I think that for the Short Campaign and Long Campaign dual victory scenario, the victory corresponding to the campaign victory conditions being played will be shown.
If this is correct, then if the Long Campaign was selected, the Long Campaign Victory would be shown. If the Short Campaign was selected, the Short Campaign victory would be shown. The Long Campaign victory conditions are used if the player chooses to carry on after loosing or winning the Short Campaign (if it were selected) so, in that case, the Long Campaign victory would be displayed.
The only complication is what happens if the player is playing the short campaign and chooses to continue. In that case, I'm tempted to presume that the Long Campaign victory message is shown immediately after the choice to carry on is selected.
Don't quote me on that though - it's just my presumptions of how it works.
As for conquering the map, I'd guess that you'd first get the long campaign victory message and, if you choose to continue, the map conquest message.
That I'm even less certain about though.
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