Russian Objections to Missile Defense System

[HoreTore]

Another arms race. Just what this world needs.

[/Irony]

[Samurai Waki]

Another arms race. Just what this world needs.

[/Irony]

I don't think this will spur on an arms race. Pessimism usually does the exact opposite, and Russia is in no condition to build up especially on nuclear weaponry. No Nuclear Armed Nation is going to War with NATO and the Russian Fed. has no interest.

[HoreTore]

I don't think this will spur on an arms race. Pessimism usually does the exact opposite, and Russia is in no condition to build up especially on nuclear weaponry.

Russia is in no condition to build up? So why is it then that they are spending billions upgrading their military?

[spmetla]

Future Iranian missile threat?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle3724048.ece
he secret site where Iran is suspected of developing long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets in Europe has been uncovered by new satellite photographs.

The imagery has pinpointed the facility from where the Iranians launched their Kavoshgar 1 “research rocket” on February 4, claiming that it was in connection with their space programme.

Analysis of the photographs taken by the Digital Globe QuickBird satellite four days after the launch has revealed a number of intriguing features that indicate to experts that it is the same site where Iran is focusing its efforts on developing a ballistic missile with a range of about 6,000km (4,000 miles).

A previously unknown missile location, the site, about 230km southeast of Tehran, and the link with Iran's long-range programme, was revealed by Jane's Intelligence Review after a study of the imagery by a former Iraq weapons inspector. A close examination of the photographs has indicated that the Iranians are following the same path as North Korea, pursuing a space programme that enables Tehran to acquire expertise in long-range missile technology.

Geoffrey Forden, a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said that there was a recently constructed building on the site, about 40 metres in length, which was similar in form and size to the Taepodong long-range missile assembly facility in North Korea.

Avital Johanan, the editor of Jane's Proliferation, said that the analysis of the Iranian site indicated that Tehran may be about five years away from developing a 6,000km ballistic missile. This would tie in with American intelligence estimates and underlines why President Bush wants the Polish and Czech components of the US missile defence system to be up and running by 2013.

The Czech Republic has now agreed to have a special radar system on its soil and the Polish Government is still negotiating with Washington over the American request to site ten interceptor missiles in Poland.

The Kavoshgar 1 rocket that was launched in the presence of President Ahmadinejad of Iran was based on the Shahab 3B missile, a version of the North Korean Nodong liquid-propellant missile.

Dr Forden said that the Kavoshgar launch did not demonstrate any significant advances in ballistic missile technology. “But it does reveal the likely future development of Iran's missile programme,” he said.

At a meeting on February 25 between the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Iranians, UN inspectors confronted them with evidence of design studies for mounting nuclear warheads on long-range missiles. The Iranians denied any such aspirations.

However, according to Jane's Intelligence Review, the satellite photographs prove that the Kavoshgar 1 rocket was not part of a civilian space centre project but was consistent with Iran's clandestine programme to develop longer-range missiles.

The examination of the launch site revealed that it was part of a large and growing complex “with very high levels of security and recent construction activity”. It was clearly “an important strategic facility”, Dr Forden said.

The former Iraq weapons inspector said that Iran was benefiting from the North Korean missile programme and following its designs. The Taepodong 1 consisted of a liquid-propellant Nodong (like the Shahab 3) first stage, a liquid-propellant Scud second stage and a solid-propellant third stage.

“The production and testing facility next to the Kavoshgar 1 launch site would seem well positioned to contribute to this third stage,” Dr Forden said.

While I support a missile defense I would prefer if it were located in an area that would not antagonize the Russians so much. Would our new Balkan allies such as Bulgaria or Romania be so opposed to it? What about Turkey or Greece? Surely if Iran is the threatening nation the interceptors could be located in these countries.
I sure that if we were to set up missile defense sites in Japan, Guam, Hawaii, Alaska and so on to guard against North Korea that Russia would not be as opposed as it is to the set up in Poland and the Czech Republic.

As for the Russian response, I think that they are probably well aware that our defensive set up can have very little impact on the current M.A.D. set up. Even if the US were able to conduct first strike attacks on Russia (which I could never envision the US doing) Russia would still have the formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons held in their ballistic missile subs which are regarded as the most secure method for maintaining a nuclear deterrence. Heck, they're even launching a new one of these subs this year: Borey-Class Strategic nuclear missile submarine

[Samurai Waki]

Russia is in no condition to build up? So why is it then that they are spending billions upgrading their military?

Because Russians refuse to be humbled.

[Furious Mental]

FYI the arms race is already in progress. As soon as the ABM treaty was withdrawn from Russia withdrew from START II and postponed deactivation its rail based RT-23 arsenal. It then didn't decommission them until satisfied that its Topol force had adequately compensated for them, and it continues to build up that force now.

[Alexander the Pretty Good]

Meh. The caveman on the east of the river objects to the rock gathering of the cavemen on the west.

[Kagemusha]

Military specialists already have serious doubts whether the missile shield can protect targets from the hypersonic missiles that Russia has been successfully testing since 2004, so in the end, this might just be another starwars program, which will only be money tossed away. If the missile shield would be deployed to protect Europe from possible strike from Iran, im sure there would be better places then Poland to deploy it.
In the end, i think the main beef with Russia is that it doesnt want the advanced radar installations which will be part of the missile shield, so close to its borders. To me this doesnt sound like US is trying to protect Europe from Iran, rather then US wants to have an forward installation near Russia, which would be good for observation for example.

[Redleg]

FYI the arms race is already in progress. As soon as the ABM treaty was withdrawn from Russia withdrew from START II and postponed deactivation its rail based RT-23 arsenal. It then didn't decommission them until satisfied that its Topol force had adequately compensated for them, and it continues to build up that force now.

FYI the arms race never really ended. Every weapon system is a continuation of improvements and leasons learned of a previos weapon system

[rory_20_uk]

I believe that the European system can shoot down 10 missiles.

I fail to imagine a situation where Russia would fire so few over Europe; a situation where they'd be fired stopping 10 would make sod all difference.

But I am sure that these bases would be very secure in Eastern Europe. Plenty of room for snooping on Russia from comparatively close.