Unrest itself should remain the steady once youve held a territory for a few years. The only reason it would go up is governor's traits and enemy spies. Quintus' suggestion of a spy in every town is a great idea if you can afford to do it.
On the other hand public order is affected by a whole host of things, most of which im sure you are well aware of. But in my experience suddenly changing to riots tends to be caused by.
1. Changing tax levels
2. Garrison size
3. Moving the capital
4. Population growth over time = more squalor
5. Knocking down that annoying wonderous temple which was giving you a culture penalty...
6. The governor dying / unable to return to the settlement in a single turn after fighting some rebels
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