Well, I've never seen a settlement rebel to the faction it already belonged to. The sudden increase in public order sounds for me like the AI reacted in a common way: it lowered taxes and possibly used troops, spies and family members to raise public order. Unfortunately I can't find an article on the mechanics of spying besides this one: http://www.twcenter.net/wiki/Spy
If I remember correctly, the spy with the highest subterfuge is the dominant factor in causing unrest and all your other spies only add a relatively small amount of unrest. So if you have a very good spy revealed and killed and the remaining ones are mediocre at best, the decrease in public order will remarkably change (in addition to all other counter-spy tactics mentioned above). Can anybody direct to the "how does xy work?" threads?
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