First Imperial Campaign as Brutii, having played Jullii many times.
Basic Question 1:
Does a transgression notice from Dacia (family member slyly detoured to hire Mercs), indicate a likely medium term attack?
Basic Question 2:
Diplomatically, is it feasible to break-up an ungodly anti-historical alliance of Northern barbs (Gaul, Britons, Germania, Dacia, Scythia), plus the hemmed in Macedonians, with only Thrace as counter. Perhaps Germania can be groomed, so they get embroiled with Britons & Dacia, rather than attempt to expand southwards?
Background (Longwinded so only read and respond if you're in mood for strategy) ....
Played fair bit as Jullii, preferring short Campaign generally hard/hard, medium/vh or vh/med. Found the money worries are solved by a strategic double evelopment (Massilia / Eastern shore of Adriatic). The Gauls gut themselves on the banks of the Rhone (bridges near Massilia) and at a grand decisive defensive battle in northern italy (follows a surprise Amphib + Spy counter-assualt on Patavium after they "treacherously" invade southwards). I much prefer this to the generally recommended unsubtle early frontal assault (risks ambushes & forested battle fields & means Jullii are on offensive and the aggressors diplomatically). Mostly can then crush the Gauls in a single front Blitz style war (taking only light losses generally taken by the victims of the Gaullish Noble Heavy Cav), without interference from anything but Rebel brigands. Set this up by trading on Northern (Germania) & Eastern (Dacia) borders, and keeping things as quiet as poss in those regions. Sometimes however, a grand barbarian Alliance forms, Gauls-Britons-Germans-Dacians in response to rapid Julian expansion (sometimes promoted by Senate missions), which is uncomfortble, but OK as Jullii can ceasefire/trade with Carthage to secure Caralis, extracting some tribute as a sweetener. So though the attacks on all Northern & Eastern borders, stretch the Jullian Empire taught, the barbs get repulsed, then smashed by the counter-attack quickly followed by loss of a key province or two to the manipular legions arrayed in quincunx (fighting a flexible mobile battle supported by historically over-strong cavalry).
Setbacks do occur, but generally prove to be Phyrric victories (the AI doesn't often annihilate routers efficiently), so the recovery rate and rapid sea/road movement, plus money for mercs; permit absorption of even serious losses.
In my first Brutii (RTW 1.5 Med/Med) campaign, initially things seem much easier. I've swept up the Adriatic Salona, Segestica, Patavium, as well as taken Apollonia (Rebels), Thermon (Greeks) Athens (Rebels).
Taking advantage of the Brutii's slush fund capability, I allied with Thrace subsidising them by 250dn hoping they'd trouble the Macedonians. Actually they're embroiled with the Dacians but neutral with the Macs.
Early in game, I smelt a rat as Greek "Netral" ships approached lightly defended Croton & Tarrantum. Successfully took out 2 smallish Greek forces at sea, followed it up with a senate ordered blockade of Thermon, followed swiftly by a siege.
My next main target is the Pelopenese peninsula, TGC have sortied from Sparta, besieging the Macs in Corinth, attempting a cease-fire with the Brutii which was turned down for long term Diplomatic reputation & Senate popularity reasons. I'm "watching" with a big stack, currently hidden in a fleet blockading Sparta (Senate mission). Hoping the Greeks succeed this turn in Corinth (but with heavy losses) so I can take the Pelopenese (Sparta & Corinth) without immediate war with currently neutral Macedon (allied with enemies of my allies). If I attack Sparta on land too soon, I'll probably lift the siege for the Macs, and they'll preserve their strength. Hopefully my mountain forts deter (or stall) the Macs, just long enough that I can clear out my rear, fight a single front campaign against them, with possibility of outflanking them via the Sea.
In an excursion I took Crete from the Rebs a few years ago. partly in order to improve Athens & Cretan trade potential (Numidia & Egypt diplomat landed in Africa), provide access to more Merc Cretan Archers, to later offer the full courtesy service to Mac Phalanxes + Light Cav, that I plan to be facing in the next main offensive (on Larissa & Thessalonica).
A secondary force attempted to fulfill Senate Mission to blockade Patavium, and then take the City the turn after. Unfortunately though the Jullii were investing Mediolanum the AI chose to attack my seige of Patavium with 3 family members in 2 forces and an initially 1:1 decisive grand winter battle followed. This gained me the City too early with a Crushing Victory, cost me some good will in senate (no credit for the blockade, appears to go down as a failed mission).
To fill out the Patavium expeditionary force, I raised mercs from Illyria, but also Falxmen, Barb Spear men, and Sarmation Heavy Cavalry from the Dacian lands; where experience has taught me you can raise a reasonable "insta" army with sufficient gold, denying this resource to the enemy. This meant a family member was "In Dacian lands" for 2 turns, and I received a "Transgression" message on my 2nd hop, where I got spotted by a Macedonian diplomat.
Gaul has managed to ally Briton, Germania & Dacia. Thrace is fighting Dacia (but not Macedon who are only at war so far with Greece over Corinth & a naval blockade of Sparta). Dacia and Macedon are also allies, with Dacia & Sythia also allied. The traditional Briton-Germania war, never broke out, though it looks like they ought to be fighting as "impetuous" war bands are mingled in Trier but currently remain neutral and commonly allied to Gaul & Dacia. On the bright side, Thrace are besieging the Dacian capitol, which ought to be the Dacian AI's priority.
So until Sparta & Corinth fall, in the main theatre of ops, the Brutii & Macedon lie side by side, with the Macs holding a cav heavy fullish stack near Larissa, and the Brutii only have screening forces to stall a Macedonian attack, which surely is inevitable, if only because the Brutii cut them off from Corinth.
I have a non FOW tga save file, but not sure how to convert it to something "viewable", but will look into it if discussion develops.
My Aims:
Avoid intense 3 Front war - Northern Barbs + Dacia, Macedon and Greeks in Aegean.
I am confident I can handle, Dacia, Macedon (simulataneously weakening the Greeks further using traditional Royal Navy style blockade + selective amphib assualt on weakpoints). So long as the AI factions don't get well coordinated. I'm sure I'll roll up the main theatre, and defeat the secondary threats in detail, without things blowing up too much.
But I do want to avoid a simultaneous attack by Germania southwards, Dacia on Segestica, Macs and the Greeks via big naval battle. That could lead to over-stretch and additional opportunistic attacks by yet more factions, if I get stalled. I don't quite trust the Jullii AI, to do a decent job, take Massilia and make headway against the Gauls.
Some distraction, taking low hanging fruit is OK, but do want primary focus in the main Greek & Mac theatre, before Greeks, Egypt, or Pontus gain too much strength before I can fully consolidate a compact centre around Athens.
There's not much I can do medium term to directly weaken the Scipii, who rapidly secured Syracuse & Lilybaeum in this game. So I'll try to use trade to strengthen their future opponents, and try a plague ship strategy to stealthily delay them.
Is it worthwhile to attempt to take Noricum, trade and break up the Germania, Dacia alliance, perhaps with aid of slush fund? Financially I actually suspect, it's better to just build a fort in pass, leave Rebel Luvavum as a buffer, hoping the Dacians & Germans fall out over it (as they sometimes do). Then take richer pickings elsewhere.
Perhaps I would be better to set a border force on the Danube, plan to repulse a German incursion, with the aim of counter attacking Dacia, once they turn aggressive?
May be, I can use the wealth of the northern Adriatic to weaken Dacia further, which enables strategic land-based flanking of northern Macedonia, at cost of a long slow approach.
May be Thrace should be paid to attack Macedon from North, if their siege of Dacian capitol succeeds, weakening the both of them? But, I suspect the AI, is reluctant to accept such "Missions", certainly even quality diplomats have been turned down in past.
If you got this far thanks for your patience, look forward to discussing any ideas. Actually they may be moot, as I usually play on harder levels, so perhaps I can just "kill them all" via generalship on the battlefields.
Lots of questions, but there seems to be no logic to the Diplomacy AI, how often do you get "Accept or we Attack", "Please Do not Attack" messages?
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