Russian Objections to Missile Defense System

[Furious Mental]

Previously there was nothing in Poland that would have been worth nuking in a full scale exchange. Now there is.

[cegorach]

Previously there was nothing in Poland that would have been worth nuking in a full scale exchange. Now there is.

Nonsense.

Just see the Cold War predictions - 127 nukes in time of one week would hit Poland.

We are in such place that it is perfectly reasonable - you need to eliminate the 'bridge' between western and eastern Europe.

Of course if you mean some weird nuclear conflict without any conventional war at all and no NATO involvement you are right - we receive one nuke strike we wouldn't otherwise.

The questions are
- why nuclear when it is in the range of conventional arms,
- why do you assume we aren't or weren't targeted the moment the 'warsaw' Pact dissolved as the neighbour of Russia and the best transit corridor you can get,

If the Russians aren't targeting us right now they are either stupid or... stupid and have no idea about strategy.

Besides I have memory which is long enough to remember Russian press showing nic, little pictures of missile trajectories hitting Poland in 1993 so if you think it is the first time someone threatens us this way you are wrong.

Poland has no luxury of neutrality and everyone knows that - it is either die alone if the european balance of power is changing (just like in 1772, 1792, 1795, 1815, 1831, 1863 or 1920) or make it very costly to any agressor by creatinga web of interests which makes others interested in our survival just like in 1656. Another factor is of course to find a place in a security grid which will respond to our needs - certain NOT like it happened in 1939.
That is why we not only joined the NATO and support our eastern neighbours, but also seek for a good way to make our demise directly endangering interests of at least some of our stronger allies and pushing them to respond without a delay or hesitation and our choice is limited only to the USA.
Hardly the best ally, but all others are even worse.

[Furious Mental]

Yes needless to say the Russian military has concocted scenarios calling for them to nuke Poland and indeed every other country around it. This is because Russian military officers, like those in the US, have always clinged to concepts such as limited nuclear war and counterforce, being convinced that they must have a trump card for a truly dire situation at every level. Having said this even in a SIOP style exchange a place like Poland would only have been in the third tier of targets, now it is most definitely in the first. But as policy makers in 1960's realised, limited nuclear warfare and counterforce is complete nonsense because any use of nuclear weapons would inevitably trigger a series of escalations that results in a attempt to destroy the other country completely (i.e. targeting of population centers), and so the choice to launch a nuclear strike inevitably has to be a choice to launch everything at the enemy's strategic military infrastructure and its cities. Anywhere with ABM infrastructure and, more to the point, radar installations is a must hit target in such a scenario, which as I said is the only logical one. On the same logic all this is moot because the US and Russia wouldn't be crazy enough to nuke each other anyway. However it is not completely moot because there is still the possibility of a missile being launched due to an accident or a breakdown in communications in a crisis or some other freak event. The likelihood that such a missile would be one targeted at Poland or the Czech Republic is much much higher than it was before.

[Louis VI the Fat]

*Evil outside world *

*1772, 1792, 1795, 1815, 1831, 1863 or 1920*

*History. Invasions. Betrayal. Isolation.*

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Uh, oops. I meant:

If the Russians aren't targeting us right now they are either stupid or... stupid and have no idea about strategy.

Besides I have memory which is long enough to remember Russian press showing nic, little pictures of missile trajectories hitting Poland in 1993 so if you think it is the first time someone threatens us this way you are wrong.

Poland has no luxury of neutrality and everyone knows that - it is either die alone if the european balance of power is changing (just like in 1772, 1792, 1795, 1815, 1831, 1863 or 1920) or make it very costly to any agressor by creatinga web of interests which makes others interested in our survival just like in 1656. Another factor is of course to find a place in a security grid which will respond to our needs - certain NOT like it happened in 1939.
That is why we not only joined the NATO and support our eastern neighbours, but also seek for a good way to make our demise directly endangering interests of at least some of our stronger allies and pushing them to respond without a delay or hesitation and our choice is limited only to the USA.
Hardly the best ally, but all others are even worse.

Ooh, what cynicism!

How about this for an alternative: Poland continues its steady rise to a big European economy of considerable weight within its own right, fully incorporates itself into a 25 democracies strong EU structure, which in turn is tied trough firm transatlantic ties to the US? (My great masterplan for the future)
I think that development, democratisation, open societies and freeflowing ideas, people and goods are a better safeguard than 19th century style international relations and alliances.

Good to see you descend back into the Backroom cesspool, btw.

[Pannonian]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Uh, oops. I meant:

Ooh, what cynicism!

How about this for an alternative: Poland continues its steady rise to a big European economy of considerable weight within its own right, fully incorporates itself into a 25 democracies strong EU structure, which in turn is tied trough firm transatlantic ties to the US? (My great masterplan for the future)

Are you referring to the US military's spending on their Polish bases, their equivalent of our great feeding trough (aka the Great French Swindle, or EU subsidies)?

[Louis VI the Fat]

Are you referring to the US military's spending on their Polish bases, their equivalent of our great feeding trough (aka the Great French Swindle, or EU subsidies)?

Yeah, that would be it. Hey, just trying to revive the old Franco-Polish friendship here. Teaching Cegorach that whenever you see an Anglosaxon there's always a way to charm yourself into his wallet and his daughter’s pants.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Ceg' is right on track here.

What Poland gets is what South Korea has.

Permanent US personnel basing, an infusion of US tax dollars to support same, growing relationship and economic ties, and the knowledge that anyone trying to take out Poland would have to kill yanks and risk war with the USA in addition to taking on Poland.

In the long run, Polish politicians will also get the same local poliical advantage SK has -- a "wipping boy" external "presence" that can be used to vent domestic political discontent without endangering the government.

All this for the cost of one or two more nukes aimed their way than otherwise would be.



Ceg'

Does Poland really have designs on creating a "co-prosperity sphere" in what was the Western end of the old CCCP?

[cegorach]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Uh, oops. I meant:

Ooh, what cynicism!

Worse - it is realism. Besides I am both an idealist and a cynic realist.

When it comes to security hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Of course you cannot get ready for something unimaginable (aka 1939), but you can't have everything.

*Evil outside world *

*1772, 1792, 1795, 1815, 1831, 1863 or 1920*

*History. Invasions. Betrayal. Isolation.*

Hardly evil. Each of those dates tell about LACK OF INTEREST or indifference.

IN each of those periods we were like Chechenya or another entity which demise doesn't push anyone to act because there is no short term interest in such action.

In comparison see 1655 and the turmoil the Swedish deluge (after it combined with the Russian one) caused.

It might be sad, but even with a lot of progress made since 1945 some basic rules still apply and there is too little reason to ignore those just because I don't like them and I really don't.

How about this for an alternative: Poland continues its steady rise to a big European economy of considerable weight within its own right, fully incorporates itself into a 25 democracies strong EU structure, which in turn is tied trough firm transatlantic ties to the US? (My great masterplan for the future)
I think that development, democratisation, open societies and freeflowing ideas, people and goods are a better safeguard than 19th century style international relations and alliances.

Who said anything about XIXth century style alliances.

Sorry, but I would (and thankfully the government too) to have BOTH strong ties in the EU which would keep good relations with the USA and more direct links (with the USA and Israel), at least till some EU states grow balls (right now it is about Hungary or Italy) which might never happen.

I doubt we can afford someone's lack of confidence in the critical moment when/if it comes.

That is why you have considerable support from Poland in Chad ( EU mission - primary French), in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq.

To cover all bases - that is why I believe what I believe.

Good to see you descend back into the Backroom cesspool, btw.

Check the link (PMTW) in my sign - it was far worse than lack of interest which kept me from writing here...

I actually started thinking about writing a detailed introduction to current (and earlier) Polish politics for last 5 or so years and posting it here. I still wonder if there will be any interest for considerable effort it will take, though.

Yeah, that would be it. Hey, just trying to revive the old Franco-Polish friendship here. Teaching Cegorach that whenever you see an Anglosaxon there's always a way to charm yourself into his wallet and his daughter’s pants.

I don't mind, but in culture or some, not critical political projects.

Sadly we cannot afford to risk our security too much
- not that the Americans are such a good choice, but the best we can possibly have.



@Seamus Fermanagh

Ceg' is right on track here.

What Poland gets is what South Korea has.

Permanent US personnel basing, an infusion of US tax dollars to support same, growing relationship and economic ties, and the knowledge that anyone trying to take out Poland would have to kill yanks and risk war with the USA in addition to taking on Poland.

That is about right, though military technology is more important - recent deals (last and this week) with Isreal are also pushing in this direction.

In the long run, Polish politicians will also get the same local poliical advantage SK has -- a "wipping boy" external "presence" that can be used to vent domestic political discontent without endangering the government.

It won't work in Poland at all. It could only work for radical populist parties from the margin. If anything gets worse the normal ( ruling Civic Platform) and quite normal ( the ejected and rotting Law and Justice or autistic Left Alliance) parties which support the project will pay the price.

Thankfully Polish society overall understands we cannot be neutral and our choices are limited so there are only very weak opportunities to explote by political extremists - not that it would help them, they suck so bad nothing could help them.

The most probable worst case result if something bad happens in that base is radically decreasing support for our involvement in the NATO missions and much worse opinion about the USA itself. There would be more lunatics preaching about Yalta and other failures of US policy, some street protests (much bigger than now so probably over 100 men ) and more anti-American trolls in the internet.

Ceg'

Does Poland really have designs on creating a "co-prosperity sphere" in what was the Western end of the old CCCP?

Certainly we want safe and predictable neighbourhood with a zone of democracy and free market in a group of independent (primary from Russia) states.

It more or less started in the XIXth century with notable explosions during the November or January Uprising (Polish-Lithuanian-Belorussian), later weakened after a post-uprising wave of criticism and with the rise of nationalism in the region, but ultimately rose again with Promethean movement (and policy including large clandestine operations) and was kept after that.
The modern design of the idea could be attributed to Jerzy Giedroyc and Paris 'Kultura' which became the funding ground of the entire Polish foreign policy after 1989 which was performed pretty well with the exception of the previous, incompetent government.

Besides 'the western part of the former CCCP' was the area of where the former Pol-Lit Commonwealth existed for centuries and it should be remembered that its spirit survived for much longer - obviously buried under the remnants of the Soviet Union, but you would be suprised how many symbolic events, celebrations and commemorations can be directly linked to the Commonwealth (or the 1st Polish Republic as it is known).
Nothing of premium political value, but a bit like a good starting ground for future and current cooperation (just look at in how many places Polish and Ukrainian soldiers or policemen are deployed together).

It is a very complicated and huge subject to discuss, so if you are interested I suggest to check even Wikipedia and look for the following topics:

Promethean movement, Międzymorze federation, Komitet 5 ( pre-2nd WW clandestine actions), Polska Organizacja Wojskowa, January Uprising, Polish-Ukrainian battalion, Georgian community in Poland, Poles in Azerbaijan and references to those.

Personally I find the appoach to spread democracy and freedom especially something which is directly linked to being Polish and I would rather give up my citizenship if it is ever abandoned.



Just for the record. There is a number of conspiracy theories in Russia placing Poland as a bad guy which tend to reappear when something happens in the relations between both states - one of the funniest was preached during the Orange Revolution. It spoke that we are going to recreate The Commonwealth by 'stealing' Ukraine, pushing Belorus away and brainwashing the Baltic states - everything to - as usual - destroy Russia and... the USA thus becoming the largest power in the world.
I guess they forgot about China...

It of course is all completely not true, one thing which makes it a bit less funny is that the guy who wrote this theory is still one of most important foreign polisy advisors of the Kremlin itself...