Nuclear Exchange between Iran and Israel

[Mikeus Caesar]

What i'm getting from this is that tl;dr the world as we know it is most likely going to fall to bits within the next century, possibly even the next 50 years. But with all this talk of nuclear fun, i have a question - where is our lord and master, the United States, in all of this?

[Geoffrey S]

I imagine it would be part of a "moderate" axis - Jordan, Israel and Egypt, the first and last having somehow dealt with the problems an alliance with Israel would pose for parts of its population.

Egypt, moderate? It's a practical dictatorship scared witless of the large number of religious extremists amongst its population. For the last few decades it's been practically paralyzed in trying to keep a small clique in power.

[Ironside]

Of course, the most likely scenario for an Iranian nuclear strike on Israel would be a truck or cargo container driven into Tel Aviv (comparatively little arab/palestinian presence but lots of Israelis) by a jihadi from one of the militant sects available. Even if the nuclear signature were linked to an Iranian facility, Iran would claim that the material/device had been stolen

The inevitable crackdowns in the territories would generate increased "hero" status for Hamas, Hezbollah, and whatever other group (if any) pulled off the physical attack. Since this
would increase recruiting and polarize the situation further -- both of which would enhance the power of these non-state actors -- it is very much to their benefit to carry out such a strike as soon as they can procure the materials. For them, it is win-win.

I think you severely underestimate the responce of the use of a nuke, no organisation would survive taking responsibillity. None would dare sponsor them and I suspect that most Palestinians on the street would also feel that it's one hell of an overkill (aka support dropped to zero). It's an open declaration of war, where the Israelis will have all the western world as support and the Arab world will stay very quiet.

And Iran's nuclear reputation would be severly damaged. At best (for them that is) no bombs will fall.
But still either they lie (dropping their trustworthyness to about zero) or they cannot control their nuclear material. Both cases spells the doom for any influence in the region outside pure bullying.

[JR-]

Nuclear weapons can not distinguish between Israelis and Palestinians. Eliminating Israel means eliminating Palestine.

if iran were mad-dog crazy enough to initiate a first strike, i really don't think the plight of palestinians would sway the matter either way.

[TinCow]

But with all this talk of nuclear fun, i have a question - where is our lord and master, the United States, in all of this?

If Iran launched a nuclear strike against Israel, the US would most likely declare war against it. A real declaration of war, not one of these Vietnam and Iraq presidential police action things. An unprovoked nuclear attack on Israel would also sway the vast majority of US public opinion (likely 90%+) into approval of such a war. The public may even support the re-introduction of the draft in such a situation. If the war lasted for more than a week, I would expect a full-scale mobilization in the US.

[Vladimir]

If Iran launched a nuclear strike against Israel, the US would most likely declare war against it. A real declaration of war, not one of these Vietnam and Iraq presidential police action things. An unprovoked nuclear attack on Israel would also sway the vast majority of US public opinion (likely 90%+) into approval of such a war. The public may even support the re-introduction of the draft in such a situation. If the war lasted for more than a week, I would expect a full-scale mobilization in the US.

Or unconditional talks depending on who becomes president.

[Viking]

Or unconditional talks depending on who becomes president.

Instead of two destroyed states, we'd have just one. That'd suck.

Oh well, one'd assume that Israel has got the ability go MAD anyway.

[Samurai Waki]

if iran were mad-dog crazy enough to initiate a first strike, i really don't think the plight of palestinians would sway the matter either way.

I think the Palestinians would cease to exist in Israel, Gaza, or the West Bank. I think either by extermination, or more likely getting expelled on a tragic scale, and forcing countries like Syria, Egypt, and Jordan to accept such a measure and these countries all the while being completely hamstrung by the international community.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Nuclear weapons can not distinguish between Israelis and Palestinians. Eliminating Israel means eliminating Palestine.

That would certainly settle some problems, wouldn't it?

[Papewaio]

If the war lasted for more than a week, I would expect a full-scale mobilization in the US.

Iraq:
Pop:28,221,181
"mostly broad plains; reedy marshes along Iranian border in south with large flooded areas; mountains along borders with Iran and Turkey"

Iran
Pop:65,875,223
"rugged, mountainous rim; high, central basin with deserts, mountains; small, discontinuous plains along both coasts"

So 3 times the population in mountains... I think it would be more then a week. And you would have to get China & Russia on side as India and Pakistan probably wouldn't.

[TinCow]

So 3 times the population in mountains... I think it would be more then a week. And you would have to get China & Russia on side as India and Pakistan probably wouldn't.

Oh, I wasn't trying to say that Israel or the US would defeat Iran in a week with ground forces. I'm simply talking about the reality that in an all-out nuclear exchange, the war is likely to end before much conventional warfare is involved. Any post-war occupation would definitely be messy, but the US would probably be willing to accept the costs. 9/11 alone is enough to keep support for Afghanistan relatively high to this day. A nuclear first strike by Iran would put the US public on in an unconditional victory mentality for a long, long time.