Russian Objections to Missile Defense System

[Vladimir]

Siting choice may have been as much a question of politics as anything else.

If the goal of the shield is to defend Europe from a missile strike launched from European Russia or the Middle East, targeting missiles at the higher end of the boost phase and or in the mid phase, than anywhere in Eastern European territory would probably be about the same value in technical terms.

In political terms, any effort that degrades the effectiveness of Russia's nuclear arsenal was bound to catch grief from the Russians. We could have deployed it in Des Moines and still drawn criticism. Russia has been spending billions but has not focused most of those dollars on their strategic arsenal -- so this adds another expense and is bound to annoy.

So, why Poland? Poland has been stauch in support of the USA and the WoT throughout the Bush administration. Other things being equal, politics said it was time to give the Poles a high dollar payback. They earned it.

Won't they have to import labor from the UK?

[Furious Mental]

I didn't realise that becoming a target for Russian nuclear missiles was a form of benevolence.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I didn't realise that becoming a target for Russian nuclear missiles was a form of benevolence.

Oh, Eastern Europe really isn't likely to worry about Russian nuclear missile strikes. Even if Putin or a successor goes imperial again, they wouldn't hammer EE to glass -- EE is a Russian imperialist's lebensraum to the West. Any Russian missiles would be targeted further afield.

[cegorach]

I didn't realise that becoming a target for Russian nuclear missiles was a form of benevolence.

Actually we are getting such threats every 1,5 - 2 years - it started the very moment the Red Army had to leave Poland so I really don't get the argument that it 'makes Poland a target'.

Either we are the target since 1993 (first Russian threats) or became one later.

Besides in the place Poland hapens to exist we are doomed anyway - as long as nuclear conflicts between Russia and anyone to the west of it are concerned.

Sometimes I wish we took the Australian offer made in Tobruk ( during the 'morale boosting' meetings) one Desert Rat to another to move entirely to Australia and leave the cursed continent altogether, but perhaps without Russian hostility life wouldn't be the same...

[Fragony]

Besides in the place Poland hapens to exist we are doomed anyway

At least he's honest about it

[spmetla]

Well so long as the Germans and Russians don't start conspiring then Poland should be safe...for now.

[cegorach]

Actually the best way to ensure our safety is taking Ukraine, Belorus and some caucasian states from the 'Russian zone' to Europe - I believe I will see that happening myself. The final phase of all those 150+ years of effort.
That should bring back the balance of power from mid XVIIth century.

Germany is no real danger to Poland - Prussia is dead and buried, and the state of Germany lost all wars waged against us anyway. Historically they were as dangerous as Swedes or Czechs, while the eastern borders burned for five centuries without a pause.

I fact it is clearly the best time since 1635 and relationship with Russia is the best in the whole history.


The missile shield itself is of little concern - it could be anything else as long as the USA will have a strong reason to protect it and we can get substantial profit . It should help moving us from NATO 'wild borderlands' to the protected zone, something Western Germany managed to achive after it joined.

The USA as an ally is not perfect, but except our eastern and southern neighbours who are too weak nobody else is trustworthy - France is totally useless, the UK uncertain and tends to sacrifice its allies' territory and independence , while Spain, Italy and the rest is too far and too weak. Germany can be great when fighting the East - even despite this sado-masochistic love of Russia, but 'hardly useful' if itself causes the danger (unlikely, but never say never).

So basically attract the USA, keep Germany under controll and grab as many independent states from the 'Russian zone' as possible for our and its own good - they can get rich on its own and expanding to Ukraine tends to support their silly imperialism which always results in an implosion and chaos.

[Samurai Waki]

Besides in the place Poland hapens to exist we are doomed anyway

This is why I propose that Poland Develop a massive Spaceship armed with Takyon Beams and Neutron Bombs.

[Furious Mental]

Previously there was nothing in Poland that would have been worth nuking in a full scale exchange. Now there is.

[cegorach]

Previously there was nothing in Poland that would have been worth nuking in a full scale exchange. Now there is.

Nonsense.

Just see the Cold War predictions - 127 nukes in time of one week would hit Poland.

We are in such place that it is perfectly reasonable - you need to eliminate the 'bridge' between western and eastern Europe.

Of course if you mean some weird nuclear conflict without any conventional war at all and no NATO involvement you are right - we receive one nuke strike we wouldn't otherwise.

The questions are
- why nuclear when it is in the range of conventional arms,
- why do you assume we aren't or weren't targeted the moment the 'warsaw' Pact dissolved as the neighbour of Russia and the best transit corridor you can get,

If the Russians aren't targeting us right now they are either stupid or... stupid and have no idea about strategy.

Besides I have memory which is long enough to remember Russian press showing nic, little pictures of missile trajectories hitting Poland in 1993 so if you think it is the first time someone threatens us this way you are wrong.

Poland has no luxury of neutrality and everyone knows that - it is either die alone if the european balance of power is changing (just like in 1772, 1792, 1795, 1815, 1831, 1863 or 1920) or make it very costly to any agressor by creatinga web of interests which makes others interested in our survival just like in 1656. Another factor is of course to find a place in a security grid which will respond to our needs - certain NOT like it happened in 1939.
That is why we not only joined the NATO and support our eastern neighbours, but also seek for a good way to make our demise directly endangering interests of at least some of our stronger allies and pushing them to respond without a delay or hesitation and our choice is limited only to the USA.
Hardly the best ally, but all others are even worse.

[Furious Mental]

Yes needless to say the Russian military has concocted scenarios calling for them to nuke Poland and indeed every other country around it. This is because Russian military officers, like those in the US, have always clinged to concepts such as limited nuclear war and counterforce, being convinced that they must have a trump card for a truly dire situation at every level. Having said this even in a SIOP style exchange a place like Poland would only have been in the third tier of targets, now it is most definitely in the first. But as policy makers in 1960's realised, limited nuclear warfare and counterforce is complete nonsense because any use of nuclear weapons would inevitably trigger a series of escalations that results in a attempt to destroy the other country completely (i.e. targeting of population centers), and so the choice to launch a nuclear strike inevitably has to be a choice to launch everything at the enemy's strategic military infrastructure and its cities. Anywhere with ABM infrastructure and, more to the point, radar installations is a must hit target in such a scenario, which as I said is the only logical one. On the same logic all this is moot because the US and Russia wouldn't be crazy enough to nuke each other anyway. However it is not completely moot because there is still the possibility of a missile being launched due to an accident or a breakdown in communications in a crisis or some other freak event. The likelihood that such a missile would be one targeted at Poland or the Czech Republic is much much higher than it was before.

[Louis VI the Fat]

*Evil outside world *

*1772, 1792, 1795, 1815, 1831, 1863 or 1920*

*History. Invasions. Betrayal. Isolation.*

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Uh, oops. I meant:

If the Russians aren't targeting us right now they are either stupid or... stupid and have no idea about strategy.

Besides I have memory which is long enough to remember Russian press showing nic, little pictures of missile trajectories hitting Poland in 1993 so if you think it is the first time someone threatens us this way you are wrong.

Poland has no luxury of neutrality and everyone knows that - it is either die alone if the european balance of power is changing (just like in 1772, 1792, 1795, 1815, 1831, 1863 or 1920) or make it very costly to any agressor by creatinga web of interests which makes others interested in our survival just like in 1656. Another factor is of course to find a place in a security grid which will respond to our needs - certain NOT like it happened in 1939.
That is why we not only joined the NATO and support our eastern neighbours, but also seek for a good way to make our demise directly endangering interests of at least some of our stronger allies and pushing them to respond without a delay or hesitation and our choice is limited only to the USA.
Hardly the best ally, but all others are even worse.

Ooh, what cynicism!

How about this for an alternative: Poland continues its steady rise to a big European economy of considerable weight within its own right, fully incorporates itself into a 25 democracies strong EU structure, which in turn is tied trough firm transatlantic ties to the US? (My great masterplan for the future)
I think that development, democratisation, open societies and freeflowing ideas, people and goods are a better safeguard than 19th century style international relations and alliances.

Good to see you descend back into the Backroom cesspool, btw.