U.S. Elections 2008: General Elections -- Analysis and Commentary

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Assuming that Kukri will close the primaries thread and begin anew with a unified thread on the General elections in the Fall, I will jump in and start such a unified thread with the following analysis.


The goal of the post is to establish the analytical basis for the following prognosticative statement:

Barack Hussein Obama will be elected President of the United States


As most Backroomers are aware, the USA apportions the 538 votes in the electoral college – the votes that actually elect a President – among the 50 states and District of Columbia based upon representation in Congress with each state receiving a number of electors equal to its total representation in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Thus each state has a minimum of three electors. In 49 of these locales, ALL of a state’s electors are required to vote for the candidate receiving a plurality of votes in that state. The other two – Maine and Nebraska – assign electors by Congressional district with the electors representing the states senators going to the candidate receiving the plurality of votes in that state. These are the only states wherein – barring a “faithless elector” – a split in electoral vote may occur. A candidate receiving a majority of these electoral votes (270) is elected to the Presidency.

Based on Presidential results since the end of the Reagan era, informed by the issues/themes discovered in the nomination process, we can make a fair estimate of the likely electoral vote totals that will result from this fall’s general election.

By Region:

New England [65] (CT-7, ME-4, MA-12, NH-4, NY-31, RI-4, VT-3): McCain = 4; Obama = 61.

A Dem stronghold for decades, only New Hampshire might vote for John McCain – they like his maverick style there and he’s received lots of crossover votes in both primaries he’s campaigned in there. The rest will vote for Obama, though his margin in Maine may be closer than Kerry’s in 2004.

Mid Atlantic [65] (DE –3, DC-3, MD-10, NJ-15, PA-21, VA-13): McCain = 21; Obama = 44.

This area, except for Virginia, has usually been a Dem stronghold. VA has changed a lot in recent years with the northern part of the state growing and growing more liberal politically. Moreover, some of the religious right voters – Pat Roberts has his HQ here – may not be dedicated enough to McCain to actually go to the polls. On the other hand, Obama’s weaker showing among “Reagan Democrats” might lose him Erie and Pittsburgh and prevent him from repeating Kerry’s win in PA – and could even give McCain an outside hope in NJ. My assessment is that Obama takes VA narrowly relying on his VEEP nominee Mark Warner, holds NJ, but loses a close one to McCain in PA.

South [142] (NC-15, SC-8, GA-15, FL-27, KY-8, TN-11, AL-9, MS-6, AR-6, LA-9, TX-34): McCain = 133; Obama = 15.

The South has been THE stronghold for the GOP for most of the last 4 decades. McCain will not command the numbers Bush did in the South – he’s too liberal for this region’s social-Republicanism and Borders first crowd – but enough will back him to avoid a Dem president to secure most of these states for McCain. Obama will bring more Black voters to the polls than anyone has ever seen and 97% of them will vote Obama, but it won’t be enough except in Louisiana and Mississippi. McCain will tap either Florida’s governor or a southern conservative as the VEEP nominee for the GOP and that will keep him in play. McCain will not win resoundingly in many of these states, but he’ll be first past the post. Obama, who is weaker among Hispanics than McCain and will lose some Jewish votes over the Wright scandal and Cuban votes by not being anti-Castro enough, will lose the crucial swing state of Florida.

West and SouthWest [105] (AK-3, AZ-10, CA-55, HI-4, OR-7, NM-5, NV-5, UT-5, WA-11):
McCain = 18; Obama = 32; ? = 55, with a very slight edge to Obama for them.

While much of the West Coast is a Dem lock with Obama at the top of the ticket (WA, OR, NV, HI), McCain can rest easy about Alaska and Utah and will probably not be threatened too much in his home state of Arizona – even though AZ has been a swing state in recent years. New Mexico is very much in play this year and – despite what many pundits may think – I think that California may be in play as well. McCain, as a liberal Republican with better support among Hispanics than Obama, may be able to repeat Ford’s narrow win over Carter in California. New Mexico will probably go Dem again this year – Bush wasn’t their preference in 2004 so much as they thought even less of Kerry. Obama takes that one in a squeaker.

The Plains [43] (CO-9, ID-4, KS-6, MT-3, NE-4+1, ND-3, OK-7, SD-3, WY-3): McCain = 42; Obama = 1.

Obama is strong in Iowa, and I think this will give him the edge in Omaha so that he picks up one vote in NE. I think he misses narrowly in Colorado and McCain runs the table for the rest – not as decisively as a true conservative would have, but Obama country it is not. Looks good on a map for John McCain, but Illinois and Michigan counter it neatly enough in the Electoral College.

Middle America [112] (IA-7, IL-21, IN-11, MI-17, MN-10, MO-11, OH-20, WV-5, WI-10): McCain = 47; Obama = 65

Lots of swing states out here and this will be THE electoral battleground. Indiana will remain a GOP stronghold, holding their noses and pulling the lever for McCain. Illinois, of course, can’t produce enough down state votes to counter the Chicago acclamation of Obama, so he wins this readily and takes Iowa, where McCain has never spent much of his effort. I predict that McCain holds WV, OH, and MO by siphoning off blue collar democrats. McCain will waste money in Michigan, where he’s always had fun in the primaries, but the GOP is fooling itself to think of it as a swing state. MN and WI are borderline, but Obama’s charm will win out in both. Obama will not do as well in this region as he – or Oprah – hope.

Thus far, I make it: McCain = 265 & Obama 218 and Obama in a narrow lead for the other 55, so.

If McCain can upset in Cali or New Mexico, this would change.


What say you?

[Marshal Murat]

Fair assessment overall;
but the Vice-Presidential Candidates will be key.
It's an open secret that both Presidential Candidates might, well, kick the bucket. McCain's too old, and Obama's too Kennedy. So the Vice-Presidential candidates will definitely receive some serious scrutiny.

With that in mind, Obama has to choose between Clinton and Warner. Clinton has alot of the 'blue-collar' voters, working class, the "core" of the Dem party. That choice would seem logical, heal the 'wounds' in the party as it were. She might even draw the Hispanic vote from McCain. However, that ticket would definitely drive some serious wedges into families of the South, and maybe West. It would be one of the most liberal tickets, and the idea of it sends shivers up my spine.
Warner, on the other hand, has military experience, and a Dem, he would be able to deliver the state of Virginia more successfully than Clinton. His stances, while liberal, are more Southern friendly. He backs up Obama with actual combat experience, countering McCain's 'Nam. He can appeal to the 'working class' Irish-Scots of the South more effectively than Obama or Clinton could. He could make deeper inroads in the South than Carter, the better candidate probably.

McCain could choose Crist, but that would be cementing a state he probably already has. His best choice would probably be Romney. The Republicans are less split about McCain and Romney. Obama will be the greater evil than McCain's lesser liberalism. They will unite, and Romney can give McCain a fighters chance in the New England North, and maybe Michigan. McCain's VP should be more conservative, but I don't think a Southerner would cut it.

Statewise:
California - I think they're going for Obama on this one. McCain has the liberal 'cred' and attract Hispanic vote. But his continued war advocacy will probably drive the bleeding hearts of San Francisco into Obamas camp.

Virginia - McCain probably. With sooo much federal works and military bases, McCain has a strong chance, and unless Warner goes for Obama, then McCain can probably clinch this state.

Miss. and LA - I think McCain will probably overpower the Obama camp here. Despite the high probability of African-American turnout, Mississippi and Louisiana are still conservative. The Dems they elect, are conservative, and McCain's policies are liberal and conservative mix to appeal to Southerners.

New Mexico - McCain, he's got the Hispanic voters (or some of them), and the rest will probably sway his way more than Obama.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Excellent analysis, Seamus. My thoughts:

PA is not going for McCain. It was called a battleground state in 2004 and Kerry won easily. The voters there were more likely to vote GOP then than they are now, and Obama is a stronger candidate for Kerry. IMHO, the pundits should move PA out of the swing state category until the Republicans there do something worthy. And Specter winning another election doesn't count.

So if we put PA (21) into the Obama category, then he doesn't really have to worry about New Mexico. Cali. will also be safer than what you think, I believe.

Veep is also another factor. If McCain picks Crist he'll take Florida but do worse in the Bible Belt states. If he picks Romney then he might steal Michigan and solidify NH, but Florida will then be up for grabs. On the Democratic side, Hillary would help Obama immensely, but will she take it? Obama could pick Warner solely on Virginia but I doubt he needs it - it's been trending Democratic recently.

About a week ago, Bob Novak did a mock election and had McCain winning 270-268. I figure if a guy (and a website) that conservative has it that close, Obama's got to like his chances.

[Marshal Murat]

I don't think Florida is so much a swing state. The most interested in Obama are college students and upper-class Dems.

McCain has northern Florida, the Cubans (against Castro), old people (he just has to keep them alive), and most of the white vote.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

My prediction: They tie 268-268, and nancy pelosi becomes president.

[Crazed Rabbit]

On the issues:

Gun Control. Oh yes, that happy issue.
While Religious voters will be apathetic about McCain, gun owners will see a clear choice.

Obama is, I think, the most anti-gun candidate I know of in the history of the USA.

McCain is more pro-gun than George Bush, who said he'd sign the new assault weapons ban into law if it was renewed back in '04.

Obama put in writing that he wanted to ban handguns and have severe restrictions on gun rights - the NRA is going to pound him for that and so many other things. Growing up being a liberal in Chicago politics won't endear you to gun owners.

A single issue, but one that gun-rights groups can trumpet very loudly - especially considering the dem majority in Congress. There are four million members of the NRA, and tens of millions of gun owners.

So we have a candidate more pro-gun than any president save Reagan, and one more anti-gun than any since ... I couldn't say. If this issue is played right it could help McCain in close states with high gun ownership. It might push NH solidly to McCain.

On the state by state, I might give LA to McCain - conservatism is having a resurgence there (though conservatism and McCain are not one and the same). It'd be fun to have CA in play - with Arnold helping out McCain it certainly could be a battleground state.

CR

[drone]

Virginia is not going to Obama. We may be shifting towards the Democrats, but only moderates need apply. McCain's military service will go far here, and Obama's liberal voting history will ultimately kill his chances in this state.

Unfortunately, I also think that the Bradley effect is a very real thing, and is going to rear it's head in November. A lot of states that would probably go Democrat are going to go McCain. Add to this the fact that the DNC will be involved, I'm sure they will screw up big-time between now and election day. I'm predicting a medium level landslide for McCain. The Dems will gain more seats in Congress though, so it won't be too bad. Deadlock for the win, and with leaders that will actually work with each other.

While I like the idea of this thread, it might be premature, the old one was up to the conventions. I'm sure Hillary is going thrash around for a little bit longer.

[Marshal Murat]

Clinton reminds me of my first time fishing...

She's still got spirit, but after swinging her around and then thrashing her against the ground, she'll slowly stop jerking in five hours.

[CountArach]

I pretty much agree with all of the states you put down, but I would change Louisiana and North Carolina around. That's about it though. Also I don't think there is any way that California is going to be a swing state. McCain simply won't be able to afford to advertise there, especially not against the fund-raising machine that is Barack. So my prediction for Electoral Votes (Very early, I know...) is:

Obama with 279 EVs and a large win in the popular vote (Considering that even in the south he is going to lose by a lot less than Democrats traditionally have).

[seireikhaan]

My view on the alleged 'battleground states', as the pundits like to call them.

Pennsylvania- I don't think this'll be as close as people think, I believe Obama will, with 5 months of campaigning with what I'm assuming will be a unified party, will beat McCain fairly comfortably.

Virginia- Probably will depend on veeps. If Obama picks either the senator or governor, he's got a good shot. Otherwise, I think it'll narrowly go to McCain.

North Carolina- I think Obama will win this state by a small margin, thanks to mobilizing the large collegiate populations in the state, as well as the relatively high African American population.

Florida- I think this'll probably go to McCain, unless some sort of miracle happens. He's going to have very strong support from the Cuban population for his fopo experience and stances towards the Castros, as well as the other Florida natives who sympathize with them. I don't think he even needs Frist to win it.

New Mexico- I'm going out on a limb and I'm going to say this goes Obama. He's stronger than Kerry was in '04, when the state narrowly went red. Additionally, I'm willing to bet the state might very well have some buyer's remorse after putting Bush in, even if McCain is very much NOT Bush.

Colorado- I'm gonna put this in the Obama category, by a very slim margin. Frankly, I think it could go either way, but I think Obama will barely pull it out. Can't put it to anything more than a gut instinct, though.

California(mostly in response to Seamus)- I think this'll stay blue. There are simply too many bleeding hearts out there, as well as the considerable appeal Obama' s "rock star-esque" appeal will have to the southern California crowd. It might be closer than last time, but still relatively large margin. McCain's appeal will certainly be more effective than Bush ever could be, but I just don't see it being enough to overcome what has become an almost built in advantage for the dems.

Oregon- I've heart this one mentioned before, but I'm going to call this for Obama. West coast liberalism, combined with the general feeling of being fed up with Republicans, I think will land it in the democratic camp.

Iowa- My home state went for Bush last time, but I'm going to call it for Obama. People in Iowa quite like him for the most part.

Wisconsin- I'm going to say this will go for Obama. Its got similar makeup to Iowa, but with larger urban and collegiate centers, so I think they'll break for him.

Michigan- I'm going to say that Michigan will go for McCain, narrowly. I think the gaffe with the vote count will cost Obama just enough to cost him this state. Of course, if McCain picks Romney for his running mate, this should make delevering Michigan a bit easier.

New Hampshire- Rather curiously, this state really seems to like McCain, and he likely owes his entire nomination to the New Hampshire-ites. I think he'll campaign long and hard here, pressing his bi-partisanship, and win a moderate victory over Obama.

Ohio- This will be really close, but I think Obama will win in Ohio. The state as a whole, I think has been hit hard enough economically during the last 8 years that they're not going to be quite ready to hand the reigns over to another Republican, even, as I stated earlier, if McCain isn't Bush by any stretch of the imagination. Obama will need to get some help, however, from Hillary and John Edwards on the stump to convince some of the lower income folks to turn out for him, though. I think it'll happen, however.

Missouri- This will be really, really close, I believe. The state's a bit of a crossroads, with some large urban centers that will likely turn out for Obama, and some of the smaller areas as well, for the same reason that Iowan's, Wisconsinites, and Minnisotans have. However, it also has some of the more traditional 'southern conservatism' which is far more likely to turn out for McCain. I'm going to call this a really, really close McCain victory right now.


The way my map turns out, I've got an Obama victory over McCain, 287-251.

However, there are a few wild cards that might end up playing a big role, hypothetically:

1) Reverend Jeremiah Wright has multiple tirades over the course of the next couple months, and the conservative 527 groups hammer and hammer away at the issue, dissolving people's trust in Obama.

2) Social conservatives decide to thumb their nose at McCain's more liberal agenda, and stay home away from the polls on a massive, state by state basis, particularly in the South, paving the way for potential Obama victories in states like Mississipi and Loiusiana.

3) Obama's grassroots campaign and fundraising efforts continue their meteroric pace, far outshooting McCain, who's having a relatively hard time raising funds and support for his campaign. If McCain doesn't do something to energize his party, he might just get spent do death by Obama.

4) The Democratic party fails to reconcile differences raised during the extraoardinarily long primary season. Obama fails to bring in Reagan democrats, who break for the moderate leaning McCain. Obama ends up getting trounced, unable mobilize what is a traditional base in many states for the Democratic party.


And here's a fun little sight to play around with the states a bit to see what different scenarios might end up as.

[KukriKhan]

While I like the idea of this thread, it might be premature, the old one was up to the conventions. I'm sure Hillary is going thrash around for a little bit longer.

We'll run them concurrently for now. "The older one" we'll keep alive until one or the other Dem concedes. Although the TV pundit-class has declared the contest "over" as of yesterday, as of 0600 PDT today, I haven't heard a concession speech. This contest could still go until the August convention, and courts might get involved, since there's money as well as future jobs, at stake.

[CountArach]

We'll run them concurrently for now. "The older one" we'll keep alive until one or the other Dem concedes. Although the TV pundit-class has declared the contest "over" as of yesterday, as of 0600 PDT today, I haven't heard a concession speech. This contest could still go until the August convention, and courts might get involved, since there's money as well as future jobs, at stake.

Or not!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/05/us...ss&oref=slogin

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will endorse Senator Barack Obama on Saturday, bringing a close to her 17-month campaign for the White House, aides said. Her decision came after Democrats urged her Wednesday to leave the race and allow the party to coalesce around Mr. Obama.

Yay!!!!

[DemonArchangel]

My prediction: They tie 268-268, and nancy pelosi becomes president.

NO! NO! THAT CAN'T BE!!!!

[KukriKhan]

Or not!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/05/us...ss&oref=slogin



Yay!!!!

If that happens (some other sources predict a Friday concession; still others predict a 'fight to the finish'), we'll figure out whether and how to consolidate our backroom US election coverage, so that we don't have 5 new topics popping up daily, essentially about the same thing (the Nov 08 US election).

Also note that Ron Paul has also never issued a concession statement afaik, so technically, the Repub nomination is also up for grabs, despite the media annointing.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

NO! NO! THAT CAN'T BE!!!!

Our election system is strange

[woad&fangs]

I don't know why but I found this video to be hilarious.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/...74371#24974371

[Seamus Fermanagh]

NO! NO! THAT CAN'T BE!!!!

It cannot -- as Sasaki-san is aware.

The Electors shall meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; -- the President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted; -- The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. [And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President. --]* The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

Emphasis added.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Right, but there can also be a tie in the house since there are 50 states, at which point the voting would go to the senate to select the vice-president (who would become president). The senate can also tie (current vp can't vote), at which point the speaker of the house becomes president.

[FactionHeir]

So is this why Hillary wants to be the VP candidate?

[Lemur]

Fox News and Michelle Malkin attack Obama and make a complete and utter mess of it. Very amusing. It's going to be interesting watching various partisan organs attempting old-style smears against both McCain and Obama. I don't think any of them are going to get the kind of traction they would have gotten four years ago.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Eh, the guy raggin' on Fox was annoying. I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP attack squad managed to screw up the simple task of showing people Obama's just a reheated version of old liberals (unemployment caused by those dastardly foreigners, etc.). Have you seen the old Jimmy Carter commercial about hope and change?

I want to know where Obama gets off blaming anyone but Congress for the vast increase in gas prices since they took over Congress, though. Sounds like that could backfire.

I wonder how effective the dem's "McCain is Bush part 3" will be.

CR

[Lemur]

I think the "McCain = Bush" meme will be as unsuccessful as the "Obama = Most Librul Evar" meme will be. Both Obama and McCain are self-evidently decent men, and the usual Rove/Atwater tactics are in trouble.

Meanwhile, file this one under dude, please calm down:

Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.), son of the one-time presidential contender, said Obama’s victory overwhelmed him.

“I cried all night. I’m going to be crying for the next four years,” he said. “What Barack Obama has accomplished is the single most extraordinary event that has occurred in the 232 years of the nation’s political history. ... The event itself is so extraordinary that another chapter could be added to the Bible to chronicle its significance.”

[FactionHeir]

I think the "McCain = Bush" meme will be as unsuccessful as the "Obama = Most Librul Evar" meme will be. Both Obama and McCain are self-evidently decent men, and the usual Rove/Atwater tactics are in trouble.

Not according to this

[Lemur]

Well, we'll see, FactionHeir. I'm inclined to believe that a combination of factors will minimize the B.S. in this election cycle. As I said, both Obama and McCain are self-evidently reasonable, non-extremist men. Neither is an ideologue. Painting either man as an extremist is going to be a labor of hate.

Not that people won't try. The attacks against Obama have been much more hysterical and unhinged than the attacks on McCain so far, but hey, the election is young. Here are some great examples:

"I have said publicly, and I will again, that unless he proves me wrong, he is a Marxist," - Tom DeLay

"U2's 'Beautiful Day' is playing at the Barack Obama rally. No Americans write music Obama likes?" - Greg Pollowitz

"Did the Obama rally begin with the Soviet National Anthem?" - Hugh Hewitt

"Your best friends stink. You are surrounded by scum. We don't know anybody good in your life." - Dennis Prager

[King Jan III Sobieski]

I think Chuck Baldwin will go all the way!!!

[CountArach]

I think Chuck Baldwin will go all the way!!!

No way! Cynthia McKinney has it in the bag!

[Crazed Rabbit]

I think the "McCain = Bush" meme will be as unsuccessful as the "Obama = Most Librul Evar" meme will be. Both Obama and McCain are self-evidently decent men, and the usual Rove/Atwater tactics are in trouble.

Meanwhile, file this one under dude, please calm down:

Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.), son of the one-time presidential contender, said Obama’s victory overwhelmed him.

“I cried all night. I’m going to be crying for the next four years,” he said. “What Barack Obama has accomplished is the single most extraordinary event that has occurred in the 232 years of the nation’s political history. ... The event itself is so extraordinary that another chapter could be added to the Bible to chronicle its significance.”

Makes you wonder how his dad raised him.

I think smears trying to make Obama seem sleazy or even... *gasp*... Clintonesque won't go far, but the GOP might have some luck convincing people he's just another politician, not the Messiah.

I was reading about a possible choice of the gov of Alaska, a staunch, effective, conservative woman, as McCain's VP. Wouldn't go far in the way of helping win close states, though.

CR

[PBI]

Why is anybody listening to what Tom DeLay has to say? Isn't he a crook?

But mind you, over here we have Lord Levy sticking his oar in at every opportunity. Some people have no shame.

[FactionHeir]

Obama "winning" his Illinois seat was pretty underhanded and old style politics you could say.

[Crazed Rabbit]

The republicans in a California primary choose principled conservatism over the pork lovers that have overtaken the Congressional GOP:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1212...n_commentaries

House Republicans clearly suffer from a form of split personality. Last month, Minority Leader John Boehner unveiled a series of reform proposals he dubbed "Change You Deserve." But a few days later, over half of his GOP caucus voted for a farm bill full of pork-barrel projects.

Pragmatic Republicans who voted for the farm bill defend themselves privately by claiming GOP voters send mixed signals, saying they want smaller government while also pressing for federal largesse. But is that still the case following the egregious spending excesses of the Bush years, and the victory of John McCain, an antipork candidate, in presidential primaries?

This week, a GOP primary for an open House seat in California featured a major clash between pragmatic and principled conservatism. The clear winner in the Sacramento-area district was state Sen. Tom McClintock, a politician popular with grassroots voters for his principled campaign for governor in the 2003 recall election won by Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Maybe the GOP will get the ******* clue that people want conservatism, dangit, not pork.

Also, the RCP electoral college map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

CR