The French Presidential contest

I wonder if some of our Gallic friends would be so kind as to give a view on the presidential election now that we are only two months out?

Mme Royal had her television presentation last night, and from what I understand from the papers, had a solid but not earth-shaking performance. Since the preceding month seems to have been one of unmitigated disaster for her, is she now sunk?

Nicolas Sarkozy seems simply to be watching her campaign implode, but is this the case? Has he been put under pressure yet - and will he be?

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time - but I do read that Francois Bayrou may be more of a dark horse than anticipated. Mind you, that's been said before.

I can't believe that Sarkozy has it all wrapped up already, despite Royal's pratfalls (which I think elicit some fairly serious concerns about her competence). But reading about what's going on doesn't seem to give me a satisfactory insight into what is really going on over there - and my French friends are no help, being pretty determined in their existing views.

Just to show I'm a good European, I'll trade you insights into the forthcoming Irish elections - good for overcoming insomnia and as an emetic. :wink:

Mme Royal had her television presentation last night, and from what I understand from the papers, had a solid but not earth-shaking performance. Since the preceding month seems to have been one of unmitigated disaster for her, is she now sunk?
She survived J'ai une question à vous poser. That I would call it 'survive' says a lot about her position. She peaked too early, got all that hype surrounding her last autumn, only for people to realise that she didn't have a program or anything, just her looks, freshness and femininity. (lots of it though :sweatdrop: )
In place of a solid program, she said she would 'listen' to the people. Meh.

Then when she finally came up with a program last month, it consisted of 100 points. Well meh again. She is trying too hard to please everybody, ending up pleasing nobody in particular. She can't even rally her own base like this.

Then there were all these blunders lately. :wall:
China has a 'fast' judiciary system, Israel's occupation of Palestine is akin to the nazi occupation of France, she doesn't realise the difference between civil and military nuclear power. The one blunder I actually liked of her was her not having a clue about how many nuclear subs France has. Finally, maybe we'll get a president who's not obsessed with the more phallic symbols of the Republic.

I'm struggling with voting for a woman just to get a woman on top for change. I would desperatly love to see a female president. But I couldn't seriously vote for someone based solely on his or her gender. Or maybe I just might. Don't know yet.

Nicolas Sarkozy seems simply to be watching her campaign implode, but is this the case? Has he been put under pressure yet - and will he be?
Le petit Nicolas is always under pressure and never intimidated by it. The clever bastard is currently keeping a somewhat low profile and is waiting for Ségo's campaign to implode.

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time
But..but..there is no traditional left anymore. They're confused, tiny and passé. :wavesgoodby:

I do read that Francois Bayrou may be more of a dark horse than anticipated.
A dark horse? The next president of the Republic you mean. :knight:

Okay, I'm afraid not.

I'll vote François Bayrou in the first round. For support and to hopefully get him in second place. If he doesn't make it, I'll let my mood decide between Ségo and Sarko. If I'm in a good mood and the sun is shining, it's Ségo. Else it's Sarko.

Mme Royal had her television presentation last night, and from what I understand from the papers, had a solid but not earth-shaking performance. Since the preceding month seems to have been one of unmitigated disaster for her, is she now sunk?I didn’t watch it, if it was on TV5, I don’t know. However, her campaign lack of muscles. She was not help by the journalists reporting her small gaffes and ignoring Sarkosy’s one very carefully, like the one when he regretted France didn’t participated in Iraq’s war at the same moment when the USA started to regret it…

Nicolas Sarkozy seems simply to be watching her campaign implode, but is this the case? Has he been put under pressure yet - and will he be? Do not underestimate her. She arrived at this level of politic because she is ambitious, cunning and without mercy…
Sarkozy aswell is a taff opponent, but things can change in election, fast. We’ve got the experience of Balladur: every political commentators gave him as the future president and he didn’t reach the second tour…. Same story with Jospin and the unexpected appearance of Le Pen from the Extreme Right on the scene…

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time - but I do read that Francois Bayrou may be more of a dark horse than anticipated. Mind you, that's been said before.
Well, as a old lefty, I have difficulty to believe in this Left-Caviar… I won’t vote for Sarkozy or Bayrou (even if I like what he is saying. The only problem is I remember with who he voted in the Assemblée,..).
I will perhaps abstain… Both candidates have roughly the same agenda; Sarkozy is more honest about it in his intentions to rip-off the French from what theirs parents and grand-parents built and to sell it to his friends…
The campaign is about communications and glamour… I want Victor Hugo, Blum, Clemenceau… I want ideals, ideas, I want to feel that they believe in what they are saying, and not to have this feeling like when some guys/gels knock on your door to sell the last Encyclopaedia Universalis…

I can't believe that Sarkozy has it all wrapped up already, despite Royal's pratfalls (which I think elicit some fairly serious concerns about her competence).Don’t worry, his own camp (actually, Chirac hate him and will do what he can to make him fall in the dust)… And some figures start to arrive to the public attention about the money companies and big fellows forget to pay to the fisc (taxes) in complete contradiction of Sarkozy’s speech…

French elections are without mercy and are not play ground for amators…

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She was not helped by the journalists reporting her small gaffes and ignoring Sarkosy’s one very carefully, like the one when he regretted France didn’t participated in Iraq’s war at the same moment when the USA started to regret it…

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A gaffe? Which gaffe? It gained him support as well.
'Mon attachement à la relation avec les Etats-Unis est connu. Il me vaut bien des critiques en France, mais, j'en suis fier et je la revendique'. :knight:

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Do not underestimate her. She arrived at this level of politic because she is ambitious, cunning and without mercy…

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Well she is an énarque, eh? It comes with the territory. She even was in the same class as De Villepin and François Hollande. I'm sick and tired of them, the lot.
Bayrou didn't go to l'ENA, he studied at Bordeaux. :yes:

Don't know where Sarko studied. He was probably killing small animals at that age.

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Originally Posted by Brenus

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Originally Posted by Banquo

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time

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Well, as a old lefty, I have difficulty to believe in this Left-Caviar… I won’t vote for Sarkozy or Bayrou (even if I like what he is saying. The only problem is I remember with who he voted in the Assemblée,..).
I will perhaps abstain… Both candidates have roughly the same agenda

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Wait, so you mean that you lefties will in fact commit the same mistake as last time? Abstaining, protest-voting or elsewise fragmentising your vote? :smash:

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Sarkozy is more honest about it in his intentions to rip-off the French from what theirs parents and grand-parents built and to sell it to his friends…
The campaign is about communications and glamour… I want Victor Hugo, Blum, Clemenceau… I want ideals, ideas, I want to feel that they believe in what they are saying, and not to have this feeling like when some guys/gels knock on your door to sell the last Encyclopaedia Universalis…

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And what if they come knocking at your door selling Kärchers? :eyebrows:

At least with Sarko you know what he's about. And he does have ideas: liberalism and lots of it. We don't need a soft Ségo Zapatera, we need Nicolas Blairzy.

Sarkozy seems to be the Putin of France: power-hungry, ruthless, well-established, and thoroughly competent. Whether that's your cup of tea is another matter, but I think France can get a whole lot worse than him.

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Originally Posted by luigi VI di Fatlington

I'm struggling with voting for a woman just to get a woman on top for change. I would desperatly love to see a female president. But I couldn't seriously vote for someone based solely on his or her gender. Or maybe I just might. Don't know yet.

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Could you explain this? Why is gender relevant? You survivors of Fatlington are a curious bunch.

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Originally Posted by Pindar

Could you explain this? Why is gender relevant? You survivors of Fatlington are a curious bunch.

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Relevant to me is that gender should be irrelevant for a presidency.

This is clearly not the case yet. Like America, but unlike Germany or the UK, there hasn't been a female president yet. There has been a female prime minister, but that office is not comparable to the one in for example the UK. France is also that little bit more 'Latin', or macho, than these three examples.

I would like a woman in the highest office as a sort of affirmative action. This is what I'm struggling with: gender-irrelevancy and voting for a woman because of her gender are incompatible. Yet, it would help to draw my ideal of irrelevancy closer.

I think. Maybe female candidates popping up everywhere -Clinton, Merkel, Royal- means that it was all just a matter of time before they had equal opportunity to become presidents. And that this time has already arrived. Counting back to the late sixties or early seventies, when the first young women grew up with the ideals and career prospects of the women's movement, we should indeed see women by now who've had the careers that make them eligable for a presidency. If this is the case, then I'll just need to wait until one that suits my political preferences comes forward.

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Originally Posted by luigi VI di Fatlington

This is clearly not the case yet. Like America, but unlike Germany or the UK, there hasn't been a female president yet.

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Germany has never had a female president. We have a female chancellor, which, as I'm sure you are well aware of, is something different in Germany.

:bow:

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Originally Posted by luigi VI di Fatlington

Relevant to me is that gender should be irrelevant for a presidency...I would like a woman in the highest office as a sort of affirmative action. This is what I'm struggling with: gender-irrelevancy and voting for a woman because of her gender are incompatible.

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So you struggle with embracing a discriminatory stance and yet think such an embrasure may move you closer to ending a discrimination? Symbolism trumps merit? God save the French!

Would Marianne be pleased? Would this mean Royal would have to be bare brested all the time or only when charging into battle?

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Originally Posted by Pindar

Symbolism trumps merit? God save the French!

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One's strengths are one's weaknesses.

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Would this mean Royal would have to be bare brested all the time

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Yes. She can never be the incarnation of the Republic with her clothes on. But how to tell her?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Well, it's close...


http://storage.canalblog.com/55/77/4344/6100053.jpg


From last year. She's 53 her, the mother of four, and quite hot for her age. :yes:

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Originally Posted by luigi VI di Fatlington

One's strengths are one's weaknesses.

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Once more into the breach then!

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Yes. She can never be the incarnation of the Republic with her clothes on. But how to tell her?

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I see the dilemma. Any shots of when she was just a lass?

Hay! I am a resident alien in the EU! Can I vote for the cute one?

What makes me laught with Ségo and Sarko is that people think they're going to magically save our country and turn France into the world #1 super power.

While a lot of people doesn't really give a crap about who's our next kingsident (so do I), both Ségo and Sarko's fan clubs sound really fanatical to me.
They have the weird feeling that if their leader is elected, everything will suddenly get better, while thinking that the other side would only lead France to its final Fall.
For example, my father is a fervous supporter of Nicolas. Whenever I start criticizing Sarkozy (by saying that he's IMO not much better than Ségolène), he turns mad.

It's quite different from 1995 and 2002 elections, but probably similar to what happened in 1981.

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Originally Posted by Meneldil

a lot of people doesn't really give a crap about who's our next kingsident (so do I)

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And there I was, thinking you'd be out campaigning for José Bové right now. ~;)

But hey, listen, now that you lefties are giving up, would you mind voting Bayrou for us?
It will stop Sarkozy and all that. :yes: :beam:

Thanks to all for their views.

I'm still hopelessly confused, but since this is a French election, that's a good thing. I think.

:bow:

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Originally Posted by luigi VI di Fatlington

And there I was, thinking you'd be out campaigning for José Bové right now. ~;)

But hey, listen, now that you lefties are giving up, would you mind voting Bayrou for us?
It will stop Sarkozy and all that. :yes: :beam:

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Who the heck told you I'm a lefty ? :furious3: If I had to chose a party, it would be the old school Parti Radical et Radical Socialiste, which would now be described as "fasciste et liberticide" by french intelligentsia.

Hopefully, I won't have to make such a choice as I'll likely not vote.

Edit : And no, I won't vote for Bayrou. Despite his pathetic attempts to look like a centriste, he's still a right-winged man who'll do anything possible to end up in Sarko's gvt.
Note that I don't dislike the man himself, but his whole "left and right must work together" speech is either a way to fool the opinion or quite naive.

I didn't think France had political contests for the same reason they don't have baseball. As a comedian once said..."they'd only have left field and nobody would be safe."

[edit]

I believe the comedian was Robin Williams, hate to not give him credit.

Apologies for disinterring this thread, but the subject interests me and it seemed wasteful to start a whole new thread.

I wonder if some of the previous commentators could share their thoughts on this article which opines about François Bayrou and his continuing rise in the polls.

Is the writer overly harsh on the electorate? Are the campaigns really wallowing as badly as reports suggest?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

John Lichfield: France is tempted into another cul-de-sac

The fad for Bayrou is another way of evading change, not embracing it
Published: 09 March 2007

A joke is doing the rounds in France about François Bayrou, the centrist presidential candidate who threatens to upset all the confident predictions for the April-May elections. Question: Why does François Bayrou encourage people to leave their mobiles switched on at his public meetings? Answer: When the telephones ring, they wake up his audience.

Bayrou has no power base. He has no original ideas. He is a decent man but a dull speaker and personality (imagine John Major, without the sparkle.) He was an unmemorable - some say cowardly and lazy - education minister in the 1990s. This is his only experience of national office.

All the same, six weeks before the first round of the elections, there is a definite movement towards Bayrou. In one poll yesterday, he reached 24 per cent, just behind the "principal" candidates of left and right, Ségolène Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy. If Bayrou were to sneak into the second round on 6 May, he would - according to the polls - unite the Anyone-but-Sarko, or Anyone-but-Ségo, majority and become the Next Big Thing across the Channel.

Bayrou is attractive to many voters because he is an "outsider"; a farmer's son, who wears denim jackets and raises horses; and because he has never been to the finishing schools of the French political élite. He is attractive, above all, because he is not "Ségosarko", the candidate of "the Paris-media establishment". He promises to transcend the ideological "cleavages" of left and right; to form a centrist "government of all the talents"; to create a new Democratic Party of the sensible centre.

There was a similar voters' revolt in the 2002 election and during the 2005 European referendum campaign. Those rebellions benefited first the loathsome Jean-Marie Le Pen and then the disparate left and far-right opponents of the proposed EU constitution.

There is an evident, and absurd, paradox in the new fad for Bayrou. He is opposed to all that Le Pen stands for. He is the most enthusiastically European candidate in the elections. Is Bayroumania a sign that the French electorate is growing up? Is France determined to put aside its left-right, shake-it-all-about, hokey-cokey politics of the last 25 years? Is France suddenly more European again?

No. The fad for Bayrou is another way of evading change, not embracing it. After the cul-de-sacs of extreme left and extreme right, France is now tempted by the cul-de-sac of the extreme centre. For 24 years, since François Mitterrand gave up socialism in 1983, France has been governed by consensual, muddle-through governments with alternate left-right labels. Ideological "cleavages" are hardly France's problem.

M. Bayrou has one or two mildly sensible ideas, on the national debt and the job-killing burden of social security taxes. He has some antediluvian, corporatist ideas, on agriculture and education. He does not have the power base to deliver the economic and social change that France needs and says that it wants. His UDF party - the rump of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing's anti-Gaullist coalition of the right and centre - is too small, under-funded and disorganised to give him a parliamentary majority in the legislative elections in June.

For more than two decades, the French electorate has pleaded for "change" and then opposed most changes. It has punished successive governments for "changing nothing" - even though the real causes of government unpopularity have been the limited changes that they have tried to introduce.

A couple of months ago, it seemed that both centre-left and centre-right had found candidates who could raise popular fervour for reformist politics. Both "Sarko" and "Ségo" have their faults, but both have newish ideas (Mme Royal's "Scandinavian" social-democracy; M. Sarkozy's rather Blairist, "humane" liberalism).

"Ségo" fervour has faded. More surprisingly, so has "Sarko" mania. Partly, this is the fault of the candidates. Partly, it is a resurgence of the unthinking "anti-Paris", anti-media mood which characterised the polls of 2002 and 2005.

A thoughtful centre-right, regional politician told me: "I would happily go along with Bayrou if I thought that he represented a real movement for pragmatism and reform. He doesn't. The movement towards him is just another example of our electorate refusing to grow up and face the future. They still want to vote against everything, not to vote for anything. Some say France is stuck in the 1970s. Actually, we are stuck in the 1790s. We just want to cut off heads."

Better Bayrou than Le Pen. But he offers no future for France. A Bayrou presidency risks being a Chirac III: another five years of drift. Having lost patience with the mushy centre, France would inevitably turn back to the destructive extremes. The Bayrou bandwagon would rapidly turn into another tumbril bound for the guillotine.

The campaign is utterly bad, and Bayrou being only mediocre has no difficulties going up.

Though he lacks a strong electoral basis. I'd say around 24/100 of Voters are Sarko fanatics, & 18/100 Sego groupies. The real fanbase of Bayrou does not exceed 6/100. But most people who want someone else tend to think he is less bad than the others, & consider coting for him. Note that he may be at 24/100 in the polls now, yet 60/100 of those are not sure of their vote(that is, including me).

But is there a good choice at all? Well, doesn't seem to me.:embarassed: :thumbsdown:

I think the article is quite correct.
The electorate part is probably too harsh and inexact but it still corresponds to a reality.

The campaign in itself is very low, with a conservative candidate whose speeches range from Milton Friedman to Blum and Jaures – two French socialist leaders from the first part of the 20 th century – , a socialist candidate whose main line is “ I’m glamour and I will follow the people’s will” and a centrist that exists only because he played it on a rebel style by opposing to the government on some occasions during the last years.

The choice as it is presented is a choice between personalities, not between political programs.
There is a huge difference between right and left as the actions of the different governments since ten years show it but candidates seem to differentiate only by the image they sell of themselves.

In those circumstances jokers such as Bayrou or fascists such as le pen can dig their hole as they do not seem to be very different from the others candidates except that they look truer, more honest which is the biggest joke of the campaign.

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Brenus: I won’t vote for Sarkozy or Bayrou

Meneldil: And no, I won't vote for Bayrou. Despite his pathetic attempts to look like a centriste,

el_slapper: The campaign is utterly bad, and Bayrou being only mediocre has no difficulties going up

Petrus: jokers such as Bayrou

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:furious3: :furious3: :furious3:

Bayrou is the one serious candidate and the last hope for France. He only appears boring in comparison, but that's because the other candidates are concerning themselves with showmanship so much. I've never been able to stay awake for more than two minutes when listening to him either, but what's so bad about his moderation of tone, careful analysis, lack of impossible promises?

Sarkozy isn't going to succeed in his program of reform, too many are opposed to it, half the country will be on the street constantly, doing to him what they did to De Villepin. And Royal can't finance her plans, even her own party elephants know it, what a charade.

If Ségo is a Zapatero, and Sarko a Blair, than Bayrou is an Angela Merkel. Boring, but surprisingly competent. And perfectly capable of leading a Great Coalition between the left and right, the one chance for some broadly accepted, realistic reforms.

I love Sarko's priorities, but I fear his weaker character traits. With Ségo, it's the reverse.
Bayrou is the right choice. And enough about his not having a power base or lacking content. Contrary to popular belief, there is both a staunch UDF power base and a clear program. The UDF electorate is higher educated, young, cosmopolitan and quite outspoken in the direction they want the UDF to go to: centre-right, liberal and very pro-Europe.

Fatigue with the current crop of politicians is gaining François 'the catholic peasant' Bayrou the support of the working class, who'll vote him in the second round. Then, opposition to and fear of Ségo and Sarko will get him the votes of those who oppose the one that won in the first round. And voilà: in the biggest coup ever a party which represents five percent of the electorate will gain the presidency. :beam:

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Originally Posted by Meneldil

Who the heck told you I'm a lefty ? :furious3:

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My apparently failing memory told me. But then post more often! Yes, the .org is a complete waste of time for cultured and refined guys like us, but it beats wasting our time in front of the telly. So stop lurking, give in to the temptation, and share your thoughtful analyses with us!

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Originally Posted by Petrus

a socialist candidate whose main line is “ I’m glamour and I will follow the people’s will”

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Sounds very French to me.

What are the main electorate issues?

Immigration?
Employment?
Annoying the US of A?
Witty and insightful reviews of mundane and lackluster books by professors who havn't read them?
The state of the 6 nations?
How to take control of the EU and then the world?
More cake to eat?

Immigration?
I don’t believe that, but I just follow the campaign from TV5 and what I can catch.

Employment? Yes, that is one point. France is still under high rate of un-employment, and more and more people are worried to loose jobs and houses. What is new in France is even people with jobs are homeless, prices are increasing, the so-call flexibility (which just another word for exploitation) didn’t resolve the problem…

Annoying the US of A?
No, that is just pure fun and pleasure… Especially when it is quite obvious now that WE WERE RIGHT…

Witty and insightful reviews of mundane and lackluster books by professors who havn't read them?
That is teaching and useful social skill…

The state of the 6 nations?
Well, could be, but Rugby is not the main sport in France…

How to take control of the EU and then the world?
We leave that to the youngest countries. We had our share and others have to experiment…

More cake to eat?
France is better with wines and cheeses, as you know.

I like what Bayrou is saying but I don't trust him. He never show once the will to do what he is now preaching when he had the opportunity to do so... Sorry...:embarassed:

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Immigration?
Not so much. Law and order is, which is often a euphemism for control of black and beur (arabe) young men.
Law and order is Sarko's program and territory, the current interior minister.

Employment
Yes, in the context of the preservation / reform of the social model, the welfare state, the French model.
The frustrating thing is, France is right, the rest of the world is wrong. Our way of life is the best, but is it sustainable in the face of the onslaught of ultra-libéralism and globalisation? 35 hours a week is the way it should be, so people can read books and have proper meals at a proper table while talking with their friends and family instead of microwave dinners in front of the tv and not speaking to your children.
But what to do in an increasingly globalised world where 300 million Americans satisfy themselves with 14 days of vacation a year, 1.3 million Chinese work 35 hours a day and a billion Indians do your work for 10 percent of your wage?

Annoying the US of A?
Why are they annoying France all the time? We are world powers of equal stature and we don't need America to constantly frustrate us in our global aspirations at every opportunity they get. :book:
Germany, the UK, Africa, the Arabs, Oceania - they're all voluntarily or involuntarily paying tribute to Paris and bowing to our grandeur. Just why the US feels the need to resist this and offer these countries an 'alternative' is a bit beyond me.

Witty and insightful reviews of mundane and lackluster books by professors who havn't read them?
That is teaching a useful social skill.

The state of the 6 nations?
The six nations is a good training ground to experiment with rugby tactics and players in preparation for the serious competitors we'll meet in the World Cup in France later this year.

How to take control of the EU and then the world?
The EU is a topic, but not dominant.

More cake to eat?
We live to eat, you eat to live. :shrug:
French food is so good, that you can eat all day long and not gain a gramme. Chirac's appetite is legendary, and he knows how to throw a civilized meal for friends, which both have contributed to his popularity.

Mistrust of the political elite plays a large role. Environment is a big issue too.

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Originally Posted by Brenus

I like what Bayrou is saying but I don't trust him. He never show once the will to do what he is now preaching when he had the opportunity to do so... Sorry...:embarassed:

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I get your point, and it is a fair one. But only to a certain extent. For a left-leaning voter, the alliances with the UMP are not very promising, certainly. But then, Bayrou personally has always kept a good distance to the UMP, he is not de Robien.
And, the UDF is a small party hey? It has the option of opposition forever or of occasionaly forming alliances with the bigger parties, who unfortunately will always be the more influential, so one has to compromise at times.

There is a downside to all the candidates. I personally am not impressed with the sometimes near-conservative catholicism of Bayrou. On the upside, he has always worked for the possibility of a centre-right, non-gaullist alternative.
And his books are better than those of Royal or Sarkozy. :beam:

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Yesterday, Chirac has finally announced that he won't run for president again. At 74 and suffering from a still somewhat mysterious disease this doesn't really come as a surprise to say the least. Though apparently he himself believed well unto the end of last year that he could give it a shot. ~:eek:
And there I was, thinking he kept us in the dark only to prevent 'lame-duck' syndrome, and to serve as a plan-B in case of disaster with the other right candidates.

Here's his full speech in french, can't find a translation. It was quite moving. Rousing television speeches and connecting with people have always been what he does best. In fact, he is so good at quitting, I wish he would've done it more in the past.

But seriously, there is a sadness to seeing someone go who's been in a major public function ever since before I was born. He looked vulnarable, human, a 74-year old man who knows he's in the closing stages of his public life. Professing a sincere love for France, the serving of which has always been the engagement of his life. Very touching in a way.

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I saw the speech on SBS news last night, it was indeed quite moving. Focusing on bringing together the French, struggle with racism, that the French have much to offer the evolving new world and to embrace it not shy away from it.

@ Luigi :

A political campaign is always a show.
Whatever the candidate, a role must be built that allows a clear identification and a simple message to be immediately linked to the man/woman concerned.
This is true for all of them, Bayrou included.
The programs are always shaped to symbolize a candidate.

In the actual campaign the roles are, from left to right for the main candidates :
A fresh and active woman, free from her party’s rigidity and open to new or unorthodox political views.
A modest, realist and simple man, willing to unify every good will behind him, personifying the “bon sens” and free from ideologies and party’s rules.
A strong willed, brilliant conservator very active, taking all necessary risks and doing what must be done when it must be done.
A big mouth.

Besides those roles, the main candidates represent a political/power colour, from left to right :
A classic social democrat party built to from the core of a left government.
A moderate conservator sensibility associated to the power of the main conservator party.
A strong conservator party that shifted from Gaullism to liberalism/neo conservatism.
A 1930’s European fascist party.

Choice must be made relatively to the colour and if possible to the program of the candidates not to the role they choose to play.

The exercise of power that is manageable by these political sensibilities gives a good indication of what can be the result of the elections :
The socialists are a platform and they governed with all political sensibilities ranging from the communists to the moderate right. Their actions are very pragmatic depending upon the possibilities. They are a party able to lead a government.
The centrists never managed to reform after their defeat in 1981. They have been supported or absorbed by the conservators since that time. Some personalities among them have associated with the socialists, the party itself acting as an auxiliary to the conservators. They are not able to lead a government.
The conservators form a pyramid-shaped party builted to support a man and bring him to power. Their actions are probably the most ideology-dependant of the political spectrum. They have associated themselves with the centrists every time they had acceded to power. They are able to lead a government.
The fascists want le pen caudillo/duce/fürher of france and have no option but civil war.

Concerning this specific election, the problems of Bayrou are :
Although the centre has a political basis, it is very narrow ie Christian democrats, non reactionary conservators …
The pool of voters to the right is shared between Sarkozy, Le Pen and Bayrou.
Sarkozy is the natural conservator candidate, he will be the main benefactor of the conservative vote.
Le Pen will sell his soup to 15-20% of the electorate as usual.
Bayrou will not have enough votes from the right to pass the first turn if he counts only upon the conservator electorate.
The only possibility for him to reach the second turn is to “steal” votes from Royal.
To realize this the shift of the votes from left to right must be massive
The respective scores of the different political colours in france to the first turn are, very widely :
The socialists range from 15 to 25 percent.
The centrists range from 5 to 10 percent.
The conservators range from 15 to 25 percent.
The fascists range from 15 to 20 percent.

To beat Le pen, Bayrou needs to take about half of the votes of Royal, something that is at best very unlikely.

That’s what makes me think he is but a joker.

From a personal point of view, what I do not want to see again is a replica of 2002.

There is a left, there is a right and they are different enough to allow a clear choice for the voter.
The only effects Bayrou can have during this election are to increase the blur between left and right, to drain some votes from the left and to create an opportunity for Le pen.

If you want a social-democrat president then vote Royal.
If you want a neo-conservator president then vote Sarkozy.
I do not think any other choice can present an interest : this is an election, not a poll.

Concerning his idea of a candidate unifying the good wills behind him, I think this is totally wrong. The exercise of power is not simple question of persons. The creation of a coalition must be prepared before elections or managed after elections but it is not a program in itself, it is a way to manage power, not an objective.

Is Le Pen running? Will a disgruntled and overlooked French working class vote for him. What are the French working class like? Do they smell?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Strike For The South

Is Le Pen running?

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Yes, he simply refuses to die. He's been running every time since 1974. In fact, he's so old, he was already running in 1940, from the Germans.

Quote:

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Will a disgruntled and overlooked French working class vote for him.

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Yes, Le Pen wil receive his usual votes. But I'm not worried about him, I don't think he'll make it into the second round this time. Polls say he'll get some twelve percent, to which some five percent should be added for those voters who are too ashamed too admit they vote for the Front National.

Quote:

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What are the French working class like? Do they smell?

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I'd say the French working class are the exact opposite of their American counterpart: they don't work, but they do have class.

Video! Smelly, racist, French, and working class. ~;)

“I'd say the French working class are the exact opposite of their American counterpart: they don't work, but they do have class.” That is typically French… The pleasure to write a nice sentence, “le bon/beau mot”, even if the truth is a little bit err… avoided…
The French workers are de facto the most productive in Europe, and believe my experience, comparing the English where the “sickies” are reigning in masters… I never work in a so poor working atmosphere than in UK (I worked for Dutch Compagnies)…

Might as well dig up this thread now that the first round is drawing near. Bayrou seems past his top in the polls, Royal isn't recovering enough, Le Pen is creeping up, but it looks like it's going to be Sarkozy ftw.

Anyway, what better way to do raise interest again than by quoting good-old Le Pen:

Quote:

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Le Pen tells lustful teens the answer is in their hands

He has advocated patriotism and zero immigration, but the far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen this week came up with a new way for young people to serve their country: masturbation.

Mr Le Pen, whose daughter and campaign manager, Marine, has been softening the party's image and attempting to attract women with more policies on the family, was attending a debate organised by Elle magazine, entitled "What women want".

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Might as well dig up this thread now that the first round is drawing near. Bayrou seems past his top in the polls, Royal isn't recovering enough...

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What do you attribute Royal's troubles to? Is it her weakness as a candidate or a failing of the socialist perception in 21 Century France?

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Yes, in the context of the preservation / reform of the social model, the welfare state, the French model.
The frustrating thing is, France is right, the rest of the world is wrong. Our way of life is the best, but is it sustainable in the face of the onslaught of ultra-libéralism and globalisation?

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Rather ungentlemenly, isn't it? Not playing on a fair field are they? Lousy peasants! :toff: ~;p

Quote:

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35 hours a week is the way it should be, so people can read books and have proper meals at a proper table while talking with their friends and family instead of microwave dinners in front of the tv and not speaking to your children.
But what to do in an increasingly globalised world where 300 million Americans satisfy themselves with 14 days of vacation a year, 1.3 million Chinese work 35 hours a day and a billion Indians do your work for 10 percent of your wage?

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Seriously, though; what if people want to work more? What if a man without wife or kids finds his work fascinating, and his home dull? And why would you take those (relatively) high paying jobs from the Indians?

But hey, it's your country. As an aside, I too am interested in Pindar's questions.

CR

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Video! Smelly, racist, French, and working class. ~;)

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Thanks for that, I can sign off with a smile now.

- Pourquoi est-il imbouffable?
- Parce qu'il est Juif?
PAF!
- Parce qu'il est noir!

“Is it her weakness as a candidate or a failing of the socialist perception in 21 Century France?”
I have difficulties to vote for her because a socialism is fading… Capitalism failed and fails again, but always succeeded to recover. Socialism, because confused with USSR, has problem of image. However, look to the South American (and Central) what do they vote? Socialism…
In short, she is not socialist enough…

What could be a boost for her, and I am in it, is this 8.56 million € (11.49 million US$) for the former Airbus manager as compensation. For failure. That is capitalism, supported by the righties so-called capitalist. The ransom of the failure. And 10 000 families lost their income.

Airbus is no example of pure capitalism.

CR

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Might as well dig up this thread now that the first round is drawing near. Bayrou seems past his top in the polls, Royal isn't recovering enough, Le Pen is creeping up, but it looks like it's going to be Sarkozy ftw.

Anyway, what better way to do raise interest again than by quoting good-old Le Pen:

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Do you have a pic of Le Pen's daughter? :eyebrows:

French politics sounds excitng

They and the Dutch have some of the prettiest politicians. :yes:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pindar

What do you attribute Royal's troubles to? Is it her weakness as a candidate or a failing of the socialist perception in 21 Century France?

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Both.

Socialism is under strain. It has never really reformed itself like so many other European social-democratic parties. It has only tried halfheartedly so. With the result that it has estranged the old socialist guard (*waves at Brenus*). And neither does it offer a viable modern version that's palatable for more centrist voters. *myself*

Royal is not a very strong candidate, the novelty has worn off rather quickly. She peaked too early, you can only be the next big thing for so long. Just because I think she's a hot [Mother I'd Like to get Familiar with] doesn't mean I'll vote her. [/needless sexist commentary preventing women from being taken seriously as politicians]

I should write something more constructive, but summer's here and I've been staring at hot chicks in skimpy dresses all day long and I can't think of anything else right now so I'll move the subject on to that:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vladimir

Do you have a pic of Le Pen's daughter? :eyebrows:

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Are you sure you want to see what this guy's daughter looks like...?

http://www.electionsfrance2007.fr/im...e/LE_PEN_4.jpg

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Picture of Marine le Pen:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

http://atriaskulls2.rmcinfo.fr/images/mn/1149280646.jpg

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Just kidding.

Here you go:

https://img211.imageshack.us/img211/4769/fnjge1.jpg

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Gah! In her dreams. This is Marine le Pen:


http://www.clicanoo.com/IMG/jpg/Marine-Le-Pen.jpg

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Srike

French politics sounds excitng

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That depends a good deal on your definition of exciting. It is different from American politics.

Take Dominique de Villepin. You may remember him from his time as minister of external affairs. He was the one that pwnd America at the UN during the row over the Iraq invasion.
He was born in Morocco (to French parents) and grew up in Venezuela. He's fluent in French, English and Spanish. His career alternated between being a diplomat and being a poetry critic and writer. He is together with Bayrou certainly the best author of the bunch.

One of the peculiarities of the French political system is that politicians write books - you know, that dead wood stuff with regular patterns of ink blobs on it.
A regualr subject is the historical biography about great Frenchmen. Their choice of subject, and the way they describe them, is really of covert way of speaking about themselves. Bayrou wrote about Henry IV, the 'good king', a popular favourite whose policy is best summed up by his words of 'a chicken in the pot for every Frenchman!'
Sarkozy wrote about Georges Mandel. Like himself a refugee with Jewish origins, he became a French resistance fighter in WWII.
Royal wrote about Voltaire.

De Villepin wrote about the final days of Napoleon. Not unprophetic, considering De Villepin's promising career ended in ruin during the CPE student revolt of last year, ending his hopes of running for president at the current election. Pity, because he possesses that most important of qualities for becoming president: height. We like 'm tall. Either that, or very short, foreign and of unrelenting ambition due to lack of height.
Shame, just like the socialists, the right wing picked the showy and not the intellectual candidate. (Gah! Americanisation!)

Anyway, the boring stuff above was intended to be a brief prelude to get to the point: my wet dream, Marie de Villepin, his daughter. She studies economics, is very intelligent and is currently living anonymously in New York under a pseudonum, where she's a model for Chanel and Givenchy:

http://www.saelblog.com/dotclear/ima...ar-blog/a3.jpg

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

http://www.saelblog.com/dotclear/ima...ar-blog/a3.jpg

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She looks like a guy in drag. I prefer the older, drugged up one.

“the old socialist guard”. Qui meurt mais ne se rend pas. Not so old, but socialist internationalist yes. I heard her interview on TV5 - Tele Matin yesterday (or before yesterday), it was not so bad, but still lack of conviction.
Sarkozy looked more and more like the faux-cul he is… I don’t understand how the French forgot how he betrayed every body he could to gain power… Yerk.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Brenus

the faux-cul he is.

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Mais de droite. ~;)

'faux-cul', for the French-impaired, = phoney; hypocrite.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by me

Is it her weakness as a candidate or a failing of the socialist perception in 21 Century France?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Brenus

I have difficulties to vote for her because a socialism is fading… Capitalism failed and fails again, but always succeeded to recover. Socialism, because confused with USSR, has problem of image. However, look to the South American (and Central) what do they vote? Socialism…
In short, she is not socialist enough…

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Sorry Brenus, I didn't see you had responded. Is your view then if she were more of a socialist then she would have more support? Does this mean you see a strong Socialist segment in France waiting for a champion?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Both.

Socialism is under strain. It has never really reformed itself like so many other European social-democratic parties.

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Why not?

Quote:

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Are you sure you want to see what this guy's daughter looks like...?

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This actually made me laugh out loud. My assistant is giving me odd looks. I like the "Avec Le Pen" hottie though.

Quote:

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De Villepin wrote about the final days of Napoleon. Not unprophetic, considering De Villepin's promising career ended in ruin during the CPE student revolt of last year, ending his hopes of running for president at the current election. Pity, because he possesses that most important of qualities for becoming president: height. We like 'm tall. Either that, or very short, foreign and of unrelenting ambition due to lack of height.
Shame, just like the socialists, the right wing picked the showy and not the intellectual candidate. (Gah! Americanisation!)

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Are political resurrections possible in the land of the Gauls?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Video! Smelly, racist, French, and working class. ~;)

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Hilarious :D

Sorry Brenus, I didn't see you had responded. Is your view then if she were more of a socialist then she would have more support?” I don’t know if she would get more support, but she would have got the Socialist one.
The problem with the actual socialist movement is it lost his roots, the Dream. The dream is that every human have the right of a decent life, a right for dignity and the right not to be just a factories/companies fodder… I know, in a world more and more like a jungle it seems odd to think like that but I am too old to change.
So, following the righties “back to the future XIX Century”, the socialists (Blair ahead) just lost the reasons why they were socialist and enjoy a new life of money and power.
The so-call adaptation is just a pure submission to others’ diktats were it is the market (whatever it is) is the new king, money is every things and death to the wreaks and the ills. As my Grand Mother would have say: “better to be rich and in good health than poor and sick”.
“Does this mean you see a strong Socialist segment in France waiting for a champion”. I don’t think so. France is a conservative country, due to her past. Revolutions happened but were only due by minorities, and too much people think they have to much to loose.
To be elected, you have to play on the fears of people, emigration, insecurity, but avoid carefully to speak of the real problems: Unemployment, inflation, taxes on the poorest, homeless, poverty, education, what the French are really concerned when the media don’t built fear on screen like the last election.

...Resisted the urge to take this wildly off topic.

I apologize in advance for any unintended offense. But you cannot begin to understand how odd it seems to hear a French socialist decrying the fact that the leading Leftist candidate isn't Left enough.... Imagine if I said I wish Bush could find a way to help out corporate America more... :dizzy2:

Anyway, I think Madame Royal's troubles started with the now infamous Hillary-snub. I think it was in really poor taste of Hillary, and just goes to show how she treats her supporters. What can we who disagree with her expect in the way of treatment?

From what I know of the situation, which granted is incredibly limited, I'd say France needs somebody that's willing to stand up to the labor unions and end the legally proscribed 35 hour work week. All the French people I have known have been innovative and industrious, but your current system retards your growth. And when I ask your expat brethren about it, they say much the same, that you're simply not allowed to outwork your competitors in the office, and it's a shame.

I also think France also needs to implment more carrot and more stick in terms of dealing with immigrant enclaves. The benign neglect thus far has been anything but.

As to this particular election itself, it sounds like you have 3 stuffed shirts. Some blow hot air you agree with, some you don't, but at the end, you don't trust any of them further than you throw them, and it's clear none of them believe the words coming out of their mouths. Welcome to our world. To paraphrase Jack Nicholson, American elections are all about finding the leper with the most fingers left.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Don Corleone

I apologize in advance for any unintended offense. But you cannot begin to understand how odd it seems to hear a French socialist decrying the fact that the leading Leftist candidate isn't Left enough.... Imagine if I said I wish Bush could find a way to help out corporate America more... :dizzy2:

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Well, this opinion is shared by a lot of the population. Many people from the Socialist Party itself, aswell as all people who will vote for the Communist Party or one of our 3 Troskist (sp?) party, our great José Bové national or even Les Verts (add to them all the various anarchists, communists and troskists who think voting is a waste of time).

And well, one could not blame them. Socialism was supposed to find an alternative way to generalised and inhuman (that's not really the word I'd be using in French, but I can't find an english equivalent) free-market.
And, Royal and her friends are in now way doing such a thing. They just accepted the system and are trying to live by it. They're not trying to promote a new way of life, but just doing their best to limit the worst consequences of economical liberalism.

They're not to be blamed, because I doubt there's any real alternative to liberalism for a developed country atm (as Mitterrand could say if the damn bastard was still alive), but it doesn't change the fact that a lot of people in France still think this can (and should) be done.

Brenus summed it up fairly well. I don't give a crap about a President who promise to reduce unemployement rate by 2% and an increased growth. I want someone who promises us to get ride of unemployement altogether, who promises us that incompetent managers won't go on retirement with millions of euros while other people are just trying to buy food for their families, and so on.

So have we any predictions the day before voting?

I'm tending towards seeing all those undecided voters pile in for Bayrou. There seems to be a lot of anger at Sarkozy, but enough support to get him into the second round anyway. I suspect many people may decide in the ballot booth that Bayrou might just be the guy to beat him.

So there's my hostage to fortune: Sarko and Bayrou to the second round.

:stupido2:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by me

Socialism is under strain. It has never really reformed itself like so many other European social-democratic parties.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pindar

Why not?

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Well Brenus and Meneldil gave the answer. France is a conservative country, even the socialists. The left still decries the waning of Trotskyism. Just watch all those half a dozen leftists clowns tomorrow each get their million votes or so.

It is a pity, because at heart I consider myself a progressive, but I can not support a socialism that is not prepared to take the step towards a modern social-democracy. I may even vote Sarko in the second round, even though he's pathologically ill and needs help, not a presidency.

To a certain extent, I like Royal, her style. She is willing to engage in a 'dialogue'. But at the moment, I'd rather have a major shake-up than her soft touch, her one hundred little steps forward. Let Sarko be a hammer of progress first, then we'll see.

Don is more correct in his assesment than he thinks:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Don Corleone

From what I know of the situation, which granted is incredibly limited, I'd say France needs somebody that's willing to stand up to the labor unions and end the legally proscribed 35 hour work week. All the French people I have known have been innovative and industrious, but your current system retards your growth.

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The thing is, I think Sarko means a major step forward, for the right. At least he has a more realistic assesment of the world, of France. In contrats, there is no new left. Royal, for all her talk about her new, 'feminine' style is still teh old. She shouldn't have surrounded herself with all those elephants.

The campaign has been rubbish for the past month. All this talk about French identity and immigration from the canditates, blech, get to the real issues. And then there are all those voters, what a bunch of :daisy:, complaining about politicians all the time, mistrusting them, demanding this, wanting that, hoping for promises, promises promises. Gah! Yes I would mistrust politicians too if I would share the idea that the state should take care of my every need. Bunch of children they are. Sarko isn't going to clean up the suburbs and Sego isn't going to get you a job. Get it yourself. Get over it.

It's rubbish, and to think we're at such an interesting crossroads of history.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Banquo's Ghost

So have we any predictions the day before voting?

I'm tending towards seeing all those undecided voters pile in for Bayrou. There seems to be a lot of anger at Sarkozy, but enough support to get him into the second round anyway. I suspect many people may decide in the ballot booth that Bayrou might just be the guy to beat him.

So there's my hostage to fortune: Sarko and Bayrou to the second round.

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The polls are closed. It is forbidden to publish polls or forecasts until after the elections of tomorrow. Which means I'll be watching BBC and CNN all day long tomorrow - long live globalisation. :2thumbsup:

As to my prediction: Sarko is certain to make it. I think Sego will come in second.
I will vote Bayrou, but I fear he's not going to make it.
One never knows about Le Pen, he could actually make it again. God forbid, we'll be the laughing stock of the world if he makes it twice in a row.

I still have the feeling that Bayrou could win the second round against Sarko, now if only we can get him into the seond round...:knight:

The socialists will be the laughing stock if their candidate doesn't make it to the second round....again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fenring

The socialists will be the laughing stock if their candidate doesn't make it to the second round....again.

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*crosses fingers*

America could also use a more economically free ally...

Sarko - Ségo

Enjoy

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Meneldil

Sarko - Ségo

Enjoy

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That certainly seems to be the case with the early exit polls. Pretty substantial turnout reported too. :book2:

Well, it will be interesting to see what will happen from now on. I'm fairly sure all far left voters will support Royal, since there afraid by Sarkozy.
On the other side of the spectrum, there are about 12% of people who will probably support Sarkozy.

The outcome will likely be decided by Bayrou's voters and I can't tell if most of them are former right or left voters.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Banquo's Ghost

That certainly seems to be the case with the early exit polls. Pretty substantial turnout reported too. :book2:

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Around 83%, counting only registered voters - the real turnout in % of the total electorate is much less impressive.

from a brit perspective I will be cheering Sarko on to the finish line, for two very good reasons:

1) our Armed Forces hating lefty politicians are unwilling to spend enough on the Defence Budget, and thus we are in the silly position whereby it is considered essential to partner with the french on the proposed new aircraft carriers. Royale has said she would cancel the french carrier, which our stupid politico's might take as an excuse to dump all UK carrier plans. We could easily afford this on our own, but in the absence of any British spine i will happily see the UK collaborate with the french on this.

2) Sarko is the only politician who has campaigned for a mandate to rejuvenate the french economy, to once more add real dynamism to france. i want france to be powerful and independent, as a proud france is less likely to tolerate this rampant euro-twaddle. most of the pro-euro arguments revolve around how independent nations cannot survive on their own anymore, and populaces are most receptive to this flawed argument when their own economy is sclerotic. While this may have some truth for small euro nations, it certainly isn't true of the likes of the UK and france, and federalism is not the right answer anyway.

Very exciting, extreme right vs. extreme left in France with ~85% turnout. Seems like a raw deal either way. I really hope France pulls out of its socialist daze. So many with talent and desire to achieve are leaving and their home economy is due to be surpassed by places like East Timor, Lichtenstein, and Sealand.

Msr. Sarkozy isn't extreme right. He's right-wing, but not extreme. That would be Msr. Le Pen. From an American perspective, I think Msr. Sarkosy would be described 'Moderate to Conservative Democrat".

I heard an interesting theory this morning on NPR that predicts a Madam Royale win. Not based on her own merits as the next president, or a new French love affair with socialism, but with a "Anybody but Sarkozy" push. It's always sad when politics devolves to this, but it does tend to be effective. In our last presidential election, both sides adopted this tactic pretty much from the conventions on. It was my main reason for voting for Bush (please, no eggs or rotten vegetables today...)

In any case, please allow me to offer a most sincere and profound congratulations to the French people. 85% of your elegible electorate showing up for an election would be miraculous beyond all bounds of reason here in the USA. Say what you want about French disaffection with the process, you certainly trumped the patriotic Americans (I think we set a record this past election with 65%).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Don Corleone

"Anybody but Sarkozy" push

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Well, yeah, the "Anybody but Sarkozy" strategy isn't new. All our Extreme-Left candidate announced a while ago that they don't want Sarko to rule the country (ie. they ask their voters to support Ségolène), which is quite exceptionnal, as AFAIK, they did not even bothered to say that in 2002, when it was Chirac vs. Le Pen (but then, it was a no brainer that Chirac was going to win by far).

It was even proposed before the first turn. A few important figures frow the Parti Socialiste said that Royal and Bayrou should work together against Sarkozy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Don Corleone

In any case, please allow me to offer a most sincere and profound congratulations to the French people. 85% of your elegible electorate showing up for an election would be miraculous beyond all bounds of reason here in the USA. Say what you want about French disaffection with the process, you certainly trumped the patriotic Americans (I think we set a record this past election with 65%).

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Well, actually, it would be more like 75%, as it is estimated that more or less 10% of the population that should be able to vote isn't registered on the electoral lists. Still, I'm glad that so many people decided to vote yesterday. I don't have much faith in politics, but it's nice to see that a lot of people still actually care.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vladimir

Very exciting, extreme right vs. extreme left in France with ~85% turnout.

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As Don said, Sarkozy isn't from extreme right. He's fairly right-minded on some issues (ie. immigratio), but that doesn't make him a far-right nutjob, even if the left is trying to enforce this opinion ("Sarko, facho, le peuple aura ta peau"and so on). I'm pretty sure you would call him a liberal euro-whinie after some of his speeches.
As for Ségolène, if don't know where she stands, but certainly not on the far left. If it wasn't for the old socialist crew behind her, she would still be praising Blair. AFAIK, Blair isn't a far leftist, except maybe for an american conservative.

Whom did you vote for, Meneldil? And will you vote Sarko or Ségo now? I'm still undecided. ~:mecry:

Bayrou did well. Shame he didn't make it. Un the upside, the UDF will be taken more seriously from now on. There's a centre to be reckoned with.

Quote:

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There's a centre to be reckoned with.

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Which is mainly their exit comment. Did they "invite" their supporters to reject Sarko?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warmaster Horus

Which is mainly their exit comment.

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We'll make you eat those words. :knight:

Quote:

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Did they "invite" their supporters to reject Sarko?

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No, there's no voting advice from Bayrou yet. He did flirt with an anti-Sarko front last week, but that was before the election.
Thinking about it a bit more, I might vote Sarko just to spite the left, who refused to vote strategically for Bayrou, their best anti-Sarko hope. :shame:

Quote:

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We'll make you eat those words

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Is that a threat? I'm all behind Bayrou!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warmaster Horus

Is that a threat? I'm all behind Bayrou!

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Oops. :beam: :sweatdrop:


A bit late to link to now, but I stumbled on this BBC series of articles that were made in the run-up to the election: 'France versus the World'. Here you go, the reason why natural progressives like me feel compelled to vote rightwing lunatics just to get some action going:

Quote:

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A poll recently conducted by an American university sent shock waves through the Finance Ministry in Paris. Researchers found that only just over a third of French people think a free market economy is the best system to develop the country.

By way of contrast, the survey found that a majority of citizens in 19 other countries were in favour of the free market, including 65% of Germans, 59 % of Italians, 66% of the British and 74 % of the Chinese. Even the Russians, many of whom have suffered in a painful transition to a market economy, were more favourable at 43%.

In a bar outside the National Library in Paris, I met two students, Laurent and Florence who told me globalisation is "scandalous" because it often means French jobs are lost to poorer countries with lower wages and harsher working conditions.

"I think globalisation today is the modern equivalent of the slave trade across the Atlantic Ocean," says Laurent. "I am for human globalisation, but I am against the capitalist economic system and I think we need to make capitalism history."

[...]

For Philippe Bloch, who set up a French chain of coffee shops, the main problem is over-zealous employment legislation. He protests that the Code du Travail, the book of labour laws, which runs to 2800 pages, is "bigger than the Bible".

Sick of state meddling, he says he may start his next venture in America.

"I'm not quite sure I want to re-invest the same amount of energy and effort and money in an economy that does not want me to create jobs.

"I think France has the unemployment it deserves, France has chosen unemployment. We have chosen to pay jobless people benefits to keep the peace."

[...]

"Three quarters of young people believe, in France, that they are going to live less well than their parents.

"How can you expect a society to be dynamic, entrepreneurial and optimistic if they feel they are going to live worse in the future?"

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Oops. :beam: :sweatdrop:


A bit late to link to know, but I stumbled on this BBC series of articles. 'France versus the World'. There you go, the reason why natural progressives like me feel compelled to vote rightwing lunatics just to get some action going:

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This is what socialism does. I appreciate France for doing this, now I can refer to it anytime I want to give an another example of how socialism has ridiculously failed.

That is extremely scary that only slightly over 33% France's population believes in a free market.

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Originally Posted by Ice

This is what socialism does. I appreciate France for doing this, now I can refer to it anytime I want to given another example of how socialism has ridiculously failed.

That is extremely scary to that only slightly over 33% France's population believe in a free market.

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No way dude, socialism works! Just look at Venezuela. :sombrero:

This result is good enough for me. I am surprised that Royal got such a high number of votes given the competition left and center. As was to be expected Sarkozy has gone for the personal attacks almost immediately last night, which is bad strategy if you want to conquer centre votes. Over 15% of voters are undecided for the second round. This leaves Madame enough room to put up a good fight.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Whom did you vote for, Meneldil? And will you vote Sarko or Ségo now? I'm still undecided. ~:mecry:

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For nobody*. I thought about voting for Bayrou, as a protestation vote, but then, the UDF dude from my university is so stoopid that he made me hate everything related to Bayrou.
It's also likely what I'm going to do for the second turn.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

'France versus the World'

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This has been published a while ago in France. I don't find it that weird. As long as we'll see things like Noel Forgeard leaving EADS with 8.4 millions of €, while 10K people are going to be fired because he screwed up everything he has done, people will think capitalism sucks.

Mind you, I'm not some left-wing nutjob, but while I'm not against capitalism and free-market, I think it has huge flaws, and I'm glad at least one nation on Earth is not just accepting these flaws like some brainwashed sheeps.

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Originally Posted by Meneldil

the UDF dude from my university is so stoopid that he made me hate everything related to Bayrou.

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Jean-Pierre, is that you!? I knew you were! :idea2:

It's me, Eric! :jumping:

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Originally Posted by Meneldil

Mind you, I'm not some left-wing nutjob, but while I'm not against capitalism and free-market, I think it has huge flaws, and I'm glad at least one nation on Earth is not just accepting these flaws like some brainwashed sheeps.

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Bravo. The French exception is very welcome in Europe for political as well as cultural reasons. It is something of a beacon in a sea of free market stupidity. France has always had an interventionist state which created great infrastructure projects in public sectors like transport, energy, aeronautics, etcetera. The notion of French stagnation is nonsense. There are problems, sure, but France has gone through a period of tremendous liberalisation in banking, telephony, air traffic or the electronics industry, to name but a few. Anyone want to compare the health of Renault and PSA Peugeot Citröen to that of, say, the British car industry? Right - what British car industry? People shouldn't take their cue from a 800 word blurb on a BBC site.

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Originally Posted by Adrian II

Bravo. The French exception is very welcome in Europe for political as well as cultural reasons. It is something of a beacon in a sea of free market stupidity. France has always had an interventionist state which created great infrastructure projects in public sectors like transport, energy, aeronautics, etcetera. The notion of French stagnation is nonsense. There are problems, sure, but France has gone through a period of tremendous liberalisation in banking, telephony, air traffic or the electronics industry, to name but a few. Anyone want to compare the health of Renault and PSA Peugeot Citröen to that of, say, the British car industry? Right - what British car industry? People shouldn't take their cue from a 800 word blurb on a BBC site.

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Do you have any sources to back this up?

Also are you arguing that France's economy is in good, healthy shape?

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Originally Posted by Ice

Also are you arguing that France's economy is in good, healthy shape?

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I think you miss my point. There are upsides and downsides to every economic system and strategy. A nation's economic health is measured by the goals and priorities it sets itself. France has always been different in some ways, has always wanted to be different, and it has done a remarkable job going against the flow of free marketism in order to stay different.

Sure, there are problems. The French labour market for instance has problems adjusting to the China norm - but hey, which western labour market hasn't? And the French have also scored huge labour market successes. Because of the relative rigidity of the labour market, French employers had to invest in productivity; as a result French labour productivity is now among the highest in the world. And the number of unemployed has been quite high for a while now, but even the jobless have health coverage and enjoy what is probably the best health service in the world. The same goes mutatis mutandis for French education.

All these elements are interwoven. You can't just pick out some random criterium, look at it without context and go 'Oooh, the French have only got 1,9% growth in 2007, what a mess they're in.' You see, compared to China's ten percent annual GDP growth we are all lagging. But Chinese society in lagging behind ours in all respects for the same reason: the majority are still dirt-poor and their wages, housing, health care, education and public services suck.



This is all off the top of my head. I don't have time to play the numbers game, interesting as it may be. If you are really interested in that country you can help yourself to books, newspaper articles and websites all over the place. And if you do, one thing you will discover is that French state intervention or dirigisme has nothing to do with socialism. It was a right-wing post-war policy.

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Originally Posted by Adrian II

I think you miss my point. There are upsides and downsides to every economic system and strategy. A nation's economic health is measured by the goals and priorities it sets itself. France has always been different in some ways, has always wanted to be different, and it has done a remarkable job going against the flow of free marketism in order to stay different.

Sure, there are problems. The French labour market for instance has problems adjusting to the China norm - but hey, which western labour market hasn't? And the French have also scored huge labour market successes. Because of the relative rigidity of the labour market, French employers had to invest in productivity; as a result French labour productivity is now among the highest in the world. And the number of unemployed has been quite high for a while now, but even the jobless have health coverage and enjoy what is probably the best health service in the world. The same goes mutatis mutandis for French education.

All these elements are interwoven. You can't just pick out some random criterium, look at it without context and go 'Oooh, the French have only got 1,9% growth in 2007, what a mess they're in.' You see, compared to China's ten percent annual GDP growth we are all lagging. But Chinese society in lagging behind ours in all respects for the same reason: the majority are still dirt-poor and their wages, housing, health care, education and public services suck.



This is all off the top of my head. I don't have time to play the numbers game, interesting as it may be. If you are really interested in that country you can help yourself to books, newspaper articles and websites all over the place. And if you do, one thing you will discover is that French state intervention or dirigisme has nothing to do with socialism. It was a right-wing post-war policy.

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Hmm, after some research, the French don't appear as socialist at I initially thought. Still, in IMHO, the government plays to large of role in the lives of its people.

The main issue I have with the how the French system works is the 35 hour work week, the 10% (Extremely high) unemployment rate, and odd labor contracts.

EDIT: Changed 39 to 35. 39 was the number before they lowered the max amount.

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Originally Posted by Ice

The main issue I have with the how the French system works is the 39 hour work week, the 10% (Extremely high) unemployment rate, and odd labor contracts.

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If you want to see some really weird and odd labor contracts check out the railroad, and I would image its the same for about any railroad throughout the world.

Go Sarkozy. This is all so amusing, just when the socialists almost convinced France that Sarkozy is the new Hitler Le Pen calls him an immigrant :laugh4: I bet Sarkozy would be willing kiss him for that, I wonder if Le Pen is really stupid or really smart :laugh4:

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Originally Posted by Ice

Hmm, after some research, the French don't appear as socialist at I initially thought. Still, in IMHO, the government plays to large of role in the lives of its people.

The main issue I have with the how the French system works is the 35 hour work week, the 10% (Extremely high) unemployment rate, and odd labor contracts.

EDIT: Changed 39 to 35. 39 was the number before they lowered the max amount.

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I don't live in France, but we have an official 37 or 37h week. It's really not as bad as you Americans makes it sound. It's mostly there to protect manual labourers who can get serious health issues if they have to work for too long. I'd say it's influence on office workers is negligable. Don't forget we work *harder* here, productivity in Europe is far higher than in the US. I've been to places where people worked several jobs, and my main conclusion is that they can do that because they don't work very hard in any of them.
Consider the Japanese, who work the longest hours in the world, yet aren't that productive, all things considered. I believe a Scandinavian country even experimented with six hour work days, and productivity hardly dropped. People can only keep concentrated for so long. Long hours aren't always better, it's what you can do in the time you've got.

Now, this is for 'normal' employees, it doesn't apply to people who have their own business or 'executives', which includes just about everyone with a decent engineering or economics degree. These people work on a project and aren't payed by the hour, so 12h work days are still (a little too often) a reality for those with ambition. Okay, as long as they're working for someone else they get plenty of days off (minimum is 20, engineers in the chemical industry get 38 normally), but like with the shorter work days, those more often than not improve average performance. It's a well known fact that most ideas (in product development) are submitted right after the holiday season, or after a vacation.

And finally (though I must have forgotten something) people who work for small businesses, like shops etc. often are expected to do a few unpayed extra hours if the job requires it. This is pretty much expected.

As for France being an example of failure: huh ??? They certainly have their problems, especially in the banlieu, but those places aren't any worse than a good old US ghetto I'd say (knowing neither personally). What other problems are you referring too ? The standard of living certainly isn't bad, and don't forget that the French often care more about the quality of life than about something objective like the standard of living. Du pain, du vin, du Camembert...