It's always a possibility, of course. I suppose it's a hard thing to accurately test...
For what it's worth, experience chevrons - while they do up the defense skill and melee skill values on the unit card - do not increase a unit's missile attack value either, yet they have been proven beyond any shade of doubt to increase missile kills (that is, for bows and crossbows - the quirkiness of gunmen rankswitching mechanisms back then made it hard to get reliable data IIRC). Wether it was caused by higher accuracy, higher lethality, better concentration of shots/volleys or whatnot has never been conclusively found AFAIK. Couldn't provide you with a direct link to the research post I'm thinking of, but search is your friend ;). Siege engines also fire much more accurately with XP, but their unit card doesn't show it.
With that in mind, it's not alltogether improbable that a weapon upgrade could make a difference without showing it on the unit card.
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