Opinions on the threat from Russia

Since no-one felt motivated to post about the sabre-rattling by President Putin over the US missile deployments, I guess the Backroom is sanguine about the escalating rhetoric from Russia.

This piece, an open letter from a well-known journalist who has sought asylum in the UK, is strident, a trifle dramatic but chilling. Chilling, for me at least, because it reflects quite accurately the concerns voiced by my friends and relatives still in Russia - most of whom are the western-leaning intelligensia that Putin so hates.

My own view is that Putin is making such a fuss more for internal consumption at present. There are moves in the Duma to amend the constitution to extend the president's term from four to seven years - as well as the more well-known removal of term limits. Putin continually denies he is seeking an extension or a new term, but it is unlikely he is going to be able to resist the calls from the worshipping populace (see Richard III, Act 3 Scene 7 for precedent and style) to stay and protect them from the evil Western powers encroaching on their traditions and rights.

But what might follow from such an acclamation to power? Is Tregubova right to be so militant in urging us to recognise the pitfalls of appeasement? Have we taken our eye off the ball? And what should we be doing about it, if anything?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Yelena Tregubova: Why I fled Putin's Russia. And why the West must appease him no longer

An open letter to the G8 from the best-selling author and prominent critic of the Putin regime
Published: 05 June 2007

I have personal experience of Vladimir Putin's regime and the way the Russian President operates. I have been forced to seek asylum in Britain for criticising the Kremlin as an independent journalist. I have come to realise that to return to my homeland would be suicidal for me.

But this letter is not about me. I am writing to you because I fear that a tragedy is befalling Russia, with the restrictions on political and personal freedoms worsening every day. Having done away with the domestic opposition, Putin, on the eve of the G8 summit, has now decided to deal with the external "enemies".

He has threatened to aim Russian missiles at targets in Europe once again, just like in the Cold War, and has warned of a nuclear arms race. It is now clear that the escalation of aggression by Kremlin is the direct result of the policy of appeasement pursued by Western leaders who, during the seven years of Putin's rule, have turned a blind eye to his lynching of the opposition, the press, NGOs and all democratic institutions in Russia.

There has been no single example in history of a dictator who, sooner or later, did not become a danger to both his close and distant neighbours.

The goal is not the "revival of Russia" or the "revival of the national pride of the Russians", as Putin and the Kremlin's propaganda are trying to present it. It is a full-scale revenge by the secret services and the authoritarian regime with all their old methods and tricks.

Putin has shut all independent TV channels, introduced harsh censorship, blocked access to the press for the democratic opposition, accused Russian human rights activists and NGOs of being Western spies, and split up the country's biggest oil company, Yukos, among his friends from the special services.

Encouraged by your non-resistance, Putin's regime has become so strong and impudent that is now directly threatening its close neighbours, Poland and the Czech Republic, former colonies of the Soviet Union, trying to speak to them as if they were its vassals. In recent months, three ambassadors - Estonian, Swedish, and British - have been affected by the actions of extremist organisations controlled by the Kremlin.

And now events have taken a logical new turn: the Kremlin is threatening the West, by missile-rattling. The critical difference between this and the Soviet era lies in the fact that then you knew exactly which side of the barricades you stood on, when you provided moral support to the opponents of dictatorship. But nowadays due to the favourable situation in oil and gas markets, Putin has the resources to buy your indulgence and silence.

You even kept silent even when Putin signed a law authorising the murder of all Russia's enemies abroad last summer. Anyone who dares to criticise Putin is put on the enemies' list.

You have started to protest now that you have suddenly realised that it will not be too easy to get off the oil and gas hook Putin forced you to swallow. The Kremlin doesn't give a damn about your words. The only thing it does give a damn about is your money.

The Kremlin, as it has already openly shown, will use brute force against peaceful demonstrators with the sole goal of preventing next year's election from being held on a free and fair basis. Putin and his close supporters are planning to restore in Russia a clan-like dictatorship resembling the former Soviet Politburo. We are reaching the point of no return.

If, following the Heiligendamm summit, you continue to shake hands with Putin as if nothing has happened, you will further strengthen Putin's feeling of complete impunity. Putin should be faced with a stark choice: either the Kremlin restores democratic freedoms, or Russia will be expelled from the G8 and other international clubs.

All free-thinking Russians are ashamed by what Putin is doing.

You must decide whether you want to sacrifice freedom in Russia on the altar of gas and oil.

About the author

Yelena Tregubova is a former member of the Kremlin press corps. Her book, Tales of a Kremlin Digger, published in 2003, accused Vladimir Putin of stifling political and press freedoms in Russia. As a result, she lost her job and was blacklisted from the Russian media. In February 2004, a bomb exploded outside her apartment, moments before she opened the door. Tregubova, 34, has now applied for asylum in Britain.

Overly dramatic, but it's pretty accurate. Putin always did remind me of Stalin.

Wow. While I can see the ideas behind this, and I can see that there is a potential for a threat, the invasion of Chechnya shows us just how sad a state the Russian military is in. Yes, they may threaten their neighbours, but honestly I don't think much will come of it. I doubt that this will come to a Nuclear Arms Race (And if it does, the US will absolutely crush Russia in terms of technology).

This sort of reminds me of North Korea. They are a state trying to get back the attention and power they once enjoyed, and to try to get back into the limelight. Just sabre rattling.

As to him wanting to become Dictator, it will probably happen, but the people will probably start to retaliate.

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There has been no single example in history of a dictator who, sooner or later, did not become a danger to both his close and distant neighbours

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Franco? Tito? Metaxas?

The thing I found alarming in Putin's rhetoric, is that he seems still to be thinking in terms of MAD as a guarantor of the peace. This seems so odd that it suggests (unless this is just magic thinking on my part) that it has to be play acting for the benefit of the home audience. After all, who knows where Russian missiles are in fact targeted.

But then, who can understand the Russian mind? I was genuinely surprised (and alarmed) when it came out that the Soviet leaders really did think they were under military threat from the west. It seemed so obvious to me that it was the other way around. I can't imagine Putin really thinks the US would engage Russia, but an aggressive defence of his own version of the Monroe doctrine as regards the former Warsaw pact seems easier to understand.

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Originally Posted by CountArach

but the people will probably start to retaliate.

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Stalin had the terror, Putin (an ex-KGB man) will know exactly how to reinstitute such measures.

Intresting piece, whats most telling are the inferences to the energy supplies Russia sells to Europe.

there in lies the new lever of Russian influence (for now) he literally has Europe by the balls on energy and pointing missles at them isnt really anything new.

We have assurred mutual destruction through out the cold war and it still exsists, we just didnt unsheath it like he has, but I think he knows that its an oldy but a goody.

the russian democracy expirement is still fairly new, you have plenty of old school communists running around like Putin and it should come as no surprise that as thier sphere of influence, not only evaporates but becomes nato allies, and bases for the U.S. that they would rattle a few sabre's before laying down.

However the lever of energy is still there, and you watch, pretty soon the energy issue will become alarming all over the EU as he nationalises more oil fields and the energy sector as a whole.

Russia...Russia...where did it all go wrong? They were supposed to become a liberal, free democracy...

I don't know what to make of Russia and Putin. Is this simply a return of 'eternal Russia', the country that according to Engels can only be ruled by the bayonet and the knout? Or are we witnessing something far worse, have the nineties been Russia's Weimar Republik - a brief interlude only serving to estrange the populace from liberal democracy?

:shame:


For too long has the West misunderstood developments in Putinist Russia, underestimated the danger. And has it been so hungry for Russian gas that it now depends on it.

Germany has of course a complicated relationship with central and Eastern Europe, of which Schröder had to take notice in his dealings with Russia. But there is a fine line between being emphathy and identification. Schröder's personal relationship with Putin was outstanding. His foreign policy beneficial to the strategic interests needs of Russia and it's gas and oil industry. So beneficial to Russia in fact, that they offered Schröder a position at Gazprom immediately following his chancellorship, which he eagerly accepted.
This, the more cynically inclined would describe as a German chancellor apparantly having been on Russia's payroll. :wall:

Then there's Bush, who naively classified Chechnya as a part of a global war on terror.

And Chirac, who followed the ancient Gaullist reflex of a 'Europe of nations, from the Atlantic to the Ural', in dealing with Russia. Gah! All those little get-togethers between Chirac, Schröder and Putin were becoming increasingly embarrassing. :no:

The EU has not been able to formulate a common policy towards Russia. The various member states have each dealt with Russia seperately, almost to the point of Russia being able to play divide and rule, with its natural recources acting as both a stick and carrot.


On the upside, Europe and the West at long last seem to be awakening to the danger. Merkel and Barosso finally stood up to Putain at the last EU/Russia summit. Sarkozy has an altogether different foreign perpective than Chirac, and the new foreign minister, Kouchner is a human rights champion. The UK, I recently learned, is in a shock not pussyfooting around mode over that polonium murder case.

Here's hoping America keeps a firm stance about placing its missile shield in sovereign central European allied countries, and that the EU takes a unified, strong stance against Russia too.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Here's hoping America keeps a firm stance about placing its missile shield in sovereign central European allied countries, and that the EU takes a unified, strong stance against Russia too.

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hi Louis, nice post.

this part I think will stick as long as the allied countries allow it. The paradox is that Bush is so disliked that any plan he might push is unpopular, even if it has the unintended effect of unifying a EU/U.S. stance on Russia.

Intresting dynamic on the discussion really, the love hate relationship the U.S. and EU have would have to be put aside for the a greater good, and in reality a reenstatement of old coldwar theories of mutual defence.

Can that be achieved in the last days of the Bush admin?

I remember a few years back that Putin had said some things about subjugating Finland, to which the Finnish President Replied "I don't know. Russia is an awefully big place to conquer." :laugh4:

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Originally Posted by Odin

hi Louis, nice post.

this part I think will stick as long as the allied countries allow it. The paradox is that Bush is so disliked that any plan he might push is unpopular, even if it has the unintended effect of unifying a EU/U.S. stance on Russia.

Intresting dynamic on the discussion really, the love hate relationship the U.S. and EU have would have to be put aside for the a greater good, and in reality a reenstatement of old coldwar theories of mutual defence.

Can that be achieved in the last days of the Bush admin?

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Indeed, the missile defense shield is under serious criticism here within the United States. Much is made that it's actually a provocative move and antagonizing Russia and China, and we're apparently willing to give them a pass on anything Hu or Putin decide to do to retaliate, shifting the blame for their actions to Bush himself. The real reason people oppose it? It's Bush's baby and anything he wants cannot be good...:oops:

How can you say anything bad about Putin? Lest we forget:

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I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straight forward and trustworthy and we had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul. He's a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country and I appreciate very much the frank dialogue and that's the beginning of a very constructive relationship.

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~D

Hmmm.... Missiles pointing at Europe, Gorbachov on the radio denouncing the imperialistic evils of the US, Fidel recovering, Chavez seizing power.... Before you notice Poland will disappear from the map...

And they said the Cold War was over!

On a less funny note, if Europe and the US don't treat this whole issue carefully, they could be pushing Iran and Russia together, and there are many advantages for both in such a relationship.

Firstly, the US wouldn't be able to afford a war.

Secondly, the russians could point their missiles to Iraq too (or Iran could do it for them).

Thirdly, the UN wouldn't be able to impose sanctions on Iran since Russia has veto power.

Fourthly, for the US it'd be a kick in the balls, and a serious loss of international prestige.

Fifthly, Russia would get to the Iranian oilfields, thus beating the US to it.

Sixthly, Russia might even get a say in Afghanistan and Iraq policy.

Seventhly, the US will have no alternative but to build the damn missile system if they don't want to lose even more international face, which of course will escalate anti-american and anti-russian tensions in the affected countries and will lead those European countries in presidency to suck up to Russia to release the tension, which of course will give Russia more cards to play.

Eightly, and finally, the conclusion to all this, is that unless China does something (which I doubt) it would put Russia and Iran in a position of power that approximately cuts the world in half (and controls the route of the silk, by the way, if anyone is interested). Which is handy.

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Originally Posted by Don Corleone

Indeed, the missile defense shield is under serious criticism here within the United States. Much is made that it's actually a provocative move and antagonizing Russia and China, and we're apparently willing to give them a pass on anything Hu or Putin decide to do to retaliate, shifting the blame for their actions to Bush himself. The real reason people oppose it? It's Bush's baby and anything he wants cannot be good...:oops:

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In concept, I think it's a great idea and am all for it. However, I think we blew it because Bush and crew put it directly center stage to flaunt in front of the rest of the world, "Hurf durf lookit our pretty new anti pwnage toy u cant touch us now lol!!!" Yeah... could have been handled much, much better, and been done with nary a whisper, though given Bush's administration's history for antagonizing the rest of the world that was highly unlikely at best.

At no point did Putin say "imma bomb europe". All of his statements were is responce to that nifty little "missle defence shield" placed ever so close to Russia's borders. But hey, I guess it's fair. You know, like that Cuban missle defence shield. No one made a complaint or threatened military action over that little episode.

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Originally Posted by CrossLOPER

At no point did Putin say "imma bomb europe". All of his statements were is responce to that nifty little "missle defence shield" placed ever so close to Russia's borders. But hey, I guess it's fair. You know, like that Cuban missle defence shield. No one made a complaint or threatened military action over that little episode.

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I'm afraid I'm not familiar with any defensive missile shields being constructed in Cuba. I am familiar with the placement of a battery of medium range nuclear missiles in Cuba, followed by Krushchev's not so thinly veiled threats that he was ready and willing to use them. I guess that equates to a defensive missile shield in your book?

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Originally Posted by Don Corleone

I'm afraid I'm not familiar with any defensive missile shields being constructed in Cuba. I am familiar with the placement of a battery of medium range nuclear missiles in Cuba, followed by Krushchev's not so thinly veiled threats that he was ready and willing to use them. I guess that equates to a defensive missile shield in your book?

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The placement of those weapons destabalized MAD in the same way. The shield was originally to be concentrated to southeastern Europe, away from blocking Russian ICBMs. Also, it was planned to have only specific capabilities, namely those that could counter Iran and little more. For some reason, it moved its way upward and got an upgrade along the way. That's what's causing the problems.

Russia was never a democracy. They've always had a strong (usually) despotic leader. They're returning to what they know.

I find that the worry about missiles is purely for (Russian) home consumption. The very real threat of turning off gas is a far more graduated, subtle weapon than missiles can ever be.

OK, some of the Eastern countries are scared. Does it really matter what they think either way? Little Economic power and no military power. Radars in Eastern Europe or Britain are not going to make that much of a difference in reality.

America is free to be all strong and tough as they're not the ones dependant on Russia for energy.

Europe needs to get its act together: wind, wave, biofuels, solar - whatever - just stop relying on a very alien state to keen running smoothly.

~:smoking:

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Originally Posted by CrossLOPER

The placement of those weapons destabalized MAD in the same way. The shield was originally to be concentrated to southeastern Europe, away from blocking Russian ICBMs. Also, it was planned to have only specific capabilities, namely those that could counter Iran and little more. For some reason, it moved its way upward and got an upgrade along the way. That's what's causing the problems.

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There's still no way it's a serious threat to Russia's nuclear arsenal. They have too many missiles and the warheads are too advanced. The best we could hope for is that it would be effective against it's intended target. A single missile from a rogue nation.

I have to wonder if part of Putin's rage isn't because he's worried that it will hurt their arms/missile technology sales...

As to the article, Yelena had better start being careful about what she eats...

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Originally Posted by Xiahou

I have to wonder if part of Putin's rage isn't because he's worried that it will hurt their arms/missile technology sales...

As to the article, Yelena had better start being careful about what she eats...

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Hurt? It'll massively increase the demand for the latest greatest models - and now they're needed thanks to America's White Elephant.

~:smoking:

Putin's rage has more to do with the loss of face. Poland and the Czech Republic are supposed to be his footmen. Having them off the ranch was bad enough, but openly deploying weapons systems with "Made in USA" on them is just too much for Putin to swallow.

Interestingly, I heard that the system deployment is deeply unpopular in the Czech Republic. If that's the case, how well do its democratically elected leaders represent the will of its people? In Poland at least, the people are behind it. If the Czechs are really that opposed, we should hold off installing them. We're getting them into a fight they don't even want to be in...

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Originally Posted by Don Corleone

Putin's rage has more to do with the loss of face. Poland and the Czech Republic are supposed to be his footmen. Having them off the ranch was bad enough, but openly deploying weapons systems with "Made in USA" on them is just too much for Putin to swallow.

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Yeah, I think thats pretty much it in a nutshell, of course we could throw the Ukraine and the baltics in there too but we already have one stick in his eye.

The entire idea of pointing nukes at each others is really childish and not useful to anyone. USA has no need to point nukes at Russia, and Russia has no need to point nukes at Europe. Childish ridiculous play act from both parts, I'd say remove the nukes on both sides before we have a new cold war - or worse: a nuclear war.

Ah, so THAT's what this thread is about!...
When I saw the subject, I thought "Damn, BG got in trouble with the missus!"... ~D

:embarassed:

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Originally Posted by Blodrast

Ah, so THAT's what this thread is about!...
When I saw the subject, I thought "Damn, BG got in trouble with the missus!"... ~D

:embarassed:

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:laugh4: :oops:

Oh there is a threat from Russia alright... :sweatdrop:

Interesting article Sigurd, now why is it so hard to put these rods somewhere else? Does Russia want them to explode or do they just not care or what? Guess they'll just wait until everything explodes, say "ooops, we're sorry, but life goes on..." and that's it.:juggle2:

Nothin' wrong with a little 'power excursion' once in awhile to wake up the neighbors! Gah, that is scary as hell. You guys also do know that for the longest time Russia was dumping nuclear waste into the Barents Sea? They'd send out a ship periodically that would have 'engineering problems', and circle for awhile as it dumped the waste directly into the water.

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

Oh there is a threat from Russia alright... :sweatdrop:

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I think Sigurd is on the money here

the russians are losing personal freedom - nothing they are not used to, and maybe its more confortable for them

the russians are pointing nukes at Europe and the UK - erm you mean to say at some point in time they werent!!?? The real worry was the place deteriorating to a level where some nutter with nothing to lose decides to take the planet with him - this is not Puttin he is an opportunist and there are so many opportunities in todays world for one who is unscrupulous.

He can sell arms to the Koreans and Middle east (who will pay top dollar), he can hold Europe to ransom for gas supplies - making enough bluster to cause artificially inflate prices - why shouldnt he be as rich as OPEC - at the same time maintaining a nervous tension at a low simmer over his ability to turn off the tap in themiddle of winter - Let them hate us, as long as they fear us - Caligula

The real looming spectre is the environmental catastrophy on a planetary scale that is happening in russia - huge inland seas have dried into salt pans, radioactive waste is lying exposed on the road side and by the river bank leaking toxic waste into the water and air, nuclear materials are 'lost' and sold no questions asked, the siberian permafrost is melting creating a chainreaction of greehouse gas release which would make Bush proud. The industry is 50-100 years behind most of the world in its emissions, huge clouds of poisonous air drift like mustard gas across the steppes.

The fallout from the enivironmental collapse of Russia will march over Europe like the red army into berlin.

The crops will fail, the people will starve, a mass of humanity will horde across the landscape, and as this collapse takes place, someone will sit with his fingers on a nuclear arsenal and think - the world I knew is ended - why not :oops:

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Originally Posted by Xiahou

There's still no way it's a serious threat to Russia's nuclear arsenal. They have too many missiles and the warheads are too advanced. The best we could hope for is that it would be effective against it's intended target. A single missile from a rogue nation.

I have to wonder if part of Putin's rage isn't because he's worried that it will hurt their arms/missile technology sales...

As to the article, Yelena had better start being careful about what she eats...

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And what about the next advancement? And one after that? Building a shield upsets the delicate balance of power. Iy's a fact. The only way Russia is able to respond is by improving their missiles or by building more of them. I'm personaly glad Russia is responding accordingly.

And for someone who is choosing to ignore the facts for the oh, so popular "Evil Russia" view; during hailed-by-the-west, democratic Yeltsin's time in the office more journalist were killed (30) than during Putin's time in the office (15).

Back during the height of the Cold War (70's) I attended a dinner party. A professor I admired made a statement to the affect that there was more likely hood of the USA attacking the USSR (with missles) than vice versa, because the Russian people wouldn't tolerate another war (losing 20M in WWII will do that to a people). As it turns out, their war in Afghanistan was the straw that put the cracks in the foundation of the USSR that led to the Russia we have today. [an over simplification, but Afghanistan did have the effect of putting a million mothers in the streets protesting the war]

Today, Russians may yearn for their days of being a superpower - when they were feared more than the US. [I mean, the Bushys scare the bejesus out of me - they're not quite right in the head when it comes to world diplomacy] No doubt there are an abundance of polls about how the Russian people feel towards all this hooplah about Putin wanting to become the next Czar (we had an opening here - he shoulda taken it). Are things that good in Russia for Putin to convince the people to give up their present freedoms and go back to the good old Gulag days? Personally, I'm totally ignorant about about it - other than seeing Putin's "Brown shirts" (Nashi) and other militant youth groups the Kremlin is funding.

Personally, the US is an easy target to make an adversary (real or imagined) for any government in the world today that needs (wants) to unify its people - for the purpose of subverting its peoples personal freedom, or to make them forget they have none (Iran).

This missle defense system is a joke. Even if it did work (out of 5 tests, 2 failed out right, 1 was marginal - and all knew where the target was), can you imagine how many missles it would take to be effective against China or Russia? It's ludicrous that even Putin would seriously be upset by it. However, it sure makes for a great patriotic sound bite - and nothing more.

What we do not need is appeasement, but allowing any form of confrontation would play into Putin's hand. Send a Democrat over to Russia to remind them - only 17 months to go. Then the US becomes somewhat normal again (hopefully).
:tomato2:

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Originally Posted by Husar

Interesting article Sigurd, now why is it so hard to put these rods somewhere else? Does Russia want them to explode or do they just not care or what? Guess they'll just wait until everything explodes, say "ooops, we're sorry, but life goes on..." and that's it.:juggle2:

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Apparently they don't have the money to handle this. They have asked Norway to contribute to the 9 billion it will cost to bury this threat for good. And here was I thinking that oil & gas nations were filthy rich. I guess their slush fund is meant for other situations ... like another arms race?

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

Apparently they don't have the money to handle this. They have asked Norway to contribute to the 9 billion it will cost to bury this threat for good. And here was I thinking that oil & gas nations were filthy rich. I guess their slush fund is meant for other situations ... like another arms race?

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Russia is huge. Their existing infrastructure is bare. Their tech programmes, however advanced, were always done on a budget. If the West were smart, we'd pay the Russians the full amount to keep these things safe. Not only would this be money they need but don't have (or at least not once maintenance costs for that gargantuan nation have been shared out), but it would be a tangible gesture of good intent from us, that could help calm any tensions and misunderstandings. It would probably be considerably cheaper for us than running up another Cold War.

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

Russia is huge. Their existing infrastructure is bare. Their tech programmes, however advanced, were always done on a budget. If the West were smart, we'd pay the Russians the full amount to keep these things safe. Not only would this be money they need but don't have (or at least not once maintenance costs for that gargantuan nation have been shared out), but it would be a tangible gesture of good intent from us, that could help calm any tensions and misunderstandings. It would probably be considerably cheaper for us than running up another Cold War.

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Missunderstand me correctly. I'll be more than happy to pay up the entire 9 billion to clean up their mess.
I think however that is all we can contribute with. Norway is not a nuclear nation and I am unsure if we have competence in this area.
Russia surely have capable people and have been in the nuclear business since the beginning of the nuclear age.

I'm just a little aggitated that they put us in this peril.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Here's hoping America keeps a firm stance about placing its missile shield in sovereign central European allied countries, and that the EU takes a unified, strong stance against Russia too.

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I have to disagree with you for once, the missile shield does NOTHING to protect Europe, it's for targeting ICBMs in flight, not when they're about to land. The shield only benefits the US (perhaps western Europe is far enough away too, but I digress). If they want the shield up in our backyard, they'd better be paying us enough for it...

Now against Russia, we need a strong front. Heck, we just need a strong front, some sort of European Defense Force, a *defensive* army which would only operate within our borders unless it's in retaliation, following an official declaration of war. Countries can still have their own armies all over the world and do with them what they want, but we need some sort of unified defensive army.

All this episode really shows me is that Bush doesn't give a :flower: about Europe anymore, he's just using us so he has a place to dump his overpriced toys. You don't think Iran has ICBMs do you ? The whole missile shield is a farce, and as Putin has shown, a dangerous one at that. The arms race is on again.

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Originally Posted by Pannonian

Russia is huge. Their existing infrastructure is bare. Their tech programmes, however advanced, were always done on a budget. If the West were smart, we'd pay the Russians the full amount to keep these things safe. Not only would this be money they need but don't have (or at least not once maintenance costs for that gargantuan nation have been shared out), but it would be a tangible gesture of good intent from us, that could help calm any tensions and misunderstandings. It would probably be considerably cheaper for us than running up another Cold War.

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Agreed, but does one really trust that they would actually use the money to take care of the problem? Putin & Comrades main concern is keeping the club in power, and they appear to be more than willing to employ any means possible to accomplish that. I wouldn't trust them to follow through on any subsidized clean up funding. What would be the stick to this carrot? Global condemnation? pfft. Getting kicked out of the G8 club? Hah, I'd be surprised if they were officially admonished, let alone shown the door. Corporate 'birds of a feather' flock together, and it doesn't much matter what political system they have to deal with. When $$$ is > than or = to "free speech" then who's is going to call the tune? The technology is available to deal with the environmental problem, but I fear the will of the deciders is not.

I don't know if Putin's Russia is quite ready to take on the world. Russia may be recovering from the brink of Economic, Military, and Political Disaster. But it hasn't fully recovered yet, in fact its no where near fully recovering yet, I think this could be Putin's white elephant, to detract from Political Entanglements that make his regime appear weak. This "Cold War" could have the west in a flurry of Military Activity and Arms Building under a preconceived notion that Russia is presenting a very real and dangerous threat, but behind the Walls of the Kremlin the Russian Government snickers and pays only token attention to the State of their Military until the West becomes tired knowing that nothing has ever really happened, and then it becomes time to build.

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Originally Posted by Hosakawa Tito

Agreed, but does one really trust that they would actually use the money to take care of the problem? Putin & Comrades main concern is keeping the club in power, and they appear to be more than willing to employ any means possible to accomplish that. I wouldn't trust them to follow through on any subsidized clean up funding. What would be the stick to this carrot? Global condemnation? pfft. Getting kicked out of the G8 club? Hah, I'd be surprised if they were officially admonished, let alone shown the door. Corporate 'birds of a feather' flock together, and it doesn't much matter what political system they have to deal with. When $$$ is > than or = to "free speech" then who's is going to call the tune? The technology is available to deal with the environmental problem, but I fear the will of the deciders is not.

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The rot started before Putin came to power. It began when the Soviet Union couln't hold the state together any more, and state employees and projects were let go as the money (never plentiful) wasn't there any more. Putin has spent most of his time trying to claw back the state's authority, and to some extent he's succeeded, as we now at least know what hasn't been done but needs to be done (whereas before, no-one including the Russian government knew what was going on).

Even if Putin and his buddies embezzle large amounts of the money we give them for safeguarding the nukes, it would still be more cost-effective for us than guarding our purses and hoping the Russians can make do with what they already have. The latter is known not to work, so why not assess how much it's going to cost, add on a bit more as "incentives" for Putin's mates, and pay them to take care of the problem? If I want a job done, I can only demand a low price if there are competitors to drive the price down. If the service is only available from a single supplier, and said supplier wants a "premium" for this service which is absolutely vital to me, I can only grit my teeth and fork out the cash. Putin has us by the :juggle2: , and we can only hope he doesn't squeeze.

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Originally Posted by Wakizashi

I don't know if Putin's Russia is quite ready to take on the world. Russia may be recovering from the brink of Economic, Military, and Political Disaster. But it hasn't fully recovered yet, in fact its no where near fully recovering yet, I think this could be Putin's white elephant, to detract from Political Entanglements that make his regime appear weak. This "Cold War" could have the west in a flurry of Military Activity and Arms Building under a preconceived notion that Russia is presenting a very real and dangerous threat, but behind the Walls of the Kremlin the Russian Government snickers and pays only token attention to the State of their Military until the West becomes tired knowing that nothing has ever really happened, and then it becomes time to build.

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I dont know if I would be willing to give them that much credit. The way I see it Russian threats, even hollow ones might serve domestic consumption but also serves to bring the EU and the U.S. closer in this area.

thats not a net gain for Russia, not only that but the view you took might be applied to the U.S. They are talking about a missle defense system that isnt fully operational yet, against a threat that dosent exsist yet (Iran dosent have ICBM capability yet).

If anything this is pushing Russia to a point of having to enter another arms race, which essentially is how they lost the cold war (over Star Wars, sound familiar?)

Russia wants to be able to influence world politics to a greater extent and gain part of the status the USA has held between 1945 and 2001. I'm not surprised that they point nukes at the European countries that have allowed military access for the USA to point nukes at Russia. These nuke pointings at Russia may however be in response to the Cuba crisis in which there was a threat of Russian nukes pointed at USA. But I don't think it's really justifed to point nukes against the current regime of Russia since it's an enemy of the communist regime that pointed nukes at the USA, and in fact overthrew the communist regime. There should therefore be a good reason for both sides to now forget what has happened in the past and withdraw the nukes on both sides. I hope both sides are willing to negotiate as soon as possible. Neither side has any justifiable reason, given the current situation, to point nukes at the other side, unless the other side does so. However if one side does so, then the other side has an excuse to do it. A treaty of mutual respect is the only solution.

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Originally Posted by doc_bean

I have to disagree with you for once, the missile shield does NOTHING to protect Europe, it's for targeting ICBMs in flight, not when they're about to land. The shield only benefits the US (perhaps western Europe is far enough away too, but I digress).

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I, for one, don't disagree with you, I just see it from a different perspective.

I don't think this missile shield / warning system works in the first place. And I don't care. To me, this is about the sovereignity of former Soviet colonies in Eastern Europe. Yes, colonies, states brutally subjugated to Russia.
This is about Warsaw and Prague deciding for themselves who gets to build what in their countries. If they want to build a two-hundred meter tall statue of a drunk Pole mooning eastwards, then that's none of Russia's business either. It's the historical right of central Europe.

Note to self: Build Giant Statue Depicting a Drunken Pole Mooning Russia. :laugh4:

Although in all serious, I don't get the whole hubbub why Russia feels as though it's being threatened. As Louis has said, I think its more of a symbolic defeat for Russia rather than an economic or Military One. But Russia is too touchy when it comes to defacing what pride they may think they have left. Its been stated over and over that those Missile Shields couldn't touch a Russian ICBM, and are too close to the border, Unless the Bushys and Co. aren't telling us something, which in this instance I do doubt.

I also have little doubt as Odin stated that the US is doing this for the exact same reasons as Russia, its a save of face in light of both Internal and External Embarresments. What both sides need to do is to take a 10 minute breather, have a cup of Earl Grey and rethink the strategy, the US, Europe, and Russia could all benefit far more from mutual economic interest, rather than Baboon Fight over who has the reddest ass.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

I, for one, don't disagree with you, I just see it from a different perspective.

I don't think this missile shield / warning system works in the first place. And I don't care. To me, this is about the sovereignity of former Soviet colonies in Eastern Europe. Yes, colonies, states brutally subjugated to Russia.
This is about Warsaw and Prague deciding for themselves who gets to build what in their countries. If they want to build a two-hundred meter tall statue of a drunk Pole mooning eastwards, then that's none of Russia's business either. It's the historical right of central Europe.

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I'm not going to protest the Eastern EU countries placing the defenses if they so choose, I just think it's a bad idea. They are sovereign nations, and I'd fully support fighting the Ruski's if they decide that all those extra troops they want to put near the borders should have something to do (not bloody likely, but still). I just *hate* that Bush is polarizing the world, yet again, for his personal gain or glory. So if they're going to cooperate with the shield, they'd better demand some €€€.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Or are we witnessing something far worse, have the nineties been Russia's Weimar Republik - a brief interlude only serving to estrange the populace from liberal democracy?

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MY usual comparison and most fitting one - though I am not sure if Putin is more like Gustav Stresemann or going towards the one after him Mr. H...

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Germany has of course a complicated relationship with central and Eastern Europe, of which Schröder had to take notice in his dealings with Russia. But there is a fine line between being emphathy and identification. Schröder's personal relationship with Putin was outstanding. His foreign policy beneficial to the strategic interests needs of Russia and it's gas and oil industry. So beneficial to Russia in fact, that they offered Schröder a position at Gazprom immediately following his chancellorship, which he eagerly accepted.
This, the more cynically inclined would describe as a German chancellor apparantly having been on Russia's payroll. :wall:

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During recent estonian crisis he managed to say few kind words supporting Russia - he really is in love...:shame: the money he gets are another factor though.

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And Chirac, who followed the ancient Gaullist reflex of a 'Europe of nations, from the Atlantic to the Ural', in dealing with Russia. Gah! All those little get-togethers between Chirac, Schröder and Putin were becoming increasingly embarrassing. :no:

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These made France really 'popular' in Poland.:laugh4:





OVERALL

I wouldn't forget that it is the ELECTION YEAR in Russia. Putin's faction is only one of rivaling sides - most are somehow linked to him, but the man is not a real dictator - rather one of ex-KGB Petersburg 'school'.

Talking about prolonging the second term doesn't matter he will stay - but that can be used for the guy who will replace Putin.
THe new person would be someone from the 'Putin's guards' for sure and he will retain much influence, but the main question is how much.


I thionk that the main factor now is to convince the Russian population about the threat to the 'holy Russia' as usual when politics are concerned.
The next year will be full of incidents - I bet at least 5 with Poland - we are the usual enemy to demonise - Russians still manage to accuse us for sacking and occupying Moscow in 1610-12...
Imagine the UK so bitter about Dutch attacks in the XVIIth century - it might be funny, but it WORKS with Russian population.:wall:


The second objective, though is to divide the EU, play one country against another - mainly 'old Europe' against the 'new'. It worked to some extent earlier, so it is a very GOOD THING that as usual Kremlin 'overcharged' and pre-Russian leaders are slowly replaced by much more sceptical Sarkozy, Merkel etc.




About the 'cold war' - it is unlikely, but tension will remian - Ukraine, Belorus, Georgia, Moldova - will remain the tough issues.

Poland for at least last 150 years tries to undermine influence of Russia in those states (search for PROMETHEISM ideology for details) - now it is the entire EU which wakes up and moves towards such policy - I am glad it happens.:egypt:
Appeasement as we know is the worst solution.:thumbsdown:

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Originally Posted by cegorach

OVERALL

I wouldn't forget that it is the ELECTION YEAR in Russia. Putin's faction is only one of rivaling sides - most are somehow linked to him, but the man is not a real dictator - rather one of ex-KGB Petersburg 'school'.

Talking about prolonging the second term doesn't matter he will stay - but that can be used for the guy who will replace Putin.
THe new person would be someone from the 'Putin's guards' for sure and he will retain much influence, but the main question is how much.

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Well, yes. I mean considering even Gorbachov is in the news every now and then... The issue is, is Putin's successor going to be more conservative in the Mussolini style, or more foreign policy oriented. The thing is, Russia needs a tight state control over the industry, which is something Putin has been relaxing somewhat, to favour friends and colleagues.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

I thionk that the main factor now is to convince the Russian population about the threat to the 'holy Russia' as usual when politics are concerned.
The next year will be full of incidents - I bet at least 5 with Poland - we are the usual enemy to demonise - Russians still manage to accuse us for sacking and occupying Moscow in 1610-12...

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Ah, well. In fairness though, the poles manage to mention it everytime Russia is in the headlines. Maybe Poland should get over it too...

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Originally Posted by cegorach

The second objective, though is to divide the EU, play one country against another - mainly 'old Europe' against the 'new'. It worked to some extent earlier, so it is a very GOOD THING that as usual Kremlin 'overcharged' and pre-Russian leaders are slowly replaced by much more sceptical Sarkozy, Merkel etc.

Poland for at least last 150 years tries to undermine influence of Russia in those states (search for PROMETHEISM ideology for details) - now it is the entire EU which wakes up and moves towards such policy - I am glad it happens.:egypt:
Appeasement as we know is the worst solution.:thumbsdown:

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I agree with you here. Europe should eventually slap Russia so that they start doing something productive in the international scheme instead of bullying neighbours with their gas reserves.

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Originally Posted by SwordsMaster

Ah, well. In fairness though, the poles manage to mention it everytime Russia is in the headlines. Maybe Poland should get over it too...

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Maybe Russians should stop acussing us for imperialism every time - 1610-12 and the 'extermination of Soviet POWs in 1920' are the usual accusations - never mind if those are true at all.
Every time there is something to discuss I hear the same complains - it is like the Spanish never recovering from the defeat at Rocroi...
Why ? Because it is used again and again - all former and present enemies are mixed together with myths and ignorance so you get results like accuring Mongols for supporting catholic invasion or Poles, Jews, Georgians, Germans etc for oppressing Russian people and creating the Soviet Union...
It is madness - I am getting more and more frustrated with Russians - complete lack of knowledge, amnesia, conspiracy theories, inability to feel any responsibility - it is SCHIZOPHRENIC.

As much as Estonia is accused for Nazism, Georgia for supporting terrorism, Finland for killing of civilians in 1941 - the list of accusations addressed towards Poland is either very long and very faulty or short and composed of lies and amnesia.



Mind that present Russian schoolboks manage to remove everything considered 'non patriotic' - this is exactly the approach present in time of Weimar Republic - myths, complains and conspiracy theories mixed with nostalgia and dreams of revenge.


Considering the demographic situation of Russian Federation we will see it getting worse. I try to stay optimistic, but there is more and more to worry about.::skull:

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Mind that present Russian schoolboks manage to remove everything considered 'non patriotic' - this is exactly the approach present in time of Weimar Republic - myths, complains and conspiracy theories mixed with nostalgia and dreams of revenge.

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You need to update your library, dude.

So what happened to Igor Doluskiy's books ?:inquisitive:

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Maybe Russians should stop acussing us for imperialism every time - 1610-12 and the 'extermination of Soviet POWs in 1920' are the usual accusations - never mind if those are true at all.
Every time there is something to discuss I hear the same complains - it is like the Spanish never recovering from the defeat at Rocroi...
Why ?

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Please. If you asked the spanish pres, he wouldn't know what the hell Rocroi is, and neither would most spanish people. Besides, if Spain needed something to rant about against France, it would surely be Napoleon...

I think that any of these ultra-nationalistic ourbursts that are plaguing eastern europe at the moment (your president isn't all that cute and fuzzy either, btw) are just a sign of ignorance and frustration. Be it polish, russian, moldavian or estonian.

Thing is the frustration is not directed at themselves, which is what grown-ups do, but at the most suitable neigbour.

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

On the upside, Europe and the West at long last seem to be awakening to the danger. Merkel and Barosso finally stood up to Putain at the last EU/Russia summit. Sarkozy has an altogether different foreign perpective than Chirac, and the new foreign minister, Kouchner is a human rights champion. The UK, I recently learned, is in a shock not pussyfooting around mode over that polonium murder case.

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Lol, Freudian slip, Louis?

Rather amusingly (if it wasn't so serious) President Putin has called Bush's bluff.

Since the missile defence system is to protect the West from rogue states like Iran, Putin has offered the option of a joint Russian/US project based in their leased based in Azerbaijan. This would be much closer to the trouble spots, and cover Europe well too. And guarantees no threat to Russia. Oh and undermines NATO and the allies who wanted the security.

Clever.

It seems at times (reading present posts here and in other threads) that the historys of Europe and Russia play a pivitol role in the diplomacy and perceptions of the present day nations dealings with one another. Or, is it simply a method employed by the submitting participants nation to justify their present day actions?
[like in the usa]

Going back 800 years to justify an action taken today seems a bit of a stretch - radical even. As in the Jihadists claims to fighting against the new crusade of the Bushys and those nations that support him.

History can be used to demonstrate a nations repeating a failed policy (as in US's 'nam experience and todays Iraq policy), and an assortment of why one fears another or reason for the degree (s) of mistrust. But, using them (a 200 or 800 year event) to justify a present day 21st century policy seems a stretch to this descendent of a former colonialist (and revollusionary). Especially when there are so many examples of the past century that may demonstrate the "why" easier.

Still, since our ignorance of world history (we tend to think of it beginning with WWI and ending with WWII) is generally limited, this is probably a minority opinion.

P.S. The problem in Norway with the Soviet nuclear submarine rods is a crime. Since Russia cannot be depended on to resolve this, those that can must do so asap.

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Rather amusingly (if it wasn't so serious) President Putin has called Bush's bluff.

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Again, this is the same missle defense system that isnt fully operational deployed against a threat that dosent exsist yet? :dizzy2:

Bush handed Putin a gift for domestic consumption, has offerred it up as an option for eastern Europe to accept it or not, and changed the subject of the G8 from climate issues to Russian/U.S. relations.

Who's bluffing who?

of course i understand its not attractive to give bush credit for being savvy in anything, but the headlines coming out of Germany arent reading "U.S. fails to take lead on global warming" are they?

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Originally Posted by cegorach

The second objective, though is to divide the EU, play one country against another - mainly 'old Europe' against the 'new'. It worked to some extent earlier, so it is a very GOOD THING that as usual Kremlin 'overcharged' and pre-Russian leaders are slowly replaced by much more sceptical Sarkozy, Merkel etc.

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EU has nothing to do with peace between West European states. The coal and steel union and war fatigue after ww2 however has. The EU is a stupid waste of money with idiots spending tax money on deciding that banans can't be less than 11.65 centimeters and with abnormal curvature and that you can't call strawberries strawberries and has conferences about solving world poverty on a cruise in the Pacific with champagne and wives brought. The EU is an anti-democratic money wasting corrupt madhouse led by control freaks.

We don't need the EU to resist aggressive Russian policies. Mutual guarantees and defensive pacts work a lot better. And then we may actually have some tax money left to use on our military forces, rather than sending the money to champagne for Merkel, Sarkozy and Blair.

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Originally Posted by Odin

of course i understand its not attractive to give bush credit for being savvy in anything, but the headlines coming out of Germany arent reading "U.S. fails to take lead on global warming" are they?

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Interesting viewpoint, although I can assure you that climate change is still the headline over this side of the pond. As usual Blair is claiming credit for persuading President Bush to a Damascene conversion over global warming, and as usual he is overstating the case.

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Originally Posted by Banquo's Ghost

Interesting viewpoint, although I can assure you that climate change is still the headline over this side of the pond. As usual Blair is claiming credit for persuading President Bush to a Damascene conversion over global warming, and as usual he is overstating the case.

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Over here its been primarily U.S./ Russian relations. The way its playing out apparantly in the US and Russia is to a purely domestic crowd. I wont claim they are working together on it, but Bush premepted his visit to Germany with a new initiative on global warming.

Essentially its discussing what happens after Kyoto (he's buying time so his successor can handle it). So the Russians take offense to the missle shield, conviently before the G8 for bushy. Is he savvy enough to trump up the issue to take the heat off (pun intended) of his lack of action on global warming, and the europeans strident desire for the U.S. to climb on board with them?

I dont know, but I do know that international summits allow opporunity to change the subject (north korea is shooting off missles again, coincidence?). Bush dosent want to do move on global warming, and the main gist of this G8, was that issue.

Yes, Putin's Russia is a threat to global security.
Russia faces:
1) A population crisis that will see the number of Russians halve in the next 50 years, needless to say those who remain will be pensioners not workers.
2) A decline in gas and oil resources that keep Russia's moribund economy afloat, and an inability to start large-scale mining of Siberia's mineral wealth.
3) Rampant cronyism and corruption in both the public and the private sector within Russia, that will cripple any attempt to grow new sectors of Russian economic expertise to replace exhausted natural resources.
4) A Russian military that is underpaid, ill-equipped, and badly maintained resulting from Putin's desire to preserve a semblance of Soviet might via Russia's tiny economy means.
5) Russia watching almost all of its former Soviet satellite states desert in favour of the EU and NATO and thus representing a massive diminution of its sphere of influence.
6) The inexorable erosion of all mechanisms that facilitate and encourage good representative government in favour of an unaccountable autocracy.
7) An unwelcome flood of immigration in Siberia that now contains more Chinese than Russians, and an unwanted explosion in the Muslim population of the Caucasus regions, both of which promise social/political tension in future.

All of this while Putin encourages Russia's population with a visceral and volatile brand of nationalism that encourages people to hark back to the status of Soviet times.
In short; the people of Russia are watching their nations status as a Great Power slip from their fingers, and they are encouraged to hate and reject the fact.
It is going to be a nervous quarter century coming up for eastern european countries as Russia gets more and more desperate in the face of its own unwanted decline, but if they survive the next 25 years they are probably safe as Russia will by then be a toothless bear, far beyond any claim to Great Power status in the 21st century.

Q - How should the UK react?
A - We should increase the Defence budget from 2.2% of GDP to a more sensible 2.8% to show Russia that we are serious about insisting on a free, un-intimidated, and independent eastern europe forever.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

Yes, Putin's Russia is a threat to global security.
Russia faces:
1) A population crisis that will see the number of Russians halve in the next 50 years, needless to say those who remain will be pensioners not workers.

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Usually, population decline doesn't result in expansionism, imperialism and offensive warfare. On the contrary, the opposite more commonly does so.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

2) A decline in gas and oil resources that keep Russia's moribund economy afloat, and an inability to start large-scale mining of Siberia's mineral wealth.

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A smaller population means lower state incomes are needed to keep things afloat.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

3) Rampant cronyism and corruption in both the public and the private sector within Russia, that will cripple any attempt to grow new sectors of Russian economic expertise to replace exhausted natural resources.

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And also along with population decrease cripple any attempts at military expansion of any more ambitious kind. Only a lunatic would attack any larger country or support a leader doing so, in the state Russia is in at the moment. Still, we should always be vigilant and prepared for lunatics and unlikely actions, since lack of preparedness makes it more inviting for a lunatic to attempt it.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

4) A Russian military that is underpaid, ill-equipped, and badly maintained resulting from Putin's desire to preserve a semblance of Soviet might via Russia's tiny economy means.
5) Russia watching almost all of its former Soviet satellite states desert in favour of the EU and NATO and thus representing a massive diminution of its sphere of influence.
6) The inexorable erosion of all mechanisms that facilitate and encourage good representative government in favour of an unaccountable autocracy.
7) An unwelcome flood of immigration in Siberia that now contains more Chinese than Russians, and an unwanted explosion in the Muslim population of the Caucasus regions, both of which promise social/political tension in future.

All of this while Putin encourages Russia's population with a visceral and volatile brand of nationalism that encourages people to hark back to the status of Soviet times.
In short; the people of Russia are watching their nations status as a Great Power slip from their fingers, and they are encouraged to hate and reject the fact.
It is going to be a nervous quarter century coming up for eastern european countries as Russia gets more and more desperate in the face of its own unwanted decline, but if they survive the next 25 years they are probably safe as Russia will by then be a toothless bear, far beyond any claim to Great Power status in the 21st century.

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None of these things sound like really dangerous for non-Russians. It's the Russian population that will mainly suffer. Internal regime overthrowal struggles or breakout factions are far more likely than Russian offensive against anything more than a small country/province of a size and military strength comparable to Chechnya.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

Q - How should the UK react?
A - We should increase the Defence budget from 2.2% of GDP to a more sensible 2.8% to show Russia that we are serious about insisting on a free, un-intimidated, and independent eastern europe forever.

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This is a good thing, if the money is taken from the EU control freaks. Then I doubt it will weaken the long term economy, since the EU taxation and corruption is quite considerable.

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Originally Posted by SwordsMaster

Please. If you asked the spanish pres, he wouldn't know what the hell Rocroi is, and neither would most spanish people. Besides, if Spain needed something to rant about against France, it would surely be Napoleon...

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Perhaps I was ironic , don't you think so ?:inquisitive:

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I think that any of these ultra-nationalistic ourbursts that are plaguing eastern europe at the moment (your president isn't all that cute and fuzzy either, btw) are just a sign of ignorance and frustration. Be it polish, russian, moldavian or estonian.

Thing is the frustration is not directed at themselves, which is what grown-ups do, but at the most suitable neigbour.

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Ohh no you will not throw Estonia, Poland, Moldova etc to the same basket with Russia - different thing to be offended and different is to insult someone else.
It is like saying that Jews are to sensitive about this little H. event during the war...
I don't recall any of those countries starting a nation-wide hysteria like it is in Russia recently.
Of course anti-Russian sentiments are used, but Russia FUELS them more and more. Look around in the whole Europe - who says now 'we should be kind to Mr. Putin' - Zapatero ? I don't remember him talking about it at all and the rest are not very keen on the whole trouble with 'controlled democracy' in Russia.

When it comes to the RF.
It seems noone moderate is left out there - at least that is from my personal experience.
Hawkish attitude seems to dominate utterly and people either support it or remain silent.


Banquo's Ghost

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Rather amusingly (if it wasn't so serious) President Putin has called Bush's bluff.

Since the missile defence system is to protect the West from rogue states like Iran, Putin has offered the option of a joint Russian/US project based in their leased based in Azerbaijan. This would be much closer to the trouble spots, and cover Europe well too.

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Well... rather it is IN a trouble spot already. Azeris warned a couple of times that they can shut the base down..

Show to the press, nothing more.

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And guarantees no threat to Russia.

Oh and undermines NATO and the allies who wanted the security.

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A delaying action - I can't imagine Americans deploying anything larger out there. A supplementary station would be the only foreseenable (and unlikely) option.

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Clever.

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Plays for the public inside Russia - 'we showed them again' etc.:yes:

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Ohh no you will not throw Estonia, Poland, Moldova etc to the same basket with Russia - different thing to be offended and different is to insult someone else.
It is like saying that Jews are to sensitive about this little H. event during the war...

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So what you are doing now... you're not really doing? Also, because you don't like the ancient evil Zerg spawn that is Russia, it doesn't matter what Poland does now?

Also, I really hope you realize that the Jews were not the only ones who suffered in the Holocaust.

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Originally Posted by LegioXXXUlpiaVictrix

Usually, population decline doesn't result in expansionism, imperialism and offensive warfare. On the contrary, the opposite more commonly does so.


A smaller population means lower state incomes are needed to keep things afloat.

And also along with population decrease cripple any attempts at military expansion of any more ambitious kind. Only a lunatic would attack any larger country or support a leader doing so, in the state Russia is in at the moment. Still, we should always be vigilant and prepared for lunatics and unlikely actions, since lack of preparedness makes it more inviting for a lunatic to attempt it.

None of these things sound like really dangerous for non-Russians. It's the Russian population that will mainly suffer. Internal regime overthrowal struggles or breakout factions are far more likely than Russian offensive against anything more than a small country/province of a size and military strength comparable to Chechnya.

This is a good thing, if the money is taken from the EU control freaks. Then I doubt it will weaken the long term economy, since the EU taxation and corruption is quite considerable.

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a population of 100 million russians is still more than enough to consider taking on 80 million germans, let alone 40 millions poles and a few millions baltics.

a deceasing/aging population combined with desperation could lead to all kinds of trouble, especially when combined with an agrieved nationalism.

agreed, preparedness is exactly what is needed, please let europe prepare away, if only for the sake of the poor baltic states.

i'm not so sure, it wouldn't be dangerous if it wasn't being fueled by a very nasty breed of chippy nationalism, that feels the loss of the soviet empire and russian regional power to be a bad thing.

you lost me on the last comment,

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Perhaps I was ironic , don't you think so ?:inquisitive:

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I understand, yet my point is that in Spain at least nationalism, specially the particularly vocal kind that is rampaging through eastern Europe now is reminiscent of the times of Franco, and not widely promoted. Unite to that the general ignorance and lack of interest of the populace and you'll get quite a picture...

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Ohh no you will not throw Estonia, Poland, Moldova etc to the same basket with Russia - different thing to be offended and different is to insult someone else.
It is like saying that Jews are to sensitive about this little H. event during the war...
I don't recall any of those countries starting a nation-wide hysteria like it is in Russia recently.
Of course anti-Russian sentiments are used, but Russia FUELS them more and more. Look around in the whole Europe - who says now 'we should be kind to Mr. Putin' - Zapatero ? I don't remember him talking about it at all and the rest are not very keen on the whole trouble with 'controlled democracy' in Russia.

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I will throw anybody i fancy into the basket, since it is my opinion I am defending. Besides, saying "we only hate them because they hate us" isn't really all that adult, is it?

And it isn't just Russia, can you say that Poland and Germany don't have a strained relationship?

And i don't really know which nation-wide hysteria you are referring to. Putin's speeches? that is hardly nation-wide and definitely is not hysteria...


P.S. I am not defending Russia, btw. I'm just pointing out that to be able to accuse someone of being intolerant one must hold some kind of higher moral ground, which Poland doesn't.

And, for the record, and so people don't accuse me of being "an ignorant foreigner", I have family on both sides of the russo-polish border.

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Originally Posted by SwordsMaster

Besides, saying "we only hate them because they hate us" isn't really all that adult, is it?

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Sorry, but it is not 'we hate them because they hate us' but responding to Russia trying to revise the history to its favour once again.
It is returning imperial way of thinking from Tzars' period.

I notice some of our politicians trying to exploit it, but it is NOTHING compared to what is happening out there.
I am really worried by increasing xenophobia and extreme nationalism in Russia - it is getting everywhere - even to pop culture.

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And it isn't just Russia, can you say that Poland and Germany don't have a strained relationship?

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The fact that leaders of our idiotic government are very distrustful of Germany has little or none impact in other areas of cooperation.
I find stupid they are responding to some few extremists of the 'expelled' organisations as if these are representing ALL political forces in Germany - clearly overreacting with the full incompetence of this government, however it is NOTHING comapared to the relationship with Russia.

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And i don't really know which nation-wide hysteria you are referring to. Putin's speeches? that is hardly nation-wide and definitely is not hysteria...

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Have a look around what happened after the monument in Estonia was moved - blockade of their embassy in Moscow, calling for embargo, hacker attacks, insults everywhere and the results of the recent poll which says that 60% of asked Russians sauid it is ESTONIA which is the prime enemy of Russia. Not to mention the usual rabbish that Estonians are nazis.

And that is just a fraction of the hysteria.

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I am not defending Russia, btw. I'm just pointing out that to be able to accuse someone of being intolerant one must hold some kind of higher moral ground, which Poland doesn't.

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Don't make me laugh... Clearly you have no idea what you are talking about here.
Is Poland imposing embargo on Russian products, threatening it with military response, maybe with blocking Russian export to Europe or by refusing to give visas to the Russians ?
Sabre rattling is overwhelmingly one sided from our side it is so limited that almost doesn't exists and comes as a response.
Tell me what incident exactly was started by for example Polish side ?

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And, for the record, and so people don't accuse me of being "an ignorant foreigner", I have family on both sides of the russo-polish border.

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That is why I am treatening your anwers SERIOUSLY. And that is why ignorance doesn't save you.

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Originally Posted by CrossLOPER

So what you are doing now... you're not really doing? Also, because you don't like the ancient evil Zerg spawn that is Russia, it doesn't matter what Poland does now?

Also, I really hope you realize that the Jews were not the only ones who suffered in the Holocaust.

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Better luck next time - that was REALLY a very weak response.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Sorry, but it is not 'we hate them because they hate us' but responding to Russia trying to revise the history to its favour once again.
It is returning imperial way of thinking from Tzars' period.

I notice some of our politicians trying to exploit it, but it is NOTHING compared to what is happening out there.
I am really worried by increasing xenophobia and extreme nationalism in Russia - it is getting everywhere - even to pop culture.

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I have not heard or read of anyone's revisiting of history, since thatd'be too ambitious in the general ignorant tendency of mass control used by politicians everywhere. Russian nationalism is getting uncomfortable, yes, but raising XVII century issues says something about polish insecurities.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

The fact that leaders of our idiotic government are very distrustful of Germany has little or none impact in other areas of cooperation.
I find stupid they are responding to some few extremists of the 'expelled' organisations as if these are representing ALL political forces in Germany - clearly overreacting with the full incompetence of this government, however it is NOTHING comapared to the relationship with Russia.

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Agreed. But think of the causes. If Poland was not in the EU, the relationship with Germany would be, in all likelyhood, a lot worse.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Have a look around what happened after the monument in Estonia was moved - blockade of their embassy in Moscow, calling for embargo, hacker attacks, insults everywhere and the results of the recent poll which says that 60% of asked Russians sauid it is ESTONIA which is the prime enemy of Russia. Not to mention the usual rabbish that Estonians are nazis.

And that is just a fraction of the hysteria.

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Well, since you know how strongly most Warsaw pact coutries feel about Russia, why do you assume russians don't feel about it just as strongly? Why do you think that people who still remember those episodes should be ashamed of serving in the army and risking death? And more importantly, why should they be insulted?

Don't get me wrong, Russia's outrage added even more insult to them, but estonian intolerance towards russian immigrants goes way back to the 90s. Kind of odd, since those immigrants represent 20% of the population.

Don't you think they should be better represented politically? Don't you think there is a reason why they are not?

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Don't make me laugh... Clearly you have no idea what you are talking about here.
Is Poland imposing embargo on Russian products, threatening it with military response, maybe with blocking Russian export to Europe or by refusing to give visas to the Russians ?
Sabre rattling is overwhelmingly one sided from our side it is so limited that almost doesn't exists and comes as a response.
Tell me what incident exactly was started by for example Polish side ?

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Poland would reciprocate if they could, and you know this as much as I do. If Poland didn't depend on Russia for fuels, and most importantly if Germany didn't depend on Poland for russian fuels, the situation would have escalated a long time ago.

And visas to Russia, just as a side point, are hard to get here too. It isn't just Poland.

i'm with cegorach on this, the nationalism displayed by russia, and the nationalism russian people are encouraged to display is very worrying.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

a population of 100 million russians is still more than enough to consider taking on 80 million germans, let alone 40 millions poles and a few millions baltics.

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That's rather funny for several reasons.
1. Population is not everything, technology and tactics play a great role
2. Attacking a NATO country doesn't mean you fight only the population of that single country
3. Attacking an EU country will probably not be tolerated by most other EU/NATO countries anyway
4. Starting a war in Europe these days sounds like a very bad idea to me in general, anyone who does will be overrun by angry protesting mobs of our green parties.:hippie:

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Sorry, but it is not 'we hate them because they hate us' but responding to Russia trying to revise the history to its favour once again.
It is returning imperial way of thinking from Tzars' period.

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Example plox.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

I notice some of our politicians trying to exploit it, but it is NOTHING compared to what is happening out there.

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Good for them?

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Originally Posted by cegorach

I am really worried by increasing xenophobia and extreme nationalism in Russia - it is getting everywhere - even to pop culture.

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OK, granted we have our own share of skinheads, as does Poland btw, but please give me the source to this pop culture reference.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

The fact that leaders of our idiotic government are very distrustful of Germany has little or none impact in other areas of cooperation.
I find stupid they are responding to some few extremists of the 'expelled' organisations as if these are representing ALL political forces in Germany - clearly overreacting with the full incompetence of this government, however it is NOTHING comapared to the relationship with Russia.

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OK... perhaps you are a little paranoid?

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Have a look around what happened after the monument in Estonia was moved - blockade of their embassy in Moscow, calling for embargo, hacker attacks, insults everywhere and the results of the recent poll which says that 60% of asked Russians sauid it is ESTONIA which is the prime enemy of Russia. Not to mention the usual rabbish that Estonians are nazis.

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Well, to be frank, moving a monument that is dedicatef the efforts of millions DAYS BEFORE VICTORY DAY is not an itelligent move. It is a blatent insult... not commited by Russia. Outcry from such an action is to be expected, but WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED, other than the cyber hacks of course?

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Originally Posted by cegorach

And that is just a fraction of the hysteria.

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OK, I'll take your word for it.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Don't make me laugh... Clearly you have no idea what you are talking about here.
Is Poland imposing embargo on Russian products, threatening it with military response, maybe with blocking Russian export to Europe or by refusing to give visas to the Russians ?

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Poland really can't afford to do any of those things, niether can Russia to an extent, actually.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Sabre rattling is overwhelmingly one sided from our side it is so limited that almost doesn't exists and comes as a response.

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Tell me what incident exactly was started by for example Polish side ?
See previous answer.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

That is why I am treatening your anwers SERIOUSLY. And that is why ignorance doesn't save you.

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I know you didn't aim this at me, but I really like this part.

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Originally Posted by SwordsMaster

I have not heard or read of anyone's revisiting of history, since thatd'be too ambitious in the general ignorant tendency of mass control used by politicians everywhere. Russian nationalism is getting uncomfortable, yes, but raising XVII century issues says something about polish insecurities.

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Did I miss something - when the hell Poland rised such issues ?:inquisitive:

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Agreed. But think of the causes. If Poland was not in the EU, the relationship with Germany would be, in all likelyhood, a lot worse.

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If Poland wasn't in the EU the current government wouldn't be in power and except some politicians and organisations on both sides it is no bigger problem.

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Well, since you know how strongly most Warsaw pact coutries feel about Russia, why do you assume russians don't feel about it just as strongly? Why do you think that people who still remember those episodes should be ashamed of serving in the army and risking death? And more importantly, why should they be insulted?

Don't get me wrong, Russia's outrage added even more insult to them, but estonian intolerance towards russian immigrants goes way back to the 90s. Kind of odd, since those immigrants represent 20% of the population.

Don't you think they should be better represented politically? Don't you think there is a reason why they are not?

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30 % if I am not wrong.

Sorry, but it is much complex issu than Estonians pppressing the Russians and moving monuments to insult them.

There was a thread about it some time ago anyway.

The way Russia reacted was really shocking, but I can bet if the monument was moved 5 years earlier there wound't be much discussion about it.

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Poland would reciprocate if they could, and you know this as much as I do. If Poland didn't depend on Russia for fuels, and most importantly if Germany didn't depend on Poland for russian fuels, the situation would have escalated a long time ago.

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So you are telling that 'Poland has no moral highground' because it is as much guilty for the whole conflict as Russia and when I ask for FACTS confirming that your are covering your inability to point one or two by another unproven speculation.:wall:

Answer please - how many and what incidents in Polish-Russian relationship was started by Poland and Poland was guilty of that ?


AND what exactly do you mean - things would escalated a long time ago - WHAT things ? Burning Russian embassy, acts of terrorism - I simply don't know that do you mean.:juggle2:

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And visas to Russia, just as a side point, are hard to get here too. It isn't just Poland.

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It was an example of possible 'escalation' from our side - I didn't mean any Russian ideas - for now nothing getting wrong in that area.:2thumbsup:




CrossLOPER

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Originally Posted by cegorach
Sorry, but it is not 'we hate them because they hate us' but responding to Russia trying to revise the history to its favour once again.
It is returning imperial way of thinking from Tzars' period.

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Example plox.

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'Attacking' Russia is a blasphemy - just follow the though - you will see how often it is used nowadays.

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Originally Posted by cegorach
I am really worried by increasing xenophobia and extreme nationalism in Russia - it is getting everywhere - even to pop culture.

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OK, granted we have our own share of skinheads, as does Poland btw, but please give me the source to this pop culture reference.

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Russia has about 30-40 % of world's share of skinheads and a number of racially based crimes is increasing at large rate. Poland is in this area one of safest countries in Europe. I suggest not to use such relativisation because you really cannot compete here...

Zanna Bichevskaya - I hope I spelled it correctly.

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Originally Posted by cegorach
The fact that leaders of our idiotic government are very distrustful of Germany has little or none impact in other areas of cooperation.
I find stupid they are responding to some few extremists of the 'expelled' organisations as if these are representing ALL political forces in Germany - clearly overreacting with the full incompetence of this government, however it is NOTHING comapared to the relationship with Russia.

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OK... perhaps you are a little paranoid?

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I am afraid most of Human Right organisations are even more 'paranoid'.

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Originally Posted by cegorach
Have a look around what happened after the monument in Estonia was moved - blockade of their embassy in Moscow, calling for embargo, hacker attacks, insults everywhere and the results of the recent poll which says that 60% of asked Russians sauid it is ESTONIA which is the prime enemy of Russia. Not to mention the usual rabbish that Estonians are nazis.

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Well, to be frank, moving a monument that is dedicatef the efforts of millions DAYS BEFORE VICTORY DAY is not an itelligent move. It is a blatent insult... not commited by Russia. Outcry from such an action is to be expected, but WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED, other than the cyber hacks of course?

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Ohh COME ON ! Do I need to quote news from Russia for last couple of weeks ?:wall:

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Originally Posted by cegorach
Don't make me laugh... Clearly you have no idea what you are talking about here.
Is Poland imposing embargo on Russian products, threatening it with military response, maybe with blocking Russian export to Europe or by refusing to give visas to the Russians ?

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Poland really can't afford to do any of those things, niether can Russia to an extent, actually.

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Well it does - embargo, boycott and cutting supplies are extensively used by Russia.:yes:

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Originally Posted by cegorach
Sabre rattling is overwhelmingly one sided from our side it is so limited that almost doesn't exists and comes as a response.
Tell me what incident exactly was started by for example Polish side ?

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See previous answer.

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You too...

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Originally Posted by cegorach
That is why I am treatening your anwers SERIOUSLY. And that is why ignorance doesn't save you.

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I know you didn't aim this at me, but I really like this part.

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I know Swordsmaster for some time, even got his phone number so obviously he is is judged far more harshly than ordinary members.:laugh4:

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Originally Posted by Husar

That's rather funny for several reasons.
1. Population is not everything, technology and tactics play a great role
2. Attacking a NATO country doesn't mean you fight only the population of that single country
3. Attacking an EU country will probably not be tolerated by most other EU/NATO countries anyway
4. Starting a war in Europe these days sounds like a very bad idea to me in general, anyone who does will be overrun by angry protesting mobs of our green parties.:hippie:

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guess what, i agree with you.

but:
1. Russia is not at all happy that its population is crashing vis-a-vis Germany, its prime continental european threat. but germany was only comparative, it is far more likely that poland or the baltic states would be the ones to suffer. but it does increase the FUD level at a time of rising nationalism.
2. How very true, which is precisely why Putin has gone to such very great lengths to cause a diplomatic crisis days before the G8 crisis by threatening to target european cities as a result of americas missile and radar bases in europe. those nasty yanks bringing strife and armageddon to peaceful and enlightened europe, such baddies!
3. Precisely why Putin is not terribly happy about Poland and the baltic states joining the EU/NATO, because it moves them under the latters sphere of protection and away from russia's hegemony. again, more desperation.
4. Rather than worry about your hippies, you might find that russia is laughing at your armed forces.
http://www.comw.org/pda/9911eur.html#4
Germany has two military aims:
a) To provide massed panzer divisions on the eastern border braced to defend against the next onslaught or russian tanks.
b) To provide a high-tech agile force capable of being deployed and supported abroad so they can be big-players internationally like france and the UK.
Unfortunately, germany won't seriously fund its armed forces to achieve both aims, and it won't give up either of its expensive objectives which means that it cannot afford either a heavy defensive force or a hi-tech rapid reaction force. It is the worst of both worlds and the Bundeswhere is seriously suffering because of it.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Did I miss something - when the hell Poland rised such issues ?:inquisitive:

If Poland wasn't in the EU the current government wouldn't be in power and except some politicians and organisations on both sides it is no bigger problem.

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If I may refer you to:

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Maybe Russians should stop acussing us for imperialism every time - 1610-12 and the 'extermination of Soviet POWs in 1920' are the usual accusations - never mind if those are true at all.

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Ant it was also completely irrelevant to the conversation.

True, but would the government be more open to collaboration with Russia or Germany? Or would it be even more nationalistic? That is my question.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

30 % if I am not wrong.

Sorry, but it is much complex issu than Estonians pppressing the Russians and moving monuments to insult them.

There was a thread about it some time ago anyway.

The way Russia reacted was really shocking, but I can bet if the monument was moved 5 years earlier there wound't be much discussion about it.

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You are furthering my point. A nation can't afford to discriminate and misrepresent a third of its workforce.

And perhaps there wouldn't be so much discussion, but that means both governments should have timed it better.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

So you are telling that 'Poland has no moral highground' because it is as much guilty for the whole conflict as Russia and when I ask for FACTS confirming that your are covering your inability to point one or two by another unproven speculation.:wall:

Answer please - how many and what incidents in Polish-Russian relationship was started by Poland and Poland was guilty of that ?

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I am saying that Poland has no moral highround since it has not taken any steps to improve the relationship with Russia, and all it does is point the finger at Russia and shout "But look at them, they're EVIL!". I think that is hypocritical at the least.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

AND what exactly do you mean - things would escalated a long time ago - WHAT things ? Burning Russian embassy, acts of terrorism - I simply don't know that do you mean.:juggle2:

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I know that Poland (or any others dependant on Russian fuels for that matter) would have a much more hostile foreign policy towards Russia if they did not depend on the oil. The fact that they just talk about it and then do nothing, is either cowardly or hypocritical, neither of those qualities I admire.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

I know Swordsmaster for some time, even got his phone number so obviously he is is judged far more harshly than ordinary members.:laugh4:

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Well, thanks for that :2thumbsup: Maybe you can get me a pint instead... One thing I do like about Poland is beer...

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Originally Posted by SwordsMaster

Ant it was also completely irrelevant to the conversation.

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Ehem. Russian government (and Russians) are using the long irrelevant issues - ask them why they are doing it.
Most of Poles whoactually remember about occupation of Kremlin treat it in same way as Brits talking about Waterloo - a thing from far past...
To the Russians it is the ultimate proof that Poland is imperialist and anti-Russian. Selective memory and rather very bold nationalism I must add.
That is why I said about Rocroi.

Notice that reannactment teams from Poland and Sweden annually 'fight' at Gniew (Mewe) and Kircholm and I don't hear anyone talking about reviving nationalism or Swedes complaining for Polish aggression because of events in 1598, however in Russia years 1610-12 are getting back to society's conscience - Poland has nothing to do with such initiative.

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True, but would the government be more open to collaboration with Russia or Germany? Or would it be even more nationalistic? That is my question.

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To cooperate you need two sides. I see no real changes in relations with Germany (except some politicians) - especially on personal level.
In Russia it is clearly a political question - though the relations are definetelly THE BEST IN WHOLE HISTORY.

About political developments - only fear of the EU gave enough supporters to the minor coalition partners ( both however are indifferent or pro-Russian) - now both are rated at 8 % support in surveys - and it is likely both wouldn't got to the parliament at all this time.
PiS is the biggest conservative party and will remian an important party after the next elections, though mainly because they don't involve themselves with economic issues (fortunatelly) and their voters buy their warlike (internally) attitude - foreign affairs under their leadership suffer greatly from incompetence and inactivity. Actually supposedly 'pro-Russian' parties had to deal with bigger issues and made moves which were seen as more anti-Russian in the RF. Just like in 2004 with Ukraine.

Note that ALL political forces (except both minor populist parties) are sceptical about Russia - even those with the origin in post-communist left - which is the result of Russian inactivity/lack of will to discuss anything.
Apparently they want it to stay tense and difficult or do not care at all - neo-imperialism doesn't help either.

As I said you need the will of two sides first...

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You are furthering my point. A nation can't afford to discriminate and misrepresent a third of its workforce.

And perhaps there wouldn't be so much discussion, but that means both governments should have timed it better.

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Estonians could time it better, though the move remains justified. Whole eastern Europe except former ex-Soviet states did remove such monuments a long time ago and noone complained.
In Poland it is the decision of local communities which can decide if they want to or not.
Estonia apparently did do it so late because it didn't want to endanger relations with Russia thinking it will be better to wait with such move - in my opinion it was too late to avoid tension - current Russian authorities re-build imperial pride mixing tzarist and soviet tradition so the response was so wide-reaching and hysterical.

It is far worse that most of the Russians I have contact with have no idea what that monument meant to Estonians and why , many simply even don't know it was just moved and NOT destroyed...:dizzy2:

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I am saying that Poland has no moral highround since it has not taken any steps to improve the relationship with Russia, and all it does is point the finger at Russia and shout "But look at them, they're EVIL!". I think that is hypocritical at the least.

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???

Sorry but what exactly are you thinking about ? There is nothing to apologise Russians for ? Because I don't have a clue what kind of improvements do you mean ? One sided forgiveness and tolerance to Russian vision of history which is getting more and more derailed and closer to pure imperialist nationalism ?

Tell me what exactly is wrong here ? Is there some elaborate plot to undermine Russia ? Is Poland oppressing Russians living here ( except sending two Russian bands for Eurovision contest in a row...) or imposing some sort of sanctions ? You might want to ask the Russians from Kaliningrad oblast - they are in Poland far more often than in Russia - I doubt anyone of them even got beaten in Poland for last 2 decades.

If improving relations means inactivity and agreement to anything - it is nothing more than vassalship.

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I know that Poland (or any others dependant on Russian fuels for that matter) would have a much more hostile foreign policy towards Russia if they did not depend on the oil. The fact that they just talk about it and then do nothing, is either cowardly or hypocritical, neither of those qualities I admire.

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Great now we are not only nationalistic, but also cowardly....
Talk about what ???? You are assuming that the only thing which stops Poland from DOWing Russia is its oil ? Fear of embargo or nuclear fallout ?
Since early 1990s I hear the same threats and baseless accusations- we will target you with our missiles, Poland should stop 'supporting Chechen terrorism', 'Poland undermines excellent relations with the rest of Europe' etc. Pure propaganda.
I don't really know what you are suggesting. What interests do we have in Russia except partner relationship and dealing with us on equal terms ?
Sorry but that was very immature and frankly utterly biased.

The thing is that I can't even think of something justifying your statement - please explain, I am especially curious about your sources.
I usually at least have some remote idea what could be a source of certain opinions - here I have none...:juggle2:

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Well, thanks for that :2thumbsup: Maybe you can get me a pint instead... One thing I do like about Poland is beer...

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Too late...:laugh4: I was in Dublin three times, but that was 2 years ago. Besides now you should get - for example - Tyskie everywhere.:whip:

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Ehem. Russian government (and Russians) are using the long irrelevant issues - ask them why they are doing it.
Most of Poles whoactually remember about occupation of Kremlin treat it in same way as Brits talking about Waterloo - a thing from far past...
To the Russians it is the ultimate proof that Poland is imperialist and anti-Russian. Selective memory and rather very bold nationalism I must add.
That is why I said about Rocroi.

Notice that reannactment teams from Poland and Sweden annually 'fight' at Gniew (Mewe) and Kircholm and I don't hear anyone talking about reviving nationalism or Swedes complaining for Polish aggression because of events in 1598, however in Russia years 1610-12 are getting back to society's conscience - Poland has nothing to do with such initiative.

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Well, in the current issue of american anti-missile bases, I have not read the 1612 war mentioned once in any of the sources I read. And it seemed to be the first thing that you came up with as soon as the issue was mentioned.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

To cooperate you need two sides. I see no real changes in relations with Germany (except some politicians) - especially on personal level.
In Russia it is clearly a political question - though the relations are definetelly THE BEST IN WHOLE HISTORY.

About political developments - only fear of the EU gave enough supporters to the minor coalition partners ( both however are indifferent or pro-Russian) - now both are rated at 8 % support in surveys - and it is likely both wouldn't got to the parliament at all this time.
PiS is the biggest conservative party and will remian an important party after the next elections, though mainly because they don't involve themselves with economic issues (fortunatelly) and their voters buy their warlike (internally) attitude - foreign affairs under their leadership suffer greatly from incompetence and inactivity. Actually supposedly 'pro-Russian' parties had to deal with bigger issues and made moves which were seen as more anti-Russian in the RF. Just like in 2004 with Ukraine.

Note that ALL political forces (except both minor populist parties) are sceptical about Russia - even those with the origin in post-communist left - which is the result of Russian inactivity/lack of will to discuss anything.
Apparently they want it to stay tense and difficult or do not care at all - neo-imperialism doesn't help either.

As I said you need the will of two sides first...

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Sorry but what exactly are you thinking about ? There is nothing to apologise Russians for ? Because I don't have a clue what kind of improvements do you mean ? One sided forgiveness and tolerance to Russian vision of history which is getting more and more derailed and closer to pure imperialist nationalism ?

Tell me what exactly is wrong here ? Is there some elaborate plot to undermine Russia ? Is Poland oppressing Russians living here ( except sending two Russian bands for Eurovision contest in a row...) or imposing some sort of sanctions ? You might want to ask the Russians from Kaliningrad oblast - they are in Poland far more often than in Russia - I doubt anyone of them even got beaten in Poland for last 2 decades.

If improving relations means inactivity and agreement to anything - it is nothing more than vassalship.

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Well, true two sides are needed. But small steps can be taken. I doubt that Russia would say no if the polish foreign minister invited, say Russia and Ukraine to discuss some economic programs that were actually constructive. It doesn't involve kissing up to Russia or accepting its superiority or anything like that, just a meeting between business partners. And yet it hasn't been done. The nationalistic feeling is stronger than common sense which is the source of the problems both in Poland and in Russia.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Great now we are not only nationalistic, but also cowardly....
Talk about what ???? You are assuming that the only thing which stops Poland from DOWing Russia is its oil ? Fear of embargo or nuclear fallout ?
Since early 1990s I hear the same threats and baseless accusations- we will target you with our missiles, Poland should stop 'supporting Chechen terrorism', 'Poland undermines excellent relations with the rest of Europe' etc. Pure propaganda.
I don't really know what you are suggesting. What interests do we have in Russia except partner relationship and dealing with us on equal terms ?
Sorry but that was very immature and frankly utterly biased.

The thing is that I can't even think of something justifying your statement - please explain, I am especially curious about your sources.
I usually at least have some remote idea what could be a source of certain opinions - here I have none...:juggle2:

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I don't think Poland would ever DoW Russia on its own. Those times are gone, and by now everyone knows better than to march on Moscow, right?

I am not saying russian propaganda is right (hell, didn't they accuse Finland of supporting chechen terrorism at some stage?) but what I'm saying is that if Poland didn't want to deal with them, it should refrain from pointing fingers, and severe the relationship completely. Or actually work on improving it. This kind of middle ground is like a bad marriage, all bickering and noone's getting laid... Which leads to more bickering.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Too late...:laugh4: I was in Dublin three times, but that was 2 years ago. Besides now you should get - for example - Tyskie everywhere.:whip:

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We get Zhivets (sp) here. A lot. In any case I might foray into Poland sometime, visit the land of the ancestors and such. In the Krakow area. I'm starting to get tired of Dublin myself... Or maybe I'll join Beirut cutting trees in Canada... Decisions:sweatdrop:

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Originally Posted by SwordsMaster

Well, in the current issue of american anti-missile bases, I have not read the 1612 war mentioned once in any of the sources I read. And it seemed to be the first thing that you came up with as soon as the issue was mentioned.

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I came with this as an EXAMPLE what issues ALWAYS appear when I see the subject of Polish-German relationship. Sadly it always does - perhaps because there is little knowledge about such issues and perhaps because the russian side has little to find and use against Poland.

It is good that internet community is somehow a little better informed, though I find TCW forum a phenomenon of utter ignorance contrary to places as OiM forum or Russian TWOW forum.

I don't even tauch a subject of press texts in Russia - I thought that the SUN and our Fact are bad until I have seen Konsomolskaya Pravda...:shame:

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Well, true two sides are needed. But small steps can be taken. I doubt that Russia would say no if the polish foreign minister invited, say Russia and Ukraine to discuss some economic programs that were actually constructive. It doesn't involve kissing up to Russia or accepting its superiority or anything like that, just a meeting between business partners. And yet it hasn't been done. The nationalistic feeling is stronger than common sense which is the source of the problems both in Poland and in Russia.

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Hey, the problem ARE the economic issues, though with Russia not Ukraine - with Ukraine relationship is almost ideal, especially now.

POlish expoer to ussia is about 4% of our entire export so nothing really, but actually here there are the biggest problems - embargo on meat was started in early 2005 and I must admitt that anyone would loose patience with russian authorities up to now. It is just one of many incidents.

Around once per every two weeks there is an incident with Russia since... I have no idea how long - some so ridiculous that I can't belive Russian Foreign Office can come with such ideas in the first place, more to support it and continue....

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I don't think Poland would ever DoW Russia on its own. Those times are gone, and by now everyone knows better than to march on Moscow, right?

I am not saying russian propaganda is right (hell, didn't they accuse Finland of supporting chechen terrorism at some stage?) but what I'm saying is that if Poland didn't want to deal with them, it should refrain from pointing fingers, and severe the relationship completely. Or actually work on improving it. This kind of middle ground is like a bad marriage, all bickering and noone's getting laid... Which leads to more bickering.

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Our curent foriegn mrs. minister might be less smart than a half-rotten banana (and so much charming), but in the issue of relationship with Russia NOTHING changes since Puting got into power. I really mean - nothing whatever option is in power here and whoever is a foreign minister. Face it - there is an interest on their side to keep it bad - it is like negotiating with the Borg... You need at least a moderate interest on their side.

Mind that the beginning wasn't so bad - Putin visited Poland and at that time even commemorated heroes of underground - the same which was called by the Soviets 'Hitler's collaborators, fascist scums and cutthroats' - that was good, but suddenly all stopped few months later and is getting worse from that moment.

Now it is incredibly frustrating - people who like Russia and Russians, experts in their culture very respected in Russia are getting furious talking that 'policy of concrete wall' is returning that total ignorance is once again dominating, even fashionable. Well... it is not the later XIXth century - certainly the worst time in the relationship between our nations, but indifference and ignorance are formidable obstacles when dealing their people, not to mention politicians...
Geez I am still amazed that so many ordinary people I have some contact with are totally ignorant and do not even consider checking other sources. I caught myself telling some of them what THEIR government did do in some cases sometimes quoting Russian sources they should know - horrible.:wall:

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We get Zhivets (sp) here. A lot. In any case I might foray into Poland sometime, visit the land of the ancestors and such. In the Krakow area. I'm starting to get tired of Dublin myself... Or maybe I'll join Beirut cutting trees in Canada... Decisions:sweatdrop:

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I have heard that Zywiec is somehow worse when sold in the UK and Ireland - have no idea why.

And try to avoid Kraków - British/Irish 'tourists' have shameful reputation - some places simply don't allow them to enter after some their drunken countrymen did before.
It always amazes my how those guys can behave this way when they leave their homeland - but that is off topic.


For a good place to visit - I advise Wroclaw - one of fastest developing Polish cities right now and still not besieged by British/Scandinavian/German drunkers such as Szczecin, Gdansk-Gdynia-Sopot (Tripple City) or especially Kraków. On the other hand it seems that Warsaw finally will be more than a large gathering of workaholics - but not untill 2012...

P.S. I hope that Wroclaw will not become a target of those barbarians before you will see it - it was completely destroyed during the 2nd WW and this time it might have a bigger problem...I reckon.:dizzy2:

Heh, the wonders of globalisation... I am interested in Krakow, since my grandmother is from there... I'll speak russian or ukranian and try looking sober...

Thanks for the advice though.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

'Attacking' Russia is a blasphemy - just follow the though - you will see how often it is used nowadays.

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The relocation of the statue was said to be blasphemy. Those who said it were upset. Honestly, I don't see what's so horrible with an emotional reaction that was fairly justified. Moving that statue in May was not the brightest decision.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Russia has about 30-40 % of world's share of skinheads and a number of racially based crimes is increasing at large rate. Poland is in this area one of safest countries in Europe. I suggest not to use such relativisation because you really cannot compete here...

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30-40%? Proof.

Hate crime rates are increasing, but at a comparable rate to the United States. Also, they are concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

For your point about the peacefulness of Poland, I concure. Time magazine recently published an article on peaceful nations. Poland made twenty-fifth. Congratulations.

Although overall, Russia and Poland are incomparable.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Zanna Bichevskaya - I hope I spelled it correctly.

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OK, I'll give you this relic. However, she does not encompass Russian pop culture... so... Unless you can find me a video of Kristina Orbakaite singing racially deragatory things, I'm sorry.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Ohh COME ON ! Do I need to quote news from Russia for last couple of weeks ?:wall:

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Specifics would be nice.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Well it does - embargo, boycott and cutting supplies are extensively used by Russia.:yes:

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My father was recently in Russia with relatives and there were plenty of Polish products in the open-air markets. More-over, this was Moscow. I guess someone found a way around this crippling boycott that the major... called for.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

You too...

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K.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

I know Swordsmaster for some time, even got his phone number so obviously he is is judged far more harshly than ordinary members.:laugh4:

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Spawn more Overlords.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

3. Precisely why Putin is not terribly happy about Poland and the baltic states joining the EU/NATO, because it moves them under the latters sphere of protection and away from russia's hegemony. again, more desperation.

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That's why Russia should apply to join the EU, if you cannot fight someone, join him.~;)
Ok, may never happen, but that's Russia's problem, some day even they may get over their "we are the chosen rulers of the world"-complex.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

4. Rather than worry about your hippies, you might find that russia is laughing at your armed forces.

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So do I.:laugh4:

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

Germany has two military aims:
a) To provide massed panzer divisions on the eastern border braced to defend against the next onslaught or russian tanks.

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Sounds like the old ColdWar aims

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

b) To provide a high-tech agile force capable of being deployed and supported abroad so they can be big-players internationally like france and the UK.

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That's in part what we do now, but it's only peacekeeping for now.

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Originally Posted by Furunculu5

Unfortunately, germany won't seriously fund its armed forces to achieve both aims, and it won't give up either of its expensive objectives which means that it cannot afford either a heavy defensive force or a hi-tech rapid reaction force. It is the worst of both worlds and the Bundeswhere is seriously suffering because of it.

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:laugh4:
There was a reason I never wanted to join the Bundeswehr. Turned out they didn't want me anyway.
I think currently we invest a lot into new technology that we hardly ever introduce.:sweatdrop:

But I don't think the german population wants to be a big player, all we want here is Entertainment and Döner and a job to pay for that.
But I have no idea what exactly those in charge dream about, I do however support peacekeeping missions.

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Originally Posted by Husar

That's why Russia should apply to join the EU, if you cannot fight someone, join him.~;)
Ok, may never happen, but that's Russia's problem, some day even they may get over their "we are the chosen rulers of the world"-complex.

Sounds like the old ColdWar aims
That's in part what we do now, but it's only peacekeeping for now.

But I don't think the german population wants to be a big player, all we want here is Entertainment and Döner and a job to pay for that.
But I have no idea what exactly those in charge dream about, I do however support peacekeeping missions.

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the problem lies within the time period before Russia's admits defeat as they get more and more desperate to preserve that great power status.

yup, defending against the Red Menace is still a major priority for the Bundheswer. It's only for peace keeping because germany hasn't managed to pay for the kit and training that makes a hi-tech army.

confused politicians, same the world over. don't know what they really want, and certainly unwilling to finance any of their ambitions properly.

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Originally Posted by CrossLOPER

The relocation of the statue was said to be blasphemy. Those who said it were upset. Honestly, I don't see what's so horrible with an emotional reaction that was fairly justified. Moving that statue in May was not the brightest decision.

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Considering that it violated diplomatic law several times and gave convincing impression of bullying 100 times smaller nation - they might improve the way of protesting otherwise the very image of Russia is tarnished more and more.

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Hate crime rates are increasing, but at a comparable rate to the United States. Also, they are concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

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Statistics ? Or is this the usual reply 'and they are beating blackmen in America' used so often in Soviet Union ?

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Specifics would be nice.

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I suggest to start with news archieves about the beginning of Estonian 'monument crisis' and the reaction in Russia. That would be pretty enough.

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My father was recently in Russia with relatives and there were plenty of Polish products in the open-air markets. More-over, this was Moscow. I guess someone found a way around this crippling boycott that the major... called for.

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Actually our export to Russia grows at accelerating speed, but the embargo is rised only on meat products.
Though it makes roughly 0.4 % of our entire export (and most of this 'russian' part was shifted to Czech Republic, Slovakia and Germany) it is still imposed, though reasons were changed 3 or 4 times already.
It is an argument about how fair and transparent rules are used in Russia regarding products from various EU member states - because Russia concluded 4 or 5 full rounds of inspections and cannot find anything, yet keeps the ban in action - something more can be suspected something political.
Of course recently Mr.Putin proposed to lift the ban in the part of export of cattle which was pretty nice, though quite strange because apparently no cattle can be exported to Russia because the whole export is sent to the EU states (which pay more) . In other words - the proposal was nothing more than a smart PR move.
Still the problem remains - reasons why the ban was imposed and why it is still kept are so unclear that seem strictly and purely political.
It is a question if Russian authorities are willing/able to prove otherwise contrary to the whole EU.


About Luzkov - he isn't treated too seriously here, though from time to time there are rumours about more bans on products from Poland in Russia.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Considering that it violated diplomatic law several times and gave convincing impression of bullying 100 times smaller nation - they might improve the way of protesting otherwise the very image of Russia is tarnished more and more.

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The reaction was provoked, and other than a share of reversable hacks, nothing happened.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

Statistics ? Or is this the usual reply 'and they are beating blackmen in America' used so often in Soviet Union ?

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It's actually hispanics now.

The point is that not much can be done about it. You have a large population with a vast collection of minorities. The UN calls for hate crime legislation, but this is difficult to enforce. The authorities could just arrest all the skinheads in the area, but that would be providing someone with something else to complain about.

Poland has similar problems to a smaller scale, so don't act all uppety.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

I suggest to start with news archieves about the beginning of Estonian 'monument crisis' and the reaction in Russia. That would be pretty enough.

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http://gdb.rferl.org/566ba24b-acb3-4...7f2ed_w220.jpg
Yeah, other than the cyber attacks and protests, nothing. No bombs, no severing ties. Russian officials will probably more or less let up eventually, but people will remember this.

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Originally Posted by cegorach

...Still the problem remains - reasons why the ban was imposed and why it is still kept are so unclear that seem strictly and purely political.
It is a question if Russian authorities are willing/able to prove otherwise contrary to the whole EU.

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Keep your buffalo out of our beef!!! rarararararararara:smash: