Mafia VIII: Return of the Recommencement of the Revenge of the Mafia [Concluded]

[LittleGrizzly]

I think Sasaki is a bad vote. I have yet to see one good reason for voting for him.

Im getting a flashback from andres game here, i could swear you used that exact same line... its less influential second time round

Im really not sure what to do here, i have been in the situation twice where an opportunity to lynch sasaki has come and twice i thought im not just going to vote for a reputation, twice i was wrong and should have voted for sasaki (though in Capo he wasn't mafia when the opportunity came and he didn't win)

I figure there is only 1/14.5 chance of him being mafia which is a very slim chance, but after being burnt twice i can't let it happen again, i think i would have more trust in PK further down the line so i guess it isn't just a kill sasaki vote....

Unvote EliteFerret Vote sasaki

[Ferret]

unvote:PK vote:sasaki

bandwagonning is fun

[Privateerkev]

bandwagonning is fun

I think I am the only person who voted for me who did not bandwagon.

(boy that is a confusing sentence if you think about it.)


Tally:

Sasaki: 11 (kagemusha, Ichigo, discovery1, |Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88, CR, KukriKhan, Rythmic, Sigurd Fafnesbane, Craterus, LittleGrizzly, EF)

PK: 7 (PK, Roadkill, TinCow, Sarathos, Seamus Fermanagh, peverpink, Sasaki)


Elite Ferret: 3 (Shlin28, woad&fangs, makaikhaan)

Sarathos: 2 (TevashSzat, CountArach)

LG:1 (FH)
Kagemusha: 1 (Tiberius of the Drake)
Quintus Julius Cicero: 1 (Gaius Scribonius Curio)
Shlin28: 1 (Beefy187)
makaikhaan: 1 (Andres)

[TinCow]

I think I am the only person who voted for me who did not bandwagon.

There is pretty much never any legitimate reason to vote for someone on the first day. Therefore bandwagoning on Day 1 is as acceptable a reason as any other. We're picking randomly, so no selection is empirically better or worse than the rest. Ideally, the best thing to do would be to not lynch anyone, but the rules pretty much never allow for that.

It's absurd to expect anyone to think you're innocent on Day 1 alone just based on your public posting strategy. Your attempts to make your joke seem like legitimate proof of innocence actually tends to do the opposite for me.

[Privateerkev]

It's absurd to expect anyone to think you're innocent on Day 1 alone just based on your public posting strategy. Your attempts to make your joke seem like legitimate proof of innocence actually tends to do the opposite for me.

It's absurd to think I expect it either. But with so little to go on, I hope my display helps prove my innocence regardless of the outcome. If I live, I might have a little "innocence cred". If I get lynched, I might have a little "innocence cred". Either way, I will help the town.

You better than anyone know I will not sit idle as a dead townie.


Tally:

Sasaki: 9 (Ichigo, discovery1, |Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88, CR, KukriKhan, Rythmic, Sigurd Fafnesbane, LittleGrizzly, EF)

PK: 9 (PK, Roadkill, TinCow, Sarathos, Seamus Fermanagh, peverpink, Sasaki, Fenring, kagemusha)


Elite Ferret: 3 (Shlin28, woad&fangs, makaikhaan)

Sarathos: 2 (TevashSzat, CountArach)

LG:1 (FH)
Kagemusha: 1 (Tiberius of the Drake)
Quintus Julius Cicero: 1 (Gaius Scribonius Curio)
Shlin28: 1 (Beefy187)
makaikhaan: 1 (Andres)
Andres: 1 (Craterus)

[TinCow]

PK, you're missing a very obvious point here. If you guarantee to be helpful to the town as a dead townie, you guarantee that there's no reason not to lynch you. If you're mafioso, we kill you and it's good for us. If you're townie, then we kill you and it doesn't change your ability to help. That's far better than killing a townie who will then disappear and not help us look for mafioso. You're actually making yourself an ideal first round lynch target. While that's good for the town in this game, it's a pretty bad personal strategy because it will make it easier to tell when you've got a role in other games.

[Privateerkev]

PK, you're missing a very obvious point here. If you guarantee to be helpful to the town as a dead townie, you guarantee that there's no reason not to lynch you. If you're mafioso, we kill you and it's good for us. If you're townie, then we kill you and it doesn't change your ability to help. That's far better than killing a townie who will then disappear and not help us look for mafioso. You're actually making yourself an ideal first round lynch target. While that's good for the town in this game, it's a pretty bad personal strategy because it will make it easier to tell when you've got a role in other games.

That is exactly the argument I am making. (But I think you said it better)

I have not tried to save myself from this lynch. Quite the opposite.

As for personal strategy, I can always act different in future games. This is my first time as a townie and I want to try this strategy out. If it doesn't work, I'll simply not do it again.

For me, trying different posting strategies is part of the fun.

[Andres]

However, I have never found Day 1 comments to be of much use in finding mafia. Since truly random and joke votes are acceptable, there is really no way for a mafioso to look suspicious on the first vote unless they make an absurd error. 2 votes each on 15 different people would not give me any more information than the current double-bandwagons, simply because we accept a complete lack of reasoning as acceptable on any vote. Every time I've tried to find something of value in Day 1 comments, I've failed or been completely wrong. That's not to say that I ignore them, but it certainly limits the utility of the analysis. On Day 1, I think I actually do more harm by analyzing the posts too much than I do by voting randomly or without reason.

Sigurd made himself suspicious in round 1 in Star Wars mafia and was eventually lynched because of his behaviour in round 1 and the pressure put on him round 2...

He was mafia in that game

[TinCow]

I haven't read Star Wars Mafia. What did he do that put up the flag on round 1?

[Kralizec]

vote: PrivateerKev

Because I don't buy his reasoning, and none of the others (save maybe Sasaki) seem suspicious as of yet.

[Kagemusha]

Unvote and Vote :Privaterkeev This could be just a bold mafia tactics from your part, besides i havent had the chance to bandwagon yet.

[Craterus]

It's Sasaki 10 - 9 PK

I'd kind of like both to be lynched. Ah well, good turnout of voters

[Andres]

Are we seriously discussing the validity of somebody's reasoning for voting himself?

*sigh*

Of course PK is joking and of course his nonsensical reasoning doesn't clear him nor does it make him guilty.

Why are you guys so serious about this?

There is pretty much never any legitimate reason to vote for someone on the first day. Therefore bandwagoning on Day 1 is as acceptable a reason as any other. We're picking randomly, so no selection is empirically better or worse than the rest. Ideally, the best thing to do would be to not lynch anyone, but the rules pretty much never allow for that.

The picking of a lynch target on day 1 is in fact indeed pretty much ad random.

But that doesn't mean that day 1 isn't as good a day to find mafia as any other day. The more discussion we have, the more posts and the more points of view we have and the more material we can analyse.

Bandwagoning, is not an acceptable reason for voting somebody. Also, if we place 10+ votes on one particular player, the mafiosi won't join the discussion or will simply jump on the bandwagon, making jokes like all the rest of us.

If we keep 2 or 3 votes on e.g. 8 or so players, combined with some vote switching instead however, then more players run a real risk of getting lynched. A mafioso tied with 5 players having two votes while one other player has 3 votes will feel pressure and might start to talk and make a slip-up.

We won't get useful material on Day 1 with 10 or more votes without reason on one particular player

EDIT: or two particular players for that matter. Now we are focusing on 2 out of 38 suspects and we're letting 36 others of the hook...

[Craterus]

Andres, you're right.

unvote: Sasaki, vote: Andres

[TinCow]

I understand your point, Andres, and agree to a certain extent. However, I have never found Day 1 comments to be of much use in finding mafia. Since truly random and joke votes are acceptable, there is really no way for a mafioso to look suspicious on the first vote unless they make an absurd error. 2 votes each on 15 different people would not give me any more information than the current double-bandwagons, simply because we accept a complete lack of reasoning as acceptable on any vote. Every time I've tried to find something of value in Day 1 comments, I've failed or been completely wrong. That's not to say that I ignore them, but it certainly limits the utility of the analysis. On Day 1, I think I actually do more harm by analyzing the posts too much than I do by voting randomly or without reason.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I understand your point, Andres, and agree to a certain extent. However, I have never found Day 1 comments to be of much use in finding mafia. Since truly random and joke votes are acceptable, there is really no way for a mafioso to look suspicious on the first vote unless they make an absurd error. 2 votes each on 15 different people would not give me any more information than the current double-bandwagons, simply because we accept a complete lack of reasoning as acceptable on any vote. Every time I've tried to find something of value in Day 1 comments, I've failed or been completely wrong. That's not to say that I ignore them, but it certainly limits the utility of the analysis. On Day 1, I think I actually do more harm by analyzing the posts too much than I do by voting randomly or without reason.

They often are very useful. But the point is if you just bandwagon carelessly then the game hasn't really started. It doesn't start until people make cases seriously. Tomorrow will still be day 1.

[shlin28]

I figure there is only 1/14.5 chance of him being mafia which is a very slim chance, but after being burnt twice i can't let it happen again, i think i would have more trust in PK further down the line so i guess it isn't just a kill sasaki vote....

It is 1 in 18 actually... Try to make it sound as though the town actually has a chance in lynching the mafia? when you know for fact that the mafia is you yourself... I am onto you Mr. AFIA!

FoS LittleGrizzly

Unvote: EF

Will figure out who to bandwagon later

[GeneralHankerchief]

There was a question a few pages back about double lynches. In the event of a tie I'll call a revote between the top vote-getters.

If everybody votes "abstain" then I will have no choice but to WoG the person who started the trend.

[LittleGrizzly]

It is 1 in 18 actually...

lol my maths is a bit off today, i was thinking 39 players in total (but thats including me twice) i was including the 2 dead players, one of them could have been mafia, so yeah 1 in 18 chance pretty much assuming the 2 killed were townies...

[shlin28]

Why would mafia kill mafia?

Logic wins again

Edit: Even if it was 39, it still wont be 1/14.5, it would be 1/19.5... FoS LittleGrizzly

[LittleGrizzly]

Edit: Even if it was 39, it still wont be 1/14.5, it would be 1/19.5... FoS LittleGrizzly

yeah like i said my maths is a bit off today, for some reason i halved 29 instead of 39

Both the mafia now each other, seems a bit obvious now it didn't occur to me when i made the post though...

[shlin28]

Bah, 30 minutes till end of phase, might as well Vote: LittleGrizzly , I'm onto you you mafioso

[Privateerkev]

I only regret that I have but one life to lose for my town.

Tally:

Sasaki: 9 (Ichigo, discovery1, |Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88, CR, KukriKhan, Rythmic, Sigurd Fafnesbane, LittleGrizzly, EF)
PK: 9 (PK, Roadkill, TinCow, Sarathos, Seamus Fermanagh, peverpink, Sasaki, Fenring, kagemusha)

Elite Ferret: 2 (woad&fangs, makaikhaan)
Sarathos: 2 (TevashSzat, CountArach)
LG:2 (FH, Shlin28)

Kagemusha: 1 (Tiberius of the Drake)
Quintus Julius Cicero: 1 (Gaius Scribonius Curio)
Shlin28: 1 (Beefy187)
makaikhaan: 1 (Andres)
Andres: 1 (Craterus)
woad&fangs: 1 (Kommodus)