The Study of Creating Unrest in Settlements.

[Lysandros]

Well, I've never seen a settlement rebel to the faction it already belonged to. The sudden increase in public order sounds for me like the AI reacted in a common way: it lowered taxes and possibly used troops, spies and family members to raise public order. Unfortunately I can't find an article on the mechanics of spying besides this one: http://www.twcenter.net/wiki/Spy
If I remember correctly, the spy with the highest subterfuge is the dominant factor in causing unrest and all your other spies only add a relatively small amount of unrest. So if you have a very good spy revealed and killed and the remaining ones are mediocre at best, the decrease in public order will remarkably change (in addition to all other counter-spy tactics mentioned above). Can anybody direct to the "how does xy work?" threads?

[MarcusAureliusAntoninus]

A town cannot rebel to the faction that controls it. If the faction owning the faction is the faction that the town will rebel to then the town will rebel to the rebel 100% of the time.

When public order shots up it is simply the AI lowering taxes and such.

Because of possible bonuses of taxes, garrisons, and cheaply built buildings it is almost impossible to use spies to cause a city to rebel when they are anywhere near the faction's capital. The only practical use of this tactic would be for someone trying to make AS's far east provinces rebel or such.

Also, keep in mind that adding more spies doesn't always help. There is a cap on how much unrest spies can cause and two or three spies will usually reach this cap.

[Tellos Athenaios]

*But* according RTW the chance at succesfully opening the gates for you does not have a cap.

At least: I could reach 148% chance and the like.

[konny]

At least: I could reach 148% chance and the like.

According to how chances of spying "work" in RTW, I would then suspect the gates to be closed when I attack....

[soibean]

I had this same problem in my parthian campaign, I used their starting spies and placed them in the three nearest towns. The PO fell between 20% and 5%. Next turn I look two of them are at 65% and the other is at 80%. I dont know if taxes can do that much

[PershsNhpios]

Exactly, Soibean, it hurts, doesn't it?

A great, stabbing pain.

But it doesn't matter, the capitol of the Roman people is now Patavium, which is under siege - and my spies are having Dalminion and Massalia revolt.

It seems to be a matter of luck - always keeps a couple of spies in outlying settlements of the AI factions - and if you get lucky they will rebel and severely halt progress.

It is a good way to assist your allies too, when they lose settlements.

But if anyone has any other tips, by god I would just jump with joy.

[Conqueror]

If the settlement has a different culture type than the faction that controls it, creating unrest with spies will be much easier. You can also use assassins to sabotage the PO-boosting buildings, which can cause massive unrest, although the AI is quick to repair the damage.

[PershsNhpios]

Thank you, this obviously explains why it is impossible for Roma to rebel, and why Arretium and Co. are likewise.

However, Taras rebelled without problem, and Bononia and Segesta - no closer to Rome, did no such thing - but lowering the taxes certainly makes sense.
I under-estimated the AI.

Well, this will be good if my war goes foul and they take Mediolanum - and certainly it will be of use in tampering with faraway factions who are doing well and have distant provinces.
(It will go well with my tactic of feeding their poor neighbours mnai).

However, it is agreeable then that one cannot use spies to assault the homeland.

Pity, now those short little poets are going to be rather dead, when they could have simply been expelled.

Thank you all for your answers.