "Speak up... I fear I can't help you much in military matters, but for some reason I believe that is what you wanted to speak with me about."
You chuckle lightly. "Indeed it is. We need to deliver a serious blow to the Red Army. This years there is no room for strategic maneuvers, we should forget Moscow and the Caucasus for the time being and concentrate on removing the best the Red Army has to offer."
"Agreed, but I fail to see how. I mean, I know there is large bulge in our line around Kursk."
"Well, the bulge is tempting and since even you, no offence, know it is a good target we can be sure everybody does. We should ignore it for now, weaken our lines and appear exhausted from the counteroffensive."
"But that would just invite the Russians to attack with their strongest..." Speer then lights up in smile. "You sneaky bastard. You want to draw in the Red Army in a massive version of your counteroffensive!"
You smile and shrug your shoulders.
"I cannot but stay positive towards it. We might get a lot of important metals from the occupied territories, but if we were to detroy yet another, and much larger echelon of Soviet armour and equipment, we would have a free hand for the rest of the year. Also we could strengthen our position free of commitment, and my men could finally iron out the problems with the new Panther tank." Speer mumbles a short curse under his breath against the Panther.
"I was hoping you would agree it is a good chance, and now it is my hope that I could bring you with me when I'm to discuss this with the Führer. Your scematics, tables and general good position with him would go a long towards convincing him."
"Fine... But how. We have to have a strategy, or else Hitler will just duck evade, and talk about other matters. We can't let that happen."

So, you have recruited Speer with great success, but now the two of you have to find a strategy to overpower Hitler's legend ability to dodge othe people's opinion.

1: Lay out the plan before Hitler, and stand on the right to finish it (you know Hitler will try to interfere). Then have Speer use his influence and his persuasive talk to batter at Hitler with the strategic and statistical advantages. Then when Hitler grows irritated you step in and assumes the attack with the proof of your recent campaign as well as the moraleboost such a complicated strategy would grant the troops. A straightforward tactic that gives you good flexibility.

2: Let Speer soften Hitler up with a wish for a bluntening of the Russian armour. Then present the plan as a solution to that problem while Speer cheerfully agrees with it. Effectively the two of you leaving out Hitler of the talk. Thus undermining his own opinion. A tactic worthy of an intelligence agent.

3: Rush in and in a bouyant mood present a cheap and effective way to contain the Russians while leading up to a more general offensive later on. When Hitler begins to complain Speer will soak up his attacks with his statistical evidence and his own complaints of an active battle, particularly noting the problems of the Panther. Meanwhile you use logical arguments to force Hitler to conceede points until he finds himself in a position where he can see the greatness of the plan. A psychological persuation.

4: Remain silent while Hitler either waits or talks with Speer. Then present your plan when he calls for your reason to be here. Flow with Hitler's attacks on it, make small concessions and in general appease him enough for him to finally agree with the plan. Have Speer support you now and then to make certain that Hitler does not push his demands too far, and in the end out loud say that it is a great plan in terms of production and strategic demands. You dance like butterfly and sting like a bee.

For me 1 seems appropiate...

The toughest part of the battle by far.

Not 4, too much will be given up I can see it now.

Nor 3, isn't Hitler starting to lose it?

2, I don't know. It seems odd that Speer should want to blunt the Russian armored forces or , but maybe it's just me.

I guess one....

I believe #3 might work. Maybe Hitler wouldn't completely loose it on
Speer and you could still judge the situation somewhat, adding your
strong points if able.

2 sounds good. 4 would force too many concessions, 3 logical reasoning wouldn't really work on Hitler now, and 1 risks antagonizing Hitler.

2. If you dont ask him, how can he disagree?

Number two. :bow:

It seems there is a majority for #3, but the rules are the first three, and they have spoken, it is #1 again.

Battle before Battle
In the few minutes you have you manage to lay out the plan for Speer, and he agrees with you. When you are finished he comments that this is certainly not his style, but then again he is not used to fight with Hitler like you are. He does like though, that he can be a knowing friend for Hitler and that he doesn't have to talk strategy in military terms. Almost before he finishes his comments you are called in, and you make a little sigh of relief that you didn't opt to use a more complicated strategy.

As the two of you enter (Speer was forced to leave his personel behind as this is your audience) you see Dr. Morell scuttle across the room to a chair in a dark corner. Hitler is sitting in a padded chair at his small conversationtable, his eyes a bit dull. Due to your forceful and strong stride you cover Speer's more casual behavior and Hitler only notices him when you move towards the table, at this he jumps up with a unheard of (to you) big smile and exclaims: "Heil Speer." Speer returns both the smile and the greeting. You smack your heels together with a loud clack, the type which brings such delight to Hitler, then you nod towards him exclaiming: "Mein Führer." Finally it seems as if Hitler notices that it is you who has entered and not just some adjudant.
"Ahh, my dear von Manstein." At once he gets on with one of his interrogations. "How goes the battle? I keep hearing that we retake land every day. Do you expect a drive on Moscow?"
At the short pause you jump in.
"I'm sorry, but that is not possible now. We have used a lot of strength in this counterattack, and at the moment it is winding down due to exhaustion and the dreadful rains. I expect at least two weeks of silence."
Hitler is not impressed. "Rain, mud, snow, frost... You all complain of this, yet I managed to go through it all in the Great War. I ran through the kneedeep mud of the trenches every day. It was no hinderance to me. Yes it was certainly not pleasant, but I was a soldier, so are you."
You know that the truth is far more complicated than what Hitler will admit to, so you do not try to reason with him about it.
"However, the fact is that our armies are struck, and rather than sit around an complain that is it stuck we should use that lull to our advantage."
"Yes... yes... That is of course right."
"I have a plan for a major battle with the Russians here, one that in fact demands this lull. But I will have to demand that you listen to it in full."
Hitler is taken aback by this demand, but he quickly relaxes into the dull look again. "Sure... Just carry on."
"My plan is to recreate the conteroffensive but on a major scale." Already Hitler is discomforted, but you carry on. "The entire position of Army Group South is a salient of sorts, especially with the Soviet salient at Kursk. And as you know about 40% of their armour and about 50% of their motorized forces are concentrated there. It is a perfect position for a drive to the south along the lines of the recent attack, but this time on a far larger scale and far deeper into our rear."
Hitler shifts his seat, he is obviously very agitated already.
"Let's use this to our advantage. I propose that we leave the shoulder of the salient weak. The joint between 4th Panzer Army and 2nd Army is a perfect place for this. And if we can manage to present 4th as weak after the counteroffensive a major attack will be likely. Behind 2nd Army we will have Army Detachment Kempf, removed from the front because of 'refit', which isn't that far from the truth. We can attempt to appear to halt them by all means by throwing the Romanians and Hungarians in their way, they should soon buckle. And when the Soveit advance has reached across the Dnieper we cut their lines. Without fuel and ammunitions they will be forced to abandon their tanks and other vehicles, a rather nice loot. Meanwhil we will take around 300,000 prisoners of their best troops."

As soon as you are finished Hitler shake his head and gives a rumbling, until he finally speaks. "NO NO NO!!! Not a single meter of land! We will fight them where we stand! Have you got any idea of the strategic resources I have to manage?"
At this point Speer comes to your aid. "But Mein Führer, it will be a country for the most part already ravaged by the recent battles. There will be little lost. We have most of our resources far behind our lines."
Hitler is thrown off by this argument, clearly baffled he resumes his attack. "How do you know the Russians will attack there? And not against Leningrad for instance?"
"I can't..."
"Exactly!!!"
"But I can tell you this much. There is little to be gained from a major offensive in the north, the terrain is not good for mobile warfare and we would ample time to send reinforcements, if they did attack. Especially with Kempf at the rear, almost sitting on a major railway to the north. The north is safe."
"That is not a certain fact! And the Russians have more than enough tanks that can go through bad terrain rapidly."
Speer tries to help out once again. "But our own Panthers are on the way, and the Tiger is being built in ever higher numbers now. Both can go across terrain our earlier tanks couldn't. There is much that speaks for this. I have estimated that if the Russians uses a couple of weeks to reform their forces and strengthen the spearheads..." You quickly add "Three weeks sounds likely." "They will use what amounts to half a year worth of production of tanks and guns. While this in itself is not crippling they can't reform the remaining weakened troops in time."
You take over as Speer is moving into military matters where he is out of his league. "That's true. If they use all their production for the winter plus all their had in the salient then the loss of that will be serious. We must assume the troops that remain in the salient are those weakened in the counteroffensive. They will be low on everything as priority went to the attacking forces."
Hitler is bloodred in the face, but when he looks at the sincere face of Speer he gives out a loud sigh and slumps into his chair. "Your arguments are valid... And I would love to do it, it is safe. But I can't. Can you imagine how the Italians and not the least the Romanians and Hungarians would react to a major Soviet offensive pointed right their way? I doubt even your impressive skills could reverse that. I tell you it simply won't happen..."
You realize that the battle is lost, Hitler is set in stone about a reactive summercampaign. When he conceeds the logic he is often very sincere. Now it is time for you to give a sigh. But at least you haven't soured Hitler, and he is still open for your words.

"In that case... I have another plan..." You present your 'Forehand Stroke' which Hitler is very positive towards. In the end you stress speed, because unlike the first option this is an operation of the direst speed given the fast rate of recuperation of the Russian forces. Hitler agrees to do it fast. Then he begins to talk with Speer about the Panthers he mentioned earlier. Now you realize how dangerous that could become to your timetable. They talk about the current lack of reliability in the Panthers, and you know the time for another verbal battle has come, and this time you fear you might not get the support of Speer. You have to be careful not to get outnumbered.

1: Agree that the Panther is important, but that the lack of reliability might be serious. Try to get Hitler to exchange the tanks of the less important areas to Panthers while you get the older reliable tanks for your attack.

2: Argue totally against the inclusion of Panthers. They are too unreliable, far too long in production and untested in battle. They are dangerous to such an important operation.

3: Accept that they have to be used, but steer Hitler towards sending them to the front right away, not hoarding them, so that they can get their systems worked out and be tested in battle prior to the big fight.

Damn. That's terrible.....

Hmmm, I guess three. Hitler was a huge fan of the Panther, so I guess nothing will disswade him from using them. Just get them out NOW, since they weren't to great in reality and if there are only a few they ca't impact the outcome of the battle can they.

2 won't work, and Hitler will resent the suggestion.

1 wouldn't be so bad if you could test the ones in less important areas. But the Panther was a good tank, armor-wise and gun-wise. It just had problems (at least at first) with reliability. To my knowledge, so did a lot of the German tanks. So instead of 1, go for:

3

and pray that those Panthers get fixed quick.

I like these threads.

Who cares if they work? Just make sure there are too few to influence the outcome of the battle.

Hitler loved his toys, so 2 is totally out of the question.

Choosing between 1 and 3 is difficult.

Ive got to go with 1 though. The Pz.IV and Tiger crews were amazing at that time, and the disadvantages of the former were completely made up for by the skills of their crews.

Let Hitler play in an unimportant theater, and they'll be perfected in time for the next one.

That sounds more like option #1. I think the ideal solution would be a hybrid of 1 & 3.

i would say number three. :bow:

The Flight of the Big Cat
As Speer talks about the Panther you can see how Hitler is impressed and almost like a little boy when he finds a new toy. He tried to rush past the trouble of the reliability of the Panther, but you jump at it.
"Mein Führer, the Panther is obviously going to be a superb tank in battle, and I woul lov to have it with me when we attack." You turn to Speer. "I urge you Minister Speer, to get as many as possible out on the front at once."
Hitler looks back and forth between the two of you, clearly filled with joy, but before he can say anything you do what must be done. "I want all the tanks you have at the moment, right now! The problems of the tanks going up in flames for no apparent reason is debilitating, I want that ironed out as soon as possible. And we all know that the best way to test a tank is on the battlefield. Send a lot of technicians as well." Now Hitler is less joyful.
"Wait a second Herr Field Marshall." Ow, when he uses titles it can't be good. "The Panther should stay in stock where the technicians can work on it, and it will remain a secret. It is important that we do not let this advantage slip."
"If we had time I would agree, but since time is of the essence we must send it out right away. The quirks and problems arise much faster at the front and can thus much easier be corrected, besides the time will not allow the Russians to react to the Panther, now will they need to as there won't be that many."
"Hmmm... I'm not happy about such a case. Remember what happened with the Tiger when my generals wanted it fast at the front?" You remember clearly what happened to it, though the general had a very small part in it.
"Yes, I remember. But this is an entirely new case. The Tiger was meant to be a rude shock, the Panther is meant to be a main battle tank, hiding it won't help much really."
"Very well, I can accept that, but you better not squander them."
Right then Speer joins in. "But we haven't produced more than some 20 operational tanks, what are they worth? Such a low number would be problematic for the logistics." Hitler of course favours Speer. "I hadn't thought of that, yes hold them back."
"No... The minor problem with the logistics will be overcome, we are already having several other trial units. What about von Richthofens' cannon Stukas? There are what, 6 of them? Have the Luftwaffe complained about that? In any case, we have to do this. I can't imagine the trouble if we lost some 100 tanks because of reliability in a major battle. This way we risk less, we are already far behind in tank numbers, we can't afford to have all the important tanks break down."
Speer nods, seeing your argument. And with his agreement Hitler is once again put in a tough spot, he has no more rational points to make. For another couple of minutes you fight Hitler over the issue, going through the entire range of mental states, you rage, argue, begs, urge, demands and even threaten to resign. In the end you are exhausted, but Hitler is even more so. He waves you off with a short comment. "Fine, have it your way!"

On the way out again you get a promiss from Speer that he will send the tanks and technicians to the front right away. And you make a point in creating the 1st Panther Experimental Battalion and assigning it to SS Panzer Das Reich.

Now that you have more or less free hands, you begin to wonder where you will find the reinforcements for your troops. You are aiming for an attack in early April, but the bad weather and mud might postpone that, you have to be prepared.

What are you going to do?

1: Deplete your own right flank down by the Sea of Azov. You already did that when you reinforced your troops forthe counteroffensive. It has since been brought up to strength more or less again. Of course it wouldn't be enough, and you think of taking armour from the north.

2: Demand armour from the west. Right now there are a number of Tigers lingering in Italy for no purpose really, problem is that Hitler is very 'protective' of Italy, and he might countermand your order so you will end up with a limited number of tanks from France and the Balkans.

3: Shuffle your own troops around concentrating them yourself, and have Model do the same in the north of the salient. At the same time you will place an ultimate demand on reinforcements and replacements from Germany. Effectively you won't deplete any area but then again they won't get up to strength at all.

4: Try to do it all. You won't be able to fight anybody over it for any length of time or with any strength, but if you succeed you will gain a most powerful force in a very short time. Also while you might fail in a few departments you might still get more out of it.

number 4.You need every trick in the book to make this happen.

Number 4...as Kagemusha said we need every trick in the book.. ~:)

The problem here is that by depleting your flanks to assault the Kursk salient, you're tipping off Soviet intelligence to the fact that you're going launch an attack on the Kursk salient. Thus, the Soviets can react accordingly, either by heavily defending the Kursk salient, as they did in real life, or by attacking elsewhere, like at Kharkov for example.

What needs to be done here is to seize the intiative and to seize it with all possible speed, hit the Soviets when they least expect it, where they least expect it. Unfortunately, because an assault on the Kursk salient is the only real option (Hitler was right about the Italians, Romanian and Hungarians collapsing), either a ruse must be employed to draw the Russians out of the Kursk salient, or a strike must be made at all possible speed with the greatest concentration of firepower possible.

And btw, don't rely on Model, he's nothing but an idiot, in fact, deplete him to put emphasis on the southern part of the pincer.

Drain the west. Huskey be damned. This is where the war will be won, and draining other areas of the east will tip off the reds like DA said.

Although if you think you can keep the withdraw of troops from else where in the east a secret, or do it faster than the reds can reinforce the salient, then draw them from everywhere.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DemonArchangel

The problem here is that by depleting your flanks to assault the Kursk salient, you're tipping off Soviet intelligence to the fact that you're going launch an attack on the Kursk salient. Thus, the Soviets can react accordingly, either by heavily defending the Kursk salient, as they did in real life, or by attacking elsewhere, like at Kharkov for example.

What needs to be done here is to seize the intiative and to seize it with all possible speed, hit the Soviets when they least expect it, where they least expect it. Unfortunately, because an assault on the Kursk salient is the only real option (Hitler was right about the Italians, Romanian and Hungarians collapsing), either a ruse must be employed to draw the Russians out of the Kursk salient, or a strike must be made at all possible speed with the greatest concentration of firepower possible.

And btw, don't rely on Model, he's nothing but an idiot, in fact, deplete him to put emphasis on the southern part of the pincer.

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Whoa ~:eek: Model was no idiot! What do you base that statement on?

2. At this point it would be best to take all armored forces out of the West. The allies are focusing all their attention on Italy where armored forces are not important to hold them.

Quote:

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Whoa Model was no idiot! What do you base that statement on?

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That was quite an interesting statement indeed. Id like to hear his basis for it aswell. ~:confused:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PanzerJager

2. At this point it would be best to take all armored forces out of the West. The allies are focusing all their attention on Italy where armored forces are not important to hold them.

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Who knows? They can also attack Southern France or Greece.

Kraxis,

this is a brilliant story. Hope you will not change history and make Hitler win the war. ~;)

As far as I see it Manstein has another option. If he is a great man and soldier. He should invite Hitler to visit the troops before the operation starts. And bring Himmler too. Just to encourage the soldiers. Then arrest them and kill them.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Franconicus

Kraxis,

this is a brilliant story. Hope you will not change history and make Hitler win the war. ~;)

As far as I see it Manstein has another option. If he is a great man and soldier. He should invite Hitler to visit the troops before the operation starts. And bring Himmler too. Just to encourage the soldiers. Then arrest them and kill them.

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Oww... nice idea. But we should do it after the dust settles in Kursk and the Red army collapsed, as to prevent the Soviets taking advantage of a changing regime in the Eastern Front. Please gives us the choice, Kraxis! ~D

For now...well...take the armours from the West - those tanks aren't that useful in Italy, or Greece, for that matter. The possibility of the allies landing in Southern France is to be taken as a necessary risk.

Sorry guys, you have argued for your various positions, but in the end teh rule of the first three ended up with #4, a total workout.

And about Hitler. If I ever did that it would have been a foregone conclusion, not a great possibility for different point of views. Later other stuff might happen, but Manstein is a soldier and a soldier follows his commander.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kraxis

And about Hitler. If I ever did that it would have been a foregone conclusion, not a great possibility for different point of views. Later other stuff might happen, but Manstein is a soldier and a soldier follows his commander.

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Foregone conclusion? Is Manstein really holds that much popularity among the troops compare to Hitler? (Or is it the other way around, that Manstein will never succeed?)

Anyway, I understand your point that he won't do that anyway and this "Interactive History" won't be fun without the ultimate obstacle in the game providing the challenge (i.e. his own leader, Hitler ~;) )

A full Job
Eventhough you are drawn towards the front again, you deside to do some work at Rastenburg. You need a major influx of men and armour to make this campaign work, at the moment you have some 400 tanks in all at the salient. A strong force, but you lack heavy tanks to lead the assaults and most of your tanks are not in working order. More problematic is the severe lack of panzergrenadiers in the panzer divisions. You need to find reinforcements and the collective of generals and staffers here at Rastenburg are the best men to get at.

The remaining day you go about talking to the right men about recieving priority of men and equipment for replacements, and to your surprise they are rather positive towards you, no need for beaurocratic haggling. Somehow Hitler's carte blanche has spread like a wildfire.
The next day you get in contact with Model of 9th Army and give him the news of replacements, and give him the order of preparing for battle. He is of course a little perplexed that the orders come from you rather than his own superior von Kluge. You quickly tell him that there is no time for lengthy commandlines, then hang up. You know this might get problematic when von Kluge finds out, but you haven't got time and you are sure he will understand, he is afterall on of your few friends.
You then set off into the room of the OKW where Jodl and Keitel at the moment lingers. Your mood high you rush in and make your demand of the western tanks, expecting them to comply in a timely fashion. Instead both of them stare blankly at you, then Keitel speaks up in that haughty fashion he likes to use with subordinates.
"You can make no demands of the OKW, young man. We are seperate of the OKH."
Surprised you can only stutter out: "But... But we are all in this together. We need those tanks!"
Jodl chimes in, sensing an easy victory. "Yes, sure you do, but so do we. Do you think the Amis and Tommies will just lay back? They are at the moment finishing the Afrika Korps, where do you think they will head off to next? England? Hardly."
"You fools!!! You know very well that they can't attack right away and we need those tanks in the east NOW! You can get them back later."
The only answer you get is the stony expressions and a short crisp "not a chance" from Keitel. And he is right, at least for the moment. You shake your head and mumbles a short curse under your breath as you exit again.

The time is up and the car is waiting, but before you go you manage to leave a message for Hitler, asking him to get the OKW to comply, if not entirely then at least with the Tigers, or other potent tanks.
The next morning you are back at your HQ, a pile of papers awaits you. I'm a warrior not a pencilpusher, but I'm more likely to die from a papercut. Pushing them aside you get into contact with Hollidt, charged with your sourthern defenses. Once again you order him to give up his most potent forces, but he is reluctant.
"But Herr Field Marshall we can't hold our lines if we do give up the mobile forces, they are what keep my lines glued together. Without them we won't be able to do much in the case of a Russian attack."
"The whole point is for Hoth to draw away all the attention and forces. Besides the Russians opposing you are not really strong in their own right, and you know that they do not attack unless they feel strong."
"I can't give them all up, I need to have something to keep my troops in contact with each other."
You know he is right and you can't afford more time to be wasted here, so you concede him his wishes. It is turning out to be a serious problem with the tanks and men, but at least you have gotten news of the first reinforcements arriving. The speed of them arriving is increadible, the staffers at Rastenburg have really worked wonders. And the 1st Panther Experimental Battalion is on its way, complete with an entire battalion of SS mechanized infantry as tagalongs from Himmler. You wonder where he has been able to get those men so fast, and the result that you end up with is certainly not something you like, but everything counts, and you begin to lay out the plans for the attack and the rearrangement of your own forces.

After a few days of working furiously you collapse from exhaustion. For the better part of a day you are completely out of touch with the HQ. And when you return you learn that Hitler has turned down your request to the Tigers in Italy, and basically everything else. But at least he has allowed you to siphon in the men going to Italian based units. This is far less than you had hoped, or even expected, and you can easily imagine the smug grins on Keitel and Jodl's faces.
But progress has been good, armoured units are rapidly converging on your frontlines, as well as those of Model's. But the cost has been significant, von Kluge had felt insulted that you had gone over his head in the matter, and in the end you used more time calming him down and explaining him the plans, than what you would have used at the outset. And from now on he is not going to be as forthcoming as previously.
The Panthers arrived only two days ago, and have already been in action a few times, very minor of course. The men has given the unit the dual name of Flammkatzen, Flaming Cats, as a tribute to their significant abilities as well as their horrible tendecies to burst into flames. The technicians have had little luck in correcting this.

You are worried because of your little mishap earlier, but you think you can carry it through for the moment, though the doctors urge you to relax a bit. You begin to wonder where to put your Schwerpunkt, Point of Concentration. You have a couple of options, as you could let 4th Panzer Army lead the attack at the bottom of a salient just north of Belgorod going northeast, or transfer the armour to Army Detachment Kempf to lead the attack across the Donets to the east swinging north. The last option is also 4th Panzer Army, but a bit further west gunning straight for Oboyan.

A1: Center your strongest armour for an attack northeast of Belgorod, following the Donets' flow. This area is perhaps less perfect for armour, with many small hills and small groves and villages, but the flank is easily protected by the river.

A2: Toughen up Kempf's troops for an attack across the Donets then north between Korocha and the Donets eastern bank. Problematic to say the least, as a major river will need to be crossed by massed armour. But the area is by far the weakest guarded, though several Guards units are nearby.

A3: Go directly north towards Oboyan with 4th Panzer Army. After some hilly terrain it flattens out into nice open fields of crops, so it is a very good terrain for armour. Sadly this is estimated to be the home of 32nd Guards Rifle Corps with plenty of mechanized troops around. Also since you strike further out the cut won't be as debilitating in case of victory.

B1: Slow down a bit, but still put a strong effort into pushing the little pieces around on your map. Those troops are needed soon.

B2: Slow down even more, basically let the troops get into position as they are set now. Then later nitpick them into their right positions. At this pace you will most likely get a lot of talking with Hoth and Kempf.

B3: Go on right away. The collapse was because of too little sleep, so obviously you will take care of that, but you can rest when this is all over.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AntiochusIII

Foregone conclusion? Is Manstein really holds that much popularity among the troops compare to Hitler? (Or is it the other way around, that Manstein will never succeed?)

Anyway, I understand your point that he won't do that anyway and this "Interactive History" won't be fun without the ultimate obstacle in the game providing the challenge (i.e. his own leader, Hitler ~;) )

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No I meant that it was a foregone conclusion among you guys. In every case such an option would be bad. If I make it a good choice, then it would be too easy, if I make it bad then the 'game' is basically over as this is a most serious action (civil war, disobedient troops ect ect), and finally if I make it a 'so-so' result it doesn't give the situation the credit it would need. In all aspects it is simply too big. I don't dare do it really.
Also, Manstein didn't go about with these kind of plans at the time (if at all). While this is fiction it has to have some rational anchoring in history.

B1, and......


I don't know. Hmmm, alot can go wrong in a river crossing, and if it's too slow then those guards will get in place and make it impossible.

A3 seems more certain. While it will result in more german blood being spilled, if you hit fast enough you should be able to pull through, hopefully.

A1, well the terrian is apparently poor, but we don't know anything about the forces facing use there. Maybe they are fairly weak. And the river keeps us safe, sort of.

I say A2, and pray that it can be done fast enough for the guards to not interfere.

A1 and B1. Basically you need the some rest, but not too much.
Also A1 due to the fact that crossing a river might take a long while and not really be simplest of things and because somehow I prefer A1 over A3.. ~:)

Actually I've changed my mind, A2 is the last thing that I want. So I'm forced to take A3 in order to avoid it. So I pick A3 and B1.

A3: - Let your best forces, the panzers, destroy their strongest forces. The russians will not hold if they see their best troops running away. The panzers are your best hope for making this victory meaningful and crushing - but they need the correct terrain to achieve that objective.

B3: - A german general in the prussian tradition does not let his own health stand in the way of a critical battle. There will be plenty of time to rest when the initiative is retaken in the east. However, there will be no time to rest if he is forced to fight a continuous string of defensive battles.

Im with Panzer on this one.A3 And B3. :bow:

Hehehe... Nice reversal there Duck. ~;) Now I have been working on a rivercrossing and find this. Into the can with it. That will teach me to give you guys too many liberties, and time! ~:cheers:

Anyway, back to work.

Reports reports reports
When you finally let him in the doctor gives you a written note, the poor man had been shot through the throat back in early Barbarossa by a sniper. The turbo-handwriting is far from beautiful but it is easily read and fast written. Serious risk of stroke at present level of stress. You take a look at yourself, and take a moment to feel how you are. It is clear to you, you must scale back your work or suffer the consequences. Due to this you take the easy option for the operational attack. The attack towards Oboyan along the highway from Butovo. It is far easier to manage at the moment and it will present you with much easier tactical considerations when the attack is finally carried out, at which time you are physically capable of actually being there all the time. Unfortunately you won't have the resources to have Kempf support Hoth with anything but holdingattacks.
You are also a little concerned of the serious digging in being done by the 6th Gurds Army and the 1st Tank Army covering your attackroute. Further this is the area that Das Reich has been operating in, meaning that the Russians are well aware of the Panthers. Well, it is not likely to matter much as your are concentrating your best forces here, including three SS Panzer Divisions, the Das Reich, the Totenkopf and the Leibstandarte Adolf Hitler.

For another week you oversee the preperations, and follow deeply the progress of the 1st Experimental Panther Battalion. The tanks themselves are doing very well on the field, but they need constant care and are actaully escorted onto the field by recoveryvehicles following right behind the grenadiers. Your feeling of the new SS troops has been reinforced by their extreme violence, taking no prisoners below the rank of captain, and their lax discipline, they are however aggressive, determined and superb shots. You are just happy that you don't have an entire division of them. The battalion has by now increased to 43 tanks, of which on average 20 are in the shop.

The 503rd Heavy Tank Battalion has also reached your lines, bringing with it 41 Tigers from the north. Since it is an independant unit it is under your direct leadership, so at some point you will have to decide where to use them.
Hitler has become more and more invasive, demanding you to wait for more Panthers before you attack. He argues that the Russian defensive works will need a sledgehammer to break through. He has also removed the commander of Luftflotte 4, von Richthofen, a most capable commander of the attacks soon required of the Luftflotte. For now it is doing a lot of interdiction against teh railways and roads, trying to cut the lines of supply.

You feel a little undecided, a lot of things need your attention, your limited attention.

1) Fight Hitler vehemently over the Panther issue. Your belief that speed is of the essence is opposed by Hitlers insitance on more Panthers. Trouble is just that he might close up entirely if attacked too hard, besides this is not your usual style.

2) Demand the return of von Richthofen, he is important to your plans, and he is well versed in the capabilities of the new cannon-Stuka. This way you put off the confrontation with Hitler over the issue of the Panthers.

3) Continue to oversee the reinforcements in detail, making sure your have the correct weight at the attacklines. It is likely you can up the number of Panthers reaching the front.

4) Begin to tour the front, both to inspect the troops and their capabilties, but also to inspire them and put the SS troops in their place. Of course Hoth will be accompanying you. With the knowledge of the troops at hand you can more easily argue with Hitler.

A combination of 2 and 4 would be nice.... Otherwise just 2. You have to take care of your good men.

Sorry, about the sudden reverse, didn't actually mean to cause you more trouble. :embarassed: Anyways I'll sit back from this decision... ~:)

Right now, Hitler, not the Russians, is my biggest opponent. Now, arguing with him won't solve anything.

Yes, Hitler should be allowed to ship more Panthers to the front. In fact, right now is a very good opportunity to use a sword and shield dynamic defense tactic, because the Russians can be lured out of the Kursk salient in force in order to attack the German military, only to be broken on the new Panthers and Tigers lying in wait for them. So you now have the backhand stroke that you wanted, thanks to the obstinance of Hitler.

So 3) has to be my choice.

The Russians won't attack. They are comitted to a defensive battle now that they know an attack will come. Pretty much as what happened in the real case. The Russians never attacked in the entire and very long buildup to Zitadelle.

I say 3. Bickering with Hitler or visiting the front isn't nearly as important as overseing deployment of troops...

DON"T DO THREE!!! By the time more panthers arrive, the Russians will be so strong it doesn't matter. Just like in real life.....

2 is the way to go. Just start the offensive asap, don't wait around for unreliabe panthers that won't help.

number 4.Little things can be decisive ones in war.If you dont know details you are living in a scenario,not in real life. :bow:Number three is going to ruin us. ~:mecry:

Do number 2 first, then goes on with number 4. You need von Richthofen to crush the Russian. 3 is what happened historically, and there the Germans are defeated. After you sent your demand go on inspecting the troops and gather as much information and raise morale as possible as every bit would counts in the upcoming clash.

If you refuse to allow the combination, however, goes on with number 2 only.

Damn, missed it again.. freaking sleep. :furious3:

I'm gonna say 4. A little more knowledge about the battlefield will provide insight as to which executive decisions should be made. "Knowing is half the battle", they say.

Sorry guys I haven't updated the thread... But I have been stressed by university and the fact that a real close friend's mother died last week, so I have been preoccupied with him as well, and with my own grief.

But I'll get right at it now. ~:)

Nothing to be sorry about Kraxis.Interactive history is nothing in comparison to interactive real life.My condolences. :bow:

The Clock is ticking
When you heard that Hitler transferred his 'pet' von Richthofen you went out of your mind. What is going on with Hitler?! That fool is making this more and more impossible for me... You imedieately sent a note, outlining the wish for Richthofen to return, to Berchtesgaden, where the Führer had retreated to shortly after your visit. But you have no illusions, that if Hitler himself has wanted this transfer, and it is not just some fool that had lobbied him in your absence (your thoughts at once fly towards Jodl and Keitel, even now they are making your preperations a hell), then there is no chance the note will make him change his mind. You settle in to the fact that von Richthofen is lost to you, when you might get the time you could try to get him back, but by then the 'opening' might be lost. You sigh... This is not easy.

In the end you just get back at overseeing the preperations, continually harried by Hitler and other high roller's demands for more tanks. It is getting highly annoying.
It is now the 6th of April, and you are worried by the Russian buildup and digging in. Air recon has determined that the Guard and the Tank armies facing you are rapidly getting up to strength, obviously getting priority consideration. This worries you as at the moment none of your divisions are at full strength, especially low are the panzergrenadiers.
That has to be addressed and you jump back at the logistical nightmare of creating the supplydumps and routing the new troops to their respective positions so that Hoth can concentrate on tactical matters.

As the days go by you get more and more worried that you are losing the initiative, and to your great dismay you have only recieved another 20 Panthers, barely making up forthe losses suffered in combat and to total burnouts during the inevitable fires. The Flammkatzen are at a total of 49 tanks, though they are still dogged by fires in the engines, but now they are already decreasing quite significantly in frequency. Their infantry are still behaving disgustingly towards the locals, and they have in fact gotten into a fight with some other personell from Das Reich over the fact that they ruined a perfectly good evening with a few busloads of women from Kharkov.

The 16th of April.
Hitler has once again postponed the attack, you are beginning to doubt the entire offensive, and you have heard that Guderian are working furiously to stop it. Not now Heinz! You only end up pushing Hitler towards a continual delaying...
But you have used the time to great effect. By now 4th Panzer Army is almost up to stength, and you have readied 3rd Panzer Corps from Army Detachment Kempf to be ready to redeploy to the north to form a guard along the right flank of Hoth. Nominally they will remain under control of Kempf, but de-facto it will be a joint command of you, Hoth and Kempf, determined by what troubles might arise.
Your attackline consists of nothing less than 2nd SS Panzer Corps, under Hausser, with Totenkopf, Das Reich and Leibstandarte, on their flanks you have arrayed Grossdeutchland to the west and 11th Panzer to east, effectively breaking up 48th Panzer Corps. The remaining forces, 3rd Panzer, 167th, 255th and 332nd are all combined into 52nd Corps to the west of Haussers forces, due to their lack of armour you are not going to rely on them too much. To the east near Belgorod you have Kempf's forces, ready to swing round to support the attack.
But you wonder... You are weak in infantry in the main attackforce, and you are uncertain of how much armour you can allow to be lost. Perhaps a shift in the line should be made?

The next morning, just after sunrise an orderly comes barging into your quarters. You are just about to assign him to the assault engineers when he blurts out. "Herr Field Marshall! I bring important news. A recon plane has spotted a massive traficjam of tanks, trucks, assaultguns, artillery... Every kind of vehicle you can imagine, and it is sitting just north of Butovo. We are talking about thousands of vehicles. Obviously something went wrong in the night and the Russians have since tried to move the vehicles out onto the fields to try to get round the jam but have in effect just extended the problems. The pilot is waiting for you out in the office."
You fly out of your bed, your mind a bewildering mess of thoughts and ideas, but you can't locate the right course of action, as you speak with the pilot you mind settles on a few courses.

1: Send in the planes, call for the gun-Stukas from down in Kerch (they will not arrive until at least 5 hours, meaning about noon), but don't do much else. While the jam is obviously a problem for the Russians there isn't much your groundforces can do about it as the frontlines are still intact.

2: Let Dessloch (von Richhofen's replacement) decide what to do about it. You will return to the issue of reforming the frontline.
a) Send Grossdeutchland to the east along with 332nd to reform 48th Panzer Corps so you have a better connection with Kempf's forces. This can be critical when the attack is launched.
b) Have the four divisions weak in armour ready and trained for attacks on the Russian positions in preperation for the armour to attack from behind. This might throw off the Russian preperations. Support for them is ready in the form of the 503rd Heavy Tank Battalion and the 1st Experimental Panther Battalion.

3: This is the one chance you have of catching the Russians with their pants down, and it gives you a perfect argument in front of Hitler when he begins the bombardment of you for not adhering to his orders (of waiting). Launch the entire attack right away.

4: This is a perfect chance for you to test the Russian lines. Launch planes to keep the jam in place, then have artillery soften up a section of front in preperation for the Panters to attack. It is the only strong force ready to attack right away, support with plenty infantry. Then throw in the Tigers of 503rd Heavy. They are very likely to capture a significant portion of Russain defences, giving you a vital insight into the Russian defences.

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Originally Posted by kagemusha

Nothing to be sorry about Kraxis.Interactive history is nothing in comparison to interactive real life.My condolences. :bow:

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Thank you... :vanish:

number 3.Attack now.every day that passes by puts you into more difficult position Russians are growing stronger faster then you can get new troops.

It is difficult to gauge the strength of the forces that are in the traffic jam or how much they effect the russian defenses. :thinking:

Im going to have to go, somewhat reluctantly, with 3. No matter if there was a traffic jam or not, the russians cannot be allowed to continue making preparations for a battle they apparently know will be fought on that ground. The delay has already given up a critical advantage - surprise. No need to compound it.

It's time for another Blitzkrieg. This is probably your only chance before the Russian line becomes too strong and deep to break. Choice 3; take the risk. Do not let Hitler get in the way of a German victory.

By the way, my condolences for your personal matter. :bow:

Sorry to hear about that, Kraxis.

Anyway, 1 and 2 are right out. You need to take advantage of this somehow before the balance shifts completely in Ivan's favor.

I'd go with option 4. It'd annoy Hitler less than a full-out assault (giving you a better chance of getting von Richthofen back), while still disrupting the enemy's efforts at reinforcement and digging-in. Still, 3 is a viable alternative, and might work wonders, it just seems riskier.

Go!!! Attack Now!!! Before It's Too Late!!! 3!!!!!

Option 3. Their pants are down, as you said - their vitals are in plain view. Kick away.

Thanks guys... I knew you would understand, but I felt I had to explain.

Anyway back to the job at hand.
It is clear you want option 3, and option 3 it will be.

On the Road again

The pilot details his findings to you while you consider the implications, but you are already beginning to think out the tactical considerations. "Well, I flew over a traficjam, that much was certain, but I had a hard time determining the size of it because of dustclouds around it. Then it hit me, the Russians are trying to move their vehicles around the clog. I even managed to see a few places where they were already standing still with new jams. Then I got chased away by fighters."
You take a quick look at the man's rank, a mere lieutenant, but he seems sincere and honest. "Thank you, now return to your unit, this might get rocky."

As the pilot leaves you grab the phone and contacts Dessloch. "GET EVERYTHING IN THE AIR!!! I want the traficjam blasted to bits, send in the level bombers first, then the divebombers and tankkillers. And don't forget the gun-Stukas at Kerch." Dessloch is surprisingly calm and merely gives an acknowledgement. Then you get in touch with Hoth. He has also heard of the jam but is less inclined to attack than you are now.
"I understand Erich, but my panzers are not ready, we didn't expect an attack out of the blue like this."
"Then attack with what you have got. Open up with the artillery until the troops can get under way."
"Hm... I don't like this at all, but fine I'll do it. Btw, has the Führer gotten wind of this?"
"Heh... no, but he will as soon as we are sharing a drink with Model and von Kluge in Kursk."
"Ahhh, good. Then I will get right at it."

Within a few minutes you can hear the rumble of artillery laying a smackdown on the frontlines, the screeching of nebelwerfers join in the cacophany, meanwhile a low hum permeates the air... The planes are heading into battle. Hundreds of them it seems, Heinkels and Junkers en masse, escorted by scores of fighters. It is a most impressive spectacle and you are indeed happy not to be a Russian today.
You turn to your aide, "contact von Kluge and inform him of what is going on. I'm going to visit Hoth."

After only 15 minutes of artillery fire the Panthers and their infantry roll into action. Their long guns easily blasting Russian guns to bits as they advance, their infantry storming bunkers and other emplacements. Dased Russain infantry are soon being herded to the rear by MPs. The Panthers advance easily because they know the land from their earlier excursions, and because every single night the Das Reich engineers and escorts have fought a vicious battle with Russian engineers over the minefields in no-mans land, keeping the numbers of mines low.
But besides the success of Das Reich, you find that the other divisions are trying to advance with infantry along with a few ready tanks. Initially it goes well, as the Russians have built up to face a heavy armoured assault, and the artillery and infantry easily takes care of the guns, but losses have been high from the covering machineguns and strong infantry positions.

As noon comes, it is clear that most of the forwards Russian positions are taken. And now the tanks are finally coming into action behind the infantry (the engineers are furiously trying to clear paths through the captured minefields), but some are quickly disabled by mines. The attack on the next lines is taken in full stride by the tanks while the infantry has had time for a short rest. This time however it is not going nearly as well as hoped.
First of all the Russian positions are much stronger than the first lines with many more infantry positions, and your infantry are quickly bogged down, meanwhile the tanks try to offer support to their attacks, but as soon as they advance they run into minefields and put under fire from perfectly covered AT guns.

You arrive at Hoth's HQ around 3 o'clock in the afternoon, but he is anything but happy. The tough general with the stony eyes greets you with a major frown on his forehead.
"Erich, this is turning out to be a white elephant. I have heard that Model can't attack until in two days, the Russians are bringing in reinforcements and my advance is too damn slow. We have run into minefields and simply can't advance for the moment. Luckily the Russian artillery seems to be preoccupied with the trafficjam to be much of the nuisance, and our planes are intercepting the Russian attackplanes. So we are pretty much free, but we can't use it for much."
This is most disturbing for you, it seems you were a bit too hasty in your attack, and now the tanks are getting disabled in the minefields in great numbers.
"How goes the Flammkatzen?"
"Well, there we have an outright success. They have suffered quite a few casualties, but with the infantry and recovery vehicles nearby all the tanks have been recovered. Further only 3 tanks have suffered fires, and 5 in total have broken down. Even now their infantry is taking Streletskoye at the ridge of the hills."

The assault continues until the darkness falls, along with rain... The infantry suffers out in the cold rain while the ground will soon become boggy. The hum of planes passing back and forth continues, and you can see on the edge of horizon several large explosions and large fires. Meanwhile the artillery takes a few individual fireorders from the forward positions. The batteries going off now and then. Besides you you can see vehicles moving up to the front, carrying all kind of equipment, but you notice that a lot of it is engineer equipment and engineers themselves. They are moving up to clear the minefields... It is the usual night of an attack.
The almost complete absence of Russian artillery has been merciful on the infantry. Their exposed attacks were only harried by mortars and infantryguns, and these were quickly overwhelmed by the speed of the infantry or the weight of the metal falling on them.
Dessloch himself called you earlier that the trafficjam is a blazing inferno of burning tanks and trucks, and large explosions of ammo and fuel. In fact, he reckoned that his polits would be able to attack deep into the night using the light from the fires to attack further vehicles. But at the same time he is disappointed that there were far fewer tanks than first anticipated.
You are yourself rather discouraged, the total losses of tank the first day have been massive, more than 100 tanks have been disabled, luckily most by mines, and have thus been salvaged by recovery vehicles. But they are still lost to you tomorrow, and likely for quite a few days yet. Further Kempf's forces are in no state to attack at the moment. You only gave him orders for the rearrangement two days ago and his forces are strung out on the roads. Quite a few of the tanks are ready, but they lack most of their infantry and artillery.
Lastly, the Russians do not seem all that affected by the lack of armour close to the front. They have fought with tenacity and determination beyond what they did last year, they haven't surrendered in masses yet. Basically all prisoners have come from the front positions, where the dregs and worts troops have been positioned.

This has not gone as you hoped at all, it has been damned near a comeplete disaster, but at least the 1st Experimental Panther Battalion has done extremely well, and its advance has put a rather large dent into the Russian lines, but even they have noted that there are furher enemy positions ahead of them, though hardly as strong as the ones overrun today.

You wonder what your next course of action should be.

1) Carry on tomorrow. The minefields should be cleared, at least most of them. The Russians were obviously taken by tactical surprise as they didn't expect your attack, and they have suffered heavy losses. The Russian support branches around Butovo are smashed and there is no sight of the tanks. Also, by carrying on you can ignore Hitler for a while yet.

2) Halt completely. Your losses to the tanks have been very heavy, but most are only out of comission for a handful of days, so you are at the moment weakened significantly in tanks, limiting your offensive capabilities. Meanwhile you have taken the hills covering your approach. They will now seve as perfect defensive positions and great stagingpoints for the next attack when the tanks are back from the shops in numbers.

3) Your losses are too heavy to carry on in full yet, but the Panthers are not significantly affected by losses, due to your prudent action of having the technicians nearby for several actionfilled weeks. Give them complete support by the 503rd Heavies and have the two battalions with most of Das Reich (least affected by mines) run rampant in the rear of the Russian positions.

4) While you surprised the Russians, your own men were surpsrised as well, they need time to adjust. Shift more forces into the succesful Das Reich area and carry on the attack from there, expanding the burgeoning breach to facilitate a more complete attack the day after tomorrow (when Model says he can finally attack).

number 4. Exploit the enemy's weakness

number four.push the breach concentrate your forces.

I was a bit split between three and four, but I'll personally go with nr.3.
We're just not truly in a position to take advantage of Das Reichs success yet. :dizzy2:

Isn't this heading towards the original Backhand approach, but applied by the Russians?

Number 3, halt, restore, and attack. The Blitzkrieg is over - now it's time to actually stand firm, raise the pikes, and become the storm crushing through the Russian forces - slowly but surely. The Russians would expect you to Blitz, and they would be prepared. Let the panzers harass the Russians out of their mind while you recover for another blow.

One, full scale blitz, would completely exhaust your forces and leave them prey to the numerically superior Russians. Two would guarantee the Russian reinforcing again, and the momentum and opportunity lost - completely. Four would push some of your forces ahead too far and become the battle of the Bulge.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Geoffrey S

Isn't this heading towards the original Backhand approach, but applied by the Russians?

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Perhaps... I might have plans, and they might include that, but as with everything in this thread I can't tell you anything for certain besides regular info. So remember, if you are confused about something orjust want more info (how many prisoners did we take? things like that for instance), say so, then I will try my best to answer.

Change of plans

When the fighting finally died down, and the calm was only broken by intermittent artilleryfire and the lonely bombers and recon planes flying back and forth, you sit back in a cushioned chair at Hoth's headquarters. Sitting there you try to imagine what your Russian counterparts, Zhukov, Rokossovsky and Vasilevsky is doing. It must be a hell of a night for them, Stalin breathing down their necks and most of a Guards Army without artillery it seems. But you have your own woes, Hitler is at the forefront there. In fact you expect him to call you soon to hear what is going on.
You decide that the truth is the best weapon, you attacked because you had a golden opportunity, but you'd better leave out the losses suffered to mines.

Speaking of the devil! Hoth's aide brings you a phone, it is Hitler!
You answer it, and for a long second there is no answer, then finally Hitler speaks in a groweling tone: "What in hell is going on?!?! I told you to wait!"
"But Mein Führer, I was presented with a most auspicious chance I simply had to take. We have made good progress."
"You should have consulted me! I'm your commander. And I wouldn't say that taking a few hills is much progress in Russia. I can't afford this kind of warfare, Stalin can."
"Unfortunately there wasn't time to contact you, besides you were asleep at the time, I didn't want to wake you up. These hills are insignificant to your grand plans I'm sure, but to this operation they are vital."
"So how have my Panthers done?"
The question you dreaded... If you tell the truth, Hitler might think it is all his benefit, and he might even force you to call off further attacks 'now that you have gotten a perfect sprinboard for later attacks'. You decide to tell him a white lie.
"They have done fairly well."
"Explain!"
"When they have engaged the enemy in combat they have done very well, their guns and good armour have proven their worth. But sadly the tanks are too unreliable, they break down as soon as the wind changes or there is lump on the road."
Hitler only makes grumbling noises to that, but eventually he does talk again.
"So what now... The attack has been begun, I don't expect you to back down from it."
"Well, we were surprised by the events as well, so the attack wasn't perfect. I will continue the attack tomorrow by an open venue I have found in the Russian lines. But don't expect a total victory as it will be fairly limited in it's scope."
"Hmm... I will have to talk with my staff about this."
"I would prefer that you did not. There is little they can do that I can't. I will keep you informed regularly."
"Do not forget that you are not infallible and that prepared defences have stopped you before (Sevastopol 41)."
"I do not Mein Führer."
For a few minutes you entertain the armchair strategist in the guise of a statesman, but finally Hitler is drawn to more interesting issues.

During the night you and Hoth reform the troops in great extent. You redeploy Grossdeutchland to the rear of Das Reich along with the 503rd Heavies and the 332nd. This forces you to extent the other divisions' zones of control, but you don't expect that to be much troube as you have hit them hard. They are more likely to try to contain Das Reich. Hoth handles the details and the direct commands while you make certain that the roads are open and that the supplies are ready in the morning. It is a gruelling task for the both of you, and you fall asleep only minutes before the new attack is launched, just before the first light breaks.

Having learned a lot from the previous day the 1st Experimental Panther Battalion follows in the wake of a rolling barrage with infantry covered by the tanks. This time the artillery reports a counterbattery fire is fired from the Russian lines, but it is scattered and seemingly confused. As soon as the Panthers encounter organized resistance they speed up and let the infantry charge the enemy positions. Covered by the Russian fortifications the Panthers halt, keeping the nearby enemy positions under fire. Finally their support arrives, the Tigers of 503rd. They drive right through into the heaviest fire, as soon as they pass the Panthers take up flanking positons covering the weaker Panzer IIIs at the rear of the Tigers. Together they advance northwest, until any further would bring them too far away.
For hours the battle rages, then suddenly the Tigers and Panthers are suprisingly attacked by strong tank forces of some 30-40 T-34s in each individual force. The open ground and good aircover break these attacks, though losses are inevitable. But the technicians and the support troops of the two batalions take good care of the tanks that break down (a problem that still haunts the Panthers).

The rest of Das Reich have followed on to the north, as the heavier tanks swerved to the west a bit to face the strongest resistance northeast of Butovo in the form of the remnants of the 67th Guards Rifle Division (the unlucky recipients of the attack yesterday). The advance is quickly heading for the village of Olkhovka where forces of 69th Army are positioned.
Meanwhile Grossdeutchland have been heading almost directly west towards Butovo in an attempt to cut off 71st Guards Rifle. Their rear is a mess due to the unexpected shift of the heavy tanks and it is totally unguarded. The tanks of Grossdeutchland 'plunder the nest' and eventually they link up with infantry from 3rd Panzer, the bag is closed by no less than four divisions, inside it is the 71st GR, the 51st GR and parts of the 161st Rifle division of 40th Army. The entire left flank is thus secured with numerous prisoners taken.
It is quickly learned from the regimental commander of 199th GR Regiment that the tanks from the entire 3rd Mechanized Corps were suppoed to have covered the rear, but to his surprise they never arrived. They had been stopped somewhere further north, there sat the Tigers and Panthers, fighting off attack after attack on their protected position. And because of the slaughter of vehicles the day before north of Butovo the only route south (and into the flank of Grossdeutchland) was through them.

This though, has taken most of the day and Grossdeutchland is highly disorganized, they will need some time to reform as Totenkopf advances to take its place to the east of her.
The 332nd Infantry Division advances to keep the rear of the heavy tanks and the flank of Das Reich clear from attack from the east. To your great dismay they suffer a serious setback when the tanks of 2nd Guards Tanks Corps attackes them in the middle of their advance. The tenacity of the infantry and their supporting artillery along with the few gun-Stukas hold off the tanks until nightfall, but losses have been heavy among the trucks, other vehicles and support troops. As the evening fall they hold back a few other attacks made from the 39th and 31st Rifle Divisions, but these were weak, possibly because they had been involved in heavy fighting during the Kharkov battles.

Das Reich on the other hand has during the day advanced as far as the outskirts of Yakovlevo, on the Belgorod-Oboyan highway, an advance of 7 miles, and directly down between the 3rd Mech Corps and the 5th Tank Corps. Advancing further is folly so they stay put.

The result of the day is a surprisingly large advance and a good capture of troops. You hadn't expected that when you ordered the attack. Perhaps the Russians simply haven't got the depth and stamina for this fight? But as noted the day has been very tough on both Grossdeutchland and 332nd Infantry. And the Heavy Tanks are continually under attack from various forces of 3rd Mech Corps. Their fall would open up the entire flank of both Das Reich and Grossdeutchland, and the rear of 332nd Infantry. But as the darkness falls the tankattacks stop while infantry tries to infiltrate towards the encircled forces. For the moment the infantry of the two battalions and their support infantry can hold it, but it is not certain.

Also today the Russian artillery finally woke up, and delivered their first proper 'services' to the troops, especially the 332nd suffered from that, but also the Heavy Tanks in Hell's Foreyard, as their position has become known because of the continual and varied attacks, have suffered casualties to artillery.
Even the Russian planes have performed better today. Several bomber formations have attacked your lines, but to your great relief thay have concentrated on the intial positions of Das Reich, so your armour have for the most part gone free, but again the poor 332nd was in the middle of it.

All in all a very positive day. Now you wonder if you should wait at all. Hoth as always is all for another surprising attack, and argues that you should use the heavy tanks to the northeast to blunt the tanks of 5th Tanks Corps, while Das Reich goes deep behind 3rd Mech Corps and Liebstandarte protects the flank to the east.

1) Continue to expand the breach, this time to the east, in the hope that Kempf might finally bring up his forces to close the gap when Liebstandarte and 11th Panzer breaks east. Meanwhile you hold the rest in place.

2) Pull Grossdeutchland's tanks up to Hell's Foreyard to shore up that position during the night. Then go on the offensive in the morning, hopefully this will catch the Russians with their tanks in the open for another attack. The rest you keep on the defensive.

3) Take Hoth up on his idea and redeploy the 332nd to Hell's Foreyard while the Tigers and Panthers deploy to the northeast and Leibstandarte takes over from 332nd on the east flank.

4) Concentrate your efforts on reducing the Russian troops caught in the bag south of Butovo. You need your lines firm and strong, that can't be achieved with several of your best divisions caught up in guarding trapped enemies. Besides you need some time still for both Kempf and Model to add their weight and for the disabled tanks to begin to retun in numbers. Local attacks to gain specific postions are of course to be advocated.

Choice 4, I think. You are risking overextending yourself as it's your armour corps that wins the day today, and they are now in the disadvantaged position. The capture of the trapped Russian divisions would satisfy Hitler while you re-organize the messed up battle lines and look forward for the re-increase in the number of tanks. Parts of the Russian forces that were "asleep" during your earlier attacks are now "waking up", as you said. With more active Russian air and artillery activity you cannot risk another blitzkrieg, not while some of your troops are exhausted and others occupied, unable to provide an overwhelming weight on the Russians.

Finish reducing the encircled Russian troops. You need to do it in order to shore up your lines, as your troops have seen some extremely heavy fighting and are on the verge of collapsing.

But first, you need to reorganize and reinforce your forces. Beef up the line by bringing Grossdeutchland's tanks into Hell's Front Yard, and attach some spare infantry battalions to the 332nd infantry division before deploying them in order to make sure that they don't collapse due to casualties and combat exhaustion. If you can, try to use your airplanes to take out the Russian's artillery and airplanes during the night. Turn Hell's Front Yard into a heavy defensive position with LAH and Totenkopf guarding the flanks until the troops in the pocket can be reduced, before going on the offensive again. That way, you can be certain of your own supply and fuel lines, and allow for Kempf and Model to arrive at the battlefield.

Agreed. Reduce the pocket. I keep having visions of those inside making a breakout that cuts off your forces....

Number 4. It's like playing Risk and trying to conquer Asia in one turn. It's not gonna last. Spreading yourself out thin is not good.

I fear a massive Russian tank counterattack shortly, especially to breakout
the trapped units. So #4 is my choice after bringing up Grossdeuchland and
relieving 322 to at most seige perimeter of the trapped units. Maybe a
backhand slap may still be possible as I can't see the Russians just sitting
back at this point in the war and letting those troops just be slaughtered or
taken prisoner. ~:confused:

Settling the matters

You shake your head at Hoth. "No my friend, we have to reduce the Russian troops caught at the moment befoer we can resume any advance. When they are taken care of only the 1st Tank Army stand in our way, we will have almost wiped out the 6th Guards Army."
"True, but we are exposed as it is. If we allow the Russians to strengthen their positions they might bring in enough reinforcements to halt us."
"Soon both Model and Kempf join us. If the Russians take forces from the north then Model will have little trouble reaching at least Ponryi, and the open terrain in the north will go a long way towards getting him there."
The two of your continue the talks and you basically settle on a quick reduction of the two GR divisions. Hopefully they will surrender fast.
Late in the evening Hausser contacts the two of you, he feels that Das Reich is in a very precarious position with two strong armoured forces on either of its flanks. He asks that the two strong tank battalions be moved up to its positions to halt any armoured attacks on Das Reich. You tell him that SSR will have to weather any attacks on its own, the Panthers and Tigers will stay put, they need to protect the vulnerable back of Grossdeutchland (GD). Further, it is more likely that the 3rd Mech Corps will continue it's attacks on Kampfgruppe Heidekamp (the two battalions of heavy tanks) rather than turn and attack Das Reich.

The night follows the same pattern as the previos night with the difference that the encircled Russian forces try to punch their way out in a rather uncoordinated fashion, and the artillery of the local forces easily deal with them. Also Obersturmbannführer Heidekamp, the commander of Kampfgruppe Heidekamp reports of continual infiltration attacks on his position. He lacks the infantry to deal with them. All you can do is to have artillery bombard the area in front of his position and hope for the best.

In the morning 3rd Panzer, Totenkopf and 255th Infantry attack the pocket in force, supported by heavy artillery and some infantry from GD. Lacking their rear echelons of infantry and support branches (captured yesterday by GD) the elements of the three Russian divisions have no chance at all. Yet the two Guards units fight on with a tenacity seldomly seen, but the troops of 161st Rifle break within an hour and open up for a further attack on the flanks of the two other units. The few tanks of 3rd Panzer plough into them and organized defense falls apart.
Just after noon new long lines of prisoners head towards Germany for use in the industry.

Unlike GD the day at Hell's Foreyard is anything but easy. Right before dawn a new attack of tanks fly at the Kampgruppe, this time it contains KV-1 tanks at it's head and infantry at the rear. The placement of the German tanks makes certain that a large number of guns can be brought to bear on the Russian forces, but besides small earth embankments in front of the tanks there is nothing to protect them. And the infantry has a hard time in keeping out of sight. But as before the attack is too weak in both organisation and in planning. You realize quickly that the position will be the focuspoint for the Russians in the sector, and you order Dessloch to keep a dense guard of fighters and Stukas overhead to intercept both Russian air and ground forces. This comes at the cost of the rest of the front, in particular the western part of your forces.
The next few hours are silent, but for determined Russian airattacks, though these in the end are quite costly. Then suddenly a massive artillery bombardment saturates the ground, guns and rockets fall in dense clusters on the exposed position. Finally smoke is laid over your forces, but Heidekamp is a smart fellow and orders an advance of the tanks out of the smokescreen. Outside the screen they come into contact with a massive Russian tankforce, quickly Heidekamp's tanks halt and try to fight a battle at distance, while the Russians speed up to close in. You follow the tactical battle with great interest.

Meanwhile Das Reich is itself also under attack, but not from 3rd Mech Corps but from the east by 5th Guards Tanks Corps. The attack is quite well controlled and the tanks advance in dense clusters with the infantry riding on the back or run alongside, while artillery falls on Das Reich from both sides. The density and power of the attack forces Das Reich backwards a short distance until the attack halts for unknown reasons. This gives the tanks of the divisions an opportunity to counterattack and they regain the lost positions. But Hausser is on the verge of giving up the entire position when another attack is started. You order him to keep the division in place and send Liebstandarte (LAH) north to hit the Russuans in their flank. You hope this will stop the attacks, but it will throw your careful setup into the wind, though this is more less what has happened everywhere else so far.

Totenkopf quickly disengages from the mopping up and manages to launch an attack west of Butovo, it is hoped that they might link up at Hell's Foreyard but the disorganized attack is slow to get off and the defenses have been strengthened significantly the last two days and the attack breaks ups. GD moves east as 3rd Panzer and 255th mops up the last resistance areas, as they cross the line of Totenkopf they disorganize the latter but their movement i supposed to send reinforcements to the exposed northwestern shoulder of the bulge.

As the massive tankbattle northeast of Butovo plays out you get more and more uncertain. The about 70 heavy tanks of the Kampfgruppe fight like the cats they are named after but enemy numbers is very impressive, and losses have thus far been quite significant but their control of the battlefield has enabled the support sections to recover the knocked out tanks worth recovering.

Hoth is once again aggressive and impatient. He argues that you should wait for LAH to hit the 5th Guards Tanks Corps in the flank, then attack with Das Reich into the flank of 3rd Mech Corps to halt the attack on the exposed shoulder.

Hausser, known for defying Hitler when he withdrew from Kharkov, has much the same in mind now, when he calls you. He still want to pull back Das Reich to a less exposed position, from there it is safe and can support Hell's Foreyard against 3rd Mech Corps' attacks.

You are yourself not certain and you think up several options.

1: Follow Hoth's advise. Support Heidekamp with all the artillery and all the planes you can spare, and some that you can't spare, and hope that it is enough until LAH hits 5th Tank Guards in the flank, letting Das Reich strike at 3rd Mech Corps. It should be weak from armoured losses the previous day, and an attack here could be decisive.

2: Have Heidekamp conduct a fighting retreat from his exposed position, this should send his forces right back to LAH and their positions. Halt LAH directly east of Butovo and prepared to recieve both the enemy and Heidekamps tanks.

3: Let Hausser retreat Das Reich to a position where it is protected by LAH. There it can support the Panthers and Tiger. This is a very safe approach but unfortunately it might impact the morale of the men and the Russians will likely strengthen their positions for your next attcks.

4: Do nothing at the moment, but keep a close eye on the action so you can react to any development. This is perhaps risky, but you are confident that Das Reich is stronger than Hausser claims, together with LAH it will be able to rip open the entire 5th Tank Guards Corps. Kampfgruppe Heidekamp simply has to grit it's teeth and hang in there until GD can reach its positions. You will of course keep it heavily supported with aircover and artillery.

Kraxis, may I please have a map of the area, with the known locations of the Russian forces (or at least a quickie description)

It's getting a bit hard to keep track.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DemonArchangel

Kraxis, may I please have a map of the area, with the known locations of the Russian forces (or at least a quickie description)

It's getting a bit hard to keep track.

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You know I would love to... I sensed a bit of confusion in the last decision. I have searched far and wide but most are woefully inadequate or in Russian (and thus I don't know what they really present).

The best I can do it to present the front as it looks now and add a small hastily created paint image of the front as it looked. Then I hope you can imagine the units by my description:
https://img255.imageshack.us/my.php?image=butovo5gg.jpg
Now imagine that the black is the front before the attack, the blue is the highway, and the red is from left to right, Butovo, Yakovlevo and Belgorod.

At about two thirds the length of the salient from the west we find the village of Butovo. It is about 4 miles in from the front along the highway and railway towards Oboyan (about halfway to Kursk). The front is not perfect east-west but tilts a bit southwards.

South of Butovo and a bit west we find 3rd Panzer and 255th in the process of of mopping up. To the northwest of them, and to the west of Butovo, we find Totenkopf, currently reorganizing. Opposing Totenkopf we have elements of 3rd Mech Corps, elements of 40th Army and the paltry remains of 67th GR Division. They are a mishmash of various troops thrown onto the position, but they are supported by boggy terrain.
To the east of Butovo we have our breakthrough, it is about 10 miles wide at the moment, and about 12 miles deep. At its tip we find Das Reich near the town of Yakovlevo, also at this point we find the river Vorskla, small though and hardly of impact. The town is about 10 miles east and 5 miles north of Butovo. Thus if the front is tilted to the south initially it will position the town at the center of the breakthrough as it moves slightly northeast. From it is is possible to go directly north towards Oboyan.
Das Reich has the main forces of 3rd Mech Corps to its west and 5th Guards Tank Corps to the east. Thus in front of Das Reich are elements of 5th.
Moving along the front southeast of Butovo we have Grossdeutchland, heading for the Kampfgruppe with all haste.

Just northeast of Butovo we find the Kampfgruppe, they occupy a bit of the highway and thus a very important connection to the now lost troops. That is the reason for the furious attacks on them, they were in the way.
The rear of Das Reich is guarded by 332nd Infantry, behind them we find the Liebstandarte. They were basically at the front, but have since pushed up, and are now ready to push up to Das Reich alongside 332nd. Effectively widening the breach a bit. On the rear right we have 11th Panzer. The opposition here is dug in deep, and consist of the 31st, 39th, 92nd GR and 375th, going all the way to Belgorod.

When/if GD and LAH arrives at their assigned positions you have a very strong force ready. Being GD (possibly with Totenkopf to the west), Das Reich and LAH (possibly with 11th Panzer to the east), and at your descretion Kampfgruppe Heidekamp.

Behind and to the west of 3rd Mech Corps we find 31st Tank Corps.

I'm personally a bit torn up between 1 or 2.
The first one depends on the actual strength of LAH, if you aren't able to defeat the Guards Tank Corps then you're in a world of pain. On the other hand number two is risky, but if it works it might be worth it, but the risks are too big for me.

So I'll go with 1, because I believe LAH should be able to crush the 5th Guards Tank. If they succeed in it, then things might be fine..

IMO, the 5th Tank guards wouldn't leave their flank open. It's either a trap, or a form of extreme stupdity. Have Das Reich hold off the 5th Tk Corps for as long as possible (with artillery and airsupport of course) while performing recconaissance on the russian forces. If Das Reich is about to get encircled, allow it to make a withdrawal to LAH in order to await further attacks.

If the recco shows that the 5th Tk is indeed exposed, then attack.
If it's a trap, change my tactics accordingly.