2 Things I can note


1-The AI does not disband troops, if the Luso is millions in the red, they can't disband their military to recoup, and if they have no money, they don't attack, sometimes the cost of the military is so much the script can't give enough money. So you should cheat using add_money 40000 about 10 times, then give them it.
2-Use the force diplomacy mod and ask them to -Attack Carthage- sometimes this doesn't work if they're allied, but if they have enough money they sometimes attack them anyway, or they suck up rebel provinces and attack once they are large enough.