The 21st Century Satan

[Banquo's Ghost]

It should be noted that anyone who endures reading an opinion piece from the Daily Mail is bound to become depressed.

Crikey, the paper's masthead is "And Get Off My Lawn!"

[Tribesman]

It should be noted that anyone who endures reading an opinion piece from the Daily Mail is bound to become depressed.

Come on its funny , people stealing manholes
Amatuers what you do is go down the motorway and steal the railings off the bridges , its easier and has a much better return .

[Adrian II]

Race war? Bah, if anything it'll be a religious war.

CR

Yup. And a spectacular one it'll be. From afar, that is.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Sure - I can be optimistic. I realize that people are always talking about how things are better on the other side, but sometimes they are right. The 20's were a decent example. Sure things got "better" in the last century, but the fixes to the rot were sorted out in a massive, suicide inducing economic catastrophe... one that we are better for now, but I'm sure that people living in that period would have rather been on the receiving end of the deal than the work to the bone end.

Maybe it is because my adrenal cortex burned out and I have a liver disease, but I don't view the future through a bright lens. In fact, the only thing I'm looking forward to is a land grab, take no prisoners civil war... maybe that's not true, but it would be interesting.

I majored in history and don't want to be a teacher - I have to go back to school and learn a whole new deal. I work with a Chinese company (I am the only white guy there and I don't speak much mandarin) and I'm not very good at the job.

uuuugh. It is much easier to stock up on guns and put a motte and Bailey around my house than to plan for an internationally competitive future.

[Watchman]

Pff. You think the US is on the decline ? It ain't got anything on China. If that place doesn't undergo some direly needed reforms (which its leaders don't want to carry out) sometime fast to fix at least the worst of its mounting domestic troubles, my bet is they're going to have another honest-to-God Communist revolution, civil war or somesuch in a few decades.
And being the police state they are, the problem-solving instruments they have in place mostly involve violence against dissidents. Not quite what's going to be needed to avoid a major domestic rupture and/or economic meltdown I'd say.

The poor have always demonstrated a willingness to only put up with so much crap before the choice between dying of starvation and dying with a weapon in hand trying to take down the system starts tilting in the favour of the latter.

Yup. And a spectacular one it'll be. From afar, that is.

Meh. It's not religion they're fighting about but the usual murky soup of politics, conflicting interests, cultural schism and whatever. Religion just gets its usual role as the convenient rallying point and blunt instrument for the radicals.

[Vladimir]

Pff. You think the US is on the decline ? It ain't got anything on China. If that place doesn't undergo some direly needed reforms (which its leaders don't want to carry out) sometime fast to fix at least the worst of its mounting domestic troubles, my bet is they're going to have another honest-to-God Communist revolution, civil war or somesuch in a few decades.
And being the police state they are, the problem-solving instruments they have in place mostly involve violence against dissidents. Not quite what's going to be needed to avoid a major domestic rupture and/or economic meltdown I'd say.

The poor have always demonstrated a willingness to only put up with so much crap before the choice between dying of starvation and dying with a weapon in hand trying to take down the system starts tilting in the favour of the latter.

Meh. It's not religion they're fighting about but the usual murky soup of politics, conflicting interests, cultural schism and whatever. Religion just gets its usual role as the convenient rallying point and blunt instrument for the radicals.

Our economy does tend to have a boom/bust cycle but China tends to have a boom/kill the ruling dynasty burn the country cycle. However that's usually measured in the hundreds of years.

What you say is most certainly true. Without dramatic reform the one party system China has will eventually fall like those of the Soviet block. It will just take a long time.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Our economy does tend to have a boom/bust cycle but China tends to have a boom/kill the ruling dynasty burn the country cycle. However that's usually measured in the hundreds of years.

What you say is most certainly true. Without dramatic reform the one party system China has will eventually fall like those of the Soviet block. It will just take a long time.

I don't agree. I think that we are more likely to fall before they do if we allow them unhindered growth in the way that they have pursued it. The world will be a much more terrible place with China as the hegemon and the United States in a collapse. Imagine what would happen if our Presidents during the cold war had acted towards the USSR with as much cold indifference as they do now with China.

They haven't collapsed yet and have only become exponentially stronger and more willing to flex their muscles. It needs to be addressed by a President who is not a lightweight.

[Fragony]

Pff. You think the US is on the decline ? It ain't got anything on China. If that place doesn't undergo some direly needed reforms (which its leaders don't want to carry out) sometime fast to fix at least the worst of its mounting domestic troubles, my bet is they're going to have another honest-to-God Communist revolution, civil war or somesuch in a few decades.

Much sooner probably I give them 5 years.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Much sooner probably I give them 5 years.

Well that is going to add to the deficit of "years given" by western sooth sayers. We have been saying it for sixty years; when China had a system that couldn't work. They have since changed it to one that can. A few more adjustments and they are go, all the way. They have a massive population that incinerates the population of the entire west - all in one country. You would have to believe that whites are superior racially to hold onto the idea that we can defeat them economically.

What would you say if China was the future and we were the past?

[Fragony]

Well that is going to add to the deficit of "years given" by western sooth sayers. We have been saying it for sixty years; when China had a system that couldn't work. They have since changed it to one that can. A few more adjustments and they are go, all the way. They have a massive population that incinerates the population of the entire west - all in one country. You would have to believe that whites are superior racially to hold onto the idea that we can defeat them economically.

What would you say if China was the future and we were the past?

If China grows too much it will inevitably lead to a conflict with Russia (they are already getting ready for that, some Russian area's are Chinese in Chinese schoolbooks). Massive economic growth and a huge mostly poor population that can't keep up are a recepy for a disaster China has major problems alright. If we are the past, been fun. But we are not nor will we be we are here to stay.

[ICantSpellDawg]

If China grows too much it will inevitably lead to a conflict with Russia (they are already getting ready for that, some Russian area's are Chinese in Chinese schoolbooks). Massive economic growth and a huge mostly poor population that can't keep up are a recepy for a disaster China has major problems alright. If we are the past, been fun. But we are not nor will we be we are here to stay.

And China would incinerate Russia. Russia has been allowing China to fill their lands to the east for years now. It is kind of like a Mexico - U.S. relationship with teeth. Lets say that Russia and China go at it and Russia loses land. Then what?

Why are we talking so much about inevitability?

[Vladimir]

Well that is going to add to the deficit of "years given" by western sooth sayers. We have been saying it for sixty years; when China had a system that couldn't work. They have since changed it to one that can. A few more adjustments and they are go, all the way. They have a massive population that incinerates the population of the entire west - all in one country. You would have to believe that whites are superior racially to hold onto the idea that we can defeat them economically.

What would you say if China was the future and we were the past?

China is the past, they're just catching up the the present. One thing that's holding America back is not the age of our culture, like in China, but our aging population. What will happen when the baby boomers die? We will have a proportionately much younger demographic then we have now. The economic "decline" (by decline I mean slowly growing) of America will end in our lifetime. Well, maybe now Kurki's.

We haven't even factored in the unknown such as new technologies, space exploration, etc. I don't expect China to suddenly break with thousands of years of tradition and become a country of explorers. What happened when Germany tried to build a navy? America will continue to be the place where people come to liberate their minds to explore the unknown. Hopefully we'll get smart soon and stop them from stealing everything that isn't nailed down.

[Fragony]

And China would incinerate Russia. Russia has been allowing China to fill their lands to the east for years now. It is kind of like a Mexico - U.S. relationship with teeth. Lets say that Russia and China go at it and Russia loses land. Then what?

Why are we talking so much about inevitability?

They would still need somebody to buy their things, China is cheap labour it's depends on our demand for their products. Where would they take their stuff isn't like their own population is getting that much goodness out of it, no real self-sustaining market like we have here. If the west stands strong nothing can touch us. China is gonna fall like everything that moves too fast takes only a tackle. If it doesn't we will probably only benefit from it.

[ICantSpellDawg]

China is the past, they're just catching up the the present. One thing that's holding America back is not the age of our culture, like in China, but our aging population. What will happen when the baby boomers die? We will have a proportionately much younger demographic then we have now. The economic "decline" (by decline I mean slowly growing) of America will end in our lifetime. Well, maybe now Kurki's.

We haven't even factored in the unknown such as new technologies, space exploration, etc. I don't expect China to suddenly break with thousands of years of tradition and become a country of explorers. What happened when Germany tried to build a navy? America will continue to be the place where people come to liberate their minds to explore the unknown. Hopefully we'll get smart soon and stop them from stealing everything that isn't nailed down.

C'mon - look at the Zulus and Native Americans - when the west first found them, I'm sure that they couldn't foresee them with guns in their hands. Where would they get the guns from for god's sake?

HUMAN BEINGS (which it seems I must remind everyone is what we are dealing with) want to defend themselves. The natives decided that the best way to defend themselves was to go on the offense and use the most effective tools to do so.

China should have a similar response. They have been awakened to the fact that preemption is the best way to defend themselves and their culture in the 21st century.

They realize that they have a major advantage numerically and maybe even with their style of governance. They can effectively decide policy with little domestic opposition. Imagine if we could do that! They are most likely going to branch out further as the HAVE BEEN DOING

This is not a different animal - they will do what works to keep themselves safe and in power. That tends to include aggression.

[ICantSpellDawg]

They would still need somebody to buy their things, China is cheap labour it's depends on our demand for their products. Where would they take their stuff isn't like their own population is getting that much goodness out of it, no real self-sustaining market like we have here. If the west stands strong nothing can touch us. China is gonna fall like everything that moves too fast takes only a tackle. If it doesn't we will probably only benefit from it.

How about themselves? With close to 1.7 billion people, with a little elbow grease they are their own international market.

How did the west do it? BY SELLING TO THEMSELVES!

[Fragony]

How about themselves? With close to 1.7 billion people, with a little elbow grease they are their own international market.

How did the west do it? BY SELLING TO THEMSELVES!

And that is why China has a problem, they can't. Cheap as their products may to us, to the average chinaman it's still a fortune, they are overstretching and they know it. The wild west in china is dirt-poor, and in the developed parts they already have a tv. Watchman is right but I expect it to collapse much sooner, they are running harder then their legs can carry them.

[ICantSpellDawg]

And that is why China has a problem, they can't. Cheap as their products may to us, to the average chinaman it's still a fortune, they are overstretching and they know it. The wild west in china is dirt-poor, and in the developed parts they already have a tv. Watchman is right but I expect it to collapse much sooner, they are running harder then their legs can carry them.

So what is going to happen? The average Chinaman can't afford to buy products from anywhere else and will need the prices to go lower. The national economy will most likely oblige and such an action will cripple the west further. China has the means to really do a number here. There is no inevitable fall for them scheduled. If anything, we look closer to collapse.

I don't think that either will fall any time soon, but you can already see Asian markets rebounding while ours are still falling into the abyss. This suggests a more independently sustainable Asian market than we have previously known.

[Watchman]

How about themselves? With close to 1.7 billion people, with a little elbow grease they are their own international market.

How did the west do it? BY SELLING TO THEMSELVES!

But that requires buying power. Which the majority of the Chinese, being kind of on the dirt poor side, don't have.

EDIT: Beat to it.

Anyway, as things go, China still has to import its higher-end military hardware (the last I heard the electronics and computers on their most up-to-date warship were French); and numbers mean remarkably little if geography and weapons technology gets in the way. It doesn't matter a jack that there's 1.7 billion mainland Chinese and, well, however many there now are Taiwanese, as long as the PLA has no credible means of getting to that island without the still quite primitive navy getting blown out of water. (You know the US sells Aegis-grade warships to Taiwan right ?) Nevermind now starting a war with the US and in all likelihood quite a few others it has no chance of winning...

Russia ? I may be kind of ramshackle but even then its gear is still at least a generation ahead China, plus it has lots of nukes. "Feeling lucky, punk?"


Plus as already repeated ad nauseum, Beijing has no shortage of domestic problems to deal with as is (Tibet, the Uighurs, socioeconomic shifts, corruption, pollution, gross domestic shortage of raw materials...) and has more coming down the road. God forbid should the Party for some reason start to "fail to deliver" on the economic growth to the appropriate important segments of society...

[Watchman]

So what is going to happen? The average Chinaman can't afford to buy products from anywhere else and will need the prices to go lower.

Well, the poor could always do with lower prices. Tends to be they have to settle to just not buying though.

When that starts including food, you get trouble big time.

[Vladimir]

And that is why China has a problem, they can't. Cheap as their products may to us, to the average chinaman it's still a fortune, they are overstretching and they know it. The wild west in china is dirt-poor, and in the developed parts they already have a tv. Watchman is right but I expect it to collapse much sooner, they are running harder then their legs can carry them.

There is a lot of merit to that statement. Like a bee colony many are working themselves to exhaustion; very productive but short-term. Their labor conditions will have to dramatically change. Also since the Chinese government doesn't care about the local or global environment it's poisoning it's people at a greater rate to a greater extent every day.

OPEC is pricing itself out of business and if current oil prices are maintained or continue to rise, China will literally have a fossilized economy. Imagine if all the money spent to import energy was suddenly reinvested in domestic energy production.

[Watchman]

Funny detail: manufacturing is also now starting to leave China and move into the few locales of cheaper labour stable enough to run a factory in... The "China effect" doesn't discriminate.

I actually recently heard a rather noted analyst observe the world's basically gradually running out of such pools of lower-cost labour to exploit; it's partly built into the system really...

[Fragony]

Funny detail: manufacturing is also now starting to leave China and move into the few locales of cheaper labour stable enough to run a factory in... The "China effect" doesn't discriminate.

Ya to the philipines mostly. I wouldn't want to be the guy pretending to act for the collective. Here in the west we don't have that we believe in reprocacity by individuals, such a big country, so many problems, certain bye if you ask me.

edit, another thing I like to bring up, the buying Blitzkrieg of western stock, that sounds bad but in the end it forces them to play by our rules. They could drop the $-bomb but it would be like nuking theirselves. Suicide never was a sound survival strategy.

[Watchman]

You wouldn't believe the rhetorical gymnastics the Chinese have came up with to explain how what's basically naked greedy capitalism is, supposedly, "in fact" Communism...

I don't think anyone there particularly cares about that being a very small and transparent fig leaf either, though. Going through the motions as it were.

[Fragony]

I am not a capitalist, some of my best friends are poor, always suspect

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

China also has a much bigger demographic problem than the West, as well. What's the ratio man to woman now? 8:1, once the currect generation start to die off there will be a massive population crash much worse than anything going on here right now.

We just have to hang on for thirty years or so.

[Strike For The South]

We have coal! and baseball!

[Marshal Murat]

And Texas.

[Papewaio]

Lemur-no offense, but I don't see it. I see a dearth of insight in my generation. It's like the well dried up. We expect quite a bit, but nobody does anything other than service jobs. Really poorly to boot. We arn't the working poor either. Motivation is either dead or misguided.

Maybe Wisconsin is different.

Same thing has happened in Taiwan. The current graduating population is seen as lazy and not wanting to work.

The same thing will happen in China but only quicker.

Combine the one child policy that creates little Emperors (the term for 4 grandparents who spoil their one and only grandchild) with a growing middle class and you will have one of the most spoilt generations in next to no time. The only thing that possibly could stop the lazy generation from widening is internal problems where the farmers rise against the richer city kids. But even the farmers have lots of little Emperors running around and what to just look after their grandchildren. So they in turn are encouraging them to go to the city and get more money.

So either a generation of very western "I'm the center of the universe Gen Y+1" will be in abundance over the next decade OR internal decent boils over and China goes through another cultural revolution and is no longer the manufacturing hub.

They will become either western or non-competitive.

Now for India it is a different story, they have large families, greater depth of English speakers, and are democratic. What slows down their economic growth to half that of Chinas is the caste system and very poor penetration of infrastructure which in turn curtails true long term growth.. In the end a vibrant India will also go throw the leisure industry growth, and I don't think India is to be worried about as much as China... after all India plays cricket.

[Watchman]

And Texas.

I would classify that as a disadvantage though.

[Kaidonni]

It should be noted that anyone who endures reading an opinion piece from the Daily Mail is bound to become depressed.

This really explains a lot of what is going on in my life at the moment...A LOT...*yes, I read the Daily Mail, much to my detriment - call the funny farm, one of their inmates has escaped and is posting in this post*