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Sasaki Kojiro, TinCow,PrivateerKev--the three of us are the only ones left living who have voted for Ichigo. Unless we lynch the SK today one of us will die tonight. None of us should be lynch targets for that reason, we don't have lynches to waste. Additionally, I'm innocent. Also, TinCow was blocked on a night when all kills were accounted for (he could be the new killer but it would be foolish to kill pevergreen, one of the other ichigo-voters). Privateer kev would be the least cautious newbie-mafioso ever.


The Stranger/EliteFerret-Next person I looked into. TS requested replacement part way through the night, so he could still have sent the kills. However Elite doesn't have any bad marks. When mak asked to see his pm she reported that he went to private messaging.

axel--innocent in my book due to missing whole night period

The lurkers:

Tiberius-3 posts--WoG bait
BananaBob-4 posts--WoG bait
Tratorix-7 posts--No posts since day 2. Possible WoG bait.
LittleGriz-11--not really a lurker anymore after a lurking start. Has been getting accused all over the place with out a lick of decent evidence. The only evidence brought that I can see is that Ichigo was going to investigate him next and it was claimed that ichigo had randomly hit the same number generator that Andres did--which is silly, since it's random.
Omanes-11--Possible scum. Lurking, laying low, avoiding popular lynch candidates.
Caius-12--I'm fairly suspicious of him since he usually posts more.
Proletariat-13-Blocked by prostitute on night with kills. Odds are low she's mafia.

Makanye-

Mithrandir-

Northnovas-

Curio-I think Curio is innocent. Gut feeling, but he has enough posts to judge.

Woad&Fangs-



I've been doing this piece by piece, but I'm going to take a break and leave some entries unfilled while I go look at something. The write up says that pino was found in a pool of blood. Husar and Rhythmic both bled to death. I recall Rhythmics vote for LittleGrizz which I found very bizarre and want to check up on it and see if it was a cop clue. On the other hand there was that business with Husar being out of bed. This should be looked into.

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In the meantime, don't do the Serial Killer's work for them and take the time to reread the thread and come up with a real suspect.

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Hmm....

My suspects-

1) Sasaki- He's just about cleverer than everyone else alive at this point, with the possible exception of TinCow, whom I'm pretty sure is innocent at this point. Sasaki's been keeping at just the surface point of discussion for most of the game, which is pretty much to be expected. What still sets me off a bit, in retrospect, is the fact that he was blocked on a night when there was one kill. I certainly wouldn't put it beyond Sasaki to come right out and admit he was blocked.

2) Makanyane- Her behavior is striking me to be rather similar to her behavior in Netherworld mafia- playing the part of 'dumb blonde' so to speak, a bit too much, given that she's hardly anything but.

3) Omanes- lurking heavily, but no so much that he's WoG bait. Omanes is smart enough to make some decent analysis of the game, and the fact that he's not really doing anything of the sort is rather troubling.

4) Curio- I've got a bad feeling here. He's taken the lead on the town's efforts, and yet he's got almost no experience at .org mafia. Somehow, this doesn't settle right with me, and I'm got a feeling that Sasaki's feeding him info to 'analyze' from the kills, which does two things: First, it prevents the image of Sasaki from appearing as trying to lead the town around by its nose, and it establishes Curio as a pro-town force. Frankly, I've just got a very bad feeling about this.

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I see a couple of votes on you brought out a sudden surge in helpfulness...

The posting analysis and suspicions on lurkers haven't got us anywhere so far, and I don't hold out a lot of hope that they will today. I have feeling we're missing seeing the elephant in the room, and am quite serious that you're a credible suspect for that role.

I agree that TC is likely 'proved' innocent, but I'm not that convinced about PK - him not having had time to absorb lore about how mafia normally stay out of trouble might be helping him do a convincing talkative hence innocent persona.
If the prostitute could be persuaded to keep protection on TC then lynching you and having PK as last possible serial killer victim doesn't actually seem like such a bad idea.


EDIT: grrr, khaan, I've been trying to sound intelligent so people listen to me for a change..... and you still think I'm coming out as 'dumb blonde' - that's a bit depressing for the self image!

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Sasaki actually makes a good point here.

Unvote: Little Grizzly

Upon rereading Sasaki appears to be right, theres no real evidence for or against.

Ok, in light of the complete confusion that appears to be reigning supreme atm, I'm going to reveal this little bombshell...

I don't know what today's date is but on the 14th, after a conversation with Rythmic, he said this:

At the time I thought nothing of it. Then I realised that the only 'source' that he could legitimately have was either himself or Ichigo. Since Ichigo is now dead, I can reveal that I was in contact with him, and I know that I wasn't worthy of investigation by him (matter of public record, he had a list of those he was investigating, I wasn't on it). Hence Rythmic has, or rather had the ability to investigate.

Of the characters, Manfredo can investigate, but only to find Juliette.
Juliette can investigate, but She was Ichigo.
The Carabineri can investigate, he was unknown.

By process of elimination, if Rythmic was telling the truth, and he had no reason to lie, then he was the detective. The write-up of his demise, would also seem to confirm this (see above).

Bearing this in mind, everything he said to me now bears more weight.

This was the only PM, where he actually confirmed that he had a source, and that he seemed confident.

There was only one other where he mentioned anything about his 'opinion' about other players, and it was early in the game and he seemed to be speculating, I can post it if you want me to.

Unfortunately, there were no guilty results, and as such this information is almost useless. Completely useless if he lied.

I'm sorry if this shouldn't have been revealed btw.

Curio

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Looking back and husar and rhythmic's post history:


Husar's first post after night one:

Rhythmics:

Based on Husar's post this thread, he didn't have a result on prole despite the weird wording, and anyway she was blocked by prostitute. I don't think the "first posts of day" are going to be useful this time although the detectives sometimes leave clues.

This post by rhythmic:

interests me, "investigative report" is strange wording, perhaps used by andres in a role pm. From same post:

Then the next day:

In my estimation Rhythmic was the detective. Looks like a result on Husar for that they though, so he couldn't have had a result on LittleGrizzly that day, and was instead just trying to stop the Husar wagon. Well that was a lengthy derail, but I did notice two things. First, I'm suspicious of those jumping all over LittleGrizzly. I can't see any evidence against him. This includes curio who I'm going to have to take a close look at despite my gut feeling. Second is this quote from NorthNovas:
Which is a classic mafia type post. He'll be the subject of my next post.

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Vote: Omanes btw.

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Sasaki Kojiro 71
Makanyane 37



They're the only way to get anywhere. Mafia instinct is to cast careless votes.

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So the ability to analyse (badly as it turns out), makes me suspicious? Ok I can see that it probably does.

But I'd like to point out that I am my own man, and I don't need to be 'fed information' on how to perform an analysis of someone.

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actually I am a dumb blonde.... just realised there was no mention of prostitute last night, erm do we think she's dead?

need to re-read the rest of stuff above later, must work now.

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Vote: gaius Scribino Curio

reason: I really don't have a clue. I had a gut feeling about kukri and sarathos which both turned out to be wrong, since the numer of kills did not decline after they were dead. So for now I'll rather trust complete randomness than my gut feelings.

edit: I filled in numbers instead of names because I'm too lazy. #5 on the random list is gaius (from andres' tally)

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Possible his not being online meant he didn't send a kill? Not evidence of it. A nothing vote.

Still no vote. He does vote for 00Jebus.

Next few posts aren't interesting, just apologies for missing votes and lurking.

This is the interesting set:


He appears to be voting for popular candidates indiscriminately with fake reasons at times. Good lynch choice.



Mithrandir--Lurks a lot. Could go either way on this one.


Mak, Curio, and W&F will take a bit more time.

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Mak- No offense intended, honestly. However, you seem to be either going along with other people's votes, or else simply stating that you're not sure what to do. It was simply a term of phrase, I meant nothing by it.

Gaius- Once again, no offense intended. However, you can't deny that you're still very new to mafia, so either you're getting help from someone who IS very experienced, or you're going to be one heck of a mafia player once you get to know the usual field of players. However, I tend to reserve such a judgement until many games, and as such, I'll allow my pessimistic side to assume that you've been getting some hints from Sasaki.

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Makes sense to me. On the basis of the first quote I think we can put Curio in as innocent.

^^^or maybe this is just a clever plot we cooked up together

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ooc :Actually my activity has increased with about 1000% since joining these maffia games


ic: I lurk a lot? I think I've posted quite a lot...

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Makaikhaan, note the laugh smiley at the beginning of my post! I just had to at least make an attempt to defend myself against your slander. . I take it as a compliment that you think the only way I can acheive as much I have (Have I acheived anything?), is with the help of someone of Sasaki's calibre! I did follow Capo II, even though I wasn't involved, so I had a fair idea of what to do.

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Right.. so Rytmic was the detective and if Husar was innocent and out all night; that would mean he was the prostitute. Taketsi killed the prostitute and the Mafia killed the detective.

Why don't you just lynch Taketsi aka Privateerkev right now.

vote:privateerkev
He is obviosuly guilty, guilty guilty...

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W&F's makes me suspicious. Not much concrete. His M.O. seems to be to make a couple posts each day with reasonably logic based well established rules. It's a very effective way to play as mafia--not lurking, not bandwagoning, using logic but not exposing yourself to a slip up or inconsistency. The only thing inconsistent is his claim on day one that pk is definitely innocent and him saying today that he thinks pk is mafia.

I don't have time for a full reread on Makanye. Too many posts and it's very late, sorry. She was very good mafia in netherworld and capo as I recall. Not much attempt at case building this game that I can remember. Suspicious level of carelessness regarding voting this round i.e. "I have no idea so here's a vote".


Vote count:

Sasaki 2 (W&F, Makanye)
NorthNovas 1 (TinCow)
Omanes 1 (Curio)
Curio 1 (Mithrandir)

Very few amounts of votes, considering how many killers we have.

In my opinion:

Innocent:
Proletariat
Curio
axel
Elite Ferret
LittleGrizzly
Tincow
Sasaki

Serial killer bait:
Sasaki
Tincow
PK

WoG bait:
tiberius
bananaBob
tratorix

possible mafia:
Northnovas
W&F
Makanye
Omanes
Mithrandir
Caius

Vote:Northnovas

Seems the clear best candidate.

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Look over Husar's death again. He seemed very hard to kill.



Look at the Night 3 report again. Remember the report of two men fighting in a room. It seems there are some people who can't be automatically killed.



Maybe Husar was the first man in the above report? Would that make him the detective?

While the identity of the detective is just a guess, I am very much convinced that the detective is dead. Look at Andres's night report quote below:

Now as for what to do now, it does seem that Sasaki, TC, and I are going to be SK bait. Ironically I was the one that worked the hardest to keep Ichigo from being lynched but I don't see the SK worried about notions of "fairness".

As for Northnovas, I have not seen him act any differently than how he normally does. He just is not a very talkative person. Check his posts in other threads. I see him as being innocent.

I think everyone should give Omanes another look. Remember when we were all so gung-ho to lynch him a couple days back? And then Sigurd entered our sights and we all switched over? Well, has Omanes done anything since to alleviate our suspicion of him? TC was able to push Omanes into admitting that he was only busy that one day.

But he has been relatively quiet in here and others have said that is out of character. While NN is acting very much like NN.

vote: Omanes

new tally:

Sasaki 2 (W&F, Makanye)
NorthNovas 2 (TinCow, Sasaki)
Omanes 2 (Curio, Privateerkev)

Curio 1 (Mithrandir)

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Your intelligence never lets me down honey.

I already said why I argued against you, it was to stay alive, but noone asked why I wanted to stay alive and obviously I'm not allowed to tell, a bit of combination work on the side of the townies would be required but maybe the above quote could help a little(because I also believe Rythmic was the detective).

I'm not sure about Privateerkev being Taketsi, I wonder why you had him as out of bed but most likely innocent and me just out of bed(note that I said earlier that my denial of Sigurd's results was fake, just helping with the combining now).

Also it was not that he made me the Black Knight that was weird about Andres's writeup of my death, it was of a more grammatical nature(hint, hint).
Which also lead me to say that it eradicates the reason I had earlier to say that Prole was likely innocent, let me look for that post...

There it is, well it was a wrong guess, you have to figure out the rest for yourselves. Just a few things I wanted to highlight, maybe someone can make more out of it.

edit: Before I forget it, it's Makanyane and Haudegen, not Makanye and Haudegan...

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The suspicions about me didn't appear until after a day or 2 of inactivity and ichigo dropping my name in, i went through the reasons a page or 2 back.

im at a bit of a loose end of who to vote but i think we should leave those manfredo will/could kill until we know he's dead and off the scene

Serial killer bait:
Sasaki
Tincow
PK


so were left with
Innocent:
Proletariat
Curio
axel
Elite Ferret
LittleGrizzly


and

possible mafia:
Northnovas
W&F
Makanye
Omanes
Mithrandir
Caius


something about sasakis innocent list and posible mafia list rings true for me so i am going to vote woad & fangs

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I don't want to detract thread from analysis of Husar's post that seems like maybe a more promising lead. Re: gramatical stuff Husar's killer was only referred to as the attacker' whereas other killers in last nights write up were called 'the man' - I don't have time at moment to go back and compare with other nights...

Re: Sasaki

EDIT: hmm was trying to make sense out of what seemed to be the implied possibility that Prole had a female role as a killer - but on reflection that's not making sense with the other write ups.. :(

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I have no idea what is going on now. All I know is PK is always very chatty and seems to geniunely be helping the town and so he's off my suspect list. I also agree with Sasaki and we should not lynch someone on the 'Ichigo list'.

So for now I'm gonna take a wild guess off LittleGrizzly's list and vote:mithrandir

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I asked Andres what an investigation result on me would be. Here is the very short PM reply from Andres:

Since Sigurd was wrong about me, I assumed he was wrong about you. Sigurd quickly typed up his list right before a lynching. For reasons best known to him, he put my name down as his 3rd investigation. For all I know, it was random. But since I have contested his post, it puts everything he says into suspicion so he has had to combat me verbally for days.

I think we can finally start confirming that Sigurd was indeed Taketsi. It seems that Husar or Rythmic was the detective. And I am becoming convinced that the MiB is indeed the serial killer. The "grinning" has been a very distinctive marker in every SK post and the MiB "grinned" in the 1st post.

So, I think we can pretty much conclude that Sigurd is indeed Taketsi. He used his "list" as a way to manipulate the town. I have gotten in the way of that and have earned his "attention", probably for the remainder of the game. That's ok, my skin is thick.

Being a lightening rod for Sigurd's tender affections is just one of many services I will try to provide.

new tally:


Sasaki 2 (W&F, Makanye)
NorthNovas 2 (TinCow, Sasaki)
Omanes 2 (Curio, Privateerkev)

Curio 1 (Mithrandir)
W&F 1 (LittleGrizzly)
Mithrandir 1 (Elite Ferret)

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Well, I am sorry I might have been responsible for outing you I blame Ichigo for not cracking under pressure in the chat.
Well at first I thought he was just trying to get a glimpse of the two women behind the closed doors that night (it was the same night Prole and the prostitute shared a room). Then when I released the list, within a minute it was important that I remove PK's name from my list, but let pevergreen's stay. Sasaki's argument was that we shouldn't list innocent people.
Then nothing is heard from it until PK bring it up again out of the blue calling me a liar for having a ***** out of bed on night 3.

Notice that I didn't push him in this. I know that my watch report (let's call a spade a spade) is genuine, yet PK wants to discredit it even though only a handful of people saw it.
That he continues to deny such a miniscule thing, speaks of some agenda.
Having a look at the role description found in the first post of this thread we read:
Ok… let’s have a look at the kills on the different nights:

Night 1 – one killed = 1 hit
Night 2 – two killed = 2 hits
Night 3 – two killed and one failed attempt = 3 hits
Night 4 – three killed and one failed attempt = 4 hits
Night 5 – four killed.

This makes me strongly suspect PK. I know that I saw him out of bed on night 3. There were only 3 hits that night.
We know that even though we remove one of the mafia they have never been able to kill more than one. Ichigo caught one of them.
From night 4 there have been a steady 4 hits. And I gather from PK’s sudden defense that He might have been out investigating the first 3 nights and since used his power to kill.
It fits with the role description of Taketsi. He was also the first to bring us information of possible recruits. If more of the initial killers have been removed and we still have 4 hits… Well…

I say lynch Privateerkev now…

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the uncomfortable fact remains that Sigurd being lynched didn't result in the absence of a killer...

something that happened recently seems to have resulted in the absence of a prostitute.


and whilst its sad that those on the Ichigo list will probably be killed by the MiB eventually it doesn't mean leaving them alive to get possibly another couple of kills in - if we really think they are guilty - is a good idea.

EDIT: that was in reply to PK - hadn't seen Sigurd there...

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Sasaki is a bad vote. The only reasons cited against him are essentially that he's a good player. That ignores the fact that if he's a good player, he's good for the town when he's a townie. Lynch him based on evidence, not fear. If he's pro-town, you're destroying a major asset. So far, the only evidence I see against him is the first night block, which has already been discussed ad nauseum and I which I no longer think is a good enough reason for a vote.

For the record, I have thought that Husar was the prostitute for a few days now. Ichigo knew who the prostitute was, and there are some small elements of cooperation between their postings. In addition, Husar was attacking Proletariat in the thread just before she was blocked by the prostitute. This would also explain how Husar was 'out' on Night 1. Finally, Husar was killed last night and there was no prostitute action. Husar contacted me shortly before he died. Here is the complete PM chain I exchanged with him. Since I think he was the prostitute, it may contain useful information:

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Sigurd:

I've also noticed all three people you mentioned in your "list" are on the SK's hit list. Now I'm not saying your the SK but you seem awfully anxious to get one of the last 3 people on the SK's list, lynched. And your "list" put the spotlight on 3 of those people.

I say your Taketsi and your trying to mess us up.

If Rythmic or Husar was the detective, and the MiB is the SK, then how can I be Taketsi if you really could investigate?

Your story is full of holes Sigurd. For your story to have any chance at being true, you need for there to be more investigators than there is.

Now I know you'll point out the fact that there have been Yakuza kills since you've been lynched. But if you've noticed, the yakuza has been killing, but the number of kills per night has not been reduced. So, the yakuza has probably not been killing other mafia. Therefore, the yakuza is probably not investigating. In fact, I would guess that the yakuza "can't" investigate.

Let's look again at who you could be.

Juliette: no, Ichigo is Juliette.

Manfredo: Manfredo can only investigate if someone is, or is not, Juliette

Detective: It seems likely that Rythmic or Husar was the detective. Regardless, we now know for sure the detective is dead from the last night report. The detective was killed well after you were lynched.

MiB: There seems to be consensus that the MiB is the SK.

Taketsi: This is the logical conclusion with the information we have. Yet you now claim I am Taketsi. If I was, then how could you have been investigating?

Unless your claiming some secret investigating role for yourself.

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In my defense, I was in Missouri without internet access for all of the night phase and most of the last day phase. However, there were still 4 kills last night.

Unvote: Sasaki
because he is on the SK's list.

I believe Makanyane is innocent. Her role PM trick with EF was rather clever. I doubt a mafioso would want to prove someone innocent.

So using LittleGrizz'z list that leaves Northnovas, Omanes, Caius, and Mithrinder as good lynch choices in my opinion.

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I am not going to quote all of your statements as I am pressed for time at work. But let's take a look on some of the gems:
I have in my previous post redefined the term of my nighly actions. Let's call it watching hereafter and not confuse it with the investigation power of Carabinieri, Taketsi and Manfredo.

What kind of argument or logic is this?
unsound logic and Red Herring.

Ok.. let's see.

Detective can not kill
Juliette can not kill (dead anyway)
Prostitute can not kill
Manfredo can kill
Taketsi can kill
Gianluca and Luciano can kill but XOR.
SK aka MiB can kill

We had 4 kills last night and I have been dead a while.
Logic says I can't be one of the killers and hence not Taketsi as you propose.
The very fact that there are still 4 kills puts the role of Taketsi still alive using your logic of 'known roles only'. Therefore we can safely conclude that it is not me who is trying to confuse the town, but rather you.
This is the 'Gotta have more mafia' all over again, but this time I am CR and you are me trying to fool the town.

That Sasaki hasn't caught your reek yet, speaks of accomplice.
Come on town put at least some votes on privateerkev.

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