it'd be nice to see a few more pics...a side-view most importantly. but off the front-view:

the nose is broken so that could be causing some of the incongruency, but its not badly broken, and looks a bit more of a Gallic nose than an Aquiline nose, not that Caesar's was a perfect Roman nose.

the hair is interesting...he has that balding look, with the M shape to his hair, and the stuff on top trying to hold on. That contrasts nicely with the immediate post-death bust/mold, which shows him more balding, and slightly later busts which show him with more hair than either.

the skull is wide, which fits.

the ear lobes seems to fit, but some other parts of ear shape do not.

while his mouth seems decently close to other representations of Caesar, most representations on sculpture or coins capture two creases along his cheek/jowl which are not seen on the Arles find, at least not as far as I can see.

The chin and strong jaw are common features, but they're common to much Roman statuary, and its worth noting that it looks like the angle towards the back of the jaw on the Arles "Caesar" is steeper than in other representations of Caesar: that is, the side of Caesar's face at his sideburns is longer in most representations than what we see in the Arles head.