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Did anyone see the news late last night (where they discuss the following days' newspaper headlines)?
The discussion intimated that there was a possible racial element to the relief effort in the south. The political correspondent for a paper (Independent?) suggested that if the hurricane had hit maryland or Beverly Hills the relief effort he imagined would have been a lot better implemented...
I cant help but wonder along the same lines but am undecided really..
Opinions?
There does have to be a suspicion that things would have been different in Seattle, but maybe that's just because New Orleans is disorganised rather than the south is racist. I find it rather hard to imagine that any federal agencies were on Miller time just because it was blacks in the water.
What did strike me was the incredible class element. Here we have this mass of people too poor to own their own cars, pay for alternative accomodation, or any of those things, and no one seems to have planned a damn thing to do about them. (And that is a state and city matter) Some people even suggested it was their fault, overlooking the fact that they had no means of transport and nowhere to go.
This would never have happened in the so-called class divided UK.
I do not think there is anything that can be qualified of racist in the mess that occured last week.
Rather, as stated by English Assassin, there is a huge social element.
Maybe the part of poor people is more important in states such as Louisiana, but it seems obvious that view a few exceptions, only the poor people were victims of this catastroph.
It looks like if those that could afford to flee did it and those that could not were let to themselves whatever the consequences : just like if they did not exist.
It makes think to a society where middle and upper class have a weight but lower classes simply do not count.
Yes, a very class divided country indeed.
The other element - aside from class - that strikes me is health. Seeing the sick and the infirm trapped was particularly heart-wrenching. The image of a blanket covering a body in a wheelchair is a haunting one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrus
To be honest, though, I am not sure how well the UK would have handled this - unlike the Dutch case AdrianII mentioned, I don't think we have a precedent. Presumably, the institutionalised were evacuated in NO - it's those at home who were left. Making sure all the sick and infirm in city were taken out of their own homes would be an incredible administrative effort.
I agree, the theoretical differences in response to such a disaster would depend a lot on where it hit... for instance, if it had hit California, I should think it would be quite a different scenario, not because of all those rich whites, but because (I hope) disaster planning is much more part of the 'norm'. An even better example would be Japan, but Japan seems to attract every sort of natural disaster possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by English assassin
Suggesting that it's their own fault because they are too poor is just wrong, but I don't think there is any sort of concerted effort to keep the poor down, the poor will always bear the brunt of a disaster, it's just the way it is. Just another side effect of very bad planning and a lacking response.Quote:
What did strike me was the incredible class element. Here we have this mass of people too poor to own their own cars, pay for alternative accomodation, or any of those things, and no one seems to have planned a damn thing to do about them. (And that is a state and city matter) Some people even suggested it was their fault, overlooking the fact that they had no means of transport and nowhere to go.
This would never have happened in the so-called class divided UK.
Sure, but what strikes me most is the absence of government from the local level all the way to the top. In my country a mayor would have been standing on top of that levee even if there was a huge risk that it would break. Happens all the time here when there is a risk of flooding. A mayor either evacuates his town and makes sure he is the last one out, or he stays there with everyone else to ride it out and be seen to ride it out. He is responsible for the maintenance of dykes and levees in his district, and if he runs he is fired on the spot by the Minister of the Interior. Of course said minister would not be vacationing on his ranch, nor would our Prime Minister chose to attend a fund raiser or the Foreign Secretary be shopping for shoes at the critical moment. Sorry for the rant, but I still find the whole thing over there surreal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Simon Appleton
New Orleans had a population just under 5 million. London is about 7.5 million, with (arguably) better public transport. Could you totally evacuate London in 24 hours?
Point taken on the apparent 'asleep at the wheel' -ness of some of our leadership.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/pruden.htm
This pretty much has all that i wanted to say. Why did the mayor wait so late for the mandatory evacuation and didn't move the buses to higher ground? Oh, he's black BTW. Why didn't Jesse Jackson and other poverty pimps go and help evacuate the people? There is no racial element here. Yes, I would say a economical issue, but still the MAYOR did not prepar HIS city. You should see the intervues with this clown. All he does is deflect any criticism. He' no Gulliani.
http://neworleans.indymedia.org/news/2005/09/4034.php
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/02/katrina.nagin/
Go down about halfway to read the intervue with Nagin...
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIP...05/ltm.01.html
I really like this part...
"He called me in that office after that. And he said, “Mr. Mayor, I offered two options to the governor.” I said — and I don’t remember exactly what. There were two options. I was ready to move today. The governor said she needed 24 hours to make a decision.
S. O’BRIEN: You’re telling me the president told you the governor said she needed 24 hours to make a decision?
NAGIN: Yes.
S. O’BRIEN: Regarding what? Bringing troops in?
NAGIN: Whatever they had discussed. As far as what the — I was abdicating a clear chain of command, so that we could get resources flowing in the right places.
S. O’BRIEN: And the governor said no.
NAGIN: She said that she needed 24 hours to make a decision. It would have been great if we could of left Air Force One, walked outside, and told the world that we had this all worked out. It didn’t happen, and more people died."
Here's an article on the "Welfare State" and its effects to the midnset of the victoms..
http://www.rightnation.us/forums/ind...howtopic=86931
And the last article, just for old times sake...
http://americandaily.com/article/9101
Best post of the thread. This mayor is hollow... :furious3:Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
Sorry, under 500.000. In any modern city they could have been evacuated in twelve hours time. So we don't know what might have been if that mayor would have got off his you-know-what in the first place.Quote:
Originally Posted by KukriKhan
Of course, if you don't have sufficient police and infrastructure, engineers, buses and whatnot, the task becomes daunting, but that is a sign of absent government as well.
When the city of Mumbai in India was flooded there was no looting, no break-down, a very low number of dead and no food shortage which is remarkable for India. In case you wonder, Mumbai has 20 million inhabitants.
This little baby is called Nabi, she landed just yesterday on the Chinese coast.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/image...oachafp203.jpg
In Anhui province alone more than 100,000 people had to leave their homes. Almost 12,000 homes were damaged in the south-eastern coastal city of Wenzhou, in Zhejiang province. Accordig to Xinhua up to a million people were moved from low-lying coastal flood plains in Zhejiang and Fujian provinces.
Most internet sources seem to be putting the city population at about 0.5 million?Quote:
Originally Posted by KukriKhan
Point taken, its far from a trival undertaking. And I certainly don't mean to suggest an equivalent UK operation would not be incompetently executed. Very probably it would, and the US execution, when the US execution actually begins, will probably be more efficient.
But there would at least be a plan at the start that included the poor and the infirm.
Anyway, a further point, with my deconstruction hat on, whether or not the fiasco to date has been caused by a "racial element", it sure as hell has a racial element now, doesn't it? Rightly or (as I believe) wrongly. And, you know, the factoid that Bush cut short his holiday to sign emergency legislation for Terry Schiavo, but remained away from Washington for this...well, interesting. I guess Bush knows what pushes his supporters buttons. Maybe he thinks they care more about one right to life case than a few thousand starving blacks?
Just asking.
He is only a symptom. Looks like the real culprit here is hostility to government. Not contempt for blacks or the poor or the Army engineers, but contempt for government as a force for good. This ideology has prevailed in the U.S. for the past twenty-five years. Even after 9/11 it took a long time to wrench U.S. airport security out of the incompetent and cost-cutting hands of private companies. Go figure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Devastatin Dave
Oh, and we have our share of the same over here so this is no U.S. bashing. I am bashing an insane ideology that says everybody will be better off if we are all left to fend for ourselves.
You're right, of course :bow: (mis-counted my zero's). My follow-up question was: "IF some where left behind in a 'total' evacuation, who would those folks likely be?", with the built-in answer being "Those least resourced for transportation", i.e. the poor.
Don't get me wrong; I'm no defender of any level of government in this debacle. I can sort of understand how they got caught flat-footed on recognizing the threat (with the storm going from Cat I to Cat V in 24 hours), but the failure to effectively coordinate ANY phase of response so far just has me baffled, more than a little embarrassed, and sometimes downright outraged.
I understand and agree. I would just add that apparently New Orleans had no plan, only a big sign that said 'Run!'Quote:
Originally Posted by KukriKhan
The reason why some of us non-Americans are hammering on these issues is that we are all human beings and when something like this happens you are outraged no matter where you live -- just like many American patrons here were outraged when the tsunami-aid for Sri Lanka and Indonesia was slow in coming.
Of course the usual suspects won't skip this great opportunity for some good old bashing..
Not just the Executive...Congress, too. (Link below is to an editorial cartoon).Quote:
Originally Posted by English assassin
http://content.todayscartoons.uclick...88e11f3cd9c934
I don't necessarily think that some of the problems were racial; but there have been instances in the event with a definite economic status bias. Do a little digging into what happened at the two hospitals across the road from each other. One, the Tulane University Medical Center was a private hospital, the place to care for the wealthy. The other Charity Hospital was a public hospital existing entirely on charity donations and cared for the poor without insurance. Care to guess which one was evacuated entirely in less than a day while the other - right across the street had no power, no food, no water, dwindling medical supplies, rising water and no evacuations for days?
Was the public one run by the govt?
I'm guessing no, if it was funded by donations...
I think I might be more inclined to say the stupid. After seeing more interviews with survivors I cant do anything but shake my head. Of course poor and stupid probably walk hand in hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by KukriKhan
Still no excuse for the total lack of leadership from local gov. and poor response time from the federal gov.
I saw on the news a night or two ago where trucks of supplies (with news teams in them-vultures) from Michigan were the first to arrive in a Mississippi town hit hard by the hurricane. How can supplies from Michigan get there before supplies from the Gov. or even from states closer? There are 6 stated between Michigan and Mississippi. And where was the mayor of this Mississippi town? Do all local gov. officials disappear when their city is in trouble? This mayor or others like him couldn’t have gotten on the phone and ordered a truck load of water and supplies from a grocery store a few hundred miles north?
Asleep at the wheel indeed.
Charity Hospital, known really as Big Charity, but officially called the Medical Center of Louisiana at New Orleans is (was) run by the Lousiana State University system. It was the oldest continuously operated hospital in the U.S. up until last week. Yes, it's government run; but by the LSU system. It received funds from donations and from reimbursements for Medicaid and Medicare. New Orleans had, until last week, ranked 5th highest in the U.S. in terms of the percentage of its population without health insurance, and New Orleans was the 4th most impoverished city in the U.S. as of last week. Charity was the hospital of last resort, as opposed to the much more expensive private Tulane Hospital.
For three days NO was told that a calls 4 or 5 hurricane was going to hit. They also knew that the levies werent designed to survive such a storm. They also had an evacutation plan. They never did squat to implement it. The Mayor is a moron. This is what happens in a state where they count on the government to take care of them.
LOL! From now on every citizen should build his own levee! Why didn't they think of it before? Sorry, it is becoming impossible to take you serious anymore, Gawain.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gawain of Orkeny
I suggest its you who shouldnt be taken seriously anymore. If you lived somewhere where they said if a force 4 hurricane hits you ciity will be under water and were told a force 4 or 5 hurricane was headed there would you just stay there? If you were the mayor would you evacuate the place or not? They knew the levies wouldnt hold and yet they stayed. The Mayor knew and yet didnt put into effect the evacutaion plan at all.All I can say is their lucky the storm veered away at the last minute.Quote:
LOL! From now on every citizen should build his own levee! Why didn't they think of it before? Sorry, it is becoming impossible to take you serious anymore, Gawain.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simon Appleton
Oh boy, sounds like I assumed too much. The authorities could not even evacuate a hospital, even after the flood? :furious3:Quote:
Originally Posted by Aenlic
Who would 'they' be? Ah, the evil government! I thought you would never rely on the goverment, Gawain?Quote:
Originally Posted by Gawain of Orkeny
Really, nearly everything you have posted about Katrina has been self-defeating. Remember that paranoid Boontz-blog you quoted? The one with the racist undertones that said the NO authorities demanded that everyone hand in their guns when they entered the Superdome so they would be easy prey for gangs and rapists? Man, oh man... :no:
I doubt that there was, or is, any racist component.
As to whether class plays into it, the only demonstrable truth is that those lacking the personal resources to evacuate (for whatever reason) were in the greatest danger.
Planning:
Apparently, NO had a written evac/hurricane plan ready to go. Known time required for complete evacuation -- included the disadvantaged and hospitalized -- was 72 hours from the mayor's "GO" signal. The mayor's emergency power would have been sufficient to declare the evac provided that the state of emergency had been acknowledged.
Unfortunately, the plan wasn't implemented and may not have been well known to anyone outside the NO government committee that developed it. SNAFU then became FUBAR when the levees went.
Seamus
If you didnt rely on them at all there would be no levies and no disaster thats true. Im talking about engineers here not the government. I also never said to neve ely on the govenment. Thats a stupid statement. Relying on them as little as possible though is another matter.Quote:
Who would 'they' be? Ah, the evil government! I thought you would never rely on the goverment, Gawain?
Says youQuote:
Really, nearly everything you have posted about Katrina has been self-defeating.
You sound like the racist here. He never mentioned race.Quote:
Really, nearly everything you have posted about Katrina has been self-defeating. Remember that paranoid Boontz-blog you quoted? The one with the racist undertones that said the NO authorities demanded that everyone hand in their guns when they entered the Superdome so they would be easy prey for gangs and rapists? Man, oh man...
Apparently both the State and the City had one. This is the Louisiana plan. I can't seem to find the City of New Orleans plan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
Here is a line-up of crucial episodes by the BBC which is still tentative, I guess, in the sense that reporters don't know what went on behind the screens. It is being updated once a day.
Multiple failures caused relief crisis
Analysis
By Paul Reynolds
World Affairs correspondent, BBC News website
The breakdown of the relief operation in New Orleans was the result of multiple failures by city, state and federal authorities.
Evacuation at last, but why so late?
There was no one cause. The failures began long before the hurricane with a gamble that a Category Four or Five hurricane would not strike New Orleans.
They continued with an inadequate evacuation plan and culminated in a relief effort hampered by lack of planning, supplies and manpower, and a breakdown in communications of the most basic sort.
On top of all this, there is the question of whether an earlier intervention by President Bush could have a made a big difference.
The planning
Before Hurricane Katrina struck, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) was confident that it was ready. Its director, Michael Brown, said: "Fema has pre-positioned many assets including ice, water, food and rescue teams to move into the stricken areas as soon as it is safe to do so."
Mr Brown even told the Associated Press news agency that the evacuation had gone well. "I was impressed with the evacuation, once it was ordered it was very smooth," he said.
Yet on Saturday 28 August, the day before the evacuation was ordered, Mr Brown did not say that people should leave the city. All he said was:
"There's still time to take action now, but you must be prepared and take shelter and other emergency precautions immediately."This has made Fema appear complacent in the period immediately before the hurricane arrived. If it did not expect the worst, it would not have prepared for the worst.
The Brown statement went out on the same day that the National Hurricane Center was warning that Katrina was strengthening to the top Category Five. Everyone knew the dangers of a Category Five. A Fema exercise last year called "Hurricane Pam" had looked at a Category Three, and that was bad enough.
The evacuation
It was announced at a news conference by the Mayor Ray Nagin on Sunday 28 August, less than 24 hours before the hurricane struck early the next morning.
The question has to be asked: Why was it not ordered earlier?
The Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco said at the same news conference that President Bush had called and personally appealed for a mandatory evacuation.
The night before, National Hurricane Director Max Mayfield had called Mayor Nagin to tell him that an evacuation was needed. Why were these calls necessary?
School buses still lined up after the hurricane
Again, as with Fema, the New Orleans mayor should have known that on the Saturday, Katrina was strengthening to Five.
It was already clear on the Sunday that the evacuation would not cover many of the poor, the sick and those who did not pay heed.
The mayor said people going to the Superdome, a sports venue named as an alternative destination for those unable to leave, should bring supplies for several days. He also said police could commandeer any vehicle for the evacuation.
But how much support was there at the Superdome? And how much city transport was actually used? There is a photo showing city school buses still lined up, in waterlogged parking lots, after the hurricane.
There are questions for the mayor, dubbed heroic by some, to answer.
The relief operation
The scenes which most shocked the world were at the Superdome and the nearby Convention Center. Yet it turns out that neither Mr Brown nor his boss, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, knew about the crises there until Thursday.
This, despite numerous television reports from the scene. It was not until Friday that the first relief convoy arrived.
"It was midday Tuesday that I became aware of the fact that there was no possibility of plugging the gap, and that essentially the lake was going to drain into the city."
Michael Chertoff, Homeland Security Secretary
"The very day that this emerged in the press, I was on a video conference with all the officials, including state and local officials. And nobody, none of the state and local officials or anybody else, was talking about a Convention Center," Chertoff told CNN. Note how he blames local officials.
Nor did he know about the breach in the floodwalls until a day later.
"It was midday Tuesday that I became aware of the fact that there was no possibility of plugging the gap, and that essentially the lake was going to drain into the city," he said on NBC.
Other, more successful operations, notably the airlift by the Coast Guard, should be acknowledged.
And in a disaster area the size of Great Britain, resources were stretched.
But ironically the failure at the Convention Center would have been fairly easy to put right. Reporters drove there without problems. One took a taxi.
What, one wonders, was Fema/the mayor's office/the governor's office doing while all that was played out on live TV?
One lesson agencies might want to learn is that someone senior should do nothing but monitor TV.
Some of this might explain why people at the Superdome and the Convention Center had to wait so long. It does not explain why communications were not better.
Another sign of slowness was that the Department of Homeland Security did not issue the first ever declaration of an "incident of national significance" until the Wednesday. Such a declaration allows the federal government a greater role in taking decisions.
One lesson agencies might want to learn is that someone senior should do nothing but monitor TV
In fact, the arguments between federal and state authorities about who was able to do what is another part of this story.
The Department of Homeland Security said the local authorities were inadequate. The locals responded that Fema had been obstructive - it had, for example, stopped three truckloads of water sent by the store Wal-Mart. And so on.
It took days to sort out who should send troops and from where.
Indeed, the intricacies of the various responsibilties of state and federal authorities do not always allow for quick decision making, though that did not stop rapid action in New York City on 9/11.
Nor does Governor Blanco escape criticism. It took until Thursday, for example, for her to sign an order releasing school buses to move the evacuees.
The president's response
Mr Bush has been blamed for failing to rise to the occasion. His critics argue that he took too long to get back to Washington and did not provide the inspirational leadership needed at such a time. Nor, it is said, did he intervene early enough to get things moving.
Washington Post correspondent Dan Balz concluded:
"Anger has been focused on Bush and his administration to a degree unprecedented in his presidency. Senator Mary Landrieu [a Louisiana Democrat] said in an ABC News interview that aired Sunday that she would consider punching the president and others for their response to what happened there. Local officials, some in tears, have angrily accused the administration of callousness and negligence."
The president's defenders point out that it was he who urged an evacuation of New Orleans (he has no legal power to order one) and that he did acknowledge the "unacceptable" pace of the relief effort. Further, they say that aid is now flowing and reconstruction will take place.
Another issue for Mr Bush is why Michael Brown was appointed director of Fema. He had previously been its deputy and had been hired as its general counsel by the director Joe Allbaugh, George Bush's chief of staff when he was Texas governor. Mr Brown, a lawyer from Oklahoma, played a role in studying the government's response to national emergencies. Before that he had run the Arab horse association.
Senator Hillary Clinton has said that Fema should be removed from the Homeland Security Department and made an independent agency again.
The gamble
When Hurricane Camille, a rare top Category Five storm, hit Mississippi in 1969, just missing New Orleans, the levees around the city were strengthened - but only enough to protect against a Category Three hurricane.
The gamble was taken that another Category Five would not threaten New Orleans anytime soon. This attitude prevailed among successive administrations.
Lt General Carl Strock, the Army Corps of Engineers commander, admitted that there was a collective mindset - that New Orleans would not be hit. Washington rolled the dice, he said.
After flooding in 1995, the existing system was improved. However, the sums were relatively small. About $500m was spent over the next 10 years.
From 2003 onwards, the Bush administration cut funds amid charges from the Army Corps of Engineers that the money was transferred to Iraq instead. The latest annual budget was cut from $36.5m to $10.4m.
A study to examine defences against a category Four or Five storm was proposed, at a cost of $4m. The Times-Picayune quoted the Army Corps of Engineers project manager Al Naomi as saying: "The Iraq war forced the Bush administration to order the New Orleans district office not to begin any new studies."
But in any event, there was no plan for a major strengthening. This would have taken billions of dollars and many years.
And an Army Corps of Engineers spokeswoman, Connie Gillette, said there had never been any plans or funds to improve those floodwalls which had failed.
Update: a reader has pointed out a quote in the New York Times indicating that the failed floodwalls had in fact previously been strengthened:
'"Shea Penland, director of the Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of New Orleans, said [it] was particularly surprising because the break was "along a section that was just upgraded." "It did not have an earthen levee," Dr. Penland said. "It had a vertical concrete wall several feel thick."' It is a long and complex chain of responsibility.
All these issues, and many more, will now be the subject of congressional and other inquiries.
I fail to see how this has anything to do with a hostility towards government Adrian. Who was hostile towards government, the people who evacuated or the people who did as they were told and went to the superdome?
On the contrary, it has everything to do with the incompetency of the local government. Making it bigger does not solve this problem.
PS - First you pushed gun control and now you are pushing bigger government.. I sense a bit of an agenda. ~;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
Where did you get that 12 hour estimate from? It takes 12 hours just to get started on an evacuation of that scale. Many people will be at work--yes, even on Saturday and Sunday as quite a few of the industries are 24 hour operations with shifts, plus the employers had to prepare for the storm--you don't just flip an off switch on a refinery. There were something like 1.5 million in the whole area that had to evacuate, often using the same routes. And New Orleans is more remote than many cities because of the river, Gulf, and bayous. Even those who evacuated the coast often still ended up in areas that were hard hit and out of power, gas, etc.
Plus, you need to understand that people tried to board up/prep their homes before they left. When you hear a storm is coming you begin prepping your house and gathering stuff to leave. It isn't like you hop in your car immediately.
FEMA's own test scenario showed that many would be unable to evacuate, lacking transport. Institutions and hospitals could not be emptied easily, and there were not enough buses, nor people to manage the effort. Tourists got trapped when the airlines quit flying and all rental cars/vans/buses were already committed.
The webcams showed the roads packed on Sunday evening when I looked so I don't see how what many believe is true: that everyone even with cars who wanted could have gotten out. My sister-in-law weathered the storm in Baton Rouge because her responsibilities prevented her from being able to consider leaving until Sunday afternoon, at which time the roads were full.
I suspect you way overestimate the availability of buses in a given area of the U.S., you are probably thinking in terms of European bus to populace ratios, but admittedly that is just speculation on my part. To get enough buses, they would have had to have been marshalled from outside New Orleans at least 24 hours before the storm. While the eye of the storm hit at 7AM Monday, those causeways and highways would have been impassable many hours before that. (I don't know when/if they were actually closed but suspect well before midnight.)
I mean the hostility against government that began with Ronald Reagan, based on the notion that the govenment is the citizen's worst nightmare. Cut-backs, tax cuts or tax ceilings, privatisations and outsourcing of government tasks or staff to the private sector, together with the adverse rhetoric of 'Who needs government?' have led to an erosion of the government's sense of purpose. Poor Mr Brown's failure over the past week is not just the result of his incompetence. It is also the result of a situation where he was faced with calls for greater domestic terrorism preparedness on the one hand, and years of funding cuts, personnel departures and FEMA's downgrading from a cabinet-level agency to a subordinate department of Homeland Security on the other hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by PanzerJager
All of them were, and I guess all of them feel let down. Even those who survived will wonder why those levees were never upgraded.Quote:
Who was hostile towards government, the people who evacuated or the people who did as they were told and went to the superdome?
Well spotted. I actually have political views of my own. What amazes me is that views are suddenly called 'agendas'. Are you suspecting me of planning to run for U.S. Senator or something? ~:rolleyes:Quote:
PS - First you pushed gun control and now you are pushing bigger government.. I sense a bit of an agenda. ~;)
I believe they would have also been the “media” and everyone listens to them. ~;)Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
There are some major errors in the early time line for that BBC report. It looks like parts of it are confusing Greenwich time/dates with local time/dates. Evacuation was ordered by Nagin on the afternoon of the 27th in New Orleans. It was made mandatory at 9 AM on the 28th--the BBC appears to have confused the two and ignored the initial evacuation calls. The situation did worsen rapidly from the initial impressions and by late Saturday it had shifted into worst fear mode. (Prior to that the storm path shifted from the Florida panhandle to New Orleans rapidly as well.)Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
The impression I had at the time was that even though everyone realised this one could be a problem, it went from Category 1 to Category 5 so fast, and shifted paths so fundamentally, that the apparatus of evacuation was in "catch-up" mode.
By the time Bush and the LA governor called for a mandatory it was already in place... By noon the contraflow traffic system was established. This still would have given less than 12 hours of effective evacuation time at max capacity.
According to CNN, Nagin advised evacuation on Saturday 27 and made it mandatory at 10 am on Sunday. Blanco and Barbour had already declared emergency status on Friday 26 around 4 pm.Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Harvest
As for evacuation times, the rule of thumb in emergency situations in modern cities is 4 times the normal time needed to leave a city, provided of course that exit roads are not blocked (one-way outbound traffic must be guaranteed by traffic control) and public transport is available for those without cars. Assuming the normal time to be an average of 2 hours, that makes 8 hours. Plus 4 for packing and other eventualitiesm that makes twelve. However, you are probably right that the metropolitan area is particularly difficult to evacuate. In the Louisiana Hurricane Evacuation Plan it says:
- The Greater New Orleans Metropolitan Area represents a difficult
evacuation problem due to the large population and it’s unique layout.- This area is located in a floodplain much of which lies below sea level
and is surrounded by an extensive marine estuarine system of lakes,
canals, bayous, the Gulf of Mexico and the Mississippi River. Some
parish storm drainage systems discharge into area waterways. High
water levels would impede adequate pumping and prevent relief against
flooding from heavy rainfall.- It will take a long time to evacuate large numbers of people from the
Region.- The road systems used for evacuations are limited, and many of the
roadways are near bodies of water and susceptible to flooding.
Mind you, three-quarter of residents of the wider area did get out in time. There were traffic jams, as there always are, but they were resolved as they always are. Bo broken bridges, no flooded roads. Most people drove out along the assigned E-roads by private means as the Plan states in its list of 'Assumptions':
- The primary means of hurricane evacuation will be personal vehicles.
School and municipal buses, government-owned vehicles and vehicles
provided by volunteer agencies may be used to provide transportation
for individuals who lack transportation and require assistance in
evacuating.
Those left behind were in many cases literally left behind. There were no buses. In the Plan's paragraph on 'Recommended Evacuation' (the stage preceding mandatory evacuation) one of the first items mentioned is this:
- Mobilize parish/local transportation to assist persons who
lack transportation or who have mobility problems.
I keep wondering where those buses were. Maybe you are right and it is just because I am a European. But they were part of the plan...
To address Adrian and Red Harvests points.
Well last time I took a road trip down to New Orleans - I saw only three ways into the city. One was from the West on I-10 over the swamp. THe other was also I-10 from the east over the lake and a swamp. And a two lane road that was from the north - again over a swamp. One can not think of evacuation of New Orleans in the context of any European or any other United States City. New Orleans has very limited access points by the means of a ground road network. One of those ways out of the city is directlty into the storm. That left the two other ways that I know of. There might be others - but New Orleans is not a city with multiple exits in multiple directions as seen in any other city in the United States.
.
Nonetheless, eighty percent of inhabitants made it out of the city between Saturday afternoon and Monday morning. The other twenty percent were either left behind or determined to stay behind. Based on the reports we are getting about the latter (who are now being coaxed out of their homes one by one) many of those stayed behind to protect their property (homes, shops, workplaces, cars and other collectibles) because they had no confidence that the government would be able to prevent looting in the first place.Quote:
Originally Posted by Redleg
I'm not sure that is correct. At that time the storm was not that strong and was over Florida. It was 8AM Saturday when it started to really strengthen. There was a meeting about Hurricane Cindy (previous month) about the time you report, and an initial emergency declaration letter was sent to Bush by Blanco sometime that day (likely as a result of some of the experiences with Cindy and the meeting.)Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
They were part of the plan, but they were not available in sufficient number. This was a recognized deficiency in the FEMA test run. It was already expected that a substantial portion of the population would be unable to get out.Quote:
- Mobilize parish/local transportation to assist persons who
lack transportation or who have mobility problems.
I keep wondering where those buses were. Maybe you are right and it is just because I am a European. But they were part of the plan...
You not only must have the buses (and drivers)--no small task in a city with such a large poor population--but you must also have TIME. You can't collect and load and get out instantly. Lacking time, local officials moved those who could not get out by BUS to the Superdome. This was a collection effort that was underway to use what buses they had.
As I've also said, I saw quite a few buses leaving the city in webcams during the Sunday evacaution.
Note: "Adised evacuation" = voluntary vacuation. The U.S. doesn't typically go to mandatory right away. People were starting to respond, but it isn't instantaneous.
As for why New Orleans might not have responded as vigorously: they had a levee that was good to Category 3. Having that back up makes decision making slower and more complex. Exactly when do you switch from "ride it out" to "head for the hills?"
Curfew was at 6 PM on Sunday, so with hurricane force winds expected by midnight, I'll bet vehicular traffic had been halted by 9 PM. No way would that be enough time. Not even close.
I still think you are underestimating human resilience and determination. Eighty percent made it out of the city in time. Another ten percent could have made it if there had been enough buses (yes, Red Harvest, obviously with drivers in them).Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Harvest
Apparently the mayor initially wasn't informed of the areas of last refuge such as the Dome, the Goveror was informed much later and Fema was informed only on Thursday. There should be better feedback loops in future, ones that take into account the fact that local authorities are unilkely to expose their weak spots or direct outside (federal, press) attention to the local cupboards with the most corpses in them.
Monday morning doesn't figure in at all. There could not have been any substantial traffic by Sunday midnight. I remember checking a webcam that evening and not a single vehicle was visible when I checked. Most likely it ended at least 3 hours before midnight. In essense, you have a window of about 30 hours total for the evacuation. That's not much. The easily mobile who understood the gravity of the situation did get out as a result. Others could not.Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
As Redleg noted: New Orleans is a special case like few other cities The closest comparison that comes to mind is Seattle...if it has an "event" related to Mt. Ranier, sections would be trapped in congested North-South corridors.
but New Orleans is not a city with multiple exits in multiple directions as seen in any other city in the United States.
New Orleans is just the same as any other city /town /village on the coast Redleg . In fact some cities would have even less major roadways .
Cutting the levee budget was an easy sell I'd wager. Many conservatives didn't want to spend the money and environmentalist lefties railed against larger levee systems for their own reasons. No one was interested in investing more resources on the levees- even the NY Times called the project bad legislation and a waste of money.Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
Once again: eighty percent made it, no matter how many difficulties you perceive. And perhaps another ten percent would have made it if...Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Harvest
Of course we are speaking in normative terms. If you have a President who declares that 'nobody had expected those levees to break' it becomes a whole different game. :embarassed:
I have looked into their plan for comparison and it looks a darn sight better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Harvest
It appears that many actually did take refuge in shelters of last resort. They took refuge, but weren't evacuated promptly.Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
The drivers comment wasn't smart alecky, it was an implication of the need for time. You have to assemble the folks and give them instructions, routes, etc. Time was THE commodity in short supply. When you start trying to work backwards in time on this, you quickly run out of it.
That's not accurate. The Dome was being used fairly early on, that was planned in advance, and I remember that people had been backed up waiting for 6 hours as the buses were collecting people. Anyone watching the news knew about many of these shelters several days before FEMA did. That's why several of the reporters ripped into Brown when he said they didn't know until Thursday.Quote:
Apparently the mayor initially wasn't informed of the areas of last refuge such as the Dome, the Goveror was informed much later and Fema was informed only on Thursday.
The Feds didn't even make an effort to get fuel to the emergency generators in hospitals on time. Come on. It's not like any of the hospitals moved overnight...and everyone knew they were without regular grid power. All in all it is clear that the Feds had no prioritized list. They were winging it...very slowly.
Local command and communication had been destoryed by the storm. No surprise there either. You can't expect them to be doing many missions with so few people, resources, and without communication infrastructure.
And ~10% were in fact moved to shelters by buses/foot traffic in the time available. And 10% couldn't/wouldn't get out in the time available. So what is the point? Unless you had the bus plan worked out well in advance and brought in many OUTSIDE buses (meaning it was not local) and had plenty of people to facilitate moving people onto the buses...you still had a huge problem. You also have to move past "mandatory" to "forced" requiring lots of outside law enforcement. Whether you leave behind 10 or 20% you still have a massive number left behind, and you must be planning to supply them promptly until you can evacuate them.Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
There were plenty including the President and his appointees who seem to have ignored the obvious. I expected much of the city to be swamped on landfall--fortunately the track shifted East and the storm weakened a little. I still think New Orleans was comparitively "lucky" with regards to the storm iteslf. That is why the poor response to the easily foreseen flooding is so frustrating and frightening. This could have been far worse, and nobody outside was prepared except the Coast Guard.Quote:
Of course we are speaking in normative terms. If you have a President who declares that 'nobody had expected those levees to break' it becomes a whole different game. :embarassed:
Indeed. It also doesn't help their cause when they are a Democratic bastion in an era of GOP rule. (Same would be true if roles were reversed of course, ugliness of partisan politics.) Some folks resist infrastructure improvements as a matter of course. They will gladly shell out money for the military, but not for infrastructure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiahou
The "environmnetalist lefties" are actually correct to a degree. There is some need to end the loss of the barrier/wetlands area that has resulted from some of the river control. I'm not well informed on how this could be done, but the loss of these areas does make inhabited areas more vulnerable to big storms.
The point is there would possibly have been no Superdome tragedy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Harvest
There are 7.725 school buses in the State of Louisiana.
Press Release
Louisiana Governor's Office
Date: 9/1/2005
Governor Blanco Announces Executive Order
Baton Rouge, LA— Governor Blanco today announced the following Executive Order:
Executive Order NO. KBB 2005- 31- provides that pursuant to the Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act, R.S. 29:721, et seq., grants emergency powers to the governor, where, she has in consultation with school superintendents, utilized public school buses for transportation of Hurricane Katrina evacuees. As you are aware most public school districts will not begin school until Tuesday, September 6th 2005.
Only on Thursday, my man -- five full days after recommended evacuation was proclaimed.
Care to place a wager on that - New Orleans is in a swamp and in a depression. Not many cities have that constraint. You might want to look at a map of the city and the routes before you attempt to lecture. Then you might want to look at cities in the size range of New Orleans - different size towns and cities require different resources in which to evacuate the citizens.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribesman
Not many cities have over 20 miles of bridges to cross to get to the city either.
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=LA&zipcode=
Now if you look at Houston - A very large city - I know of 5 routes into the city - three of them being major Highways. The map for mapquest shows even more.
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=Tx&zipcode=
Here is Mobile, Alabama
Look how many major highways plus the numerous state and county roads that lead out of the city.
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=Al&zipcode=
Here is Galveston Texas - a city that was hit several times by hurricanes
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=TX&zipcode=
Here is one for a small town on the east coast in Georgia
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=ga&zipcode=
How about Charleston
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp...te=ga&zipcode=
Looks like three routs for Charleston - two along the coast and one major highway going inland. I could zoom it even farther down and find a few state and county routs.
Again New Orleans is an unique case - there are a few major towns and cities that have the exact same conditions for road networks for evacuation - but its not a common thing like your stating here Tribesman
Notice the difference between all of them Tribesman I won't even go into the the routes out of the West Coast cities. Nor will I go into the differences of sizes, except to state a town or small city of less then 50,000 could be evacuated using a single route if it is organized, A city of 50,000 to 200,000 would begin to have difficultily to evacuate along a single route if it was not organized. A city the size of New Orleans reduced by at least one route would find it difficult to evacuate next to impossible if it was not organized and managed.
The point being is that the Mayor of New Orleans had the obligation to insure the evacuation was organized when he ordered it. The governor of Louisana had the obligation to help the second the city asked for it. The Federal Government had the obligation to activate the FEMA chain the minute the State asked for help. Can anyone state that all three levels of government accomplished their tasks in the manner in which they claimed prior to the event?
I know what I think - all three levels failed. All three failed to consider the unique circumstances of New Orleans in their planning process or worse yet they minimized the difficulty involved (and this is what I believe) - in in their complacency they failed the people of the city of New Orleans misarbly
You are correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Harvest
I would say the Tacoma area would be a more valid comprasion. Seattle would still have a few East corridores to move along - however Tocama only has north - south if Mt Raineer ever goes.Quote:
As Redleg noted: New Orleans is a special case like few other cities The closest comparison that comes to mind is Seattle...if it has an "event" related to Mt. Ranier, sections would be trapped in congested North-South corridors.
I don't think there is any intentional, large scale racial element to the relief effort. Like other people have pointed out, it's more of a class thing.
The way the politicians and the media react does however seem to be quite racist. I simply don't understand how politicians can act so cool when something like this happens, I do see this as a sign that there is something wrong with the system. A politician is supposed to stand for all the people under his care, not just the likely voters.
Adrian I really don't see how this has anything to do with big government versus small government. It has everything to with bad government however. The government (whether it be state city or federal) was responsible for the safety of the citizens, they neglected their responsibility. If it were up to me I'd have every one in the chain of command on trial for criminal neglect (or whatever it's called) on a few thousand cases.
Disasters like this have happened in a lot of places, no matter how the media likes to put the spotlight on this event. It is very rare however, to see it handled in such a bad way. I at least hope a lot of money can be raised to help those poor people rebuild their lives. I also hope that money gets to be spend in the right places. I fear a lot of companies involved in the reconstruction will charge a nice little overhead for themselves, just like in Iraq. This however is another issue, and one that does relate to a small government. For another time perhaps....
[QUOTE=doc_bean]Well then perhaps the class has sticked to the race. ~:confused:Quote:
I don't think there is any intentional, large scale racial element to the relief effort. Like other people have pointed out, it's more of a class thing.
Well then you don't understand politics. The politicians only think on their next reelection and act oriented for that, they specially favour those who helped them to achieve power, wheter they're voters or corporations, the system works that way.Quote:
The way the politicians and the media react does however seem to be quite racist. I simply don't understand how politicians can act so cool when something like this happens, I do see this as a sign that there is something wrong with the system. A politician is supposed to stand for all the people under his care, not just the likely voters.
Well here, saving all distances, happened the same. Rich people (the great majority) with minimal problems (like a short cut on the electricity suministre) were helped before the ones dying in Santa Fe. This classing system must be stoped sometime earlier or later, but it's notoriously terrible.Quote:
Disasters like this have happened in a lot of places, no matter how the media likes to put the spotlight on this event. It is very rare however, to see it handled in such a bad way. I at least hope a lot of money can be raised to help those poor people rebuild their lives. I also hope that money gets to be spend in the right places. I fear a lot of companies involved in the reconstruction will charge a nice little overhead for themselves, just like in Iraq. This however is another issue, and one that does relate to a small government. For another time perhaps....
Here is some of New Orleans "Finest" "controlling" looters...
http://www.zippyvideos.com/891102377...ng-in-walmart/
Unbelievable, I hope they get athletes foot from those shoes!!! :furious3:
Eh, nm.
True, I was actually thinking more of Tacoma than Seattle when I said it, as I've spent more time in the vicinity of it (trying to get in and out of Mccord on space available to/from Alaska.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Redleg
Well you were not to far off about Seattle either though. Since their is really only one pass that has a major highway through it and its got a lot of hills and one tunnel. I think if Raineer ever blew I-90 would also me shut down given the temors that will most likely follow.Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Harvest
That leaves only going north up the I-5 and the Pacific Coast Highway.
Problem is, this wasn't already in place. Even if you have it in place you don't have much time. It needs coordination at state and local level to feed in buses. I'm guessing you need about 2,000 of these buses, with driver, and a guide/security/communications on each one to get the last 20% in New Orleans alone. Turnaround time from call up is probably on the order of 24 hours at best, based on call up time/organization time, travel time, load/collection time, and actual getting the heck out of dodge time (more than 6 hours itself.) Remember, you also have to route them to avoid contraflow congestion etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianII
80/20 rule would seem to apply to evacuation. The first 80% won't take much time, the last 20% will require 80% of the effort.
This would need to be repeated for many smaller cities in the area. I believe this is the way we need to go, but it isn't something we are going to be able to do successfully without some forethought. We need to be doing this sort of planning all along the coast, the Mississippi, fault zones, volcanically active areas, etc. It's not so monumental as it sounds once a few model systems are worked out.
Wow, that's something alright. ~:eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by Devastatin Dave
So much for being good role models. I hope they at least got to use their nightsticks/badges to reserve the good stuff for themselves.....
You know, when this is all over, I'd be suprised if any of them are disciplined for it.
I would like to know something: Is this the kind of looting that has caused the reaction of "shoot the looters"?
Actually, if the system would work like it was supposed to, the people who got neglected would vote for someone else next election, ensuring that the politician who wasn't concerned with their needs wouldn't get reelected.Quote:
Originally Posted by Soulforged
Even if that didn't happen, the people who do vote should be so outraged at the behaviour of their representatives that they won't vote for them anymore either.
Do you think the mayor of New Orleans has a good shot at reelection ? I doubt it.
It seems that some of the politicians who are supposed to be responsible know their career is over and now just don't care anymore. Others (in Congress for instance) know they won't be held accountable personally, and Bush of course, can't get reelected anymore.
Everyone is just looking after their own arse, no one cares about the greater good of society :furious3:
I don't think so, a lot more violent looting has taken place, thios video is only about what happened on the first day...Quote:
Originally Posted by Soulforged
A slight detour back to the subject of people's "agendas" and whether its all the fault of big government. (Eh? Whatever)
In one of these threads, someone asked, what was the free market solution to rebuilding NO. By a curious coincidence, (the Org asks, the BBC answers) a congressman interviewed on the BBC on Monday answered exactly that question. He instanced the rebuilding of, I think a highway, it may have been a bridge, somewhere in california. He said that they had been told it would take two years, but by removing red tape and incentivising the contractor it got done in six months.
I despair. Consider:
Presumably even Mr Free Market agrees that bridges and highways should be built to certain specifications. So that, you know, they don't fall down. And those specifications need to be checked by engineers. Government engineers. So all we are arguing about is how much "red tape" there should be. OK, reasonable people may differ on the subject, but its not a profound point.
"Incentivising" contractors means paying them more money to do the job quicker. Taxpayers money, incidentally. Speeding up jobs by paying more does not strike me as a major political insight either.
The REAL free market solution is to allow anyone who wants to to build a bridge anywhere, and allow motorists to choose between them on the basis of the level of toll and how likely the bridge is to fall down due to cost cutting in its construction. Strangely enough no one seems to be advocating this, possibly because it is obviously insane.
Far from the eccentric view that this all proves that government is a bad thing, I have to say the scenes from NO really cause me to question this anti-government orthodoxy. As I understand it, the logic seems to be that incompetent government has failed, therefore the answer is, not better government, but no government. Eh? Bonkers.
And that's from someone who is not ashamed to say he thought both Reagan and Thatcher were, on the whole, good news so don't give me any nonsense about leftist agendas.
Edit
OT, I read in the papers this morning that people are upset that someone in the States has printed a load of T shirts reading "I looted New Orleans and all I got was 30 of these lousy T shirts"
Obviously I am a sick person because I thought that was quite funny, myself.
Exactly. I never pleaded for big government in the first place. And doubling the size of a bad government is probably not going to make it much better (or worse, for that matter).Quote:
Originally Posted by doc_bean
What is essential is peoples' notion of the nature and extent of the common good that a government is supposed to safeguard and enhance. If this notion is minimalist, the end result is a minimal government (a government that leaves children behind, so to speak).
- English AssassinQuote:
In one of these threads, someone asked, what was the free market solution to rebuilding NO. By a curious coincidence, (the Org asks, the BBC answers)...
Yeah, that keeps happening. Adrian II, in Post #34 in this thread trots out the Louisiana State Emergency Action Plan, quoting the relevant evacuation bits. 3 hours later, Bryan Jennings, anchorman for NBC News, uses the same document and references the same entries in his analysis of "what (might have) went wrong". Eerie.
Meanwhile, in an obviously clerical error that would be comedic, where lives not at stake: FEMA sends evac's to wrong city
Happens to the best of us. The Herald Trib has a decent article today (originally from the new York Times I believe) about Dutch coastal defences. What it smoothes over (for lack of space) is the total screw-up during the Dutch flooding disaster in 1953. But what it mentions is that nature is always full of surprises and rarely follows a man-made scenario.Now we have decent defenses, but it took us a while. We were the ones who invented dykes and polders, right? So we reckoned in 1953 that the nation was prepared for a major hurricane + high tide. Yeah right...Quote:
Originally Posted by KukriKhan
http://www.kustgids.nl/1953/ramp1.jpg
That is funny.Quote:
Originally Posted by English assassin